Technical & Derivatives Report
March 07, 2018
Sensex (33317) / Nifty (10249)
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Yesterday, the gap up opening was very much in-line with a
strong overnight recovery seen in the US markets. However, the
kind of bounce back was expected seemed to have adjusted in
the gap up move. During the entire first half, Nifty consolidated
around the 10400 mark; however, the second half turned out to
be extremely brutal as we witnessed a complete nosedive to fall
more than 200 points from morning high. Eventually, the Nifty
ended the session well below the 10300 mark.
Index traded in a corridor of uncertainty throughout the first half;
but, things became quite clear after breaching previous day’s
low 10323. This triggered massive sell off in the market and as a
result, we witnessed a sharp fall of another 100 points within no
time. Now, Nifty has closed well below the trend line breakdown
point of 10300, confirming further weakness towards the daily
200-SMA placed around 10140. Going ahead, any bounce back
towards 10300 - 10360 would be seen as a selling opportunity.
Going ahead, 24600
-
24800 would now be seen as
This goes well with our near term directional view; but, previous
immediate hurdles. Having said that it would be very
interesting to see how PSU banking basket behaves as the
day’s Bank Nifty’s close whipsawed us a bit to expect a small
‘Nifty PSU bank’ index has closed around its major support
relief rally. But, as we just highlighted, below previous day’s low,
level of 2928. Hence, traders need to keep a close eye on this
there were no doubts and we had to resume to our recent
development as well.
cautious stance. The banking index too confirmed its breakdown
and is now poised for further weakness towards 24200 -
24000 levels. Hence, the possibility of some bounce back has
Key Levels
now been negated.
Support 1 - 10204
Resistance 1 - 10300
Support 2 - 10140
Resistance 2 - 10360
Nifty Bank Outlook - (24448)
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Post-closing near the '200 DMA' support on Monday, the Nifty
Bank index opened gap up in yesterday's session. However, the
index hardly witnessed any follow-up momentum and
consolidated in a range for most of the session. While the bulls
kept hopes of a probable pullback, the index started correcting
sharply post 2 p.m. and breached the support zone of 24750-
24800. The panic was then clearly seen in last hour of trade as
the breach of the mentioned support indicated a resumption of
the correction which we have been witnessing since past few
weeks now. Currently, the bears seem to have an upper hand
and hence, traders should stay cautious and avoid any bottom
fishing. Positional charts indicate a higher probability of this
corrective move in the Nifty Bank index extending towards 24200-
24000 range in near term. On the flipside, 24600 followed by
24800 would now act as immediate resistance.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 24200
Resistance 1 - 24600
Support 2 - 24000
Resistance 2 - 24800
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 07, 2018
Comments
Nifty Vs OI
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 5.45 %
BankNifty futures open interest has increased by 7.60%
as market closed at 10249.25 levels.
The Nifty February future closed with a discount of 0.70
points against a premium of 6.75 points in last trading
session. The March series closed at a premium of 32.30
points.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 15.40 to 16.24. At the
same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased from
1.22 to 1.14 level.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are SUZLON, GRANULES, SREINFRA,
TORNTPHARM and ORIENTBANK.
Views
FIIs were net buyers in cash market segment to the tune
of Rs. 620 crores. While, they also bought in index
OI Gainers
futures of Rs. 511 crores with good amount of rise in
OI
PRICE
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
open interest, indicating formation of long positions in
MCDOWELL-N
2424000
14.98
3029.25
-5.20
previous trading session.
TORNTPHARM
328500
14.46
1345.95
-0.87
In index options front, they bought of Rs. 1028 crores
PEL
2140878
8.83
2369.50
-3.05
with rise in open interest. As far as Nifty options activities
CANBK
14193600
7.00
267.95
-4.58
are concerned, we saw good amount of build-up in
ALBK
18530000
6.19
48.80
-3.26
10200-10600 call options; followed by unwinding in
BANKINDIA
27168000
6.02
103.50
-6.71
10700 strike price. On the other side, 10000 and 10200
TVSMOTOR
3793000
5.60
644.40
-3.80
put options added decent amount of fresh positions;
RELINFRA
11780600
5.49
433.35
-0.38
resulting highest open interest in put option shifting lower
to 10000 strike price. However, maximum concentration
in call options remains intact in 10700 strike.
OI Losers
In last few sessions, we saw index correcting along
OI
PRICE
with decent amount of short formation. Post last
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
expiry, for the first time we saw short positions forming
NIITTECH
1200000
-13.33
859.35
-2.20
in the rate sensitive index. Stronger hands rolled over
IGL
4911500
-11.80
310.80
1.59
majority of their index futures shorts to March series
HEXAWARE
4086000
-11.15
344.90
-2.44
and they continued adding fresh short positions too.
MRPL
6075000
-9.58
115.75
1.85
However, they were buyers in index and stock futures
INFRATEL
9521700
-9.43
331.95
-0.11
in yesterday’s session. Now, their index futures ‘Long
FORTIS
40337500
-8.29
161.35
-1.13
Short ratio’ is at 46%, which certainly does not bode
PAGEIND
38350
-6.92
20989.45
-3.26
well for the Bulls. Considering the above data points,
KPIT
10656000
-6.11
215.65
-2.13
we expect market to remain under pressure going
ahead
Put-Call Ratio
Historical Volatility
SCRIP
PCR-OI
PCR-VOL
SCRIP
HV
NIFTY
1.14
0.79
ADANIENT
58.63
BANKNIFTY
0.66
0.88
MCDOWELL-N
42.99
PNB
0.88
0.51
BANKINDIA
66.25
SUNPHARMA
0.43
0.50
CONCOR
33.64
FORTIS
0.86
0.28
DISHTV
48.87
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 07, 2018
FII Statistics for March 06, 2018
Turnover on March 06, 2018
Open Interest
No. of
Turnover
Change
Detail
Buy
Sell
Net
Instrument
Value
Change
Contracts
( in Cr. )
(%)
Contracts
(in Cr.)
(%)
INDEX
INDEX
2854.85
2344.21
510.64
185059
14742.90
5.65
323006
27745.90
23.24
FUTURES
FUTURES
INDEX
INDEX
76650.90
75623.15
1027.75
802540
63977.40
5.15
6473403
598954.35
58.18
OPTIONS
OPTIONS
STOCK
9601.10
8891.73
709.36
1078546
74573.89
1.40
STOCK
FUTURES
742213
52694.69
14.51
FUTURES
STOCK
STOCK
6266.24
6273.55
(7.31)
71374
4918.13
8.58
486795
35743.19
17.55
OPTIONS
OPTIONS
Total
95373.09
93132.65
2240.45
2137519
158212.32
3.37
TOTAL
8025417
715138.13
49.73
Nifty Spot = 10249.25
Lot Size = 75
Bull-Call Spreads
Bear-Put Spreads
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Buy
10400
80.55
Buy
10300
174.95
29.80
70.20
10429.80
43.20
56.80
10256.80
Sell
10500
50.75
Sell
10200
131.75
Buy
10400
80.55
Buy
10300
174.95
50.70
149.30
10450.70
75.95
124.05
10224.05
Sell
10600
29.85
Sell
10100
99.00
Buy
10500
50.75
Buy
10200
131.75
20.90
79.10
10520.90
32.75
67.25
10167.25
Sell
10600
29.85
Sell
10100
99.00
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (March Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 07, 2018
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
386
396
405
414
423
AMBUJACEM
234
237
243
246
252
ASIANPAINT
1,092
1,097
1,105
1,109
1,117
AUROPHARMA
591
598
609
617
628
AXISBANK
500
509
520
528
539
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,827
2,863
2,920
2,956
3,012
BAJFINANCE
1,601
1,620
1,646
1,664
1,690
BPCL
426
435
445
455
465
BHARTIARTL
400
407
417
424
434
INFRATEL
322
327
334
339
345
BOSCHLTD
17,749
17,954
18,210
18,416
18,672
CIPLA
575
580
585
589
594
COALINDIA
298
302
306
311
314
DRREDDY
2,132
2,154
2,189
2,211
2,246
EICHERMOT
26,975
27,232
27,508
27,765
28,041
GAIL
432
436
442
446
452
HCLTECH
911
922
937
948
964
HDFCBANK
1,815
1,831
1,855
1,871
1,896
HDFC
1,726
1,754
1,787
1,815
1,848
HEROMOTOCO
3,517
3,539
3,567
3,590
3,618
HINDALCO
217
222
228
233
239
HINDPETRO
355
360
368
374
382
HINDUNILVR
1,278
1,286
1,297
1,304
1,315
IBULHSGFIN
1,198
1,218
1,247
1,268
1,297
ICICIBANK
285
290
299
304
312
IOC
372
377
385
390
398
INDUSINDBK
1,682
1,696
1,714
1,728
1,746
INFY
1,132
1,142
1,153
1,163
1,175
ITC
251
254
258
261
265
KOTAKBANK
1,057
1,070
1,088
1,101
1,119
LT
1,249
1,266
1,292
1,310
1,336
LUPIN
752
763
779
789
806
M&M
699
710
726
737
753
MARUTI
8,416
8,516
8,701
8,801
8,986
NTPC
161
162
164
165
166
ONGC
183
184
186
187
188
POWERGRID
189
191
194
196
200
RELIANCE
886
899
917
930
948
SBIN
248
252
259
263
270
SUNPHARMA
509
520
542
553
575
TCS
2,970
3,006
3,067
3,103
3,164
TATAMOTORS
337
342
350
355
363
TATASTEEL
646
653
663
670
681
TECHM
603
610
622
629
641
ULTRACEMCO
4,071
4,110
4,143
4,182
4,215
UPL
682
692
709
720
737
VEDANTA
301
307
317
324
334
WIPRO
283
285
288
291
294
YESBANK
304
308
314
318
325
ZEEL
545
552
561
568
577
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 07, 2018
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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