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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 06, 2020
Nifty Bank Outlook - (21852)
On Friday, Bank Nifty index witnessed a marginal positive opening
and then traded within a range for the most part of the session. It
underperformed benchmark as it ended with loss of around half a
percent at 21852.
In the last few sessions, we have seen a consolidation in the bank
Index between two key averages on the daily chart i.e. 20SMA and
89EMA placed around 21200 and 22200 respectively. We sense,
the next directional move can only be seen on a breakout from
the above levels. Traders are hence advised to watchout for the
above levels and trade in the direction of breakout. Till then one
can have a stock specific approach which are providing
outperforming opportunities.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 21550 Resistance 1 – 22200
Support 2 – 21200 Resistance 2 – 22350
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Sensex (36021) / Nifty (10607)
During the last week, trading started on a weak note owing to
some sluggish cues from the global cues. However, the optimist
traders pounced on this opportunity and used decline to create
bullish bets. As a result, we eventually managed to surpass the
recent hurdle of 10350-10360 during the mid week. This was
followed by a continuation of the northward march throughout
the remaining part of the week to conclude the week at 4-months
highest point.
In the recent past, despite intermediate hiccups we maintained
our bullish stance and advocated against going short on the
market. The strategy played out well as we have seen all declines
getting bought into and in the process, we managed to reclaim
the 10600 mark. Now, from hereon, it would be very difficult for
traders to carry their positions overnight as we have approached
a corridor of uncertainty now. If we look at the daily chart, the
Nifty has reached a higher end of the ‘Rising Wedge’ pattern and
the major ‘200- SMA’ is placed in the zone of 10800-11000. So at
every 100-150 points upmove, the bulls will have to tackle these
hurdles. Hence, in our sense, traders who have been enjoying this
bullish journey since last three months, should ideally start
lightening up their positions. Although the texture has not
changed, it’s better to be safe than sorry and hence, one should
take one step at a time now.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 10500 Resistance 1 – 10680
Support 2 – 10450 Resistance 2 – 10750
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Technically, the bullish structure remains intact as long as we are
trading above 10300-10200 and ideally we could have asked to trail
stop losses at these levels. Theoretically it may be correct but
practically risk-reward is not favourable following this strategy and
hence, we advice staying light and wait for further developments. If
we manage to go beyond 11000, we would see next leg of the rally
and there we can aggressively start participating again.
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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 06, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
10100
10200
10300
10400
10500
10600
10700
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
14,000
6/22 6/23 6/24 6/25 6/26 6/29 6/30 7/1 7/2 7/3
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
s
On Friday, Nifty witnessed a gap up opening and then
traded within a range with positive bias. Nifty
eventually ended with gain of around half a percent
tad above 10600 levels.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 857 crores. In index futures, they bought
worth 504 crores with increase in open interest
indicating long formations and some short covering on
Friday
.
During the last week, Nifty surpassed the resistance of
10500 due to a combination of long formation and
short covering. Although FII’s didn’t rolled much of their
index futures long positions during June expiry, they
formed fresh long positions during last week which led
to an increase in their ‘Long Short Ratio’ to 52%. As far
as options activities are concerned, the weekly expiry
has seen good build up in 10400 put option indicating
immediate support now at this level. On the flipside,
immediate resistance is seen around 10700-10800.
Traders are advised to look for stock specific buying
opportunities and trade with a positive bias for this
week.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 2.36%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 1.35%
as market closed at 10607.35 levels.
The Nifty July future closed with a discount of 34.9 point
against a discount of 12 point in last trading session. The
August series closed at a discount of 40.65 point.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 26.50 to 25.77
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty decreased from
1.62 to 1.50.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are BEL, SIEMENS, BHARATFORG, PETRONET
AND BHARTIARTL.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
BATAINDIA 2003650 32.28 1298.65 1.27
IBULHSGFIN 17152300 24.81 231.05 2.46
BHEL 63987000 23.41 38.65 5.43
BALKRISIND 1115200 23.04 1314.05 3.18
SIEMENS 2670250 15.35 1149.15 4.85
LICHSGFIN 7516000 12.55 274.35 -3.56
GODREJCP 7403000 10.69 717.30 2.84
BANDHANBNK 11151000 9.16 347.15 0.24
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
PETRONET 15633000 -20.13 272.75 2.22
APOLLOHOSP 1055500 -17.18 1379.80 1.47
MOTHERSUMI 32823000 -14.06 98.10 -6.09
SAIL 54872000 -12.48 30.85 -1.75
TATAPOWER 52866000 -11.26 49.90 0.21
HDFCLIFE 13388100 -8.30 572.15 4.07
EQUITAS 13087200 -5.70 53.40 -2.82
RAMCOCEM 1008950 -5.34 640.65 -1.04
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.50 0.85
BANKNIFTY 0.79 0.84
RELIANCE 0.69 0.49
ICICIBANK 0.52 0.57
INFY 0.84 0.58
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
BEL 61.68
SIEMENS 44.91
BHARATFORG 68.95
PETRONET 47.81
BHARTIARTL 51.50
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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 06, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (July Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
10607.35
FII Statistics for July 03, 2020
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
3569.29
3065.27
504.02
97478
6934.15
4.33
INDEX
OPTIONS
125100.80
124461.56
639.24
598074
42922.43
7.15
STOCK
FUTURES
11295.50
11256.19
39.31
1325199
87867.59
0.20
STOCK
OPTIONS
3250.13
3302.70
(52.57) 84796
5497.52
4.49
Total 143215.72
142085.72
1130.00
2105547
143221.69
2.45
Turnover on July 03, 2020
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 4,16,155 26687.62 -23.45
Index Options
1,12,96,285
6,68,992.57 -79.89
Stock Futures 6,96,954 46671.65 -2.42
Stock Options
7,05,911 50532.60 4.50
Total 1,31,15,305
7,92,884.44 -77.07
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 10600 251.95
51.05 48.95 10651.05
Sell 10700 200.90
Buy 10600 251.95
94.85 105.15 10694.85
Sell 10800 157.10
Buy 10700 200.90
43.80 56.20 10743.80
Sell 10800 157.10
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 10600 281.25
43.35 56.65 10556.65
Sell 10500 237.90
Buy 10600 281.25
80.55 119.45 10519.45
Sell 10400 200.70
Buy 10500 237.90
37.20 62.80 10462.80
Sell 10400 200.70
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
10000 10100 10200 10300 10400 10500 10600 10700 10800 10900 11000 11100 11200 11300
Call Put
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July 06, 2020
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
340
350
359
369
377
ASIANPAINT 1,672 1,684
1,702
1,714
1,732
AXISBANK
420
424
428
432
436
BAJAJ-AUTO 2,854 2,893
2,927
2,966
2,999
BAJFINANCE 2,879 2,905
2,947
2,974
3,016
BAJAJFINSV 6,062 6,106
6,172
6,216
6,282
BPCL
379
382
386
390
394
BHARTIARTL
552
567
575
590
598
INFRATEL
218
222
225
230
233
BRITANNIA 3,479 3,509
3,544
3,574
3,609
CIPLA
625
632
642
649
660
COALINDIA
132
134
135
136
138
DRREDDY 3,875 3,898
3,933
3,956
3,991
EICHERMOT 17,967
18,475
18,862
19,370
19,757
GAIL
102
103
105
106
107
GRASIM
607
618
624
634
640
HCLTECH
567
573
577
583
587
HDFCBANK 1,054 1,064
1,080
1,090
1,106
HDFC 1,846 1,866
1,887
1,906
1,928
HEROMOTOCO
2,650
2,694
2,722
2,766
2,794
HINDALCO
142
144
147
149
152
HINDUNILVR 2,141 2,157
2,173
2,189
2,204
ICICIBANK
355
358
363
366
370
IOC
86
87
88
89
90
INDUSINDBK
475
481
491
497
506
INFY
748
755
760
767
771
ITC
195
196
197
198
199
JSW STEEL
185
187
191
193
197
KOTAKBANK 1,339 1,346
1,358
1,365
1,376
LT
933
939
947
953
961
M&M
519
525
530
536
541
MARUTI 5,829 5,881
5,935
5,986
6,040
NESTLEIND 16,439
16,567
16,779
16,907
17,119
NTPC
92
93
94
96
97
ONGC
81
82
82
83
84
POWERGRID
173
175
177
180
182
RELIANCE 1,758 1,773
1,783
1,798
1,808
SHREECEM 22,616
22,744
22,866
22,994
23,116
SBIN
182
183
185
187
188
SUNPHARMA
469
473
476
480
483
TCS 2,144 2,172
2,188
2,216
2,233
TATAMOTORS
100
102
104
106
108
TATASTEEL
322
326
331
335
341
TECHM
556
561
567
573
578
TITAN
978
991
999
1,012
1,021
ULTRACEMCO 3,823 3,856
3,908
3,941
3,993
UPL
436
440
447
451
457
VEDANTA
102
104
106
108
110
WIPRO
219
222
225
228
231
ZEEL
168
170
174
176
180
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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 06, 2020
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]g.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]roking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com