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March 05, 2021
Technical & Derivatives Report
Nifty
Bank Out
look
-
(
35802)
Market seems to be in a different mode all together as we saw a
surprising gap down yesterday similar to what we witnessed last
Friday. Fortunately, the damage post the opening was no closer
to the Friday’s session. In fact, we had a smart recovery during the
first half to almost pare down all losses. However, post the
midsession, the bears once again took the charge to drag the
BANKNIFTY well below 36000 to conclude the weekly expiry with
a cut over one and half a percent. Yesterday’s huge gap down
must have caught lot of complacent bulls on the wrong foot;
because we had a smart recovery in last three sessions and
especially on Wednesday there was a complete gush seen in the
last hour. Clearly, it appears as if the index is not going to offer
easy trade anymore now. Fortunately despite Wednesday’s strong
move, we did not get carried away by the momentum and rather
had a close look on few key levels. As highlighted in the previous
commentary, BANKNIFTY was inched closer to the higher end
(36500) of the bearish gap created last Friday. It did not have
enough strength to go beyond it and eventually closed within the
vicinity of key support zone of 36000 – 35600. Let’s see how
things pan out in the coming session where 35500 is the level to
watch out for.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 35500 Resistance 1 – 36000
Support 2 – 35000 Resistance 2 – 36500
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Sensex (50846) / Nifty (15081)
Post the sharp surge in Wednesday’s last hour of trade, it seemed
that the mighty bulls have regained strength to take the indices
higher. However, the weak sentiment in the global markets had a
rub off effect on our markets and hence, we witnessed a gap down
opening of more than 200 points in Nifty. The index managed to
find support around the 15000 mark and showed some pullback,
but the leadership from the large cap space was missing and hence,
the Nifty ended the day with a cut of about a percent below 15100.
It wasn’t a trended day as far as index movement is concerned as
the Nifty showed some volatility within a broad range post the gap
down opening. Nifty defended its support of 15000 but the
pullback move from thereon was still not strong enough to take the
indices much higher. However, the stock specific momentum from
the midcap basket was robust and hence, we had a positive market
breadth and the Nifty midcap index outperformed to clock new
record highs. In the last two weeks, we have seen moves on both
sides in Nifty and there’s no clear direction seen. On the lower time
frame chart of Nifty, this seems to be a ‘Broadening Triangle’ in
formation which generally occurs with a lot of volatility and traders
usually tend to get trapped if entered on breakouts on either side.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Thus, we would advise traders to take a backseat for a while for
clear direction to emerge in the indices. The immediate support for
the coming session are placed around 14960 and 14800 whereas
resistances are seen around 15200 and 15300. Intraday traders
should look for stock specific trading opportunities as the midcap
space is buzzing and keeping a stock specific approach seems to
be the apt strategy for short term/intraday trading in such markets.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 14960 Resistance 1 – 15200
Support 2 – 14800 Resistance2 – 15300
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 05, 2021
Nifty Vs OI
14000
14200
14400
14600
14800
15000
15200
15400
,0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2/10 2/16 2/18 2/22 2/24 2/26 3/2 3/4
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
Post last three sessions fabulous move, we had gap
down opening yesterday tad below 15050. As the day
progressed, we did see smart recovery to reclaim 15200.
But, selling pressure at higher levels wipped off most of
the gains to eventually conclude with the loss of a
percent.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash segment to the tune of
Rs. 223 crores. In Index Future segment, they again sold
worth Rs. 2265 crores with good amount of rise in open
interest indicating fresh short formation
.
In F&O segment, after quite some time Nifty added
huge positions. The open interest surged almost 19%
and we believe majority of the positions formed are on
short side. Looking at opening and sell-off seen at the
higher levels, put writers of 15000-15200 covered their
positions. On the other side, fresh build-up was
observed in 15100-15200 call options; followed by
unwinding in 15300 and above strikes. FIIs too added
good amount of shorts in index and stock futures. As a
result, their index futures Long short ratio plunged to
56% from 63%. Considering yesterday’s development,
we believe traders should stay light in index and prefer
stock specific approach.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 18.95%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 9.25%
as market closed at 15080.75 levels.
The Nifty March future closed with a premium of 53.25
point against a premium of 39.05 point in last trading
session. The April series closed at a premium of 119.70
point.
The INDIA VIX increased from 22.09 to 24.15.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty decreased from
1.44 to 1.23.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are POWERGRID, MUTHOOTFIN, AARTIIND,
HAVELLS and BHEL.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
POWERGRID 13928000 26.85 225.15 -1.11
MUTHOOTFIN 2990250 14.37 1314.75 -0.22
AARTIIND 430100 11.58 1291.90 -0.45
HAVELLS 3858000 10.58 1171.65 0.86
BHEL 140826000 9.08 54.25 6.13
COALINDIA 44952600 8.52 152.05 -1.93
SBIN 100647000 8.01 395.65 -2.39
AMBUJACEM 16752000 7.92 292.00 3.41
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
IBULHSGFIN 37426300 -11.46 243.45 -2.40
TORNTPOWER 3123000 -10.95 417.55 2.51
IGL 6502375 -9.08 522.45 0.79
MFSL 2817100 -6.47 915.60 -1.00
TCS 6999900 -6.43 3049.70 -0.48
COFORGE 319875 -6.06 2635.55 -1.63
DABUR 8906250 -6.02 524.20 0.77
RAMCOCEM 1598850 -5.86 1026.10 1.04
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.23 1.00
BANKNIFTY 0.89 0.95
RELIANCE 0.45 0.44
ICICIBANK 0.50 0.50
INFY 0.62 0.34
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
CONCOR 50.55
ULTRACEMCO 42.34
GMRINFRA 52.87
BHEL 67.61
ACC 38.40
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 05, 2021
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (March Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
15080.75
FII Statistics for March 04, 2021
Detail Buy
Net Contracts
Open Interest
Sell
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
INDEX
FUTURES
5496.63 7761.79 (2265.16) 136065 14875.02 10.47
INDEX
OPTIONS
1200064.83 1186983.77 13081.06
698186 75874.31 (30.59)
STOCK
FUTURES
14865.85 16353.62 (1487.77) 1168559 103170.79 (0.00)
STOCK
OPTIONS
12530.81 12660.91 (130.10) 138241 12088.09 7.21
Total 1232958.12
1223760.09
9198.03
2141051
206008.21
(11.77)
Turnover on March 04, 2021
Instrum
ent
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 4,76,262 47846.74 33.28
Index Options
9,48,59,978
92,85,150.35 125.55
Stock Futures 8,27,919 78209.31 3.01
Stock Options
14,37,641
1,36,582.10 -5.56
Total 9,76,01,800
95,47,788.50 118.33
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 15100 344.35
52.80 47.20 15152.80
Sell 15200 291.55
Buy 15100 344.35
100.00 100.00 15200.00
Sell 15300 244.35
Buy 15200 291.55
47.20 52.80 15247.20
Sell 15300 244.35
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 15100 337.10
40.00 60.00 15060.00
Sell 15000 297.10
Buy 15100 337.10
78.60 121.40 15021.40
Sell 14900 258.50
Buy 15000 297.10
38.60 61.40 14961.40
Sell 14900 258.50
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
14500 14600 14700 14800 14900 15000 15100 15200 15300 15400 15500 15600 15700 15800
Call Put
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March 05, 2021
Da
ily
Pivot Level
s for
Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
695
724
745
773
795
ASIANPAINT 2,316 2,366
2,401
2,451
2,486
AXISBANK
719
728
740
748
760
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,796 3,838
3,883
3,924
3,969
BAJFINANCE 5,319 5,402
5,485
5,568
5,651
BAJAJFINSV 9,960
10,045
10,163
10,247
10,365
BPCL
452
458
465
471
479
BHARTIARTL
533
536
541
544
549
BRITANNIA 3,424 3,463
3,489
3,528
3,554
CIPLA
795
801
809
815
824
COALINDIA
150
151
153
154
156
DIVISLAB 3,463 3,508
3,540
3,585
3,616
DRREDDY 4,395 4,485
4,534
4,624
4,673
EICHERMOT 2,503 2,548
2,591
2,636
2,678
GAIL
141
143
145
146
148
GRASIM 1,277 1,314
1,337
1,373
1,396
HCLTECH
941
950
960
968
978
HDFCBANK 1,522 1,537
1,554
1,569
1,586
HDFCLIFE
705
713
721
728
736
HDFC 2,545 2,564
2,587
2,606
2,629
HEROMOTOCO 3,324 3,372
3,416
3,464
3,508
HINDALCO
341
345
351
356
362
HINDUNILVR 2,162 2,179
2,191
2,209
2,221
ICICIBANK
607
614
622
629
638
IOC
100
101
102
103
104
INDUSINDBK 1,050 1,071
1,094
1,114
1,137
INFY 1,302 1,316
1,340
1,354
1,378
ITC
206
208
210
211
213
JSW STEEL
405
410
416
420
426
KOTAKBANK 1,826 1,862
1,886
1,922
1,946
LT 1,435 1,449
1,472
1,485
1,508
M&M
823
834
846
857
870
MARUTI 6,942 7,037
7,106
7,201
7,270
NESTLEIND 16,342
16,502
16,605
16,765
16,868
NTPC
109
110
111
112
114
ONGC
109
111
114
116
119
POWERGRID
219
222
226
229
233
RELIANCE 2,142 2,159
2,175
2,191
2,207
SBILIFE
879
897
911
930
943
SHREECEM 26,772
27,724
28,287
29,239
29,802
SBIN
389
392
398
401
407
SUNPHARMA
603
611
624
632
645
TCS 2,984 3,017
3,049
3,082
3,114
TATAMOTORS
333
336
341
344
349
TATASTEEL
733
745
756
769
779
TECHM
934
951
973
990
1,012
TITAN 1,432 1,451
1,470
1,489
1,507
ULTRACEMCO 6,231 6,503
6,667
6,939
7,102
UPL
583
599
615
632
648
WIPRO
420
429
437
446
454
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 05, 2021
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]roking.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]roking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com