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Technical & Derivatives Report
November 04, 2019
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Sensex (40165) / Nifty (11891)
Friday’s session was almost a replica of previous day, the only
difference was, we fell from higher levels in the latter half on
Thursday and on Friday, we recovered after correcting in the first
half. Overall, the bias remained neutral as we are experiencing
some indecision with index per se. However, the stock specific
action still continues in the market as we saw good participation
from the broader end of the spectrum. Eventually, the truncated
week post the Diwali festival concluded with handsome gains
over a couple of percent.
Recently, the Nifty has been struggling to surpass the sturdy wall
of 11650 11700. On the opening day of the week gone by, we
saw index surpassing this barrier with an ease and from there, we
continued our march towards 11900. Now, SENSEX already
posting a fresh high, the Nifty is not going to shy away for a long
time. Soon, we would be witnessing Nifty traversing the 12000
mark to go beyond its record high of 12103.05. Before this
some brakes seems to have applied on the recent momentum.
As we highlighted in our Friday’s article, last two day’s narrow
range body formation indicates indecision or a profit booking
and by no means, we construe this as a sign of caution. In our
sense, the northward trajectory is likely to continue and soon we
are likely to be heading higher to reach new milestones.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 11800 Resistance 1 – 11980
Support 2 – 11776 Resistance 2 – 12000
Exhibit 1: Nifty
Daily
Chart
Nifty Bank Outlook - (30330)
In Friday's session, BankNifty traded with a positive bias and
posted gains of over 260 points. During last week, the index has
registered gains of about 2.75 percent led by the
outperformance in the PSU Banks.
On the daily chart. Bank Nifty Index has ended just on the edge
of trend line resistance mentioned in the previous reports. Once
the index surpass this hurdle around 30400, it should then
continue the momentum head towards 30800 - 31000. During
the month of October, the BankNifty has relative
underperformed the Nifty index. We expect this space to now
show a catch up move and outperform in the near term. Traders
are hence advised to keep positive bias and use dips to enter
longs. As far as support levels are concerned, immediate demand
zone can be seen around 30000-29850 levels.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 30000 Resistance 1 – 30500
Support 2 – 29850 Resistance 2 – 30800
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank
Daily
Chart
We are sounding extremely sanguine, because in the recent
move from 11400, the overall market breadth has improved
drastically and it’s always a sign of a robust rally. Lot of beaten
down sectors / counters are finally out of their slumber and are
showing some encouraging signs. Clearly the AUTO and
PHARMA belongs to this category and the METAL space, which
was on a roll this week. Do watch out for these spaces as they are
not done yet, rather this is just a beginning. Last but certainly not
least, the banking index, which has been slightly
underperforming of late, is on the cusp of giving a breakout from
crucial resistance zone. If it confirms this, no brainer, Nifty is
heading towards new high. For this week, 11843 – 11776
11714 would be seen as immediate support levels. In case of a
decline towards these crucial junctions, traders are advised to use
it as an opportunity to go long with a positional perspective.
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Nifty Vs OI
Views
Post some consolidation, we witnessed Nifty
surpassing the hurdle of 11650-11700 on Monday and
then this rally extended towards 11900 mark.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 533 cr. In index futures, they bought worth
Rs. 428 crores with rise in open interest, indicating
long formation took place in last session.
We witnessed fresh buying interest in index futures
segment and most of the longs formed in October
series have been rolled over. If we look at the rollover
figures, over 84% of the positions in Nifty have been
rolled to November series which is much higher than
the average of 75.31%. During the month of October,
FIIs too turned buyers as they bought equities worth
Rs.8595 crores in the cash segment. In Index Futures
segment too, they covered some of their short
positions and added fresh long positions during the
series. Analyzing all the above data, we are quite
optimistic for the November series and expect this
upmove to continue.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 1.68%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased 21.63% as
market closed at 11890.60 levels.
The Nifty October future closed with a premium of 37.65
points against a premium of 37.35 points in last trading
session. The November series closed at a premium of
85.30 points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 16.28 to 15.73.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased
from 1.42 to 1.41.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are IDEA, GMRINFRA, DISHTV, TATAPOWER and
SHREECEM.
OI
Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
BANKINDIA 29052000 33.31 71.00 -3.23
JUSTDIAL 3544800 32.15 557.90 -6.84
APOLLOTYRE 6063000 24.68 189.20 0.35
DISHTV 102056300 16.86 16.20 51.63
SUNTV 3031200 14.43 542.65 4.31
BAJAJFINSV 1456500 12.01 8384.85 3.75
CIPLA 14652000 11.46 469.20 0.86
TECHM 19820400 11.36 760.45 0.57
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
INFRATEL 8658000 -9.34 202.45 10.22
HEXAWARE 1896000 -7.67 340.70 2.94
INDUSINDBK 12006000 -5.94 1379.85 6.10
UNIONBANK 30632000 -4.58 58.90 2.97
TATAMTRDVR 33990000 -4.45 81.25 0.99
BANKBARODA 70272000 -3.43 100.00 4.16
TATAELXSI 1113000 -3.03 829.50 0.94
RAMCOCEM 1210400 -2.95 800.80 3.34
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.41 0.99
BANKNIFTY 1.30 0.85
RELIANCE 0.83 0.99
ICICIBANK 0.67 0.59
INFY 0.60 0.39
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
ZEEL 114.53
DISHTV 187.66
BERGEPAINT 60.70
BATAINDIA 35.51
TVSMOTOR 64.16
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November 04, 2019
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (November Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot
=
11
890.60
Lot Size = 75
FII Statistics for
November
01
, 2019
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
2572.15 2144.09 428.06
159274 13752.72 1.45
INDEX
OPTIONS
115872.12 114440.36 1431.76
592184 49601.53 15.74
STOCK
FUTURES
14731.26 13636.13 1095.13
1498562 89185.71 5.99
STOCK
OPTIONS
4144.21 4185.23 (41.02) 50196 2959.59 110.33
Total 137319.74
134405.81
2913.93
2300216
155499.55
9.20
Turnover on
November
01
, 2019
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
266703 19036.24 -58.17
INDEX
OPTIONS
7158843 506073.08 -78.64
STOCK
FUTURES
1013108 52976.59 -60.78
STOCK
OPTIONS
751117 41112.94 -42.38
TOTAL 91,89,771 619198.85 -76.37
Bull
-
Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11900 198.85
54.25 45.75 11954.25
Sell 12000 144.60
Buy 11900 198.85
97.45 102.55 11997.45
Sell 12100 101.40
Buy 12000 144.60
43.20 56.80 12043.20
Sell 12100 101.40
Bear
-
Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11900 171.05
35.90 64.10 11864.10
Sell 11800 135.15
Buy 11900 171.05
66.00 134.00 11834.00
Sell 11700 105.05
Buy 11800 135.15
30.10 69.90 11769.90
Sell 11700 105.05
Nifty Put
-
Call Analysis
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November 04, 2019
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Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS 382 386
392 395
401
ASIANPAINT 1,724 1,745
1,783 1,804 1,842
AXISBANK 720 734
742 756
764
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,138 3,185
3,237 3,284 3,336
BAJFINANCE 3,978 4,024
4,067 4,113 4,156
BAJAJFINSV 7,990 8,187
8,308 8,506 8,627
BPCL 511 515
520 525
530
BHARTIARTL 358 365
371 379
384
INFRATEL 184 193
199 208
213
BRITANNIA 3,208 3,239
3,267 3,297 3,325
CIPLA 457 463
469 475
480
COALINDIA 200 203
206 209
212
DRREDDY 2,681 2,719
2,774 2,812 2,867
EICHERMOT 21,267 21,621
22,255 22,609 23,243
GAIL 132 134
136 138
140
GRASIM 745 760
779 795
814
HCLTECH 1,131 1,141
1,154 1,165 1,178
HDFCBANK 1,221 1,231
1,237 1,247 1,253
HDFC 2,092 2,110
2,139 2,157 2,186
HEROMOTOCO
2,625
2,666
2,712
2,754
2,800
HINDALCO 185 189
192 196
199
HINDUNILVR 2,132 2,156
2,170 2,194 2,208
ICICIBANK 457 460
463 466
470
IOC 139 141
142 144
146
INDUSINDBK 1,291 1,335
1,361 1,405 1,430
INFY 677 682
688 694
700
ITC 257 259
261 263
265
JSW STEEL 223 230
235 242
247
KOTAKBANK 1,553 1,567
1,576 1,590 1,599
LT 1,422 1,436
1,458 1,472 1,495
M&M 565 577
594 606
622
MARUTI 7,500 7,560
7,604 7,663 7,708
NESTLEIND 14,741 14,850
14,960 15,070 15,179
NTPC 120 121
122 123
124
ONGC 138 141
143 146
148
POWERGRID 196 196
198 199
200
RELIANCE 1,432 1,445
1,453 1,465 1,474
SBIN 306 310
312 316
319
SUNPHARMA 429 433
437 441
445
TCS 2,144 2,172
2,224 2,252 2,304
TATAMOTORS 170 172
175 178
181
TATASTEEL 369 384
393 409
418
TECHM 731 746
755 770
779
TITAN 1,261 1,282
1,307 1,328 1,354
ULTRACEMCO 4,111 4,137
4,158 4,184 4,205
UPL 577 583
592 598
607
VEDANTA 143 148
152 156
160
WIPRO 255 257
259 261
263
YESBANK 61 64
68 71 75
ZEEL 242 276
295 329
348
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Technical & Derivatives Report
November 04, 2019
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*
Research Team Tel: 022
-
39357800
Website:
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