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Technical & Derivatives Report
October
04
, 2019
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38
107
) / Nifty
(1
13
14
)
Post the mid-week holiday, Index started with a marginal negative
opening, however, the weakness from the global peers dragged
Index further to retest previous session low. Subsequently, Index
managed to defend previous session low and after a bounce-
back witnessed choppy moves throughout the session to end near
opening levels with loss of 0.40% at 11314 levels.
On the weekly options expiry session, Index lacked clear direction
and ended with a Doji’ pattern on the daily chart which suggests
uncertainty amongst market participants. Our sense is Index is in
the corrective phase after the recent sharp rally of around 1000
points seen after the positive announcement by FM. In such a
scenario we see 11200-11250 as a sacrosanct level which is a
confluence zone formed by key retracement level and a band of
averages (50,100,200 DMA). The bias remains positive as long
Index holds these levels. On the flip side, immediate resistance is
placed around the high of doji pattern at 11370 and sustained
trade above the same can resume the uptrend back towards
11550-11700 levels. For the coming session, the volatility is likely
to spike up with the key RBI policy to be announced hence traders
are advised to take a stock-specific approach with proper risk
management strategy.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 11247 Resistance 1 – 11370
Support 2 – 11200 Resistance 2 – 11450
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Nifty Bank Outlook
-
(
28
414
)
The bank index too started on a negative note and after a
sluggish session ended with another loss of percent at 28414.
In the last few sessions, the bank index and the stocks within the
sector has been an underperformer due to the mounting concerns
over corporate loans. The Index has now reached the strong
support zone formed by key retracement level and averages at
28200 levels. For the coming session, it will be crucial how Index
reacts around the said levels on the volatile session of RBI policy.
A sustained trade below the same can open doors for further
weakness towards 28000-27870 whereas on the flip slide any
positive developments can result a strong bounce-back towards
28800-29000 levels. Traders are advised to keep a tab of above
levels and have a stock-specific approach within the space with
proper exit setup.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 28200 Resistance 1 – 28800
Support 2 – 28000 Resistance 2 – 29000
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
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Nifty Vs OI
Views
After witnessing decent volatility on Tuesday, we
started-off yesterday’s session slightly lower and saw
some follow-up selling to correct almost towards
Tuesday’s low. However, once agin we saw a bounce
back from the low’s to eventually conclude the session
tad above 11300 mark.
FIIs were net sellers in cash market segment to the tune
of Rs. 810 cr. In index futures, they sold worth Rs. 1062
crores with decent amount of rise in open interest,
indicating formation of short positions.
We began October series with decent long rollover
especially for Nifty. Whereas, in case of banking index
decent amount of unwinding was seen series on series.
Recently, we witnessed massive open interest addition
of 57% in the banking index, wherein majority of the
positions were on the short side. The benchmark index
too added some shorts. At present, 11250-11300 is an
important support; and until we manage to trade
above this traders should avoid any bearish bets in
index.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 2.33%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased 5.16% as
market closed at 11314.00 levels.
The Nifty October future closed with a premium of 47.80
points against a premium of 69.95 points in last trading
session. The November series closed at a premium of
97.70 points.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 16.75 to 17.70.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has increased from
0.96 to 1.01.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are DISHTV, ONGC, TATAPOWER, MRF and
CONCOR.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
MANAPPURAM 14370000 17.69 133.45 -0.67
VOLTAS 1858000 15.40 674.40 0.16
JUSTDIAL 2128000 13.26 661.80 -4.00
GODREJCP 6449600 9.39 659.95 -3.47
ACC 2182800 8.58 1545.75 -1.84
INDUSINDBK 15077600 7.73 1255.55 -2.82
RECLTD 28212000 7.30 124.85 0.97
HINDALCO 34275500 6.79 182.60 -3.72
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
TORNTPHARM 326000 -10.19 1598.75 -1.16
NIITTECH 740250 -6.27 1368.00 0.49
EICHERMOT 331100 -5.61 18284.45 2.42
BANKINDIA 26304000 -5.50 61.90 3.63
BIOCON 11588400 -5.27 232.20 4.63
IDEA 541716000 -4.69 5.10 -6.42
TORNTPOWER 3513000 -4.25 284.35 0.76
INDIGO 2514000 -4.12 1826.05 -2.71
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.01 0.82
BANKNIFTY 0.62 0.64
RELIANCE 0.85 0.82
ICICIBANK 0.47 0.61
INFY 1.30 0.58
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
YESBANK 218.35
BIOCON 42.15
JUSTDIAL 43.33
HINDALCO 41.00
BPCL 78.56
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (October Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot
=
113
14.00
Lot Size =
75
FII Statistics for
October
03
, 2019
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
4242.49 5305.02 (1062.53) 166751 13320.25 3.03
INDEX
OPTIONS
482875.95 479969.23 2906.72
573493 45769.53 (13.28)
STOCK
FUTURES
13339.80 13243.03 96.77
1565662 90682.27 0.73
STOCK
OPTIONS
4685.04 4725.00 (39.96) 51484 2747.86 20.85
Total 505143.28
503242.28
1901.00
2357390
152519.91
(2.59)
Turnover on
October
03
, 2019
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
399800 27007.51 -38.12
INDEX
OPTIONS
42139374 2685642.50 58.49
STOCK
FUTURES
907622 44994.01 -31.98
STOCK
OPTIONS
664075 34344.45 -31.71
TOTAL 4,41,10,871
2791988.47 50.54
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11300 244.55
51.65 48.35 11351.65
Sell 11400 192.90
Buy 11300 244.55
99.00 101.00 11399.00
Sell 11500 145.55
Buy 11400 192.90
47.35 52.65 11447.35
Sell 11500 145.55
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11300 183.10
37.40 62.60 11262.60
Sell 11200 145.70
Buy 11300 183.10
68.80 131.20 11231.20
Sell 11100 114.30
Buy 11200 145.70
31.40 68.60 11168.60
Sell 11100 114.30
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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Da
ily
Pivot
Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIPORTS 395 400
403 407 411
ASIANPAINT 1,714 1,731
1,750 1,767 1,786
AXISBANK 634 651
664 681 693
BAJAJ-AUTO 2,850 2,874
2,907 2,931 2,964
BAJFINANCE 3,892 3,926
3,966 3,999 4,039
BAJAJFINSV 8,253 8,350
8,417 8,514 8,582
BPCL 476 504
522 550 567
BHARTIARTL 333 339
347 353 362
INFRATEL 243 246
248 251 253
BRITANNIA 2,822 2,862
2,891 2,931 2,960
CIPLA 401 409
415 424 430
COALINDIA 181 184
188 191 196
DRREDDY 2,617 2,647
2,666 2,696 2,714
EICHERMOT 17,499 17,892
18,116 18,509 18,733
GAIL 129 130
132 133 135
GRASIM 656 668
682 694 708
HCLTECH 1,038 1,057
1,074 1,093 1,110
HDFCBANK 1,200 1,212
1,228 1,239 1,255
HDFC 1,927 1,951
1,975 1,999 2,023
HEROMOTOCO 2,606 2,637
2,685 2,716 2,764
HINDALCO 176 179
184 187 191
HINDUNILVR 1,942 1,952
1,969 1,979 1,996
ICICIBANK 416 422
428 434 440
IOC 147 150
152 154 156
INDUSINDBK 1,172 1,214
1,262 1,303 1,351
INFY 776 781
789 794 803
ITC 254 258
260 264 266
JSW STEEL 214 218
222 225 229
KOTAKBANK 1,585 1,600
1,622 1,638 1,660
LT 1,399 1,428
1,452 1,482 1,505
M&M 540 552
558 569 576
MARUTI 6,628 6,691
6,743 6,806 6,858
NESTLEIND 13,492 13,601
13,675 13,784 13,859
NTPC 113 115
116 118 119
ONGC 123 126
128 130 132
POWERGRID 192 196
198 201 203
RELIANCE 1,269 1,290
1,302 1,323 1,336
SBIN 244 249
255 260 266
SUNPHARMA 372 380
386 394 400
TCS 2,028 2,044
2,063 2,079 2,098
TATAMOTORS 109 116
120 126 130
TATASTEEL 332 336
342 346 353
TECHM 679 691
704 716 729
TITAN 1,258 1,277
1,287 1,306 1,317
ULTRACEMCO 4,055 4,101
4,160 4,206 4,265
UPL 562 578
588 605 615
VEDANTA 140 142
146 148 151
WIPRO 229 232
236 239 243
YESBANK 32 37
40 46 49
ZEEL 212 232
245 265 278
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*
Research Team Tel: 022
-
39357800
Website:
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