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x
Nifty Bank Outlook - (20941)
Bank Nifty index too opened higher with another gap and rallied
sharply during the day. The index outperformed the Nifty index as
the stocks from the banking space witnessed sharp upmove. The
PSU Banks outperformed after a long period which resulted in
intraday gains of over 1000 points in Bank NIfty. However,
suddenly there was a sharp sell-off at the end and the index gave
up much of the gains to end the day up by 400 points.
The sell-off in the end has resulted into formation of a 'Gravestone
Doji' pattern on the daily chart. In our yesterday's report, we had
advised to lock profits on long positions as after such a sharp
move in few sessions. The above pattern is a sign of reversal and
the follow up move will be important today. We continue with our
advice to book profits on existing long positions and wait for more
signs/confirmation for fresh trades.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 20700 Resistance 1 – 21600
Support 2 – 20530 Resistance 2 – 21830
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Sensex (34110) / Nifty (10062)
For the third consecutive session, our markets opened with an
upside gap, owing to positive cues from the global bourses.
Yesterday, it was certainly a notable opening because we started
the proceedings convincingly beyond the 10000 mark. In fact, the
buying momentum continued as the day progressed to hasten
towards 10200. However, market suddenly took a nosedive
towards the fag end of the day and within a blink of an eye, we
were considerably off day’s high. In the midst of this, Nifty
managed to close inside the positive territory.
Last couple of weeks have been excellent for our markets and in
the process, we finally reclaimed the five digit mark of 10000.
Yesterday’s extended move was clearly propelled by the banking
space and at one point of time, we could see crazy up move in
Banknifty as if there is no tomorrow. But somewhere market has
to oblige the law of gravity and this is what we saw in last 45
minutes of trade. The BankNifty literally nosedived and within no
time, shaved off sizeable portion of gains. Practically, such in
between reality checks are important for markets as it eliminates
complacent traders from the market.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 10000 Resistance 1 – 10150
Support 2 – 9900 Resistance 2 – 10200
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Now technically speaking, we have seen a series of upward gaps and
hence, yesterday’s can be termed as a ‘Continuation gap’. We hope
the same remains unfilled in coming days, because an immediate
gap filling process will lead to ‘Exhaustion Gap’ and the same
generally applies brakes on the ongoing momentum. We need to
see how market behaves especially BankNifty (because the daily
formation is not encouraging). For Nifty, 10000 followed by 9900
would be seen as crucial supports; whereas on the flipside, it would
be important to surpass 10200 in order to continue this upmove
towards 10400-10600 levels.
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Nifty Vs OI
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
9200
9400
9600
9800
10000
10200
,0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
5/19 5/20 5/21 5/22 5/26 5/27 5/28 5/29 6/1 6/2 6/3
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
V
iew
s
Post the gap up opening, the indice traded with a
positive bias for most part of the session. However,
markets gave up some of the gains sharply in the last
45 minutes of the day and ended with gains of about
0.83% in Nifty and with gains of a couple of percent in
Bank Nifty.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 1851 crores. In index futures, they bought
worth 532 crores with an increase in open interest
indicating longs created and shorts unwinded in
yesterday’s session.
In yesterday's session, open interest in Nifty saw
marginal decline while the open interest in Bank Nifty
declined by 6.52 percent. FII's bought equities in the
cash segment while they were net buyers in index
futures too. Their 'Long Short Ratio' in index futures is
currently around 63 percent. In options segment, 9900
& 10000 call options witnessed unwinding of positions
whereas fresh addition was seen in 10000 put option.
As of now, derivatives data continues to be bullish and
hence, traders are advised to continue to trade with a
positive bias and use intraday decline as a buying
opportunity.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 0.86%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 6.52%
as market closed at 10061.55 levels.
The Nifty June future closed with a premium of 10.25
point against a discount of 16.15 point in last trading
session. The July series closed at a premium of 1.4 points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 30.11 to 30.04
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty remained
unchanged at 1.59.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are NATIONALUM, UBL, COLPAL, IOC and
CONCOR.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
GODREJPROP 467350 28.62 832.30 8.01
MFSL 2704000 16.33 451.70 -3.06
RBLBANK 21477200 15.03 130.75 2.20
TORNTPHARM 1569000 12.88 2307.70 -2.45
MGL 1653000 12.22 1013.85 4.80
HDFCLIFE 15008000 10.24 501.35 0.89
UBL 1230600 9.94 935.45 -2.67
PNB 73314200 7.72 30.25 3.07
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
ADANIPOWER 35290000 -30.67 37.70 -6.92
IDEA 284508000 -26.00 8.10 3.85
MUTHOOTFIN 1526250 -17.71 922.85 2.09
EQUITAS 9304200 -15.81 48.60 1.15
MOTHERSUMI 22541000 -15.53 100.90 0.00
BAJAJFINSV 785250 -13.46 5286.10 2.27
MINDTREE 1252000 -11.18 908.35 -1.63
BAJFINANCE 5818250 -10.34 2411.95 2.31
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.59 0.98
BANKNIFTY 1.11 0.81
RELIANCE 0.86 0.49
ICICIBANK 0.86 0.63
INFY 0.63 0.52
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
INDIGO 55.62
GODREJPROP 66.46
BOSCHLTD 49.49
MGL 52.19
M&M 54.17
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (June Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
10061.55
FII Statistics for June 03, 2020
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
6955.72
6424.08
531.64
127769
8712.13
3.76
INDEX
OPTIONS
288560.52
288721.66
(161.14) 699598
46137.50
11.42
STOCK
FUTURES
19433.89
17798.36
1635.53
1528013
81093.82
(1.96)
STOCK
OPTIONS
3639.10
3663.29
(24.19) 63010
3588.78
13.57
Total 318589.23
316607.39
1981.84
2418390
139532.23
2.25
Turnover on June 03, 2020
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 7,13,351 38191.99 18.35
Index Options 2,94,80,524
15,75,916.07 50.93
Stock Futures 11,06,385 57025.46 8.14
Stock Options 9,88,436 54637.17 9.17
Total 3,22,88,696
17,25,770.69 46.35
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 10100 254.75
48.70 51.30 10148.70
Sell 10200 206.05
Buy 10100 254.75
92.00 108.00 10192.00
Sell 10300 162.75
Buy 10200 206.05
43.30 56.70 10243.30
Sell 10300 162.75
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 10100 333.35
51.85 48.15 10048.15
Sell 10000 281.50
Buy 10100 333.35
94.95 105.05 10005.05
Sell 9900 238.40
Buy 10000 281.50
43.10 56.90 9956.90
Sell 9900 238.40
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
9500 9600 9700 9800 9900 10000 10100 10200 10300 10400 10500 10600 10700 10800
Call Put
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Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
332
336
340
344
349
ASIANPAINT 1,684 1,700
1,722
1,738
1,760
AXISBANK
389
399
416
426
442
BAJAJ-AUTO 2,704 2,744
2,810
2,850
2,916
BAJFINANCE 2,337 2,374
2,436
2,473
2,534
BAJAJFINSV 5,032 5,159
5,344
5,472
5,657
BPCL
333
341
347
356
362
BHARTIARTL
537
545
556
56
4
575
INFRATEL
209
214
221
226
233
BRITANNIA 3,326 3,418
3,563
3,655
3,800
CIPLA
628
635
642
649
656
COALINDIA
139
140
143
144
147
DRREDDY 3,876 3,919
3,955
3,998
4,033
EICHERMOT 17,114
17,329
17,614
17,829
18,114
GAIL
94
95
97
9
8
101
GRASIM
582
590
600
608
618
HCLTECH
551
557
563
568
574
HDFCBANK
997
1,010
1,028
1,041
1,059
HDFC 1,803 1,819
1,839
1,856
1,876
HEROMOTOCO
2,240
2,270
2,321
2,351
2,401
HINDALCO
140
142
144
146
149
HINDUNILVR 2,054 2,087 2,1
18
2,151
2,182
ICICIBANK
342
349
361
369
380
IOC
85
86
87
89
90
INDUSINDBK
411
422
437
448
463
INFY
687
694
703
710
719
ITC
192
195
198
200
203
JSW STEEL
188
190
194
196
200
KOTAKBANK 1,300 1,343
1,386
1,429
1,472
LT
945
953
963
971
981
M&M
455
470
481
496
508
MARUTI 5,461 5,543
5,687
5,769
5,913
NESTLEIND 16,991
17,199
17,361
17,569
17,730
NTPC
92
93
96
97
99
ONGC
84
85
86
87
89
POWERGRID
162
163
165
167
169
RELIANCE 1,518 1,530
1,545
1,557
1,572
SHREECEM 21,051
21,341
21,540
21,830
22,029
SBIN
168
171
176
179
184
SUNPHARMA
468
472
477
481
486
TCS 2,000 2,023
2,043
2,067
2,087
TATAMOTORS
95
97
99
101
103
TATASTEEL
308
313
320
324
331
TECHM
541
547
556
563
572
TITAN
964
974
990
1,000
1,015
ULTRACEMCO 3,797 3,827
3,873
3,903
3,949
UPL
407
413
423
430
440
VEDANTA
92
94
98
101
105
WIPRO
206
209
213
216
220
ZEEL
185
191
198
203
210
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]g.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]roking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com