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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 04, 2020
Sensex (
39872
) / Nifty
1708
)
Post the sharp selloff seen on the Budget day, the index started
trading for the week marginally lower. However, the index
managed to find some support near 11600 mark and showed
some pullback during the day to end tad above 11700.
In just a matter of two weeks, the Nifty has corrected sharply from
12400 to almost test the 11600 mark and it tested the '200 SMA'
after mid-October 2019. Around this support, there are other
indicators such as 161% reciprocal retracement of the rise from
11929.60 to 12430.50 and the 50% retracement of the entire up
move from 10670.25 to 12430.50 which coincides in the range
of 11580-11660. Although the market breadth was even-steven
yesterday, many of the recent outperformers from the broader
markets witnessed buying momentum with good volumes which
was a positive sign. Since, the major event is behind us, all eyes
would now again be on the global markets movement and the
upcoming RBI monetary policy. Technically, since we have
already corrected sharply and are now in the vicinity of the
support zone, a pullback move could be seen and hence, traders
are advised to avoid taking a contra call here.
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Nifty Bank Outlook
-
(
30023
)
Bank Nifty Index started on a flat note and after an initial hiccup
bounced back in the remaining part of the session to eventually
end with gains of 0.68% to close back above the 30000 mark.
Post the Saturday's sharp sell-off the bank index witnessed a
bounce back as the hourly oscillators were in the deep oversold
territory and as the bank index approached the key support level
of 61.8% retracement of the recent rally (27568-32613). On the
daily chart, the bank Index has closed tad below the 200SMA
however the way some of the private banks showed strength the
bank index may see further upside in the near term towards
30230 30450 mark. On the flip side, support is placed around
29880 29500 levels. Traders are advised to have stock specific
long approach from the sector which are likely to give good risk
to reward ratio.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 29880 Resistance 1 – 30230
Support 2 – 29500 Resistance 2 – 30450
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Infact, stocks which are trading near their 52
-
week highs and are
witnessing good volumes could still provide decent returns in the
near term and thus, traders should look to capitalize on such
opportunities. The immediate support is for Nifty is placed in the
above mentioned range of 11580-11660, whereas resistances are
seen around 11800 and 11930.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 11660 Resistance 1 – 11800
Support 2 – 11580 Resistance 2 – 11930
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Nifty Vs OI
11200
11400
11600
11800
12000
12200
12400
12600
,0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
1
-
7
1
-
9
1
-
13
1
-
15
1
-
20
1
-
22
1
-
27
1
-
29
1
-
31
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
Views
Post the sharp sell of the Budget day, yesterday the
market started marginally lower and then bounced
back gradually from crucal levels to end with of 0.39%
at 11707.90.
FIIs continued their selling streak in the cash market
segment, they sold to the tune of Rs. 1200 crores. In
index futures, they bought of worth Rs. 406 crores with
rise in open interest, indicating some long long
formation in Yesterday’s session.
In the expiry week, we hardly saw any relevant open
interest addition MoM and the rollover were also below
the averages. In the correction seen in last 2-3 trading
session, we saw addition of huge short positions in
Nifty and BankNifty Futures. However, some covering
of short positions took place in yesterday’s session.
Considering yesterday’s respite and development in
F&O data, we expect 11600 to act as an immediate
support. Thus, traders are advised trading in individual
counters for the time being and avoiding any bearish
bets in index.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 0.40%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 3.84%
as market closed at 11703.15 levels.
The Nifty February future closed with a discount of 4.8
points against a discount of 6.95 points in last trading
session. The March series closed at a premium of
35.2points.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 16.83 to 17.17.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has increased from
0.86 to 0.96.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are IDEA, GMRINFRA, HINDALCO, SRTRANSFIN
and SIEMENS.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
CENTURYTEX 4051200 24.14 562.20 -5.51
ESCORTS 4942300 23.81 847.15 9.15
HEROMOTOCO 2316400 15.46 2376.25 -1.62
BAJAJ-AUTO 1835000 14.01 3284.75 4.56
IBULHSGFIN 24766800 11.12 256.60 -7.74
MANAPPURAM 19542000 9.59 184.10 -0.27
ONGC 107579900 8.56 103.45 -0.85
TVSMOTOR 5127300 8.42 471.30 1.99
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
MFSL 6123000 -17.28 477.10 8.76
INDUSINDBK 13474400 -9.85 1263.10 4.20
RAMCOCEM 1761600 -8.48 790.80 3.56
CUMMINSIND 1625400 -6.62 560.95 0.62
JUBLFOOD 2733000 -5.64 1955.40 3.94
MINDTREE 879200 -3.60 902.75 2.23
ACC 3950000 -3.19 1456.55 1.56
MOTHERSUMI 21285000 -3.03 125.15 -2.14
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 0.96 0.77
BANKNIFTY 0.70 0.83
RELIANCE 0.48 0.46
ICICIBANK 0.46 0.62
INFY 0.46 0.52
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
HINDUNILVR 28.56
ASIANPAINT 36.23
BAJAJ-AUTO 27.35
PIDILITIND 33.15
BRITANNIA 31.17
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 04, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (February Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot
=
11707.90
Lot Size = 75
FII Statistics for
February
03
, 2020
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
6410.66
6004.48
406.18
184964
15016.13
1.60
INDEX
OPTIONS
299671.76
296764.09
2907.67
692671
55630.51
5.91
STOCK
FUTURES
17783.56
16999.78
783.78
1535732
96402.09
2.34
STOCK
OPTIONS
6178.43
6207.73
(29.30) 48810
3102.84
13.24
Total 330044.41
325976.08
4068.33
2462177
170151.57
3.46
Turnover on
February
03
, 20
20
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
400853 29237.39 -36.89
INDEX
OPTIONS
16636464 1191768.90 -5.83
STOCK
FUTURES
873853 56672.35 6.99
STOCK
OPTIONS
787632 54881.30 -11.98
TOTAL 1,86,98,802
1332559.94 -6.63
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
11700 174.60
47.60 52.40 11747.60
Sell
11800 127.00
Buy
11700 174.60
87.95 112.05 11787.95
Sell
11900 86.65
Buy
11800 127.00
40.35 59.65 11840.35
Sell
11900 86.65
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11700 172.85
40.45 59.55 11659.55
Sell 11600 132.40
Buy 11700 172.85
73.55 126.45 11626.45
Sell 11500 99.30
Buy 11600 132.40
33.10 66.90 11566.90
Sell 11500 99.30
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
11200 11300 11400 11500 11600 11700 11800 11900 12000 12100 12200 12300 12400 12500
Call
Put
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February 04, 2020
Da
ily
Pivot
Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIPORTS 350 359
364 373 379
ASIANPAINT 1,727 1,797
1,835 1,905 1,943
AXISBANK 689 699
706 716 723
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,038 3,161
3,238 3,361 3,438
BAJFINANCE 4,202 4,281
4,329 4,407 4,456
BAJAJFINSV 8,719 8,902
9,069 9,252 9,419
BPCL 434 447
455 468 476
BHARTIARTL 489 500
506 517 524
INFRATEL 208 219
233 244 259
BRITANNIA 3,034 3,132
3,190 3,289 3,347
CIPLA 434 439
445 450 456
COALINDIA 169 174
177 181 184
DRREDDY 3,089 3,117
3,145 3,172 3,201
EICHERMOT 19,060 19,472
19,924 20,335 20,788
GAIL 111 113
116 118 122
GRASIM 738 759
771 792 804
HCLTECH 567 573
583 589 600
HDFCBANK 1,169 1,181
1,189 1,201 1,210
HDFC 2,192 2,226
2,262 2,296 2,332
HEROMOTOCO 2,290 2,333
2,401 2,444 2,512
HINDALCO 177 180
183 185 188
HINDUNILVR 2,029 2,104
2,150 2,225 2,270
ICICIBANK 495 505
512 522 529
IOC 104 106
109 111 114
INDUSINDBK 1,197 1,230
1,249 1,282 1,302
INFY 748 758
774 784 801
ITC 198 203
210 215 222
JSW STEEL 240 246
249 255 259
KOTAKBANK 1,617 1,647
1,664 1,693 1,710
LT 1,256 1,271
1,288 1,303 1,319
M&M 523 541
553 571 584
MARUTI 6,681 6,846
6,945 7,111 7,210
NESTLEIND 15,140 15,721
16,110 16,691 17,080
NTPC 105 108
110 112 114
ONGC 100 102
103 105 107
POWERGRID 173 180
185 192 196
RELIANCE 1,346 1,366
1,383 1,403 1,420
SBIN 289 293
300 305 312
SUNPHARMA 405 411
420 426 435
TCS 2,029 2,066
2,130 2,167 2,232
TATAMOTORS 155 160
164 168 173
TATASTEEL 408 422
431 445 453
TECHM 773 783
801 811 829
TITAN 1,151 1,169
1,180 1,198 1,210
ULTRACEMCO 4,181 4,276
4,331 4,426 4,482
UPL 499 506
512 519 524
VEDANTA 131 132
135 136 139
WIPRO 233 235
238 240 243
YESBANK 34 35
37 38 39
ZEEL 246 251
256 262 267
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 04, 2020
*
Research Team Tel: 022
-
39357800
Website:
www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelbroking.com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.des[email protected]elbroking.com
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