www.angelbroking.com
Technical & Derivatives Report
February 03
, 2020
Sensex (
39736
(1
16
62
)
The week started with ‘Coronavirus’ threat increasing rapidly
across the globe. Although, we too reacted to this development,
the negativity was not as high as it was in the global peers as
participants were mainly focusing on our mega event i.e. ‘Union
Budget’. But it turned out to be a nightmare for the bulls as we
saw sharp cut on the budget day; courtesy to not so encouraging
announcements from the Finance Minister. In the process, Nifty
ended the extended week with a massive cut of nearly 5% to the
previous week’s close.
Honestly speaking, this is not the kind of event one would have
expected for. Participants were quite hopeful of hearing some
positive announcement from the Finance minister. But eventually
they left dejected and this is what we could see from such
reaction. Now, if we try to analyse the chart, we can see index
hastening towards its 200-SMA’ before anyone could realise it.
In fact, there are multiple indicators that converge in the band of
nearly 100 points. This 200-SMA level of 11654 coincides with
161% reciprocal retracement of the rise from 11929.60 to
12430.50. In addition, the 50% retracement of the entire up
move from 10670.25 to 12430.50 comes around 11580. It does
not end here as we can see previous breakout point also at
11660. Looking at all these supports, bulls would remain a bit
hopeful now also. But yes, the confidence may have been
completely shaken with the velocity at which we fell on Saturday.
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Nifty Bank Outlook
-
(
29821
)
Post a consolidation for most part of the week, the Budget Day
was expected to give some directional move on either side to the
index. Unfortunately, the markets participants were disappointed
which led to a sharp sell-off and the index ended the session with
a loss of over 1000 points. In last few trading sessions ,the
BankNifty index had seen a consolidation phase ahead of the
mega event. Usually a consolidation before such event leads to
some volatility on the event day. While post the recent correction,
traders and investors would have liked to see a resumption of the
uptrend. But unfortunately, the markets witnessed a continuation
of the corrective phase and the index breach the 30000 mark at
closing. The index is now at such a point that neither the risk
reward is favorable to create shorts nor there are signs of
divergence or reversal. Hence, traders should prefer to stay light
on positions in such scenario and look for further cues in the near
future.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 29500 Resistance 1 – 30200
Support 2 – 29385 Resistance 2 – 30400
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Thus, first half of this week would be quite crucial for our market. If
we do not see any escalation on the global as well as domestic
front, we may see some recovery from the mentioned supports.
However, a failure to do so, one should get prepared for lower
levels. Although, the broader market too had undergone a severe
correction, the only ray of hope is the higher degree structure of the
‘Nifty MIDCAP 50’ index. The weekly and monthly time frame charts
as of now suggests a retracement move towards the breakout points
and hence, just keep your fingers crossed and hope for the
negativity to subside in this week. Till then better to stay light and
avoid taking undue risks.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 11630 Resistance 1 – 11800
Support 2 – 11580 Resistance 2 – 11830
www.angelbroking.com
Technical & Derivatives Report
February 03
, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
Views
We started off the week on a negative note and saw
follow-up selling towards the important support zone of
12000. On Wednesday, Nifty showed some respite in
the opening and managed to conclude above 12100
mark; however, this got sold into and we witnessed
extension of massive selling in next three sessions. On
Saturday, the benchmark index corrected another 2.5%
to conclude the week tad below 11700 mark.
FIIs continued their selling streak in the cash market
segment, they sold to the tune of Rs. 1200 crores. In
index futures, they sold of worth Rs. 1410 crores with
significant rise in open interest, indicating blend of long
and short on Saturday’s session.
In the expiry week, we hardly saw any relevant open
interest addition MoM and the rollover were also below
the averages. In last two sessions, we witnessed huge
addition of short positions in Nifty and BankNifty
Futures. Considering Saturday’s fall, we would advise
traders to wait for the follow-up move in the next 2-3
trading sessions before initiating any directional
positions.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 22.06%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased 33.85% as
market closed at 11661.85 levels.
The Nifty February future closed with a discount of 6.95
points against a premium of 32.20 points in last trading
session. The March series closed at a premium of
38.65points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 17.36 to 16.83.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased
from 1.04 to 0.86.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are COALINDIA, ICICIPRULI, ONGC, NMDC
and POWERGRID.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
COALINDIA 64662300 19.83 173.50 -6.39
ICICIPRULI 9960000 15.38 451.90 -11.83
ONGC 99097000 12.40 104.35 -5.75
NMDC 42498000 11.97 104.90 -12.09
POWERGRID 73392000 11.82 182.40 -4.27
BEL 56442000 10.37 84.95 -6.84
NTPC 146683200 10.17 109.30 -4.59
LICHSGFIN 10641800 9.02 402.30 -7.92
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
ESCORTS 3991900 -14.35 773.80 -3.57
MFSL 7402200 -14.18 437.25 -13.71
EQUITAS 19913600 -7.00 102.65 -5.91
CUMMINSIND 1740600 -5.98 562.15 -3.20
TORNTPHARM 388000 -5.94 1907.35 -1.50
CHOLAFIN 4302500 -5.65 318.55 -2.94
NIITTECH 730500 -5.62 1876.50 -3.24
TECHM 15853200 -5.54 807.55 0.78
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 0.86 0.57
BANKNIFTY 0.54 0.67
RELIANCE 0.52 0.40
ICICIBANK 0.40 0.53
INFY 0.56 0.43
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
ICICIPRULI 63.88
DLF 68.85
MFSL 80.57
ITC 39.71
HDFC 36.35
www.angelbroking.com
Technical & Derivatives Report
February 03
, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (February Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot
=
11
661.
85
Lot Size = 75
FII Statistics for
February
0
1, 2020
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
5986.52 7396.27 (1409.75) 182050 14756.71 24.27
INDEX
OPTIONS
183716.89 185048.09 (1331.20) 653991 52010.52 16.01
STOCK
FUTURES
6053.88 6140.61 (86.73) 1500606 93794.93 2.21
STOCK
OPTIONS
8845.21 8855.43 (10.22) 43102 2735.88 13.97
Total 204602.50
207440.40
(2837.90) 2379749
163298.04
7.38
Turnover on
February
0
1
, 20
20
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
615334 46326.34 51.51
INDEX
OPTIONS
17064122 1265546.90 126.52
STOCK
FUTURES
790050 52970.92 -14.37
STOCK
OPTIONS
861724 62347.84 24.53
TOTAL 1,93,31,230
1427192.00 103.54
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11700 176.15
41.60 58.40 11741.60
Sell 11800 134.55
Buy 11700 176.15
79.55 120.45 11779.55
Sell 11900 96.60
Buy 11800 134.55
37.95 62.05 11837.95
Sell 11900 96.60
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11700 223.15
43.70 56.30 11656.30
Sell 11600 179.45
Buy 11700 223.15
84.80 115.20 11615.20
Sell 11500 138.35
Buy 11600 179.45
41.10 58.90 11558.90
Sell 11500 138.35
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
www.angelbroking.com
Technical & Derivatives Report
February 03
, 2020
Da
ily
Pivot
Levels for Nifty Constitu
ents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIPORTS 354 358
365 369 376
ASIANPAINT 1,703 1,729
1,773 1,800 1,844
AXISBANK 682 694
714 726 746
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,070 3,107
3,161 3,198 3,252
BAJFINANCE 4,065 4,170
4,309 4,415 4,553
BAJAJFINSV 8,333 8,640
9,127 9,434 9,921
BPCL 421 432
448 460 476
BHARTIARTL 476 487
494 505 512
INFRATEL 235 241
246 252 257
BRITANNIA 2,993 3,045
3,133 3,185 3,273
CIPLA 430 437
445 452 459
COALINDIA 165 169
176 180 186
DRREDDY 3,077 3,100
3,120 3,143 3,163
EICHERMOT 19,501 19,780
20,189 20,468 20,877
GAIL 111 114
119 123 127
GRASIM 733 746
768 781 803
HCLTECH 573 582
590 599 607
HDFCBANK 1,170 1,184
1,206 1,220 1,242
HDFC 2,145 2,206
2,315 2,376 2,485
HEROMOTOCO 2,302 2,374
2,453 2,525 2,604
HINDALCO 179 182
186 189 193
HINDUNILVR 2,001 2,038
2,067 2,104 2,133
ICICIBANK 485 495
511 521 538
IOC 104 106
111 113 117
INDUSINDBK 1,155 1,183
1,223 1,251 1,291
INFY 758 769
780 791 802
ITC 201 210
225 234 248
JSW STEEL 234 239
248 254 263
KOTAKBANK 1,596 1,622
1,656 1,682 1,715
LT 1,213 1,250
1,317 1,354 1,421
M&M 500 522
552 575 604
MARUTI 6,518 6,665
6,888 7,035 7,257
NESTLEIND 14,980 15,252
15,457 15,730 15,934
NTPC 105 107
110 112 115
ONGC 99 102
106 108 112
POWERGRID 172 177
182 187 192
RELIANCE 1,338 1,361
1,394 1,417 1,450
SBIN 281 292
307 318 334
SUNPHARMA 409 416
427 434 445
TCS 2,019 2,092
2,136 2,209 2,253
TATAMOTORS 154 160
169 175 184
TATASTEEL 408 416
428 436 448
TECHM 749 778
795 824 841
TITAN 1,133 1,153
1,186 1,206 1,238
ULTRACEMCO 3,989 4,127
4,333 4,471 4,677
UPL 477 490
512 526 547
VEDANTA 130 133
136 138 141
WIPRO 232 234
237 239 242
YESBANK 36 37
39 40 41
ZEEL 240 246
258 264 276
www.angelbroking.com
Technical & Derivatives Report
February 03
, 2020
*
Research Team Tel: 022
-
39357800
Website:
www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch[email protected]gelbroking.com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
Angel Broking Limited (hereinafter referred to as “Angel”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay
Stock Exchange Limited and Metropolitan Stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and
Portfolio Manager and Investment Adviser with SEBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor. Angel Broking
Limited is a registered entity with SEBI for Research Analyst in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 vide registration
number INH000000164. Angel or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for
accessing /dealing in securities Market. Angel or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed
public offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months.
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should
make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the
companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine
the merits and risks of such an investment.
Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
fundamentals. Investors are advised to refer the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports available on our website to evaluate the
contrary view, if any.
The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable
sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this
document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way
responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.
Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify,
nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While
Angel Broking Limited endeavors to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory,
compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.
This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,
redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.
Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in
connection with the use of this information.