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March 02, 2021
Technical & Derivatives Report
Nifty
Bank Out
look
-
(
35296)
Friday’s massive correction was followed by a surprising gap up in
our market on the back of strong global cues to kick-off the
March month. Subsequently, we witnessed tremendous volatility
throughout the remaining day as markets were giving bigger
swings on both sides. However at the end, the bulls held their
nerves and managed to maintain its positive posture to end with
nearly one and half percent gains.
The banking index did manage to follow our benchmark post the
opening but it should be considered a relative underperformance
from the BANKNIFTY. This is because it’s a high beta index and
most importantly, it had fallen sharply on Friday. So ideally the
rebound should have been bigger than the Nifty. Although
markets had a surprising rebound yesterday, we are still not
completely out of the woods. As of now, we interpret this as a
mere bounce back due to the oversold position on Friday. For the
coming session, 35600 – 35900 remains to be a sturdy wall;
whereas on the flipside, 34980 34650 are the levels to watch
out for. Traders are advised not to get carried away by yesterday’s
move and should ideally stay light on positions.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 34980 Resistance 1 – 35600
Support 2 – 34650 Resistance 2 – 35900
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Se
nsex
(
49850)
/ Nifty
(
14762
)
The Asian markets traded firm in the morning as the U.S. stimulus
package led to optimism amongst market participants. In line with
these global cues, our markets too opened on a positive note
above the 14700 mark. The index then traded within a range
wherein the intraday dip around noon witnessed buying interest
and the index ended with gains of over and and a half percent at
14760.
It was a day of relief post the carnage that we had seen in Friday’s
session in the key indices. The global markets cheered on the back
of the passage of U.S. stimulus package. In yesterday’s session,
there were a lot of sector/stock specific action especially from the
broader markets which kept buzzing throughout the day.
Technically, we would consider this as a pullback move as of now as
we have a Lower Top Lower Bottom’ structure on Nifty and until
that is violated again, we are not out of the woods yet. Hence, it
would be prudent to avoid aggressive trades at the moment and
rather be very stock specific for trading till we resume the broader
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
On the upside, 14900-15000 will be the immediate resistance
range for the index and one should look to lighten up trading
longs on pullback towards this range. A move above the recent
swing high of 15178 will only negate the recent short term
corrective structure. On the flipside, 14630 followed by 14500 are
the immediate supports for the index.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 14630 Resistance 1 – 14900
Support 2 – 14500 Resistance2 – 15000
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 02, 2021
Nifty Vs OI
14000
14200
14400
14600
14800
15000
15200
15400
,0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2/9 2/12 2/17 2/19 2/23 2/25 3/1
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
Post Friday’s sharp fall, we began the week on a
optimistic note tad above 14700 mark. During the day,
index rallied towards 14800; however, we did see
decent profit booking at higher levels to drag index
below 14650. Once again we witnessed some buying
interest coming at the lows to recoup all the intraday
losses. Finally, index concluded the volatile session
above 14750 mark.
FIIs activity in the cash segment remained muted. In
Index Future segment they bought worth Rs. 1498
crores with fall in open interest indicating short covering
in yesterday’s session
.
In index futures segment, we saw decent open interest
reduction; whereas, banking index added mixed
positions in previous session. The overall activity on the
Nifty call side, remained insignificant. On the other side,
14700 put strikes added decent positions. The stronger
hands in last two sessions preferred exiting longs and
adding fresh shorts. This has resulted, their index
futures ‘Long Short Ratio’ declining from 76% to 67%.
Considering the options activity, we believe 14800-
14900 shall act as a tough hurdle; whereas, 14650-
14700 is an immediate support zone.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 6.36%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 7.94%
as market closed at 14761.55 levels.
The Nifty March future closed with a premium of 36.20
point against a premium of 49.30 point in last trading
session. The April series closed at a premium of 106.90
point.
The INDIA VIX decreased from 28.14. to 25.62.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty increased from
0.93 to 1.05.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are IDEA, ADANIPORTS, MRF, AARTIIND and
TORNTPOWER.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
AARTIIND 457725 17.70 1269.15 3.47
BANKBARODA 128852100 16.18 83.35 -3.06
ZEEL 40347000 13.65 216.85 8.18
BAJAJ-AUTO 1905250 10.88 3814.00 0.40
BHARTIARTL 107271003 10.63 532.20 -4.14
BEL 32702800 9.19 145.95 6.58
PNB 200464000 8.70 40.80 -0.12
HAVELLS 3781000 8.06 1112.15 0.65
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
MARUTI 2949000 -9.65 7015.10 1.97
BERGEPAINT 3602500 -8.70 718.65 5.58
M&M 8929200 -8.12 819.45 1.35
ICICIPRULI 6825000 -6.97 472.15 1.91
MINDTREE 1013600 -6.91 1634.15 1.96
TITAN 6459750 -5.31 1452.20 3.20
TATACHEM 9294000 -4.74 743.50 0.69
ULTRACEMCO 1490200 -4.68 6364.95 3.79
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.05 0.87
BANKNIFTY 0.70 0.97
RELIANCE 0.47 0.45
ICICIBANK 0.48 0.51
INFY 0.61 0.38
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
POWERGRID 38.61
BERGEPAINT 39.23
MRF 40.19
BEL 54.48
MOTHERSUMI 69.89
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 02, 2021
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (March Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
14761.55
FII Statistics for March 01, 2021
Detail Buy
Net Contracts
Open Interest
Sell
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
INDEX
FUTURES
8984.03
12790.39
(3806.36) 137603
14449.17
12.86
INDEX
OPTIONS
431940.94
428562.00
3378.94
743784
77252.15
38.63
STOCK
FUTURES
22845.50
23545.47
(699.97) 1186017
100112.74
3.45
STOCK
OPTIONS
16351.20
16621.58
(270.38) 98806
8354.13
51.59
Total 480121.67
481519.44
(1397.77) 2166210
200168.19
15.83
Turnover on March 01, 2021
Instrum
ent
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 3,59,861 35563.26 -51.06
Index Options
2,49,14,040
24,48,615.93 -10.19
Stock Futures 6,98,491 65362.51 -36.12
Stock Options
11,54,115
1,10,548.23 -24.49
Total 2,71,26,507
26,60,089.93 -12.73
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 14800 371.20
51.50 48.50 14851.50
Sell 14900 319.70
Buy 14800 371.20
99.60 100.40 14899.60
Sell 15000 271.60
Buy 14900 319.70
48.10 51.90 14948.10
Sell 15000 271.60
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 14800 372.80
40.80 59.20 14759.20
Sell 14700 332.00
Buy 14800 372.80
81.90 118.10 14718.10
Sell 14600 290.90
Buy 14700 332.00
41.10 58.90 14658.90
Sell 14600 290.90
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
14000 14100 14200 14300 14400 14500 14600 14700 14800 14900 15000 15100 15200 15300
Call Put
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 02, 2021
Da
ily
Pivot Level
s for
Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
659
676
690
707
722
ASIANPAINT 2,274 2,318
2,344
2,388
2,414
AXISBANK
710
719
731
741
753
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,700 3,757
3,808
3,865
3,916
BAJFINANCE 5,102 5,185
5,277
5,359
5,452
BAJAJFINSV 9,511 9,642
9,745
9,877
9,980
BPCL
443
449
456
463
470
BHARTIARTL
499
516
537
554
576
BRITANNIA 3,347 3,379
3,400
3,432
3,453
CIPLA
772
781
791
800
809
COALINDIA
152
153
155
156
158
DIVISLAB 3,339 3,400
3,443
3,504
3,546
DRREDDY 4,366 4,410
4,444
4,488
4,522
EICHERMOT 2,469 2,513
2,541
2,584
2,612
GAIL
141
143
144
146
147
GRASIM 1,178 1,222
1,246
1,290
1,314
HCLTECH
908
919
927
938
946
HDFCBANK 1,526 1,542
1,557
1,574
1,589
HDFCLIFE
693
699
706
712
720
HDFC 2,524 2,565
2,590
2,631
2,656
HEROMOTOCO 3,208 3,279
3,321
3,392
3,434
HINDALCO
330
337
342
349
354
HINDUNILVR 2,116 2,130
2,142
2,156
2,168
ICICIBANK
595
602
607
613
618
IOC
99
100
101
102
102
INDUSINDBK 1,042 1,055
1,076
1,089
1,109
INFY 1,245 1,256
1,270
1,281
1,296
ITC
203
205
206
208
210
JSW STEEL
387
396
402
411
417
KOTAKBANK 1,780 1,813
1,834
1,866
1,887
LT 1,418 1,445
1,466
1,493
1,513
M&M
793
806
829
843
866
MARUTI 6,873 6,944
6,988
7,060
7,104
NESTLEIND 15,986
16,139
16,253
16,407
16,521
NTPC
106
107
108
110
111
ONGC
112
114
116
119
120
POWERGRID
213
220
224
232
236
RELIANCE 2,043 2,072
2,092
2,122
2,142
SBILIFE
842
859
869
886
896
SHREECEM 26,148
26,927
27,380
28,159
28,612
SBIN
388
391
395
398
401
SUNPHARMA
590
597
604
611
618
TCS 2,867 2,896
2,930
2,959
2,994
TATAMOTORS
318
323
328
333
337
TATASTEEL
700
715
727
742
754
TECHM
909
923
940
953
970
TITAN 1,396 1,424
1,445
1,473
1,494
ULTRACEMCO 6,089 6,227
6,308
6,446
6,528
UPL
562
576
584
599
607
WIPRO
405
410
414
419
424
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 02, 2021
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries E-mail: [email protected]angelbroking.com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivat[email protected]m
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]roking.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]roking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com