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Technical & Derivatives Report
November 01, 2019
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oking.com
Sensex (40129) / Nifty (11877)
Yesterday morning, the global cues were excellent and the set up
was just ideal to have a good head-start for the day. In-line with
this, the Nifty opened higher by nearly half a percent and within
first 10 minutes of trade, 11900 was on the screen. After this, we
had a gradual up move for the major part of the day. However,
precisely at the stroke of the penultimate hour, market started
giving up its gains rapidly and eventually we pared down decent
portion of it to conclude the October series tad below the 11900
mark.
The tail end correction was mainly due to some announcement
from China with respect to recent trade war talks. On the
domestic front, it coincided with the October month derivative
expiry and eventually, spoiled the party for those who took a
punt for it to pan out beyond 11900. Nonetheless, the expiry
was spectacular for the bulls, especially the latter half; because
the overall market breadth improved tremendously in this
period. Now, if we look at the daily chart, the daily candle
indicates some indecision as it resembles a ‘Spinning Top’. Here,
we interpret this as an indecision or a profit booking after recent
relentless rally; but certainly does not construe this as a sign of
caution. In our sense, the northward trajectory is likely to
continue and soon we are likely to be heading towards the
‘Budget Day high of 11981.75. In fact, the rally can get
extended beyond 12000 as well.
Exhibit 1: Nifty
Chart
Nifty Bank Outlook
-
(
30066
)
The BankNifty started yesterday's session on a positive note and
rallied higher during the day to test 30400. However, on this
F&O expiry session, the index gave up much of the gains in the
last hour of the trade and ended with gains of about a quarter of
a percent. The Banking space witnessed good momentum during
yesterday's session post opening. Especially the PSU Banking
space witnessed good momentum post a gap up opening led by
the index heavyweight SBI. However, the BankNifty resisted
around a falling trendline resistance which we had also
mentioned about in our yesterday's report. The last hour
correction from the resistance does not give a rosy picture at
close and hence, yesterday's high around 30415 would now be
seen as a near term resistance. The index needs to surpass this to
continue the momentum towards 30800 or else we could see
some consolidation/correction within this broader uptrend in
next few sessions. Traders are advised to be selective in stock
picking and trade with the above mentioned scenario into
consideration.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 29800 Resistance 1 – 30350
Support 2 – 29700 Resistance 2 – 30400
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank
Chart
For the coming session,
yesterday
’s low of
11855
would be seen
as a crucial support and in case of breaching this convincingly,
we may see further profit booking towards 11800 11776. In
such scenario, this decline will provide excellent opportunity for
traders to go long around mentioned support levels with a
positional perspective. Meanwhile, avoid aggressive trades and
keep focusing on individual stocks for better trading
opportunity.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 11800 Resistance 1 – 11980
Support 2 – 11776 Resistance 2 – 12000
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Nifty Vs OI
Views
October F&O expiry session started on a positive note;
however it faced resistance as it approached the
vicinity of 12k mark. During the last hour, index gave
away most of the morning gains and eventually ended
with gains of 0.28% at 11877.45.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 1870.87 cr. In Index futures, they bought
worth Rs. 344 crores with a fall in open interest, mainly
due to expiry related adjustments.
In October series, Nifty posted gains of 2.65 percent in
which we had seen formation of long positions. The
rollover for Nifty stood at 84.09 percent which is
higher than the average. This indicates that good
amount of long positions formed in the October series
in the index have been rolled over. The BankNifty
index have relatively underperformed in October series
as we had seen some short positions in between. Now,
the rollover in BankNifty stands at 63.59 percent which
is below average. We take this as a positive signs as
this indicates that traders have not rolled over their
short positions in the BankNifty.The immediate
supports for the index is seen in the range of 11800-
11700 and due to the above mentioned reasons, we
advise traders to use a buy on declines approach and
trade with a positive bias.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by
23.19%. Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased
46.78% as market closed at 11877.45 levels.
The Nifty November future closed with a premium of
37.35 points against a premium of 45 points in last
trading session. The December series closed at a
premium of 69.45 points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 16.65 to 16.28.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has increased
from 1.27 to 1.33.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high
cost of carry are GMRINFRA, SIEMENS, CIPLA,
TATAPOWER and SHREECEM.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
MRF 20490 11.24 65675.80 1.17
NESTLEIND 536650 8.88 14947.25 -0.16
SRTRANSFIN 4259400 7.12 1138.65 -1.57
CIPLA 12959000 4.93 466.85 0.51
ESCORTS 4622200 4.81 659.35 -1.11
DIVISLAB 2621200 4.48 1755.10 1.01
YESBANK 156259400 3.40 70.40 24.01
L&TFH 38430000 2.40 95.60 1.86
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
INFRATEL 5502000 -36.47 189.70 3.68
APOLLOTYRE 7140000 -31.59 190.30 1.86
TORNTPHARM 337000 -31.01 1776.30 0.49
APOLLOHOSP 1626000 -29.21 1484.80 0.99
JUBLFOOD 2322500 -26.84 1600.90 1.85
CHOLAFIN 3470000 -26.09 305.00 -0.65
HEXAWARE 2148000 -24.23 332.75 0.71
UBL 1373400 -22.82 1276.05 0.58
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.33 0.97
BANKNIFTY 1.13 0.89
RELIANCE 0.96 0.47
ICICIBANK 0.85 0.54
INFY 1.50 0.49
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
YESBANK 183.26
TATAMOTORS 117.87
TVSMOTOR 56.43
TATAELXSI 51.31
VEDL 50.12
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November 01, 2019
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (November Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot
=
11877.45
Lot Size = 75
FII Statistics for
October
31, 2019
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
7397.28 7740.87 (343.59) 156999 13511.90 (20.94)
INDEX
OPTIONS
358636.54 351920.69 6715.85
511643 43040.54 (39.60)
STOCK
FUTURES
33944.71 32576.03 1368.68
1413838 88098.91 (4.54)
STOCK
OPTIONS
1553.63 1727.08 (173.45) 23865 1496.63 (74.50)
Total 401532.16
393964.67
7567.49
2106345
146147.98
(19.62)
Turnover on
October
31
, 2019
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
601290 45503.96 17.75
INDEX
OPTIONS
35160974 2368832.30 103.54
STOCK
FUTURES
2433503 135061.61 2.25
STOCK
OPTIONS
1269023 71357.68 8.83
TOTAL 3,94,64,790 2620755.55 87.18
Bull
-
Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11900 202.40
52.95 47.05 11952.95
Sell 12000 149.45
Buy 11900 202.40
97.35 102.65 11997.35
Sell 12100 105.05
Buy 12000 149.45
44.40 55.60 12044.40
Sell 12100 105.05
Bear
-
Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11900 190.40
37.60 62.40 11862.40
Sell 11800 152.80
Buy 11900 190.40
70.20 129.80 11829.80
Sell 11700 120.20
Buy 11800 152.80
32.60 67.40 11767.40
Sell 11700 120.20
Nifty Put
-
Call Analysis
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November 01, 2019
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Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS 390 393
396 399
403
ASIANPAINT 1,785 1,797
1,816 1,828 1,847
AXISBANK 722 729
739 747
757
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,196 3,222
3,238 3,264 3,280
BAJFINANCE 3,969 3,998
4,024 4,053 4,079
BAJAJFINSV 8,017 8,076
8,159 8,218 8,301
BPCL 516 521
526 531
536
BHARTIARTL 359 366
372 379
385
INFRATEL 171 181
187 196
202
BRITANNIA 3,200 3,233
3,288 3,322 3,377
CIPLA 454 460
467 473
479
COALINDIA 205 206
208 209
211
DRREDDY 2,745 2,764
2,789 2,809 2,834
EICHERMOT 22,127 22,333
22,506 22,712 22,886
GAIL 130 134
137 140
143
GRASIM 721 745
760 784
799
HCLTECH 1,126 1,144
1,157 1,176 1,189
HDFCBANK 1,204 1,217
1,240 1,254 1,277
HDFC 2,084 2,108
2,127 2,151 2,171
HEROMOTOCO
2,677
2,690
2,703
2,717
2,730
HINDALCO 184 186
188 190
193
HINDUNILVR 2,146 2,161
2,174 2,189 2,202
ICICIBANK 452 457
467 473
482
IOC 141 144
146 149
152
INDUSINDBK 1,262 1,287
1,316 1,341 1,370
INFY 653 669
682 699
712
ITC 252 255
259 262
266
JSW STEEL 221 225
231 234
240
KOTAKBANK 1,543 1,559
1,582 1,598 1,621
LT 1,456 1,465
1,476 1,484 1,495
M&M 593 600
611 617
629
MARUTI 7,426 7,493
7,569 7,636 7,712
NESTLEIND 14,596 14,772
14,959 15,135 15,322
NTPC 119 121
122 124
126
ONGC 139 140
141 143
144
POWERGRID 196 197
199 200
202
RELIANCE 1,444 1,454
1,472 1,482 1,500
SBIN 283 298
308 323
333
SUNPHARMA 423 428
434 440
446
TCS 2,216 2,243
2,264 2,291 2,312
TATAMOTORS 165 171
175 182
186
TATASTEEL 368 374
382 388
396
TECHM 722 731
745 753
768
TITAN 1,313 1,322
1,329 1,338 1,345
ULTRACEMCO 4,059 4,101
4,134 4,176 4,208
UPL 570 583
591 604
612
VEDANTA 145 147
149 151
153
WIPRO 252 255
258 262
264
YESBANK 44 57
68 81 92
ZEEL 224 242
253 272
283
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Technical & Derivatives Report
November 01, 2019
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*
Research Team Tel: 022
-
39357800
Website:
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For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelbroking.com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.des[email protected]gelbroking.com
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