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Technical & Derivatives Report
October
01
, 2019
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Sensex (
38
667
) / Nifty
(1
1
474
)
Our markets started the week on a mild negative note which was
followed by further weakness with selling seen in Banking and
Financial stocks. At a point, Nifty was trading with a loss of more
than 100 points however Index managed to find support around
the bullish gap left on last Monday and after a period of
consolidation triggered a smart bounce back. Eventually after a
volatile last hour, Nifty ended with a loss of 0.33% at 11474.
In our previous outlook, we had mentioned Index witnessing a
time-wise correction after the recent sharp rally of around 1000
points and 11400-11700 to act as a trading range. On the daily
chart, the mentioned lower range acted as strong floor and a
bounce back from the same resulted a small body candle with a
long lower wick; a formation quite similar to hammer pattern
which indicates demand at strong support levels. For today’s
session, a sustained trade above 11510 can trigger a move back
towards 11600 - 11700 whereas on the lower side 11370-
11400 continues to be a strong support zone.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 11400 Resistance 1 – 11510
Support 2 – 11370 Resistance 2 – 11600
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Nifty Bank Outlook
-
(
29
103
)
The Nifty Bank index started the week marginally negative. Post
openeing, the index corrected further and it even breached the
29000 mark. Although, it attempted to recover from the lows of
the day, but the intraday bounce did not sustain and the index
ended the session with a loss of more than two and a half
percent. The BankNifty has been witnessing some bumpy rides
since last few sessions. While the recent upmove was very sharp,
the correction in last few day's also have been steep and the
intraday range in the index have increased substantially. While
this volatitliy has led to deeper correction, there are still no signs
in the change in trend and thus we are anticipating this
downmove to be just a retracement. Thus, we haven't advised to
go short in last few sessions and we still maintian our stance to
avoid going against the broader trend. Infact, on the daily chart,
the index is now approaching the support range of 28650-28950
where there is a confluence of some moving averages along with
the retracement support. Hence, we advise traders to use this
correction as an opportunity to buy into the outperforming stocks
within this sector.The immediate resistance for the index is now
seen around 29500 and 29800, which we hope would be
surpassed soon.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 28950 Resistance 1 – 29500
Support 2 – 28650 Resistance 2 – 29800
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
The major culprit in yesterday’s session was Bank Nifty which
ended with a loss of more than 2.5% however we see bank
index approaching a multiple support zone formed by key
averages and retracement levels and hence a turnaround
from the same cannot be ruled out. We reiterate our view that
the directional bias remains positive as long we hold the
11200 mark and dips should be taken as a buying
opportunity.
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Technical & Derivatives Report
October
01
, 2019
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Nifty Vs OI
Views
We began Monday’s session slightly lower and saw
follow-up selling to drag index below 11400. However,
once agin Nifty found support around these levels and
managed to recover decent amount of losses to
conclude the session tad above 11450 mark.
FIIs were net sellers in cash market segment to the tune
of Rs. 469 cr. In index futures, they bought of worth
Rs. 701 cr with marginal fall in open interest, indicating
blend of fresh long formation along with some short
covering took place in yesterday’s session.
We began October series with decent long rollover
especially for Nifty. Whereas, in case of banking index
decent amount of unwinding was seen series on series
and yesterday BankNifty corrected 2.50% along with
massive open interest addition of 37%, the quantum of
shorts remains massive and isn’t a good development.
In options front, 11380-11400 acted as a sheet anchor
as we we saw decent writing in 11400 puts. At present,
we are hovering around the support zone and
considering recovery seen in latter half yesterday, we
would advise traders to hold on to your longs until we
sustain above the mentioned support.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 1.18%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased 37.35% as
market closed at 11474.45 levels.
The Nifty October future closed with a premium of 60.15
points against a premium of 67.10 points in last trading
session. The November series closed at a premium of
110.95 points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 16.11 to 15.87.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased
from 1.19 to 1.11.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are IDFCFIRSTB, PEL, RBLBANK, HDFCBANK and
HEXAWARE.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
IDFCFIRSTB 208560000 19.47 40.20 -8.82
PEL 5687264 13.06 1632.40 -6.15
RBLBANK 14840400 13.00 328.85 -9.98
HDFCBANK 39992500 10.97 1227.45 -1.35
HEXAWARE 2296500 9.59 380.35 1.60
BHARTIARTL 42336072 9.47 367.05 4.92
ESCORTS 5083100 9.04 580.40 -1.60
AXISBANK 59319600 8.80 685.00 -2.13
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
MANAPPURAM 12300000 -10.71 141.20 -1.70
CONCOR 4731201 -9.48 604.75 1.99
JUBLFOOD 2116000 -7.70 1359.40 -0.34
STAR 2584800 -7.67 307.70 1.39
ZEEL 30399200 -7.64 265.50 -2.96
MGL 1740600 -7.11 911.70 -0.97
MUTHOOTFIN 1620000 -6.82 675.90 -1.45
CHOLAFIN 2937500 -6.60 307.75 -0.72
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.11 0.77
BANKNIFTY 0.63 0.98
RELIANCE 0.90 0.51
ICICIBANK 0.55 0.64
INFY 1.36 0.53
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
IBULHSGFIN 213.22
IDFCFIRSTB 63.21
L&TFH 75.00
HCLTECH 29.11
YESBANK 137.48
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Technical & Derivatives Report
October
01
, 2019
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (October Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot
=
11
474.45
Lot Size = 75
FII Statistics for September
30
, 2019
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
4889.09 4188.34 700.75
146534 11908.01 (0.76)
INDEX
OPTIONS
196286.48 195262.61 1023.87
607535 47740.44 10.17
STOCK
FUTURES
14470.86 14652.67 (181.81) 1525047 90979.35 1.15
STOCK
OPTIONS
4274.88 4297.45 (22.57) 32376 1897.23 26.28
Total 219921.31
218401.07
1520.24
2311492
152525.03
3.54
Turnover on September
30
, 2019
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
410919 28645.36 23.27
INDEX
OPTIONS
12758019 874834.08 57.97
STOCK
FUTURES
995509 50847.35 12.29
STOCK
OPTIONS
728363 38889.33 20.34
TOTAL 1,48,92,810
993216.12 51.72
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11500 217.95
51.15 48.85 11551.15
Sell 11600 166.80
Buy 11500 217.95
94.70 105.30 11594.70
Sell 11700 123.25
Buy 11600 166.80
43.55 56.45 11643.55
Sell 11700 123.25
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11500 182.70
39.65 60.35 11460.35
Sell 11400 143.05
Buy 11500 182.70
71.15 128.85 11428.85
Sell 11300 111.55
Buy 11400 143.05
31.50 68.50 11368.50
Sell 11300 111.55
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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Technical & Derivatives Report
October
01
, 2019
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Da
ily
Pivot
Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIPORTS 397 406
411 420 425
ASIANPAINT 1,723 1,743
1,756 1,776 1,789
AXISBANK 663 674
693 704 723
BAJAJ-AUTO 2,863 2,895
2,935 2,968 3,008
BAJFINANCE 3,984 4,018
4,065 4,099 4,146
BAJAJFINSV 8,267 8,383
8,526 8,641 8,784
BPCL 459 466
473 480 486
BHARTIARTL 331 349
362 380 393
INFRATEL 247 252
256 261 265
BRITANNIA 2,876 2,916
2,970 3,010 3,064
CIPLA 410 418
425 433 440
COALINDIA 195 197
199 202 203
DRREDDY 2,660 2,681
2,712 2,733 2,764
EICHERMOT 17,077 17,421
17,711 18,055 18,344
GAIL 131 133
134 135 137
GRASIM 695 713
726 743 756
HCLTECH 1,020 1,050
1,073 1,104 1,127
HDFCBANK 1,204 1,216
1,228 1,239 1,251
HDFC 1,927 1,952
1,995 2,020 2,064
HEROMOTOCO 2,620 2,662
2,711 2,753 2,801
HINDALCO 182 187
189 194 196
HINDUNILVR 1,944 1,963
1,990 2,009 2,037
ICICIBANK 422 428
437 442 451
IOC 141 144
146 149 151
INDUSINDBK 1,272 1,328
1,402 1,458 1,531
INFY 775 791
799 814 823
ITC 245 253
257 264 268
JSW STEEL 219 225
228 233 236
KOTAKBANK 1,593 1,619
1,640 1,666 1,688
LT 1,433 1,454
1,469 1,490 1,505
M&M 530 539
549 557 567
MARUTI 6,547 6,623
6,717 6,793 6,886
NESTLEIND 13,542 13,716
13,854 14,028 14,166
NTPC 115 116
117 119 120
ONGC 127 129
131 134 135
POWERGRID 194 196
198 201 203
RELIANCE 1,295 1,314
1,325 1,344 1,355
SBIN 263 267
274 279 286
SUNPHARMA 377 383
393 399 409
TCS 2,044 2,072
2,088 2,116 2,132
TATAMOTORS 114 116
118 120 123
TATASTEEL 339 350
357 368 375
TECHM 689 703
710 723 730
TITAN 1,249 1,261
1,278 1,290 1,308
ULTRACEMCO 4,236 4,289
4,339 4,392 4,442
UPL 566 584
596 613 625
VEDANTA 149 152
154 156 159
WIPRO 234 237
239 242 244
YESBANK 36 39
44 47 52
ZEEL 241 253
264 276 287
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Technical & Derivatives Report
October
01
, 2019
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*
Research Team Tel: 022
-
39357800
Website:
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For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch[email protected]gelbroking.com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.des[email protected]elbroking.com
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