www.angelbroking.com
March 01, 2021
Technical & Derivatives Report
Nifty
Bank Out
-
(
34804
)
On Friday, Bank Nifty started with a gap down and remained under
pressure throughout the session to end with a loss of 4.78% tad
above 34800. In our last outlook, we had mentioned the mid-week
bounce has resisted around the 78.6% retracement of the recent
fall and with Friday's massive cut the bank index has now confirmed
a lower top at the mentioned resistance as well has confirmed a
lower bottom by breaking the recent low. The bears strongly grip
the momentum, and we sense any bounce back is likely to get sold.
As far as levels are concerned, 35200 - 35590 is the immediate
resistance whereas, 34000 - 33800 is the next support to watch
out for. With a spike in volatility, traders are advised to avoid
aggressive bets and have a proper exit setup for any trades.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 34000 Resistance 1 – 35200
Support 2 – 33800 Resistance 2 – 35590
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Se
nsex
(
49100
)
/ Nifty
(
14529
)
During the last week, Markets had a nervous start on Monday as we
saw Nifty sliding below the key support of 14900 to even test sub-
14700 levels. However, at the midst of the week, we witnessed a v-
shaped recovery in the market post some dramatic events.
Everything looked hunky dory as the February series ended
convincingly above the 15000 mark. But market was not done with
its twists yet as we saw a huge gap down on Friday on the back of
weak global cues. The selling augmented as the day progressed to
eventually mark biggest single day loss in last couple of months.
The one who follows ‘Technical Analysis’, gives more weightage to
the price action and importantly it’s the closing point that matters
the most than a starting or in between activity. If we relate this
concept to the price action in the week gone by, we did see some
healthy recovery at the midst; but all this positivity eventually went
for a toss on Friday. Fortunately, we did not get carried away by the
intra-week rally and waited for the convincing move beyond 15200
to change our stance. Market failed to surpass it and in fact, with a
massive broad based sell off, Nifty has sneaked below its recent
swing low of 14635.05 on a closing basis. This led to a confirmation
of first sign of trend reversal in the form of ‘Lower Top Lower Bottom’
on the daily time frame chart. The weekly chart already showed some
exhaustion in the previous week as we observed fatigue around the
strong resistance zone of 15380 15500 (which is the 161% ‘Golden
Ratio’ of the entire fall from Jan’20 highs to March’20 lows).
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Looking at the price structure, we expect this correction to extend
towards 14200 14000 levels first. Here, 14000 would be seen as
crucial ‘Trend Line’ support and a breach of this would open up
further space towards 13700 13500. Hence, we would be closely
observing how index behaves around 14000 in this week. For us, the
short term tide has turned downwards and the view will remain
intact as long as 15200 is not broken. On the immediate basis,
14750 14920 are to be seen as stiff hurdles. Traders should not
get intimidated if all the above mentioned scenarios turn into a
reality because the larger degree uptrend is still very much intact.
Since a long time, market has not seen any major correction, so this
should only be construed as a much awaited profit booking or a
short term corrective phase which is healthy in the longer run.
Momentum traders should avoid aggressive or leveraged longs for
a while; rather use decent declines to accumulate quality
propositions with the broader view.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 14200 Resistance 1 – 14750
Support 2 – 14000 Resistance2 – 14920
www.angelbroking.com
Technical & Derivatives Report
March 01, 2021
Nifty Vs OI
14000
14200
14400
14600
14800
15000
15200
15400
,0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2/9 2/12 2/17 2/19 2/23 2/25
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
We had a roller coaster ride for the expiry week as the
Nifty started with a sharp fall on Monday. However, it
recovered during midweek and ended the monthly expiry
above 15100. A sharp sell-off in global markets then led
to a gap down opening on the first day of the new series
and our markets witnessed a follow up selling to end the
week tab above 14500 mark.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash segment to the tune of
Rs.8295 crores. In Index Future segment they sold worth
Rs. 3806 crores with rise in open interest indicating short
formations and long unwinding on Friday
.
In options segment, writers preferred to sell call options
of 14800-15000 strikes on Friday which could limit the
upside on pullback moves. Some long build up was seen
in 14800 put option while the data indicates support
around 14200-14000. The Banking and the Auto space
witnessed short formations on Friday and thus, we could
see some further pressure in the coming week to drag
the index towards the mentioned support.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 15.37%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 41.27%
as market closed at 14529.15 levels.
The Nifty March future closed with a premium of 49.3
point against a premium of 72.15 point in last trading
session. The April series closed at a premium of 113.55
point.
The INDIA VIX increased from 22.89 to 28.14.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty decreased from
1.35 to 0.93.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are MPHASIS, IDEA, ALKEM, SUNPHARMA AND
JSWSTEEL.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
INDUSTOWER 13101200 30.23 257.80 -4.55
BANKBARODA 110904300 26.03 85.40 -3.98
SAIL 123595000 25.99 76.55 4.55
POWERGRID 13732000 23.89 214.30 -5.53
BERGEPAINT 3945700 23.26 679.85 -6.05
HDFCLIFE 8080600 20.94 700.65 -4.48
PNB 184416000 17.11 40.85 -4.39
BHARTIARTL 96962784 16.65 556.30 -3.72
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
L&TFH 29761540 -17.12 104.90 -2.34
M&MFIN 11676000 -13.56 203.70 -5.74
CUMMINSIND 1263600 -12.90 787.85 -2.47
BHARATFORG 6034500 -8.98 610.05 -1.96
HINDALCO 21844000 -8.65 340.25 -2.75
PVR 1549856 -7.97 1363.05 -4.69
ASHOKLEY 35118000 -7.56 128.85 -2.12
APOLLOTYRE 13480000 -6.36 232.10 -3.84
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 0.93 1.06
BANKNIFTY 0.57 1.10
RELIANCE 0.48 0.52
ICICIBANK 0.45 0.54
INFY 0.61 0.49
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
ALKEM 35.51
APLLTD 51.11
AUBANK 56.70
CUB 51.52
DEEPAKNTR 60.41
www.angelbroking.com
Technical & Derivatives Report
March 01, 2021
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (March Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
14529.15
FII Statistics for February 26, 2020
Detail Buy
Net Contracts
Open Interest
Sell
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
INDEX
FUTURES
8984.03
12790.39
(3806.36) 137603
14449.17
12.86
INDEX
OPTIONS
431940.94
428562.00
3378.94
743784
77252.15
38.63
STOCK
FUTURES
22845.50
23545.47
(699.97) 1186017
100112.74
3.45
STOCK
OPTIONS
16351.20
16621.58
(270.38) 98806
8354.13
51.59
Total 480121.67
481519.44
(1397.77) 2166210
200168.19
15.83
Turnover on February 26, 2020
Instrum
ent
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 7,33,800 72670.02 9.67
Index Options
2,74,17,497
27,26,556.56 -66.83
Stock Futures 11,11,447
1,02,317.43 -38.21
Stock Options
15,79,646
1,46,404.80 -11.05
Total 3,08,42,390
30,47,948.81 -64.62
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 14500 459.15
51.95 48.05 14551.95
Sell 14600 407.20
Buy 14500 459.15
98.40 101.60 14598.40
Sell 14700 360.75
Buy 14600 407.20
46.45 53.55 14646.45
Sell 14700 360.75
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 14500 391.85
44.70 55.30 14455.30
Sell 14400 347.15
Buy 14500 391.85
85.25 114.75 14414.75
Sell 14300 306.60
Buy 14400 347.15
40.55 59.45 14359.45
Sell 14300 306.60
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
14000 14100 14200 14300 14400 14500 14600 14700 14800 14900 15000 15100 15200 15300
Call Put
www.angelbroking.com
Technical & Derivatives Report
March 01, 2021
Da
ily
Pivot Level
s for
Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
647
661
682
697
718
ASIANPAINT 2,199 2,238
2,299
2,338
2,399
AXISBANK
694
709
734
749
774
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,668 3,733
3,838
3,904
4,008
BAJFINANCE 5,080 5,173
5,313
5,406
5,546
BAJAJFINSV 9,273 9,461
9,788
9,976
10,302
BPCL
426
438
452
464
478
BHARTIARTL
530
543
565
578
599
BRITANNIA 3,306 3,335
3,372
3,401
3,438
CIPLA
756
771
796
811
836
COALINDIA
143
147
155
160
168
DIVISLAB 3,232 3,298
3,392
3,457
3,551
DRREDDY 4,310 4,368
4,463
4,522
4,617
EICHERMOT 2,420 2,459
2,503
2,542
2,586
GAIL
135
138
144
148
154
GRASIM 1,141 1,171
1,221
1,250
1,300
HCLTECH
893
901
913
921
933
HDFCBANK 1,480 1,507
1,548
1,575
1,616
HDFCLIFE
672
686
709
723
745
HDFC 2,452 2,496
2,563
2,607
2,675
HEROMOTOCO 3,059 3,141
3,282
3,365
3,506
HINDALCO
327
333
342
348
356
HINDUNILVR 2,082 2,107
2,145
2,170
2,207
ICICIBANK
577
587
601
612
625
IOC
94
96
99
101
104
INDUSINDBK 1,034 1,049
1,066
1,080
1,097
INFY 1,228 1,241
1,257
1,270
1,287
ITC
200
202
205
207
210
JSW STEEL
374
385
403
414
432
KOTAKBANK 1,711 1,746
1,807
1,842
1,903
LT 1,399 1,421
1,457
1,479
1,515
M&M
762
784
821
843
879
MARUTI 6,668 6,767
6,921
7,020
7,174
NESTLEIND 15,849
15,976
16,130
16,256
16,410
NTPC
102
104
108
111
114
ONGC
105
108
113
116
122
POWERGRID
202
208
218
224
234
RELIANCE 2,034 2,060
2,097
2,123
2,160
SBILIFE
847
857
868
878
889
SHREECEM 25,247
25,874
26,797
27,425
28,348
SBIN
379
384
393
398
407
SUNPHARMA
571
583
602
614
633
TCS 2,823 2,859
2,916
2,951
3,008
TATAMOTORS
311
317
325
331
339
TATASTEEL
692
704
723
734
753
TECHM
894
906
928
940
961
TITAN 1,385 1,396
1,414
1,425
1,443
ULTRACEMCO 5,792 5,954
6,221
6,383
6,650
UPL
535
548
569
582
603
WIPRO
401
406
413
417
425
www.angelbroking.com
Technical & Derivatives Report
March 01, 2021
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalrese[email protected].com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: d[email protected]angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
Angel Broking Limited (hereinafter referred to as “Angel”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay
Stock Exchange Limited and Metropolitan Stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and
Portfolio Manager and Investment Adviser with SEBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor. Angel Broking
Limited is a registered entity with SEBI for Research Analyst in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 vide registration
number INH000000164. Angel or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for
accessing /dealing in securities Market. Angel or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed
public offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months.
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies
referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits
and risks of such an investment.
Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
fundamentals. Investors are advised to refer the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports available on our website to evaluate the
contrary view, if any.
The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable
sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this
document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way
responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.
Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot
testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document.
While Angel Broking Limited endeavors to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be
regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.
This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,
redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.
Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]oking.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]roking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com