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February 01, 2021
Technical & Derivatives Report
Nifty
Bank Out
look
-
(
30565)
Following the positive momentum of the last hour of expiry day, the
bank nifty started with a gap up opening. Subsequently, the bank
index traded in a range for the major part however in the last hour
similar to the expiry session we witnessed a strong upmove to mark
days high. Eventually, it seemed that the bank index is going to end
with strong gains but a sudden sell-off in the broader markets
erased some gains to finally end with gains of 0.68% at 30565.
During the previous week, we mentioned a double top bearish
breakdown which resulted in a sharp selloff of more than 3000
points from an all-time high to the intra-week low of 29687. With
high oversold conditions on hourly charts, the bank index has
managed to bounce back from the lower levels, and the way broader
markets have tumbled it's quite surprising the way the bank index
has performed in the last two days. However, we sense that we are
still not completely out of the woods and expect selling to re-
emerge at higher levels. Today as the budget will be announced we
are likely to see a spike in volatility hence traders are advised to
avoid aggressive bets . As far as levels are concerned, 30000 - 29600
is the immediate support whereas 31200 - 31700 is the resistance.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 30000 Resistance 1 – 31200
Support 2 – 29600 Resistance 2 – 31700
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Se
nsex
(
46286)
/ Nifty
(
13635
)
During the last week, we had a positive start to the last week of the
January month. However, it turned out to be a formality as markets
skidded in the initial hours not only to pare down gains but also to
enter a negative territory. Unlike recent trend, the corrective move got
extended beyond two trading sessions. In fact, as the week progressed,
things worsened to breach all intermediate key supports one after
another. Eventually, the Nifty ended the week tad above the 13600
mark with a massive cut over five percent on a weekly basis.
It was certainly a biggest weekly drop after September 2020 despite
being a truncated week. Before anyone could realize, Nifty wiped off
more than 1100 points in merely six trading sessions. Although it was
intimidating, we were not surprised of this sudden fall; because market
had hinted towards it and we continuously highlighted those caveats.
Markets were deeply overbought since many weeks, but the real
indication came when we witnessed a ‘3-points Negative divergence’ in
the RSI-Smoothened oscillator on daily chart in all key indices (NIFTY,
BANKNIFTY and NIFTY MIDCAP 50) after clocking their fresh record
highs. Adding to this, BANKNIFTY confirmed a ‘Double Toppattern on
previous Friday after breaking its crucial swing low. Now, we are
considerably off record highs and the way charts are shaped up, it does
not bode well for the short term bulls.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 13200 Resistance 1 – 13800
Support 2 – 13000 Resistance2 – 14000
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Now, looking at the weekly time frame close below ‘5
-
EMA’ along with
‘Shooting Star’ pattern on Monthly chart, the Nifty is possibly headed
towards strong support zone of Weekly 20-EMA’ and daily ’89-EMA’
zone of 13200 – 13000. However, since the Finance Minister is going to
present the ‘Union Budget’ today, the immediate direction would be
decided on the actual outcome of the event. But looking at the price
structure, we do not expect Nifty to surpass 14000 14200 before
completing its corrective phase. So if market reacts positively post the
event, 13800 14000 14200 becomes a cluster of resistances and a
move towards this should ideally be used to lighten up longs. On the
other hand, sooner or later, the Nifty is likely to extend correction
towards mentioned levels of 13200 13000. Although we have been
cautious of late, we believe that a fall towards these supports should
be used to accumulate quality propositions in a staggered manner with
a broader perspective.
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 01, 2021
Nifty Vs OI
13200
13400
13600
13800
14000
14200
14400
14600
14800
,0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
1/4 1/6 1/8 1/12 1/14 1/18 1/20 1/22 1/27 1/29
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
Last series, we witnessed follow-up selling to correct
more than 5% to previous weeks closing
.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash segment to the tune of
Rs. 5930 crore. In index future segment, they sold
marginally with good amount fall in open interest,
indicating unwinding of both long and short trades.
We witnessed decent profit booking along with shorts
in index futures and banking index continued adding
shorts. Rollovers in Nifty stood at 77%, which is in line
with the three month averages. But, the open interest
plunged 20% series on series which indicates we are
beginning February series with a lower base. Now, the
BankNifty rollover may appear to be low if compared to
the averages but if open interest is considered, it
suggests that decent amount of shorts have been
rolled-over to next series. As far as FIIs activity is
concerned, they preferred rolling over their shorts
formed during last series. On Friday, we saw decent
writing in 13800-14000 call options. On the other side,
13500 holds highest open interest concentration.
Considering the upcoming event of Union Budget, it is
advisable to stay light and pick quality stock in case of
any sharp fall post the event
.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 3.18%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 1.86%
as market closed at 13634.60 levels.
The Nifty February future closed with a premium of
74.50 point against a premium of 26.80 point in last
trading session. The March series closed at a premium of
109.40 point.
The INDIA VIX increased from 24.29 to 25.34.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty decreased from
1.34 to 0.98.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are COLPAL, DABUR, DLF, TECHM and CIPLA.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
SAIL 97147000 122.89 57.65 0.61
SRTRANSFIN 5008000 49.58 1291.35 16.05
TVSMOTOR 6123600 31.47 560.70 6.17
PAGEIND 62340 19.08 27176.35 -5.76
GODREJCP 3037000 17.80 744.65 -4.02
COLPAL 3175200 15.68 1603.30 2.88
AMBUJACEM 21108000 11.45 243.35 -1.75
ICICIPRULI 4908000 10.95 481.00 -1.72
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
LALPATHLAB 157000 -18.34 2247.50 -0.50
COFORGE 534000 -15.94 2392.90 -1.14
CUMMINSIND 1740000 -12.91 666.35 3.87
SRF 327625 -8.07 5370.00 -0.17
BANKBARODA 69732000 -7.73 68.05 1.94
BOSCHLTD 72850 -7.20 15328.35 -2.37
IOC 50667500 -6.39 93.25 1.24
MRF 49960 -5.54 84084.75 -3.88
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 0.98 0.95
BANKNIFTY 0.87 0.83
RELIANCE 0.47 0.51
ICICIBANK 0.57 0.47
INFY 0.47 0.70
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
HAVELLS 46.29
SRTRANSFIN 76.63
DRREDDY 36.50
PAGEIND 45.37
TVSMOTOR 46.06
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 01, 2021
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (February Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
13634.60
FII Statistics for January 29, 2020
Detail Buy
Net Contracts
Open Interest
Sell
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
INDEX
FUTURES
6472.67 6477.73 (5.06) 117312 11106.17 (5.62)
INDEX
OPTIONS
247516.59 245045.78 2470.81
713263 68931.16 44.02
STOCK
FUTURES
17412.20 17595.13 (182.93) 1142457 89349.04 0.79
STOCK
OPTIONS
10354.73 10550.17 (195.44) 89606 6888.47 73.77
Total 281756.19
279668.81
2087.38
2062638
176274.84
14.30
Turnover on January 29, 2020
Instrume
nt
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 5,36,291 47718.06 -28.02
Index Options 1,72,15,513
15,46,598.75 -79.08
Stock Futures 10,12,738 83750.48 -42.18
Stock Options 13,62,004 1,15,659.01 -3.66
Total 2,01,26,546
17,93,726.30 -76.77
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 13600 422.40
52.45 47.55 13652.45
Sell 13700 369.95
Buy 13600 422.40
98.70 101.30 13698.70
Sell 13800 323.70
Buy 13700 369.95
46.25 53.75 13746.25
Sell 13800 323.70
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 13600 317.35
42.20 57.80 13557.80
Sell 13500 275.15
Buy 13600 317.35
78.10 121.90 13521.90
Sell 13400 239.25
Buy 13500 275.15
35.90 64.10 13464.10
Sell 13400 239.25
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
13400
13500
13600
13700
13800
13900
14000
14100
14200
14300
14400
14500
14600
14700
Call Put
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 01, 2021
Da
ily
Pivot Level
s for
Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
491
500
517
526
543
ASIANPAINT 2,346 2,377
2,430
2,461
2,514
AXISBANK
641
652
664
675
687
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,852 3,929
4,067
4,144
4,282
BAJFINANCE 4,554 4,644
4,797
4,887
5,040
BAJAJFINSV 8,402 8,562
8,836
8,996
9,270
BPCL
372
378
387
393
402
BHARTIARTL
533
543
561
571
589
BRITANNIA 3,393 3,447
3,534
3,588
3,675
CIPLA
802
814
833
844
863
COALINDIA
123
124
127
129
131
DIVISLAB 3,298 3,334
3,396
3,432
3,494
DRREDDY 4,324 4,463
4,689
4,828
5,054
EICHERMOT 2,637 2,691
2,781
2,834
2,924
GAIL
121
123
126
129
132
GRASIM 1,020 1,038
1,066
1,084
1,112
HCLTECH
884
899
924
939
964
HDFCBANK 1,344 1,367
1,388
1,411
1,432
HDFCLIFE
660
669
677
686
694
HDFC 2,305 2,342
2,401
2,437
2,496
HEROMOTOCO 3,064 3,160
3,322
3,419
3,581
HINDALCO
219
223
229
232
238
HINDUNILVR 2,208 2,236
2,279
2,307
2,350
ICICIBANK
522
529
537
545
553
IOC
91
92
94
95
98
INDUSINDBK
796
821
841
866
886
INFY 1,194 1,216
1,254
1,276
1,314
ITC
198
201
205
207
211
JSW STEEL
352
359
371
379
390
KOTAKBANK 1,676 1,695
1,722
1,741
1,768
LT 1,299 1,317
1,343
1,361
1,387
M&M
711
730
765
784
819
MARUTI 6,839 7,023
7,354
7,538
7,869
NESTLEIND 16,657
16,858
17,163
17,365
17,670
NTPC
85
87
90
92
94
ONGC
84
86
90
92
95
POWERGRID
179
182
185
188
191
RELIANCE 1,779 1,810
1,862
1,893
1,945
SBILIFE
844
854
869
879
894
SHREECEM 22,103
22,438
22,866
23,202
23,630
SBIN
272
277
284
289
296
SUNPHARMA
534
560
580
606
626
TCS 3,026 3,069
3,143
3,185
3,260
TATAMOTORS
249
256
267
274
286
TATASTEEL
572
587
610
625
648
TECHM
931
946
971
986
1,011
TITAN 1,381 1,401
1,435
1,455
1,489
ULTRACEMCO 5,153 5,240
5,375
5,462
5,597
UPL
546
553
565
572
584
WIPRO
402
410
424
432
446
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 01, 2021
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]roking.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]roking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com