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Technic
al & Derivatives Report
February 01, 2020
Sensex (
40723
(1
1962
)
Last year, few announcements from the budget disappointed
market participants to a great extent. This led to complete
nosedive as an initial reaction which was then followed by a
sustained decline of more than 10% percent in merely two
months. Fortunately, the one who spoiled the party eventually had
to become a savior. Our Finance Minister gave a masterstroke by
slashing corporate tax rates to bolster the economy. In fact there
was a flurry of reforms seen thereafter to support lot of key
sectors. All this had to turn into positivity and as a result, we saw
a v-shaped recovery in the market post mid-September to clock
record highs around the 12400 mark. Now, again we are
headed to this mega event, Union Budget, which is going to be
announced today.
Before this, let’s dig into a bit of technical and try to assess how
charts are shaped up. Undoubtedly the higher degree direction
remains up but recently we witnessed index slipping into a
consolidation mode and it is evident too, after seeing such a
sharp run up over the past 3-4 months. Going ahead, 11900-
11700 would remain to be a sacrosanct support zone for the
index. As long as we are managing to defend these levels, there
is no reason to worry for.
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Nifty Bank Outlook
-
(
30834
)
In the last one month, the banking space has witnessed some
profit booking from the all time high levels and has retraced back
towards the '89 DEMA' support. The broader trend for the index
still continues to be positive and hence, we interpret this down
move as a correction within an uptrend. Infact, this has relieved
the overbought set ups on the momentum readings and hence,
this retracement seem to be a good opportunity to re-enter the
banking space. The index has retraced 38.2% of the previous
upmove from 27568 to 32613 (Jan. 2020 high). This
retracement support in the range of 30600-30800 also coincides
with the '89DEMA' support. Below this, the major support for the
index is placed around the '200 SMA'at 30000-30100. Hence,
the downside risk seems to be limited hereon and we advise
traders to take this as a buying opportunity for stocks within the
sector which would resume the momentum in the next leg of up
move. On the higher side, the immediate resistance for the index
is seen around 32000 mark which when surpassed, should lead
to a continuation of the uptrend to again register new highs.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 30600 Resistance 1 – 31085
Support 2 – 30100 Resistance 2 – 31475
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
One should continue with
a ‘Buy on Decline’ strategy in the
market. However, in case of an unfavorable outcome from the
event, if Nifty slides below the mentioned support zone, this will
apply brakes on the ongoing optimism. On the higher side,
next important level to watch out for would be 12500 first and
then a move towards 12800 also cannot be ruled out. We hope
to see some positive outcome from this event, which will
compensate for the previous budget’s negativity.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 11900 Resistance 1 – 12400
Support 2 – 11700 Resistance 2 – 12500
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 01, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
Views
We began yesterday’s session on a positive note but
the follow-up buying was missing. We witnessed fresh
selling to drag index below 12000 mark on the closing
basis.
FIIs continued their selling streak in the cash market
segment, they sold to the tune of Rs. 4179 crores. In
index futures, they sold of worth Rs. 2282 crores with
significant rise in open interest, indicating fresh selling
in yesterday’s session.
Yesterday, we saw the addition of fresh short position
in Nifty; whereas, banking index showed some
recovering due to short covering. In options front, the
overall build-up remained scattered between 12000-
12500 call and 11300-12000 put options. At present,
Nifty is hovering near the important psychological mark
of 12000 and we also have the Union Budget
announcement today; hence traders are advised to stay
light as market may remain volatile.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 12.11%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased 12.36%
as market closed at 11962.10 levels.
The Nifty February future closed with a premium of
32.20 points against a premium of 24.10 points in last
trading session. The March series closed at a premium of
74.20 points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 16.79 to 17.36.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased
from 1.25 to 1.04.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are IDEA, APOLLOHOSP, SBIN, BANKBARODA
and MCDOWELL-N.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
OIL 13262898 85.81 129.55 -6.88
BEL 51138000 76.86 90.65 -12.16
COALINDIA 53959500 65.74 181.70 -4.68
NTPC 133142400 64.55 112.85 -3.12
POWERGRID 65636000 46.71 186.85 -7.23
ONGC 88162300 42.97 108.95 -8.22
NMDC 37956000 32.45 116.95 -4.86
CENTURYTEX 3426000 13.52 644.20 5.67
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
ESCORTS 4660700 -10.74 803.65 -1.67
EQUITAS 21413000 -10.29 109.10 -3.75
MOTHERSUMI 21900000 -6.97 133.70 -3.64
RAMCOCEM 1824800 -5.74 781.35 -1.20
MFSL 8625500 -5.67 506.40 1.40
TORNTPHARM 412500 -5.39 1931.10 -0.35
HEROMOTOCO 2018600 -4.58 2501.85 -1.06
L&TFH 31488800 -4.40 117.15 -0.04
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.04 0.73
BANKNIFTY 0.89 0.85
RELIANCE 0.56 0.60
ICICIBANK 0.46 0.49
INFY 0.62 0.68
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
BEL 70.64
POWERGRID 49.52
ONGC 51.76
MARICO 44.86
NMDC 58.51
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 01, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (February Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot
=
11962.10
Lot Size = 75
FII
Statistics for
January
31, 2020
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
5351.99 7634.78 (2282.79) 146495 12171.61 26.25
INDEX
OPTIONS
138399.04 136901.57 1497.47
563752 46174.65 15.25
STOCK
FUTURES
20814.87 22074.33 (1259.46) 1468181 95128.91 5.94
STOCK
OPTIONS
5782.25 5731.28 50.97
37818 2486.44 146.63
Total 170348.15
172341.96
(1993.81) 2216246
155961.61
10.46
Turnover on
January
31
, 20
20
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
405243 30575.77 -22.48
INDEX
OPTIONS
7435814 558679.50 -80.68
STOCK
FUTURES
916785 61859.14 -49.57
STOCK
OPTIONS
666383 50067.02 -24.94
TOTAL 94,24,225 701181.43 -77.53
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 12000 213.50
48.30 51.70 12048.30
Sell 12100 165.20
Buy 12000 213.50
89.00 111.00 12089.00
Sell 12200 124.50
Buy 12100 165.20
40.70 59.30 12140.70
Sell 12200 124.50
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 12000 219.45
43.50 56.50 11956.50
Sell 11900 175.95
Buy 12000 219.45
79.15 120.85 11920.85
Sell 11800 140.30
Buy 11900 175.95
35.65 64.35 11864.35
Sell 11800 140.30
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 01, 2020
Da
ily
Pivot
Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIPORTS 360 365
373 378 386
ASIANPAINT 1,767 1,782
1,803 1,817 1,838
AXISBANK 719 724
731 736 743
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,100 3,140
3,190 3,230 3,280
BAJFINANCE 4,287 4,326
4,373 4,413 4,460
BAJAJFINSV 9,222 9,332
9,520 9,630 9,818
BPCL 445 451
462 468 478
BHARTIARTL 482 489
494 502 507
INFRATEL 239 243
249 254 259
BRITANNIA 3,133 3,167
3,221 3,255 3,308
CIPLA 436 441
448 453 460
COALINDIA 174 178
184 187 193
DRREDDY 3,046 3,080
3,136 3,170 3,226
EICHERMOT 19,950 20,120
20,381 20,550 20,811
GAIL 116 118
121 123 126
GRASIM 762 770
784 793 807
HCLTECH 577 584
597 604 616
HDFCBANK 1,211 1,218
1,228 1,236 1,246
HDFC 2,388 2,401
2,418 2,431 2,448
HEROMOTOCO 2,475 2,489
2,505 2,518 2,535
HINDALCO 184 187
191 194 198
HINDUNILVR 1,993 2,013
2,041 2,062 2,089
ICICIBANK 517 521
527 531 537
IOC 109 111
115 117 121
INDUSINDBK 1,228 1,243
1,258 1,273 1,287
INFY 764 770
778 783 791
ITC 232 233
236 238 240
JSW STEEL 243 247
253 257 263
KOTAKBANK 1,655 1,674
1,701 1,719 1,747
LT 1,352 1,361
1,369 1,377 1,385
M&M 558 563
570 574 582
MARUTI 6,789 6,851
6,958 7,020 7,126
NESTLEIND 15,109 15,234
15,436 15,561 15,763
NTPC 109 111
113 115 117
ONGC 101 105
111 114 120
POWERGRID 179 183
189 193 200
RELIANCE 1,378 1,395
1,424 1,441 1,470
SBIN 303 311
316 324 329
SUNPHARMA 425 430
437 442 450
TCS 2,026 2,052
2,098 2,125 2,171
TATAMOTORS 168 172
180 185 193
TATASTEEL 425 432
443 450 461
TECHM 775 786
794 805 814
TITAN 1,173 1,180
1,188 1,195 1,202
ULTRACEMCO 4,341 4,378
4,443 4,481 4,545
UPL 510 518
534 542 558
VEDANTA 135 136
139 141 143
WIPRO 233 235
237 239 241
YESBANK 38 39
39 40 41
ZEEL 264 267
270 272 275
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 01, 2020
*
Research Team Tel: 022
-
39357800
Website:
www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch[email protected]gelbroking.com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.des[email protected]broking.com
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