Technical & Derivatives Report
August 29, 2016
Sensex (27782) / Nifty (8573)
Exhibit 1: Nifty Hourly Chart
The Nifty has been unable to make a decisive move on either side
and has been gyrating within a thin trading range of nearly 150
points in the past four weeks. The Nifty is now stuck in a range of
8500 - 8728. In continuation of our previous report, a ‘Tri-star’
pattern that was visible on the weekly chart, is still intact. A
pronounced confirmation of this pattern (below 8500) could inflict
some weakness in the market. However, we believe the downside
would be limited as we do not expect the Nifty to extend the fall
beyond 8400 - 8364. In a bullish scenario, 8728 stands to be a
strong resistance and a sustainable move beyond the level would
extend the up move towards 8780 - 8830 where we see major
hurdles standing in the near term. If we meticulously observe the
hourly chart, a ‘Bullish Wolfe Wave’ is clearly visible (see exhibit).
For it to materialize, we need to wait for a 5th confirmation point
either around 8550 (127% retracement from point 3 to 4) or at
8520 (161% retracement from point 3 to 4). This pattern remains
valid as long as the Nifty manages to hold 8500 and activation of
the same may result in a move towards 8680 - 8710 (target of
the pattern connecting point 1 and 4). Going forward, since there
are no clear signs on the chart, traders are advised to keep a
check of these scenarios and all key levels.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 8520
Resistance 1 - 8600
Support 2 - 8500
Resistance 2 - 8630
Nifty Bank Outlook - (19196)
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
On Friday, the Nifty Bank index opened with marginal gains and
started correcting from initial trades. The banking index continued
to make lower lows in first half of the session. However, we
witnessed a sideways consolidation in the later half. Eventually,
the Nifty Bank index ended the session with loss of 0.56 percent.
As mentioned in our previous reports, the Nifty Bank index has
failed to cross its crucial resistance of ‘SuperTrend’ on monthly
chart, which is placed at 19485. Currently, the banking index is
correcting from last few sessions and that may continue to correct
towards its strong support of ’20 EMA’ (19050) on daily chart,
which coincides with the ‘Breakout Trendline’ (see exhibit). At
current juncture, we advise traders to remain light on positions
and focus on stock specific trades with proper risk management.
Intraday support for the index are placed around 19050 and
18965; whereas, resistances are seen around 19285 and 19360.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 19050
Resistance 1 - 19285
Support 2 - 18965
Resistance 2 - 19360
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1
Technical & Derivatives Report
August 29, 2016
Comments
Nifty Vs OI
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 3.66%
BankNifty futures open interest has increased by 3.96%
as market closed at 8572.55 levels.
The Nifty September future closed with a premium of
52.45 points against a premium of 52.75 points in
previous session. The October series closed at a
premium of 92.35 points.
The Implied Volatility of at the money options has
increased from 12.03% to 12.37%.
The total OI of the market is Rs. 2,24,727/- cr. and the
stock futures OI is Rs. 75,101/- cr.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are JINDALSTEL, ADANIPOWER, JPASSOCIAT,
MRF and NMDC.
Views
FIIs were net buyers in both equity cash and index futures
segment on Friday. They bought equities worth Rs. 341
OI Gainers
crores. While, they were net buyers to the tune of
OI
PRICE
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
Rs. 1051 crores with rise in OI, indicating formation of
WIPRO
8497000
19.78
493.85
-2.80
fresh longs in last trading session.
VOLTAS
3926000
17.76
392.30
2.79
On Index Options front, FIIs were net buyers of Rs. 811
crores with significant rise in OI. In call options, 8600 -
BIOCON
3841200
13.30
898.90
2.96
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8900 strikes were active and added good amount of
LICHSGFIN
7932100
12.46
581.00
3.43
fresh positions. While in put options, 8400 and 8500
BEML
836500
12.21
1060.90
1.77
strikes added huge positions, followed by some OI
addition in 8600 strike. Highest OI in September series is
OI Losers
visible in 9000 call and 8500 put options.
OI
PRICE
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
FIIs has squared off most of their index shorts on expiry
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
day and added fresh longs on Friday, which is a positive
CADILAHC
2905600
-4.92
383.55
-0.89
sign for the market. Currently, 8500-8550 will remain a
AMARAJABAT
532800
-4.21
908.70
2.20
crucial support for index. Since, derivative data and FIIs
GAIL
10710000
-2.91
377.40
1.10
activity are showing strength in the market; traders are
PFC
23748000
-2.78
116.65
-2.51
advised to trade with positive bias and focus more on
ICIL
510600
-2.74
862.35
-0.27
stock specific moves.
Historical Volatility
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP
HV
SCRIP
PCR-OI
PCR-VOL
CENTURYTEX
42.46
NIFTY
1.04
1.19
IDBI
48.72
BANKNIFTY
0.95
1.00
RCOM
44.71
SBIN
0.65
0.59
TATACOMM
42.37
TATAMOTORS
1.01
0.74
IGL
38.54
INFY
0.53
0.55
Strategy Date
Symbol
Strategy
Status
01-08-2016
RELIANCE
Ratio Bear Put Spread
Loss on Expiry
08-08-2016
SBIN
Bull Call Spread
Profit on Expiry
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Technical & Derivatives Report
August 29, 2016
FII Statistics for 26-August 2016
Turnover on 26-August 2016
Open Interest
No. of
Turnover
Change
Detail
Buy
Sell
Net
Instrument
Value
Contracts
( in Cr. )
(%)
Contracts
Change (%)
(in Cr.)
INDEX
INDEX
2246.46
1195.35
1051.11
352675
23197.59
2.55
219787
15283.57
-53.77
FUTURES
FUTURES
INDEX
INDEX
31692.76
30881.42
811.34
840725
54571.87
11.91
2217923
154345.93
-73.12
OPTIONS
OPTIONS
STOCK
5335.14
5487.88
(152.75)
813755
53214.68
1.72
STOCK
FUTURES
518870
36354.13
-64.79
FUTURES
STOCK
STOCK
3538.87
3344.90
193.97
32421
2180.27
1040.78
OPTIONS
249052
17610.68
-46.68
OPTIONS
TOTAL
42813.22
40909.55
1903.67
2039576
133164.41
7.46
TOTAL
3205632
223594.31
-69.93
Nifty Spot = 8572.55
Lot Size = 75
Bull-Call Spreads
Bear-Put Spreads
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Buy
8700
88.10
Buy
8600
117.60
37.80
62.20
8737.80
34.45
65.55
8565.55
Sell
8800
50.30
Sell
8500
83.15
Buy
8700
88.10
Buy
8600
117.60
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62.20
137.80
8762.20
59.95
140.05
8540.05
Sell
8900
25.90
Sell
8400
57.65
Buy
8800
50.30
Buy
8500
83.15
24.40
75.60
8824.40
25.50
74.50
8474.50
Sell
8900
25.90
Sell
8400
57.65
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (September Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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Technical & Derivatives Report
August 29, 2016
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ACC
1,601
1,620
1,641
1,660
1,682
ADANIPORTS
251
254
259
262
267
AMBUJACEM
259
263
266
269
272
ASIANPAINT
1,077
1,100
1,114
1,137
1,150
AUROPHARMA
777
784
790
797
804
AXISBANK
577
581
585
590
594
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,828
2,843
2,860
2,875
2,893
BANKBARODA
154
156
160
162
165
BHEL
136
138
140
142
144
BPCL
588
592
597
601
606
BHARTIARTL
338
341
345
348
351
INFRATEL
338
342
346
350
354
BOSCH
23,451
23,573
23,713
23,836
23,976
CIPLA
558
563
567
572
576
COALINDIA
328
330
332
335
337
DRREDDY
2,999
3,020
3,045
3,066
3,092
EICHERMOT
22,010
22,171
22,260
22,421
22,510
GAIL
366
372
379
385
391
GRASIM
4,474
4,504
4,538
4,567
4,601
HCLTECH
756
768
784
795
812
HDFCBANK
1,250
1,253
1,258
1,261
1,266
HDFC
1,340
1,353
1,362
1,375
1,384
HEROMOTOCO
3,276
3,291
3,312
3,326
3,347
HINDALCO
153
154
156
157
158
HINDUNILVR
892
898
906
913
921
ICICIBANK
240
243
246
248
251
IDEA
92
93
94
95
97
INDUSINDBK
1,144
1,154
1,169
1,179
1,195
INFY
999
1,010
1,028
1,038
1,057
ITC
251
252
254
255
256
KOTAKBANK
765
773
781
789
797
LT
1,396
1,412
1,436
1,451
1,475
LUPIN
1,491
1,501
1,521
1,531
1,551
M&M
1,407
1,416
1,424
1,433
1,441
MARUTI
4,877
4,899
4,932
4,954
4,987
NTPC
156
157
158
159
161
ONGC
235
237
238
240
241
POWERGRID
178
180
181
183
185
RELIANCE
1,008
1,018
1,024
1,034
1,041
SBIN
243
245
248
250
253
SUNPHARMA
743
749
759
765
775
TCS
2,483
2,504
2,538
2,559
2,594
TATAMTRDVR
303
316
327
340
351
TATAMOTORS
472
488
502
517
531
TATAPOWER
74
75
76
76
77
TATASTEEL
362
366
371
375
380
TECHM
454
457
460
463
467
ULTRACEMCO
3,724
3,764
3,807
3,846
3,890
WIPRO
477
483
495
501
513
YESBANK
1,303
1,315
1,331
1,343
1,359
ZEEL
497
501
509
513
520
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Technical & Derivatives Report
August 29, 2016
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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