Technical & Derivatives Report
July 18, 2016
Sensex (27837) / Nifty (8541)
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
The market participants seem to be living up to the famous quote
“Trend is your friend” as the ceiling of the market drifts higher
and higher with successive resistance levels getting thrashed. On
the weekly charts, the Nifty has formed another bullish candle
and with no signs of any reversal. The 'RSI Smoothened' indicator
on the daily charts is trading around the 85 mark and is thus in
an overbought zone. However, on hindsight, momentum readings
can remain in an overbought zone for protracted periods when
the market is in a strong uptrend. Hence, we suggest traders to
trade with a positive bias in direction of the uptrend until and
unless we see signs of a reversal. If we look at the lower time
frame chart, the immediate support for the Nifty stands at 8500.
Thus, only a sustainable move below this level would result in a
loss of momentum, but the directional view would still remain
positive. We reiterate that the Nifty is in a drive to test the next
resistance level of 8654.75 (July
2015 high). At this level,
momentum traders could lighten up their long positions. The
present formations suggest a strong support for the Nifty in the
range of 8400 - 8350. In the eventuality of the supports getting
tested, positional traders should again look to initiate long
positions as we anticipate that it wouldn’t take long for the Nifty to
break the hurdle of 8654.75.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 8500
Resistance 1 - 8600
Support 2 - 8470
Resistance 2 - 8655
Nifty Bank Outlook - (18954)
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
On Friday's trading session, the Nifty Bank index outperformed
the Nifty index and ended the session with gains of 0.48 percent
over its previous day's close. During the entire week, the index
gained 5.20 percent, thus continuing the positive momentum.
The index has formed another bullish candle on weekly charts as
the individual heavyweights within the sector performed
remarkably well during the last week. The Nifty Bank index is now
fast approaching its next resistance level which is seen around
19229 (July 2015 high). With momentum readings in overbought
zone, there is a probability of some profit booking around the
mentioned resistance level. However, the broader trend remains
resolutely up as far as the ‘Higher Top Higher Bottom’ structure is
maintained. Momentum traders can thus lighten up their long
positions around 19229 levels and wait for dips to re-enter long
positions. The intraday support for the index is placed in range of
18776 - 18736; whereas, resistances are seen around 19130
and 19229.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 18776
Resistance 1 - 19130
Support 2 - 18736
Resistance 2 - 19229
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1
Technical & Derivatives Report
July 18, 2016
Comments
Nifty Vs OI
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 3.04%
BankNifty futures open interest has increased by 2.61%
as market closed at 8541.40 levels.
The Nifty July future closed with a premium of 13.45
points against a premium of 11.55 points in previous
session. The August series closed at a premium of 49.85
points.
The Implied Volatility of at the money options has
decreased from 14.32% to 13.61%.
The total OI of the market is Rs. 2,60,933/- cr. and the
stock futures OI is Rs. 70,922/- cr.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are GMRINFRA, SOUTHBANK, UNITECH,
MOTHERSUMI and TV18BRDCST.
Views
OI Gainers
FIIs were net buyer in both equity cash and Index Futures
OI
PRICE
segment on Friday. They bought equities to the tune of
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
Rs. 1461 crores. While, they bought Index Futures worth
INFY
16725500
50.07
1076.85
-8.76
Rs. 723 crores with rise in open interest, indicating
NIITTECH
1040000
32.48
462.35
-5.28
formation of long positions in last trading session.
TCS
4273750
15.81
2442.70
-2.62
In Index Options segment, FIIs were net seller worth
Rs. 561 crores with rise in open interest. In call options,
ORIENTBANK
16026000
15.18
122.55
-2.54
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8600 strike was active and added some fresh positions.
BIOCON
4558400
12.55
706.75
-1.04
On the other hand, we didn’t witness any significant
build-up in put options. However, 8300 and 8000 put
OI Losers
strikes have seen some amount of unwinding. Highest OI
OI
PRICE
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
in current series is placed at 8700 call and 8400 put
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
options.
CONCOR
623000
-9.45
1464.00
0.78
From start of July series, FIIs have been buying
BANKINDIA
25872000
-8.97
114.05
-2.52
meaningfully in Index Futures and we haven’t seen any
OFSS
82350
-8.50
3525.55
-0.20
signs of profit booking yet. We expect this momentum to
CANBK
15087000
-8.31
252.50
-0.71
continue, traders are suggested to trade with a positive
BPCL
20120400
-7.11
556.80
0.35
bias.
Historical Volatility
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP
HV
SCRIP
PCR-OI
PCR-VOL
WIPRO
22.23
NIFTY
1.06
0.97
JSWSTEEL
30.03
BANKNIFTY
1.45
0.97
HEXAWARE
35.79
INFY
0.48
0.61
LICHSGFIN
32.66
RELIANCE
0.55
0.54
HDFC
27.88
TCS
0.47
0.60
Strategy Date
Symbol
Strategy
Status
04-07-2016
RCOM
Ratio Bull Call Spread
Active
11-07-2016
BANKNIFTY
Bull Call Spread
Didn’t trigger
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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 18, 2016
FII Statistics for 15-July 2016
Turnover on 15-July 2016
Open Interest
No. of
Turnover
Change
Detail
Buy
Sell
Net
Instrument
Value
Contracts
( in Cr. )
(%)
Contracts
Change (%)
(in Cr.)
INDEX
INDEX
2050.28
1327.46
722.81
308194
20173.47
4.82
236390
16021.99
19.63
FUTURES
FUTURES
INDEX
INDEX
30667.16
31228.05
(560.89)
955469
61791.62
2.65
3037104
203915.20
-32.42
OPTIONS
OPTIONS
STOCK
5933.27
6706.84
(773.58)
835890
53549.36
1.76
STOCK
FUTURES
661729
42939.55
21.58
FUTURES
STOCK
STOCK
7446.78
7602.39
(155.61)
99258
6481.78
10.79
OPTIONS
650531
41503.57
54.07
OPTIONS
TOTAL
46097.48
46864.75
(767.27)
2198811
141996.23
2.95
TOTAL
4585754
304380.30
-19.34
Nifty Spot = 8541.40
Lot Size = 75
Bull-Call Spreads
Bear-Put Spreads
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Buy
8600
66.70
Buy
8500
67.10
34.15
65.85
8634.15
29.20
70.80
8470.80
Sell
8700
32.55
Sell
8400
37.90
Buy
8600
66.70
Buy
8500
67.10
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52.80
147.20
8652.80
46.00
154.00
8454.00
Sell
8800
13.90
Sell
8300
21.10
Buy
8700
32.55
Buy
8400
37.90
18.65
81.35
8718.65
16.80
83.20
8383.20
Sell
8800
13.90
Sell
8300
21.10
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (July Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 18, 2016
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ACC
1,586
1,599
1,622
1,635
1,658
ADANIPORTS
215
218
221
223
226
AMBUJACEM
257
259
262
264
267
ASIANPAINT
1,012
1,019
1,025
1,032
1,039
AUROPHARMA
743
752
766
775
788
AXISBANK
549
557
564
572
578
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,655
2,675
2,688
2,708
2,720
BANKBARODA
160
162
165
168
171
BHEL
140
141
143
145
147
BPCL
542
549
553
559
564
BHARTIARTL
360
370
375
384
389
INFRATEL
345
349
354
358
362
BOSCH
23,209
23,558
23,759
24,108
24,309
CIPLA
506
511
515
520
524
COALINDIA
312
316
320
324
328
DRREDDY
3,519
3,543
3,568
3,593
3,618
EICHERMOT
19,384
19,582
19,724
19,922
20,064
GAIL
386
390
394
398
401
GRASIM
4,704
4,763
4,804
4,863
4,905
HCLTECH
693
705
723
735
752
HDFCBANK
1,184
1,204
1,215
1,235
1,246
HDFC
1,301
1,333
1,351
1,383
1,401
HEROMOTOCO
3,192
3,218
3,256
3,282
3,320
HINDALCO
135
136
137
138
139
HINDUNILVR
922
932
942
951
961
ICICIBANK
260
263
266
269
273
IDEA
107
109
110
113
114
INDUSINDBK
1,103
1,115
1,125
1,137
1,148
INFY
967
1,020
1,105
1,158
1,243
ITC
245
247
250
252
255
KOTAKBANK
760
766
774
780
787
LT
1,541
1,564
1,579
1,602
1,617
LUPIN
1,632
1,651
1,670
1,689
1,707
M&M
1,430
1,448
1,466
1,484
1,502
MARUTI
4,368
4,420
4,457
4,509
4,546
NTPC
138
147
152
161
166
ONGC
227
228
230
232
234
POWERGRID
161
163
165
166
168
RELIANCE
995
1,003
1,012
1,021
1,030
SBIN
229
230
232
234
236
SUNPHARMA
759
765
770
775
780
TCS
2,365
2,405
2,467
2,507
2,568
TATAMTRDVR
296
304
311
319
326
TATAMOTORS
470
482
492
504
514
TATAPOWER
70
71
72
72
73
TATASTEEL
350
362
368
379
386
TECHM
488
496
510
518
532
ULTRACEMCO
3,480
3,506
3,533
3,558
3,585
WIPRO
539
547
561
569
583
YESBANK
1,150
1,164
1,175
1,190
1,201
ZEEL
459
466
470
476
480
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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 18, 2016
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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