Technical & Derivatives Report
April 18, 2016
Sensex (25627) / Nifty (7850)
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
The Nifty posted reasonably strong weekly gains, despite it being
a truncated week; mainly drawing impetus from IMD’s forecast of
an above-normal monsoon this year.
The up move has come sooner than we had expected as we had
estimated the Nifty to first test the 7480 mark and then assume
bullishness. The surge we witnessed was on the back of a lot of
positive news flow on the domestic as well as the global front
which led the Nifty to reverse after posting a low of 7516.85.
Although this move started a bit early, we should give due respect
to this price development. Thus, traders are advised not to stay in
the opposite direction until we see any reversal signs. Technically
speaking, traders should now keep a watch on the important
technical evidence, ie the ‘200 SMA’ placed at 7875. Thus, we
advise traders to keep booking profits in the zone of 7875 - 7925
and then wait for further developments on the charts to confirm
the near term direction. On the flipside, 7778 - 7660 would now
be seen as immediate support levels.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 7778
Resistance 1 - 7875
Support 2 - 7730
Resistance 2 - 7925
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Nifty Bank Outlook - (16279)
The truncated week gone by saw resumption of the upmove and
the index closed with gains of 4.56% over its previous weeks
close.
On Wednesday's session, the index had given a gap up opening
followed up with positive momentum throughout the session. The
'Bearish Engulfing' pattern formed during the previous week on
weekly charts has been negated as the index has managed to
cross the high on Wednesday, thus indicating bulls taking control
back in their favor. If the index manages to continue its
momentum, then it could rally upto 16500-16550 range which is
127% reciprocal retracement of the previous corrective move from
16283 to 15440. Traders are hence advised to continue to trade
in the direction of the trend and follow strict risk management
strategy on their trading positions. Intraday support for Nifty Bank
is placed around 16140 and 15975 whereas resistance are seen
around 16390 and 16510.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 16140
Resistance 1 - 16390
Support 2 - 15975
Resistance 2 - 16510
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Technical & Derivatives Report
April 18, 2016
Comments
Nifty Vs OI
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 10.08%
BankNifty futures open interest has increased by 5.60%
as market closed at 7850.45 levels.
The Nifty April future closed at a premium of 17.40
points against a premium of 23.85 points. The May
series closed at a premium of 52.10 points.
The Implied Volatility of at the money options has
decreased from 13.18% to 13.10%.
The total OI of the market is Rs. 2,13,851/- cr. and the
stock futures OI is Rs. 56,977/- cr.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are JPASSOCIAT, UNITECH, SOUTHBANK IFCI
and ORIENTBANK.
Views
FIIs were net buyers in both cash market segment and
OI Gainers
Index Futures. They bought equities to the tune of Rs. 644
OI
PRICE
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
crores. While in Index futures, they bought significantly of
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
Rs.
1679 crores with good amount of rise in OI,
INDUSINDBK
4887000
25.04
990.85
2.22
suggesting fresh long formation in last session.
PCJEWELLER
1398800
16.58
353.35
-1.94
In Index Options front, again they bought considerably of
INFY
12813000
13.17
1176.15
-0.66
worth Rs. 6304 crores with decent rise in OI. In call
EXIDEIND
7741800
13.00
134.70
-0.96
wded fresh build-ng.com
options, out of the money strike 8100 ad
HEROMOTOCO
1444800
9.65
3147.90
3.27
up, followed by unwinding in 7700-8000 call options.
We believe unwinding in call options was mainly by
OI Losers
writers of these strikes. On the other hand, 7800 puts
OI
PRICE
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
added huge OI; some buildup was also visible in 7700
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
and 7900 strikes. Maximum open interest in call options
AJANTPHARM
420800
-9.93
1483.30
-0.02
is intact in 8000 call and of put options is now visible in
MCLEODRUSS
2736800
-9.26
198.40
0.53
7000 strike. Earlier move in Nifty wasn’t supported by
DABUR
3732000
-7.90
267.45
1.63
long but surprisingly we saw huge long formation in last
VOLTAS
4008000
-7.22
284.30
1.90
trading session. We suggest traders to trade positively,
CEATLTD
1120000
-6.60
1125.90
-0.27
we expect Nifty to test 7950-8000 levels.
Historical Volatility
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP
HV
SCRIP
PCR-OI
PCR-VOL
TATACHEM
42.23
NIFTY
0.99
0.87
M&M
45.68
BANKNIFTY
0.95
0.71
BAJAJ-AUTO
34.43
INFY
0.52
0.51
HINDZINC
36.20
SBIN
0.40
0.35
WIPRO
25.78
ICICIBANK
0.56
0.51
Strategy Date
Symbol
Strategy
Status
April 04, 2016
TCS
Ratio Bear Put Spread
Active
April 11, 2016
ITC
Short Strangle
Active
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Technical & Derivatives Report
April 18, 2016
FII Statistics for 13-April 2016
Turnover on 13-April 2016
Open Interest
No. of
Turnover
Change
Detail
Buy
Sell
Net
Instrument
Value
Contracts
( in Cr. )
(%)
Contracts
Change (%)
(in Cr.)
INDEX
INDEX
4076.50
2397.41
1679.09
245179
14046.82
17.11
329641
18216.40
29.14
FUTURES
FUTURES
INDEX
INDEX
36291.79
29987.29
6304.50
1134199
65954.18
4.40
4076932
234094.16
48.92
OPTIONS
OPTIONS
STOCK
4445.86
4516.69
(70.83)
1005514
48052.96
0.47
STOCK
FUTURES
615694
30485.12
24.89
FUTURES
STOCK
STOCK
3533.32
3677.32
(144.00)
75855
3671.97
15.19
OPTIONS
407752
20523.21
59.04
OPTIONS
TOTAL
48347.46
40578.70
7768.76
2460747
131725.92
4.16
TOTAL
5430019
303318.90
45.40
Nifty Spot = 7850.45
Lot Size = 75
Bull-Call Spreads
Bear-Put Spreads
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Buy
7900
71.85
Buy
7800
57.90
37.45
62.55
7937.45
26.30
73.70
7773.70
Sell
8000
34.40
Sell
7700
31.60
Buy
7900
71.85
Buy
7800
57.90
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57.35
142.65
7957.35
40.65
159.35
7759.35
Sell
8100
14.50
Sell
7600
17.25
Buy
8000
34.40
Buy
7700
31.60
19.90
80.10
8019.90
14.35
85.65
7685.65
Sell
8100
14.50
Sell
7600
17.25
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (April Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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Technical & Derivatives Report
April 18, 2016
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ACC
1,441
1,455
1,465
1,480
1,489
ADANIPORTS
229
231
235
237
240
AMBUJACEM
223
227
230
234
236
ASIANPAINT
862
868
872
878
882
AUROPHARMA
774
780
788
793
802
AXISBANK
434
437
441
445
449
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,415
2,499
2,557
2,640
2,698
BANKBARODA
150
151
153
154
155
BHEL
125
129
132
137
140
BPCL
908
917
925
934
942
BHARTIARTL
340
346
355
361
370
INFRATEL
372
379
389
396
407
BOSCH
19,776
19,903
20,076
20,203
20,376
CIPLA
499
506
510
517
521
COALINDIA
274
276
277
279
280
DRREDDY
3,065
3,082
3,102
3,120
3,140
EICHERMOT
19,397
19,647
19,807
20,057
20,218
GAIL
357
363
368
374
379
GRASIM
3,989
4,031
4,075
4,118
4,162
HCLTECH
828
833
840
844
851
HDFCBANK
1,063
1,073
1,079
1,088
1,094
HDFC
1,085
1,100
1,109
1,124
1,132
HEROMOTOCO
2,983
3,066
3,119
3,201
3,254
HINDALCO
91
94
96
98
100
HINDUNILVR
864
881
890
907
916
ICICIBANK
228
234
239
246
250
IDEA
112
113
115
116
118
INDUSINDBK
965
975
985
996
1,005
INFY
1,149
1,161
1,178
1,190
1,207
ITC
321
326
329
334
338
KOTAKBANK
675
684
692
700
709
LT
1,215
1,225
1,239
1,249
1,263
LUPIN
1,520
1,534
1,551
1,566
1,583
M&M
1,212
1,272
1,311
1,371
1,410
MARUTI
3,556
3,644
3,695
3,782
3,833
NTPC
135
136
137
138
139
ONGC
211
212
214
215
216
POWERGRID
143
144
145
146
146
RELIANCE
1,045
1,056
1,063
1,073
1,080
SBIN
189
191
192
194
195
SUNPHARMA
818
825
831
838
844
TCS
2,495
2,511
2,528
2,543
2,560
TATAMTRDVR
292
296
298
302
305
TATAMOTORS
393
401
406
414
420
TATAPOWER
68
69
70
71
71
TATASTEEL
321
327
332
337
342
TECHM
463
467
470
474
477
ULTRACEMCO
3,135
3,204
3,260
3,329
3,384
WIPRO
574
580
586
591
597
YESBANK
861
866
870
875
880
ZEEL
395
398
404
408
414
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Technical & Derivatives Report
April 18, 2016
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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