Technical & Derivatives Report
October 17, 2016
Sensex (27674) / Nifty (8583)
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
The Nifty traded in a narrow range on Friday and ended the
session with marginal gains over its previous close.
Last week, the Nifty could not maintain hold at higher levels and
as expected, the 8800 - 8825 levels acted as a stiff hurdle.
Though, the index has closed at a bit below the 8600 mark, it has
managed to defend the crucial support of
8540
-
8518
successfully. This support zone coincides with the multiple
technical evidences such as the daily ’89 EMA’, ‘Neckline of Head
and Shoulder’ pattern, and a ‘Parabolic SAR’ on weekly chart. In
spite of hovering around such strong support zone, we expect the
Nifty to slip shortly. This cautious stance is laid on the basis of few
key observations such as the formation of ‘Shooting Star’ pattern
on weekly chart occurred during early September. In addition, this
week we saw yet another development in the form of ‘Negative
Directional Indicator
(-DI)’ cutting the ‘Positive Directional
Indicator (+DI)’ from southwards in ADX (14) on weekly chart.
Due to this, the possibility of breaking the ‘Neckline’ level of
(8540 - 8518) the ‘Head and Shoulder’ pattern on daily chart
has increased. In this scenario, an immediate correction towards
8400 - 8287 cannot be ruled out. This hypothesis remains valid
as long as the recent swing of 8745.80 on hourly chart is not
violated. Thus, traders are advised to take into account all these
scenarios and key levels while trading, and stay light on positions.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 8540
Resistance 1 - 8600
Support 2 - 8518
Resistance 2 - 8640
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Nifty Bank Outlook - (19020)
On Friday's trading session, the Nifty Bank index traded in a
narrow range and ended the session with the formation of a
small 'Doji' candle.
As highlighted in our previous report, the Nifty Bank index is
currently trading near crucial support zone placed in the range of
18795-18841, as '20 EMA' on the weekly chart and '89 EMA' on
the daily chart coincides in this range. However, although near
the support, the index has not shown any reversal signs and
hence the short-term trend continues to be negative. In case the
index manages to show any pullback move from hereon, there is
a higher probability of only selective stocks participating in that
move. Sooner or later, we are expecting this support range to be
breached and hence, traders are advised not to participate
aggressively in the pullback rallies. The intraday support for the
index is placed in the range of 18840-18795 whereas resistances
are seen around 19100 and 19210.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 18840
Resistance 1 - 19100
Support 2 - 18795
Resistance 2 - 19210
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1
Technical & Derivatives Report
October 17, 2016
Comments
Nifty Vs OI
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 1.80%
BankNifty futures open interest has decreased by 1.56%
as market closed at 8583.40 levels.
The Nifty October future closed with a premium of 21.70
against the premium of 7.10 points in last trading
session. The November series closed at a premium of
59.95 points.
The Implied Volatility of at the money options has
decreased from 14.06% to 13.16%. At the same time,
the PCR-OI of Nifty has remained unchanged at 0.93.
The total OI of the market is Rs. 2,67,103/- cr. and the
stock futures OI is Rs. 79,096/- cr.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are SAIL, BAJFINANCE, NHPC, TATACHEM and
IFCI.
Views
OI Gainers
OI
PRICE
FIIs were net sellers in cash market segment; they sold
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
equities to the tune of Rs. 946 crores. While, in index
PETRONET
5814000
20.60
402.45
5.78
future, their activity was subdued.
IOC
12225000
18.65
643.70
2.40
On Index Options front, FIIs bought of worth Rs. 404
DHFL
16569000
16.91
301.30
5.92
crores with good amount of rise in OI. In call options,ng.com
ZEEL
8173100
15.27
530.75
-3.26
8700 and 8800 strikes added huge positions; we believe
IGL
1809500
13.53
852.60
0.37
these are longs formed by weaker hands. While, in put
ULTRACEMCO
1012800
11.15
4056.35
1.67
options, 8000-8500 strikes remained active and they
OIL
1417800
10.76
419.90
0.95
also added some fresh longs. FIIs options data suggests,
HDFC
12047000
8.61
1322.10
-1.63
positions formed in these strikes are more of long
positions formed by FIIs. Maximum OI in October series
is placed at 9000 call and 8500 put options.
OI Losers
Last week, we witness huge amount of profit-booking in
OI
PRICE
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
Index Futures by FIIs. We saw considerable amount of
LT
7125000
-8.30
1475.65
2.54
unwinding in Nifty and fresh short formation in BankNifty
TCS
4588750
-7.83
2369.85
2.13
on a WoW basis. While, out of the money put options,
CEATLTD
1469300
-6.13
1379.45
-0.99
8000-8200 strikes are also quite active and FIIs have
MOTHERSUMI
8962500
-5.48
331.65
2.93
been buying these puts. We also witness writing in 8700
INDUSINDBK
5289600
-5.20
1220.50
-0.09
and 8800 call options indicating wall of resistance for
AMARAJABAT
568200
-5.02
1045.20
0.87
Nifty. Thus, looking at the above data, we believe Nifty
TV18BRDCST
82654000
-4.95
43.85
-6.50
may remain under pressure, avoid longs.
MARUTI
1763700
-4.84
5699.55
-0.62
Historical Volatility
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP
HV
SCRIP
PCR-OI
PCR-VOL
PETRONET
44.26
NIFTY
0.93
0.84
L&TFH
60.61
BANKNIFTY
0.86
0.71
VOLTAS
40.48
INFY
0.48
0.58
NIITTECH
43.63
RELIANCE
0.43
0.43
GAIL
39.91
ICICIBANK
0.48
0.37
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2
Technical & Derivatives Report
October 17, 2016
FII Statistics for 14, October 2016
Turnover on 14, October 2016
Open Interest
No. of
Turnover
Change
Detail
Buy
Sell
Net
Instrument
Value
Change
Contracts
( in Cr. )
(%)
Contracts
(in Cr.)
(%)
INDEX
INDEX
1136.86
1072.73
64.13
234170
15557.07
0.36
182944
12406.25
-42.81
FUTURES
FUTURES
INDEX
INDEX
30367.37
29963.52
403.86
1073362
70644.27
6.17
2836432
195529.90
-62.94
OPTIONS
OPTIONS
STOCK
7146.82
6614.30
532.52
877035
57508.60
0.55
STOCK
FUTURES
561225
38664.53
-9.87
FUTURES
STOCK
STOCK
6269.19
6428.71
(159.52)
100294
6632.62
8.61
OPTIONS
532985
34272.08
6.82
OPTIONS
TOTAL
44920.24
44079.26
840.98
2284861
150342.55
3.44
TOTAL
4113586
280872.77
-55.00
Nifty Spot = 8583.40
Lot Size = 75
Bull-Call Spreads
Bear-Put Spreads
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Buy
8600
85.95
Buy
8600
83.65
44.10
55.90
8644.10
34.80
65.20
8565.20
Sell
8700
41.85
Sell
8500
48.85
Buy
8600
85.95
Buy
8600
83.65
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68.15
131.85
8668.15
55.10
144.90
8544.90
Sell
8800
17.80
Sell
8400
28.55
Buy
8700
41.85
Buy
8500
48.85
24.05
75.95
8724.05
20.30
79.70
8479.70
Sell
8800
17.80
Sell
8400
28.55
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (October Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 17, 2016
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ACC
1,619
1,630
1,640
1,651
1,661
ADANIPORTS
249
252
254
257
259
AMBUJACEM
250
251
253
255
256
ASIANPAINT
1,192
1,199
1,209
1,216
1,227
AUROPHARMA
806
815
822
831
839
AXISBANK
513
517
521
525
529
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,757
2,777
2,813
2,834
2,870
BANKBARODA
151
153
154
156
157
BHEL
131
132
133
134
135
BPCL
653
660
666
673
679
BHARTIARTL
300
303
305
308
311
INFRATEL
353
359
370
376
386
BOSCH
22,464
22,634
22,820
22,990
23,177
CIPLA
580
583
587
590
594
COALINDIA
309
311
315
317
320
DRREDDY
2,997
3,014
3,039
3,056
3,080
EICHERMOT
24,915
25,157
25,574
25,816
26,233
GAIL
406
418
425
438
445
GRASIM
976
985
993
1,003
1,010
HCLTECH
789
801
812
824
834
HDFCBANK
1,247
1,255
1,261
1,269
1,275
HDFC
1,295
1,305
1,324
1,334
1,353
HEROMOTOCO
3,445
3,464
3,490
3,508
3,535
HINDALCO
152
153
155
156
158
HINDUNILVR
826
834
845
853
863
ICICIBANK
238
240
241
243
245
IDEA
73
74
75
76
78
INDUSINDBK
1,195
1,207
1,217
1,229
1,239
INFY
949
988
1,035
1,074
1,122
ITC
237
238
239
241
242
KOTAKBANK
765
774
779
787
792
LT
1,425
1,450
1,464
1,489
1,502
LUPIN
1,429
1,447
1,468
1,486
1,508
M&M
1,339
1,348
1,362
1,372
1,386
MARUTI
5,611
5,651
5,709
5,749
5,807
NTPC
143
144
145
146
147
ONGC
269
273
276
280
283
POWERGRID
170
174
176
180
182
RELIANCE
1,053
1,066
1,074
1,086
1,094
SBIN
247
250
252
254
256
SUNPHARMA
734
740
743
749
753
TCS
2,252
2,309
2,348
2,405
2,444
TATAMTRDVR
351
356
360
365
368
TATAMOTORS
540
548
553
561
565
TATAPOWER
77
78
78
79
79
TATASTEEL
405
409
413
417
421
TECHM
411
415
422
427
434
ULTRACEMCO
3,934
3,985
4,022
4,073
4,109
WIPRO
470
472
477
479
484
YESBANK
1,234
1,247
1,257
1,271
1,281
ZEEL
509
519
535
545
561
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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 17, 2016
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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