Technical & Derivatives Report
October 14, 2016
Sensex (27643) / Nifty (8573)
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
After two days of holiday, our markets opened lower citing
negative cues from the global peers. Subsequently, we witnessed
a reinforced negativity as the day progressed. As a result, the
Nifty kept on descending throughout the major part of the
session. Due to minor recovery in the penultimate hour, the index
eventually closed with a decent cut of 1.56% over its previous
close.
It seems that our cautious stance on the market and a strategy of
using every bounce as a selling opportunity has played out well in
the recent past. Though, the Nifty is yet to confirm a breakdown
from the major near term support of 8518, yesterday’s down
move has provided more conviction to our hypothesis. It’s a
matter of time that the index would validate this development on
chart, which in technical term can be called as a breakdown from
the ‘Head & Shoulder’ pattern, which has a negative implication.
Going ahead, traders would closely keep an eye on 8538 - 8518
levels and a sustainable move below this would unfold further
downside levels. On the flipside, 8600 - 8640 would be seen as
intraday hurdles for the Nifty. Traders are advised to stay light on
positions and not to be in a hurry to catch the bottom.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 8538
Resistance 1 - 8600
Support 2 - 8518
Resistance 2 - 8640
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Nifty Bank Outlook - (18954)
The Nifty Bank index opened gap down yesterday and as the
session progressed, the bears completely dominated to end the
day with loss of 2.19 percent.
Since last couple of weeks, we have been maintaining our short
term negative stance on the index due to the ‘lower top lower
bottom’ structure on daily chart. Yesterday's gap down opening
was a continuation gap, thus resulting into continuation of the
corrective move. On daily charts, the Nifty Bank index breached
the recent low of 19059 and has registered low around the '89
DEMA'. The near term support for the index is now placed in
range of 18841-18795 since the '89EMA' on daily chart and the
'20EMA' on weekly chart coincide in the mentioned range. While
we may see a pullback move from the support, traders are still
advised to remain cautious as the pullback rallies are likely to get
sold into. The intraday support for the index is placed in range of
18841-18795 whereas resistances are seen around 19158 and
19317.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 18841
Resistance 1 - 19158
Support 2 - 18795
Resistance 2 - 19317
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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 14, 2016
Comments
Nifty Vs OI
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 5.49%
BankNifty futures open interest has increased by 12.25%
as market closed at 8573.35 levels.
The Nifty October future closed with a premium of 7.10
against the premium of 31.15 points in last trading
session. The November series closed at a premium of
48.35 points.
The Implied Volatility of at the money options has
increased from 12.35% to 14.06%. At the same time, the
PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased from 0.96 to 0.93.
The total OI of the market is Rs. 2,74,700/- cr. and the
stock futures OI is Rs. 78,272/- cr.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are ADANIPOWER, TORNTPOWER, IDFC,
GODREJCP and JINDALSTEL.
Views
OI Gainers
FIIs were net sellers in both cash market segment and
OI
PRICE
index futures. They sold equities to the tune of Rs. 912
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
crores. While, in index future, they were net sellers of
CROMPGREAV
13896000
20.75
75.30
-2.14
Rs.2330 crores with more than 13% fall in OI, indicating
IOC
10303500
19.94
628.60
-1.42
huge amount of long unwinding in yesterday’s trading
IDEA
72765000
14.71
75.55
-5.68
session.
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BANKINDIA
28500000
13.75
110.75
-4.89
On Index Options front, FIIs bought of worth Rs. 1138
TORNTPOWER
1215000
13.45
174.35
-3.38
crores with good amount of rise in OI. In call options,
INDUSINDBK
5580000
11.67
1221.65
-0.14
8700 and 8600 strikes added huge positions; we believe
TCS
4978750
10.22
2320.40
-2.34
these are longs formed by weaker hands. While, in put
ORIENTBANK
15150000
8.65
123.65
-3.96
options, we saw open interest addition in 8500 strike and
deep out of the money strikes, 7800-8100. Positions
formed in these strikes are more of long positions formed
OI Losers
OI
PRICE
by FIIs. Maximum OI in October series is placed at 9000
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
call and of put options has been shifted from 8600 to
PCJEWELLER
925500
-13.22
499.00
-4.54
8500 strike price.
MRF
46170
-10.96
53448.15
0.32
Yesterday, FIIs continued profit booking in Index Futures
TV18BRDCST
86955000
-10.81
46.90
-6.01
and the quantum was huge. At the same time, they also
PIDILITIND
1786000
-10.57
726.25
-0.94
bought good amount of put options indicating further
ACC
1366800
-9.17
1634.95
-2.41
pain in Nifty. Thus, looking at the FIIs data, we believe
TATASTEEL
22162000
-8.39
415.10
-0.93
Nifty may breach its immediate support of 8500-8550.
HEROMOTOCO
1062000
-7.44
3502.30
0.05
Trades should avoid any longs and look for shorting on
L&TFH
36063000
-6.27
92.55
-1.91
bounce.
Historical Volatility
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP
HV
SCRIP
PCR-OI
PCR-VOL
COLPAL
23.62
NIFTY
0.93
0.99
HDFC
27.53
BANKNIFTY
0.51
0.74
RELIANCE
27.64
INFY
0.60
0.58
JSWENERGY
44.54
RELIANCE
0.42
0.44
CESC
35.28
TCS
0.88
0.93
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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 14, 2016
FII Statistics for 13, October 2016
Turnover on 13, October 2016
Open Interest
No. of
Turnover
Change
Detail
Buy
Sell
Net
Instrument
Value
Change
Contracts
( in Cr. )
(%)
Contracts
(in Cr.)
(%)
INDEX
INDEX
1753.62
4083.50
(2329.88)
233325
15460.91
(13.21)
316129
21694.01
157.76
FUTURES
FUTURES
INDEX
INDEX
47409.42
46271.11
1138.32
1010959
66278.20
5.01
7285159
527548.44
240.72
OPTIONS
OPTIONS
STOCK
8075.45
8127.83
(52.38)
872245
56844.55
0.87
STOCK
FUTURES
598735
42899.58
50.00
FUTURES
STOCK
STOCK
6520.17
6680.15
(159.99)
92340
6125.73
14.19
OPTIONS
453560
32084.78
88.19
OPTIONS
TOTAL
63758.66
65162.60
(1403.94)
2208869
144709.39
1.45
TOTAL
8653583
624226.81
198.82
Nifty Spot = 8573.35
Lot Size = 75
Bull-Call Spreads
Bear-Put Spreads
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Buy
8600
83.65
Buy
8500
64.00
41.35
58.65
8641.35
24.25
75.75
8475.75
Sell
8700
42.30
Sell
8400
39.75
Buy
8600
83.65
Buy
8500
64.00
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64.95
135.05
8664.95
39.10
160.90
8460.90
Sell
8800
18.70
Sell
8300
24.90
Buy
8700
42.30
Buy
8400
39.75
23.60
76.40
8723.60
14.85
85.15
8385.15
Sell
8800
18.70
Sell
8300
24.90
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (October Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 14, 2016
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ACC
1,601
1,616
1,638
1,654
1,676
ADANIPORTS
239
245
254
260
269
AMBUJACEM
247
250
253
255
258
ASIANPAINT
1,199
1,208
1,218
1,226
1,236
AUROPHARMA
795
808
831
844
867
AXISBANK
504
511
521
528
537
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,775
2,800
2,840
2,865
2,906
BANKBARODA
145
150
156
160
166
BHEL
129
131
133
134
136
BPCL
633
645
658
670
682
BHARTIARTL
300
304
309
312
317
INFRATEL
367
371
373
377
379
BOSCH
22,524
22,654
22,846
22,976
23,168
CIPLA
569
575
587
594
606
COALINDIA
309
312
315
319
322
DRREDDY
2,997
3,024
3,054
3,081
3,111
EICHERMOT
25,372
25,588
25,783
25,998
26,194
GAIL
401
408
416
422
431
GRASIM
966
980
1,002
1,015
1,037
HCLTECH
772
788
806
822
841
HDFCBANK
1,244
1,253
1,266
1,276
1,289
HDFC
1,293
1,316
1,358
1,381
1,423
HEROMOTOCO
3,443
3,472
3,496
3,525
3,549
HINDALCO
148
152
156
159
163
HINDUNILVR
841
851
863
874
885
ICICIBANK
234
237
243
247
252
IDEA
73
74
77
79
82
INDUSINDBK
1,188
1,202
1,224
1,238
1,260
INFY
1,007
1,030
1,044
1,066
1,081
ITC
235
237
239
241
244
KOTAKBANK
759
766
772
779
785
LT
1,423
1,431
1,439
1,447
1,455
LUPIN
1,448
1,464
1,490
1,506
1,532
M&M
1,337
1,354
1,369
1,385
1,401
MARUTI
5,608
5,663
5,708
5,763
5,808
NTPC
141
143
145
147
149
ONGC
261
267
271
277
281
POWERGRID
171
173
176
177
180
RELIANCE
1,029
1,043
1,066
1,080
1,103
SBIN
241
245
250
255
260
SUNPHARMA
724
732
743
751
762
TCS
2,291
2,310
2,340
2,359
2,389
TATAMTRDVR
343
349
355
361
367
TATAMOTORS
526
536
546
556
566
TATAPOWER
75
76
79
80
82
TATASTEEL
403
408
414
420
426
TECHM
414
418
421
425
429
ULTRACEMCO
3,909
3,947
3,981
4,020
4,053
WIPRO
473
475
477
480
482
YESBANK
1,210
1,233
1,258
1,281
1,307
ZEEL
522
534
551
564
581
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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 14, 2016
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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