Technical & Derivatives Report
September 14, 2016
Sensex (28354) / Nifty (8716)
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
The opening session of the week started with a massive downside
gap on mounting fears over US Federal Reserve cut. However,
post the weak opening; we witnessed consolidation in a small
range throughout the remaining part of the day to close tad
above the 8700 mark.
Technically speaking, this profit booking was on cards as
suggested in the previous reports. We have been advocating
caution and emphasizing on lightening up longs since last few
days after reaching the strong resistance zone of 8960 - 8980.
Thus, not so surprised with this down move. However, having said
that, a breach of 8750 with a huge downside gap was slightly
unexpected; but, practically, market has a tendency to surprise in
such manner after entering the extreme overbought territory.
Now, going ahead, yesterday’s downside gap area of 8858.70 -
8746.95 is likely to act as a strong resistance. Any attempt of
bouncing back towards 8780 - 8800 could be a short selling
opportunity for momentum traders; whereas, on the lower side,
the next support is seen at 8680 - 8642 levels. We expect the
index to trade in a range; but the bias would be on the negative
side.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 8680
Resistance 1 - 8780
Support 2 - 8642
Resistance 2 - 8800
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Nifty Bank Outlook - (19791)
Yesterday, the Nifty Bank index too opened substantially lower
and thrashed its important support zone of 19990 - 19911 with a
gap. Eventually, the index managed to close tad below the 19800
mark with more than two percent loss.
Now, if we look at the weekly chart, the picture looks so scary as
the ‘Island Reversal’ pattern is in process. Though, it would be too
early to take this call (since the weekly action has just begun), we
would advise traders to keep a close eye on rest of the week’s
price movement, which would be a very crucial development in
the near term. In next three sessions, if the index manages to fill
this gap area of 19861 - 20139 then the pattern gets negated,
which would then nullify the bearish implication of the pattern.
However, if it fails to do so, traders with a near term view should
look to exit longs and should rather use every minor bounce to
create fresh positions on the short side. Since, the pattern is in
process and needs a confirmation, this weekly close would be
very important in order to take a decisive direction for the
forthcoming weeks.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 19635
Resistance 1 - 19861
Support 2 - 19500
Resistance 2 - 20139
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1
Technical & Derivatives Report
September 14, 2016
Comments
Nifty Vs OI
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 1.84%
BankNifty futures open interest has decreased by 14.47%
as market closed at 8715.60 levels.
The Nifty September future closed with a premium of
26.35 points against a premium of 37.05 points in
previous session. The October series closed at a
premium of 66.75 points.
The Implied Volatility of at the money options has
increased from 11.56% to 14.32%. At the same time, the
PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased from 1.18 to 1.10.
The total OI of the market is Rs. 2,93,717/- cr. and the
stock futures OI is Rs. 81,809/- cr.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are HDFCBANK, IDFC, KSCL, ALBK and
TATAPOWER.
Views
FIIs continue selling in both cash market segment and
OI Gainers
Index Futures. On Monday, they sold equities to the tune
OI
PRICE
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
of Rs. 594 crores. While, they were net sellers in index
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
future of Rs. 598 crores with some rise in OI, indicating
VEDL
42966000
14.47
162.15
-5.81
blend of fresh short formations and long unwinding in
GRANULES
13320000
9.23
117.60
-6.74
last trading session.
CAIRN
17762500
8.72
189.95
-5.21
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On Index Options front, FIIs bought significantly of Rs.
APOLLOHOSP
613200
7.81
1314.40
-3.29
5578 crores with rise in OI. In call options, 8700-8900
HINDALCO
36946000
7.25
141.45
-9.01
strikes remained active and they also added good
PCJEWELLER
520500
5.47
478.90
-1.19
amount of positions. We believe, these are long
ANDHRABANK
16180000
5.41
58.95
-5.98
positions formed by weaker hands. On the other hand,
MOTHERSUMI
12860000
5.24
312.85
-5.17
in put options, we hardly saw any strikes adding
meaningful OI. We witness huge unwinding in 8700-
OI Losers
8900 put options. FIIs in start of September series
OI
PRICE
formed meaningful shorts in 8700-8900 put options;
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
yesterday they lightened most of these positions
OIL
1759500
-13.75
387.25
-1.25
anticipating further correction. Highest OI in September
TORNTPHARM
329600
-11.78
1658.70
-0.63
series is placed at 9000 call and 8600 put option.
IRB
12907500
-8.88
241.00
-2.61
We witness FIIs selling in both equity cash and Index
CENTURYTEX
7122500
-8.85
819.60
-1.80
Futures. While, they also booked losses in their puts that
TVSMOTOR
4900000
-8.68
321.20
-3.03
they sold earlier. Seeing the above data, we believe Nifty
HAVELLS
3066000
-8.64
409.85
-2.24
may continue to remain under pressure. Thus, traders
VOLTAS
3576000
-8.45
375.85
-3.81
should square-off their longs and look for shorting near
NCC
31800000
-7.82
83.65
-5.37
8750-8800 levels.
Historical Volatility
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP
HV
SCRIP
PCR-OI
PCR-VOL
HDIL
71.09
NIFTY
1.10
1.12
SRF
34.68
BANKNIFTY
0.91
0.97
HINDALCO
60.38
RELIANCE
0.51
0.60
DHFL
48.56
YESBANK
0.47
0.52
GRANULES
45.08
SBIN
0.62
0.65
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2
Technical & Derivatives Report
September 14, 2016
FII Statistics for 12, September 2016
Turnover on 12, September 2016
Open Interest
No. of
Turnover
Change
Detail
Buy
Sell
Net
Instrument
Value
Contracts
( in Cr. )
(%)
Contracts
Change (%)
(in Cr.)
INDEX
INDEX
3210.57
3808.09
(597.52)
459243
30668.09
0.66
288633
20203.46
20.38
FUTURES
FUTURES
INDEX
INDEX
50049.87
44471.68
5578.19
1211676
81391.70
1.57
4125757
294932.40
22.27
OPTIONS
OPTIONS
STOCK
5513.53
6435.74
(922.21)
899398
59179.60
0.88
STOCK
FUTURES
585962
42068.00
-13.20
FUTURES
STOCK
STOCK
6983.69
6994.05
(10.36)
109845
7535.59
1.41
OPTIONS
418156
31335.05
0.74
OPTIONS
TOTAL
65757.66
61709.55
4048.10
2680162
178774.99
1.17
TOTAL
5418508
388538.91
15.10
Nifty Spot = 8715.60
Lot Size = 75
Bull-Call Spreads
Bear-Put Spreads
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Buy
8800
76.80
Buy
8700
89.45
36.45
63.55
8836.45
31.30
68.70
8668.70
Sell
8900
40.35
Sell
8600
58.15
Buy
8800
76.80
Buy
8700
89.45
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58.35
141.65
8858.35
51.25
148.75
8648.75
Sell
9000
18.45
Sell
8500
38.20
Buy
8900
40.35
Buy
8600
58.15
21.90
78.10
8921.90
19.95
80.05
8580.05
Sell
9000
18.45
Sell
8500
38.20
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (September Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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Technical & Derivatives Report
September 14, 2016
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ACC
1,528
1,555
1,598
1,625
1,667
ADANIPORTS
249
255
262
267
274
AMBUJACEM
252
256
263
267
274
ASIANPAINT
1,126
1,140
1,152
1,166
1,178
AUROPHARMA
768
775
787
794
805
AXISBANK
581
586
594
600
608
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,901
2,928
2,953
2,980
3,005
BANKBARODA
157
159
164
166
170
BHEL
142
145
149
152
157
BPCL
549
557
572
580
594
BHARTIARTL
310
314
318
322
326
INFRATEL
337
340
344
347
351
BOSCH
23,027
23,254
23,627
23,854
24,227
CIPLA
554
562
571
579
587
COALINDIA
325
328
330
333
336
DRREDDY
3,099
3,118
3,152
3,171
3,205
EICHERMOT
22,291
22,516
22,671
22,896
23,050
GAIL
380
383
387
390
393
GRASIM
4,517
4,576
4,636
4,695
4,755
HCLTECH
760
771
782
793
804
HDFCBANK
1,266
1,273
1,279
1,286
1,292
HDFC
1,358
1,379
1,394
1,415
1,431
HEROMOTOCO
3,464
3,498
3,527
3,561
3,590
HINDALCO
133
137
144
148
154
HINDUNILVR
906
912
919
925
931
ICICIBANK
260
264
267
271
274
IDEA
81
82
83
84
85
INDUSINDBK
1,177
1,186
1,195
1,204
1,213
INFY
1,013
1,034
1,046
1,066
1,079
ITC
249
250
254
255
259
KOTAKBANK
801
807
811
817
821
LT
1,440
1,452
1,472
1,483
1,503
LUPIN
1,507
1,520
1,541
1,554
1,575
M&M
1,391
1,409
1,433
1,451
1,475
MARUTI
5,211
5,270
5,310
5,369
5,409
NTPC
148
151
154
157
160
ONGC
246
249
251
253
255
POWERGRID
177
179
181
183
185
RELIANCE
1,017
1,032
1,044
1,059
1,071
SBIN
247
250
254
257
261
SUNPHARMA
771
779
787
796
804
TCS
2,309
2,334
2,349
2,374
2,389
TATAMTRDVR
337
344
352
359
367
TATAMOTORS
543
548
554
559
565
TATAPOWER
72
73
75
76
78
TATASTEEL
361
367
377
383
392
TECHM
448
456
461
469
474
ULTRACEMCO
3,788
3,827
3,884
3,923
3,979
WIPRO
467
474
479
485
490
YESBANK
1,165
1,185
1,217
1,237
1,269
ZEEL
501
508
519
526
537
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Technical & Derivatives Report
September 14, 2016
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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