Technical & Derivatives Report
October 03, 2016
Sensex (27866) / Nifty (8611)
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
The Nifty traded in a narrow range on Friday and closed with
minor gains over its previous close.
On the daily chart, the ‘Lower Top Lower Bottom’ formation has
been confirmed to be coupled with the falling RSI values. Further,
if we broaden our time frames by looking at the weekly and
monthly chart, the picture seems to be not so encouraging there
as well. The ‘Shooting Star’ pattern formed on the weekly chart
during the preantepenultimate week showed its significance and
now we can observe a negative crossover in ‘RSI-smoothened’ in
the overbought territory for the first time in the past 19 months. At
this juncture, 8550 - 8510 seems to be a strong support.
However, the probability of breaking this support has increased.
The materialization of this to be expected in the forthcoming week
or later will be assessed as the trading activity progresses.
However, going ahead 8688 - 8800 has become a stiff hurdle
for the Nifty. In case of a bounce, we may see strong selling
pressure around these levels. On the downside, we may see
amplification of this corrective move towards 8398 - 8287, after
convincingly breaking the key support zone of 8550 - 8510.
Thus, it is advisable for traders to stay light on positions and avoid
taking undue risks.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 8550
Resistance 1 - 8688
Support 2 - 8510
Resistance 2 - 8750
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Nifty Bank Outlook - (19286)
The Nifty Bank index traded range bound on Friday's session and
ended the day with gains of 0.53 percent. However, the weekly
charts clearly depicts that the bears were dominating as the index
lost 3.10 percent over its previous week's close.
Post a large body bearish candle on Thursday, the index
consolidated in a range on Friday as the bulls tried to comeback
with positive momentum in the midcap stocks in the broader
market. However, the heavyweights of the Nifty Bank index have
not shown any signs of reversal and thus, we continue with our
cautious stance on the index. The pullback moves, if any, are
likely to get sold into and hence, short term traders are advised
not to get carried away on intraday upmoves. The volatility is
expected to remain high and thus, traders are advised to follow
proper risk management on trading positions. The intraday
support for the Nifty Bank index are placed around 19059 and
18900 whereas resistances are seen in range of 19410-19470.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 19059
Resistance 1 - 19410
Support 2 - 18900
Resistance 2 - 19470
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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 03, 2016
Comments
Nifty Vs OI
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 3.26%
BankNifty futures open interest has increased by 4.78%
as market closed at 8611.15 levels.
The Nifty October future closed with a premium of 29.50
against the premium of 47.00 points in last trading
session. The November series closed at a premium of
70.10 points.
The Implied Volatility of at the money options has
decreased from 16.92% to 15.82%. At the same time,
the PCR-OI of Nifty remained unchanged at 0.94.
The total OI of the market is Rs. 2,24,603/- cr. and the
stock futures OI is Rs. 73,795/- cr.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are JPASSOCIAT, SOUTHBANK, HDFCBANK,
TORNTPOWER and ADANIPOWER.
Views
OI Gainers
FIIs were net sellers in both equity cash and Index Futures
OI
PRICE
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
segment. They sold equities worth Rs. 1028 crores.
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
While, they were net sellers in index future worth Rs.
TVSMOTOR
5434000
36.46
364.60
5.13
1380 crores with good amount of fall in OI, indicating
CEATLTD
1291500
22.02
1331.75
8.16
long unwinding in last trading session.
CANBK
10872000
20.24
310.20
4.15
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On Index Options front, FIIs bought to the tune of Rs.
PNB
41223000
16.73
141.50
2.72
550 crores with good amount of rise in OI. In call
OIL
800700
14.60
402.95
1.35
options, 8600, 8900 and 9000 strike added decent
WOCKPHARMA
2892600
14.54
883.95
1.82
buildup; these are blend of long and short positions. On
ORIENTBANK
12618000
12.40
126.25
2.06
the other hand in put options, 8500, 8400 and 8200
APOLLOTYRE
10113000
11.73
221.45
4.56
strikes added some positions. Seeing at the FIIs options
data, we believe they have bought these put options.
OI Losers
Highest OI in October series is placed at 9000 call and
OI
PRICE
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
8500 put option.
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
We witness continuation of good amount of long
TATACHEM
5266500
-15.21
528.00
3.07
unwinding in Friday’s trading session. While, in Index
L&TFH
37485000
-8.50
91.85
6.62
Options too FIIs are forming fresh longs in out of the
NMDC
16404000
-6.18
106.20
3.26
money put options. The above data suggest, market
BANKBARODA
33572000
-4.36
168.25
3.38
may remain under pressure and may also test its support
INFRATEL
3197600
-4.32
366.60
-1.68
zone of 8500-8550 in near term. Thus, traders are
INFY
13303000
-4.16
1030.20
0.38
suggested the avoid bottom fishing in this market.
M&M
5995500
-3.94
1409.95
2.77
RELIANCE
18665000
-3.46
1088.40
0.84
Historical Volatility
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP
HV
SCRIP
PCR-OI
PCR-VOL
MCDOWELL-N
41.19
NIFTY
0.94
1.05
TATACOMM
63.99
BANKNIFTY
0.88
0.85
CIPLA
29.74
RELIANCE
0.58
0.51
GODREJIND
36.02
SBIN
0.65
0.63
M&M
25.50
ICICIBANK
0.45
0.44
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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 03, 2016
FII Statistics for 30, September 2016
Turnover on 30, September 2016
Open Interest
No. of
Turnover
Change
Detail
Buy
Sell
Net
Instrument
Value
Change
Contracts
( in Cr. )
(%)
Contracts
(in Cr.)
(%)
INDEX
INDEX
1916.58
3296.52
(1379.94)
258062
17112.18
(7.65)
282006
19404.98
-66.60
FUTURES
FUTURES
INDEX
INDEX
47649.07
47098.84
550.23
867325
56810.97
11.75
2918713
202301.34
-76.39
OPTIONS
OPTIONS
STOCK
8201.24
7712.57
488.67
842097
54977.99
1.55
STOCK
FUTURES
581225
40925.22
-70.35
FUTURES
STOCK
STOCK
4118.37
3941.00
177.37
34078
2293.16
445.34
OPTIONS
284699
20430.81
-58.17
OPTIONS
TOTAL
61885.25
62048.92
(163.67)
2001562
131194.30
5.84
TOTAL
4066643
283062.35
-74.31
Nifty Spot = 8611.15
Lot Size = 75
Bull-Call Spreads
Bear-Put Spreads
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Buy
8700
118.00
Buy
8500
98.25
43.45
56.55
8743.45
25.65
74.35
8474.35
Sell
8800
74.55
Sell
8400
72.60
Buy
8700
118.00
Buy
8500
98.25
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74.40
125.60
8774.40
44.30
155.70
8455.70
Sell
8900
43.60
Sell
8300
53.95
Buy
8800
74.55
Buy
8400
72.60
30.95
69.05
8830.95
18.65
81.35
8381.35
Sell
8900
43.60
Sell
8300
53.95
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (October Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 03, 2016
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ACC
1,560
1,580
1,596
1,616
1,632
ADANIPORTS
245
251
255
261
266
AMBUJACEM
246
249
252
255
259
ASIANPAINT
1,142
1,151
1,166
1,175
1,190
AUROPHARMA
803
829
844
871
886
AXISBANK
523
532
540
549
556
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,793
2,810
2,834
2,851
2,875
BANKBARODA
157
162
165
170
173
BHEL
131
133
134
136
137
BPCL
597
605
612
620
626
BHARTIARTL
304
309
313
318
321
INFRATEL
354
360
367
372
379
BOSCH
22,362
22,580
22,742
22,959
23,121
CIPLA
540
560
582
602
624
COALINDIA
311
317
323
328
335
DRREDDY
3,027
3,066
3,097
3,137
3,168
EICHERMOT
23,975
24,401
24,976
25,402
25,976
GAIL
359
367
372
379
384
GRASIM
4,647
4,742
4,802
4,897
4,957
HCLTECH
780
790
797
807
814
HDFCBANK
1,260
1,267
1,274
1,280
1,287
HDFC
1,375
1,385
1,392
1,402
1,409
HEROMOTOCO
3,358
3,386
3,416
3,444
3,474
HINDALCO
144
148
151
156
159
HINDUNILVR
856
862
871
877
886
ICICIBANK
244
248
251
255
257
IDEA
76
78
79
81
83
INDUSINDBK
1,169
1,183
1,195
1,208
1,220
INFY
1,024
1,030
1,037
1,043
1,050
ITC
237
240
243
246
250
KOTAKBANK
759
768
775
784
791
LT
1,399
1,416
1,428
1,445
1,457
LUPIN
1,447
1,467
1,478
1,498
1,509
M&M
1,325
1,365
1,390
1,431
1,456
MARUTI
5,338
5,407
5,452
5,522
5,567
NTPC
145
146
149
151
154
ONGC
247
252
255
259
262
POWERGRID
169
173
175
179
181
RELIANCE
1,053
1,068
1,082
1,097
1,110
SBIN
243
247
250
254
257
SUNPHARMA
731
737
741
747
751
TCS
2,408
2,420
2,435
2,447
2,462
TATAMTRDVR
328
334
338
345
349
TATAMOTORS
515
525
531
540
546
TATAPOWER
71
73
75
77
78
TATASTEEL
358
366
372
380
386
TECHM
408
415
425
431
441
ULTRACEMCO
3,804
3,828
3,862
3,885
3,919
WIPRO
470
475
477
482
484
YESBANK
1,194
1,224
1,242
1,272
1,289
ZEEL
534
540
547
553
559
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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 03, 2016
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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