Market Outlook
March 31, 2016
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are expected to open on a flat note tracking the SGX Nifty and
BSE Sensex
1.8
438
25,339
positive global cues.
Nifty
1.8
138
7,735
US indices ended positive although well off the day’s highs as the Fed comments
Mid Cap
1.8
187
10,547
continued to help markets. Traders keenly await the jobs report to be released today
Small Cap
1.9
192
10,493
for further cues on the rate hike.
Bankex
3.1
557
18,389
European markets rallied sharply as investors reacted to the Fed comments
indicating interest rate hikes could be more gradual.
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian shares rallied and the rupee hit a near three-month high as Federal Reserve
Dow Jones
0.5
84
17,717
Chair Janet Yellen struck a cautious stance on the outlook for U.S. interest rates and
Nasdaq
0.5
23
4,869
the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) hiked foreign portfolio investor (FPI) investment limits
FTSE
1.6
97
6,203
in central and state government securities. Bank Nifty rose sharply after Vijay Mallya
Nikkei
(1.3)
(225)
16,879
submitted a repayment plan of `4000cr to the Supreme Court.
Hang Seng
2.1
437
20,803
News & Result Analysis
Shanghai Com
2.8
81
3,001
Tata Steel intends to sell entire UK operations
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Advances
1,871
1,235
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Declines
773
337
Unchanged
146
49
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Refer Pg5 onwards
Volumes (` Cr)
Top Picks
BSE
2,546
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
NSE
18,162
Amara Raja
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Buy
890
1,040
16.9
HCL Tech
IT
Buy
821
1,038
26.4
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
LIC Housing
Financials
Buy
487
592
21.4
FII
641
21,328
(16,840)
Bharat Electronics
Capital Goods
Buy
1,210
1,414
16.9
MFs
(592)
(5,784)
69,034
Navkar Corporation Others
Buy
177
265
50.0
More Top Picks on Pg3
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Key Upcoming Events
Adanipower
33
10.9
Previous
Consensus
Date
Region
Event Description
Reading
Expectations
Fincables
288
8.9
Mar 31 USA
Initial Jobless claims (‘000)
265.0
265.0
Suzlon
14
8.1
Apr 5 India
RBI Repo Rate%
6.75
6.50
Eidparry
215
8.0
Apr 8 India
Imports YoY%
(5.00)
---
Adanient
73
8.0
Apr 8 India
Exports YoY%
(5.66)
---
More Events on Pg4
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Deltacorp
66
(3.2)
Ttkprestig
4,256
(3.0)
Infratel
376
(2.7)
Sunasian
25
(2.0)
Bayercrop
3,749
(1.5)
As on March 30, 2016
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
March 31, 2016
Tata Steel intends to sell entire UK operations
Tata Steel has decided to sell the entire UK operations, after evaluating for many
months. The news comes as relief for share holders and investors as Tata steel UK
is reported losses at the EBITDA level. However given the negative outlook for the
sector the company will have to wait till it finds a buyer at the right valuation and
might need the support of the UK Govt. The UK Govt would also be concerned as
thousands of jobs are at stake.
The decision to acquire the UK business was a strategic move to diversify from a
geographic point of view. Ever since the acquisition the global steel market has
been under pressure and the debt of the company has ballooned due to lack of
profitability. Ability to exit the UK operations will help Tata Steel focus on the
Indian operations where demand seems to be picking up. However, the company
has not shown any intentions to sell its Netherland operations as it is still making
profit at EBITDA level.
Jolted by the decision, labour unions called for nationalisation and the UK
government authorities have assured nearly the 17,000 workers at the company
plants across the country that all options would be explored to safeguard their
interest. UK Business Minister Anna Soubry said the government was prepared to
look at all options to allow time for a buyer to save thousands of jobs. She
however added that there was a limit to what the government could do. Tata Steel
UK division (flats and long) has a capacity of 10.5MT and has churned volumes
between 7.4-7.6MT in FY14 and FY15.
At the CMP of Rs 328 the stock is trading at 0.8x its FY17 EV/Sales. While the
intent to sell the UK operations is positive, valuations remain a concern and with
trade unions in the fray, this could be a long drawn out process. With steel prices
showing no signs of any significant turnaround yet, we retain our NEUTRAL view
on the stock.
Economic and Political News
NITI Aayog to introduce model law on land leasing
India to grow at 7.4% in FY17: ADB
All Central Schemes on Track to be Linked to DBT from April 1
Corporate News
RInfra proposes 5.26% tariff increase for 2016-17
Kansai Nerolac sells Chennai land to Brigade & GIC Singapore for `550cr
United Bank of India, Oriental Bank of Commerce and Vijaya Bank to get
`1,000cr capital infusion from govt
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
March 31, 2016
Top Picks
Large Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
To outpace battery industry growth due to better technological
Amara Raja Batteries
15,201
890
1,040
16.9
products leading to market share gains in both the automotive
OEM and replacement segments.
Uptick in defense capex by government when coupled with
Bharat Electronics
29,038
1,210
1,414
16.9
BELs strong market positioning, indicate that good times are
ahead for BEL.
The stock is trading at attractive valuations and is factoring all
HCL Tech
1,15,785
821
1,038
26.4
the bad news.
Strong visibility for a robust 20% earnings trajectory, coupled
HDFC Bank
2,69,140
1,065
1,262
18.5
with high quality of earnings on account of high quality retail
business and strategic focus on highly rated corporates.
Back on the growth trend, expect a long term growth of 14%
Infosys
2,77,870
1,206
1,347
11.7
to be a US$20bn in FY2020.
LICHF continues to grow its retail loan book at a healthy pace
with improvement in asset quality. We expect the company to
LIC Housing Finance
24,597
487
592
21.4
post a healthy loan book which is likely to reflect in a strong
earnings growth.
Huge bid pipeline of re-development works at Delhi and other
NBCC
11,429
952
1,089
14.3
State Governments and opportunity from Smart City, positions
NBCC to report strong growth, going forward.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Mid Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well for
Cooling products business which is out pacing the market
Blue Star
3,362
374
439
17.4
growth. EMPPAC division's profitability to improve once
operating environment turns around.
Commencement of new projects, downtrend in the interest rate
IL&FS Transport
2,257
69
93
35.6
cycle, to lead to stock re-rating
Economic recovery to have favourable impact on advertising &
circulation revenue growth. Further, the acquisition of a radio
Jagran Prakashan
5,314
163
189
16.3
business (Radio City) would also boost the company's revenue
growth.
Speedier execution and speedier sales, strong revenue visibilty
Mahindra Lifespace
1,734
423
554
31.1
in short-to-long run, attractive valuations
Massive capacity expansion along with rail advantage at ICD
Navkar Corporation
2,519
177
265
50.0
as well CFS augurs well for the company
Earnings boost on back of stable material prices and
Radico Khaitan
1,272
96
156
63.2
favourable pricing environment. Valuation discount to peers
provides additional comfort
Strong brands and distribution network would boost growth
Siyaram Silk Mills
905
966
1,354
40.2
going ahead. Stock currently trades at an inexpensive
valuation.
Source: Company, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
March 31, 2016
Key Upcoming Events
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
Mar 30, 2016 2:30PM
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value
Mar F
(9.70)
(9.70)
Mar 31, 2016 6:00PM
US
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Mar 26
265.00
265.00
1:25PM
Germany
Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Mar
(10.00)
(6.00)
2:00PM
UK
GDP (YoY)
% Change
4Q F
1.90
1.90
Apr 1, 2016
1:25PM
Germany
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Mar F
50.40
50.40
2:00PM
UK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Mar
50.80
51.20
6:30AM
China
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Mar
49.00
49.40
6:00PM
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Mar
242.00
210.00
6:00PM
US
Unnemployment rate
%
Mar
4.90
4.90
Apr 5, 2016
1:25PM
Germany
PMI Services
Value
Mar F
55.50
--
11:00AM
India
RBI Reverse Repo rate
%
Apr 5
5.75
5.50
11:00AM
India
RBI Repo rate
%
Apr 5
6.75
6.50
11:00AM
India
RBI Cash Reserve ratio
%
Apr 5
4.00
4.00
Apr 8, 2016
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Mar
(5.00)
--
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Mar
(5.66)
--
2:00PM
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Feb
0.20
--
Apr 11, 2016
7:00AM
China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Mar
2.30
2.50
Apr 12, 2016
2:00PM
UK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Mar
0.30
--
5:30PM
India
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Feb
(1.50)
--
Apr 13, 2016
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Mar
(0.60)
--
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Mar
(25.40)
--
Apr 14, 2016
12:00PM
India
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
% Change
Mar
(0.91)
--
6:00PM
US
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Mar
(0.20)
--
2:30PM
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
%
Mar F
(0.20)
--
4:30PM
UK
BOE Announces rates
% Ratio
Apr 14
0.50
0.50
Apr 15, 2016
6:45PM
US
Industrial Production
%
Mar
(0.49)
--
7:30AM
China
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Mar
5.90
--
7:30AM
China
Real GDP (YoY)
% Change
1Q
6.80
--
Apr 19, 2016
6:00PM
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Mar
1,178.00
--
6:00PM
US
Building permits
Thousands
Mar
1,177.00
--
Apr 20, 2016
7:30PM
US
Existing home sales
Million
Mar
5.08
--
2:00PM
UK
Jobless claims change
% Change
Mar
(18.00)
--
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
March 31, 2016
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
9.0
8.3
12.0
9.9
7.8
7.7
10.0
8.0
7.5
7.6
7.3
8.0
6.3
6.7
6.6
6.7
7.0
6.4
6.0
4.2
4.3
3.7
5.8
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.5
6.0
2.0
5.0
4.5
-
4.0
(2.0)
(1.2)
(1.5)
(4.0)
3.0
(3.4)
(6.0)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
56.0
5.6
5.7
6.0
5.4
5.4
5.3
5.2
4.9
5.0
5.0
54.0
5.0
4.4
3.7
3.7
52.0
4.0
50.0
3.0
2.0
48.0
1.0
46.0
-
44.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
0.0
8.00
(5.0)
7.00
(10.0)
(15.0)
6.00
(20.0)
5.00
(25.0)
4.00
(30.0)
(35.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
March 31, 2016
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
6.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
4.5
4.0
2.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
1.4
2.0
0.6
0.7
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(4.1)
(6.0)
(5.9)
(8.0)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2015 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
7.3
6.8
6.0
4.7
4.7
4.0
2.5
2.5
2.6
1.4
1.5
2.0
1.2
0.6
-
(2.0)
(3.0)
(4.0)
(3.8)
(6.0)
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
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Stock Watch
March 31, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis
Neutral
173
-
3,364
2,097
2,415
14.4
14.4
9.5
11.0
18.2
15.7
3.6
3.1
21.1
21.3
1.6
1.4
United Phosphorus
Neutral
472
-
20,241
12,500
14,375
18.3
18.3
29.8
35.9
15.9
13.2
2.9
2.5
20.0
20.3
1.7
1.4
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Ashok Leyland
Neutral
108
-
30,764
17,995
21,544
11.4
11.6
3.4
4.7
31.8
23.0
5.6
5.1
17.7
22.2
1.7
1.4
Bajaj Auto
Accumulate
2,417
2,585
69,946
22,709
25,860
20.9
20.1
129.0
143.6
18.7
16.8
5.7
5.0
30.7
29.4
2.6
2.3
Bharat Forge
Neutral
889
-
20,698
7,351
8,318
19.9
19.7
31.2
36.5
28.5
24.4
5.1
4.3
19.3
19.2
3.0
2.6
Eicher Motors
Accumulate
18,737
20,044
50,891
15,556
16,747
15.5
17.3
464.8
597.5
40.3
31.4
14.7
10.8
36.2
34.3
3.2
2.9
Gabriel India
Accumulate
91
101
1,307
1,415
1,544
8.7
9.0
4.6
5.4
19.8
16.9
3.6
3.2
18.1
18.9
0.9
0.8
Hero Motocorp
Neutral
2,922
-
58,358
28,244
30,532
15.5
15.9
156.7
168.5
18.7
17.3
7.4
6.3
39.9
36.4
1.9
1.7
Jamna Auto Industries Accumulate
140
160
1,118
1,281
1,473
11.2
11.5
7.6
9.2
18.4
15.2
4.7
3.8
25.4
25.2
0.9
0.8
L G Balakrishnan & Bros Neutral
440
-
691
1,254
1,394
11.6
11.8
35.9
41.7
12.3
10.6
1.7
1.5
13.5
13.8
0.7
0.6
Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate
1,220
1,364
75,786
38,416
42,904
13.7
13.9
54.8
63.4
22.3
19.3
3.4
3.1
15.4
15.8
1.6
1.4
Maruti
Neutral
3,728
-
112,615
57,865
68,104
16.4
16.7
176.3
225.5
21.2
16.5
4.1
3.5
19.4
21.2
1.7
1.4
Minda Industries
Accumulate
955
1,047
1,514
2,523
2,890
8.7
9.0
55.0
65.4
17.4
14.6
3.4
2.7
19.3
18.7
0.7
0.6
Motherson Sumi
Buy
256
313
33,855
39,343
45,100
8.8
9.1
10.1
12.5
25.3
20.5
8.0
6.3
35.3
34.4
0.9
0.8
Rane Brake Lining
Buy
370
465
293
454
511
11.5
12.0
25.2
31.0
14.7
11.9
2.2
2.0
14.9
16.6
0.8
0.7
Setco Automotive
Neutral
29
-
388
594
741
12.7
13.7
1.7
3.2
17.1
9.1
1.8
1.6
10.4
16.9
1.1
0.9
Tata Motors
Neutral
389
-
112,283
259,686
273,957
13.0
13.4
25.9
29.5
15.0
13.2
2.0
1.7
8.0
9.0
0.6
0.6
TVS Motor
Neutral
322
-
15,274
11,263
13,122
6.9
8.5
9.2
15.0
35.0
21.4
8.0
6.3
22.7
29.6
1.3
1.1
Amara Raja Batteries
Buy
890
1,040
15,201
4,892
5,871
17.4
17.6
28.8
37.1
30.9
24.0
7.2
5.8
23.4
24.1
3.1
2.5
Exide Industries
Buy
138
162
11,751
6,950
7,784
14.4
14.8
6.6
7.3
21.0
18.9
2.6
2.4
12.6
12.8
1.4
1.3
Apollo Tyres
Accumulate
173
183
8,793
12,056
12,714
17.2
16.4
23.0
20.3
7.5
8.5
1.3
1.2
17.7
13.6
0.8
0.8
Ceat
Accumulate
1,062
1,119
4,294
6,041
6,597
14.1
13.7
99.5
111.9
10.7
9.5
2.1
1.8
19.6
18.5
0.9
0.7
JK Tyres
Neutral
84
-
1,911
7,446
7,669
15.2
14.0
19.6
18.4
4.3
4.6
1.1
0.9
25.2
19.5
0.7
0.6
Swaraj Engines
Accumulate
862
919
1,070
552
630
14.2
14.7
44.6
54.1
19.3
15.9
4.5
4.1
23.2
25.6
1.8
1.5
Subros
Neutral
89
-
535
1,293
1,527
11.8
11.9
4.2
6.7
21.2
13.3
1.6
1.5
7.7
11.5
0.7
0.6
Indag Rubber
Neutral
162
-
426
283
329
17.0
17.2
13.0
15.4
12.5
10.5
2.7
2.3
21.8
21.6
1.2
1.0
Capital Goods
ACE
Neutral
39
-
381
660
839
4.7
8.2
1.0
3.9
38.6
9.9
1.2
1.1
3.2
11.3
0.7
0.6
BEML
Accumulate
1,031
1,157
4,294
3,277
4,006
6.0
8.9
36.2
64.3
28.5
16.0
2.0
1.8
5.7
11.7
1.4
1.1
Bharat Electronics
Buy
1,210
1,414
29,038
7,737
8,634
16.8
17.2
54.0
61.5
22.4
19.7
3.2
2.8
39.3
45.6
2.9
2.4
www.angelbroking.com
Stock Watch
March 31, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Capital Goods
Voltas
Buy
273
353
9,045
5,363
5,963
8.0
9.1
11.0
13.8
24.9
19.8
3.8
3.3
16.2
17.9
1.6
1.5
BGR Energy
Neutral
110
-
791
3,615
3,181
9.5
9.4
16.7
12.4
6.6
8.8
0.6
0.6
10.0
7.0
0.6
0.8
BHEL
Neutral
115
-
28,111
33,722
35,272
10.8
11.7
10.5
14.2
10.9
8.1
0.8
0.8
7.0
9.0
0.9
0.9
Blue Star
Buy
374
439
3,362
3,548
3,977
6.3
6.9
13.7
17.2
27.3
21.8
6.9
4.5
26.1
25.4
1.0
0.9
Crompton Greaves
Neutral
49
-
3,052
13,484
14,687
4.9
6.2
4.5
7.1
10.8
6.9
0.8
0.7
7.2
10.8
0.4
0.3
Greaves Cotton
Neutral
121
-
2,965
1,655
1,755
16.6
16.8
7.4
7.8
16.4
15.6
3.3
3.1
21.1
20.6
1.7
1.6
Inox Wind
Buy
262
458
5,818
4,980
5,943
17.0
17.5
26.6
31.6
9.9
8.3
3.0
2.2
35.0
30.0
1.3
1.1
KEC International
Neutral
121
-
3,102
8,791
9,716
6.1
6.8
5.4
8.2
22.3
14.7
2.2
2.0
10.0
14.0
0.6
0.5
Thermax
Neutral
749
-
8,929
6,413
7,525
7.4
8.5
30.5
39.3
24.6
19.1
3.8
3.3
15.0
17.0
1.4
1.1
VATech Wabag
Neutral
524
-
2,856
2,722
3,336
7.9
8.1
19.5
24.6
26.9
21.3
2.8
2.5
11.1
12.4
1.1
0.9
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,383
-
25,961
13,151
14,757
16.4
18.3
63.9
83.4
21.6
16.6
2.8
2.6
13.3
16.1
1.8
1.5
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
231
-
35,911
11,564
12,556
19.4
20.7
8.9
10.1
26.0
22.9
3.3
3.1
12.8
13.8
2.8
2.5
HeidelbergCement
Neutral
78
-
1,773
1,772
1,926
13.3
15.4
1.0
3.0
78.3
26.1
2.0
1.8
2.6
7.9
1.6
1.4
India Cements
Neutral
86
-
2,656
4,216
4,840
18.0
19.5
4.0
9.9
21.6
8.7
0.9
0.8
4.0
9.5
1.0
0.8
JK Cement
Neutral
646
-
4,519
3,661
4,742
10.1
15.8
7.5
28.5
86.2
22.7
2.6
2.3
7.5
22.9
1.7
1.3
J K Lakshmi Cement
Neutral
335
-
3,940
2,947
3,616
16.7
19.9
11.5
27.2
29.1
12.3
2.8
2.4
9.8
20.8
1.7
1.4
Mangalam Cements
Neutral
223
-
596
1,053
1,347
10.5
13.3
8.4
26.0
26.6
8.6
1.1
1.0
4.3
12.5
0.9
0.7
Orient Cement
Neutral
150
-
3,082
1,854
2,524
21.2
22.2
7.7
11.1
19.5
13.6
2.8
2.4
13.3
15.7
2.4
1.7
Ramco Cements
Neutral
407
-
9,679
4,036
4,545
20.8
21.3
15.1
18.8
26.9
21.6
3.3
2.9
12.9
14.3
2.9
2.5
Shree Cement^
Neutral
12,255
-
42,692
7,150
8,742
26.7
28.6
228.0
345.5
53.7
35.5
7.9
6.6
15.7
20.3
5.7
4.6
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
3,192
-
87,600
24,669
29,265
18.2
20.6
82.0
120.0
38.9
26.6
4.2
3.7
11.3
14.7
3.6
3.1
Construction
ITNL
Buy
69
93
2,257
7,360
8,825
34.0
35.9
7.0
9.0
9.8
7.6
0.3
0.3
3.2
3.7
3.7
3.6
KNR Constructions
Buy
509
603
1,430
937
1,470
14.3
14.0
44.2
38.6
11.5
13.2
2.3
2.0
15.4
15.4
1.6
1.0
Larsen & Toubro
Accumulate
1,227
1,310
114,269
58,870
65,708
8.3
10.3
42.0
53.0
29.2
23.2
2.0
1.8
8.8
11.2
2.2
2.0
Gujarat Pipavav Port
Neutral
172
-
8,306
629
684
51.0
52.2
6.4
5.9
26.8
29.1
3.5
3.3
15.9
12.7
12.9
11.6
MBL Infrastructures
Buy
155
285
641
2,313
2,797
12.2
14.6
19.0
20.0
8.1
7.7
0.9
0.8
11.3
10.6
1.0
0.9
Nagarjuna Const.
Neutral
76
-
4,206
7,892
8,842
8.8
9.1
3.0
5.3
25.2
14.3
1.3
1.2
5.0
8.5
0.8
0.7
PNC Infratech
Accumulate
505
558
2,593
1,873
2,288
13.2
13.5
24.0
32.0
21.1
15.8
2.1
1.8
12.1
12.3
1.5
1.2
Simplex Infra
Neutral
250
-
1,239
5,955
6,829
10.3
10.5
16.0
31.0
15.7
8.1
0.8
0.8
5.3
9.9
0.7
0.6
www.angelbroking.com
Stock Watch
March 31, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Construction
Power Mech Projects
Neutral
569
-
837
1,539
1,801
12.8
12.7
59.0
72.1
9.6
7.9
1.5
1.2
18.6
16.8
0.6
0.5
Sadbhav Engineering
Neutral
291
-
4,992
3,481
4,219
10.7
10.8
8.2
11.7
35.5
24.9
3.4
3.0
10.3
13.5
1.7
1.4
NBCC
Accumulate
952
1,089
11,429
5,816
7,382
6.9
7.7
29.6
39.8
32.2
23.9
5.8
4.6
24.1
26.7
1.7
1.3
MEP Infra
Neutral
39
-
628
1,956
1,876
28.1
30.5
1.3
3.0
29.7
12.9
6.2
4.2
21.2
32.8
1.7
1.7
SIPL
Neutral
97
-
3,403
675
1,042
62.4
64.7
-
-
3.6
4.1
-
-
16.7
11.3
Engineers India
Neutral
167
-
5,618
1,667
1,725
13.5
16.0
9.7
11.4
17.2
14.6
2.0
2.0
11.7
13.4
2.2
2.2
Financials
Allahabad Bank
Neutral
53
-
3,210
8,569
9,392
2.8
2.9
16.3
27.5
3.3
1.9
0.3
0.2
7.6
11.9
-
-
Axis Bank
Accumulate
443
494
105,621
26,473
31,527
3.5
3.6
35.7
43.5
12.4
10.2
2.1
1.8
17.9
18.9
-
-
Bank of Baroda
Neutral
147
-
33,871
18,485
21,025
1.9
2.0
13.5
21.1
10.9
7.0
0.9
0.8
7.3
10.6
-
-
Bank of India
Neutral
97
-
7,835
15,972
17,271
1.9
2.0
15.3
33.4
6.3
2.9
0.3
0.3
3.6
7.6
-
-
Canara Bank
Neutral
187
-
10,165
15,441
16,945
2.0
2.1
46.6
70.4
4.0
2.7
0.4
0.3
8.0
11.2
-
-
Dena Bank
Neutral
29
-
1,858
3,440
3,840
2.1
2.3
7.3
10.0
4.0
2.9
0.3
0.2
6.1
7.9
-
-
Federal Bank
Neutral
47
-
8,005
3,477
3,999
3.0
3.0
5.0
6.2
9.3
7.5
0.9
0.9
10.6
11.9
-
-
HDFC
Neutral
1,116
-
176,239
10,358
11,852
3.3
3.3
41.1
47.0
27.2
23.7
5.2
4.7
24.7
24.9
-
-
HDFC Bank
Buy
1,065
1,262
269,140
38,309
47,302
4.3
4.3
49.3
61.1
21.6
17.4
3.7
3.2
18.5
19.7
-
-
ICICI Bank
Accumulate
237
254
138,059
34,279
39,262
3.3
3.3
21.0
24.4
11.3
9.7
1.9
1.6
14.4
14.7
-
-
IDBI Bank
Neutral
69
-
13,196
9,625
10,455
1.8
1.8
8.5
14.2
8.2
4.9
0.5
0.5
5.9
9.3
-
-
Indian Bank
Neutral
104
-
4,978
6,160
6,858
2.5
2.5
24.5
29.8
4.2
3.5
0.3
0.3
7.7
8.6
-
-
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
487
592
24,597
3,101
3,745
2.5
2.5
33.0
40.2
14.8
12.1
2.8
2.4
19.7
20.5
-
-
Oriental Bank
Neutral
89
-
2,672
7,643
8,373
2.4
2.4
37.2
45.4
2.4
2.0
0.2
0.2
8.2
9.4
-
-
Punjab Natl.Bank
Neutral
86
-
16,799
23,638
26,557
2.8
2.8
17.9
27.2
4.8
3.1
0.5
0.4
8.5
12.0
-
-
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
17
-
2,350
1,965
2,185
2.5
2.5
2.5
3.3
7.0
5.3
0.7
0.6
9.5
11.7
-
-
St Bk of India
Neutral
198
-
153,354
79,958
86,061
2.6
2.6
13.4
20.7
14.8
9.6
1.2
1.1
11.5
12.8
-
-
Union Bank
Neutral
129
-
8,871
12,646
14,129
2.3
2.4
31.0
39.1
4.2
3.3
0.4
0.4
9.8
11.4
-
-
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
31
-
2,680
3,536
3,827
1.9
1.9
5.5
6.7
5.6
4.7
0.5
0.4
7.8
8.8
-
-
Yes Bank
Neutral
866
-
36,406
7,190
9,011
3.2
3.3
58.2
69.7
14.9
12.4
2.7
2.3
19.2
19.6
-
-
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
881
-
84,544
16,553
19,160
16.0
16.2
17.7
21.5
49.9
41.0
13.2
11.9
29.4
31.2
4.9
4.3
Britannia
Neutral
2,636
-
31,630
8,481
9,795
14.0
14.1
65.5
78.3
40.3
33.7
19.1
15.6
38.3
41.2
3.6
3.1
Colgate
Neutral
821
-
22,321
4,836
5,490
19.5
19.7
48.5
53.2
16.9
15.4
12.4
10.8
99.8
97.5
4.5
4.0
www.angelbroking.com
Stock Watch
March 31, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FMCG
Dabur India
Accumulate
247
267
43,389
9,370
10,265
17.1
17.2
7.3
8.1
33.6
30.5
10.2
8.3
33.7
30.6
4.5
4.1
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
6,027
-
25,347
4,919
5,742
17.2
17.4
168.3
191.2
35.8
31.5
10.2
8.7
28.8
28.9
4.7
4.0
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
1,385
-
47,169
10,168
12,886
16.1
16.1
32.1
38.4
43.2
36.1
8.8
8.1
19.7
21.0
4.7
3.7
HUL
Neutral
863
-
186,666
34,940
38,957
17.5
17.7
20.8
24.7
41.5
34.9
46.1
36.9
110.5
114.2
5.1
4.6
ITC
Accumulate
327
359
262,902
36,804
38,776
37.9
37.9
12.2
12.9
26.8
25.3
7.4
6.6
27.7
25.8
6.7
6.4
Marico
Neutral
247
-
31,899
6,551
7,766
15.7
16.0
10.4
12.5
23.8
19.8
6.9
5.8
33.2
32.4
4.8
4.0
Nestle*
Buy
5,476
6,646
52,801
11,291
12,847
22.2
22.3
158.9
184.6
34.5
29.7
18.0
16.2
55.0
57.3
4.5
3.9
Tata Global
Buy
121
144
7,662
8,635
9,072
9.8
9.9
6.5
7.6
18.7
16.0
1.9
1.8
6.8
7.4
0.8
0.8
IT
HCL Tech^
Buy
821
1,038
115,785
42,038
47,503
21.2
21.5
51.5
57.7
15.9
14.2
3.5
2.7
21.5
18.8
2.4
1.9
Infosys
Accumulate
1,206
1,347
277,870
61,850
69,981
27.5
27.5
59.4
65.7
20.3
18.4
4.3
3.7
21.2
20.1
3.8
3.2
TCS
Accumulate
2,488
2,854
490,311
108,487
122,590
28.3
28.5
122.8
138.4
20.3
18.0
7.7
7.0
38.0
38.9
4.1
3.6
Tech Mahindra
Accumulate
473
530
45,762
26,524
29,177
16.2
17.0
28.8
33.6
16.4
14.1
3.2
2.7
19.3
19.1
1.5
1.3
Wipro
Buy
561
680
138,653
50,808
56,189
23.7
23.8
37.3
40.7
15.1
13.8
2.9
2.6
19.2
17.7
2.2
1.8
Media
D B Corp
Buy
304
356
5,593
2,241
2,495
27.8
27.9
21.8
25.6
14.0
11.9
3.7
3.2
26.7
28.5
2.4
2.2
HT Media
Neutral
77
-
1,788
2,495
2,603
11.2
11.2
7.3
8.6
10.5
8.9
0.8
0.8
7.4
8.1
0.2
0.2
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
163
189
5,314
2,170
2,355
27.2
26.2
8.9
9.9
18.3
16.4
3.8
3.4
20.9
20.5
2.3
2.2
Sun TV Network
Neutral
370
-
14,591
2,779
3,196
70.2
70.5
22.8
27.3
16.2
13.6
4.0
3.6
26.7
28.3
5.0
4.3
Hindustan Media
Neutral
247
-
1,810
920
1,031
20.0
20.0
19.2
20.9
12.8
11.8
2.1
1.8
16.4
15.3
1.5
1.3
Ventures
Metals & Mining
Coal India
Buy
296
380
187,249
76,167
84,130
19.9
22.3
22.4
25.8
13.2
11.5
4.8
4.7
35.5
41.0
1.8
1.6
Hind. Zinc
Neutral
175
-
74,006
14,641
14,026
50.4
50.4
17.7
16.0
9.9
11.0
1.5
1.4
16.2
13.2
2.7
2.5
Hindalco
Neutral
88
-
18,182
104,356
111,186
8.7
9.5
6.7
11.1
13.1
8.0
0.5
0.5
3.5
5.9
0.7
0.6
JSW Steel
Neutral
1,273
-
30,776
42,308
45,147
16.4
20.7
(10.3)
49.5
25.7
1.4
1.4
(1.0)
5.6
1.8
1.7
NMDC
Neutral
100
-
39,667
8,237
10,893
46.6
44.5
10.0
11.7
10.1
8.6
1.1
1.0
12.5
13.0
4.6
3.5
SAIL
Neutral
44
-
17,966
45,915
53,954
7.2
10.5
1.5
4.4
28.9
9.9
0.4
0.4
2.3
4.1
1.0
0.9
Vedanta
Neutral
92
-
27,171
71,445
81,910
26.2
26.3
12.9
19.2
7.1
4.8
0.5
0.4
7.2
8.9
0.8
0.6
Tata Steel
Neutral
324
-
31,506
126,760
137,307
8.9
11.3
6.4
23.1
51.0
14.1
1.0
1.0
2.0
7.1
0.8
0.8
Oil & Gas
Cairn India
Neutral
157
-
29,417
11,323
12,490
49.4
51.0
20.7
20.7
7.6
7.6
0.5
0.5
6.4
6.1
1.7
1.0
GAIL
Neutral
360
-
45,633
64,856
70,933
9.1
9.6
24.0
28.9
15.0
12.5
1.3
1.2
8.8
9.6
0.9
0.8
ONGC
Neutral
218
-
186,381
154,564
167,321
36.8
37.4
28.6
32.5
7.6
6.7
1.0
0.9
12.7
13.5
1.4
1.3
www.angelbroking.com
Stock Watch
March 31, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Oil & Gas
Petronet LNG
Neutral
247
-
18,518
29,691
31,188
5.8
6.2
12.8
13.4
19.3
18.4
2.9
2.6
15.8
14.8
0.7
0.7
Indian Oil Corp
Accumulate
400
455
97,118
359,607
402,760
5.9
6.1
42.5
48.7
9.4
8.2
1.3
1.1
14.1
14.4
0.4
0.3
Reliance Industries
Accumulate
1,045
1,150
338,559
304,775
344,392
12.6
13.4
91.3
102.6
11.5
10.2
1.3
1.2
11.8
12.0
1.0
0.9
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
605
-
11,397
3,274
3,802
26.9
19.4
35.0
28.7
17.3
21.1
7.7
5.8
55.6
31.2
3.5
2.9
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
742
856
43,402
14,923
17,162
22.0
23.0
35.7
42.8
20.8
17.3
6.1
4.6
34.0
30.2
3.3
2.8
Aventis*
Neutral
4,059
-
9,348
2,082
2,371
17.4
20.8
118.2
151.5
34.3
26.8
5.0
4.0
19.9
25.5
4.2
3.5
Cadila Healthcare
Accumulate
320
352
32,714
10,224
11,840
21.0
22.0
14.6
17.6
21.9
18.2
6.0
4.7
30.8
29.0
3.3
2.7
Cipla
Buy
512
605
41,141
13,979
16,447
20.2
18.6
25.7
27.5
19.9
18.6
3.3
2.8
17.6
16.1
2.9
2.4
Dr Reddy's
Buy
3,013
3,933
51,386
16,838
19,575
25.0
23.1
167.5
178.8
18.0
16.9
3.8
3.2
23.1
20.4
3.0
2.5
Dishman Pharma
Neutral
338
-
2,729
1,733
1,906
21.5
21.5
17.0
19.9
19.9
17.0
2.0
1.8
10.5
11.2
2.1
1.8
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
3,737
-
31,653
2,870
3,158
20.0
22.1
59.5
68.3
62.8
54.7
18.5
19.0
28.5
34.3
10.5
9.6
Indoco Remedies
Neutral
280
-
2,581
1,033
1,199
15.9
18.2
9.4
13.6
29.8
20.6
4.4
3.8
15.7
19.7
2.6
2.2
Ipca labs
Buy
590
900
7,443
3,363
3,909
12.9
18.6
13.4
28.0
44.0
21.1
3.2
2.8
7.4
14.0
2.5
2.2
Lupin
Accumulate
1,475
1,560
66,438
13,092
16,561
25.0
27.0
50.4
68.3
29.3
21.6
6.0
4.8
22.8
24.7
4.8
3.7
Sun Pharma
Buy
812
950
195,325
28,163
32,610
25.8
30.7
17.4
26.9
46.6
30.2
4.4
3.8
13.0
16.6
6.4
5.3
Power
Tata Power
Neutral
63
-
16,945
35,923
37,402
22.6
22.8
4.1
5.2
15.5
12.2
1.2
1.1
7.5
9.3
1.4
1.3
NTPC
Accumulate
130
146
106,985
87,271
99,297
23.5
23.5
11.8
13.3
11.0
9.8
1.2
1.2
11.5
12.2
2.3
2.0
Power Grid
Buy
140
170
73,111
20,702
23,361
86.7
86.4
12.1
13.2
11.6
10.6
1.7
1.5
15.6
15.1
8.5
7.9
Real Estate
MLIFE
Buy
423
554
1,734
697
1,011
14.9
19.3
13.8
20.1
30.6
21.0
1.1
1.1
3.8
5.3
3.8
2.6
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
354
-
141,468
101,748
109,191
32.1
31.7
12.0
12.5
29.5
28.3
2.0
1.9
6.9
6.7
2.0
1.8
Idea Cellular
Neutral
109
-
39,282
34,282
36,941
32.0
31.5
5.9
6.2
18.5
17.6
1.7
1.5
9.9
9.3
1.7
1.6
zOthers
Abbott India
Neutral
4,750
-
10,094
2,715
3,153
14.5
14.1
134.3
152.2
35.4
31.2
8.8
7.3
27.4
25.6
3.4
2.9
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
192
237
1,935
4,719
5,287
5.2
5.8
8.6
12.7
22.4
15.1
2.6
2.2
11.4
14.8
0.4
0.4
Finolex Cables
Neutral
288
-
4,404
2,520
2,883
12.2
12.0
12.7
14.2
22.7
20.3
3.1
2.7
13.6
13.5
1.5
1.3
Goodyear India*
Buy
478
582
1,103
1,800
1,600
11.7
11.5
58.7
52.9
8.1
9.0
1.8
1.6
24.6
18.7
0.4
0.4
Hitachi
Neutral
1,173
-
3,189
1,779
2,081
7.8
8.8
21.8
33.4
53.8
35.1
8.7
7.0
17.4
22.1
1.9
1.6
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
283
-
5,122
1,620
1,847
11.5
11.5
7.3
8.5
38.8
33.4
5.0
4.6
13.3
14.4
3.0
2.6
MRF
Buy
37,721
45,575
15,998
20,316
14,488
21.4
21.1
5,488.0
3,798.0
6.9
9.9
2.4
1.9
41.1
21.2
0.7
1.0
Page Industries
Neutral
11,306
-
12,611
1,929
2,450
19.8
20.1
229.9
299.0
49.2
37.8
21.7
15.1
52.1
47.1
6.6
5.1
www.angelbroking.com
Stock Watch
March 31, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
zOthers
Relaxo Footwears
Neutral
365
-
4,381
1,767
2,152
12.3
12.5
19.3
25.1
19.0
14.6
4.7
3.6
27.7
27.8
2.5
2.1
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
966
1,354
905
1,636
1,815
11.5
11.5
89.9
104.1
10.7
9.3
1.8
1.5
17.9
17.8
0.7
0.6
Styrolution ABS India* Neutral
573
-
1,007
1,271
1,440
8.6
9.2
32.0
41.1
17.9
14.0
1.8
1.6
10.7
12.4
0.8
0.7
TVS Srichakra
Buy
2,303
3,217
1,764
2,035
2,252
15.9
15.3
248.6
268.1
9.3
8.6
4.0
2.9
43.6
33.9
0.9
0.8
HSIL
Accumulate
278
302
2,011
2,123
2,384
16.1
16.5
15.0
18.9
18.5
14.7
1.4
1.3
8.0
9.4
1.3
1.1
Kirloskar Engines India
Neutral
209
-
3,025
2,403
2,554
8.6
9.9
9.2
10.5
22.8
19.9
2.2
2.1
9.7
10.7
0.9
0.8
Ltd
M M Forgings
Buy
445
614
537
511
615
21.7
21.6
43.1
55.8
10.3
8.0
1.9
1.5
19.9
21.2
1.3
1.0
Banco Products (India) Neutral
112
-
804
1,208
1,353
11.0
12.3
10.8
14.5
10.4
7.8
1.2
1.1
11.9
14.5
0.6
0.5
Competent Automobiles Neutral
135
-
83
1,040
1,137
3.2
3.1
25.7
28.0
5.2
4.8
0.8
0.7
15.0
14.3
0.1
0.1
Nilkamal
Neutral
1,109
-
1,656
1,871
2,031
10.7
10.5
63.2
69.8
17.6
15.9
2.9
2.5
17.6
16.6
0.9
0.8
Visaka Industries
Buy
103
144
163
1,086
1,197
9.9
10.3
21.5
28.8
4.8
3.6
0.5
0.4
9.6
11.6
0.4
0.3
Transport Corporation of
Neutral
282
-
2,148
2,830
3,350
8.8
9.0
14.4
18.3
19.7
15.4
3.0
2.6
15.4
17.1
0.9
0.8
India
Elecon Engineering
Neutral
55
-
603
1,359
1,482
10.3
13.7
0.8
3.9
68.9
14.2
1.1
1.1
1.6
7.8
0.8
0.7
Surya Roshni
Buy
144
201
632
2,992
3,223
8.1
8.4
14.7
18.3
9.8
7.9
0.9
0.8
9.7
11.0
0.5
0.5
MT Educare
Neutral
170
-
678
286
366
18.3
17.7
7.7
9.4
22.0
18.2
4.6
4.1
20.2
21.1
2.3
1.7
Radico Khaitan
Buy
96
156
1,272
1,517
1,635
12.7
13.4
5.8
7.1
16.4
13.4
1.4
1.3
8.6
9.6
1.3
1.2
Garware Wall Ropes
Buy
337
473
737
862
974
11.2
11.2
24.9
29.6
13.6
11.4
2.0
1.8
15.1
15.4
0.9
0.7
Wonderla Holidays
Neutral
383
-
2,162
206
308
44.0
43.6
9.0
12.9
42.5
29.7
5.8
5.3
13.7
17.8
10.4
6.9
Linc Pen & Plastics
Neutral
187
-
277
340
371
8.3
8.9
10.8
13.2
17.3
14.2
2.8
2.4
16.0
17.1
0.9
0.8
The Byke Hospitality
Neutral
157
-
630
222
287
20.5
20.5
5.6
7.6
27.9
20.8
5.3
4.3
18.9
20.8
2.9
2.2
Interglobe Aviation
Neutral
891
-
32,108
17,022
21,122
20.7
14.5
63.9
53.7
13.9
16.6
20.9
17.1
149.9
103.2
1.9
1.5
Coffee Day Enterprises
Neutral
225
-
4,635
2,692
2,964
17.0
18.6
-
4.7
-
47.5
2.8
2.6
0.2
5.5
2.1
2.0
Ltd
Navneet Education
Neutral
83
-
1,971
998
1,062
24.1
24.0
5.8
6.1
14.4
13.6
3.2
2.8
22.0
20.6
2.1
1.9
Navkar Corporation
Buy
177
265
2,519
365
436
38.3
37.5
5.6
5.9
31.3
30.1
2.0
1.8
6.3
6.1
7.7
6.6
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on March 30, 2016
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
March 31, 2016
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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