Market Outlook
September 30, 2015
Dealer’s Diary
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE Sensex
0.6
162
25,779
Indian markets are expected to open on a positive note tracking the SGX Nifty and
Nifty
0.6
48
7,843
the Asian cues.
MID CAP
0.4
44
10,617
The U.S. stocks closed mixed, attempting to stabilize after a sharp sell-off, as
SMALL CAP
(0.1)
(12)
10,904
commodities recovered slightly but biotech stocks failed to hold gains. The Dow
BSE HC
(0.9)
(157)
17,480
Jones industrial average and S&P 500 ended higher, while the Nasdaq closed
BSE PSU
0.3
20
6,614
lower. The major averages fluctuated between gains and losses throughout the day.
BANKEX
0.9
176
19,769
The European markets ended with mixed results, following yesterday's sharp decline.
AUTO
0.8
129
17,144
Mining stocks regained some ground, after weak Chinese economic data yesterday
METAL
(1.4)
(97)
6,611
sparked a drop in commodity prices. However, pharmaceutical stocks turned in a
OIL & GAS
(0.8)
(73)
8,536
weak performance, due to the weakness in U.S. pharma and biotech stocks.
BSE IT
0.4
43
11,372
Indian stocks shrugged off global growth worries to end notably higher after the
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) surprised markets with a 50 basis points cut in the repo
Dow Jones
0.3
47
16,049
rate, against market expectations of a 25 basis points cut, on the back of cooling
NASDAQ
(0.6)
(27)
4,517
inflation and the FOMC's decision on Sep 17 to leave interest rates unchanged. This
FTSE
(0.8)
(50)
5,909
marks the fourth repo rate cut by the RBI since January 2015.
Nikkei
(4.0)
(714)
16,931
(3.0)
(630)
20,557
Hang Seng
News & Result Analysis
Straits Times
(0.1)
(4)
2,788
Power Grid commissions first power transmission express highway
(2.0)
(63)
3,038
Shanghai Com
Hero Motocorp to launch two new scooters in the festive season
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
Indian ADR
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 25,707 / 7,820 levels. If NIFTY trades above
INFY
1.2
0.2
$18.1
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up
WIT
3.0
0.3
$12.0
to 26,126 - 26,474 / 7,950 - 8,056 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
IBN
1.3
0.1
$8.3
25,707 / 7,820 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct towards
HDB
3.4
1.9
$60.1
25,359 - 24,940 / 7,714 - 7,585 levels.
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Indices
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
Advances
1,223
665
SENSEX
24,940
25,359
25,707
26,126
26,474
Declines
1,385
803
NIFTY
7,585
7,714
7,820
7,950
8,056
Unchanged
107
101
Net Inflows (September 28, 2015)
Volumes (` cr)
` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
MTD
YTD
BSE
3,053
FII
3,259
3,937
(678)
(4,807)
1,18,953
NSE
20,484
MFs
1,734
1,566
168
6,106
76,754
FII Derivatives (September 29, 2015)
` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
Open Interest
Index Futures
2,536
3,056
(519)
17,274
Stock Futures
3,013
2,879
135
43,336
Gainers / Losers
Gainer
Loser
Company
Price (`)
chg (%)
Company
Price (`)
chg (%)
HDIL
73
9.8
BFUTILITIE
461
(5.6)
KTKBANK
451
6.3
VEDL
86
(5.4)
BAJFINANCE
5,109
6.0
INFRATEL
357
(5.3)
NCC
73
5.3
PMCFIN
1
(4.9)
CONCOR
1,391
5.3
NATIONALUM
35
(4.0)
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
September 30, 2015
Power Grid commissions first power transmission express
highway
The state owned Power Grid Corporation of India completed the construction and
started power supply in its first 'Power Transmission Express Highway' or the
longest HVDC power transmission corridor connecting northern states with north
eastern region. The corridor would facilitate to and fro power supply as per
seasonal demand and supply position.
The corridor would help transmission of 6,000 Mw of power. However, currently,
around 1,700 Mw of power flow is taking place. The 1,750 km HVDC line
traverses through 3 regions, 4 states and around 40 rivers. This massive line
consists of 7000 locations. Power Grid said that this high capacity transmission
link is the world's largest multi-terminal 800kV HVDC Project, which comprises of
3,000 Mw HVDC terminals each at Biswanath Chariyali & Alipurduar and a 6000
Mw terminal at Agra. The company is building two more such corridors connecting
Chhatisgarh with Haryana and Tamil Nadu respectively are under construction.
North Eastern Region together with Sikkim and Bhutan has a large hydro
generation potential to the tune of 65,000 MW. We currently have a Buy rating on
the stock.
Hero Motocorp to launch two new scooters in the festive season
Hero MotoCorp unveiled two scooters developed in-house on new platforms, as
the company expands its presence in the fast growing scooter segment. It will
launch “Maestro Edge” and “Duet” in the festive season starting October. The full-
metal-body 110cc Duet would be pitched directly against market leader Honda's
Activa. The Maestro Edge, also with a 110cc engine, will be launched across
markets starting October 13. The LX version will have a starting price of `49,500
before local levies and insurance in Delhi, while the VX variant will cost `50,700.
The market launch of the Duet will follow thereafter and the company hasn't
announced its price yet.
Hero currently has two scooters (Pleasure and the Maestro) which were developed
using Honda's technology, as the companies had such an agreement when they
split up in 2010. Hero’s current share in the scooters stands at 13% and the new
products would enable it to further gain market share. We currently have an
Accumulate rating on the stock.
Economic and Political News
India trumps China, US in wooing FDI worth $31 billion during H1 FY16:
Report
Revenue sharing for marginal fields will increase operators' risks: ICRA
Sebi opens registration for commodity brokers
Corporate News
Reliance Jio Raises `3,500 cr via Debentures
NMDC to set up a gold refinery in Tanzania next year
Renuka Sugar's Brazilian arm applies for bankruptcy protection
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
September 30, 2015
Top Picks
Large Cap
Market
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
Cap (` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Aurobindo
Pharma
44,043
Buy
754
872
15.6
Axis Bank
Financials
1,19,829
Buy
504
701
39.1
ICICI Bank
Financials
1,56,138
Buy
269
370
37.6
Infosys
IT
2,57,511
Buy
1,121
1,306
16.5
Capital
Inox Wind
7,689
Buy
347
505
45.7
Goods
LIC HFL
Financials
22,735
Buy
451
570
26.5
Power Grid
Power
67,174
Buy
128
170
32.4
TCS
IT
5,07,350
Buy
2,590
3,168
22.3
Tech Mahindra IT
54,966 Accumulate
571
646
13.1
Yes Bank
Financials
30,907
Buy
738
953
29.1
Sun Pharma Pharma
2,04,643 Accumulate
850
950
11.7
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Mid Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Bajaj Electricals
Others
2,508
Buy
249
341
37.2
Garware Wall
Others
715
Buy
327
390
19.4
MBL Infra
Construction
1,018
Buy
246
360
46.6
Minda Industries
Auto Ancillary
815
Buy
513
652
27.0
MT Educare
Others
510
Buy
128
169
32.0
Radico Khaitan
Others
1,111
Buy
84
112
34.1
Surya Roshni
Others
560
Buy
128
183
43.2
Tree House
Others
1,321
Buy
312
449
43.8
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
September 30, 2015
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
September 30, 2015
1:25PM
Germany Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Sep
(7.00)
(5.00)
2:00PM
UK
GDP (YoY)
% Change
2Q F
2.60
2.60
October 1, 2015
1:25PM
Germany PMI Manufacturing
Value
Sep F
52.50
52.50
6:00PM
US
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Sep 25
267.00
271.50
6:30AM
China
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Sep
49.70
49.70
2:00PM
UK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Sep
51.50
51.30
October 2, 2015
6:00PM
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Sep
173.00
202.00
6:00PM
US
Unnemployment rate
%
Sep
5.10
5.10
October 5, 2015
1:25PM
Germany PMI Services
Value
Sep F
54.30
--
October 7, 2015
2:00PM
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Aug
0.80
--
October 8, 2015
4:30PM
UK
BOE Announces rates
% Ratio
Oct 8
0.50
0.50
October 9, 2015
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Sep
(9.95)
--
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Sep
(20.66)
--
October 12, 2015
5:30PM
India
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Aug
4.20
--
October 13, 2015
2:00PM
UK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Sep
--
--
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Sep
(5.50)
--
October 14, 2015
2:00PM
UK
Jobless claims change
% Change
Sep
1.20
--
12:00PM
India
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
% Change
Sep
(4.95)
--
7:00AM
China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Sep
2.00
--
October 15, 2015
6:00PM
US
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Sep
(0.10)
--
October 16, 2015
6:45PM
US
Industrial Production
%
Sep
(0.38)
--
2:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
%
Sep F
0.10
--
October 19, 2015
7:30AM
China
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Sep
6.10
--
7:30AM
China
Real GDP (YoY)
% Change
3Q
7.00
--
October 20, 2015
6:00PM
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Sep
1,126.00
--
6:00PM
US
Building permits
Thousands
Sep
1,161.00
--
October 22, 2015
7:30PM
US
Existing home sales
Million
Sep
5.31
--
5:15PM
Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates
%
Oct 22
0.05
--
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
September 30, 2015
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
9.0
8.4
6.0
5.2
4.8
4.4
4.2
5.0
8.0
7.5
7.5
3.6
3.4
7.0
7.0
4.0
6.7
6.7
2.6
2.8
2.5
2.5
6.6
3.0
7.0
6.3
6.4
2.0
6.0
1.0
5.0
4.7
-
5.0
(1.0)
4.0
(2.0)
(3.0)
3.0
(2.7)
(4.0)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
5.6
6.0
5.4
5.3
5.4
54.0
5.2
5.0
4.9
4.6
5.0
4.3
52.0
3.7
3.7
4.0
3.3
50.0
3.0
2.0
48.0
1.0
46.0
-
44.0
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
30.0
9.00
20.0
8.00
10.0
7.00
0.0
6.00
(10.0)
5.00
(20.0)
4.00
(30.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
September 30, 2015
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
7.0
5.3
6.0
4.9
4.7
4.0
2.8
2.6
2.7
1.6
2.0
1.2
1.1
0.8
(4.6)
(2.6)
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(6.0)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2015 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
10.0
7.5
8.0
6.8
5.2
6.0
4.8
3.7
3.1
4.0
2.7
2.0
1.6
2.0
1.2
1.0
(3.8)
(1.0)
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(6.0)
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
September 30, 2015
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
44,132
(7.5)
(16.8)
(22.3)
Russia
Micex
1,631
(5.2)
(0.6)
13.7
India
Nifty
7,843
0.7
(5.7)
(3.4)
China
Shanghai Composite
3,038
3.8
(25.0)
31.2
South Africa
Top 40
44,159
1.2
(4.8)
(0.8)
Mexico
Mexbol
42,122
(3.1)
(6.5)
(6.2)
Indonesia
LQ45
697
(7.7)
(17.7)
(21.8)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,603
2.5
(6.6)
(12.9)
Thailand
SET 50
868
(2.9)
(13.1)
(17.2)
USA
Dow Jones
16,049
(3.6)
(8.8)
(5.8)
UK
FTSE
5,909
(4.6)
(9.4)
(9.9)
Japan
Nikkei
16,931
(4.9)
(18.5)
6.6
Germany
DAX
9,450
(8.2)
(15.5)
0.3
France
CAC
4,344
(7.1)
(11.0)
1.4
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
September 30, 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis
Neutral
218
-
4,244
2,075
2,394
14.4
14.4
9.5
11.0
23.0
19.8
4.6
4.0
21.1
21.3
2.1
1.8
United Phosphorus
Buy
441
510
18,921
13,698
15,752
17.6
17.6
32.1
38.5
13.8
11.5
2.7
2.2
21.4
21.3
1.5
1.2
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Ashok Leyland
Accumulate
91
97
25,798
18,186
21,529
10.8
11.2
3.3
4.5
27.5
20.1
4.7
4.3
17.3
21.6
1.4
1.1
Bajaj Auto
Accumulate
2,252
2,438
65,158
23,544
27,245
19.8
19.8
127.0
143.4
17.7
15.7
5.4
4.6
30.3
29.4
2.3
2.0
Eicher Motors
Buy
17,441
22,859
47,338
11,681
15,550
15.3
16.9
358.5
564.3
48.7
30.9
14.6
10.9
29.8
34.9
3.9
2.9
Hero Motocorp
Accumulate
2,332
2,672
46,561
28,500
32,764
14.1
14.3
146.9
167.0
15.9
14.0
6.0
5.1
37.8
36.5
1.5
1.2
L G Balakrishnan & Bros Neutral
445
-
699
1,254
1,394
11.6
11.8
35.9
41.7
12.4
10.7
1.7
1.5
13.5
13.8
0.7
0.6
Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate
1,252
1,383
77,745
38,337
43,069
13.0
13.4
52.9
63.5
23.7
19.7
3.5
3.1
15.0
15.9
1.7
1.4
Maruti
Neutral
4,675
-
141,215
58,102
68,587
16.7
16.9
182.0
225.5
25.7
20.7
5.1
4.4
19.9
21.0
2.2
1.8
Minda Industries
Buy
513
652
815
2,567
2,965
7.3
8.0
38.8
54.3
13.2
9.5
1.9
1.6
14.4
16.8
0.4
0.3
Rane Brake Lining
Buy
289
366
228
454
511
11.1
11.4
23.8
28.1
12.1
10.3
1.7
1.6
14.2
15.3
0.6
0.6
Setco Automotive
Neutral
231
-
618
594
741
12.7
13.7
8.4
15.8
27.5
14.6
2.9
2.5
10.4
16.9
1.5
1.2
Tata Motors
Neutral
289
-
83,339
264,038
297,882
13.8
13.9
34.5
38.9
8.4
7.4
1.4
1.2
17.6
16.8
0.5
0.5
TVS Motor
Neutral
230
-
10,941
11,702
13,713
6.8
7.7
10.1
14.5
22.8
15.9
5.6
4.5
24.5
28.3
0.9
0.8
Amara Raja Batteries
Neutral
1,014
-
17,318
5,101
6,224
17.8
17.6
31.1
39.2
32.6
25.9
8.1
6.4
24.8
24.8
3.4
2.7
Exide Industries
Neutral
153
-
12,984
7,363
8,247
13.7
14.5
6.6
7.7
23.1
19.8
2.9
2.7
12.6
13.3
1.5
1.3
Apollo Tyres
Neutral
182
-
9,282
12,576
12,978
16.8
16.1
22.3
19.9
8.2
9.2
1.4
1.2
17.2
13.4
0.8
0.9
Ceat
Neutral
1,262
-
5,105
6,041
6,597
14.3
14.2
101.5
116.6
12.4
10.8
2.5
2.1
20.0
19.1
1.0
0.9
JK Tyres
Neutral
101
-
2,293
7,446
7,669
15.2
14.0
19.6
18.4
5.2
5.5
1.3
1.1
25.2
19.5
0.7
0.6
Swaraj Engines
Neutral
871
-
1,082
593
677
14.5
14.8
51.2
60.8
17.0
14.3
4.0
3.6
23.3
24.8
1.7
1.4
Subros
Neutral
79
-
472
1,268
1,488
11.6
11.9
3.7
6.6
21.3
11.9
1.4
1.3
6.8
11.4
0.7
0.6
Indag Rubber
Neutral
172
-
452
283
329
17.0
17.2
13.0
15.4
13.3
11.2
2.9
2.4
21.8
21.6
1.3
1.1
Capital Goods
ACE
Neutral
36
-
359
660
839
4.7
8.2
1.0
3.9
36.3
9.3
1.1
1.0
3.2
11.3
0.7
0.6
BEML
Neutral
1,211
-
5,042
3,277
4,006
6.0
8.9
29.2
64.3
41.5
18.8
2.3
2.1
5.7
11.7
1.6
1.3
BGR Energy
Neutral
106
-
761
3,615
3,181
9.5
9.4
16.7
12.4
6.3
8.5
0.6
0.6
10.0
7.0
0.6
0.8
BHEL
Neutral
197
-
48,291
33,722
35,272
10.8
11.7
10.5
14.2
18.8
13.9
1.4
1.3
7.0
9.0
1.5
1.4
Blue Star
Buy
332
387
2,986
3,649
4,209
5.0
5.9
9.2
14.7
36.3
22.5
6.6
6.2
9.1
17.5
0.9
0.8
Crompton Greaves
Buy
170
204
10,673
13,484
14,687
4.9
6.2
4.5
7.1
37.8
24.0
2.7
2.5
7.2
10.8
0.9
0.8
Inox Wind
Buy
347
505
7,689
4,980
5,943
17.0
17.5
26.6
31.6
13.0
11.0
3.9
2.9
35.0
30.0
1.7
1.4
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
September 30, 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Capital Goods
KEC International
Neutral
139
-
3,572
8,791
9,716
6.1
6.8
5.4
8.2
25.7
17.0
2.6
2.4
10.0
14.0
0.6
0.6
Thermax
Neutral
864
-
10,296
6,413
7,525
7.4
8.5
30.5
39.3
28.3
22.0
4.4
3.8
15.0
17.0
1.6
1.3
Cement
ACC
Buy
1,329
1,548
24,950
11,856
14,092
14.5
17.8
47.6
76.1
27.9
17.5
2.9
2.6
10.6
15.7
2.0
1.6
Ambuja Cements
Accumulate
203
233
31,488
10,569
12,022
20.7
22.2
8.7
10.7
23.3
19.0
3.0
2.8
13.0
15.2
2.6
2.3
India Cements
Buy
77
112
2,373
4,716
5,133
15.9
16.9
3.7
7.5
20.9
10.3
0.8
0.7
3.8
7.3
0.8
0.7
JK Cement
Buy
649
767
4,537
4,056
4,748
14.5
17.0
22.6
41.1
28.7
15.8
2.6
2.3
9.3
15.3
1.6
1.3
J K Lakshmi Cement
Buy
368
430
4,333
2,947
3,616
16.7
19.9
11.5
27.2
32.0
13.5
3.0
2.6
9.8
20.8
1.9
1.5
Mangalam Cements
Neutral
219
-
585
1,053
1,347
10.5
13.3
8.4
26.0
26.1
8.4
1.1
1.0
4.3
12.5
0.9
0.7
Orient Cement
Buy
157
183
3,221
1,854
2,524
21.2
22.2
7.7
11.1
20.4
14.2
2.9
2.5
13.3
15.7
2.5
1.7
Ramco Cements
Accumulate
318
350
7,563
4,036
4,545
20.8
21.3
15.1
18.8
21.0
16.9
2.6
2.3
12.9
14.3
2.4
2.0
Shree Cement^
Neutral
11,170
-
38,914
7,150
8,742
26.7
28.6
228.0
345.5
49.0
32.3
7.2
6.1
15.7
20.3
5.2
4.2
UltraTech Cement
Buy
2,712
3,282
74,428
27,562
31,548
20.4
22.3
111.9
143.3
24.2
18.9
3.4
3.0
15.2
16.8
2.8
2.4
Construction
ITNL
Neutral
96
-
2,380
7,360
8,825
34.0
35.9
1.0
5.0
96.5
19.3
0.4
0.4
0.3
1.4
3.8
3.7
KNR Constructions
Neutral
553
-
1,554
915
1,479
14.3
13.9
20.3
37.2
27.2
14.9
2.5
2.2
9.6
15.6
1.8
1.2
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,448
2,013
134,783
68,920
82,446
10.9
11.5
57.0
73.0
25.4
19.8
2.3
2.2
13.6
15.5
2.2
1.8
Gujarat Pipavav Port
Neutral
180
-
8,683
721
784
53.1
53.6
8.2
9.1
21.9
19.7
3.5
2.9
20.0
18.3
11.6
10.3
MBL Infrastructures
Buy
246
360
1,018
2,313
2,797
12.2
14.6
19.0
20.0
12.9
12.3
1.4
1.2
11.3
10.6
1.2
1.0
Nagarjuna Const.
Neutral
73
-
4,064
7,892
8,842
8.3
9.1
2.4
5.3
30.5
13.8
1.2
1.1
4.2
8.6
0.8
0.6
PNC Infratech
Neutral
489
-
2,509
1,798
2,132
13.2
13.5
22.0
30.0
22.2
16.3
2.0
1.8
11.5
11.4
1.5
1.3
Simplex Infra
Neutral
273
-
1,349
6,241
7,008
10.4
10.7
20.0
36.0
13.6
7.6
1.1
1.0
6.8
11.1
0.7
0.6
Financials
Allahabad Bank
Neutral
77
-
4,420
8,438
9,521
2.8
2.8
21.9
27.0
3.5
2.9
0.4
0.3
10.2
11.5
-
-
Axis Bank
Buy
504
701
119,829
26,941
32,298
3.5
3.6
37.4
46.4
13.5
10.9
2.7
2.4
18.7
20.0
-
-
Bank of Baroda
Neutral
187
-
41,333
19,027
21,737
1.9
2.0
16.9
24.5
11.1
7.6
1.0
0.9
9.1
12.1
-
-
Bank of India
Neutral
138
-
9,166
16,438
18,706
1.9
2.0
19.2
40.9
7.2
3.4
0.4
0.4
4.5
9.1
-
-
Canara Bank
Neutral
282
-
14,505
15,491
17,269
2.0
2.0
61.6
70.9
4.6
4.0
0.5
0.5
10.5
11.1
-
-
Dena Bank
Neutral
40
-
2,231
3,498
3,977
2.1
2.3
7.8
10.7
5.1
3.7
0.4
0.3
6.5
8.4
-
-
Federal Bank
Neutral
65
-
11,065
3,527
4,135
3.0
3.1
5.2
6.7
12.4
9.6
1.3
1.2
10.8
12.7
-
-
HDFC
Neutral
1,214
-
191,457
10,883
12,799
3.5
3.4
43.0
50.6
28.3
24.0
5.6
5.1
25.9
26.7
-
-
HDFC Bank
Buy
1,064
1,255
268,036
38,059
46,851
4.4
4.5
50.0
62.7
21.3
17.0
3.7
3.2
18.8
20.2
-
-
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
September 30, 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Financials
ICICI Bank
Buy
269
370
156,138
35,810
41,871
3.4
3.5
22.0
26.2
12.2
10.3
2.1
1.8
15.0
15.6
-
-
IDBI Bank
Neutral
81
-
13,048
9,860
10,978
1.8
1.9
9.3
15.6
8.8
5.2
0.6
0.5
6.4
10.1
-
-
Indian Bank
Neutral
136
-
6,525
6,267
7,171
2.4
2.5
25.4
32.1
5.3
4.2
0.4
0.4
8.0
9.3
-
-
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
451
570
22,735
2,934
3,511
2.3
2.3
30.9
36.8
14.6
12.2
2.3
2.0
16.8
17.5
-
-
Oriental Bank
Neutral
133
-
3,994
7,730
8,595
2.4
2.5
38.8
47.4
3.4
2.8
0.3
0.3
8.6
9.8
-
-
Punjab Natl.Bank
Neutral
135
-
25,092
23,446
26,624
2.8
2.9
17.8
27.5
7.6
4.9
0.8
0.6
8.5
12.1
-
-
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
23
-
3,085
1,930
2,215
2.4
2.4
2.6
3.6
8.8
6.4
0.9
0.8
9.9
12.5
-
-
St Bk of India
Buy
242
307
183,102
83,847
96,307
2.8
2.8
20.1
25.1
12.0
9.6
1.3
1.2
11.5
13.1
-
-
Union Bank
Neutral
180
-
11,454
12,755
14,439
2.3
2.4
31.5
39.9
5.7
4.5
0.6
0.5
9.9
11.6
-
-
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
34
-
2,947
3,594
3,969
1.8
1.9
5.8
7.1
5.9
4.8
0.5
0.5
8.2
9.3
-
-
Yes Bank
Buy
738
953
30,907
7,204
9,078
3.2
3.2
57.8
69.5
12.8
10.6
2.3
1.9
19.6
22.6
-
-
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
805
-
77,239
16,553
19,160
16.0
16.2
17.7
21.5
45.6
37.5
12.1
10.9
29.4
31.2
4.5
3.9
Britannia
Neutral
2,964
-
35,562
8,065
9,395
9.6
10.2
47.2
65.5
62.8
45.3
20.9
19.7
38.3
41.2
4.3
3.7
Colgate
Neutral
943
-
25,639
4,836
5,490
19.5
19.7
48.5
53.2
19.4
17.7
14.3
12.4
99.8
97.5
5.2
4.6
Dabur India
Neutral
275
-
48,242
9,370
10,265
17.1
17.2
7.3
8.1
37.4
33.9
11.3
9.2
33.7
30.6
5.1
4.6
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
6,005
-
25,252
4,919
5,742
17.2
17.4
168.3
191.2
35.7
31.4
10.1
8.6
28.8
28.9
4.7
4.0
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
1,177
-
40,065
10,168
12,886
16.1
16.1
32.1
38.4
36.7
30.6
7.5
6.9
19.7
21.0
4.0
3.2
HUL
Neutral
786
-
170,014
34,940
38,957
17.5
17.7
20.8
24.7
37.8
31.8
42.0
33.6
110.5
114.2
4.7
4.2
ITC
Buy
320
409
257,129
41,068
45,068
37.8
37.4
13.9
15.9
23.0
20.2
7.7
6.8
34.1
33.8
5.9
5.3
Marico
Neutral
395
-
25,497
6,551
7,766
15.7
16.0
10.4
12.5
38.1
31.6
11.1
9.2
33.2
32.4
3.8
3.2
Nestle*
Accumulate
6,180
6,646
59,587
11,291
12,847
22.2
22.3
158.9
184.6
38.9
33.5
20.3
18.3
55.0
57.3
5.1
4.5
Tata Global
Accumulate
127
144
7,984
8,635
9,072
9.8
9.9
6.5
7.6
19.5
16.7
1.9
1.9
6.8
7.4
0.9
0.8
IT
HCL Tech^
Buy
953
1,132
134,047
42,038
47,503
23.5
23.5
56.4
62.9
16.9
15.2
3.9
3.0
23.2
19.8
2.8
2.3
Infosys
Buy
1,121
1,306
257,511
60,250
66,999
28.0
28.0
58.3
63.7
19.2
17.6
4.0
3.5
20.9
19.7
3.6
3.1
TCS
Buy
2,590
3,168
507,350
108,420
123,559
28.8
28.7
127.2
143.9
20.4
18.0
8.1
7.5
39.9
41.8
4.3
3.7
Tech Mahindra
Accumulate
571
646
54,966
25,566
28,890
16.0
17.0
26.3
31.9
21.7
17.9
3.9
3.3
17.9
18.6
1.9
1.6
Wipro
Buy
588
719
145,164
52,414
58,704
23.7
23.8
38.4
42.3
15.3
13.9
3.0
2.7
19.5
18.0
2.3
1.9
Media
D B Corp
Accumulate
316
356
5,798
2,241
2,495
27.8
27.9
21.8
25.6
14.5
12.3
3.8
3.3
26.7
28.5
2.5
2.3
HT Media
Neutral
81
-
1,881
2,495
2,603
11.2
11.2
7.3
8.6
11.1
9.4
0.9
0.8
7.4
8.1
0.3
0.2
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
September 30, 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Media
Jagran Prakashan
Accumulate
142
156
4,637
1,939
2,122
26.0
26.0
8.3
9.2
17.1
15.4
2.9
2.6
17.5
17.1
2.3
2.1
Sun TV Network
Neutral
359
-
14,136
2,779
3,196
70.2
70.5
22.8
27.3
15.7
13.1
3.9
3.5
26.7
28.3
4.8
4.2
Hindustan Media
Buy
229
292
1,678
920
1,031
20.0
20.0
19.2
20.9
11.9
11.0
2.0
1.7
16.4
15.3
1.4
1.2
Ventures
Metals & Mining
Coal India
Buy
315
400
198,713
72,015
78,415
21.2
21.5
21.7
25.3
14.5
12.5
4.9
4.8
33.1
39.1
2.0
1.9
Hind. Zinc
Neutral
135
-
57,021
15,258
16,495
44.2
45.6
17.6
19.2
7.7
7.0
1.2
1.1
15.9
15.3
1.4
1.0
Hindalco
Neutral
68
-
14,073
104,356
111,186
8.7
9.5
6.7
11.1
10.1
6.2
0.4
0.4
3.5
5.9
0.7
0.6
JSW Steel
Neutral
840
-
20,309
48,125
53,595
18.8
21.0
46.9
97.5
17.9
8.6
0.9
0.8
4.4
9.5
1.2
1.1
NMDC
Neutral
92
-
36,297
8,237
10,893
46.6
44.5
10.0
11.7
9.2
7.9
1.0
0.9
12.5
13.0
4.2
3.2
SAIL
Neutral
50
-
20,836
45,915
53,954
7.2
10.5
1.5
4.4
33.5
11.5
0.5
0.5
2.3
4.1
1.1
1.0
Vedanta
Neutral
86
-
25,556
71,445
81,910
26.2
26.3
12.9
19.2
6.7
4.5
0.5
0.4
7.2
8.9
0.8
0.6
Tata Steel
Neutral
201
-
19,555
136,805
149,228
11.3
11.9
26.4
36.8
7.6
5.5
0.6
0.6
6.0
8.0
0.7
0.6
Oil & Gas
Cairn India
Neutral
145
-
27,223
11,323
12,490
49.4
51.0
20.7
20.7
7.0
7.0
0.5
0.4
6.4
6.1
1.5
0.8
GAIL
Neutral
291
-
36,881
64,856
70,933
9.1
9.6
24.0
28.9
12.1
10.1
1.0
1.0
8.8
9.6
0.8
0.7
ONGC
Neutral
226
-
193,739
154,564
167,321
36.8
37.4
28.6
32.5
7.9
7.0
1.0
0.9
12.7
13.5
1.5
1.4
Petronet LNG
Buy
177
210
13,294
39,007
40,785
3.8
4.2
9.2
11.0
19.4
16.2
2.2
2.0
11.6
12.7
0.4
0.4
Indian Oil Corp
Buy
395
455
95,819
359,607
402,760
5.9
6.1
42.5
48.7
9.3
8.1
1.2
1.1
14.1
14.4
0.4
0.3
Reliance Industries
Accumulate
839
930
271,753
313,085
362,904
13.1
13.8
78.4
92.9
10.7
9.0
1.1
1.0
10.8
11.6
1.3
1.2
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
680
-
12,810
2,601
3,115
21.2
20.2
20.8
23.9
32.7
28.4
10.5
7.9
37.2
31.8
5.0
4.1
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
754
872
44,043
14,923
17,162
23.0
23.0
38.2
43.6
19.7
17.3
6.1
4.6
36.0
30.2
3.3
2.8
Aventis*
Neutral
4,105
-
9,454
2,156
2,455
15.1
16.8
109.7
133.9
37.4
30.7
5.1
4.2
18.4
22.5
4.1
3.4
Cadila Healthcare
Neutral
2,062
-
42,212
10,224
11,840
20.0
21.0
71.0
85.6
29.0
24.1
7.8
6.1
30.1
28.5
4.2
3.5
Cipla
Accumulate
636
671
51,110
14,359
16,884
21.3
19.7
28.4
30.5
22.4
20.9
4.0
3.4
19.3
17.5
3.5
2.9
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
4,075
-
69,486
18,213
21,214
22.6
22.7
163.0
192.5
25.0
21.2
5.1
4.2
22.5
20.0
3.8
3.2
Dishman Pharma
Neutral
312
-
2,518
1,716
1,888
20.2
20.2
16.3
21.6
19.1
14.5
1.8
1.6
9.7
11.7
1.7
1.4
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
3,312
-
28,057
2,870
3,158
20.0
22.1
59.5
68.3
55.7
48.5
16.4
16.9
28.5
34.3
9.3
8.5
Indoco Remedies
Neutral
314
-
2,891
1,088
1,262
18.2
18.2
13.1
15.5
24.0
20.2
4.7
3.9
21.2
21.1
2.7
2.3
Ipca labs
Accumulate
749
800
9,451
3,507
4,078
17.6
18.6
25.8
32.0
29.0
23.4
3.8
3.3
13.8
14.9
3.0
2.5
Lupin
Neutral
2,018
-
90,815
14,864
17,244
26.9
26.9
62.1
71.1
32.5
28.4
7.9
6.2
27.4
24.6
5.8
4.9
Sun Pharma
Accumulate
850
950
204,643
28,163
32,610
25.8
30.7
17.4
26.9
48.9
31.6
4.6
4.0
13.0
16.6
6.7
5.6
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Market Outlook
September 30, 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Power
Tata Power
Neutral
66
-
17,864
35,923
37,402
22.6
22.8
4.1
5.2
16.3
12.8
1.3
1.2
7.5
9.3
1.4
1.3
NTPC
Buy
121
157
99,770
87,064
98,846
23.5
23.5
11.7
13.2
10.3
9.2
1.2
1.1
11.4
12.1
2.2
1.9
Power Grid
Buy
128
170
67,174
20,702
23,361
86.7
86.4
12.1
13.2
10.6
9.7
1.6
1.4
15.6
15.1
8.2
7.6
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
323
-
129,296
101,748
109,191
32.1
31.7
12.0
12.5
27.0
25.9
1.9
1.7
6.9
6.7
1.9
1.7
Idea Cellular
Neutral
139
-
50,139
34,282
36,941
32.0
31.5
5.9
6.2
23.6
22.5
2.2
2.0
9.9
9.3
2.0
1.9
zOthers
Abbott India
Neutral
5,654
-
12,014
2,715
3,153
14.5
14.1
134.3
152.2
42.1
37.1
10.5
8.7
27.4
25.6
4.1
3.5
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
249
341
2,508
4,719
5,287
5.2
5.8
8.6
12.7
29.1
19.6
3.3
2.9
11.4
14.8
0.5
0.5
Finolex Cables
Neutral
231
-
3,534
2,728
3,036
10.8
11.0
14.4
16.8
16.0
13.8
2.4
2.1
15.2
15.3
1.0
0.9
Goodyear India*
Buy
554
655
1,277
1,953
1,766
12.4
12.0
67.4
59.6
8.2
9.3
2.1
1.7
27.7
20.2
0.4
0.4
Hitachi
Neutral
1,327
-
3,609
1,806
2,112
9.0
9.2
28.6
29.1
46.4
45.6
11.5
9.3
28.1
22.6
2.1
1.8
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
307
-
5,557
1,620
1,847
11.5
11.5
7.3
8.5
42.1
36.2
5.4
5.0
13.3
14.4
3.3
2.8
MRF
Neutral
41,808
-
17,731
20,727
14,841
19.3
18.6
4,905.8
3,351.9
8.5
12.5
2.7
2.2
37.6
19.6
0.8
1.1
Page Industries
Neutral
13,074
-
14,583
1,929
2,450
19.8
20.1
229.9
299.0
56.9
43.7
25.1
17.4
52.1
47.1
7.6
6.0
Relaxo Footwears
Neutral
524
-
6,286
1,767
2,152
12.3
12.5
19.3
25.1
27.2
20.9
6.7
5.1
27.7
27.8
3.6
2.9
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
971
1,221
910
1,653
1,873
11.7
12.2
99.3
122.1
9.8
8.0
1.8
1.5
19.5
20.2
0.7
0.6
Styrolution ABS India*
Neutral
746
-
1,311
1,271
1,440
8.6
9.2
32.0
41.1
23.3
18.2
2.4
2.1
10.7
12.4
1.0
0.9
Tree House
Buy
312
449
1,321
259
324
56.8
56.8
17.0
21.7
18.4
14.4
1.8
1.7
10.1
11.5
5.0
4.2
TVS Srichakra
Buy
2,550
3,210
1,952
2,127
2,388
15.2
14.9
237.7
267.5
10.7
9.5
4.6
3.2
51.7
39.8
1.0
0.8
HSIL
Accumulate
264
302
1,906
2,182
2,404
16.3
16.5
15.8
18.9
16.7
14.0
1.4
1.3
8.4
9.4
1.2
1.1
Kirloskar Engines India
Accumulate
277
297
4,003
2,634
3,252
10.1
12.0
10.9
17.4
25.4
15.9
2.8
2.5
11.4
16.8
1.2
0.9
Ltd
M M Forgings
Buy
537
797
648
563
671
22.1
22.9
51.0
66.5
10.5
8.1
2.2
1.8
23.1
24.1
1.3
1.1
Banco Products (India)
Neutral
115
-
823
1,208
1,353
11.0
12.3
10.8
14.5
10.7
8.0
1.2
1.1
11.9
14.5
0.6
0.6
Competent Automobiles Neutral
152
-
93
1,007
1,114
3.1
3.1
23.7
28.2
6.4
5.4
0.9
0.8
13.9
14.6
0.1
0.1
Nilkamal
Neutral
975
-
1,455
1,948
2,147
10.6
10.3
60.0
67.0
16.3
14.6
2.5
2.2
16.8
16.1
0.8
0.7
Visaka Industries
Buy
127
166
202
1,158
1,272
8.6
9.5
23.7
32.7
5.4
3.9
0.5
0.5
10.1
12.5
0.3
0.3
Transport Corporation of
Buy
239
293
1,816
2,830
3,350
8.8
9.0
14.4
18.3
16.6
13.0
2.6
2.2
15.4
17.1
0.8
0.7
India
Elecon Engineering
Buy
70
87
766
1,452
1,596
14.0
14.7
4.4
6.2
15.9
11.3
1.3
1.2
8.6
11.2
0.8
0.7
Surya Roshni
Buy
128
183
560
2,992
3,223
8.3
8.5
14.7
18.3
8.7
7.0
0.8
0.7
9.8
11.0
0.5
0.4
MT Educare
Buy
128
169
510
286
366
18.3
17.7
7.7
9.4
16.6
13.7
3.5
3.1
20.2
21.1
1.7
1.3
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
September 30, 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E
zOthers
Radico Khaitan
Buy
84
112
1,111
1,565
1,687
11.9
12.4
5.4
6.6
15.4
12.7
1.2
1.1
8.0
9.0
1.2
1.2
Garware Wall Ropes
Buy
327
390
715
875
983
10.4
10.6
23.1
27.8
14.2
11.8
2.0
1.7
14.1
14.8
0.8
0.7
Wonderla Holidays
Accumulate
288
322
1,627
206
308
44.0
43.6
9.0
12.9
32.0
22.3
4.4
4.0
13.7
17.8
7.8
5.2
Linc Pen & Plastics
Buy
152
185
225
340
371
8.3
8.9
10.8
13.2
14.1
11.5
2.3
2.0
16.0
17.1
0.7
0.6
The Byke Hospitality
Accumulate
162
181
648
222
287
20.5
20.5
5.6
7.6
28.6
21.4
5.4
4.4
18.9
20.8
3.0
2.3
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on September 29, 2015
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
September 30, 2015
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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