Market Outlook
December 24, 2015
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are expected to open positive tracking the SGX Nifty and Asian
BSE Sensex
1.0
260
25,850
peers.
Nifty
1.0
80
7,866
US indices ended the day in positive territory with energy stocks leading the way
Mid Cap
0.3
33
10,988
higher. The strength on Wall Street was partly due to a substantial increase by the
Small Cap
0.4
50
11,673
price of crude oil, which climbed further off its recent lows. Crude for February
Bankex
0.8
159
19,287
delivery jumped $1.36 to $37.50 a barrel amid the release of a report unexpectedly
showing a sharp drop in crude oil inventories.
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
The European markets ended Wednesday's session with strong gains. A bullish oil
price forecast from OPEC provided a boost to energy stocks. OPEC said it expects
Dow Jones
1.1
185
17,602
the price of its crude oil to rise back toward $70 a barrel by 2020.
Nasdaq
0.9
45
5,046
Indian markets ended positively led by global cues coupled with a firmer rupee,
FTSE
2.6
158
6,241
encouraging current account data and optimism about the progressive nature of the
Nikkei
(0.2)
(29)
18,887
new bankruptcy code lifted Indian shares to nearly three-week highs on Wednesday.
Hang Seng
1.0
211
22,041
The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code has been referred to a Joint Committee of
Shanghai Com
(0.4)
(16)
3,636
Parliament having representation from both the houses of Parliament for further
scrutiny, effectively pushing its enactment at least to the Budget session beginning in
February.
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Advances
1,537
737
News & Result Analysis
Declines
1,162
821
Sun Pharma needs to fix leaking roof, contamination risks at Halol: FDA letter
Unchanged
234
60
Key takeaways from RBI’s Financial Stability report (FSR)
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Volumes (` Cr)
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
BSE
3,049
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
NSE
15,595
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Refer P4 onwards
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Top Picks
FII
614
(2,031)
16,119
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
MFs
38
1,525
66,116
(`)
(`)
(%)
Axis Bank
Financials
Buy
452
630
39.3
HCL Tech
IT
Buy
863
1,132
31.2
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
ICICI Bank
Financials
Buy
262
354
35.2
Sreinfra
52
12.7
Ashok Leyland
Automobiles
Buy
88
111
26.3
Essaroil
255
6.0
Larsen & Toubro
Construction
Buy
1,293
1,646
27.3
Gail
358
5.8
More Top Picks on Pg3
Hindalco
84
5.6
Trent
1,680
4.8
Key Upcoming Events
Previous
Consensus
Date
Region
Event Description
Reading
Expectations
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Dec 29
USA
Initial Jobless claims - Dec19 (in thousands)
271
270
Pfc
208
(3.9)
Jan 8
India
Imports YoY% - Dec (% change)
(30.26)
-
Bajajhldng
1,640
(3.3)
Jan 8
India
Exports YoY% - Dec (% change)
(24.43)
-
Aloktext
6
(2.9)
Jan 8
USA
Change in Nonfarm payrolls -Dec (in thousands)
211
200
Nationalum
40
(2.8)
Pvr
795
(2.7)
As on December 23, 2015
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
December 24, 2015
Sun Pharma needs to fix leaking roof, contamination risks at
Halol: FDA letter
The FDA has directed Sun Pharma to systematically improve the oversight of
manufacturing quality to ensure sustainable quality assurance. A leaking roof,
walls that weren't smooth enough to be cleaned easily, the possibility of microbial
contamination, inadequacies in airflow systems and the absence of a
comprehensive assessment of informal investigations. That's why the US Food and
Drug Administration issued a warning to Sun Pharmaceutical Industries 15 months
after inspectors visited the Halol plant, one of the company's largest manufacturing
sites
The warning letter cites deterioration in the physical infrastructure. Impurity levels
exceeded limits in exhibit batches, which were later found to be within limits. The
company stated that no data integrity issues were raised or no reference to the
quality of products was made in the warning letter. We view this news as a positive
for the stock and
maintain our Buy stance on the stock.
Key takeaways from RBI’s Financial Stability report (FSR)
India’s financial system remains stable and the relatively stronger
macroeconomic fundamentals lend resilience to face the still prevailing
uncertainty and emerging risks in the global economy and financial markets.
However, the policy makers and stakeholders will need to remain watchful
about the potential adverse impact of developments in the global scenario
particularly increased volatility in financial markets and further slowdown in
global trade.
On the domestic front, risks arising from erratic climatic conditions, limited
policy space, corporate performance, asset quality of financial institutions and
low investment growth, among other factors, could pose challenges.
In the corporate sector, declining profitability, high leverage and low-debt
servicing capacity continue to cause concern with their attendant adverse
impact on the financial sector, notwithstanding a marginal improvement
observed during the first half of current financial year.
While steps taken for developing corporate debt markets in India are showing
some results, the dependence on bank finance continues even as the banks,
especially the PSBs face challenges on asset quality, profitability and capital.
The deterioration in the asset quality of banks in general, and PSBs in
particular, continued during the year.
Economic and Political News
Govt says difficult to predict timeline for passage of GST bill
Oil up after US crude stocks drop, still close to 11-year lows
Bankruptcy Code referred to joint committee of Parliament
Corporate News
Lupin gets USFDA nod to market Potassium Chloride capsules
Mahindra to launch premium pick-up range
ICICI Bank to sell rail tickets on website
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
December 24, 2015
Top Picks
Large Cap
M
arket Cap
CM
P
T
arget
Upsid
e
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
To outpace battery industry growth due to better technological
Amara Raja Batteries
14,579
854
1,040
21.9
products leading to market share gains in both the automotive
OEM and replacement segments.
Earnings to grow strongly given the MHCV cyclical upturn.
Ashok Leyland
25,015
88
111
26.3
Focus on exports and LCV's provides additional growth
avenue.
Healthy pace of branch expansion, backed by distribution
Axis Bank
1,07,497
452
630
39.3
network, will be the driving force for the bank’s retail business
and overall earnings.
The stock is trading at attractive valuations and is factoring all
HCL Tech
1,21,642
863
1,132
31.2
the bad news.
Strong visibility for a robust 20% earnings trajectory, coupled
HDFC Bank
2,70,869
1,074
1,262
17.6
with high quality of earnings on account of high quality retail
business and strategic focus on highly rated corporates.
Due to its robust franchise and capital adequacy position, the
bank is well positioned to grow by at least a few percentage
ICICI Bank
1,52,157
262
354
35.2
points higher than the average industry growth rate from a
structural point of view.
Back on the growth trend, expect a long term growth of 14%
Infosys
2,52,205
1,098
1,306
18.9
to be a US$20bn in FY2020.
Well positioned to benefit from such expected gradual
recovery in the overall domestic capex cycle, given its presence
Larsen & Toubro
1,20,401
1,293
1,646
27.3
across various infrastructure segments, its execution
capabilities, and its strong balance sheet.
LICHF continues to grow its retail loan book at a healthy pace
with improvement in asset quality. We expect the company to
LIC Housing Finance
24,711
490
571
16.6
post a healthy loan book which is likely to reflect in a strong
earnings growth.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Mid Cap
M
arket Cap
CM
P
T
arget
Upsid
e
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favourable outlook for the AC industry to augur well for
Cooling products business which is out pacing the market
Blue Star
3,372
375
429
14.4
growth. EMPPAC division's profitability to improve once
operating environment turns around.
Change in business focus towards high-margin chronic &
Ipca labs
9,480
751
900
19.8
lifestyle segments and increasing penetration in Europe and
US
Economic recovery to have favourable impact on advertising &
circulation revenue growth. Further, the acquisition of a radio
Jagran Prakashan
5,175
158
169
6.8
business (Radio City) would also boost the company's revenue
growth.
Earnings boost on back of stable material prices and
Radico Khaitan
1,486
112
156
39.7
favourable pricing environment. Valuation discount to peers
provides additional comfort
Strong brands and distribution network would boost growth
Siyaram Silk Mills
1,106
1,180
1,354
14.8
going ahead. Stock currently trades at an inexpensive
valuation.
Structural shift in the Lighting industry towards LED lighting will
Surya Roshni
642
147
183
24.9
drive growth.
Source: Company, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
December 24, 2015
Key Upcoming Events
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
Dec 24, 2015
7:00PM
US
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Dec 19
271.00
270.00
Dec 29, 2015
8:30PM
US
Consumer Confidence
S.A./ 1985=100
Dec
90.40
93.60
Jan 1, 2016
6:30AM
China
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Dec
49.60
49.80
Jan 4, 2016
2:25PM
Germany
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Dec F
53.00
53.00
3:00PM
UK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Dec
52.70
53.00
Jan 5, 2016
2:25PM
Germany
Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Dec
(13.00)
(8.00)
Jan 6, 2016
2:25PM
Germany
PMI Services
Value
Dec F
55.40
55.40
Jan 7, 2016
3:30PM
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value
Dec F
(5.70)
--
Jan 8, 2016
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Dec
(30.26)
--
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Dec
(24.43)
--
7:00PM
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Dec
211.00
200.00
7:00PM
US
Unnemployment rate
%
Dec
5.00
5.00
Jan 12, 2016
5:30PM
India
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Nov
9.80
--
3:00PM
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Nov
1.70
--
Jan 14, 2016
12:00PM
India
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
% Change
Dec
(1.99)
--
5:30PM
UK
BOE Announces rates
% Ratio
Jan 14
0.50
0.50
Jan 15, 2016
7:45PM
US
Industrial Production
%
Dec
(0.56)
--
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Dec
0.10
--
Jan 19, 2016
3:00PM
UK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Dec
0.10
--
Jan 20, 2016
7:00PM
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Dec
1,173.00
--
7:00PM
US
Building permits
Thousands
Dec
1,289.00
--
3:00PM
UK
Jobless claims change
% Change
Dec
3.90
--
7:00PM
US
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Dec
--
--
Jan 21, 2016
3:30PM
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
%
Dec F
0.20
--
6:15PM
Euro Zone
ECB announces interest rates
%
Jan 21
0.05
--
Jan 22, 2016
8:30PM
US
Existing home sales
Million
Dec
4.76
--
Jan 28, 2016
12:30AM
US
FOMC rate decision
%
Jan 27
0.50
0.50
Jan 29, 2016
7:00PM
US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
4Q A
2.00
--
Feb 2, 2016
11:00AM
India
RBI Reverse Repo rate
%
Feb 2
5.75
--
11:00AM
India
RBI Repo rate
%
Feb 2
6.75
--
11:00AM
India
RBI Cash Reserve ratio
%
Feb 2
4.00
--
Feb 12, 2016
3:30PM
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
% Change
4Q A
0.30
--
12:30PM
Germany
GDP nsa (YoY)
% Change
4Q P
1.80
--
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
December 24, 2015
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
9.0
8.4
12.0
9.8
8.0
7.5
7.5
7.4
10.0
7.0
7.0
6.7
6.7
6.6
7.0
6.4
8.0
6.3
6.0
6.0
4.8
5.0
4.2
4.3
4.7
3.6
3.8
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.8
2.5
2.5
4.0
2.0
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
6.0
5.4
5.3
5.4
5.4
5.2
5.0
5.0
54.0
4.9
5.0
4.3
4.4
3.7
3.7
52.0
4.0
3.0
50.0
2.0
48.0
1.0
46.0
-
44.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
0.0
8.00
(5.0)
7.50
7.00
(10.0)
6.50
(15.0)
6.00
5.50
(20.0)
5.00
(25.0)
4.50
4.00
(30.0)
3.50
(35.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
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Market Outlook
December 24, 2015
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
6.9
5.3
6.0
4.7
4.7
4.0
2.9
2.1
2.1
1.8
2.0
1.0
1.1
1.6
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(4.1)
(4.5)
(6.0)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2015 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
7.3
8.0
6.8
6.0
4.7
4.7
4.0
2.5
2.5
2.6
1.4
1.5
2.0
1.2
0.6
(3.8)
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(3.0)
(6.0)
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
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Market Outlook
December 24, 2015
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
44,015
(7.1)
(9.6)
(11.9)
Russia
Micex
1,748
(5.0)
0.5
21.6
India
Nifty
7,866
(1.0)
(0.4)
(5.6)
China
Shanghai Composite
3,636
0.3
14.9
25.3
South Africa
Top 40
45,866
(5.9)
(4.7)
5.7
Mexico
Mexbol
43,580
(3.5)
(2.0)
1.1
Indonesia
LQ45
778
(0.0)
5.8
(12.5)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,664
(0.4)
1.5
(1.1)
Thailand
SET 50
811
(8.6)
(9.1)
(23.8)
USA
Dow Jones
17,603
(2.1)
4.5
(3.8)
UK
FTSE
6,241
(1.0)
4.7
(5.9)
Japan
Nikkei
18,887
(4.9)
4.8
9.4
Germany
DAX
10,728
(3.2)
6.6
8.4
France
CAC
4,675
(5.7)
0.9
7.7
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
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Stock Watch
December 24, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis
Neutral
173
-
3,364
2,075
2,394
14.4
14.4
9.5
11.0
18.2
15.7
3.6
3.1
21.1
21.3
1.7
1.4
United Phosphorus
Buy
433
510
18,569
13,698
15,752
17.6
17.6
32.1
38.5
13.5
11.3
2.6
2.2
21.4
21.3
1.5
1.2
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Ashok Leyland
Buy
88
111
25,015
17,995
21,544
11.4
11.6
3.4
4.7
25.9
18.7
4.5
4.2
17.7
22.2
1.3
1.1
Bajaj Auto
Accumulate
2,476
2,728
71,636
23,695
27,298
21.3
20.4
134.6
151.5
18.4
16.3
5.9
5.0
31.8
30.6
2.6
2.2
Bharat Forge
Accumulate
854
943
19,882
7,867
8,881
20.0
20.3
34.4
41.0
24.8
20.8
4.8
4.0
21.1
20.9
2.7
2.3
Eicher Motors
Buy
16,190
19,036
43,962
15,379
16,498
15.6
16.6
473.2
574.8
34.2
28.2
12.7
9.4
36.7
33.2
2.8
2.5
Gabriel India
Accumulate
91
101
1,301
1,415
1,544
8.7
9.0
4.6
5.4
19.7
16.8
3.6
3.2
18.1
18.9
0.9
0.8
Hero Motocorp
Neutral
2,675
-
53,420
28,561
31,559
14.7
14.7
151.1
163.2
17.7
16.4
6.9
5.8
38.7
35.6
1.7
1.5
Jamna Auto Industries Neutral
128
-
1,025
1,292
1,486
9.3
9.8
6.0
7.5
21.4
17.1
4.4
3.7
20.7
21.8
0.9
0.8
L G Balakrishnan & Bros Neutral
512
-
803
1,254
1,394
11.6
11.8
35.9
41.7
14.3
12.3
1.9
1.7
13.5
13.8
0.7
0.7
Mahindra and Mahindra Buy
1,253
1,449
77,814
39,031
44,440
13.8
13.9
57.9
67.6
21.6
18.5
3.5
3.1
16.1
16.6
1.6
1.4
Maruti
Neutral
4,635
-
140,020
57,865
68,104
16.4
16.7
176.3
225.5
26.3
20.6
5.1
4.4
19.4
21.2
2.2
1.8
Minda Industries
Neutral
899
-
1,426
2,567
2,965
8.0
8.3
46.1
57.8
19.5
15.6
3.3
2.7
16.7
17.3
0.7
0.6
Motherson Sumi
Accumulate
293
313
38,690
39,343
45,100
8.8
9.1
10.1
12.5
29.0
23.4
9.2
7.2
35.3
34.4
1.1
0.9
Rane Brake Lining
Accumulate
330
366
262
454
511
11.1
11.4
23.8
28.1
13.9
11.8
2.0
1.8
14.2
15.3
0.7
0.6
Setco Automotive
Neutral
44
-
588
594
741
12.7
13.7
1.7
3.2
25.9
13.8
2.7
2.4
10.4
16.9
1.4
1.2
Tata Motors
Accumulate
379
402
109,310
255,254
301,772
12.9
13.4
23.7
37.3
16.0
10.2
1.9
1.6
7.4
12.1
0.6
0.5
TVS Motor
Buy
290
338
13,782
11,569
13,648
7.3
8.7
10.3
16.1
28.2
18.0
7.0
5.5
24.8
30.5
1.2
1.0
Amara Raja Batteries
Buy
854
1,040
14,579
4,892
5,871
17.4
17.6
28.8
37.1
29.6
23.0
6.9
5.5
23.4
24.1
2.9
2.4
Exide Industries
Accumulate
143
162
12,151
6,950
7,784
14.4
14.8
6.6
7.3
21.7
19.6
2.7
2.5
12.6
12.8
1.5
1.3
Apollo Tyres
Accumulate
152
171
7,742
12,146
12,689
16.8
16.0
21.2
19.0
7.2
8.0
1.2
1.0
16.5
13.0
0.7
0.8
Ceat
Accumulate
1,057
1,119
4,277
6,041
6,597
14.1
13.7
99.5
111.9
10.6
9.5
2.1
1.8
19.6
18.5
0.9
0.7
JK Tyres
Neutral
112
-
2,541
7,446
7,669
15.2
14.0
19.6
18.4
5.7
6.1
1.4
1.2
25.2
19.5
0.7
0.6
Swaraj Engines
Neutral
948
-
1,177
552
630
14.2
14.7
44.6
54.1
21.3
17.5
4.9
4.5
23.2
25.6
2.0
1.7
Subros
Neutral
109
-
653
1,268
1,488
11.6
11.9
3.7
6.6
29.4
16.5
2.0
1.8
6.8
11.4
0.8
0.7
Indag Rubber
Neutral
208
-
546
283
329
17.0
17.2
13.0
15.4
16.1
13.5
3.5
2.9
21.8
21.6
1.6
1.4
Capital Goods
ACE
Neutral
44
-
436
660
839
4.7
8.2
1.0
3.9
44.1
11.3
1.4
1.2
3.2
11.3
0.8
0.6
BEML
Neutral
1,263
-
5,259
3,277
4,006
6.0
8.9
29.2
64.3
43.2
19.6
2.4
2.2
5.7
11.7
1.7
1.3
Bharat Electronics
Accumulate
1,272
1,414
30,533
7,737
8,634
16.8
17.2
54.0
61.0
23.6
20.9
3.4
3.0
39.3
45.6
3.1
2.6
www.angelbroking.com
Stock Watch
December 24, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Capital Goods
Voltas
Accumulate
307
353
10,165
5,363
5,963
8.0
9.1
11.0
13.8
27.9
22.3
4.3
3.8
16.2
17.9
1.8
1.6
BGR Energy
Neutral
128
-
922
3,615
3,181
9.5
9.4
16.7
12.4
7.7
10.3
0.7
0.7
10.0
7.0
0.7
0.8
BHEL
Neutral
172
-
42,123
33,722
35,272
10.8
11.7
10.5
14.2
16.4
12.1
1.2
1.1
7.0
9.0
1.3
1.3
Blue Star
Accumulate
375
429
3,372
3,548
3,977
6.3
6.9
13.7
17.2
27.4
21.9
6.9
4.5
26.1
25.4
1.0
0.9
Crompton Greaves
Accumulate
189
204
11,867
13,484
14,687
4.9
6.2
4.5
7.1
42.1
26.7
3.0
2.8
7.2
10.8
1.0
0.9
Inox Wind
Buy
365
505
8,106
4,980
5,943
17.0
17.5
26.6
31.6
13.7
11.6
4.1
3.0
35.0
30.0
1.8
1.4
KEC International
Neutral
155
-
3,973
8,791
9,716
6.1
6.8
5.4
8.2
28.6
18.9
2.9
2.6
10.0
14.0
0.7
0.6
Thermax
Neutral
960
-
11,442
6,413
7,525
7.4
8.5
30.5
39.3
31.5
24.4
4.9
4.2
15.0
17.0
1.8
1.5
Cement
ACC
Buy
1,340
1,630
25,164
13,151
14,757
16.4
18.3
63.9
83.4
21.0
16.1
2.7
2.5
13.3
16.1
1.8
1.5
Ambuja Cements
Buy
201
233
31,255
11,564
12,556
19.4
20.7
8.9
10.1
22.6
19.9
2.8
2.7
12.8
13.8
2.3
2.1
HeidelbergCement
Neutral
79
-
1,779
1,772
1,926
13.3
15.4
1.0
3.0
78.5
26.2
2.0
1.8
2.6
7.9
1.6
1.4
India Cements
Buy
85
112
2,622
4,216
4,840
18.0
19.5
4.0
9.9
21.3
8.6
0.9
0.8
4.0
9.5
1.0
0.8
JK Cement
Buy
622
744
4,349
3,661
4,742
10.1
15.8
18.0
61.0
34.6
10.2
2.5
2.2
7.5
22.9
1.7
1.2
J K Lakshmi Cement
Buy
328
430
3,859
2,947
3,616
16.7
19.9
11.5
27.2
28.5
12.1
2.7
2.3
9.8
20.8
1.7
1.4
Mangalam Cements
Neutral
205
-
547
1,053
1,347
10.5
13.3
8.4
26.0
24.4
7.9
1.0
1.0
4.3
12.5
0.9
0.7
Orient Cement
Accumulate
160
183
3,275
1,854
2,524
21.2
22.2
7.7
11.1
20.8
14.4
3.0
2.6
13.3
15.7
2.5
1.8
Ramco Cements
Neutral
363
-
8,645
4,036
4,545
20.8
21.3
15.1
18.8
24.1
19.3
2.9
2.6
12.9
14.3
2.7
2.3
Shree Cement^
Neutral
10,872
-
37,875
7,150
8,742
26.7
28.6
228.0
345.5
47.7
31.5
7.0
5.9
15.7
20.3
5.1
4.1
UltraTech Cement
Buy
2,818
3,282
77,334
25,021
30,023
19.1
21.6
89.0
132.0
31.7
21.4
3.7
3.2
12.2
15.9
3.2
2.6
Construction
ITNL
Neutral
82
-
2,681
7,360
8,825
34.0
35.9
7.0
9.0
11.6
9.1
0.4
0.4
3.2
3.7
3.7
3.6
KNR Constructions
Accumulate
588
673
1,654
937
1,470
14.3
14.0
33.5
38.6
17.6
15.2
2.7
2.3
15.4
15.4
1.8
1.2
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,293
1,646
120,401
65,065
77,009
11.5
11.7
61.5
65.6
21.0
19.7
2.1
1.9
13.4
14.0
2.0
1.7
Gujarat Pipavav Port
Neutral
144
-
6,964
629
684
51.0
52.2
6.4
5.9
22.5
24.4
3.0
2.7
15.9
12.7
10.7
9.7
MBL Infrastructures
Buy
218
285
902
2,313
2,797
12.2
14.6
19.0
20.0
11.5
10.9
1.2
1.1
11.3
10.6
1.1
1.0
Nagarjuna Const.
Neutral
76
-
4,208
7,892
8,842
8.8
9.1
3.0
5.3
25.2
14.3
1.3
1.2
5.0
8.5
0.8
0.7
PNC Infratech
Neutral
540
-
2,771
1,873
2,288
13.2
13.5
24.0
32.0
22.5
16.9
2.2
1.9
12.1
12.3
1.6
1.3
Simplex Infra
Neutral
328
-
1,624
5,955
6,829
10.3
10.5
16.0
31.0
20.5
10.6
1.1
1.0
5.3
9.9
0.8
0.7
Power Mech Projects
Neutral
635
-
933
1,539
1,801
12.8
12.7
59.0
72.1
10.8
8.8
1.6
1.4
18.6
16.8
0.6
0.5
Sadbhav Engineering
Neutral
343
-
5,878
3,481
4,219
10.7
10.8
8.0
12.0
42.8
28.6
4.0
3.5
10.3
13.5
2.0
1.6
www.angelbroking.com
Stock Watch
December 24, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Construction
NBCC
Accumulate
999
1,089
11,983
7,382
9,506
7.7
8.6
39.8
54.4
25.1
18.4
6.1
4.8
26.7
29.1
1.4
1.0
SIPL
Neutral
97
-
3,429
675
1,042
62.4
64.7
-
-
3.7
4.2
-
-
16.7
11.3
Financials
Allahabad Bank
Neutral
71
-
4,249
8,569
9,392
2.8
2.9
16.3
27.5
4.3
2.6
0.4
0.3
7.6
11.9
-
-
Axis Bank
Buy
452
630
107,497
26,473
31,527
3.5
3.6
35.7
43.5
12.6
10.4
2.4
2.1
17.9
18.9
-
-
Bank of Baroda
Neutral
158
-
36,498
18,485
21,025
1.9
2.0
13.5
21.1
11.8
7.5
0.9
0.8
7.3
10.6
-
-
Bank of India
Neutral
117
-
9,301
15,972
17,271
1.9
2.0
15.3
33.4
7.7
3.5
0.4
0.3
3.6
7.6
-
-
Canara Bank
Neutral
241
-
13,081
15,441
16,945
2.0
2.1
46.6
70.4
5.2
3.4
0.5
0.4
8.0
11.2
-
-
Dena Bank
Neutral
41
-
2,675
3,440
3,840
2.1
2.3
7.3
10.0
5.7
4.1
0.4
0.4
6.1
7.9
-
-
Federal Bank
Neutral
56
-
9,677
3,477
3,999
3.0
3.0
5.0
6.2
11.2
9.0
1.1
1.0
10.6
11.9
-
-
HDFC
Neutral
1,237
-
195,288
10,358
11,852
3.3
3.3
41.1
47.0
30.1
26.3
5.7
5.2
24.7
24.9
-
-
HDFC Bank
Buy
1,074
1,262
270,869
38,309
47,302
4.3
4.3
49.3
61.1
21.8
17.6
3.8
3.2
18.5
19.7
-
-
ICICI Bank
Buy
262
354
152,157
34,279
39,262
3.3
3.3
21.0
24.4
12.5
10.7
2.1
1.8
14.4
14.7
-
-
IDBI Bank
Neutral
89
-
14,307
9,625
10,455
1.8
1.8
8.5
14.2
10.5
6.3
0.7
0.6
5.9
9.3
-
-
Indian Bank
Neutral
113
-
5,406
6,160
6,858
2.5
2.5
24.5
29.8
4.6
3.8
0.4
0.3
7.7
8.6
-
-
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
490
571
24,711
3,101
3,745
2.5
2.5
33.0
40.2
14.9
12.2
2.8
2.4
19.7
20.5
-
-
Oriental Bank
Neutral
137
-
4,120
7,643
8,373
2.4
2.4
37.2
45.4
3.7
3.0
0.3
0.3
8.2
9.4
-
-
Punjab Natl.Bank
Neutral
121
-
23,818
23,638
26,557
2.8
2.8
17.9
27.2
6.8
4.5
0.7
0.6
8.5
12.0
-
-
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
20
-
2,640
1,965
2,185
2.5
2.5
2.5
3.3
7.9
5.9
0.8
0.7
9.5
11.7
-
-
St Bk of India
Buy
230
283
178,466
82,520
93,299
2.7
2.8
20.0
24.5
11.5
9.4
1.3
1.1
11.5
12.8
-
-
Union Bank
Neutral
153
-
10,501
12,646
14,129
2.3
2.4
31.0
39.1
4.9
3.9
0.5
0.5
9.8
11.4
-
-
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
34
-
2,934
3,536
3,827
1.9
1.9
5.5
6.7
6.2
5.1
0.5
0.5
7.8
8.8
-
-
Yes Bank
Buy
725
921
30,393
7,190
9,011
3.2
3.3
58.2
69.7
12.5
10.4
2.2
1.9
19.2
19.6
-
-
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
878
-
84,227
16,553
19,160
16.0
16.2
17.7
21.5
49.7
40.8
13.2
11.9
29.4
31.2
4.9
4.2
Britannia
Neutral
2,897
-
34,758
8,065
9,395
9.6
10.2
47.2
65.5
61.4
44.2
20.4
19.3
38.3
41.2
4.2
3.6
Colgate
Neutral
985
-
26,791
4,836
5,490
19.5
19.7
48.5
53.2
20.3
18.5
14.9
13.0
99.8
97.5
5.4
4.8
Dabur India
Neutral
278
-
48,983
9,370
10,265
17.1
17.2
7.3
8.1
38.0
34.4
11.5
9.3
33.7
30.6
5.1
4.7
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
6,771
-
28,474
4,919
5,742
17.2
17.4
168.3
191.2
40.2
35.4
11.4
9.7
28.8
28.9
5.4
4.5
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
1,295
-
44,114
10,168
12,886
16.1
16.1
32.1
38.4
40.4
33.7
8.2
7.6
19.7
21.0
4.4
3.5
HUL
Neutral
861
-
186,385
34,940
38,957
17.5
17.7
20.8
24.7
41.4
34.9
46.1
36.8
110.5
114.2
5.1
4.6
www.angelbroking.com
Stock Watch
December 24, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FMCG
ITC
Buy
322
382
258,243
41,068
45,068
37.8
37.4
13.9
15.9
23.1
20.2
7.7
6.8
34.1
33.8
5.9
5.4
Marico
Buy
223
363
28,771
6,551
7,766
15.7
16.0
10.4
12.5
21.5
17.8
6.2
5.2
33.2
32.4
4.3
3.6
Nestle*
Buy
5,768
6,646
55,611
11,291
12,847
22.2
22.3
158.9
184.6
36.3
31.3
19.0
17.1
55.0
57.3
4.8
4.2
Tata Global
Neutral
142
-
8,962
8,635
9,072
9.8
9.9
6.5
7.6
21.9
18.7
2.2
2.1
6.8
7.4
1.0
0.9
IT
HCL Tech^
Buy
863
1,132
121,642
42,038
47,503
23.2
23.5
55.8
62.9
15.5
13.7
3.6
2.7
23.0
19.8
2.5
2.0
Infosys
Buy
1,098
1,306
252,205
60,250
66,999
28.0
28.0
58.3
63.7
18.8
17.2
4.0
3.4
20.9
19.7
3.5
3.0
TCS
Buy
2,420
3,165
476,922
111,274
126,852
28.4
28.7
125.4
143.9
19.3
16.8
7.6
7.0
39.9
42.2
3.9
3.4
Tech Mahindra
Buy
518
646
50,119
25,566
28,890
16.0
17.0
26.3
31.9
19.7
16.3
3.5
3.0
17.9
18.6
1.7
1.5
Wipro
Buy
556
719
137,303
52,414
58,704
23.7
23.8
38.4
42.3
14.5
13.1
2.8
2.5
19.5
18.0
2.2
1.8
Media
D B Corp
Accumulate
330
356
6,055
2,241
2,495
27.8
27.9
21.8
25.6
15.1
12.9
4.0
3.5
26.7
28.5
2.6
2.4
HT Media
Neutral
85
-
1,980
2,495
2,603
11.2
11.2
7.3
8.6
11.7
9.9
0.9
0.8
7.4
8.1
0.3
0.3
Jagran Prakashan
Accumulate
158
169
5,175
2,170
2,355
27.2
26.2
8.9
9.9
17.8
16.0
3.7
3.3
20.9
20.5
2.3
2.1
Sun TV Network
Neutral
394
-
15,509
2,779
3,196
70.2
70.5
22.8
27.3
17.3
14.4
4.3
3.9
26.7
28.3
5.3
4.6
Hindustan Media
Neutral
289
-
2,119
920
1,031
20.0
20.0
19.2
20.9
15.0
13.8
2.5
2.1
16.4
15.3
1.8
1.6
Ventures
Metals & Mining
Coal India
Buy
322
380
203,261
76,167
84,130
19.9
22.3
22.4
25.8
14.4
12.5
5.2
5.0
35.5
41.0
2.0
1.8
Hind. Zinc
Buy
147
175
62,028
14,641
14,026
50.4
50.4
17.7
16.0
8.3
9.2
1.3
1.2
16.2
13.2
1.9
1.7
Hindalco
Neutral
84
-
17,336
104,356
111,186
8.7
9.5
6.7
11.1
12.5
7.6
0.5
0.4
3.5
5.9
0.7
0.6
JSW Steel
Neutral
1,051
-
25,415
42,308
45,147
16.4
20.7
(10.3)
49.5
21.2
1.2
1.1
(1.0)
5.6
1.7
1.5
NMDC
Neutral
90
-
35,643
8,237
10,893
46.6
44.5
10.0
11.7
9.0
7.7
1.0
0.9
12.5
13.0
4.1
3.1
SAIL
Neutral
49
-
20,031
45,915
53,954
7.2
10.5
1.5
4.4
32.2
11.1
0.5
0.5
2.3
4.1
1.1
1.0
Vedanta
Neutral
89
-
26,475
71,445
81,910
26.2
26.3
12.9
19.2
6.9
4.7
0.5
0.4
7.2
8.9
0.8
0.6
Tata Steel
Neutral
264
-
25,611
126,760
137,307
8.9
11.3
6.4
23.1
41.5
11.4
0.8
0.8
2.0
7.1
0.8
0.7
Oil & Gas
Cairn India
Neutral
135
-
25,348
11,323
12,490
49.4
51.0
20.7
20.7
6.5
6.6
0.4
0.4
6.4
6.1
1.3
0.7
GAIL
Neutral
358
-
45,443
64,856
70,933
9.1
9.6
24.0
28.9
15.0
12.4
1.3
1.2
8.8
9.6
0.9
0.8
ONGC
Neutral
235
-
201,396
154,564
167,321
36.8
37.4
28.6
32.5
8.2
7.3
1.1
1.0
12.7
13.5
1.5
1.4
Petronet LNG
Neutral
240
-
17,981
29,691
31,188
5.8
6.2
12.8
13.4
18.8
17.9
2.8
2.5
15.8
14.8
0.7
0.6
Indian Oil Corp
Accumulate
433
455
105,155
359,607
402,760
5.9
6.1
42.5
48.7
10.2
8.9
1.4
1.2
14.1
14.4
0.4
0.4
Reliance Industries
Neutral
1,004
-
325,071
304,775
344,392
12.6
13.4
91.3
102.6
11.0
9.8
1.2
1.1
11.8
12.0
1.0
0.8
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
691
-
13,020
2,658
3,112
24.1
20.2
24.6
23.9
28.1
28.9
10.1
7.7
42.5
30.2
4.9
4.1
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Stock Watch
December 24, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Pharmaceuticals
Aurobindo Pharma
Neutral
869
-
50,726
14,923
17,162
23.0
23.0
38.2
43.6
22.7
19.9
7.0
5.3
36.0
30.2
3.7
3.2
Aventis*
Neutral
4,399
-
10,130
2,082
2,371
17.4
20.8
118.2
151.5
37.2
29.0
5.4
4.4
19.9
25.5
4.5
3.8
Cadila Healthcare
Neutral
392
-
40,100
10,224
11,840
21.0
22.0
14.6
17.6
26.8
22.3
7.4
5.8
30.8
29.0
4.0
3.4
Cipla
Neutral
647
-
51,994
14,211
16,611
20.6
19.0
27.0
28.9
24.0
22.4
4.1
3.5
18.4
16.8
3.6
3.1
Dr Reddy's
Buy
3,020
3,933
51,501
16,838
19,575
25.0
23.1
167.5
178.8
18.0
16.9
3.8
3.2
23.1
20.4
3.0
2.5
Dishman Pharma
Neutral
327
-
2,640
1,733
1,906
21.5
21.5
17.0
19.9
19.3
16.4
1.9
1.8
10.5
11.2
2.0
1.7
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
3,286
-
27,833
2,870
3,158
20.0
22.1
59.5
68.3
55.2
48.1
16.3
16.7
28.5
34.3
9.2
8.4
Indoco Remedies
Neutral
334
-
3,074
1,033
1,199
15.9
18.2
9.4
13.6
35.5
24.5
5.3
4.5
15.7
19.7
3.1
2.7
Ipca labs
Buy
751
900
9,481
3,363
3,909
12.9
18.6
13.4
28.0
56.1
26.8
4.0
3.5
7.4
14.0
3.1
2.7
Lupin
Neutral
1,804
-
81,254
13,092
16,561
25.0
27.0
50.4
68.3
35.8
26.4
7.4
5.8
22.8
24.7
5.9
4.6
Sun Pharma
Buy
791
950
190,375
28,163
32,610
25.8
30.7
17.4
26.9
45.5
29.4
4.3
3.7
13.0
16.6
6.2
5.2
Power
Tata Power
Neutral
66
-
17,783
35,923
37,402
22.6
22.8
4.1
5.2
16.2
12.8
1.2
1.2
7.5
9.3
1.4
1.3
NTPC
Accumulate
139
157
114,653
87,064
98,846
23.5
23.5
11.7
13.2
11.9
10.5
1.3
1.2
11.4
12.1
2.3
2.1
Power Grid
Buy
140
170
73,242
20,702
23,361
86.7
86.4
12.1
13.2
11.6
10.6
1.7
1.5
15.6
15.1
8.5
7.9
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
332
-
132,774
101,748
109,191
32.1
31.7
12.0
12.5
27.7
26.6
1.9
1.8
6.9
6.7
1.9
1.8
Idea Cellular
Neutral
140
-
50,292
34,282
36,941
32.0
31.5
5.9
6.2
23.7
22.5
2.2
2.0
9.9
9.3
2.0
1.9
zOthers
Abbott India
Neutral
5,688
-
12,086
2,715
3,153
14.5
14.1
134.3
152.2
42.4
37.4
10.6
8.7
27.4
25.6
4.2
3.5
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
214
290
2,160
4,719
5,287
5.2
5.8
8.6
12.7
25.0
16.9
2.9
2.5
11.4
14.8
0.5
0.4
Finolex Cables
Neutral
250
-
3,829
2,520
2,883
12.2
12.0
12.7
14.2
19.8
17.6
2.7
2.4
13.6
13.5
1.3
1.1
Goodyear India*
Accumulate
569
622
1,312
1,888
1,680
12.1
11.9
62.2
56.6
9.1
10.1
2.1
1.8
25.9
19.7
0.5
0.5
Hitachi
Neutral
1,371
-
3,729
1,779
2,081
7.8
8.8
21.8
33.4
62.9
41.0
10.2
8.2
17.4
22.1
2.2
1.8
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
295
-
5,334
1,620
1,847
11.5
11.5
7.3
8.5
40.4
34.8
5.2
4.8
13.3
14.4
3.2
2.7
MRF
Buy
39,240
45,575
16,642
20,316
14,488
21.4
21.1
5,488.0
3,798.0
7.2
10.3
2.4
2.0
41.1
21.2
0.8
1.0
Page Industries
Neutral
12,977
-
14,475
1,929
2,450
19.8
20.1
229.9
299.0
56.5
43.4
24.9
17.3
52.1
47.1
7.5
5.9
Relaxo Footwears
Neutral
485
-
5,824
1,767
2,152
12.3
12.5
19.3
25.1
25.2
19.4
6.2
4.8
27.7
27.8
3.4
2.7
Siyaram Silk Mills
Accumulate
1,180
1,354
1,106
1,636
1,815
11.5
11.5
89.9
104.1
13.1
11.3
2.2
1.9
17.9
17.8
0.8
0.7
Styrolution ABS India*
Neutral
726
-
1,276
1,271
1,440
8.6
9.2
32.0
41.1
22.7
17.7
2.3
2.1
10.7
12.4
1.0
0.8
TVS Srichakra
Buy
2,799
3,240
2,143
2,101
2,338
15.7
15.0
248.6
270.0
11.3
10.4
4.9
3.5
43.6
34.0
1.1
0.9
HSIL
Neutral
303
-
2,190
2,123
2,384
16.1
16.5
15.0
18.9
20.1
16.1
1.6
1.5
8.0
9.4
1.4
1.2
www.angelbroking.com
Stock Watch
December 24, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E FY17E
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
zOthers
Kirloskar Engines India
Neutral
242
-
3,503
2,471
2,826
8.8
10.4
9.1
13.3
26.5
18.2
2.5
2.4
9.7
13.4
1.1
0.9
Ltd
M M Forgings
Buy
503
614
607
511
615
21.7
21.6
43.1
55.8
11.7
9.0
2.1
1.7
19.9
21.2
1.4
1.1
Banco Products (India) Neutral
139
-
994
1,208
1,353
11.0
12.3
10.8
14.5
12.9
9.6
1.5
1.3
11.9
14.5
0.8
0.7
Competent Automobiles Neutral
148
-
91
1,040
1,137
3.2
3.1
25.7
28.0
5.8
5.3
0.9
0.8
15.0
14.3
0.1
0.1
Nilkamal
Neutral
1,260
-
1,881
1,910
2,083
10.5
10.3
63.3
69.2
19.9
18.2
3.3
2.8
17.6
16.5
1.0
0.9
Visaka Industries
Accumulate
128
144
204
1,086
1,197
9.9
10.3
21.5
28.8
6.0
4.5
0.6
0.5
9.6
11.6
0.4
0.3
Transport Corporation of
Neutral
299
-
2,272
2,830
3,350
8.8
9.0
14.4
18.3
20.8
16.3
3.2
2.8
15.4
17.1
0.9
0.8
India
Elecon Engineering
Neutral
87
-
952
1,369
1,533
13.7
14.9
3.3
6.1
26.3
14.4
1.7
1.6
6.6
11.4
1.0
0.9
Surya Roshni
Buy
147
183
642
2,992
3,223
8.1
8.4
14.7
18.3
10.0
8.0
0.9
0.8
9.7
11.0
0.5
0.5
MT Educare
Neutral
177
-
704
286
366
18.3
17.7
7.7
9.4
22.9
18.9
4.8
4.2
20.2
21.1
2.4
1.8
Radico Khaitan
Buy
112
156
1,486
1,565
1,687
12.2
13.0
5.7
7.1
19.6
15.7
1.7
1.5
8.3
9.6
1.4
1.3
Garware Wall Ropes
Neutral
424
-
928
861
967
10.9
10.9
24.0
28.2
17.7
15.0
2.6
2.2
14.6
14.9
1.1
0.9
Wonderla Holidays
Neutral
410
-
2,317
206
308
44.0
43.6
9.0
12.9
45.6
31.8
6.2
5.6
13.7
17.8
11.1
7.4
Linc Pen & Plastics
Neutral
215
-
318
340
371
8.3
8.9
10.8
13.2
19.9
16.3
3.2
2.8
16.0
17.1
1.0
0.9
The Byke Hospitality
Neutral
151
-
604
222
287
20.5
20.5
5.6
7.6
26.7
20.0
5.0
4.1
18.9
20.8
2.8
2.1
Interglobe Aviation
Neutral
1,183
-
42,632
17,022
21,122
20.7
14.5
63.9
53.7
18.5
22.0
27.7
22.7
149.9
103.2
2.5
2.0
Coffee Day Enterprises
Neutral
276
-
5,692
2,692
2,964
17.0
18.6
-
4.7
-
58.3
3.4
3.2
0.2
5.5
2.5
2.3
Ltd
Navneet Education
Accumulate
88
97
2,100
998
1,062
24.1
24.0
5.8
6.1
15.3
14.5
3.4
3.0
22.0
20.6
2.2
2.1
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on December 23, 2015
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
December 24, 2015
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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