Market Outlook
December 23, 2015
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are expected to open positive tracking the SGX Nifty and Asian
BSE Sensex
(0.6)
(145)
25,591
peers.
Nifty
(0.6)
(48)
7,786
US indices ended the day firmly in positive territory but off their highs for the session.
Mid Cap
(0.3)
(35)
10,954
The strength on Wall Street partly reflected optimism about the possibility of further
Small Cap
(0.0)
(3)
11,623
Chinese stimulus following statements from government officials. At the end of the
Bankex
(0.4)
(76)
19,128
Chinese government's Central Economic Work Conference, officials said monetary
policy must be more "flexible" and fiscal policy more "forceful" to halt the country's
economic slowdown. An increase by the price of crude oil also generated some
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
buying interest, with crude for February delivery rising $0.33 to $36.14 a barrel in
Dow Jones
0.7
123
17,252
its first day as the front-month contract.
Nasdaq
0.9
46
4,969
European markets closed with mixed results as the gains and losses in Europe were
FTSE
(0.3)
(18)
6,035
rather modest, due to the light trading action. The approaching holiday season has
Nikkei
(0.2)
(29)
18,887
many investors away from their desks. Energy and resource stocks were among the
Hang Seng
0.2
38
21,830
best performing stocks.
Shanghai Com
0.3
9
3,652
Indian shares fell on profit taking Tuesday following the previous session's rally and
amid caution ahead of Christmas break. The Indian rupee traded higher in the
afternoon, extending its winning streak for the sixth consecutive session on continued
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
selling of the American currency by banks and exporters. The Indian indices ended
Advances
1,307
720
the choppy session on a lower note led by underperformance in Auto & IT stocks.
Declines
13,83
812
Unchanged
221
63
News & Result Analysis
Tata Steel in talks to sell UK unit to Greybull Capital
ONGC can convert `5,000cr loan given to OVL into equity
Volumes (` Cr)
Detailed analysis on Pg2
BSE
2,685
NSE
13,624
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
FII
287
(2,645)
(25,094)
Refer P4 onwards
MFs
38
2,519
59,414
Top Picks
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Axis Bank
Financials
Buy
447
630
41.0
Bergepaint
252
6.1
HCL Tech
IT
Buy
849
1,132
33.3
Gspl
136
5.3
ICICI Bank
Financials
Buy
260
354
36.4
Kailash
2
4.5
Ashok Leyland
Automobiles
Buy
88
111
25.6
Corpbank
42
4.4
Larsen & Toubro
Construction
Buy
1,280
1,646
28.6
Sreinfra
46
4.2
More Top Picks on Pg3
Key Upcoming Events
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Previous
Consensus
Date
Region
Event Description
Nationalum
41
(6.6)
Reading
Expectations
Dec 22
US
3QGDP
2.1%
1.9%
Marico
221
(4.2)
Dec 23
USA
New home sales
495K
500K
Geship
366
(3.3)
Dec 23
UK
3QGDP
2.3%
-
Indiacem
85
(3.1)
Dec 29
USA
CB Consumer Confidence (Dec)
90.4
92.9
Orientbank
136
(3.1)
As on December 22, 2015
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
December 23, 2015
Tata Steel in talks to sell UK unit to Greybull Capital
Britain's largest steelmaker has been trying to sell its long products unit, which
makes steel for use in construction, since last year - with increasing urgency as a
global steel crisis intensified and prices hit decade lows. In October Tata Steel said
it could axe about 1,200 jobs at its long products unit, which is based in
Scunthorpe, northeast England and employs some 4,700 people across Europe.
The news came as a huge blow to Britain's embattled steel sector. Including the
Tata cuts, the sector lost some 4,000 jobs in October alone, equivalent to about a
fifth of its workforce.
British steelmakers pay some of the highest energy costs and green taxes in the
world and are also struggling to compete with record Chinese steel imports, which
they say have been unfairly subsidised by the government.
Tata Steel has been forced to slash costs and cut thousands of jobs since 2007
when it bought Anglo-Dutch producer Corus for $13 billion, making its Europe's
second largest steelmaker. The company employs about 30,000 people across
Europe, including about 17,000 in Britain. We maintain our Neutral view on the
stock.
ONGC can convert `5,000cr loan given to OVL into equity
The Union Cabinet gave its approval for converting the `5,000cr loan extended by
state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) to its overseas investment
arm ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL) into equity. The approval for the investment by
ONGC is aimed at strengthening the capital base of ONGC Videsh. It will
enhance the ability of ONGC to undertake overseas exploration and production
business, thereby improving the energy security of the country.
The `5,000cr loan was given by ONGC to help OVL acquire a stake in a
Mozambique gas field. With an improved debt-to-equity ratio, OVL would be able
to independently raise funds on the strength of its balance sheet, rather than
relying on ONGC's financial status. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock
Economic and Political News
Current account deficit narrows to 1.6 per cent of GDP in Q2
India will be fastest growing economy over next 10 years: Harvard researchers
Government to bring a bill for mandatory national minimum wage
Corporate News
Essar Oil delisting faces 'technical' issues; referred to Sebi
Indian steelmakers may attract anti-dumping duty in Canada
MFs see rise in number of equity schemes with assets worth `10,000 cr
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
December 23, 2015
Top Picks ★★★★★
Large Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
To outpace battery industry growth due to better technological
Amara Raja Batteries
14,569
853
1,040
21.9
products leading to market share gains in both the automotive
OEM and replacement segments.
Earnings to grow strongly given the MHCV cyclical upturn.
Ashok Leyland
25,158
88
111
25.6
Focus on exports and LCV's provides additional growth
avenue.
Healthy pace of branch expansion, backed by distribution
Axis Bank
1,06,248
447
630
41.0
network, will be the driving force for the bank’s retail business
and overall earnings.
The stock is trading at attractive valuations and is factoring all
HCL Tech
1,19,662
849
1,132
33.3
the bad news.
Strong visibility for a robust 20% earnings trajectory, coupled
HDFC Bank
2,68,686
1,065
1,262
18.5
with high quality of earnings on account of high quality retail
business and strategic focus on highly rated corporates.
Due to its robust franchise and capital adequacy position, the
bank is well positioned to grow by at least a few percentage
ICICI Bank
1,50,820
260
354
36.4
points higher than the average industry growth rate from a
structural point of view.
Back on the growth trend, expect a long term growth of 14%
Infosys
2,48,897
1,084
1,306
20.5
to be a US$20bn in FY2020.
Well positioned to benefit from such expected gradual
recovery in the overall domestic capex cycle, given its presence
Larsen & Toubro
1,19,195
1,280
1,646
28.6
across various infrastructure segments, its execution
capabilities, and its strong balance sheet.
LICHF continues to grow its retail loan book at a healthy pace
with improvement in asset quality. We expect the company to
LIC Housing Finance
24,433
484
571
17.9
post a healthy loan book which is likely to reflect in a strong
earnings growth.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Mid Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favourable outlook for the AC industry to augur well for
Cooling products business which is out pacing the market
Blue Star
3,357
373
429
14.9
growth. EMPPAC division's profitability to improve once
operating environment turns around.
Change in business focus towards high-margin chronic &
Ipca labs
9,411
746
900
20.7
lifestyle segments and increasing penetration in Europe and
US
Economic recovery to have favourable impact on advertising &
circulation revenue growth. Further, the acquisition of a radio
Jagran Prakashan
5,131
157
169
7.7
business (Radio City) would also boost the company's revenue
growth.
Earnings boost on back of stable material prices and
Radico Khaitan
1,512
114
156
37.3
favourable pricing environment. Valuation discount to peers
provides additional comfort
Strong brands and distribution network would boost growth
Siyaram Silk Mills
1,064
1,135
1,354
19.3
going ahead. Stock currently trades at an inexpensive
valuation.
Structural shift in the Lighting industry towards LED lighting will
Surya Roshni
652
149
183
23.1
drive growth.
Source: Company, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
December 23, 2015
Key Upcoming Events
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
Dec 23, 2015
8:30PM
US
New home sales
Thousands
Nov
495.00
505.00
3:00PM
UK
GDP (YoY)
% Change
3Q F
2.30
2.30
Dec 24, 2015
7:00PM
US
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Dec 19
271.00
270.00
Dec 29, 2015
8:30PM
US
Consumer Confidence
S.A./ 1985=100
Dec
90.40
94.00
Jan 1, 2016
6:30AM
China
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Dec
49.60
49.80
Jan 4, 2016
2:25PM
Germany
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Dec F
53.00
--
3:00PM
UK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Dec
52.70
--
Jan 5, 2016
2:25PM
Germany
Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Dec
(13.00)
--
Jan 6, 2016
2:25PM
Germany
PMI Services
Value
Dec F
55.40
--
Jan 8, 2016
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Dec
(30.30)
--
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Dec
(24.43)
--
7:00PM
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Dec
211.00
200.00
7:00PM
US
Unnemployment rate
%
Dec
5.00
5.00
Jan 12, 2016
5:30PM
India
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Nov
9.80
--
3:00PM
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Nov
1.70
--
Jan 14, 2016
12:00PM
India
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
% Change
Dec
(1.99)
--
5:30PM
UK
BOE Announces rates
% Ratio
Jan 14
0.50
0.50
Jan 15, 2016
7:45PM
US
Industrial Production
%
Dec
(0.56)
--
Jan 19, 2016
3:00PM
UK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Dec
0.10
--
Jan 20, 2016
7:00PM
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Dec
1,173.00
--
7:00PM
US
Building permits
Thousands
Dec
1,289.00
--
3:00PM
UK
Jobless claims change
% Change
Dec
3.90
--
7:00PM
US
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Dec
--
--
Jan 21, 2016
3:30PM
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
%
Dec F
0.20
--
6:15PM
Euro Zone
ECB announces interest rates
%
Jan 21
0.05
--
Jan 28, 2016
12:30AM
US
FOMC rate decision
%
Jan 27
0.50
0.50
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
December 23, 2015
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
9.0
8.4
12.0
9.8
8.0
7.5
7.5
7.4
10.0
7.0
7.0
6.7
6.7
6.6
7.0
6.4
8.0
6.3
6.0
6.0
4.8
5.0
4.2
4.3
4.7
3.6
3.8
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.8
2.5
2.5
4.0
2.0
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
6.0
5.4
5.3
5.4
5.4
5.2
5.0
5.0
54.0
4.9
5.0
4.3
4.4
3.7
3.7
52.0
4.0
3.0
50.0
2.0
48.0
1.0
46.0
-
44.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
0.0
8.00
(5.0)
7.50
7.00
(10.0)
6.50
(15.0)
6.00
5.50
(20.0)
5.00
(25.0)
4.50
4.00
(30.0)
3.50
(35.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
December 23, 2015
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
6.9
5.3
6.0
4.7
4.7
4.0
2.9
2.3
2.2
1.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
1.0
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(4.1)
(4.5)
(6.0)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2015 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
7.3
8.0
6.8
6.0
4.7
4.7
4.0
2.5
2.5
2.6
1.4
1.5
2.0
1.2
0.6
(3.8)
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(3.0)
(6.0)
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
December 23, 2015
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
43,470
(7.1)
(9.6)
(11.9)
Russia
Micex
1,723
(5.0)
0.5
21.6
India
Nifty
7,786
(1.0)
(0.4)
(5.6)
China
Shanghai Composite
3,652
0.3
14.9
25.3
South Africa
Top 40
44,901
(5.9)
(4.7)
5.7
Mexico
Mexbol
43,329
(3.5)
(2.0)
1.1
Indonesia
LQ45
779
(0.0)
5.8
(12.5)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,643
(1.1)
(1.6)
(1.8)
Thailand
SET 50
802
(8.6)
(9.1)
(23.8)
USA
Dow Jones
17,417
(2.1)
4.5
(3.8)
UK
FTSE
6,083
(4.0)
0.8
(8.0)
Japan
Nikkei
18,887
(4.9)
4.8
9.4
Germany
DAX
10,489
(3.2)
6.6
8.4
France
CAC
4,568
(5.7)
0.9
7.7
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
www.angelbroking.com
Stock Watch
December 23, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis
Neutral
175
-
3,400
2,075
2,394
14.4
14.4
9.5
11.0
18.4
15.9
3.7
3.2
21.1
21.3
1.7
1.4
United Phosphorus
Buy
427
510
18,299
13,698
15,752
17.6
17.6
32.1
38.5
13.3
11.1
2.6
2.2
21.4
21.3
1.4
1.2
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Ashok Leyland
Buy
88
111
25,158
17,995
21,544
11.4
11.6
3.4
4.7
26.0
18.8
4.6
4.2
17.7
22.2
1.4
1.1
Bajaj Auto
Accumulate
2,476
2,728
71,650
23,695
27,298
21.3
20.4
134.6
151.5
18.4
16.3
5.9
5.0
31.8
30.6
2.6
2.2
Bharat Forge
Accumulate
865
943
20,129
7,867
8,881
20.0
20.3
34.4
41.0
25.1
21.1
4.9
4.0
21.1
20.9
2.7
2.3
Eicher Motors
Buy
16,076
19,036
43,652
15,379
16,498
15.6
16.6
473.2
574.8
34.0
28.0
12.6
9.4
36.7
33.2
2.8
2.5
Gabriel India
Accumulate
88
101
1,266
1,415
1,544
8.7
9.0
4.6
5.4
19.2
16.3
3.5
3.1
18.1
18.9
0.9
0.8
Hero Motocorp
Neutral
2,669
-
53,297
28,561
31,559
14.7
14.7
151.1
163.2
17.7
16.4
6.8
5.8
38.7
35.6
1.7
1.5
Jamna Auto Industries Neutral
128
-
1,023
1,292
1,486
9.3
9.8
6.0
7.5
21.4
17.1
4.4
3.7
20.7
21.8
0.9
0.8
L G Balakrishnan & Bros Neutral
512
-
804
1,254
1,394
11.6
11.8
35.9
41.7
14.3
12.3
1.9
1.7
13.5
13.8
0.7
0.7
Mahindra and Mahindra Buy
1,259
1,449
78,164
39,031
44,440
13.8
13.9
57.9
67.6
21.7
18.6
3.5
3.1
16.1
16.6
1.7
1.4
Maruti
Neutral
4,618
-
139,493
57,865
68,104
16.4
16.7
176.3
225.5
26.2
20.5
5.1
4.3
19.4
21.2
2.2
1.8
Minda Industries
Neutral
910
-
1,443
2,567
2,965
8.0
8.3
46.1
57.8
19.7
15.7
3.3
2.7
16.7
17.3
0.7
0.6
Motherson Sumi
Accumulate
287
313
37,962
39,343
45,100
8.8
9.1
10.1
12.5
28.4
23.0
9.0
7.1
35.3
34.4
1.0
0.9
Rane Brake Lining
Accumulate
340
366
269
454
511
11.1
11.4
23.8
28.1
14.3
12.1
2.0
1.8
14.2
15.3
0.7
0.7
Setco Automotive
Neutral
43
-
574
594
741
12.7
13.7
1.7
3.2
25.3
13.4
2.7
2.3
10.4
16.9
1.4
1.2
Tata Motors
Accumulate
378
402
109,093
255,254
301,772
12.9
13.4
23.7
37.3
15.9
10.1
1.9
1.6
7.4
12.1
0.6
0.5
TVS Motor
Buy
288
338
13,685
11,569
13,648
7.3
8.7
10.3
16.1
28.0
17.9
7.0
5.5
24.8
30.5
1.2
1.0
Amara Raja Batteries
Buy
853
1,040
14,569
4,892
5,871
17.4
17.6
28.8
37.1
29.6
23.0
6.9
5.5
23.4
24.1
2.9
2.4
Exide Industries
Accumulate
145
162
12,283
6,950
7,784
14.4
14.8
6.6
7.3
21.9
19.8
2.8
2.5
12.6
12.8
1.5
1.3
Apollo Tyres
Accumulate
152
171
7,727
12,146
12,689
16.8
16.0
21.2
19.0
7.2
8.0
1.2
1.0
16.5
13.0
0.7
0.8
Ceat
Accumulate
1,054
1,119
4,263
6,041
6,597
14.1
13.7
99.5
111.9
10.6
9.4
2.1
1.7
19.6
18.5
0.9
0.7
JK Tyres
Neutral
112
-
2,547
7,446
7,669
15.2
14.0
19.6
18.4
5.7
6.1
1.4
1.2
25.2
19.5
0.7
0.6
Swaraj Engines
Neutral
950
-
1,180
552
630
14.2
14.7
44.6
54.1
21.3
17.6
5.0
4.5
23.2
25.6
2.0
1.7
Subros
Neutral
109
-
653
1,268
1,488
11.6
11.9
3.7
6.6
29.4
16.5
2.0
1.8
6.8
11.4
0.8
0.7
Indag Rubber
Neutral
206
-
540
283
329
17.0
17.2
13.0
15.4
15.9
13.3
3.5
2.9
21.8
21.6
1.6
1.3
Capital Goods
ACE
Neutral
44
-
433
660
839
4.7
8.2
1.0
3.9
43.8
11.2
1.4
1.2
3.2
11.3
0.8
0.6
BEML
Neutral
1,262
-
5,257
3,277
4,006
6.0
8.9
29.2
64.3
43.2
19.6
2.4
2.2
5.7
11.7
1.7
1.3
Bharat Electronics
Accumulate
1,270
1,414
30,486
7,737
8,634
16.8
17.2
54.0
61.0
23.5
20.8
3.4
3.0
39.3
45.6
3.1
2.6
www.angelbroking.com
Stock Watch
December 23, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Capital Goods
Voltas
Buy
304
353
10,062
5,363
5,963
8.0
9.1
11.0
13.8
27.7
22.0
4.2
3.7
16.2
17.9
1.8
1.6
BGR Energy
Neutral
130
-
936
3,615
3,181
9.5
9.4
16.7
12.4
7.8
10.5
0.7
0.7
10.0
7.0
0.7
0.8
BHEL
Neutral
166
-
40,667
33,722
35,272
10.8
11.7
10.5
14.2
15.8
11.7
1.2
1.1
7.0
9.0
1.3
1.2
Blue Star
Accumulate
373
429
3,357
3,548
3,977
6.3
6.9
13.7
17.2
27.3
21.8
6.9
4.5
26.1
25.4
1.0
0.9
Crompton Greaves
Accumulate
186
204
11,686
13,484
14,687
4.9
6.2
4.5
7.1
41.4
26.3
2.9
2.7
7.2
10.8
1.0
0.9
Inox Wind
Buy
360
505
7,988
4,980
5,943
17.0
17.5
26.6
31.6
13.5
11.4
4.0
3.0
35.0
30.0
1.8
1.4
KEC International
Neutral
158
-
4,052
8,791
9,716
6.1
6.8
5.4
8.2
29.2
19.2
2.9
2.7
10.0
14.0
0.7
0.6
Thermax
Neutral
936
-
11,152
6,413
7,525
7.4
8.5
30.5
39.3
30.7
23.8
4.7
4.1
15.0
17.0
1.7
1.4
Cement
ACC
Buy
1,348
1,630
25,307
13,151
14,757
16.4
18.3
63.9
83.4
21.1
16.2
2.7
2.5
13.3
16.1
1.8
1.5
Ambuja Cements
Buy
200
233
31,038
11,564
12,556
19.4
20.7
8.9
10.1
22.5
19.8
2.8
2.7
12.8
13.8
2.3
2.1
HeidelbergCement
Neutral
77
-
1,748
1,772
1,926
13.3
15.4
1.0
3.0
77.2
25.7
2.0
1.8
2.6
7.9
1.6
1.3
India Cements
Buy
85
112
2,619
4,216
4,840
18.0
19.5
4.0
9.9
21.3
8.6
0.9
0.8
4.0
9.5
1.0
0.8
JK Cement
Buy
644
744
4,504
3,661
4,742
10.1
15.8
18.0
61.0
35.8
10.6
2.6
2.3
7.5
22.9
1.7
1.3
J K Lakshmi Cement
Buy
326
430
3,834
2,947
3,616
16.7
19.9
11.5
27.2
28.3
12.0
2.7
2.3
9.8
20.8
1.7
1.4
Mangalam Cements
Neutral
207
-
553
1,053
1,347
10.5
13.3
8.4
26.0
24.7
8.0
1.0
1.0
4.3
12.5
0.9
0.7
Orient Cement
Accumulate
160
183
3,270
1,854
2,524
21.2
22.2
7.7
11.1
20.7
14.4
3.0
2.6
13.3
15.7
2.5
1.8
Ramco Cements
Neutral
365
-
8,692
4,036
4,545
20.8
21.3
15.1
18.8
24.2
19.4
3.0
2.6
12.9
14.3
2.7
2.3
Shree Cement^
Neutral
10,842
-
37,772
7,150
8,742
26.7
28.6
228.0
345.5
47.6
31.4
7.0
5.9
15.7
20.3
5.0
4.0
UltraTech Cement
Buy
2,798
3,282
76,775
25,021
30,023
19.1
21.6
89.0
132.0
31.4
21.2
3.6
3.2
12.2
15.9
3.1
2.6
Construction
ITNL
Neutral
83
-
2,716
7,360
8,825
34.0
35.9
7.0
9.0
11.8
9.2
0.4
0.4
3.2
3.7
3.7
3.6
KNR Constructions
Buy
585
673
1,644
937
1,470
14.3
14.0
33.5
38.6
17.5
15.1
2.6
2.3
15.4
15.4
1.8
1.2
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,280
1,646
119,195
65,065
77,009
11.5
11.7
61.5
65.6
20.8
19.5
2.1
1.9
13.4
14.0
2.0
1.7
Gujarat Pipavav Port
Neutral
147
-
7,116
629
684
51.0
52.2
6.4
5.9
23.0
25.0
3.0
2.8
15.9
12.7
11.0
9.9
MBL Infrastructures
Buy
216
285
897
2,313
2,797
12.2
14.6
19.0
20.0
11.4
10.8
1.2
1.1
11.3
10.6
1.1
1.0
Nagarjuna Const.
Neutral
75
-
4,186
7,892
8,842
8.8
9.1
3.0
5.3
25.1
14.2
1.3
1.2
5.0
8.5
0.8
0.6
PNC Infratech
Neutral
539
-
2,764
1,873
2,288
13.2
13.5
24.0
32.0
22.5
16.8
2.2
1.9
12.1
12.3
1.6
1.3
Simplex Infra
Neutral
334
-
1,653
5,955
6,829
10.3
10.5
16.0
31.0
20.9
10.8
1.1
1.0
5.3
9.9
0.8
0.7
Power Mech Projects
Neutral
633
-
931
1,539
1,801
12.8
12.7
59.0
72.1
10.7
8.8
1.6
1.4
18.6
16.8
0.6
0.5
Sadbhav Engineering
Neutral
338
-
5,794
3,481
4,219
10.7
10.8
8.0
12.0
42.2
28.2
3.9
3.5
10.3
13.5
1.9
1.6
www.angelbroking.com
Stock Watch
December 23, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Construction
NBCC
Accumulate
1,006
1,089
12,075
7,382
9,506
7.7
8.6
39.8
54.4
25.3
18.5
6.1
4.8
26.7
29.1
1.4
1.0
SIPL
Neutral
98
-
3,455
675
1,042
62.4
64.7
-
-
3.7
4.2
-
-
16.8
11.3
Financials
Allahabad Bank
Neutral
71
-
4,237
8,569
9,392
2.8
2.9
16.3
27.5
4.3
2.6
0.4
0.3
7.6
11.9
-
-
Axis Bank
Buy
447
630
106,248
26,473
31,527
3.5
3.6
35.7
43.5
12.5
10.3
2.4
2.1
17.9
18.9
-
-
Bank of Baroda
Neutral
157
-
36,210
18,485
21,025
1.9
2.0
13.5
21.1
11.7
7.4
0.9
0.8
7.3
10.6
-
-
Bank of India
Neutral
116
-
9,222
15,972
17,271
1.9
2.0
15.3
33.4
7.6
3.5
0.3
0.3
3.6
7.6
-
-
Canara Bank
Neutral
239
-
13,002
15,441
16,945
2.0
2.1
46.6
70.4
5.1
3.4
0.5
0.4
8.0
11.2
-
-
Dena Bank
Neutral
42
-
2,678
3,440
3,840
2.1
2.3
7.3
10.0
5.7
4.1
0.4
0.4
6.1
7.9
-
-
Federal Bank
Neutral
56
-
9,643
3,477
3,999
3.0
3.0
5.0
6.2
11.2
9.0
1.1
1.0
10.6
11.9
-
-
HDFC
Neutral
1,226
-
193,520
10,358
11,852
3.3
3.3
41.1
47.0
29.9
26.1
5.7
5.2
24.7
24.9
-
-
HDFC Bank
Buy
1,065
1,262
268,686
38,309
47,302
4.3
4.3
49.3
61.1
21.6
17.4
3.7
3.2
18.5
19.7
-
-
ICICI Bank
Buy
260
354
150,820
34,279
39,262
3.3
3.3
21.0
24.4
12.4
10.7
2.1
1.8
14.4
14.7
-
-
IDBI Bank
Neutral
89
-
14,275
9,625
10,455
1.8
1.8
8.5
14.2
10.4
6.3
0.7
0.6
5.9
9.3
-
-
Indian Bank
Neutral
114
-
5,473
6,160
6,858
2.5
2.5
24.5
29.8
4.7
3.8
0.4
0.3
7.7
8.6
-
-
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
484
571
24,433
3,101
3,745
2.5
2.5
33.0
40.2
14.7
12.1
2.7
2.3
19.7
20.5
-
-
Oriental Bank
Neutral
136
-
4,091
7,643
8,373
2.4
2.4
37.2
45.4
3.7
3.0
0.3
0.3
8.2
9.4
-
-
Punjab Natl.Bank
Neutral
121
-
23,701
23,638
26,557
2.8
2.8
17.9
27.2
6.8
4.4
0.7
0.6
8.5
12.0
-
-
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
19
-
2,613
1,965
2,185
2.5
2.5
2.5
3.3
7.8
5.9
0.8
0.7
9.5
11.7
-
-
St Bk of India
Buy
228
283
177,224
82,520
93,299
2.7
2.8
20.0
24.5
11.4
9.3
1.2
1.1
11.5
12.8
-
-
Union Bank
Neutral
151
-
10,401
12,646
14,129
2.3
2.4
31.0
39.1
4.9
3.9
0.5
0.4
9.8
11.4
-
-
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
34
-
2,942
3,536
3,827
1.9
1.9
5.5
6.7
6.2
5.2
0.5
0.5
7.8
8.8
-
-
Yes Bank
Buy
714
921
29,915
7,190
9,011
3.2
3.3
58.2
69.7
12.3
10.2
2.2
1.9
19.2
19.6
-
-
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
880
-
84,381
16,553
19,160
16.0
16.2
17.7
21.5
49.8
40.9
13.2
11.9
29.4
31.2
4.9
4.3
Britannia
Neutral
2,917
-
35,001
8,065
9,395
9.6
10.2
47.2
65.5
61.8
44.5
20.5
19.4
38.3
41.2
4.2
3.6
Colgate
Neutral
989
-
26,903
4,836
5,490
19.5
19.7
48.5
53.2
20.4
18.6
15.0
13.0
99.8
97.5
5.5
4.8
Dabur India
Neutral
278
-
48,974
9,370
10,265
17.1
17.2
7.3
8.1
38.0
34.4
11.5
9.3
33.7
30.6
5.1
4.7
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
6,741
-
28,348
4,919
5,742
17.2
17.4
168.3
191.2
40.1
35.3
11.4
9.7
28.8
28.9
5.3
4.5
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
1,317
-
44,841
10,168
12,886
16.1
16.1
32.1
38.4
41.0
34.3
8.3
7.7
19.7
21.0
4.5
3.5
HUL
Neutral
852
-
184,254
34,940
38,957
17.5
17.7
20.8
24.7
40.9
34.5
45.5
36.4
110.5
114.2
5.1
4.5
www.angelbroking.com
Stock Watch
December 23, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FMCG
ITC
Buy
320
382
257,400
41,068
45,068
37.8
37.4
13.9
15.9
23.0
20.2
7.7
6.8
34.1
33.8
5.9
5.3
Marico
Buy
221
363
28,558
6,551
7,766
15.7
16.0
10.4
12.5
21.3
17.7
6.2
5.2
33.2
32.4
4.3
3.6
Nestle*
Buy
5,732
6,646
55,261
11,291
12,847
22.2
22.3
158.9
184.6
36.1
31.1
18.9
17.0
55.0
57.3
4.7
4.1
Tata Global
Neutral
141
-
8,912
8,635
9,072
9.8
9.9
6.5
7.6
21.7
18.6
2.2
2.1
6.8
7.4
1.0
0.9
IT
HCL Tech^
Buy
849
1,132
119,662
42,038
47,503
23.2
23.5
55.8
62.9
15.2
13.5
3.5
2.7
23.0
19.8
2.5
2.0
Infosys
Buy
1,084
1,306
248,897
60,250
66,999
28.0
28.0
58.3
63.7
18.6
17.0
3.9
3.3
20.9
19.7
3.4
2.9
TCS
Buy
2,406
3,165
474,075
111,274
126,852
28.4
28.7
125.4
143.9
19.2
16.7
7.6
7.0
39.9
42.2
3.9
3.3
Tech Mahindra
Buy
520
646
50,230
25,566
28,890
16.0
17.0
26.3
31.9
19.8
16.3
3.6
3.0
17.9
18.6
1.7
1.5
Wipro
Buy
556
719
137,266
52,414
58,704
23.7
23.8
38.4
42.3
14.5
13.1
2.8
2.5
19.5
18.0
2.2
1.8
Media
D B Corp
Accumulate
326
356
5,982
2,241
2,495
27.8
27.9
21.8
25.6
15.0
12.7
3.9
3.4
26.7
28.5
2.6
2.3
HT Media
Neutral
86
-
2,005
2,495
2,603
11.2
11.2
7.3
8.6
11.8
10.0
0.9
0.8
7.4
8.1
0.3
0.3
Jagran Prakashan
Accumulate
157
169
5,131
2,170
2,355
27.2
26.2
8.9
9.9
17.6
15.9
3.7
3.2
20.9
20.5
2.3
2.1
Sun TV Network
Neutral
388
-
15,273
2,779
3,196
70.2
70.5
22.8
27.3
17.0
14.2
4.2
3.8
26.7
28.3
5.2
4.5
Hindustan Media
Neutral
288
-
2,110
920
1,031
20.0
20.0
19.2
20.9
15.0
13.8
2.5
2.1
16.4
15.3
1.8
1.6
Ventures
Metals & Mining
Coal India
Buy
319
380
201,587
76,167
84,130
19.9
22.3
22.4
25.8
14.2
12.4
5.1
5.0
35.5
41.0
2.0
1.8
Hind. Zinc
Buy
145
175
61,056
14,641
14,026
50.4
50.4
17.7
16.0
8.2
9.0
1.3
1.1
16.2
13.2
1.8
1.6
Hindalco
Neutral
80
-
16,417
104,356
111,186
8.7
9.5
6.7
11.1
11.8
7.2
0.4
0.4
3.5
5.9
0.7
0.6
JSW Steel
Neutral
1,039
-
25,106
42,308
45,147
16.4
20.7
(10.3)
49.5
21.0
1.2
1.1
(1.0)
5.6
1.6
1.5
NMDC
Neutral
89
-
35,326
8,237
10,893
46.6
44.5
10.0
11.7
9.0
7.6
1.0
0.9
12.5
13.0
4.1
3.1
SAIL
Neutral
48
-
19,659
45,915
53,954
7.2
10.5
1.5
4.4
31.6
10.9
0.5
0.5
2.3
4.1
1.1
1.0
Vedanta
Neutral
86
-
25,511
71,445
81,910
26.2
26.3
12.9
19.2
6.7
4.5
0.5
0.4
7.2
8.9
0.8
0.6
Tata Steel
Neutral
257
-
24,980
126,760
137,307
8.9
11.3
6.4
23.1
40.4
11.2
0.8
0.8
2.0
7.1
0.8
0.7
Oil & Gas
Cairn India
Neutral
133
-
24,983
11,323
12,490
49.4
51.0
20.7
20.7
6.4
6.5
0.4
0.4
6.4
6.1
1.3
0.6
GAIL
Neutral
339
-
42,944
64,856
70,933
9.1
9.6
24.0
28.9
14.1
11.7
1.2
1.1
8.8
9.6
0.8
0.8
ONGC
Neutral
231
-
197,375
154,564
167,321
36.8
37.4
28.6
32.5
8.1
7.1
1.0
0.9
12.7
13.5
1.5
1.4
Petronet LNG
Neutral
241
-
18,068
29,691
31,188
5.8
6.2
12.8
13.4
18.8
17.9
2.8
2.5
15.8
14.8
0.7
0.6
Indian Oil Corp
Accumulate
433
455
105,045
359,607
402,760
5.9
6.1
42.5
48.7
10.2
8.9
1.4
1.2
14.1
14.4
0.4
0.4
Reliance Industries
Accumulate
988
1,050
319,872
304,775
344,392
12.6
13.4
91.3
102.6
10.8
9.6
1.2
1.1
11.8
12.0
1.0
0.8
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
671
-
12,642
2,658
3,112
24.1
20.2
24.6
23.9
27.3
28.1
9.8
7.5
42.5
30.2
4.8
4.0
www.angelbroking.com
Stock Watch
December 23, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Pharmaceuticals
Aurobindo Pharma
Neutral
841
-
49,085
14,923
17,162
23.0
23.0
38.2
43.6
22.0
19.3
6.8
5.1
36.0
30.2
3.6
3.1
Aventis*
Neutral
4,375
-
10,075
2,082
2,371
17.4
20.8
118.2
151.5
37.0
28.9
5.4
4.4
19.9
25.5
4.5
3.8
Cadila Healthcare
Neutral
391
-
39,998
10,224
11,840
21.0
22.0
14.6
17.6
26.8
22.2
7.3
5.7
30.8
29.0
4.0
3.3
Cipla
Neutral
644
-
51,741
14,211
16,611
20.6
19.0
27.0
28.9
23.9
22.3
4.1
3.5
18.4
16.8
3.6
3.0
Dr Reddy's
Buy
3,002
3,933
51,188
16,838
19,575
25.0
23.1
167.5
178.8
17.9
16.8
3.8
3.2
23.1
20.4
3.0
2.5
Dishman Pharma
Neutral
322
-
2,598
1,733
1,906
21.5
21.5
17.0
19.9
18.9
16.2
1.9
1.7
10.5
11.2
2.0
1.7
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
3,262
-
27,627
2,870
3,158
20.0
22.1
59.5
68.3
54.8
47.8
16.2
16.6
28.5
34.3
9.1
8.3
Indoco Remedies
Neutral
325
-
2,995
1,033
1,199
15.9
18.2
9.4
13.6
34.6
23.9
5.1
4.4
15.7
19.7
3.0
2.6
Ipca labs
Buy
746
900
9,411
3,363
3,909
12.9
18.6
13.4
28.0
55.7
26.6
4.0
3.5
7.4
14.0
3.1
2.7
Lupin
Neutral
1,786
-
80,430
13,092
16,561
25.0
27.0
50.4
68.3
35.4
26.2
7.3
5.8
22.8
24.7
5.9
4.5
Sun Pharma
Buy
764
950
183,901
28,163
32,610
25.8
30.7
17.4
26.9
43.9
28.4
4.2
3.6
13.0
16.6
6.0
5.0
Power
Tata Power
Neutral
65
-
17,648
35,923
37,402
22.6
22.8
4.1
5.2
16.1
12.7
1.2
1.2
7.5
9.3
1.4
1.3
NTPC
Accumulate
137
157
112,922
87,064
98,846
23.5
23.5
11.7
13.2
11.7
10.4
1.3
1.2
11.4
12.1
2.3
2.1
Power Grid
Buy
138
170
72,353
20,702
23,361
86.7
86.4
12.1
13.2
11.5
10.5
1.7
1.5
15.6
15.1
8.4
7.8
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
323
-
129,196
101,748
109,191
32.1
31.7
12.0
12.5
26.9
25.9
1.9
1.7
6.9
6.7
1.9
1.7
Idea Cellular
Neutral
139
-
50,184
34,282
36,941
32.0
31.5
5.9
6.2
23.6
22.5
2.2
2.0
9.9
9.3
2.0
1.9
zOthers
Abbott India
Neutral
5,705
-
12,122
2,715
3,153
14.5
14.1
134.3
152.2
42.5
37.5
10.6
8.7
27.4
25.6
4.2
3.5
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
213
290
2,155
4,719
5,287
5.2
5.8
8.6
12.7
24.9
16.9
2.9
2.5
11.4
14.8
0.5
0.4
Finolex Cables
Neutral
250
-
3,826
2,520
2,883
12.2
12.0
12.7
14.2
19.7
17.6
2.7
2.4
13.6
13.5
1.3
1.1
Goodyear India*
Accumulate
572
622
1,319
1,888
1,680
12.1
11.9
62.2
56.6
9.2
10.1
2.2
1.8
25.9
19.7
0.5
0.5
Hitachi
Neutral
1,386
-
3,768
1,779
2,081
7.8
8.8
21.8
33.4
63.6
41.5
10.3
8.3
17.4
22.1
2.2
1.8
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
300
-
5,433
1,620
1,847
11.5
11.5
7.3
8.5
41.2
35.4
5.3
4.9
13.3
14.4
3.2
2.7
MRF
Buy
39,183
45,575
16,618
20,316
14,488
21.4
21.1
5,488.0
3,798.0
7.1
10.3
2.4
2.0
41.1
21.2
0.8
1.0
Page Industries
Neutral
12,770
-
14,243
1,929
2,450
19.8
20.1
229.9
299.0
55.6
42.7
24.5
17.0
52.1
47.1
7.4
5.8
Relaxo Footwears
Neutral
486
-
5,828
1,767
2,152
12.3
12.5
19.3
25.1
25.2
19.4
6.2
4.8
27.7
27.8
3.4
2.7
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
1,135
1,354
1,064
1,636
1,815
11.5
11.5
89.9
104.1
12.6
10.9
2.1
1.8
17.9
17.8
0.8
0.7
Styrolution ABS India*
Neutral
724
-
1,274
1,271
1,440
8.6
9.2
32.0
41.1
22.6
17.6
2.3
2.1
10.7
12.4
1.0
0.8
TVS Srichakra
Buy
2,793
3,240
2,139
2,101
2,338
15.7
15.0
248.6
270.0
11.2
10.3
4.9
3.5
43.6
34.0
1.1
0.9
HSIL
Neutral
299
-
2,159
2,123
2,384
16.1
16.5
15.0
18.9
19.9
15.8
1.5
1.4
8.0
9.4
1.4
1.2
www.angelbroking.com
Stock Watch
December 23, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E FY17E
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
zOthers
Kirloskar Engines India
Neutral
242
-
3,503
2,471
2,826
8.8
10.4
9.1
13.3
26.5
18.2
2.5
2.4
9.7
13.4
1.1
0.9
Ltd
M M Forgings
Buy
510
614
615
511
615
21.7
21.6
43.1
55.8
11.8
9.1
2.2
1.8
19.9
21.2
1.4
1.1
Banco Products (India) Neutral
140
-
999
1,208
1,353
11.0
12.3
10.8
14.5
13.0
9.7
1.5
1.3
11.9
14.5
0.8
0.7
Competent Automobiles Neutral
152
-
93
1,040
1,137
3.2
3.1
25.7
28.0
5.9
5.4
0.9
0.8
15.0
14.3
0.1
0.1
Nilkamal
Neutral
1,217
-
1,816
1,910
2,083
10.5
10.3
63.3
69.2
19.2
17.6
3.1
2.7
17.6
16.5
1.0
0.9
Visaka Industries
Accumulate
128
144
204
1,086
1,197
9.9
10.3
21.5
28.8
6.0
4.5
0.6
0.5
9.6
11.6
0.4
0.3
Transport Corporation of
Neutral
300
-
2,284
2,830
3,350
8.8
9.0
14.4
18.3
20.9
16.4
3.2
2.8
15.4
17.1
0.9
0.8
India
Elecon Engineering
Neutral
87
-
943
1,369
1,533
13.7
14.9
3.3
6.1
26.1
14.3
1.7
1.6
6.6
11.4
1.0
0.9
Surya Roshni
Buy
149
183
652
2,992
3,223
8.1
8.4
14.7
18.3
10.1
8.1
0.9
0.9
9.7
11.0
0.5
0.5
MT Educare
Neutral
176
-
699
286
366
18.3
17.7
7.7
9.4
22.7
18.8
4.8
4.2
20.2
21.1
2.3
1.8
Radico Khaitan
Buy
114
156
1,512
1,565
1,687
12.2
13.0
5.7
7.1
19.9
16.0
1.7
1.5
8.3
9.6
1.4
1.3
Garware Wall Ropes
Accumulate
397
423
868
861
967
10.9
10.9
24.0
28.2
16.5
14.1
2.4
2.1
14.6
14.9
1.0
0.9
Wonderla Holidays
Neutral
415
-
2,342
206
308
44.0
43.6
9.0
12.9
46.1
32.1
6.3
5.7
13.7
17.8
11.3
7.5
Linc Pen & Plastics
Neutral
216
-
320
340
371
8.3
8.9
10.8
13.2
20.0
16.4
3.2
2.8
16.0
17.1
1.0
0.9
The Byke Hospitality
Neutral
150
-
602
222
287
20.5
20.5
5.6
7.6
26.6
19.9
5.0
4.1
18.9
20.8
2.7
2.1
Interglobe Aviation
Neutral
1,165
-
41,973
17,022
21,122
20.7
14.5
63.9
53.7
18.2
21.7
27.3
22.4
149.9
103.2
2.5
2.0
Coffee Day Enterprises
Neutral
283
-
5,827
2,692
2,964
17.0
18.6
-
4.7
-
59.7
3.5
3.3
0.2
5.5
2.6
2.4
Ltd
Navneet Education
Accumulate
85
97
2,036
998
1,062
24.1
24.0
5.8
6.1
14.9
14.0
3.3
2.9
22.0
20.6
2.1
2.0
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on December 22, 2015
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
December 23, 2015
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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