Market Outlook
February 22, 2016
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are expected to open flat tracking the SGX Nifty and Asian peers.
BSE Sensex
0.3
60
23,709
Nifty
0.3
19
7,211
U.S. markets turned lower on Friday on lingering concerns about the slump in oil
prices and uncertain prospects for the global economy.
Mid Cap
(0.1)
(12)
9,803
Small Cap
0.2
16
9,877
The European markets finished firmly in the red on Friday as the renewed decline in
Bankex
0.3
53
16,274
oil prices and mixed performance in markets overseas weighed on investor
sentiment.
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian shares closed marginally higher on Friday after some initial flip-flop, as an oil
rally fizzled out and sentiment turned cautious globally following recent sharp gains.
Dow Jones
(0.1)
(21)
16,392
Nasdaq
0.4
17
4,504
News & Result Analysis
FTSE
(0.4)
(22)
5,950
Maruti Suzuki suspends production at Haryana units owing to Jat protests
Nikkei
(1.4)
(230)
15,967
Cement realisations of major companies fall by 1.8-2% in the December 2015
quarter
Hang Seng
(0.4)
(78)
19,286
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Shanghai Com
(0.1)
(3)
2,860
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Advances
1,283
929
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Declines
1,236
603
Refer P4 onwards
Unchanged
137
71
Top Picks
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
Volumes (` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Amara Raja Batteries Auto & Auto Ancillary
Buy
885
1,040
17.5
BSE
1,907
HCL Tech
IT
Buy
850
1,038
22.1
NSE
12,602
LIC Housing Finance Financials
Buy
420
592
41.0
Bharat Electronics
Capital Goods
Buy
1,130
1,414
25.2
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Navkar Corporation Others
Buy
160
265
65.6
FII
(294)
(5,263)
(17,592)
More Top Picks on Pg3
MFs
173
2,092
79,775
Key Upcoming Events
Previous
Consensus
Date
Region
Event Description
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Reading
Expectations
Feb 22 Germany
PMI Services
55.0
-
Fortis
175
11.7
Feb 22 Germany
PMI Manufacturing
52.3
-
Sintex
75
7.0
Feb 23 Germany
GDP (YoY)
2.10
-
Unitdspr
2,405
6.1
Feb 23 US
Consumer Confidence
98.1
97.5
Pnb
76
5.1
6.(
Religare
298
4.9
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Unitech
4
(5.5)
Hindpetro
665
(5.0)
Ioc
373
(4.8)
Mphasis
421
(4.7)
Godrejprop
275
(3.6)
As on February 19, 2016
Market Outlook
February 22, 2016
Maruti Suzuki suspends production at Haryana units owing to Jat
protests
Widespread protests by Jats seeking caste-based reservations in several parts of
Haryana has crippled the supply of components to automakers, forcing players
like Maruti Suzuki to temporarily suspend production at its two plants in the state.
The company has suspended production at its Gurgaon and Manesar plants
starting Saturday afternoon. The company is making efforts to arrange the
components from other sources. It will resume operations once the supply of
components is restored. The combined output from Manesar and Gurgaon is
about 5,000 vehicles per day.
Cement realisations of major companies fall by 1.8-2% in the
December 2015 quarter
Cement realisations of major cement companies fell by 1.8-2% in the December
2015 qoq. Weak cement demand and sharp focus of cement companies which
can afford to take cut in cement prices due to low cost of cement production have
impacted cement realisations in the December quarter.
Companies in southern region recorded a healthy growth in realisation despite
subdued demand. Eastern and central regions showed a massive decline in prices.
Cement prices in northern region also remained weak.
Going ahead, cement demand is expected to improve in the second half of the
next fiscal. However, only a few companies which have advantage of low cost of
cement production would benefit.
Economic and Political News
Banks in Odisha clock 63% of credit target by Dec
Make In India Week: Odisha bags `70,959 cr investment commitments
HSIIDC signs MoU for setting up of electronics cluster in Haryana
Corporate News
Neyveli Lignite bags Talabira II, III coal blocks
ONGC board approves `5,050 crore investment in Tripura
Honda to recall 57,676 units of City, Jazz, Civic in India
Market Outlook
February 22, 2016
Top Picks ★★★★★
Large Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
To outpace battery industry growth due to better technological
Amara Raja Batteries
15,118
885
1,040
17.5
products leading to market share gains in both the automotive
OEM and replacement segments.
Earnings to grow strongly given the MHCV cyclical upturn.
Ashok Leyland
25,954
91
111
21.7
Focus on exports and LCV's provides additional growth
avenue.
Uptick in defense capex by government when coupled with
Bharat Electronics
27,114
1,130
1,414
25.2
BELs strong market positioning, indicate that good times are
ahead for BEL.
The stock is trading at attractive valuations and is factoring all
HCL Tech
1,19,820
850
1,038
22.1
the bad news.
Strong visibility for a robust 20% earnings trajectory, coupled
HDFC Bank
2,49,591
988
1,262
27.7
with high quality of earnings on account of high quality retail
business and strategic focus on highly rated corporates.
Back on the growth trend, expect a long term growth of 14%
Infosys
2,58,533
1,126
1,347
19.7
to be a US$20bn in FY2020.
LICHF continues to grow its retail loan book at a healthy pace
with improvement in asset quality. We expect the company to
LIC Housing Finance
21,171
420
592
41.0
post a healthy loan book which is likely to reflect in a strong
earnings growth.
Huge bid pipeline of re-development works at Delhi and other
NBCC
10,330
861
1,089
26.5
State Governments and opportunity from Smart City, positions
NBCC to report strong growth, going forward.
New launches to enable outpace industry growth; margins
TVS Motors
13,656
287
330
14.8
expansion to boost earnings.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Mid Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favourable outlook for the AC industry to augur well for
Cooling products business which is out pacing the market
Blue Star
2,937
327
439
34.4
growth. EMPPAC division's profitability to improve once
operating environment turns around.
Economic recovery to have favourable impact on advertising &
circulation revenue growth. Further, the acquisition of a radio
Jagran Prakashan
4,936
151
189
25.2
business (Radio City) would also boost the company's revenue
growth.
Massive capacity expansion along with rail advantage at ICD
Navkar Corporation
2,282
160
265
65.6
as well CFS augurs well for the company
Earnings boost on back of stable material prices and
Radico Khaitan
1,327
100
156
56.4
favourable pricing environment. Valuation discount to peers
provides additional comfort
Strong brands and distribution network would boost growth
Siyaram Silk Mills
919
981
1,354
38.1
going ahead. Stock currently trades at an inexpensive
valuation.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
February 22, 2016
Key Upcoming Events
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
Feb 22, 2016 2:00PM
Germany
PMI Services
Value
Feb P
55.00
54.80
2:00PM
Germany
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Feb P
52.30
52.00
Feb 23, 2016 12:30PM
Germany
GDP nsa (YoY)
% Change
4Q F
2.10
2.10
8:30PM
US
Existing home sales
Million
Jan
5.46
5.40
8:30PM
US
Consumer Confidence
S.A./ 1985=100
Feb
98.10
97.50
Feb 24, 2016 8:30PM
US
New home sales
Thousands
Jan
544.00
520.00
Feb 25, 2016 7:00PM
US
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Feb 20
262.00
--
3:00PM
UK
GDP (YoY)
% Change
4Q P
1.90
1.90
3:30PM
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
%
Jan F
0.40
0.40
Feb 26, 2016 7:00PM
US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
4Q S
0.70
0.50
Mar 1, 2016
3:00PM
UK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Feb
52.90
--
6:30AM
China
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Feb
49.40
--
2:25PM
Germany
Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Feb
(20.00)
--
Mar 4, 2016
7:00PM
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Feb
151.00
--
7:00PM
US
Unnemployment rate
%
Feb
4.90
--
Mar 8, 2016
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Feb
(11.20)
--
3:30PM
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
% Change
4Q P
0.30
--
Mar 9, 2016
3:00PM
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Jan
(0.40)
--
Mar 10, 2016 7:00AM
China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Feb
1.80
--
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Feb
(11.00)
--
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Feb
(13.60)
--
6:15PM
Euro Zone
ECB announces interest rates
%
Mar 10
0.05
--
Mar 14, 2016 12:00PM
India
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
% Change
Feb
(0.90)
--
5:30PM
India
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Jan
(1.30)
--
Mar 15, 2016
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Feb
(0.50)
--
Mar 16, 2016 6:00PM
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Feb
1,099.00
--
6:00PM
US
Building permits
Thousands
Feb
1,202.00
--
3:00PM
UK
Jobless claims change
% Change
Feb
(14.80)
--
6:45PM
US
Industrial Production
%
Feb
0.92
--
11:30PM
US
FOMC rate decision
%
Mar 16
0.50
0.50
Mar 17, 2016 5:30PM
UK
BOE Announces rates
% Ratio
Mar 17
0.50
0.50
Mar 22, 2016 3:00PM
UK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Feb
0.30
--
Apr 5, 2016
11:00AM
India
RBI Reverse Repo rate
%
Apr 5
5.75
--
11:00AM
India
RBI Repo rate
%
Apr 5
6.75
--
11:00AM
India
RBI Cash Reserve ratio
%
Apr 5
4.00
--
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
February 22, 2016
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
9.0
8.4
12.0
9.9
7.5
7.5
10.0
8.0
7.4
7.3
7.0
7.0
6.7
6.7
6.6
8.0
6.3
7.0
6.4
6.0
4.8
4.3
4.2
3.8
6.0
2.8
3.0
4.0
2.5
2.5
4.7
5.0
2.0
(3.2)
-
4.0
(2.0)
3.0
(4.0)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
6.0
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.6
5.2
5.3
54.0
4.9
5.0
5.0
5.0
4.4
3.7
3.7
52.0
4.0
3.0
50.0
2.0
48.0
1.0
46.0
-
44.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
0.0
8.00
(5.0)
7.50
7.00
(10.0)
6.50
(15.0)
6.00
5.50
(20.0)
5.00
(25.0)
4.50
4.00
(30.0)
3.50
(35.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
February 22, 2016
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
6.8
5.3
6.0
5.0
4.7
4.0
2.9
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.3
1.6
2.0
1.0
(4.5)
(4.1)
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(6.0)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2015 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
7.3
8.0
6.8
6.0
4.7
4.7
4.0
2.5
2.5
2.6
1.4
1.5
2.0
1.2
0.6
(3.0)
(3.8)
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(6.0)
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Market Outlook
February 22, 2016
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
41,543
7.7
(11.7)
(15.9)
Russia
Micex
1,793
10.0
0.3
(0.9)
India
Nifty
7,211
(3.0)
(6.7)
(18.1)
China
Shanghai Composite
2,860
(3.0)
(20.1)
(9.9)
South Africa
Top 40
43,474
4.5
(6.4)
(6.9)
Mexico
Mexbol
43,375
6.3
(2.5)
0.3
Indonesia
LQ45
820
4.9
7.5
(11.4)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,675
2.5
0.7
(7.5)
Thailand
SET 50
844
8.9
(5.4)
(20.2)
USA
Dow Jones
16,392
2.3
(6.2)
(9.6)
UK
FTSE
5,950
4.9
(5.2)
(13.9)
Japan
Nikkei
15,967
(6.3)
(18.5)
(9.5)
Germany
DAX
9,388
(0.0)
(14.4)
(15.7)
France
CAC
4,223
2.4
(14.1)
(14.0)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Stock Watch
February 22, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis
Neutral
151
-
2,939
2,097
2,415
14.4
14.4
9.5
11.0
15.9
13.7
3.2
2.7
21.1
21.3
1.4
1.2
United Phosphorus
Buy
398
480
17,043
12,500
14,375
18.3
18.3
29.8
35.9
13.3
11.1
2.5
2.1
20.0
20.3
1.5
1.2
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Ashok Leyland
Buy
91
111
25,954
17,995
21,544
11.4
11.6
3.4
4.7
26.8
19.4
4.7
4.3
17.7
22.2
1.4
1.1
Bajaj Auto
Accumulate
2,457
2,585
71,097
22,709
25,860
20.9
20.1
129.0
143.6
19.1
17.1
5.8
5.0
30.7
29.4
2.7
2.3
Bharat Forge
Buy
771
943
17,951
7,867
8,881
20.0
20.3
34.4
41.0
22.4
18.8
4.3
3.6
21.1
20.9
2.4
2.1
Eicher Motors
Accumulate
18,626
20,044
50,592
15,556
16,747
15.5
17.3
464.8
597.5
40.1
31.2
14.6
10.8
36.2
34.3
3.2
2.9
Gabriel India
Buy
80
101
1,143
1,415
1,544
8.7
9.0
4.6
5.4
17.3
14.7
3.1
2.8
18.1
18.9
0.8
0.7
Hero Motocorp
Accumulate
2,705
2,864
54,012
28,244
30,532
15.5
15.9
156.7
168.5
17.3
16.1
6.9
5.9
39.9
36.4
1.8
1.6
Jamna Auto Industries Buy
129
160
1,034
1,281
1,473
11.2
11.5
7.6
9.2
17.0
14.1
4.3
3.5
25.4
25.2
0.9
0.7
L G Balakrishnan & Bros Neutral
416
-
653
1,254
1,394
11.6
11.8
35.9
41.7
11.6
10.0
1.6
1.4
13.5
13.8
0.6
0.6
Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate
1,231
1,364
76,441
38,416
42,904
13.7
13.9
54.8
63.4
22.5
19.4
3.5
3.1
15.4
15.8
1.6
1.4
Maruti
Neutral
3,581
-
108,176
57,865
68,104
16.4
16.7
176.3
225.5
20.3
15.9
3.9
3.4
19.4
21.2
1.6
1.3
Minda Industries
Buy
786
1,047
1,246
2,523
2,890
8.7
9.0
55.0
65.4
14.3
12.0
2.8
2.2
19.3
18.7
0.6
0.5
Motherson Sumi
Buy
225
313
29,722
39,343
45,100
8.8
9.1
10.1
12.5
22.3
18.0
7.0
5.5
35.3
34.4
0.8
0.7
Rane Brake Lining
Buy
347
465
275
454
511
11.5
12.0
25.2
31.0
13.8
11.2
2.1
1.9
14.9
16.6
0.7
0.7
Setco Automotive
Neutral
31
-
412
594
741
12.7
13.7
1.7
3.2
18.2
9.6
1.9
1.7
10.4
16.9
1.1
0.9
Tata Motors
Buy
318
371
91,669
259,686
273,957
13.0
13.4
25.9
29.5
12.3
10.8
1.6
1.4
8.0
9.0
0.5
0.5
TVS Motor
Accumulate
287
330
13,656
11,263
13,122
6.9
8.5
9.2
15.0
31.2
19.2
7.1
5.7
22.7
29.6
1.2
1.0
Amara Raja Batteries
Buy
885
1,040
15,118
4,892
5,871
17.4
17.6
28.8
37.1
30.7
23.9
7.2
5.7
23.4
24.1
3.1
2.5
Exide Industries
Buy
127
162
10,782
6,950
7,784
14.4
14.8
6.6
7.3
19.2
17.4
2.4
2.2
12.6
12.8
1.3
1.1
Apollo Tyres
Accumulate
161
171
8,180
12,146
12,689
16.8
16.0
21.2
19.0
7.6
8.5
1.3
1.1
16.5
13.0
0.8
0.8
Ceat
Buy
952
1,119
3,850
6,041
6,597
14.1
13.7
99.5
111.9
9.6
8.5
1.9
1.6
19.6
18.5
0.8
0.7
JK Tyres
Neutral
81
-
1,830
7,446
7,669
15.2
14.0
19.6
18.4
4.1
4.4
1.0
0.9
25.2
19.5
0.6
0.5
Swaraj Engines
Buy
797
919
990
552
630
14.2
14.7
44.6
54.1
17.9
14.7
4.2
3.8
23.2
25.6
1.6
1.4
Subros
Neutral
81
-
484
1,293
1,527
11.8
11.9
4.2
6.7
19.2
12.0
1.5
1.3
7.7
11.5
0.7
0.6
Indag Rubber
Neutral
156
-
410
283
329
17.0
17.2
13.0
15.4
12.1
10.1
2.6
2.2
21.8
21.6
1.2
1.0
Capital Goods
ACE
Neutral
37
-
363
660
839
4.7
8.2
1.0
3.9
36.7
9.4
1.2
1.0
3.2
11.3
0.7
0.6
BEML
Buy
973
1,157
4,052
3,277
4,006
6.0
8.9
36.2
64.3
26.9
15.1
1.9
1.7
5.7
11.7
1.3
1.0
Bharat Electronics
Buy
1,130
1,414
27,114
7,737
8,634
16.8
17.2
54.0
61.5
20.9
18.4
3.0
2.7
39.3
45.6
2.6
2.2
Stock Watch
February 22, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Capital Goods
Voltas
Buy
237
353
7,844
5,363
5,963
8.0
9.1
11.0
13.8
21.6
17.2
3.3
2.9
16.2
17.9
1.4
1.3
BGR Energy
Neutral
97
-
701
3,615
3,181
9.5
9.4
16.7
12.4
5.8
7.8
0.6
0.5
10.0
7.0
0.6
0.8
BHEL
Neutral
102
-
24,941
33,722
35,272
10.8
11.7
10.5
14.2
9.7
7.2
0.7
0.7
7.0
9.0
0.8
0.8
Blue Star
Buy
327
439
2,937
3,548
3,977
6.3
6.9
13.7
17.2
23.9
19.0
6.0
3.9
26.1
25.4
0.9
0.8
Crompton Greaves
Neutral
129
-
8,107
13,484
14,687
4.9
6.2
4.5
7.1
28.7
18.2
2.0
1.9
7.2
10.8
0.7
0.7
Greaves Cotton
Neutral
125
-
3,048
1,655
1,755
16.6
16.8
7.4
7.8
16.9
16.0
3.4
3.2
21.1
20.6
1.8
1.7
Inox Wind
Buy
233
458
5,160
4,980
5,943
17.0
17.5
26.6
31.6
8.7
7.4
2.6
1.9
35.0
30.0
1.2
0.9
KEC International
Neutral
108
-
2,775
8,791
9,716
6.1
6.8
5.4
8.2
20.0
13.2
2.0
1.8
10.0
14.0
0.5
0.5
Thermax
Neutral
773
-
9,210
6,413
7,525
7.4
8.5
30.5
39.3
25.3
19.7
3.9
3.4
15.0
17.0
1.4
1.2
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,276
-
23,959
13,151
14,757
16.4
18.3
63.9
83.4
20.0
15.3
2.6
2.4
13.3
16.1
1.7
1.4
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
195
-
30,239
11,564
12,556
19.4
20.7
8.9
10.1
21.9
19.3
2.7
2.6
12.8
13.8
2.3
2.0
HeidelbergCement
Neutral
64
-
1,459
1,772
1,926
13.3
15.4
1.0
3.0
64.4
21.5
1.6
1.5
2.6
7.9
1.4
1.2
India Cements
Neutral
72
-
2,218
4,216
4,840
18.0
19.5
4.0
9.9
18.1
7.3
0.7
0.7
4.0
9.5
0.9
0.7
JK Cement
Buy
453
615
3,170
3,661
4,742
10.1
15.8
18.0
61.0
25.2
7.4
1.8
1.6
7.5
22.9
1.3
1.0
J K Lakshmi Cement
Neutral
267
-
3,138
2,947
3,616
16.7
19.9
11.5
27.2
23.2
9.8
2.2
1.9
9.8
20.8
1.5
1.2
Mangalam Cements
Neutral
178
-
475
1,053
1,347
10.5
13.3
8.4
26.0
21.2
6.8
0.9
0.8
4.3
12.5
0.8
0.6
Orient Cement
Neutral
134
-
2,740
1,854
2,524
21.2
22.2
7.7
11.1
17.4
12.1
2.5
2.2
13.3
15.7
2.2
1.5
Ramco Cements
Neutral
369
-
8,773
4,036
4,545
20.8
21.3
15.1
18.8
24.4
19.6
3.0
2.7
12.9
14.3
2.7
2.3
Shree Cement^
Neutral
10,653
-
37,111
7,150
8,742
26.7
28.6
228.0
345.5
46.7
30.8
6.9
5.8
15.7
20.3
4.9
4.0
UltraTech Cement
Accumulate
2,840
3,107
77,944
24
30,023
19.1
21.6
89.0
132.0
31.9
21.5
3.7
3.2
12.2
15.9
3,308.2
2.7
Construction
ITNL
Neutral
68
-
2,220
7,360
8,825
34.0
35.9
7.0
9.0
9.6
7.5
0.3
0.3
3.2
3.7
3.7
3.6
KNR Constructions
Buy
457
603
1,284
937
1,470
14.3
14.0
44.2
38.6
10.3
11.8
2.1
1.8
15.4
15.4
1.5
0.9
Larsen & Toubro
Accumulate
1,151
1,310
107,237
58,870
65,708
8.3
10.3
42.0
53.0
27.4
21.7
1.9
1.7
8.8
11.2
2.0
1.8
Gujarat Pipavav Port
Neutral
148
-
7,167
629
684
51.0
52.2
6.4
5.9
23.2
25.1
3.1
2.8
15.9
12.7
11.0
10.0
MBL Infrastructures
Buy
137
285
567
2,313
2,797
12.2
14.6
19.0
20.0
7.2
6.8
0.8
0.7
11.3
10.6
1.0
0.9
Nagarjuna Const.
Neutral
65
-
3,611
7,892
8,842
8.8
9.1
3.0
5.3
21.7
12.3
1.1
1.0
5.0
8.5
0.7
0.6
PNC Infratech
Accumulate
506
558
2,595
1,873
2,288
13.2
13.5
24.0
32.0
21.1
15.8
2.1
1.8
12.1
12.3
1.5
1.2
Simplex Infra
Neutral
220
-
1,088
5,955
6,829
10.3
10.5
16.0
31.0
13.8
7.1
0.7
0.7
5.3
9.9
0.7
0.6
Power Mech Projects
Neutral
575
-
846
1,539
1,801
12.8
12.7
59.0
72.1
9.7
8.0
1.5
1.2
18.6
16.8
0.6
0.5
Stock Watch
February 22, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Construction
Sadbhav Engineering
Buy
231
289
3,970
3,481
4,219
10.7
10.8
8.2
11.7
28.2
19.8
2.7
2.4
10.3
13.5
1.4
1.2
NBCC
Buy
861
1,089
10,330
5,816
7,382
6.9
7.7
29.6
39.8
29.1
21.6
5.2
4.1
24.1
26.7
1.5
1.2
MEP Infra
Neutral
40
-
654
1,956
1,876
28.1
30.5
1.3
3.0
30.9
13.4
6.5
4.4
21.2
32.8
1.8
1.7
SIPL
Neutral
81
-
2,855
675
1,042
62.4
64.7
-
-
3.0
3.5
-
-
15.9
10.7
Financials
Allahabad Bank
Neutral
44
-
2,651
8,569
9,392
2.8
2.9
16.3
27.5
2.7
1.6
0.3
0.2
7.6
11.9
-
-
Axis Bank
Buy
393
494
93,436
26,473
31,527
3.5
3.6
35.7
43.5
11.0
9.0
1.8
1.6
17.9
18.9
-
-
Bank of Baroda
Neutral
140
-
32,166
18,485
21,025
1.9
2.0
13.5
21.1
10.4
6.6
0.8
0.7
7.3
10.6
-
-
Bank of India
Neutral
87
-
7,092
15,972
17,271
1.9
2.0
15.3
33.4
5.7
2.6
0.3
0.2
3.6
7.6
-
-
Canara Bank
Neutral
172
-
9,320
15,441
16,945
2.0
2.1
46.6
70.4
3.7
2.4
0.3
0.3
8.0
11.2
-
-
Dena Bank
Neutral
28
-
1,836
3,440
3,840
2.1
2.3
7.3
10.0
3.9
2.8
0.3
0.2
6.1
7.9
-
-
Federal Bank
Neutral
48
-
8,314
3,477
3,999
3.0
3.0
5.0
6.2
9.7
7.8
1.0
0.9
10.6
11.9
-
-
HDFC
Neutral
1,061
-
167,480
10,358
11,852
3.3
3.3
41.1
47.0
25.8
22.6
4.9
4.5
24.7
24.9
-
-
HDFC Bank
Buy
988
1,262
249,591
38,309
47,302
4.3
4.3
49.3
61.1
20.0
16.2
3.5
3.0
18.5
19.7
-
-
ICICI Bank
Buy
199
254
115,414
34,279
39,262
3.3
3.3
21.0
24.4
9.5
8.2
1.6
1.4
14.4
14.7
-
-
IDBI Bank
Neutral
55
-
10,422
9,625
10,455
1.8
1.8
8.5
14.2
6.4
3.9
0.4
0.4
5.9
9.3
-
-
Indian Bank
Neutral
86
-
4,152
6,160
6,858
2.5
2.5
24.5
29.8
3.5
2.9
0.3
0.3
7.7
8.6
-
-
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
420
592
21,171
3,101
3,745
2.5
2.5
33.0
40.2
12.7
10.4
2.4
2.0
19.7
20.5
-
-
Oriental Bank
Neutral
84
-
2,510
7,643
8,373
2.4
2.4
37.2
45.4
2.3
1.8
0.2
0.2
8.2
9.4
-
-
Punjab Natl.Bank
Neutral
76
-
14,953
23,638
26,557
2.8
2.8
17.9
27.2
4.3
2.8
0.4
0.4
8.5
12.0
-
-
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
17
-
2,275
1,965
2,185
2.5
2.5
2.5
3.3
6.8
5.1
0.7
0.6
9.5
11.7
-
-
St Bk of India
Buy
165
202
127,814
82,520
93,299
2.7
2.8
20.0
24.5
8.2
6.7
0.9
0.8
11.5
12.8
-
-
Union Bank
Neutral
118
-
8,105
12,646
14,129
2.3
2.4
31.0
39.1
3.8
3.0
0.4
0.4
9.8
11.4
-
-
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
31
-
2,698
3,536
3,827
1.9
1.9
5.5
6.7
5.7
4.7
0.5
0.4
7.8
8.8
-
-
Yes Bank
Accumulate
714
767
29,984
7,190
9,011
3.2
3.3
58.2
69.7
12.3
10.3
2.2
1.9
19.2
19.6
-
-
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
854
-
81,925
16,553
19,160
16.0
16.2
17.7
21.5
48.3
39.7
12.8
11.5
29.4
31.2
4.8
4.1
Britannia
Neutral
2,721
-
32,640
8,481
9,795
14.0
14.1
65.5
78.3
41.5
34.8
19.7
16.1
38.3
41.2
3.7
3.2
Colgate
Neutral
832
-
22,633
4,836
5,490
19.5
19.7
48.5
53.2
17.2
15.6
12.6
11.0
99.8
97.5
4.6
4.0
Dabur India
Accumulate
244
267
42,967
9,370
10,265
17.1
17.2
7.3
8.1
33.3
30.2
10.1
8.2
33.7
30.6
4.5
4.1
GlaxoSmith Con*
Accumulate
5,569
6,118
23,419
4,919
5,742
17.2
17.4
168.3
191.2
33.1
29.1
9.4
8.0
28.8
28.9
4.3
3.7
Stock Watch
February 22, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FMCG
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
1,198
-
40,798
10,168
12,886
16.1
16.1
32.1
38.4
37.3
31.2
7.6
7.0
19.7
21.0
4.1
3.2
HUL
Neutral
826
-
178,660
34,940
38,957
17.5
17.7
20.8
24.7
39.7
33.4
44.2
35.3
110.5
114.2
4.9
4.4
ITC
Buy
305
359
245,046
36,804
38,776
37.9
37.9
12.2
12.9
25.0
23.6
6.9
6.1
27.7
25.8
6.2
5.9
Marico
Neutral
233
-
30,029
6,551
7,766
15.7
16.0
10.4
12.5
22.4
18.6
6.5
5.4
33.2
32.4
4.5
3.8
Nestle*
Buy
5,208
6,646
50,215
11,291
12,847
22.2
22.3
158.9
184.6
32.8
28.2
17.1
15.4
55.0
57.3
4.3
3.7
Tata Global
Buy
107
144
6,772
8,635
9,072
9.8
9.9
6.5
7.6
16.5
14.1
1.6
1.6
6.8
7.4
0.7
0.7
IT
HCL Tech^
Buy
850
1,038
119,820
42,038
47,503
21.2
21.5
51.5
57.7
16.5
14.7
3.6
2.8
21.5
18.8
2.5
2.0
Infosys
Buy
1,126
1,347
258,533
61,850
69,981
27.5
27.5
59.4
65.7
19.0
17.1
4.0
3.4
21.2
20.1
3.5
2.9
TCS
Buy
2,320
2,854
457,179
108,487
122,590
28.3
28.5
122.8
138.4
18.9
16.8
7.2
6.5
38.0
38.9
3.8
3.3
Tech Mahindra
Buy
440
646
42,533
25,566
28,890
16.0
17.0
26.3
31.9
16.7
13.8
3.0
2.6
17.9
18.6
1.4
1.2
Wipro
Buy
547
680
135,224
50,808
56,189
23.7
23.8
37.3
40.7
14.7
13.5
2.8
2.6
19.2
17.7
2.1
1.8
Media
D B Corp
Buy
308
356
5,659
2,241
2,495
27.8
27.9
21.8
25.6
14.2
12.0
3.7
3.3
26.7
28.5
2.5
2.2
HT Media
Neutral
80
-
1,854
2,495
2,603
11.2
11.2
7.3
8.6
10.9
9.3
0.9
0.8
7.4
8.1
0.2
0.2
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
151
189
4,936
2,170
2,355
27.2
26.2
8.9
9.9
17.0
15.3
3.6
3.1
20.9
20.5
2.2
2.0
Sun TV Network
Neutral
329
-
12,967
2,779
3,196
70.2
70.5
22.8
27.3
14.4
12.1
3.6
3.2
26.7
28.3
4.4
3.8
Hindustan Media
Neutral
270
-
1,981
920
1,031
20.0
20.0
19.2
20.9
14.1
12.9
2.3
2.0
16.4
15.3
1.7
1.5
Ventures
Metals & Mining
Coal India
Buy
313
380
197,418
76,167
84,130
19.9
22.3
22.4
25.8
13.9
12.1
5.0
4.9
35.5
41.0
1.9
1.7
Hind. Zinc
Accumulate
164
175
69,359
14,641
14,026
50.4
50.4
17.7
16.0
9.3
10.3
1.4
1.3
16.2
13.2
2.4
2.2
Hindalco
Neutral
69
-
14,269
104,356
111,186
8.7
9.5
6.7
11.1
10.3
6.3
0.4
0.4
3.5
5.9
0.7
0.6
JSW Steel
Neutral
1,084
-
26,198
42,308
45,147
16.4
20.7
(10.3)
49.5
21.9
1.2
1.2
(1.0)
5.6
1.7
1.6
NMDC
Neutral
92
-
36,515
8,237
10,893
46.6
44.5
10.0
11.7
9.3
7.9
1.0
0.9
12.5
13.0
4.2
3.2
SAIL
Neutral
36
-
14,910
45,915
53,954
7.2
10.5
1.5
4.4
24.0
8.3
0.4
0.3
2.3
4.1
1.0
0.9
Vedanta
Neutral
75
-
22,131
71,445
81,910
26.2
26.3
12.9
19.2
5.8
3.9
0.4
0.4
7.2
8.9
0.8
0.6
Tata Steel
Neutral
253
-
24,596
126,760
137,307
8.9
11.3
6.4
23.1
39.8
11.0
0.8
0.8
2.0
7.1
0.8
0.7
Oil & Gas
Cairn India
Neutral
131
-
24,598
11,323
12,490
49.4
51.0
20.7
20.7
6.3
6.4
0.4
0.4
6.4
6.1
1.2
0.6
GAIL
Neutral
326
-
41,352
64,856
70,933
9.1
9.6
24.0
28.9
13.6
11.3
1.2
1.1
8.8
9.6
0.8
0.7
ONGC
Neutral
211
-
180,649
154,564
167,321
36.8
37.4
28.6
32.5
7.4
6.5
0.9
0.9
12.7
13.5
1.4
1.3
Petronet LNG
Neutral
244
-
18,293
29,691
31,188
5.8
6.2
12.8
13.4
19.1
18.2
2.9
2.5
15.8
14.8
0.7
0.7
Indian Oil Corp
Buy
373
455
90,623
359,607
402,760
5.9
6.1
42.5
48.7
8.8
7.7
1.2
1.0
14.1
14.4
0.4
0.3
Stock Watch
February 22, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Oil & Gas
Reliance Industries
Buy
945
1,150
305,978
304,775
344,392
12.6
13.4
91.3
102.6
10.4
9.2
1.2
1.1
11.8
12.0
0.9
0.8
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
617
-
11,622
3,274
3,802
26.9
19.4
35.0
28.7
17.6
21.5
7.8
5.9
55.6
31.2
3.5
3.0
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
656
856
38,347
14,923
17,162
22.0
23.0
35.7
42.8
18.4
15.3
5.4
4.1
34.0
30.2
2.9
2.5
Aventis*
Neutral
4,342
-
10,000
2,082
2,371
17.4
20.8
118.2
151.5
36.7
28.7
5.4
4.3
19.9
25.5
4.5
3.7
Cadila Healthcare
Accumulate
327
352
33,497
10,224
11,840
21.0
22.0
14.6
17.6
22.4
18.6
6.1
4.8
30.8
29.0
3.3
2.8
Cipla
Buy
523
636
42,020
14,211
16,611
20.6
19.0
27.0
28.9
19.4
18.1
3.3
2.8
18.4
16.8
2.9
2.5
Dr Reddy's
Buy
3,062
3,933
52,220
16,838
19,575
25.0
23.1
167.5
178.8
18.3
17.1
3.8
3.2
23.1
20.4
3.0
2.6
Dishman Pharma
Neutral
308
-
2,481
1,733
1,906
21.5
21.5
17.0
19.9
18.1
15.5
1.8
1.6
10.5
11.2
1.9
1.7
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
3,205
-
27,144
2,870
3,158
20.0
22.1
59.5
68.3
53.9
46.9
15.9
16.3
28.5
34.3
9.0
8.2
Indoco Remedies
Neutral
263
-
2,428
1,033
1,199
15.9
18.2
9.4
13.6
28.0
19.4
4.2
3.5
15.7
19.7
2.4
2.1
Ipca labs
Buy
643
900
8,118
3,363
3,909
12.9
18.6
13.4
28.0
48.0
23.0
3.4
3.0
7.4
14.0
2.7
2.3
Lupin
Neutral
1,783
-
80,328
13,092
16,561
25.0
27.0
50.4
68.3
35.4
26.1
7.3
5.8
22.8
24.7
5.9
4.5
Sun Pharma
Accumulate
864
950
207,871
28,163
32,610
25.8
30.7
17.4
26.9
49.6
32.1
4.7
4.1
13.0
16.6
6.9
5.7
Power
Tata Power
Neutral
59
-
15,903
35,923
37,402
22.6
22.8
4.1
5.2
14.5
11.4
1.1
1.0
7.5
9.3
1.4
1.3
NTPC
Buy
130
157
106,779
87,064
98,846
23.5
23.5
11.7
13.2
11.1
9.8
1.2
1.2
11.4
12.1
2.3
2.0
Power Grid
Buy
141
170
73,765
20,702
23,361
86.7
86.4
12.1
13.2
11.7
10.7
1.7
1.5
15.6
15.1
8.5
7.9
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
326
-
130,435
101,748
109,191
32.1
31.7
12.0
12.5
27.2
26.1
1.9
1.8
6.9
6.7
1.9
1.7
Idea Cellular
Neutral
108
-
39,029
34,282
36,941
32.0
31.5
5.9
6.2
18.4
17.5
1.7
1.5
9.9
9.3
1.7
1.6
zOthers
Abbott India
Neutral
4,888
-
10,388
2,715
3,153
14.5
14.1
134.3
152.2
36.4
32.1
9.1
7.5
27.4
25.6
3.5
3.0
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
167
237
1,688
4,719
5,287
5.2
5.8
8.6
12.7
19.5
13.2
2.2
2.0
11.4
14.8
0.4
0.3
Finolex Cables
Neutral
237
-
3,619
2,520
2,883
12.2
12.0
12.7
14.2
18.7
16.7
2.5
2.3
13.6
13.5
1.2
1.0
Goodyear India*
Buy
479
582
1,105
1,800
1,600
11.7
11.5
58.7
52.9
8.2
9.1
1.8
1.6
24.6
18.7
0.4
0.4
Hitachi
Neutral
1,057
-
2,875
1,779
2,081
7.8
8.8
21.8
33.4
48.5
31.6
7.8
6.3
17.4
22.1
1.7
1.4
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
274
-
4,966
1,620
1,847
11.5
11.5
7.3
8.5
37.6
32.4
4.9
4.5
13.3
14.4
2.9
2.5
MRF
Buy
33,540
45,575
14,225
20,316
14,488
21.4
21.1
5,488.0
3,798.0
6.1
8.8
2.1
1.7
41.1
21.2
0.6
0.9
Page Industries
Neutral
10,216
-
11,394
1,929
2,450
19.8
20.1
229.9
299.0
44.4
34.2
19.6
13.6
52.1
47.1
5.9
4.7
Relaxo Footwears
Neutral
395
-
4,745
1,767
2,152
12.3
12.5
19.3
25.1
20.5
15.8
5.0
3.9
27.7
27.8
2.7
2.2
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
981
1,354
919
1,636
1,815
11.5
11.5
89.9
104.1
10.9
9.4
1.8
1.6
17.9
17.8
0.7
0.6
Styrolution ABS India*
Neutral
510
-
896
1,271
1,440
8.6
9.2
32.0
41.1
15.9
12.4
1.6
1.5
10.7
12.4
0.7
0.6
Stock Watch
February 22, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
zOthers
TVS Srichakra
Buy
2,220
3,217
1,700
2,035
2,252
15.9
15.3
248.6
268.1
8.9
8.3
3.9
2.8
43.6
33.9
0.9
0.7
HSIL
Buy
229
302
1,655
2,123
2,384
16.1
16.5
15.0
18.9
15.2
12.1
1.2
1.1
8.0
9.4
1.1
1.0
Kirloskar Engines India
Neutral
208
-
3,009
2,403
2,554
8.6
9.9
9.2
10.5
22.7
19.8
2.2
2.1
9.7
10.7
0.9
0.8
Ltd
M M Forgings
Buy
427
614
516
511
615
21.7
21.6
43.1
55.8
9.9
7.7
1.8
1.5
19.9
21.2
1.2
0.9
Banco Products (India) Neutral
96
-
688
1,208
1,353
11.0
12.3
10.8
14.5
8.9
6.6
1.0
0.9
11.9
14.5
0.5
0.5
Competent Automobiles Neutral
131
-
81
1,040
1,137
3.2
3.1
25.7
28.0
5.1
4.7
0.8
0.7
15.0
14.3
0.1
0.1
Nilkamal
Neutral
1,025
-
1,529
1,871
2,031
10.7
10.5
63.2
69.8
16.2
14.7
2.6
2.3
17.6
16.6
0.9
0.8
Visaka Industries
Buy
96
144
152
1,086
1,197
9.9
10.3
21.5
28.8
4.5
3.3
0.4
0.4
9.6
11.6
0.4
0.3
Transport Corporation of
Neutral
219
-
1,664
2,830
3,350
8.8
9.0
14.4
18.3
15.2
12.0
2.3
2.0
15.4
17.1
0.7
0.6
India
Elecon Engineering
Neutral
51
-
553
1,359
1,482
10.3
13.7
0.8
3.9
63.3
13.1
1.0
1.0
1.6
7.8
0.8
0.7
Surya Roshni
Buy
135
201
593
2,992
3,223
8.1
8.4
14.7
18.3
9.2
7.4
0.9
0.8
9.7
11.0
0.5
0.4
MT Educare
Neutral
144
-
574
286
366
18.3
17.7
7.7
9.4
18.7
15.4
3.9
3.4
20.2
21.1
1.9
1.4
Radico Khaitan
Buy
100
156
1,327
1,517
1,635
12.7
13.4
5.8
7.1
17.1
14.0
1.5
1.4
8.6
9.6
1.4
1.2
Garware Wall Ropes
Buy
310
473
679
862
974
11.2
11.2
24.9
29.6
12.5
10.5
1.9
1.6
15.1
15.4
0.8
0.7
Wonderla Holidays
Neutral
367
-
2,072
206
308
44.0
43.6
9.0
12.9
40.7
28.4
5.6
5.0
13.7
17.8
10.0
6.6
Linc Pen & Plastics
Accumulate
175
185
259
340
371
8.3
8.9
10.8
13.2
16.2
13.3
2.6
2.3
16.0
17.1
0.8
0.7
The Byke Hospitality
Neutral
154
-
618
222
287
20.5
20.5
5.6
7.6
27.3
20.4
5.2
4.2
18.9
20.8
2.8
2.2
Interglobe Aviation
Neutral
841
-
30,315
17,022
21,122
20.7
14.5
63.9
53.7
13.2
15.7
19.7
16.2
149.9
103.2
1.8
1.5
Coffee Day Enterprises
Neutral
226
-
4,653
2,692
2,964
17.0
18.6
-
4.7
-
47.7
2.8
2.6
0.2
5.5
2.1
2.0
Ltd
Navneet Education
Neutral
84
-
2,002
998
1,062
24.1
24.0
5.8
6.1
14.6
13.8
3.2
2.8
22.0
20.6
2.1
2.0
Navkar Corporation
Buy
160
265
2,282
365
436
38.3
37.5
5.6
5.9
28.4
27.2
1.8
1.7
6.3
6.1
7.1
6.1
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on February 19, 2016
Market Outlook
February 22, 2016
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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