Market Outlook
August 20, 2015
Dealer’s Diary
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE Sensex
0.4
100
27,932
Indian markets are expected to open negatively tracking the SGX Nifty and its Asian
peers.
Nifty
0.3
29
8,495
MID CAP
0.1
7
11,549
US markets fell led by losses in the energy stocks as the oil prices plunged to a new
SMALL CAP
0.2
29
11,921
6 year low.
BSE HC
2.6
470
18,368
BSE PSU
(1.1)
(81)
7,380
European markets declined owing to a rout in commodities due to slowdown worries
in China.
BANKEX
(0.5)
(99)
21,456
AUTO
0.5
90
19,545
Indian markets ended higher led by gains in the Pharma and IT stocks.
METAL
(1.3)
(104)
7,653
OIL & GAS
(0.1)
(10)
9,404
News & Result Analysis
BSE IT
0.7
84
11,855
Tata Motors Ltd plans to introduce three new car models in FY2016 to regain
domestic market share
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Refer detailed news & result analysis on the following page
Dow Jones
(0.9)
(163)
17,349
Markets Today
NASDAQ
(0.8)
(40)
5,019
FTSE
(1.9)
(123)
6,403
The trend deciding level for the day is 27,891 / 8,481 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up
Nikkei
(1.6)
(332)
20,223
to 28,062 - 28,192 / 8,535 - 8,575 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
Hang Sang
(1.3)
(307)
23,168
27,891 / 8,481 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct towards
Straits Times
(0.3)
(8)
3,041
27,761 - 27,591 / 8,441 - 8,386 levels.
Shanghai Com
1.2
46
3,794
Indices
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
Indian ADR
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
SENSEX
27,591
27,761
27,891
28,062
28,192
NIFTY
8,386
8,441
8,481
8,535
8,575
INFY
0.9
0.2
$18.2
WIT
(0.1)
(0.0)
$12.5
Net Inflows (August 14, 2015)
IBN
(1.1)
(0.1)
$9.7
` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
MTD
YTD
HDB
(0.9)
(0.6)
$61.4
FII
4,445
3,984
461
(489)
140,481
MFs
919
708
211
732
58,681
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Advances
1,507
743
FII Derivatives (August 19, 2015)
Declines
1,392
758
` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
Open Interest
Unchanged
112
59
Index Futures
1,082
1,604
(522)
14,269
Stock Futures
3,442
2,939
503
53,253
Volumes (` cr)
BSE
3,312
Gainers / Losers
NSE
17,365
Gainer
Loser
Company
Price (`)
chg (%)
Company
Price (`)
chg (%)
ATUL
1,501
10.2
AMTEKAUTO
89
(30.8)
JPASSOCIAT
11
9.4
DEN
131
(7.1)
BFUTILITIE
626
8.2
KSCL
493
(6.0)
SPARC
433
8.2
IBREALEST
61
(5.0)
SCI
82
8.0
KAILASH
4
(4.9)
Market Outlook
August 20, 2015
Tata Motors Ltd plans to introduce three new car models in
FY2016 to regain domestic market share
Tata Motors Ltd plans to introduce three new car models in FY2016 as it seeks to
refresh an aging lineup and regain market share. It plans to unveil a sedan, a
hatchback and a crossover during the year. It’s also considering the introduction of
a compact sport-utility vehicle later. The new products are a part of long term
strategy to unveil at least two new passenger vehicles every year through 2020 to
drive growth. Tata Motors has gone from being India’s third-biggest car maker in
2012 to the fifth-biggest this year, as consumers opted for newer models offered
by competition viz Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. and Hyundai Motor Co.
The three new models will be the latest additions to Tata’s lineup since the Zest
compact sedan and Bolt hatchback were introduced in the past year. The Zest and
Bolt helped boost sales by
9.7% in YTD FY2016 (April
2015-July
2015),
rebounding from the 36% slump a year earlier. We believe new product is the
need of the hour as it would be the major factor to enable it regain market share.
We currently have Buy rating on the stock.
Economic and Political News
As Lenovo, Foxconn show interest, TN finds itself on electronics industry map
Growth forecast to not have an impact on India's credit rating as of now: Atsi
Sheth
Modi announced `3,094 crore for agri revival for Bihar
Corporate News
Coal unions to strike on Sept 2 to protest CIL disinvestment
Glenmark receives USFDA nod for oral contraceptive drug
IndianOil set to exceed 12th Plan capex of `56,200 crore
Market Outlook
August 20, 2015
Top Picks
Large Cap
Market
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
Cap (` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Axis Bank
Financials
131,788
Buy
555
716
29.1
ICICI Bank
Financials
176,392
Buy
304
370
21.8
Inox Wind
Capital Goods
8,892
Buy
401
505
26.0
LIC Housing Fin. Financials
24,925
Buy
494
590
19.5
Power Grid
Power
71,437
Buy
137
170
24.5
TCS
IT
535,007
Buy
2,731
3,168
16.0
Tech Mahindra IT
53,865
Buy
560
646
15.3
Yes Bank
Financials
32,399
Buy
774
989
27.7
Infosys
IT
269,903 Accumulate
1,175
1,306
11.1
Source: Angel Research, Bloomberg
Mid Cap
Market
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
Cap (` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Bajaj Electricals
Others
2,665
Buy
264
341
29.0
Hindustan Media Ven. Media
1,673
Buy
228
292
28.1
JK Tyre
Auto Ancillary
2,646
Buy
117
147
26.0
MBL Infrastructures
Construction
1,091
Buy
263
395
49.9
Radico Khaitan
Others
1,239
Buy
93
112
20.3
Surya Roshni
Others
626
Buy
143
183
28.1
Garware Wall Ropes Others
746 Accumulate
341
390
14.5
Minda Industries
Auto Ancillary
933 Accumulate
588
652
10.8
MT Educare
Others
552
Neutral
139
-
-
Source: Angel Research, Bloomberg
Market Outlook
August 20, 2015
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
August 20, 2015
6:00PM
US
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Aug 15
274.00
271.00
7:30PM
US
Existing home sales
Million
Jul
5.49
5.43
August 21, 2015
7:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value
Aug A
(7.10)
(6.90)
1:00PM
Germany PMI Services
Value
Aug P
53.80
53.70
1:00PM
Germany PMI Manufacturing
Value
Aug P
51.80
51.60
August 25, 2015
11:30AM
Germany GDP nsa (YoY)
% Change
2Q F
1.60
--
7:30PM
US
New home sales
Thousands
Jul
482.00
513.50
7:30PM
US
Consumer Confidence
S.A./ 1985=100
Aug
90.91
93.00
August 27, 2015
6:00PM
US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
2Q S
2.30
3.30
August 28, 2015
2:00PM
UK
GDP (YoY)
% Change
2Q P
2.60
--
September 1, 2015
1:25PM
Germany Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Aug
9.00
--
6:30AM
China
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Aug
50.00
--
2:00PM
UK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Aug
51.90
--
September 3, 2015
5:15PM
Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates
%
Sep 3
0.05
--
September 4, 2015
2:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
% Change
2Q P
0.30
--
6:00PM
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Aug
215.00
--
6:00PM
US
Unnemployment rate
%
Aug
5.30
--
September 8, 2015
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Aug
(8.30)
--
September 9, 2015
7:00AM
China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Aug
1.60
--
2:00PM
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Jul
1.50
--
September 10, 2015
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Aug
(10.28)
--
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Aug
(10.30)
--
4:30PM
UK
BOE Announces rates
% Ratio
Sep 10
0.50
0.50
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
August 20, 2015
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
9.0
8.4
6.0
5.2
4.8
5.0
8.0
7.5
7.5
3.6
4.0
3.4
7.0
2.8
2.7
6.7
6.7
6.6
2.6
2.5
7.0
6.3
6.4
3.0
2.0
0.9
6.0
0.5
1.0
5.0
4.7
-
5.0
4.5
(1.0)
4.0
(2.0)
(3.0)
3.0
(2.7)
(4.0)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
55.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
8.0
7.4
54.0
7.0
6.8
7.0
53.0
5.6
5.2
5.4
5.3
6.0
4.9
5.0
52.0
4.6
5.0
4.3
51.0
4.0
3.3
3.0
50.0
2.0
49.0
1.0
48.0
-
47.0
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
30.0
9.00
20.0
8.00
10.0
7.00
0.0
6.00
(10.0)
5.00
(20.0)
4.00
(30.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
August 20, 2015
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
7.0
5.6
6.0
5.3
4.7
4.0
3.0
2.6
2.1
2.3
2.0
1.1
0.8
(1.6)
(2.2)
(0.9)
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2015 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
10.0
7.5
8.0
6.8
6.0
5.2
4.8
3.7
4.0
3.1
2.7
2.0
1.6
2.0
1.2
1.0
(1.0)
(3.8)
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(6.0)
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
August 20, 2015
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
46,588
(9.7)
(16.1)
(18.2)
Russia
Micex
1,674
2.9
2.3
17.4
India
Nifty
8,495
(1.3)
0.9
11.4
China
Shanghai Composite
3,794
(6.9)
(17.4)
68.4
South Africa
Top 40
44,686
(5.0)
(7.2)
(3.7)
Mexico
Mexbol
43,474
(4.6)
(3.6)
(3.3)
Indonesia
LQ45
756
(10.9)
(17.9)
(15.3)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,582
(9.7)
(12.7)
(15.9)
Thailand
SET 50
897
(8.0)
(10.6)
(12.6)
USA
Dow Jones
17,349
(4.2)
(5.3)
2.2
UK
FTSE
6,403
(5.7)
(8.6)
(5.5)
Japan
Nikkei
20,223
(3.5)
(0.4)
32.7
Germany
DAX
10,682
(9.0)
(9.8)
14.4
France
CAC
4,884
(5.0)
(5.1)
12.5
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
August 20, 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis
Neutral
224
-
4,352
2,075
2,394
14.4
14.4
9.5
11.0
23.6
20.4
4.7
4.1
21.1
21.3
2.1
1.8
United Phosphorus
Neutral
565
-
24,195
13,698
15,752
17.6
17.6
32.1
38.5
17.6
14.7
3.5
2.9
21.4
21.3
1.9
1.6
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Ashok Leyland
Neutral
96
-
27,178
17,850
20,852
10.6
11.1
3.2
4.3
29.8
22.2
5.0
4.6
16.4
20.8
1.5
1.2
Bajaj Auto
Neutral
2,541
-
73,535
23,842
27,264
19.8
19.6
128.4
144.4
19.8
17.6
6.0
5.2
30.5
29.5
2.6
2.3
Eicher Motors
Neutral
21,236
-
57,638
11,681
15,550
15.3
16.9
358.5
564.3
59.2
37.6
17.8
13.2
29.8
34.9
4.8
3.6
Hero Motocorp
Neutral
2,690
-
53,716
28,500
33,028
13.8
14.1
144.2
166.3
18.7
16.2
6.8
5.8
36.7
36.0
1.7
1.5
L G Balakrishnan & Bros Neutral
470
-
738
1,254
1,394
11.6
11.8
35.9
41.7
13.1
11.3
1.8
1.6
13.5
13.8
0.7
0.6
Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate
1,367
1,493
84,878
40,088
45,176
13.8
14.0
59.6
70.4
22.9
19.4
3.8
3.3
16.6
17.2
1.8
1.5
Maruti
Neutral
4,671
-
141,106
58,102
68,587
16.7
16.9
182.0
225.5
25.7
20.7
5.1
4.4
19.9
21.0
2.2
1.8
Minda Industries
Accumulate
588
652
933
2,567
2,965
7.3
8.0
38.8
54.3
15.2
10.8
2.2
1.8
14.4
16.8
0.5
0.4
Rane Brake Lining
Accumulate
335
366
265
454
511
11.1
11.4
23.8
28.1
14.1
11.9
2.0
1.8
14.2
15.3
0.7
0.7
Setco Automotive
Neutral
223
-
596
594
741
12.7
13.7
8.4
15.8
26.6
14.1
2.8
2.4
10.4
16.9
1.5
1.2
Tata Motors
Buy
351
455
101,370
267,464
311,225
13.7
13.7
34.6
41.8
10.2
8.4
1.3
1.1
13.2
13.9
0.6
0.5
TVS Motor
Accumulate
229
255
10,879
11,839
13,985
7.0
8.0
10.8
15.9
21.2
14.4
5.4
4.3
25.5
29.7
0.9
0.7
Amara Raja Batteries
Neutral
1,056
-
18,034
5,101
6,224
17.8
17.6
31.1
39.2
34.0
26.9
8.4
6.7
24.8
24.8
3.5
2.8
Exide Industries
Neutral
160
-
13,604
7,363
8,247
13.7
14.5
6.6
7.7
24.3
20.8
3.1
2.8
12.6
13.3
1.6
1.4
Apollo Tyres
Neutral
196
-
9,954
12,428
13,262
16.8
16.4
21.9
21.1
8.9
9.3
1.5
1.3
17.0
14.1
0.9
0.9
Ceat
Accumulate
1,123
1,203
4,542
6,041
6,770
14.3
14.1
101.5
120.3
11.1
9.3
2.2
1.8
20.0
19.6
0.9
0.8
JK Tyres
Buy
117
147
2,646
7,446
7,942
15.2
14.7
19.6
21.0
6.0
5.6
1.5
1.2
25.2
21.7
0.8
0.7
Swaraj Engines
Neutral
954
-
1,185
593
677
14.5
14.8
51.2
60.8
18.6
15.7
4.3
3.9
23.3
24.8
1.9
1.6
Subros
Neutral
95
-
567
1,268
1,488
11.6
11.9
3.7
6.6
25.6
14.3
1.7
1.6
6.8
11.4
0.8
0.6
Indag Rubber
Neutral
204
-
536
283
329
17.0
17.2
13.0
15.4
15.8
13.2
3.4
2.9
21.8
21.6
1.6
1.3
Capital Goods
ACE
Neutral
46
-
456
660
839
4.7
8.2
1.0
3.9
46.1
11.8
1.4
1.3
3.2
11.3
0.8
0.7
BEML
Neutral
1,343
-
5,593
3,277
4,006
6.0
8.9
29.2
64.3
46.0
20.9
2.6
2.3
5.7
11.7
1.8
1.4
BGR Energy
Neutral
133
-
958
3,615
3,181
9.5
9.4
16.7
12.4
8.0
10.7
0.8
0.7
10.0
7.0
0.7
0.8
BHEL
Neutral
262
-
64,127
33,722
35,272
10.8
11.7
10.5
14.2
25.0
18.5
1.9
1.7
7.0
9.0
2.0
1.9
Blue Star
Neutral
370
-
3,326
3,649
4,209
5.0
5.9
9.2
14.7
40.4
25.1
7.3
6.9
9.1
17.5
1.0
0.9
Crompton Greaves
Accumulate
187
204
11,692
13,484
14,687
4.9
6.2
4.5
7.1
41.5
26.3
2.9
2.7
7.2
10.8
1.0
0.9
Inox Wind
Buy
401
505
8,892
4,980
5,943
17.0
17.5
26.6
31.6
15.1
12.7
4.5
3.3
35.0
30.0
1.9
1.6
Market Outlook
August 20, 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Capital Goods
KEC International
Neutral
142
-
3,653
8,791
9,716
6.1
6.8
5.4
8.2
26.3
17.3
2.6
2.4
10.0
14.0
0.6
0.6
Thermax
Neutral
1,050
-
12,511
6,413
7,525
7.4
8.5
30.5
39.3
34.4
26.7
5.3
4.6
15.0
17.0
1.9
1.6
Cement
ACC
Accumulate
1,448
1,548
27,177
11,856
14,092
14.5
17.8
47.6
76.1
30.4
19.0
3.1
2.9
10.6
15.7
2.2
1.8
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
231
-
35,833
10,569
12,022
20.7
22.2
8.7
10.7
26.5
21.6
3.4
3.2
13.0
15.2
3.0
2.6
India Cements
Buy
84
112
2,594
4,716
5,133
15.9
16.9
3.7
7.5
22.8
11.3
0.8
0.8
3.8
7.3
0.9
0.7
JK Cement
Buy
652
767
4,560
4,056
4,748
14.5
17.0
22.6
41.1
28.9
15.9
2.6
2.3
9.3
15.3
1.6
1.3
J K Lakshmi Cement
Buy
368
430
4,331
2,947
3,616
16.7
19.9
11.5
27.2
32.0
13.5
3.0
2.6
9.8
20.8
1.9
1.5
Mangalam Cements
Neutral
254
-
678
1,053
1,347
10.5
13.3
8.4
26.0
30.2
9.8
1.3
1.2
4.3
12.5
1.0
0.8
Orient Cement
Neutral
175
-
3,586
1,854
2,524
21.2
22.2
7.7
11.1
22.7
15.8
3.3
2.8
13.3
15.7
2.7
1.9
Ramco Cements
Neutral
353
-
8,411
4,036
4,545
20.8
21.3
15.1
18.8
23.4
18.8
2.9
2.5
12.9
14.3
2.6
2.2
Shree Cement^
Neutral
11,156
-
38,864
7,150
8,742
26.7
28.6
228.0
345.5
48.9
32.3
7.2
6.0
15.7
20.3
5.2
4.2
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
3,163
-
86,794
27,562
31,548
20.4
22.3
111.9
143.3
28.3
22.1
4.0
3.5
15.2
16.8
3.2
2.8
Construction
ITNL
Accumulate
117
130
2,882
7,360
8,825
34.0
35.9
1.0
5.0
116.8
23.4
0.5
0.5
0.3
1.4
3.8
3.7
KNR Constructions
Neutral
562
-
1,579
915
1,479
14.3
13.9
20.3
37.2
27.7
15.1
2.5
2.2
9.6
15.6
1.9
1.2
Larsen & Toubro
Accumulate
1,811
2,013
168,544
68,920
82,446
10.9
11.5
57.0
73.0
31.8
24.8
2.9
2.7
13.6
15.5
2.7
2.2
Gujarat Pipavav Port
Neutral
200
-
9,662
740
843
53.1
53.6
8.0
10.0
25.0
20.0
3.9
3.1
20.4
19.4
12.6
10.7
MBL Infrastructures
Buy
263
395
1,091
2,507
2,986
12.4
14.4
21.5
20.5
12.2
12.8
1.5
1.3
12.6
12.7
1.2
1.1
PNC Infratech
Neutral
516
-
2,647
1,798
2,132
13.2
13.5
22.0
30.0
23.5
17.2
2.1
1.9
11.5
11.4
1.6
1.3
Financials
Allahabad Bank
Neutral
94
-
5,345
8,859
9,817
3.0
3.0
23.7
30.1
4.0
3.1
0.5
0.4
10.6
12.3
-
-
Axis Bank
Buy
555
716
131,788
26,522
31,625
3.6
3.6
36.2
45.4
15.3
12.2
3.0
2.6
18.2
19.6
-
-
Bank of Baroda
Neutral
209
-
46,110
18,934
21,374
2.0
2.0
13.2
15.1
15.8
13.8
1.2
1.1
7.1
7.7
-
-
Bank of India
Neutral
177
-
11,782
17,402
20,003
2.0
2.1
40.3
50.7
4.4
3.5
0.4
0.4
9.0
10.4
-
-
Canara Bank
Neutral
342
-
17,640
15,805
17,745
2.0
2.2
64.3
73.5
5.3
4.7
0.6
0.5
10.8
11.3
-
-
Dena Bank
Neutral
45
-
2,528
3,580
4,040
2.1
2.2
8.4
10.9
5.4
4.1
0.5
0.4
6.8
8.4
-
-
Federal Bank
Neutral
67
-
11,515
3,522
4,045
3.2
3.2
12.2
14.1
5.5
4.8
0.7
0.6
12.9
13.4
-
-
HDFC
Accumulate
1,257
1,343
198,151
11,198
13,321
3.5
3.5
45.1
53.7
27.9
23.4
5.8
5.2
27.2
28.2
-
-
HDFC Bank
Buy
1,081
1,255
271,724
38,629
47,500
4.5
4.7
52.6
66.4
20.6
16.3
3.8
3.2
19.6
21.2
-
-
ICICI Bank
Buy
304
370
176,392
36,037
41,647
3.5
3.6
22.9
26.7
13.3
11.4
2.2
1.9
15.7
15.9
-
-
IDBI Bank
Neutral
70
-
11,172
9,806
11,371
1.7
1.9
10.0
16.3
7.0
4.3
0.5
0.5
6.8
10.4
-
-
Market Outlook
August 20, 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Financials
Indian Bank
Neutral
149
-
7,140
6,454
7,321
2.5
2.6
26.4
33.3
5.6
4.5
0.5
0.4
8.1
9.6
-
-
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
494
590
24,925
2,934
3,511
2.3
2.3
30.9
36.8
16.0
13.4
2.6
2.2
16.8
17.5
-
-
Oriental Bank
Neutral
174
-
5,231
7,930
8,852
2.5
2.5
51.8
57.1
3.4
3.1
0.4
0.3
9.3
9.5
-
-
Punjab Natl.Bank
Neutral
168
-
31,166
24,160
27,777
2.9
3.0
18.5
24.6
9.1
6.8
0.9
0.8
8.8
10.8
-
-
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
23
-
3,072
1,999
2,249
2.4
2.4
3.5
4.0
6.6
5.7
0.8
0.7
12.6
13.1
-
-
St Bk of India
Neutral
278
-
210,379
86,900
100,550
3.1
3.1
22.1
27.7
12.6
10.1
1.6
1.4
12.7
14.3
-
-
Union Bank
Neutral
212
-
13,475
12,995
14,782
2.4
2.4
32.3
40.9
6.6
5.2
0.8
0.7
10.7
12.3
-
-
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
39
-
3,385
3,474
3,932
1.8
1.9
5.9
7.2
6.7
5.5
0.6
0.5
8.1
9.3
-
-
Yes Bank
Buy
774
989
32,399
7,006
8,825
3.1
3.3
61.4
77.1
12.6
10.0
2.3
2.0
20.1
21.3
-
-
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
899
-
86,256
16,553
19,160
16.0
16.2
17.7
21.5
50.9
41.8
13.5
12.2
29.4
31.2
5.0
4.4
Britannia
Neutral
3,295
-
39,528
8,065
9,395
9.6
10.2
47.2
65.5
69.8
50.3
23.2
21.9
38.3
41.2
4.8
4.1
Colgate
Neutral
1,997
-
27,157
4,836
5,490
19.5
19.7
48.5
53.2
41.2
37.5
30.2
26.3
99.8
97.5
5.5
4.8
Dabur India
Neutral
298
-
52,283
9,370
10,265
17.1
17.2
7.3
8.1
40.6
36.7
12.2
10.0
33.7
30.6
5.5
5.0
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
6,238
-
26,234
4,919
5,742
17.2
17.4
168.3
191.2
37.1
32.6
10.5
9.0
28.8
28.9
4.9
4.2
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
1,275
-
43,428
10,168
12,886
16.1
16.1
32.1
38.4
39.7
33.2
8.1
7.5
19.7
21.0
4.4
3.4
HUL
Neutral
876
-
189,485
34,940
38,957
17.5
17.7
20.8
24.7
42.1
35.5
46.8
37.4
110.5
114.2
5.2
4.7
ITC
Buy
317
409
253,983
41,068
45,068
37.8
37.4
13.9
15.9
22.8
19.9
7.6
6.7
34.1
33.8
5.8
5.3
Marico
Neutral
433
-
27,919
6,551
7,766
15.7
16.0
10.4
12.5
41.7
34.6
12.1
10.1
33.2
32.4
4.2
3.5
Nestle*
Accumulate
6,096
6,646
58,774
11,291
12,847
22.2
22.3
158.9
184.6
38.4
33.0
20.1
18.0
55.0
57.3
5.1
4.4
Tata Global
Accumulate
134
152
8,438
8,635
9,072
9.8
9.9
6.5
7.6
20.6
17.6
2.1
2.0
6.8
7.4
0.9
0.9
IT
HCL Tech^
Accumulate
987
1,132
138,819
42,038
47,503
23.5
23.5
56.4
62.9
17.5
15.7
4.1
3.1
23.2
19.8
2.9
2.4
Infosys
Accumulate
1,175
1,306
269,903
60,250
66,999
28.0
28.0
58.3
63.7
20.2
18.5
4.2
3.6
20.9
19.7
3.8
3.3
TCS
Buy
2,731
3,168
535,007
108,420
123,559
28.8
28.7
127.2
143.9
21.5
19.0
8.6
7.9
39.9
41.8
4.5
3.9
Tech Mahindra
Buy
560
646
53,865
25,566
28,890
16.0
17.0
26.3
31.9
21.3
17.6
3.8
3.3
17.9
18.6
1.9
1.6
Wipro
Buy
584
719
144,125
52,414
58,704
23.7
23.8
38.4
42.3
15.2
13.8
3.0
2.7
19.5
18.0
2.3
1.9
Media
D B Corp
Accumulate
317
356
5,826
2,241
2,495
27.8
27.9
21.8
25.6
14.6
12.4
3.8
3.4
26.7
28.5
2.5
2.3
HT Media
Neutral
88
-
2,046
2,495
2,603
11.2
11.2
7.3
8.6
12.0
10.2
1.0
0.9
7.4
8.1
0.3
0.3
Jagran Prakashan
Accumulate
143
156
4,662
1,939
2,122
26.0
26.0
8.3
9.2
17.2
15.5
2.9
2.7
17.5
17.1
2.4
2.1
Sun TV Network
Neutral
352
-
13,886
2,779
3,196
70.2
70.5
22.8
27.3
15.5
12.9
3.8
3.4
26.7
28.3
4.8
4.1
Market Outlook
August 20, 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Media
Hindustan Media
Buy
228
292
1,673
920
1,031
20.0
20.0
19.2
20.9
11.9
10.9
2.0
1.7
16.4
15.3
1.4
1.2
Ventures
Metals & Mining
Coal India
Buy
357
450
225,431
77,595
89,628
22.9
24.4
27.6
30.0
12.9
11.9
5.6
5.6
33.9
33.2
2.2
1.9
Hind. Zinc
Neutral
141
-
59,471
15,546
16,821
47.5
49.0
19.7
20.3
7.1
6.9
1.2
1.1
17.2
16.6
1.6
1.1
Hindalco
Neutral
86
-
17,821
112,328
119,817
7.7
7.9
16.3
20.1
5.3
4.3
0.4
0.4
8.0
8.5
0.6
0.5
JSW Steel
Neutral
974
-
23,552
48,125
53,595
18.8
21.0
46.9
97.5
20.8
10.0
1.0
0.9
4.4
9.5
1.3
1.2
NMDC
Neutral
96
-
38,101
12,544
13,330
59.5
59.7
16.3
16.5
5.9
5.8
1.1
1.0
5.1
9.9
1.8
1.8
SAIL
Neutral
58
-
23,769
56,365
63,383
6.9
8.0
7.1
8.2
8.1
7.1
0.5
0.5
7.0
7.1
1.0
0.9
Vedanta
Neutral
103
-
30,388
81,842
88,430
30.6
32.8
20.2
25.7
5.1
4.0
0.4
0.3
7.5
8.5
0.7
0.5
Tata Steel
Neutral
250
-
24,271
136,805
149,228
11.3
11.9
26.4
36.8
9.5
6.8
0.8
0.7
6.0
8.0
0.7
0.7
Oil & Gas
Cairn India
Neutral
152
-
28,423
12,617
14,513
33.7
40.0
25.5
27.7
6.0
5.5
0.4
0.4
7.4
7.7
0.9
0.7
GAIL
Neutral
330
-
41,891
75,595
85,554
8.6
8.0
31.8
36.1
10.4
9.1
1.1
1.1
10.7
11.4
0.7
0.6
ONGC
Neutral
261
-
223,213
174,773
192,517
22.7
24.8
34.6
38.2
7.5
6.8
1.1
1.0
14.2
14.9
1.4
1.2
Petronet LNG
Accumulate
185
210
13,898
39,007
40,785
3.8
4.2
9.2
11.0
20.3
16.9
2.3
2.1
11.6
12.7
0.4
0.4
Reliance Industries
Accumulate
953
1,050
308,498
339,083
384,014
7.8
9.5
75.7
94.5
12.6
10.1
1.2
1.2
10.7
12.2
1.2
1.1
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
731
-
13,775
2,601
3,115
21.2
20.2
20.8
23.9
35.1
30.6
11.3
8.5
37.2
31.8
5.3
4.4
Aurobindo Pharma
Neutral
817
-
47,727
14,435
16,600
22.6
22.6
36.1
41.2
22.6
19.8
6.7
5.1
34.5
29.3
3.7
3.1
Aventis*
Neutral
4,155
-
9,569
2,156
2,455
15.1
16.8
109.7
133.9
37.9
31.0
5.2
4.2
18.4
22.5
4.1
3.5
Cadila Healthcare
Neutral
2,004
-
41,037
10,224
11,840
20.0
21.0
71.0
85.6
28.2
23.4
7.6
6.0
30.1
28.5
4.1
3.4
Cipla
Neutral
696
-
55,888
14,051
16,515
20.4
18.7
26.6
28.4
26.2
24.5
4.4
3.8
18.2
16.5
4.0
3.3
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
4,232
-
72,147
17,903
20,842
22.7
22.8
160.5
189.5
26.4
22.3
5.4
4.4
22.2
21.7
4.0
3.4
Dishman Pharma
Buy
228
319
1,840
1,716
1,888
20.2
20.2
16.3
21.6
14.0
10.6
1.3
1.2
9.7
11.7
1.3
1.0
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
3,623
-
30,690
2,870
3,158
20.0
22.1
59.5
68.3
60.9
53.1
18.0
18.5
28.5
34.3
10.2
9.3
Indoco Remedies
Neutral
357
-
3,293
1,088
1,262
18.2
18.2
13.1
15.5
27.3
23.1
5.3
4.5
21.2
21.1
3.1
2.7
Ipca labs
Neutral
847
-
10,680
3,507
4,078
17.6
18.6
25.8
32.0
32.8
26.5
4.2
3.7
13.8
14.9
3.3
2.8
Lupin
Neutral
1,795
-
80,778
14,864
17,244
26.9
26.9
62.1
71.1
28.9
25.3
7.0
5.6
27.4
24.6
5.2
4.3
Sun Pharma
Neutral
927
-
223,137
28,163
32,610
25.8
30.7
17.4
26.9
53.3
34.5
5.1
4.4
13.0
16.6
7.4
6.2
Power
Tata Power
Neutral
67
-
18,229
38,302
38,404
14.1
13.1
5.1
6.0
13.1
11.3
1.3
1.2
9.2
10.3
1.4
1.3
NTPC
Buy
126
157
103,975
87,064
98,846
23.5
23.5
11.7
13.2
10.8
9.6
1.2
1.1
11.4
12.1
2.2
2.0
Power Grid
Buy
137
170
71,437
20,702
23,361
86.7
86.4
12.1
13.2
11.3
10.3
1.7
1.5
15.6
15.1
8.4
7.8
Market Outlook
August 20, 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
383
-
153,140
101,748
109,191
32.1
31.7
12.0
12.5
31.9
30.7
2.2
2.1
6.9
6.7
2.1
1.9
Idea Cellular
Accumulate
161
171
57,885
34,282
36,941
32.0
31.5
5.9
6.2
27.3
25.9
2.5
2.3
9.9
9.3
2.3
2.1
zOthers
Abbott India
Neutral
4,753
-
10,100
2,715
3,153
14.5
14.1
134.3
152.2
35.4
31.2
8.8
7.3
27.4
25.6
3.4
2.9
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
264
341
2,665
4,719
5,287
5.2
5.8
8.6
12.7
30.9
20.9
3.5
3.1
11.4
14.8
0.6
0.5
Finolex Cables
Neutral
251
-
3,844
2,728
3,036
10.8
11.0
14.4
16.8
17.5
15.0
2.7
2.3
15.2
15.3
1.2
1.0
Goodyear India*
Neutral
628
-
1,447
1,953
1,766
12.4
12.0
67.4
59.6
9.3
10.5
2.3
2.0
27.7
20.2
0.5
0.5
Hitachi
Neutral
1,387
-
3,773
1,806
2,112
9.0
9.2
28.6
29.1
48.5
47.7
12.1
9.7
28.1
22.6
2.2
1.8
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
322
-
5,824
1,620
1,847
11.5
11.5
7.3
8.5
44.1
38.0
5.7
5.3
13.3
14.4
3.5
3.0
MRF
Neutral
44,054
-
18,684
20,727
14,841
19.3
18.6
4,905.8
3,351.9
9.0
13.1
2.9
2.4
37.6
19.6
0.9
1.2
Page Industries
Neutral
14,565
-
16,245
1,929
2,450
19.8
20.1
229.9
299.0
63.4
48.7
28.0
19.4
52.1
47.1
8.5
6.6
Relaxo Footwears
Neutral
552
-
6,628
1,767
2,152
12.3
12.5
19.3
25.1
28.7
22.0
7.0
5.4
27.7
27.8
3.8
3.1
Siyaram Silk Mills
Accumulate
1,116
1,221
1,046
1,653
1,873
11.7
12.2
99.3
122.1
11.2
9.1
2.0
1.7
19.5
20.2
0.8
0.7
Styrolution ABS India*
Neutral
835
-
1,468
1,271
1,440
8.6
9.2
32.0
41.1
26.1
20.3
2.7
2.4
10.7
12.4
1.1
1.0
Tree House
Neutral
416
-
1,761
259
324
56.8
56.8
17.0
21.7
24.5
19.2
2.5
2.2
10.1
11.5
6.7
5.5
TVS Srichakra
Neutral
3,115
-
2,385
2,127
2,388
15.2
14.9
237.7
267.5
13.1
11.6
5.6
4.0
51.7
39.8
1.2
1.0
HSIL
Buy
292
434
2,111
2,085
2,436
18.5
18.6
21.7
28.9
13.5
10.1
1.4
1.2
10.0
12.1
1.1
0.9
Kirloskar Engines India
Accumulate
280
297
4,049
2,634
3,252
10.1
12.0
10.9
17.4
25.7
16.1
2.9
2.6
11.4
16.8
1.2
0.9
Ltd
M M Forgings
Buy
675
797
815
563
671
22.1
22.9
51.0
66.5
13.2
10.2
2.8
2.2
23.1
24.1
1.6
1.3
Banco Products (India)
Neutral
150
-
1,070
1,208
1,353
11.0
12.3
10.8
14.5
13.9
10.3
1.6
1.4
11.9
14.5
0.9
0.7
Competent Automobiles Neutral
186
-
114
1,007
1,114
3.1
3.1
23.7
28.2
7.9
6.6
1.1
1.0
13.9
14.6
0.1
0.1
Nilkamal
Neutral
1,033
-
1,541
1,948
2,147
10.6
10.3
60.0
67.0
17.2
15.4
2.7
2.3
16.8
16.1
0.8
0.7
Visaka Industries
Neutral
174
-
276
1,158
1,272
8.6
9.5
23.7
32.7
7.4
5.3
0.7
0.7
10.1
12.5
0.4
0.3
Transport Corporation of
Neutral
306
-
2,330
2,830
3,350
8.8
9.0
14.4
18.3
21.3
16.7
3.3
2.9
15.4
17.1
0.9
0.8
India
Elecon Engineering
Accumulate
81
87
886
1,452
1,596
14.0
14.7
4.4
6.2
18.4
13.1
1.5
1.4
8.6
11.2
0.9
0.8
Surya Roshni
Buy
143
183
626
2,992
3,223
8.3
8.5
14.7
18.3
9.7
7.8
0.9
0.8
9.8
11.0
0.5
0.5
MT Educare
Neutral
139
-
552
275
355
18.3
17.3
7.4
8.8
18.8
15.7
3.8
3.3
20.2
21.1
1.9
1.4
Radico Khaitan
Buy
93
112
1,239
1,565
1,687
11.9
12.4
5.4
6.6
17.2
14.1
1.4
1.3
8.0
9.0
1.3
1.2
Garware Wall Ropes
Accumulate
298
390
652
875
983
10.4
10.6
23.1
27.8
12.9
10.7
1.8
1.6
14.1
14.8
0.9
0.7
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on August 19, 2015
Market Outlook
August 20, 2015
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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