Market Outlook
February 19, 2016
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are expected to open marginally negative tracking the SGX Nifty and
BSE Sensex
1.1
267
23,649
some of its Asian peers.
Nifty
1.2
83
7,192
After initially showing a lack of direction, U.S. markets have moved mostly lower
Mid Cap
0.6
62
9,814
over the course of the trading session on Thursday. The weakness that emerged on
Small Cap
0.6
58
9,861
Wall Street was partly due to a pullback by the price of crude oil.
Bankex
1.1
177
16,221
The European markets erased earlier firm gains and closed almost flat on Thursday,
tracking a roller-coaster ride in oil futures after fresh comments from Saudi Arabia
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
and U.S. inventory data.
Dow Jones
(0.2)
(40)
16,413
Indian markets joined a global rally on Thursday, although trading remained a little
Nasdaq
(1.0)
(47)
4,488
bit volatile amid weakness in the rupee, which is nearing record lows on continued
FTSE
(1.0)
(58)
5,972
foreign fund outflows.
Nikkei
2.3
360
16,197
News & Result Analysis
Hang Seng
2.3
439
19,363
Rallis India gets green nod for `200cr project in Gujarat
Shanghai Com
(0.2)
(4)
2,863
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Advances
1,407
696
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Declines
1,133
857
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Unchanged
157
56
Refer P4 onwards
Top Picks
Volumes (` Cr)
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
BSE
3,535
Amara Raja Batteries Auto & Auto Ancillary
Buy
870
1,040
19.6
NSE
15,895
HCL Tech
IT
Buy
844
1,038
23.0
LIC Housing Finance Financials
Buy
409
592
44.8
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Bharat Electronics
Capital Goods
Buy
1,145
1,414
23.5
FII
(789)
(4,969)
(13,340)
Navkar Corporation Others
Buy
160
265
65.5
MFs
173
2,092
79,775
More Top Picks on Pg3
Key Upcoming Events
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Previous
Consensus
Date
Region
Event Description
Reading
Expectations
Aban
170
12.6
Feb 19 US
Consumer price index (%)
(0.1)
(0.1)
Jisljaleqs
52
9.4
Feb 22 Germany
PMI Services
55.0
-
Shreecem
10,850
8.2
Feb 22 Germany
PMI Manufacturing
52.3
-
Crompgreav
130
7.1
Feb 23 Germany
GDP (YoY)
2.10
-
Cox&Kings
160
6.9
6.(
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Gppl
147
(4.6)
Mmtc
36
(4.5)
Balkrisind
573
(4.5)
Hindcopper
44
(4.2)
Niittech
479
(4.1)
As on February 18, 2016
Market Outlook
February 19, 2016
Rallis India gets green nod for `200cr project in Gujarat
Ago-chemical firm Rallis India has received green clearance for setting up of a
`200cr manufacturing unit in Gujarat. The Union Environment Ministry has given
the green signal based on the recommendations of the Expert Appraisal
Committee (EAC). As per the proposal, the company will set up a manufacturing
plant with a capacity to produce 52,000 tonnes per annum (TPA) agrochemical
technical products and 10,000 TPA of agrochemical formulations along with 6
MW captive power plant at Dahej SEZ in Bharuch district. Rallis India, a Tata
Enterprise, has three technical manufacturing plants and one formulation plant in
various parts in various parts of Gujarat and Maharashtra.
The company manufactures agricultural products for crop protection in different
categories like insecticides, fungicides and herbicides. Rallis is also in the business
of producing seeds, plant growth nutrients and agri services. Currently we have
neutral rating on stock.
Economic and Political News
Govt nod for building of 80,000 houses for poor in 7 states
Make in India Week nets `15.2 lakh crore investment commitments
Digital agri market platform to be launched on April 14: PM Modi
Corporate News
Thermal Powertech inks 8-year pact with Telangana discoms
Pincon Spirit acquires Singapore based Orbitol Solutions
Tata Global looks to accelerate Starbucks store expansion
Market Outlook
February 19, 2016
Top Picks ★★★★★
Large Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
To outpace battery industry growth due to better technological
Amara Raja Batteries
14,857
870
1,040
19.6
products leading to market share gains in both the automotive
OEM and replacement segments.
Earnings to grow strongly given the MHCV cyclical upturn.
Ashok Leyland
25,542
90
111
23.7
Focus on exports and LCV's provides additional growth
avenue.
Uptick in defense capex by government when coupled with
Bharat Electronics
27,474
1,145
1,414
23.5
BELs strong market positioning, indicate that good times are
ahead for BEL.
The stock is trading at attractive valuations and is factoring all
HCL Tech
1,18,918
844
1,038
23.0
the bad news.
Strong visibility for a robust 20% earnings trajectory, coupled
HDFC Bank
2,49,982
990
1,262
27.5
with high quality of earnings on account of high quality retail
business and strategic focus on highly rated corporates.
Back on the growth trend, expect a long term growth of 14%
Infosys
2,57,878
1,123
1,347
20.0
to be a US$20bn in FY2020.
LICHF continues to grow its retail loan book at a healthy pace
with improvement in asset quality. We expect the company to
LIC Housing Finance
20,626
409
592
44.8
post a healthy loan book which is likely to reflect in a strong
earnings growth.
Huge bid pipeline of re-development works at Delhi and other
NBCC
10,290
858
1,089
27.0
State Governments and opportunity from Smart City, positions
NBCC to report strong growth, going forward.
New launches to enable outpace industry growth; margins
TVS Motors
13,535
285
330
15.8
expansion to boost earnings.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Mid Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favourable outlook for the AC industry to augur well for
Cooling products business which is out pacing the market
Blue Star
3,009
335
439
31.2
growth. EMPPAC division's profitability to improve once
operating environment turns around.
Economic recovery to have favourable impact on advertising &
circulation revenue growth. Further, the acquisition of a radio
Jagran Prakashan
4,971
152
189
24.3
business (Radio City) would also boost the company's revenue
growth.
Massive capacity expansion along with rail advantage at ICD
Navkar Corporation
2,284
160
265
65.5
as well CFS augurs well for the company
Earnings boost on back of stable material prices and
Radico Khaitan
1,310
98
156
58.5
favourable pricing environment. Valuation discount to peers
provides additional comfort
Strong brands and distribution network would boost growth
Siyaram Silk Mills
942
1,005
1,354
34.7
going ahead. Stock currently trades at an inexpensive
valuation.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
February 19, 2016
Key Upcoming Events
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
Feb 19, 2016
7:00PM
US
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Jan
(0.10)
(0.10)
8:30PM
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value
Feb A
(6.30)
(6.60)
Feb 22, 2016
2:00PM
Germany
PMI Services
Value
Feb P
55.00
--
2:00PM
Germany
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Feb P
52.30
--
Feb 23, 2016
12:30PM
Germany
GDP nsa (YoY)
% Change
4Q F
2.10
--
8:30PM
US
Existing home sales
Million
Jan
5.46
5.40
8:30PM
US
Consumer Confidence
S.A./ 1985=100
Feb
98.10
97.50
Feb 24, 2016
8:30PM
US
New home sales
Thousands
Jan
544.00
525.00
Feb 25, 2016
3:00PM
UK
GDP (YoY)
% Change
4Q P
1.90
--
3:30PM
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
%
Jan F
0.40
--
Feb 26, 2016
7:00PM
US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
4Q S
0.70
0.40
Mar 1, 2016
3:00PM
UK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Feb
52.90
--
6:30AM
China
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Feb
49.40
--
2:25PM
Germany
Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Feb
(20.00)
--
Mar 4, 2016
7:00PM
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Feb
151.00
--
7:00PM
US
Unnemployment rate
%
Feb
4.90
--
Mar 8, 2016
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Feb
(11.20)
--
3:30PM
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
% Change
4Q P
0.30
--
Mar 9, 2016
3:00PM
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Jan
(0.40)
--
Mar 10, 2016
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Feb
(11.00)
--
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Feb
(13.60)
--
6:15PM
Euro Zone
ECB announces interest rates
%
Mar 10
0.05
--
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
February 19, 2016
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
9.0
8.4
12.0
9.9
7.5
7.5
10.0
8.0
7.4
7.3
7.0
7.0
6.7
6.7
6.6
8.0
6.3
7.0
6.4
6.0
4.8
4.3
4.2
3.8
6.0
2.8
3.0
4.0
2.5
2.5
4.7
5.0
2.0
(3.2)
-
4.0
(2.0)
3.0
(4.0)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
6.0
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.6
5.2
5.3
54.0
4.9
5.0
5.0
5.0
4.4
3.7
3.7
52.0
4.0
3.0
50.0
2.0
48.0
1.0
46.0
-
44.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
0.0
8.00
(5.0)
7.50
7.00
(10.0)
6.50
(15.0)
6.00
5.50
(20.0)
5.00
(25.0)
4.50
4.00
(30.0)
3.50
(35.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
February 19, 2016
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
6.8
5.3
6.0
5.0
4.7
4.0
2.9
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.3
1.6
2.0
1.0
(4.5)
(4.1)
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(6.0)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2015 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
7.3
8.0
6.8
6.0
4.7
4.7
4.0
2.5
2.5
2.6
1.4
1.5
2.0
1.2
0.6
(3.0)
(3.8)
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(6.0)
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Market Outlook
February 19, 2016
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
41,478
5.0
(10.2)
(15.0)
Russia
Micex
1,807
9.8
3.9
0.7
India
Nifty
7,192
(2.2)
(8.2)
(18.3)
China
Shanghai Composite
2,863
(3.2)
(20.3)
(10.1)
South Africa
Top 40
44,461
3.7
(4.9)
(4.3)
Mexico
Mexbol
43,517
7.2
(1.5)
1.1
Indonesia
LQ45
839
8.1
10.5
(9.2)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,680
2.3
0.9
(7.3)
Thailand
SET 50
822
4.0
(7.9)
(22.7)
USA
Dow Jones
16,413
2.7
(4.8)
(8.7)
UK
FTSE
5,972
1.6
(4.7)
(13.6)
Japan
Nikkei
16,197
(4.5)
(17.8)
(8.6)
Germany
DAX
9,464
(2.1)
(11.7)
(14.4)
France
CAC
4,240
(0.8)
(13.6)
(13.2)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Stock Watch
February 19, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis
Neutral
151
-
2,942
2,097
2,415
14.4
14.4
9.5
11.0
15.9
13.8
3.2
2.7
21.1
21.3
1.4
1.2
United Phosphorus
Buy
394
480
16,881
12,500
14,375
18.3
18.3
29.8
35.9
13.2
11.0
2.4
2.1
20.0
20.3
1.4
1.2
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Ashok Leyland
Buy
90
111
25,542
17,995
21,544
11.4
11.6
3.4
4.7
26.4
19.1
4.6
4.3
17.7
22.2
1.4
1.1
Bajaj Auto
Accumulate
2,406
2,585
69,607
22,709
25,860
20.9
20.1
129.0
143.6
18.7
16.8
5.7
4.9
30.7
29.4
2.5
2.2
Bharat Forge
Buy
771
943
17,945
7,867
8,881
20.0
20.3
34.4
41.0
22.4
18.8
4.3
3.6
21.1
20.9
2.4
2.1
Eicher Motors
Accumulate
18,695
20,044
50,777
15,556
16,747
15.5
17.3
464.8
597.5
40.2
31.3
14.7
10.8
36.2
34.3
3.2
2.9
Gabriel India
Buy
79
101
1,134
1,415
1,544
8.7
9.0
4.6
5.4
17.2
14.6
3.1
2.8
18.1
18.9
0.8
0.7
Hero Motocorp
Accumulate
2,621
2,864
52,337
28,244
30,532
15.5
15.9
156.7
168.5
16.7
15.6
6.7
5.7
39.9
36.4
1.6
1.5
Jamna Auto Industries Buy
132
160
1,056
1,281
1,473
11.2
11.5
7.6
9.2
17.4
14.4
4.4
3.6
25.4
25.2
0.9
0.7
L G Balakrishnan & Bros Neutral
414
-
649
1,254
1,394
11.6
11.8
35.9
41.7
11.5
9.9
1.6
1.4
13.5
13.8
0.6
0.6
Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate
1,211
1,364
75,193
38,416
42,904
13.7
13.9
54.8
63.4
22.1
19.1
3.4
3.0
15.4
15.8
1.6
1.4
Maruti
Neutral
3,655
-
110,407
57,865
68,104
16.4
16.7
176.3
225.5
20.7
16.2
4.0
3.4
19.4
21.2
1.7
1.4
Minda Industries
Buy
769
1,047
1,221
2,523
2,890
8.7
9.0
55.0
65.4
14.0
11.8
2.7
2.2
19.3
18.7
0.6
0.5
Motherson Sumi
Buy
224
313
29,583
39,343
45,100
8.8
9.1
10.1
12.5
22.1
17.9
7.0
5.5
35.3
34.4
0.8
0.7
Rane Brake Lining
Buy
347
465
274
454
511
11.5
12.0
25.2
31.0
13.8
11.2
2.1
1.9
14.9
16.6
0.7
0.7
Setco Automotive
Neutral
29
-
384
594
741
12.7
13.7
1.7
3.2
16.9
9.0
1.8
1.5
10.4
16.9
1.1
0.9
Tata Motors
Buy
314
371
90,572
259,686
273,957
13.0
13.4
25.9
29.5
12.1
10.6
1.6
1.4
8.0
9.0
0.5
0.5
TVS Motor
Buy
285
330
13,535
11,263
13,122
6.9
8.5
9.2
15.0
31.0
19.0
7.1
5.6
22.7
29.6
1.2
1.0
Amara Raja Batteries
Buy
870
1,040
14,857
4,892
5,871
17.4
17.6
28.8
37.1
30.2
23.4
7.1
5.6
23.4
24.1
2.9
2.4
Exide Industries
Buy
129
162
10,944
6,950
7,784
14.4
14.8
6.6
7.3
19.5
17.6
2.5
2.2
12.6
12.8
1.2
1.1
Apollo Tyres
Accumulate
160
171
8,157
12,146
12,689
16.8
16.0
21.2
19.0
7.6
8.4
1.3
1.1
16.5
13.0
0.7
0.8
Ceat
Buy
937
1,119
3,791
6,041
6,597
14.1
13.7
99.5
111.9
9.4
8.4
1.9
1.6
19.6
18.5
0.8
0.7
JK Tyres
Neutral
82
-
1,851
7,446
7,669
15.2
14.0
19.6
18.4
4.2
4.4
1.1
0.9
25.2
19.5
0.6
0.5
Swaraj Engines
Buy
793
919
985
552
630
14.2
14.7
44.6
54.1
17.8
14.7
4.1
3.8
23.2
25.6
1.6
1.4
Subros
Neutral
82
-
495
1,293
1,527
11.8
11.9
4.2
6.7
19.6
12.3
1.5
1.4
7.7
11.5
0.7
0.6
Indag Rubber
Neutral
158
-
414
283
329
17.0
17.2
13.0
15.4
12.2
10.2
2.7
2.2
21.8
21.6
1.2
1.0
Capital Goods
ACE
Neutral
35
-
343
660
839
4.7
8.2
1.0
3.9
34.7
8.9
1.1
1.0
3.2
11.3
0.7
0.5
BEML
Neutral
940
-
3,913
3,277
4,006
6.0
8.9
29.2
64.3
32.2
14.6
1.8
1.6
5.7
11.7
1.3
1.0
Bharat Electronics
Buy
1,145
1,414
27,474
7,737
8,634
16.8
17.2
54.0
61.5
21.2
18.6
3.0
2.7
39.3
45.6
2.6
2.2
Stock Watch
February 19, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Capital Goods
Voltas
Buy
235
353
7,791
5,363
5,963
8.0
9.1
11.0
13.8
21.4
17.1
3.3
2.9
16.2
17.9
1.4
1.2
BGR Energy
Neutral
98
-
704
3,615
3,181
9.5
9.4
16.7
12.4
5.8
7.9
0.6
0.5
10.0
7.0
0.6
0.8
BHEL
Neutral
104
-
25,406
33,722
35,272
10.8
11.7
10.5
14.2
9.9
7.3
0.7
0.7
7.0
9.0
0.8
0.8
Blue Star
Buy
335
439
3,009
3,548
3,977
6.3
6.9
13.7
17.2
24.4
19.5
6.2
4.0
26.1
25.4
1.0
0.8
Crompton Greaves
Neutral
130
-
8,126
13,484
14,687
4.9
6.2
4.5
7.1
28.8
18.3
2.0
1.9
7.2
10.8
0.7
0.6
Greaves Cotton
Neutral
123
-
3,012
1,655
1,755
16.6
16.8
7.4
7.8
16.7
15.8
3.3
3.2
21.1
20.6
1.8
1.7
Inox Wind
Buy
227
458
5,046
4,980
5,943
17.0
17.5
26.6
31.6
8.6
7.2
2.6
1.9
35.0
30.0
1.2
0.9
KEC International
Neutral
103
-
2,657
8,791
9,716
6.1
6.8
5.4
8.2
19.1
12.6
1.9
1.8
10.0
14.0
0.5
0.5
Thermax
Neutral
800
-
9,533
6,413
7,525
7.4
8.5
30.5
39.3
26.2
20.4
4.0
3.5
15.0
17.0
1.4
1.2
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,260
-
23,655
13,151
14,757
16.4
18.3
63.9
83.4
19.7
15.1
2.5
2.3
13.3
16.1
1.6
1.3
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
195
-
30,316
11,564
12,556
19.4
20.7
8.9
10.1
22.0
19.3
2.8
2.6
12.8
13.8
2.2
2.0
HeidelbergCement
Neutral
64
-
1,450
1,772
1,926
13.3
15.4
1.0
3.0
64.0
21.3
1.6
1.5
2.6
7.9
1.4
1.2
India Cements
Neutral
72
-
2,196
4,216
4,840
18.0
19.5
4.0
9.9
17.9
7.2
0.7
0.7
4.0
9.5
0.8
0.7
JK Cement
Buy
452
615
3,162
3,661
4,742
10.1
15.8
18.0
61.0
25.1
7.4
1.8
1.6
7.5
22.9
1.3
1.0
J K Lakshmi Cement
Neutral
263
-
3,091
2,947
3,616
16.7
19.9
11.5
27.2
22.8
9.7
2.2
1.9
9.8
20.8
1.4
1.1
Mangalam Cements
Neutral
162
-
433
1,053
1,347
10.5
13.3
8.4
26.0
19.3
6.2
0.8
0.8
4.3
12.5
0.8
0.6
Orient Cement
Neutral
133
-
2,722
1,854
2,524
21.2
22.2
7.7
11.1
17.3
12.0
2.5
2.1
13.3
15.7
2.2
1.5
Ramco Cements
Neutral
371
-
8,836
4,036
4,545
20.8
21.3
15.1
18.8
24.6
19.7
3.0
2.7
12.9
14.3
2.7
2.3
Shree Cement^
Neutral
10,918
-
38,037
7,150
8,742
26.7
28.6
228.0
345.5
47.9
31.6
7.1
5.9
15.7
20.3
4.6
3.7
UltraTech Cement
Accumulate
2,795
3,107
76,696
24
30,023
19.1
21.6
89.0
132.0
31.4
21.2
3.6
3.2
12.2
15.9
3,233.5
2.6
Construction
ITNL
Neutral
67
-
2,211
7,360
8,825
34.0
35.9
7.0
9.0
9.6
7.5
0.3
0.3
3.2
3.7
3.7
3.6
KNR Constructions
Buy
448
673
1,260
937
1,470
14.3
14.0
33.5
38.6
13.4
11.6
2.0
1.8
15.4
15.4
1.4
0.9
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,149
1,310
107,050
58,870
65,708
8.3
10.3
42.0
53.0
27.4
21.7
1.9
1.7
8.8
11.2
2.0
1.8
Gujarat Pipavav Port
Neutral
147
-
7,104
629
684
51.0
52.2
6.4
5.9
23.0
24.9
3.0
2.8
15.9
12.7
11.5
10.4
MBL Infrastructures
Buy
138
285
573
2,313
2,797
12.2
14.6
19.0
20.0
7.3
6.9
0.8
0.7
11.3
10.6
1.0
0.9
Nagarjuna Const.
Neutral
66
-
3,650
7,892
8,842
8.8
9.1
3.0
5.3
21.9
12.4
1.1
1.0
5.0
8.5
0.7
0.6
PNC Infratech
Accumulate
515
558
2,642
1,873
2,288
13.2
13.5
24.0
32.0
21.5
16.1
2.1
1.9
12.1
12.3
1.5
1.2
Simplex Infra
Neutral
222
-
1,099
5,955
6,829
10.3
10.5
16.0
31.0
13.9
7.2
0.7
0.7
5.3
9.9
0.7
0.6
Power Mech Projects
Neutral
572
-
842
1,539
1,801
12.8
12.7
59.0
72.1
9.7
7.9
1.5
1.2
18.6
16.8
0.5
0.5
Stock Watch
February 19, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Construction
Sadbhav Engineering
Neutral
237
-
4,072
3,481
4,219
10.7
10.8
8.0
12.0
29.7
19.8
2.8
2.4
10.3
13.5
1.5
1.2
NBCC
Buy
858
1,089
10,290
5,816
7,382
6.9
7.7
29.6
39.8
29.0
21.6
5.2
4.1
24.1
26.7
1.5
1.1
MEP Infra
Neutral
42
-
688
1,956
1,876
28.1
30.5
1.3
3.0
32.5
14.1
6.8
4.6
21.2
32.8
1.8
1.7
SIPL
Neutral
82
-
2,879
675
1,042
62.4
64.7
-
-
3.1
3.5
-
-
15.8
10.7
Financials
Allahabad Bank
Neutral
43
-
2,567
8,569
9,392
2.8
2.9
16.3
27.5
2.6
1.6
0.3
0.2
7.6
11.9
-
-
Axis Bank
Buy
398
494
94,716
26,473
31,527
3.5
3.6
35.7
43.5
11.1
9.2
1.9
1.6
17.9
18.9
-
-
Bank of Baroda
Neutral
139
-
31,982
18,485
21,025
1.9
2.0
13.5
21.1
10.3
6.6
0.8
0.7
7.3
10.6
-
-
Bank of India
Neutral
86
-
6,970
15,972
17,271
1.9
2.0
15.3
33.4
5.6
2.6
0.3
0.2
3.6
7.6
-
-
Canara Bank
Neutral
172
-
9,356
15,441
16,945
2.0
2.1
46.6
70.4
3.7
2.5
0.3
0.3
8.0
11.2
-
-
Dena Bank
Neutral
29
-
1,839
3,440
3,840
2.1
2.3
7.3
10.0
3.9
2.8
0.3
0.2
6.1
7.9
-
-
Federal Bank
Neutral
47
-
8,056
3,477
3,999
3.0
3.0
5.0
6.2
9.4
7.5
0.9
0.9
10.6
11.9
-
-
HDFC
Neutral
1,070
-
168,948
10,358
11,852
3.3
3.3
41.1
47.0
26.1
22.8
5.0
4.5
24.7
24.9
-
-
HDFC Bank
Buy
990
1,262
249,982
38,309
47,302
4.3
4.3
49.3
61.1
20.1
16.2
3.5
3.0
18.5
19.7
-
-
ICICI Bank
Buy
196
254
113,990
34,279
39,262
3.3
3.3
21.0
24.4
9.4
8.1
1.6
1.3
14.4
14.7
-
-
IDBI Bank
Neutral
54
-
10,184
9,625
10,455
1.8
1.8
8.5
14.2
6.3
3.8
0.4
0.4
5.9
9.3
-
-
Indian Bank
Neutral
87
-
4,167
6,160
6,858
2.5
2.5
24.5
29.8
3.5
2.9
0.3
0.3
7.7
8.6
-
-
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
409
592
20,626
3,101
3,745
2.5
2.5
33.0
40.2
12.4
10.2
2.3
2.0
19.7
20.5
-
-
Oriental Bank
Neutral
82
-
2,457
7,643
8,373
2.4
2.4
37.2
45.4
2.2
1.8
0.2
0.2
8.2
9.4
-
-
Punjab Natl.Bank
Neutral
72
-
14,226
23,638
26,557
2.8
2.8
17.9
27.2
4.1
2.7
0.4
0.3
8.5
12.0
-
-
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
17
-
2,316
1,965
2,185
2.5
2.5
2.5
3.3
6.9
5.2
0.7
0.6
9.5
11.7
-
-
St Bk of India
Buy
160
202
123,855
82,520
93,299
2.7
2.8
20.0
24.5
8.0
6.5
0.9
0.8
11.5
12.8
-
-
Union Bank
Neutral
114
-
7,844
12,646
14,129
2.3
2.4
31.0
39.1
3.7
2.9
0.4
0.3
9.8
11.4
-
-
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
31
-
2,689
3,536
3,827
1.9
1.9
5.5
6.7
5.7
4.7
0.5
0.4
7.8
8.8
-
-
Yes Bank
Accumulate
715
767
30,026
7,190
9,011
3.2
3.3
58.2
69.7
12.3
10.3
2.2
1.9
19.2
19.6
-
-
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
836
-
80,184
16,553
19,160
16.0
16.2
17.7
21.5
47.3
38.9
12.6
11.3
29.4
31.2
4.8
4.1
Britannia
Neutral
2,750
-
32,992
8,481
9,795
14.0
14.1
65.5
78.3
42.0
35.1
19.9
16.3
38.3
41.2
3.6
3.1
Colgate
Neutral
844
-
22,960
4,836
5,490
19.5
19.7
48.5
53.2
17.4
15.9
12.8
11.1
99.8
97.5
4.6
4.0
Dabur India
Accumulate
243
267
42,826
9,370
10,265
17.1
17.2
7.3
8.1
33.2
30.1
10.0
8.1
33.7
30.6
4.4
4.0
GlaxoSmith Con*
Accumulate
5,588
6,118
23,502
4,919
5,742
17.2
17.4
168.3
191.2
33.2
29.2
9.4
8.0
28.8
28.9
4.3
3.7
Stock Watch
February 19, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FMCG
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
1,205
-
41,045
10,168
12,886
16.1
16.1
32.1
38.4
37.6
31.4
7.6
7.1
19.7
21.0
4.0
3.2
HUL
Neutral
827
-
178,866
34,940
38,957
17.5
17.7
20.8
24.7
39.7
33.5
44.2
35.3
110.5
114.2
4.8
4.3
ITC
Buy
305
359
245,127
36,804
38,776
37.9
37.9
12.2
12.9
25.0
23.6
6.9
6.1
27.7
25.8
6.1
5.8
Marico
Neutral
232
-
29,893
6,551
7,766
15.7
16.0
10.4
12.5
22.3
18.5
6.5
5.4
33.2
32.4
4.4
3.7
Nestle*
Buy
5,179
6,646
49,929
11,291
12,847
22.2
22.3
158.9
184.6
32.6
28.1
17.0
15.3
55.0
57.3
4.2
3.6
Tata Global
Buy
105
144
6,598
8,635
9,072
9.8
9.9
6.5
7.6
16.1
13.8
1.6
1.5
6.8
7.4
0.7
0.7
IT
HCL Tech^
Buy
844
1,038
118,918
42,038
47,503
21.2
21.5
51.5
57.7
16.4
14.6
3.6
2.7
21.5
18.8
2.4
1.9
Infosys
Buy
1,123
1,347
257,878
61,850
69,981
27.5
27.5
59.4
65.7
18.9
17.1
4.0
3.4
21.2
20.1
3.3
2.8
TCS
Buy
2,315
2,854
456,213
108,487
122,590
28.3
28.5
122.8
138.4
18.9
16.7
7.2
6.5
38.0
38.9
3.7
3.3
Tech Mahindra
Buy
429
646
41,541
25,566
28,890
16.0
17.0
26.3
31.9
16.3
13.5
2.9
2.5
17.9
18.6
1.4
1.2
Wipro
Buy
541
680
133,668
50,808
56,189
23.7
23.8
37.3
40.7
14.5
13.3
2.8
2.5
19.2
17.7
2.0
1.7
Media
D B Corp
Buy
309
356
5,669
2,241
2,495
27.8
27.9
21.8
25.6
14.2
12.1
3.7
3.3
26.7
28.5
2.5
2.2
HT Media
Neutral
80
-
1,856
2,495
2,603
11.2
11.2
7.3
8.6
10.9
9.3
0.9
0.8
7.4
8.1
0.2
0.2
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
152
189
4,971
2,170
2,355
27.2
26.2
8.9
9.9
17.1
15.4
3.6
3.1
20.9
20.5
2.2
2.1
Sun TV Network
Neutral
333
-
13,123
2,779
3,196
70.2
70.5
22.8
27.3
14.6
12.2
3.6
3.3
26.7
28.3
4.5
3.9
Hindustan Media
Neutral
269
-
1,972
920
1,031
20.0
20.0
19.2
20.9
14.0
12.9
2.3
2.0
16.4
15.3
1.7
1.5
Ventures
Metals & Mining
Coal India
Buy
317
380
200,418
76,167
84,130
19.9
22.3
22.4
25.8
14.2
12.3
5.1
5.0
35.5
41.0
1.9
1.7
Hind. Zinc
Accumulate
165
175
69,739
14,641
14,026
50.4
50.4
17.7
16.0
9.4
10.3
1.4
1.3
16.2
13.2
2.3
2.2
Hindalco
Neutral
69
-
14,228
104,356
111,186
8.7
9.5
6.7
11.1
10.3
6.2
0.4
0.4
3.5
5.9
0.7
0.6
JSW Steel
Neutral
1,057
-
25,542
42,308
45,147
16.4
20.7
(10.3)
49.5
21.4
1.2
1.1
(1.0)
5.6
1.6
1.5
NMDC
Neutral
89
-
35,246
8,237
10,893
46.6
44.5
10.0
11.7
8.9
7.6
1.0
0.9
12.5
13.0
4.1
3.1
SAIL
Neutral
36
-
14,786
45,915
53,954
7.2
10.5
1.5
4.4
23.8
8.2
0.3
0.3
2.3
4.1
1.0
0.9
Vedanta
Neutral
76
-
22,487
71,445
81,910
26.2
26.3
12.9
19.2
5.9
4.0
0.4
0.4
7.2
8.9
0.8
0.6
Tata Steel
Neutral
251
-
24,329
126,760
137,307
8.9
11.3
6.4
23.1
39.4
10.9
0.8
0.8
2.0
7.1
0.8
0.7
Oil & Gas
Cairn India
Neutral
131
-
24,495
11,323
12,490
49.4
51.0
20.7
20.7
6.3
6.3
0.4
0.4
6.4
6.1
1.2
0.5
GAIL
Neutral
324
-
41,054
64,856
70,933
9.1
9.6
24.0
28.9
13.5
11.2
1.2
1.1
8.8
9.6
0.8
0.7
ONGC
Neutral
209
-
178,681
154,564
167,321
36.8
37.4
28.6
32.5
7.3
6.4
0.9
0.9
12.7
13.5
1.3
1.2
Petronet LNG
Neutral
244
-
18,334
29,691
31,188
5.8
6.2
12.8
13.4
19.1
18.2
2.9
2.5
15.8
14.8
0.7
0.6
Indian Oil Corp
Buy
391
455
94,994
359,607
402,760
5.9
6.1
42.5
48.7
9.2
8.0
1.2
1.1
14.1
14.4
0.4
0.3
Stock Watch
February 19, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Oil & Gas
Reliance Industries
Buy
941
1,150
304,876
304,775
344,392
12.6
13.4
91.3
102.6
10.3
9.2
1.2
1.1
11.8
12.0
0.9
0.8
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
618
-
11,652
3,274
3,802
26.9
19.4
35.0
28.7
17.7
21.5
7.8
5.9
55.6
31.2
3.5
2.9
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
667
856
38,996
14,923
17,162
22.0
23.0
35.7
42.8
18.7
15.6
5.5
4.1
34.0
30.2
3.0
2.5
Aventis*
Neutral
4,294
-
9,889
2,082
2,371
17.4
20.8
118.2
151.5
36.3
28.3
5.3
4.3
19.9
25.5
4.3
3.6
Cadila Healthcare
Accumulate
322
352
32,985
10,224
11,840
21.0
22.0
14.6
17.6
22.1
18.3
6.1
4.7
30.8
29.0
3.2
2.7
Cipla
Buy
525
636
42,205
14,211
16,611
20.6
19.0
27.0
28.9
19.5
18.2
3.3
2.8
18.4
16.8
2.9
2.4
Dr Reddy's
Buy
3,095
3,933
52,780
16,838
19,575
25.0
23.1
167.5
178.8
18.5
17.3
3.9
3.3
23.1
20.4
2.9
2.5
Dishman Pharma
Neutral
312
-
2,521
1,733
1,906
21.5
21.5
17.0
19.9
18.4
15.7
1.9
1.7
10.5
11.2
2.0
1.7
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
3,201
-
27,109
2,870
3,158
20.0
22.1
59.5
68.3
53.8
46.9
15.9
16.3
28.5
34.3
8.9
8.2
Indoco Remedies
Neutral
259
-
2,387
1,033
1,199
15.9
18.2
9.4
13.6
27.6
19.1
4.1
3.5
15.7
19.7
2.4
2.1
Ipca labs
Buy
630
900
7,948
3,363
3,909
12.9
18.6
13.4
28.0
47.0
22.5
3.4
2.9
7.4
14.0
2.5
2.2
Lupin
Neutral
1,777
-
80,067
13,092
16,561
25.0
27.0
50.4
68.3
35.3
26.0
7.3
5.8
22.8
24.7
5.7
4.4
Sun Pharma
Accumulate
869
950
209,146
28,163
32,610
25.8
30.7
17.4
26.9
50.0
32.3
4.7
4.1
13.0
16.6
6.8
5.6
Power
Tata Power
Neutral
59
-
16,011
35,923
37,402
22.6
22.8
4.1
5.2
14.6
11.5
1.1
1.0
7.5
9.3
1.4
1.3
NTPC
Buy
127
157
105,047
87,064
98,846
23.5
23.5
11.7
13.2
10.9
9.7
1.2
1.1
11.4
12.1
2.2
2.0
Power Grid
Buy
140
170
73,164
20,702
23,361
86.7
86.4
12.1
13.2
11.6
10.6
1.7
1.5
15.6
15.1
8.4
7.9
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
321
-
128,396
101,748
109,191
32.1
31.7
12.0
12.5
26.8
25.7
1.8
1.7
6.9
6.7
1.9
1.7
Idea Cellular
Neutral
108
-
38,776
34,282
36,941
32.0
31.5
5.9
6.2
18.3
17.4
1.7
1.5
9.9
9.3
1.7
1.6
zOthers
Abbott India
Neutral
4,781
-
10,158
2,715
3,153
14.5
14.1
134.3
152.2
35.6
31.4
8.9
7.3
27.4
25.6
3.4
2.8
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
168
237
1,694
4,719
5,287
5.2
5.8
8.6
12.7
19.6
13.3
2.2
2.0
11.4
14.8
0.4
0.3
Finolex Cables
Neutral
236
-
3,613
2,520
2,883
12.2
12.0
12.7
14.2
18.6
16.6
2.5
2.3
13.6
13.5
1.1
0.9
Goodyear India*
Buy
475
582
1,095
1,800
1,600
11.7
11.5
58.7
52.9
8.1
9.0
1.8
1.6
24.6
18.7
0.4
0.4
Hitachi
Neutral
1,045
-
2,842
1,779
2,081
7.8
8.8
21.8
33.4
47.9
31.3
7.7
6.3
17.4
22.1
1.7
1.4
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
275
-
4,978
1,620
1,847
11.5
11.5
7.3
8.5
37.7
32.4
4.9
4.5
13.3
14.4
2.9
2.4
MRF
Buy
33,410
45,575
14,170
20,316
14,488
21.4
21.1
5,488.0
3,798.0
6.1
8.8
2.1
1.7
41.1
21.2
0.6
0.9
Page Industries
Neutral
10,421
-
11,623
1,929
2,450
19.8
20.1
229.9
299.0
45.3
34.9
20.0
13.9
52.1
47.1
6.1
4.8
Relaxo Footwears
Neutral
395
-
4,742
1,767
2,152
12.3
12.5
19.3
25.1
20.5
15.8
5.0
3.9
27.7
27.8
2.8
2.2
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
1,005
1,354
942
1,636
1,815
11.5
11.5
89.9
104.1
11.2
9.7
1.9
1.6
17.9
17.8
0.7
0.6
Styrolution ABS India*
Neutral
519
-
913
1,271
1,440
8.6
9.2
32.0
41.1
16.2
12.7
1.7
1.5
10.7
12.4
0.7
0.6
Stock Watch
February 19, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
zOthers
TVS Srichakra
Buy
2,249
3,217
1,722
2,035
2,252
15.9
15.3
248.6
268.1
9.1
8.4
4.0
2.8
43.6
33.9
0.9
0.7
HSIL
Buy
230
302
1,665
2,123
2,384
16.1
16.5
15.0
18.9
15.3
12.2
1.2
1.1
8.0
9.4
1.1
1.0
Kirloskar Engines India
Neutral
210
-
3,033
2,403
2,554
8.6
9.9
9.2
10.5
22.8
20.0
2.2
2.1
9.7
10.7
0.9
0.8
Ltd
M M Forgings
Buy
395
614
476
511
615
21.7
21.6
43.1
55.8
9.2
7.1
1.7
1.4
19.9
21.2
1.1
0.8
Banco Products (India) Neutral
94
-
669
1,208
1,353
11.0
12.3
10.8
14.5
8.7
6.5
1.0
0.9
11.9
14.5
0.5
0.5
Competent Automobiles Neutral
133
-
82
1,040
1,137
3.2
3.1
25.7
28.0
5.2
4.8
0.8
0.7
15.0
14.3
0.1
0.1
Nilkamal
Neutral
1,014
-
1,514
1,871
2,031
10.7
10.5
63.2
69.8
16.1
14.5
2.6
2.2
17.6
16.6
0.9
0.8
Visaka Industries
Buy
93
144
147
1,086
1,197
9.9
10.3
21.5
28.8
4.3
3.2
0.4
0.4
9.6
11.6
0.4
0.3
Transport Corporation of
Neutral
222
-
1,687
2,830
3,350
8.8
9.0
14.4
18.3
15.4
12.1
2.4
2.1
15.4
17.1
0.7
0.6
India
Elecon Engineering
Neutral
50
-
548
1,359
1,482
10.3
13.7
0.8
3.9
62.6
12.9
1.0
1.0
1.6
7.8
0.8
0.7
Surya Roshni
Buy
136
201
597
2,992
3,223
8.1
8.4
14.7
18.3
9.3
7.4
0.9
0.8
9.7
11.0
0.5
0.4
MT Educare
Neutral
143
-
571
286
366
18.3
17.7
7.7
9.4
18.6
15.3
3.9
3.4
20.2
21.1
1.9
1.5
Radico Khaitan
Buy
98
156
1,310
1,517
1,635
12.7
13.4
5.8
7.1
16.9
13.8
1.5
1.3
8.6
9.6
1.3
1.2
Garware Wall Ropes
Buy
307
473
671
862
974
11.2
11.2
24.9
29.6
12.3
10.4
1.9
1.6
15.1
15.4
0.8
0.7
Wonderla Holidays
Neutral
361
-
2,038
206
308
44.0
43.6
9.0
12.9
40.1
28.0
5.5
5.0
13.7
17.8
9.4
6.3
Linc Pen & Plastics
Accumulate
174
185
257
340
371
8.3
8.9
10.8
13.2
16.1
13.2
2.6
2.2
16.0
17.1
0.8
0.7
The Byke Hospitality
Neutral
154
-
617
222
287
20.5
20.5
5.6
7.6
27.3
20.4
5.2
4.2
18.9
20.8
2.8
2.2
Interglobe Aviation
Neutral
849
-
30,600
17,022
21,122
20.7
14.5
63.9
53.7
13.3
15.8
19.9
16.3
149.9
103.2
1.8
1.4
Coffee Day Enterprises
Neutral
225
-
4,638
2,692
2,964
17.0
18.6
-
4.7
-
47.5
2.8
2.6
0.2
5.5
2.1
2.0
Ltd
Navneet Education
Neutral
85
-
2,024
998
1,062
24.1
24.0
5.8
6.1
14.8
14.0
3.3
2.9
22.0
20.6
2.1
2.0
Navkar Corporation
Buy
160
265
2,284
365
436
38.3
37.5
5.6
5.9
28.4
27.3
1.8
1.7
6.3
6.1
7.1
6.2
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on February 18, 2016
Market Outlook
February 19, 2016
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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