Market Outlook
March 18, 2016
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian market is expected to open flat with positive bias tracking the SGX Nifty.
BSE Sensex
(0.0)
(5)
24,677
Nifty
0.2
14
7,513
Dow Jones rose for the fifth consecutive session to move into a positive territory in
Mid Cap
0.5
53
10,233
2016 for the first time on Thursday, capping a strong comeback from Wall Street's
Small Cap
0.1
7
10,246
one of the worst start to a year. Energy, Materials and Industrial sectors rose sharply,
helped by soaring commodity prices. Crude crossed the $40 barrel market for the
Bankex
(0.1)
(11)
17,592
first time since Dec 3, 2015, aided by hopes of lower output and sharp drop in U.S.
Dollar. Also, latest economic news being on the bright side aided the positive market
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
movement. Weekly jobless claims rose by 7,000 to 265,000. Philadelphia activity for
Dow Jones
0.9
156
17,481
the first time unexpectedly turned positive in March, showing the first positive sign in
Nasdaq
0.2
11
4,775
last 7 months.
FTSE
0.4
26
6,201
European markets got off to positive start, but then quickly reversed, falling into a
Nikkei
(0.2)
(38)
16,936
negative territory. Early strength was attributed to rising commodity prices, which
Hang Seng
1.2
246
20,504
provided a boost to the Energy and Mining stocks. However, weakness in the
Banking stocks drove the markets into red. Bank of England kept the key rate steady
Shanghai Com
1.2
34
2,905
for 7 years running. U.K. equities ended higher on Thursday, aided by Fed-fueled
drop in the U.S. Dollar that boosted commodities stocks. In the mining sector, shares
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
of Anglo American and Glencore, both jumped by over 9%, as did Fresnillo.
Advances
1,341
668
Indian stock indices ended flat, with Sensex slightly in red and Nifty in green. Lupin
Declines
1,291
873
topped selling list on Sensex, falling 4% followed by HDFC, Sun Pharma, Dr Reddy's
Unchanged
176
92
Labs and Cipla with 0.4-1% downside.
News & Result Analysis
Volumes (` Cr)
KEC International has received orders worth `1,041cr
BSE
2,628
Detailed analysis on Pg2
NSE
17,543
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
FII
696
11,933
(21,452)
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
MFs
(275)
(3,364)
77,282
Refer Pg4 onwards
Top Picks
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
Aloktext
5
8.2
(`)
(`)
(%)
Amara Raja Batteries Auto & Auto Ancillary
Buy
902
1,040
15.3
Bpcl
863
5.7
HCL Tech
IT
Buy
815
1,038
27.4
Ambujacem
217
5.6
LIC Housing Finance Financials
Buy
451
592
31.3
Aiaeng
927
5.2
Bharat Electronics
Capital Goods
Buy
1,084
1,414
30.5
Mphasis
489
5.1
Navkar Corporation Others
Buy
169
265
56.8
More Top Picks on Pg3
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Hathway
37
(7.9)
Key Upcoming Events
Previous
Consensus
Den
91
(5.1)
Date
Region
Event Description
Reading
Expectations
Lupin
1,675
(4.2)
Mar 18 EUR
German PPI (MoM) (Feb)
-0.7%
-0.2%
Renuka
15
(4.0)
Mar 18 CAD
Core CPI (MoM) (Feb)
0.3%
0.5%
Rtnpower
12
(3.9)
Mar 18 USD
Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count
386
As on March 17, 2016
Mar 21 USD
Existing Home Sales (Feb)
5.47M
5.40M
6.(
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
March 18, 2016
KEC International has received orders worth `1,041cr
KEC International reported that it has won orders to the tune of `1,041cr. Majority
of this `1,041cr order win involves `933cr from the Transmission and Distribution
business, which is spread across India, Africa and America. The balance `108cr of
the order inflows were from the cable business. Notably, 58% (i.e. `604cr) of the
`1,041cr order inflows were from the International market.
Order intake of the company year-to-date (YTDFY2016) is `7,878cr, of which
~70% is from T&D space. Geography-wise order intake has is almost equal for
both, the International and Domestic markets. Order backlog outstanding stands
at `10,411cr, which gives revenue visibility for next 4 quarters.
In FY2015 KEC reported revenues of `8,468cr and PAT of `161cr. KEC derived
nearly
50% of the reported revenues from overseas market. KEC has
8
manufacturing units across India, Brazil and Mexico employing more than 5,200
employees. KEC also has a strong footprint across 61 countries with very strong
clientele relationships within the Middle East and African markets. The company
has strong market share in the India T&D market and had ~13% market share in
Power Grid Corporation Ltd’s order in FY2015. They have increased their market
share to ~22% (for ordering done till Nov-2015).
Over the years the company has developed strong Turnkey capability up to 1,200
KV transmission lines. KEC has also emerged as a leading turnkey provider of
telecom towers, optical fibre, cable laying and optical ground wiring stringing. The
company also has strong presence in Railways and is gradually building its
capabilities in the Water and the Solar space.
During 3QFY2016 the company’s revenue remained flat yoy , however there was
sharp improvement in their EBITDA margins to 7.8% vs 5.1% yoy. We expect the
company to post 10-12% growth in revenue over the next few years. At the CMP of
`118, KEC is trading at 21x and 14x its FY2016E and FY2017E EPS, respectively.
We have a NEUTRAL rating on the stock.
Economic and Political News
CoalMin to auction 16 mines for MSME use
'Aadhaar-linked LPG saved `14cr in FY2015'
Maharashtra to grow at 8% in FY16 despite 2.7% agri decline: Survey
Corporate News
Blue Star to phase out remote-controlled ACs by 2018
DLF sells Saket shopping mall to its own arm for `904cr
Heineken eyes control of Mallya's brewery
Blackstone nears deal to buy HP's stake in Mphasis for $940mn
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
March 18, 2016
Top Picks
Large Cap
M
arket Cap
CM
P
T
arget
Upsid
e
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
To outpace battery industry growth due to better technological
Amara Raja Batteries
15,408
902
1,040
15.3
products leading to market share gains in both the automotive
OEM and replacement segments.
Earnings to grow strongly given the MHCV cyclical upturn.
Ashok Leyland
27,079
95
111
16.7
Focus on exports and LCV's provides additional growth
avenue.
Uptick in defense capex by government when coupled with
Bharat Electronics
26,014
1,084
1,414
30.5
BELs strong market positioning, indicate that good times are
ahead for BEL.
The stock is trading at attractive valuations and is factoring all
HCL Tech
1,14,869
815
1,038
27.4
the bad news.
Strong visibility for a robust 20% earnings trajectory, coupled
HDFC Bank
2,57,272
1,018
1,262
24.0
with high quality of earnings on account of high quality retail
business and strategic focus on highly rated corporates.
Back on the growth trend, expect a long term growth of 14%
Infosys
2,67,362
1,160
1,347
16.1
to be a US$20bn in FY2020.
LICHF continues to grow its retail loan book at a healthy pace
with improvement in asset quality. We expect the company to
LIC Housing Finance
22,738
451
592
31.3
post a healthy loan book which is likely to reflect in a strong
earnings growth.
Huge bid pipeline of re-development works at Delhi and other
NBCC
11,347
946
1,089
15.2
State Governments and opportunity from Smart City, positions
NBCC to report strong growth, going forward.
New launches to enable outpace industry growth; margins
TVS Motors
13,445
283
330
16.6
expansion to boost earnings.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Mid Cap
M
arket Cap
CM
P
T
arget
Upsid
e
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favourable outlook for the AC industry to augur well for
Cooling products business which is out pacing the market
Blue Star
3,246
361
439
21.6
growth. EMPPAC division's profitability to improve once
operating environment turns around.
Commencement of new projects, downtrend in the interest rate
IL&FS Transport
2,316
70
93
32.1
cycle, to lead to stock re-rating
Economic recovery to have favourable impact on advertising &
circulation revenue growth. Further, the acquisition of a radio
Jagran Prakashan
4,843
148
189
27.6
business (Radio City) would also boost the company's revenue
growth.
Speedier execution and speedier sales, strong revenue visibilty
Mahindra Lifespace
1,760
429
554
29.1
in short-to-long run, attractive valuations
Massive capacity expansion along with rail advantage at ICD
Navkar Corporation
2,410
169
265
56.8
as well CFS augurs well for the company
Earnings boost on back of stable material prices and
Radico Khaitan
1,276
96
156
62.7
favourable pricing environment. Valuation discount to peers
provides additional comfort
Strong brands and distribution network would boost growth
Siyaram Silk Mills
899
960
1,354
41.1
going ahead. Stock currently trades at an inexpensive
valuation.
Source: Company, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
March 18, 2016
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
9.0
12.0
8.3
9.9
7.8
7.6
7.7
10.0
8.0
7.5
7.3
8.0
6.3
6.7
6.6
6.7
7.0
6.4
4.8
6.0
4.2
4.3
3.7
5.8
3.0
4.0
2.5
2.5
6.0
2.0
5.0
4.5
-
4.0
(2.0)
(1.3)
(4.0)
3.0
(3.4)
(6.0)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
56.0
5.6
5.7
6.0
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.3
4.9
5.0
5.0
54.0
5.0
4.4
3.7
3.7
52.0
4.0
50.0
3.0
48.0
2.0
1.0
46.0
-
44.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
0.0
8.00
7.50
(5.0)
7.00
(10.0)
6.50
6.00
(15.0)
5.50
(20.0)
5.00
(25.0)
4.50
4.00
(30.0)
3.50
(35.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
March 18, 2016
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
6.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
4.5
4.0
2.8
1.9
1.9
2.1
1.4
2.0
0.6
0.7
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(4.1)
(6.0)
(5.9)
(8.0)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2015 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
7.3
6.8
6.0
4.7
4.7
4.0
2.5
2.5
2.6
1.4
1.5
2.0
1.2
0.6
-
(2.0)
(3.0)
(4.0)
(3.8)
(6.0)
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
March 18, 2016
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
50,914
24.3
10.4
5.4
Russia
Micex
1,891
9.5
9.1
17.3
India
Nifty
7,513
4.9
(2.4)
(13.1)
China
Shanghai Composite
2,905
2.0
(14.9)
(11.1)
South Africa
Top 40
47,170
7.3
7.9
2.1
Mexico
Mexbol
45,435
5.4
5.9
3.0
Indonesia
LQ45
854
2.9
13.8
(9.6)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,703
2.3
2.6
(4.2)
Thailand
SET 50
886
9.1
6.3
(13.7)
USA
Dow Jones
17,481
7.9
0.7
(2.7)
UK
FTSE
6,201
5.8
3.0
(11.7)
Japan
Nikkei
16,936
5.5
(11.9)
(9.3)
Germany
DAX
9,892
8.3
(2.4)
(17.8)
France
CAC
4,443
8.1
(3.9)
(11.5)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
www.angelbroking.com
Stock Watch
March 18, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis
Neutral
168
-
3,265
2,097
2,415
14.4
14.4
9.5
11.0
17.7
15.3
3.5
3.0
21.1
21.3
1.6
1.4
United Phosphorus
Accumulate
436
480
18,696
12,500
14,375
18.3
18.3
29.8
35.9
14.6
12.2
2.7
2.3
20.0
20.3
1.6
1.3
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Ashok Leyland
Buy
95
111
27,079
17,995
21,544
11.4
11.6
3.4
4.7
28.0
20.2
4.9
4.5
17.7
22.2
1.5
1.2
Bajaj Auto
Accumulate
2,270
2,585
65,681
22,709
25,860
20.9
20.1
129.0
143.6
17.6
15.8
5.4
4.6
30.7
29.4
2.4
2.1
Bharat Forge
Accumulate
825
875
19,216
7,351
8,318
19.9
19.7
31.2
36.5
26.5
22.6
4.7
4.0
19.3
19.2
2.7
2.3
Eicher Motors
Accumulate
18,036
20,044
48,988
15,556
16,747
15.5
17.3
464.8
597.5
38.8
30.2
14.2
10.4
36.2
34.3
3.2
2.9
Gabriel India
Buy
84
101
1,208
1,415
1,544
8.7
9.0
4.6
5.4
18.3
15.6
3.3
2.9
18.1
18.9
0.8
0.7
Hero Motocorp
Neutral
2,820
-
56,302
28,244
30,532
15.5
15.9
156.7
168.5
18.0
16.7
7.2
6.1
39.9
36.4
1.8
1.6
Jamna Auto Industries Buy
130
160
1,042
1,281
1,473
11.2
11.5
7.6
9.2
17.2
14.2
4.3
3.6
25.4
25.2
0.9
0.7
L G Balakrishnan & Bros Neutral
425
-
667
1,254
1,394
11.6
11.8
35.9
41.7
11.9
10.2
1.6
1.4
13.5
13.8
0.6
0.6
Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate
1,198
1,364
74,429
38,416
42,904
13.7
13.9
54.8
63.4
21.9
18.9
3.4
3.0
15.4
15.8
1.6
1.4
Maruti
Neutral
3,633
-
109,749
57,865
68,104
16.4
16.7
176.3
225.5
20.6
16.1
4.0
3.4
19.4
21.2
1.7
1.4
Minda Industries
Accumulate
935
1,047
1,483
2,523
2,890
8.7
9.0
55.0
65.4
17.0
14.3
3.3
2.7
19.3
18.7
0.7
0.6
Motherson Sumi
Buy
246
313
32,506
39,343
45,100
8.8
9.1
10.1
12.5
24.3
19.7
7.7
6.0
35.3
34.4
0.9
0.8
Rane Brake Lining
Buy
367
465
290
454
511
11.5
12.0
25.2
31.0
14.6
11.8
2.2
2.0
14.9
16.6
0.8
0.7
Setco Automotive
Neutral
32
-
422
594
741
12.7
13.7
1.7
3.2
18.6
9.9
2.0
1.7
10.4
16.9
1.2
1.0
Tata Motors
Neutral
361
-
104,243
259,686
273,957
13.0
13.4
25.9
29.5
13.9
12.2
1.8
1.6
8.0
9.0
0.6
0.6
TVS Motor
Buy
283
330
13,445
11,263
13,122
6.9
8.5
9.2
15.0
30.8
18.9
7.0
5.6
22.7
29.6
1.2
1.0
Amara Raja Batteries
Buy
902
1,040
15,408
4,892
5,871
17.4
17.6
28.8
37.1
31.3
24.3
7.3
5.9
23.4
24.1
3.1
2.5
Exide Industries
Buy
135
162
11,471
6,950
7,784
14.4
14.8
6.6
7.3
20.5
18.5
2.6
2.4
12.6
12.8
1.4
1.2
Apollo Tyres
Accumulate
170
183
8,676
12,056
12,714
17.2
16.4
23.0
20.3
7.4
8.4
1.3
1.1
17.7
13.6
0.8
0.8
Ceat
Neutral
1,087
-
4,396
6,041
6,597
14.1
13.7
99.5
111.9
10.9
9.7
2.2
1.8
19.6
18.5
0.9
0.7
JK Tyres
Neutral
79
-
1,796
7,446
7,669
15.2
14.0
19.6
18.4
4.0
4.3
1.0
0.8
25.2
19.5
0.6
0.5
Swaraj Engines
Accumulate
840
919
1,043
552
630
14.2
14.7
44.6
54.1
18.8
15.5
4.4
4.0
23.2
25.6
1.8
1.5
Subros
Neutral
84
-
502
1,293
1,527
11.8
11.9
4.2
6.7
19.9
12.5
1.5
1.4
7.7
11.5
0.7
0.6
Indag Rubber
Neutral
164
-
431
283
329
17.0
17.2
13.0
15.4
12.7
10.7
2.8
2.3
21.8
21.6
1.3
1.0
Capital Goods
ACE
Neutral
36
-
359
660
839
4.7
8.2
1.0
3.9
36.3
9.3
1.1
1.0
3.2
11.3
0.7
0.6
BEML
Accumulate
1,025
1,157
4,267
3,277
4,006
6.0
8.9
36.2
64.3
28.3
15.9
2.0
1.8
5.7
11.7
1.4
1.1
Bharat Electronics
Buy
1,084
1,414
26,014
7,737
8,634
16.8
17.2
54.0
61.5
20.1
17.6
2.9
2.5
39.3
45.6
2.4
2.0
www.angelbroking.com
Stock Watch
March 18, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Capital Goods
Voltas
Buy
252
353
8,322
5,363
5,963
8.0
9.1
11.0
13.8
22.9
18.2
3.5
3.1
16.2
17.9
1.5
1.3
BGR Energy
Neutral
103
-
741
3,615
3,181
9.5
9.4
16.7
12.4
6.2
8.3
0.6
0.6
10.0
7.0
0.6
0.8
BHEL
Neutral
111
-
27,132
33,722
35,272
10.8
11.7
10.5
14.2
10.6
7.8
0.8
0.7
7.0
9.0
0.9
0.8
Blue Star
Buy
361
439
3,246
3,548
3,977
6.3
6.9
13.7
17.2
26.4
21.0
6.6
4.3
26.1
25.4
1.0
0.8
Crompton Greaves
Neutral
47
-
2,933
13,484
14,687
4.9
6.2
4.5
7.1
10.4
6.6
0.7
0.7
7.2
10.8
0.3
0.3
Greaves Cotton
Neutral
123
-
2,996
1,655
1,755
16.6
16.8
7.4
7.8
16.6
15.7
3.3
3.2
21.1
20.6
1.8
1.7
Inox Wind
Buy
266
458
5,892
4,980
5,943
17.0
17.5
26.6
31.6
10.0
8.4
3.0
2.2
35.0
30.0
1.3
1.1
KEC International
Neutral
119
-
3,048
8,791
9,716
6.1
6.8
5.4
8.2
22.0
14.5
2.2
2.0
10.0
14.0
0.6
0.5
Thermax
Neutral
772
-
9,198
6,413
7,525
7.4
8.5
30.5
39.3
25.3
19.6
3.9
3.4
15.0
17.0
1.4
1.1
VATech Wabag
Neutral
514
-
2,802
2,722
3,336
7.9
8.1
19.5
24.6
26.4
20.9
2.8
2.5
11.1
12.4
1.1
0.9
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,274
-
23,913
13,151
14,757
16.4
18.3
63.9
83.4
19.9
15.3
2.6
2.4
13.3
16.1
1.6
1.4
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
218
-
33,847
11,564
12,556
19.4
20.7
8.9
10.1
24.5
21.6
3.1
2.9
12.8
13.8
2.4
2.2
HeidelbergCement
Neutral
75
-
1,708
1,772
1,926
13.3
15.4
1.0
3.0
75.4
25.1
1.9
1.8
2.6
7.9
1.5
1.3
India Cements
Neutral
79
-
2,434
4,216
4,840
18.0
19.5
4.0
9.9
19.8
8.0
0.8
0.7
4.0
9.5
0.9
0.7
JK Cement
Neutral
599
-
4,191
3,661
4,742
10.1
15.8
7.5
28.5
79.9
21.0
2.4
2.1
7.5
22.9
1.6
1.2
J K Lakshmi Cement
Neutral
311
-
3,664
2,947
3,616
16.7
19.9
11.5
27.2
27.1
11.5
2.6
2.2
9.8
20.8
1.6
1.3
Mangalam Cements
Neutral
195
-
522
1,053
1,347
10.5
13.3
8.4
26.0
23.3
7.5
1.0
0.9
4.3
12.5
0.9
0.6
Orient Cement
Neutral
143
-
2,933
1,854
2,524
21.2
22.2
7.7
11.1
18.6
12.9
2.7
2.3
13.3
15.7
2.3
1.6
Ramco Cements
Neutral
401
-
9,539
4,036
4,545
20.8
21.3
15.1
18.8
26.5
21.3
3.2
2.9
12.9
14.3
2.8
2.4
Shree Cement^
Neutral
11,636
-
40,536
7,150
8,742
26.7
28.6
228.0
345.5
51.0
33.7
7.5
6.3
15.7
20.3
5.3
4.3
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
3,027
-
83,066
24,669
29,265
18.2
20.6
82.0
120.0
36.9
25.2
4.0
3.5
11.3
14.7
3.4
2.9
Construction
ITNL
Buy
70
93
2,316
7,360
8,825
34.0
35.9
7.0
9.0
10.1
7.8
0.3
0.3
3.2
3.7
3.7
3.6
KNR Constructions
Buy
499
603
1,402
937
1,470
14.3
14.0
44.2
38.6
11.3
12.9
2.3
2.0
15.4
15.4
1.6
1.0
Larsen & Toubro
Accumulate
1,194
1,310
111,200
58,870
65,708
8.3
10.3
42.0
53.0
28.4
22.5
2.0
1.8
8.8
11.2
2.1
1.9
Gujarat Pipavav Port
Neutral
163
-
7,890
629
684
51.0
52.2
6.4
5.9
25.5
27.7
3.4
3.1
15.9
12.7
11.9
10.7
MBL Infrastructures
Buy
137
285
570
2,313
2,797
12.2
14.6
19.0
20.0
7.2
6.9
0.8
0.7
11.3
10.6
0.9
0.8
Nagarjuna Const.
Neutral
73
-
4,064
7,892
8,842
8.8
9.1
3.0
5.3
24.4
13.8
1.2
1.1
5.0
8.5
0.7
0.6
PNC Infratech
Accumulate
490
558
2,514
1,873
2,288
13.2
13.5
24.0
32.0
20.4
15.3
2.0
1.8
12.1
12.3
1.4
1.2
Simplex Infra
Neutral
219
-
1,082
5,955
6,829
10.3
10.5
16.0
31.0
13.7
7.1
0.7
0.7
5.3
9.9
0.7
0.6
www.angelbroking.com
Stock Watch
March 18, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Construction
Power Mech Projects
Neutral
560
-
824
1,539
1,801
12.8
12.7
59.0
72.1
9.5
7.8
1.4
1.2
18.6
16.8
0.5
0.5
Sadbhav Engineering
Accumulate
261
289
4,472
3,481
4,219
10.7
10.8
8.2
11.7
31.8
22.3
3.0
2.7
10.3
13.5
1.6
1.3
NBCC
Accumulate
946
1,089
11,347
5,816
7,382
6.9
7.7
29.6
39.8
31.9
23.8
5.7
4.5
24.1
26.7
1.7
1.3
MEP Infra
Neutral
38
-
619
1,956
1,876
28.1
30.5
1.3
3.0
29.3
12.7
6.2
4.1
21.2
32.8
1.7
1.7
SIPL
Neutral
86
-
3,012
675
1,042
62.4
64.7
-
-
3.2
3.7
-
-
16.2
10.9
Engineers India
Neutral
161
-
5,411
1,667
1,725
13.5
16.0
9.7
11.4
16.6
14.1
1.9
1.9
11.7
13.4
2.0
2.1
Financials
Allahabad Bank
Neutral
52
-
3,126
8,569
9,392
2.8
2.9
16.3
27.5
3.2
1.9
0.3
0.2
7.6
11.9
-
-
Axis Bank
Buy
428
494
101,925
26,473
31,527
3.5
3.6
35.7
43.5
12.0
9.8
2.0
1.7
17.9
18.9
-
-
Bank of Baroda
Neutral
142
-
32,742
18,485
21,025
1.9
2.0
13.5
21.1
10.6
6.7
0.8
0.7
7.3
10.6
-
-
Bank of India
Neutral
95
-
7,697
15,972
17,271
1.9
2.0
15.3
33.4
6.2
2.8
0.3
0.2
3.6
7.6
-
-
Canara Bank
Neutral
187
-
10,151
15,441
16,945
2.0
2.1
46.6
70.4
4.0
2.7
0.4
0.3
8.0
11.2
-
-
Dena Bank
Neutral
29
-
1,839
3,440
3,840
2.1
2.3
7.3
10.0
3.9
2.8
0.3
0.2
6.1
7.9
-
-
Federal Bank
Neutral
50
-
8,572
3,477
3,999
3.0
3.0
5.0
6.2
10.0
8.0
1.0
0.9
10.6
11.9
-
-
HDFC
Neutral
1,110
-
175,258
10,358
11,852
3.3
3.3
41.1
47.0
27.0
23.6
5.1
4.7
24.7
24.9
-
-
HDFC Bank
Buy
1,018
1,262
257,272
38,309
47,302
4.3
4.3
49.3
61.1
20.6
16.7
3.6
3.1
18.5
19.7
-
-
ICICI Bank
Accumulate
228
254
132,291
34,279
39,262
3.3
3.3
21.0
24.4
10.8
9.3
1.8
1.5
14.4
14.7
-
-
IDBI Bank
Neutral
67
-
12,664
9,625
10,455
1.8
1.8
8.5
14.2
7.8
4.7
0.5
0.4
5.9
9.3
-
-
Indian Bank
Neutral
102
-
4,880
6,160
6,858
2.5
2.5
24.5
29.8
4.2
3.4
0.3
0.3
7.7
8.6
-
-
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
451
592
22,738
3,101
3,745
2.5
2.5
33.0
40.2
13.7
11.2
2.6
2.2
19.7
20.5
-
-
Oriental Bank
Neutral
89
-
2,660
7,643
8,373
2.4
2.4
37.2
45.4
2.4
2.0
0.2
0.2
8.2
9.4
-
-
Punjab Natl.Bank
Neutral
83
-
16,259
23,638
26,557
2.8
2.8
17.9
27.2
4.6
3.0
0.5
0.4
8.5
12.0
-
-
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
17
-
2,350
1,965
2,185
2.5
2.5
2.5
3.3
7.0
5.3
0.7
0.6
9.5
11.7
-
-
St Bk of India
Neutral
186
-
144,504
79,958
86,061
2.6
2.6
13.4
20.7
13.9
9.0
1.1
1.1
11.5
12.8
-
-
Union Bank
Neutral
126
-
8,686
12,646
14,129
2.3
2.4
31.0
39.1
4.1
3.2
0.4
0.4
9.8
11.4
-
-
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
31
-
2,676
3,536
3,827
1.9
1.9
5.5
6.7
5.6
4.7
0.5
0.4
7.8
8.8
-
-
Yes Bank
Neutral
799
-
33,598
7,190
9,011
3.2
3.3
58.2
69.7
13.7
11.5
2.5
2.1
19.2
19.6
-
-
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
871
-
83,522
16,553
19,160
16.0
16.2
17.7
21.5
49.3
40.5
13.1
11.8
29.4
31.2
4.9
4.2
Britannia
Neutral
2,693
-
32,305
8,481
9,795
14.0
14.1
65.5
78.3
41.1
34.4
19.5
16.0
38.3
41.2
3.7
3.2
Colgate
Neutral
836
-
22,731
4,836
5,490
19.5
19.7
48.5
53.2
17.2
15.7
12.6
11.0
99.8
97.5
4.6
4.0
www.angelbroking.com
Stock Watch
March 18, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FMCG
Dabur India
Accumulate
248
267
43,548
9,370
10,265
17.1
17.2
7.3
8.1
33.8
30.6
10.2
8.3
33.7
30.6
4.5
4.1
GlaxoSmith Con*
Accumulate
5,898
6,118
24,804
4,919
5,742
17.2
17.4
168.3
191.2
35.1
30.9
9.9
8.5
28.8
28.9
4.5
3.8
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
1,290
-
43,944
10,168
12,886
16.1
16.1
32.1
38.4
40.2
33.6
8.2
7.6
19.7
21.0
4.4
3.5
HUL
Neutral
849
-
183,778
34,940
38,957
17.5
17.7
20.8
24.7
40.8
34.4
45.4
36.3
110.5
114.2
5.0
4.5
ITC
Accumulate
324
359
260,440
36,804
38,776
37.9
37.9
12.2
12.9
26.6
25.1
7.4
6.5
27.7
25.8
6.6
6.3
Marico
Neutral
245
-
31,635
6,551
7,766
15.7
16.0
10.4
12.5
23.6
19.6
6.9
5.7
33.2
32.4
4.7
3.9
Nestle*
Buy
5,089
6,646
49,067
11,291
12,847
22.2
22.3
158.9
184.6
32.0
27.6
16.7
15.1
55.0
57.3
4.1
3.6
Tata Global
Buy
116
144
7,308
8,635
9,072
9.8
9.9
6.5
7.6
17.8
15.2
1.8
1.7
6.8
7.4
0.8
0.7
IT
HCL Tech^
Buy
815
1,038
114,869
42,038
47,503
21.2
21.5
51.5
57.7
15.8
14.1
3.4
2.6
21.5
18.8
2.3
1.9
Infosys
Buy
1,160
1,347
267,362
61,850
69,981
27.5
27.5
59.4
65.7
19.5
17.7
4.1
3.6
21.2
20.1
3.6
3.0
TCS
Buy
2,352
2,854
463,395
108,487
122,590
28.3
28.5
122.8
138.4
19.2
17.0
7.3
6.6
38.0
38.9
3.8
3.3
Tech Mahindra
Accumulate
486
530
47,049
26,524
29,177
16.2
17.0
28.8
33.6
16.9
14.5
3.3
2.8
19.3
19.1
1.5
1.3
Wipro
Buy
538
680
132,981
50,808
56,189
23.7
23.8
37.3
40.7
14.4
13.2
2.8
2.5
19.2
17.7
2.1
1.7
Media
D B Corp
Accumulate
318
356
5,838
2,241
2,495
27.8
27.9
21.8
25.6
14.6
12.4
3.8
3.4
26.7
28.5
2.5
2.2
HT Media
Neutral
79
-
1,848
2,495
2,603
11.2
11.2
7.3
8.6
10.9
9.2
0.9
0.8
7.4
8.1
0.2
0.2
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
148
189
4,843
2,170
2,355
27.2
26.2
8.9
9.9
16.7
15.0
3.5
3.1
20.9
20.5
2.1
1.9
Sun TV Network
Neutral
365
-
14,384
2,779
3,196
70.2
70.5
22.8
27.3
16.0
13.4
4.0
3.6
26.7
28.3
4.9
4.2
Hindustan Media
Neutral
246
-
1,808
920
1,031
20.0
20.0
19.2
20.9
12.8
11.8
2.1
1.8
16.4
15.3
1.6
1.4
Ventures
Metals & Mining
Coal India
Buy
294
380
185,922
76,167
84,130
19.9
22.3
22.4
25.8
13.1
11.4
4.7
4.6
35.5
41.0
1.8
1.6
Hind. Zinc
Neutral
169
-
71,387
14,641
14,026
50.4
50.4
17.7
16.0
9.6
10.6
1.5
1.3
16.2
13.2
2.5
2.4
Hindalco
Neutral
81
-
16,726
104,356
111,186
8.7
9.5
6.7
11.1
12.1
7.3
0.4
0.4
3.5
5.9
0.7
0.6
JSW Steel
Neutral
1,202
-
29,062
42,308
45,147
16.4
20.7
(10.3)
49.5
24.3
1.3
1.3
(1.0)
5.6
1.7
1.6
NMDC
Neutral
96
-
38,041
8,237
10,893
46.6
44.5
10.0
11.7
9.7
8.2
1.1
0.9
12.5
13.0
4.3
3.3
SAIL
Neutral
43
-
17,677
45,915
53,954
7.2
10.5
1.5
4.4
28.4
9.8
0.4
0.4
2.3
4.1
1.0
0.9
Vedanta
Neutral
86
-
25,570
71,445
81,910
26.2
26.3
12.9
19.2
6.7
4.5
0.5
0.4
7.2
8.9
0.8
0.6
Tata Steel
Neutral
296
-
28,729
126,760
137,307
8.9
11.3
6.4
23.1
46.5
12.8
0.9
0.9
2.0
7.1
0.8
0.8
Oil & Gas
Cairn India
Neutral
152
-
28,582
11,323
12,490
49.4
51.0
20.7
20.7
7.4
7.4
0.5
0.5
6.4
6.1
1.5
0.9
GAIL
Neutral
353
-
44,790
64,856
70,933
9.1
9.6
24.0
28.9
14.7
12.2
1.3
1.2
8.8
9.6
0.9
0.8
ONGC
Neutral
213
-
181,847
154,564
167,321
36.8
37.4
28.6
32.5
7.4
6.5
0.9
0.9
12.7
13.5
1.3
1.3
www.angelbroking.com
Stock Watch
March 18, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Oil & Gas
Petronet LNG
Neutral
247
-
18,540
29,691
31,188
5.8
6.2
12.8
13.4
19.3
18.4
2.9
2.6
15.8
14.8
0.7
0.7
Indian Oil Corp
Buy
399
455
96,766
359,607
402,760
5.9
6.1
42.5
48.7
9.4
8.2
1.3
1.1
14.1
14.4
0.4
0.3
Reliance Industries
Accumulate
1,016
1,150
329,050
304,775
344,392
12.6
13.4
91.3
102.6
11.1
9.9
1.3
1.1
11.8
12.0
1.0
0.8
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
610
-
11,506
3,274
3,802
26.9
19.4
35.0
28.7
17.4
21.3
7.7
5.8
55.6
31.2
3.6
3.0
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
726
856
42,492
14,923
17,162
22.0
23.0
35.7
42.8
20.3
17.0
6.0
4.5
34.0
30.2
3.2
2.7
Aventis*
Neutral
4,166
-
9,594
2,082
2,371
17.4
20.8
118.2
151.5
35.2
27.5
5.2
4.2
19.9
25.5
4.4
3.7
Cadila Healthcare
Neutral
337
-
34,480
10,224
11,840
21.0
22.0
14.6
17.6
23.1
19.1
6.3
5.0
30.8
29.0
3.5
2.9
Cipla
Accumulate
524
605
42,133
13,979
16,447
20.2
18.6
25.7
27.5
20.4
19.1
3.3
2.9
17.6
16.1
3.1
2.5
Dr Reddy's
Buy
3,122
3,933
53,235
16,838
19,575
25.0
23.1
167.5
178.8
18.6
17.5
3.9
3.3
23.1
20.4
3.1
2.6
Dishman Pharma
Neutral
345
-
2,784
1,733
1,906
21.5
21.5
17.0
19.9
20.3
17.3
2.0
1.8
10.5
11.2
2.1
1.8
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
3,350
-
28,379
2,870
3,158
20.0
22.1
59.5
68.3
56.3
49.1
16.6
17.1
28.5
34.3
9.3
8.5
Indoco Remedies
Neutral
277
-
2,551
1,033
1,199
15.9
18.2
9.4
13.6
29.5
20.4
4.4
3.7
15.7
19.7
2.5
2.2
Ipca labs
Buy
532
900
6,709
3,363
3,909
12.9
18.6
13.4
28.0
39.7
19.0
2.8
2.5
7.4
14.0
2.3
2.0
Lupin
Neutral
1,675
-
75,446
13,092
16,561
25.0
27.0
50.4
68.3
33.2
24.5
6.9
5.4
22.8
24.7
5.7
4.4
Sun Pharma
Accumulate
828
950
199,320
28,163
32,610
25.8
30.7
17.4
26.9
47.6
30.8
4.5
3.9
13.0
16.6
6.6
5.5
Power
Tata Power
Neutral
58
-
15,809
35,923
37,402
22.6
22.8
4.1
5.2
14.4
11.4
1.1
1.0
7.5
9.3
1.4
1.3
NTPC
Accumulate
127
146
104,552
87,271
99,297
23.5
23.5
11.8
13.3
10.8
9.5
1.2
1.1
11.5
12.2
2.2
2.0
Power Grid
Buy
138
170
72,248
20,702
23,361
86.7
86.4
12.1
13.2
11.4
10.5
1.7
1.5
15.6
15.1
8.4
7.8
Real Estate
MLIFE
Buy
429
554
1,760
697
1,011
14.9
19.3
13.8
20.1
31.1
21.3
1.2
1.1
3.8
5.3
3.8
2.6
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
342
-
136,531
101,748
109,191
32.1
31.7
12.0
12.5
28.5
27.3
2.0
1.8
6.9
6.7
2.0
1.8
Idea Cellular
Neutral
100
-
36,131
34,282
36,941
32.0
31.5
5.9
6.2
17.0
16.2
1.6
1.4
9.9
9.3
1.6
1.5
zOthers
Abbott India
Neutral
4,726
-
10,042
2,715
3,153
14.5
14.1
134.3
152.2
35.2
31.0
8.8
7.2
27.4
25.6
3.5
2.9
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
187
237
1,889
4,719
5,287
5.2
5.8
8.6
12.7
21.9
14.8
2.5
2.2
11.4
14.8
0.4
0.4
Finolex Cables
Neutral
244
-
3,724
2,520
2,883
12.2
12.0
12.7
14.2
19.2
17.2
2.6
2.3
13.6
13.5
1.2
1.0
Goodyear India*
Buy
477
582
1,100
1,800
1,600
11.7
11.5
58.7
52.9
8.1
9.0
1.8
1.6
24.6
18.7
0.4
0.4
Hitachi
Neutral
1,159
-
3,150
1,779
2,081
7.8
8.8
21.8
33.4
53.1
34.7
8.6
6.9
17.4
22.1
1.8
1.5
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
283
-
5,130
1,620
1,847
11.5
11.5
7.3
8.5
38.9
33.4
5.0
4.7
13.3
14.4
3.1
2.6
MRF
Buy
33,839
45,575
14,352
20,316
14,488
21.4
21.1
5,488.0
3,798.0
6.2
8.9
2.1
1.7
41.1
21.2
0.6
0.9
Page Industries
Neutral
11,405
-
12,721
1,929
2,450
19.8
20.1
229.9
299.0
49.6
38.2
21.9
15.2
52.1
47.1
6.5
5.1
www.angelbroking.com
Stock Watch
March 18, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
zOthers
Relaxo Footwears
Neutral
372
-
4,465
1,767
2,152
12.3
12.5
19.3
25.1
19.3
14.8
4.7
3.6
27.7
27.8
2.6
2.1
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
960
1,354
899
1,636
1,815
11.5
11.5
89.9
104.1
10.7
9.2
1.8
1.5
17.9
17.8
0.7
0.6
Styrolution ABS India* Neutral
559
-
982
1,271
1,440
8.6
9.2
32.0
41.1
17.4
13.6
1.8
1.6
10.7
12.4
0.7
0.6
TVS Srichakra
Buy
2,354
3,217
1,803
2,035
2,252
15.9
15.3
248.6
268.1
9.5
8.8
4.1
3.0
43.6
33.9
1.0
0.8
HSIL
Accumulate
281
302
2,030
2,123
2,384
16.1
16.5
15.0
18.9
18.7
14.9
1.5
1.4
8.0
9.4
1.3
1.1
Kirloskar Engines India
Neutral
210
-
3,030
2,403
2,554
8.6
9.9
9.2
10.5
22.8
20.0
2.2
2.1
9.7
10.7
0.9
0.8
Ltd
M M Forgings
Buy
426
614
514
511
615
21.7
21.6
43.1
55.8
9.9
7.6
1.8
1.5
19.9
21.2
1.2
0.9
Banco Products (India) Neutral
103
-
735
1,208
1,353
11.0
12.3
10.8
14.5
9.5
7.1
1.1
1.0
11.9
14.5
0.5
0.5
Competent Automobiles Neutral
129
-
79
1,040
1,137
3.2
3.1
25.7
28.0
5.0
4.6
0.8
0.7
15.0
14.3
0.1
0.1
Nilkamal
Neutral
1,103
-
1,646
1,871
2,031
10.7
10.5
63.2
69.8
17.5
15.8
2.8
2.4
17.6
16.6
0.9
0.8
Visaka Industries
Buy
104
144
165
1,086
1,197
9.9
10.3
21.5
28.8
4.8
3.6
0.5
0.4
9.6
11.6
0.4
0.3
Transport Corporation of
Neutral
276
-
2,097
2,830
3,350
8.8
9.0
14.4
18.3
19.2
15.1
3.0
2.6
15.4
17.1
0.9
0.7
India
Elecon Engineering
Neutral
56
-
613
1,359
1,482
10.3
13.7
0.8
3.9
70.1
14.5
1.2
1.1
1.6
7.8
0.8
0.7
Surya Roshni
Buy
132
201
580
2,992
3,223
8.1
8.4
14.7
18.3
9.0
7.2
0.8
0.8
9.7
11.0
0.5
0.4
MT Educare
Neutral
160
-
639
286
366
18.3
17.7
7.7
9.4
20.8
17.1
4.4
3.8
20.2
21.1
2.1
1.6
Radico Khaitan
Buy
96
156
1,276
1,517
1,635
12.7
13.4
5.8
7.1
16.5
13.5
1.4
1.3
8.6
9.6
1.3
1.2
Garware Wall Ropes
Buy
325
473
711
862
974
11.2
11.2
24.9
29.6
13.1
11.0
2.0
1.7
15.1
15.4
0.8
0.7
Wonderla Holidays
Neutral
361
-
2,039
206
308
44.0
43.6
9.0
12.9
40.1
28.0
5.5
5.0
13.7
17.8
9.8
6.5
Linc Pen & Plastics
Neutral
181
-
268
340
371
8.3
8.9
10.8
13.2
16.8
13.7
2.7
2.3
16.0
17.1
0.8
0.8
The Byke Hospitality
Neutral
153
-
613
222
287
20.5
20.5
5.6
7.6
27.1
20.2
5.1
4.2
18.9
20.8
2.8
2.1
Interglobe Aviation
Neutral
807
-
29,077
17,022
21,122
20.7
14.5
63.9
53.7
12.6
15.0
18.9
15.5
149.9
103.2
1.7
1.4
Coffee Day Enterprises
Neutral
228
-
4,703
2,692
2,964
17.0
18.6
-
4.7
-
48.2
2.8
2.6
0.2
5.5
2.1
2.0
Ltd
Navneet Education
Neutral
82
-
1,951
998
1,062
24.1
24.0
5.8
6.1
14.2
13.5
3.1
2.8
22.0
20.6
2.0
1.9
Navkar Corporation
Buy
169
265
2,410
365
436
38.3
37.5
5.6
5.9
30.0
28.8
1.9
1.8
6.3
6.1
7.4
6.3
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on March 17, 2016
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
March 18, 2016
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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