Market Outlook
December 17, 2015
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are expected to open positively tracking the SGX Nifty and its Asian
BSE Sensex
0.7
174
25,494
peers.
Nifty
0.6
50
7,751
U.S. markets rallied for the third consecutive session after the Federal Reserve raised
Mid Cap
0.3
37
10,743
its key interest rates and emphasized a gradual path for future rate hikes. The move
Small Cap
0.2
28
11,363
was highly anticipated and was read as a vote of confidence in the economy.
Bankex
1.2
217
18,907
European shares closed higher holding onto the gains, before the US Federal
Reserve’s expected decision to hike interest rates which signals strength of its
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
economy.
Dow Jones
1.3
224
17,749
Indian shares continued their gaining streak for the third consecutive day. Positive
Nasdaq
1.5
74
5,071
cues from the Asian markets helped the domestic indices to close in the green.
FTSE
0.7
43
6,061
News & Result Analysis
Nikkei
2.6
484
19,050
US Federal Reserve expectedly raises interest rates by 0.25%
Hang Seng
2.0
427
21,701
SC bans sale on diesel vehicles above 2,000 cc in NCR till March 31,2016
Shanghai Com
0.2
6
3,516
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Advances
1,444
968
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Declines
1,278
545
Refer P4 onwards
Unchanged
206
76
Top Picks
CMP
Target
Upside
Volumes (` Cr)
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
BSE
2,578
Axis Bank
Financials
Buy
437
630
44.0
NSE
15,032
HCL Tech
IT
Buy
848
1,132
33.5
ICICI Bank
Financials
Buy
252
354
40.5
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Ashok Leyland
Automobiles
Buy
88
111
26.2
Larsen & Toubro
Construction
Buy
1,281
1,646
28.5
FII
(64)
(3,328)
112,172
More Top Picks on Pg3
MFs
71
1,486
89,879
Key Upcoming Events
Previous
Consensus
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Date
Region
Event Description
Reading
Expectations
Pipavavdoc
77
16.7
Dec 17
US
Initial jobless claims
282K
275K
Pmcfin
1
8.7
Dec 22
US
Existing home sales
5.36Mn
5.36Mn
Igl
500
6.8
Dec 22
US
3QGDP
2.1%
1.9%
Rallis
175
6.1
Bhusanstl
45
5.9
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
M&M
1,219
(5.4)
Kailash
2
(4.5)
Cesc
502
(3.0)
Iifl
205
(2.9)
Sadbhav
324
(2.8)
As on December 16, 2015
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Market Outlook
December 17, 2015
US Fed expectedly raises interest rates by 0.25%
The US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by 0.25%, its first increase since
2006. The move takes the range of rates banks offer to lend to each other
overnight - the Federal Funds rate - to between 0.25% and 0.5%.The US rate rise
vote was unanimous. The US central bank also raised its projection for its
economic growth next year slightly, from 2.3% to 2.4%. That suggests the bank
does not think the rate increase will damage growth. The US central bank cited as
the reasons for its action increased household spending and investment by
business, along with a continued low rate of inflation. In its statement, the
committee said: "The committee judges that there has been considerable
improvements in labor market conditions this year, and it is reasonably confident
that inflation will rise, over the medium term, to its 2% objective."
The Fed has said it will continue to monitor inflation and employment to determine
if and when further rise are justified. The chairman of the Federal Reserve, Janet
Yellen, said the committee was confident the economy would "continue to
strengthen" but it still has "room for improvement".
Future action will depend on how the economy moves forward and will be
gradual. Ms Yellen acknowledged weakness remained in the labour market,
particularly wage growth. She warned that if the Fed had continued to delay a rate
rise, it could have been forced to tighten monetary policy too quickly, something
that could have led to another recession. The Fed's medium-term projection for the
Federal Funds rate is 1.5% in 2016 and 2.5% in 2017.
US Fed’s move was highly anticipated and factored in the market expectations.
Further, the Federal Reserve has hinted for a gradual rate hikes going into future,
thus avoiding any knee jerk reaction.
SC bans sales of diesel vehicles above 2,000 engine capacity in
NCR till March 31, 2016
Supreme Court has banned sale of new diesel vehicles above 2,000 cc in National
capital region (areas in and around Delhi) till March 31, 2016. We believe the
news is likely to have negative impact on M&M as about 4% of its passenger
vehicle volumes and 2% of the overall volumes are sold in the NCR region which is
above the 2,000 cc range. The news would not have much impact on Maruti
Suzuki (it hardly has any product above the 2,000 cc segment) and Tata Motors
(Tata Motors earnings are driven largely by JLR which is a global player). We think
the auto industry is likely to have negotiations/dialogue with the Government and
provide a permanent solution which could be banning of the older vehicles (which
have more population and are relatively more polluting) or further improving the
emission for new vehicles which could then possibly result into the ban not
extending beyond March 31,2016. Further, M&M has stated it can redesign the
existing product range with a sub 2 litre engine to comply with the SC stipulation
and avoid loss of car sales in NCR region. As of now, we are not making any
changes to our stock recommendations.
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
December 17, 2015
Economic and Political News
States receive `1,396 crore from coal mines auction, allotment: Source
Open to scrapping 1% additional tax for GST Bill passage: Jaitley
Will achieve fiscal deficit without cuts: Arun Jaitley
Corporate News
RIL-ONGC gas row: Govt sets up A P Shah Judicial commission to probe
dispute
SC for testing of Maggi at Mysore; stays proceedings in NCDRC
India's GVK likely to shelve $500 million airports unit IPO if stake sale goes
through
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
December 17, 2015
Top Picks ★★★★★
Large Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
To outpace battery industry growth due to better technological
Amara Raja Batteries
14,543
851
1,040
22.2
products leading to market share gains in both the automotive
OEM and replacement segments.
Earnings to grow strongly given the MHCV cyclical upturn.
Ashok Leyland
25,029
88
111
26.2
Focus on exports and LCV's provides additional growth
avenue.
Healthy pace of branch expansion, backed by distribution
Axis Bank
104,013
437
630
44.0
network, will be the driving force for the bank’s retail business
and overall earnings.
The stock is trading at attractive valuations and is factoring all
HCL Tech
119,466
848
1,132
33.5
the bad news.
Strong visibility for a robust 20% earnings trajectory, coupled
HDFC Bank
269,203
1,067
1,262
18.3
with high quality of earnings on account of high quality retail
business and strategic focus on highly rated corporates.
Due to its robust franchise and capital adequacy position, the
bank is well positioned to grow by at least a few percentage
ICICI Bank
146,461
252
354
40.5
points higher than the average industry growth rate from a
structural point of view.
Back on the growth trend, expect a long term growth of 14%
Infosys
251,607
1,095
1,306
19.2
to be a US$20bn in FY2020.
Well positioned to benefit from such expected gradual
recovery in the overall domestic capex cycle, given its presence
Larsen & Toubro
119,307
1,281
1,646
28.5
across various infrastructure segments, its execution
capabilities, and its strong balance sheet.
LICHF continues to grow its retail loan book at a healthy pace
with improvement in asset quality. We expect the company to
LIC Housing Finance
24,093
477
571
19.6
post a healthy loan book which is likely to reflect in a strong
earnings growth.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Mid Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favourable outlook for the AC industry to augur well for
Cooling products business which is out pacing the market
Blue Star
3,356
373
429
15.0
growth. EMPPAC division's profitability to improve once
operating environment turns around.
Change in business focus towards high-margin chronic &
Ipca labs
9,447
749
900
20.2
lifestyle segments and increasing penetration in Europe and
US
Economic recovery to have favourable impact on advertising &
circulation revenue growth. Further, the acquisition of a radio
Jagran Prakashan
5,030
154
169
9.8
business (Radio City) would also boost the company's revenue
growth.
Strong brand & quality teaching with innovative technologies &
MT Educare
550
138
169
22.3
higher government educational spending to boost growth
Earnings boost on back of stable material prices and
Radico Khaitan
1,469
110
156
41.2
favourable pricing environment. Valuation discount to peers
provides additional comfort
Strong brands and distribution network would boost growth
Siyaram Silk Mills
1,049
1,119
1,354
21.0
going ahead. Stock currently trades at an inexpensive
valuation.
Structural shift in the Lighting industry towards LED lighting will
Surya Roshni
601
137
183
33.5
drive growth.
Source: Company, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
December 17, 2015
Key Upcoming Events
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
Dec 17, 2015
7:00PM
US
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Dec 12
282.00
275.00
12:30AM
US
FOMC rate decision
%
Dec 16
0.25
0.50
Dec 21, 2015
8:30PM
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value
Dec A
(5.90)
--
Dec 22, 2015
8:30PM
US
Existing home sales
Million
Nov
5.36
5.36
7:00PM
US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
3Q T
2.10
1.90
Dec 23, 2015
8:30PM
US
New home sales
Thousands
Nov
495.00
500.00
3:00PM
UK
GDP (YoY)
% Change
3Q F
2.30
--
Dec 29, 2015
8:30PM
US
Consumer Confidence
S.A./ 1985=100
Dec
90.40
--
Jan 1, 2016
6:30AM
China
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Dec
49.60
--
Jan 4, 2016
3:00PM
UK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Dec
52.70
--
Jan 5, 2016
2:25PM
Germany
Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Dec
(13.00)
--
Jan 8, 2016
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Dec
(30.30)
--
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Dec
(24.43)
--
7:00PM
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Dec
211.00
--
7:00PM
US
Unnemployment rate
%
Dec
5.00
--
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
December 17, 2015
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
9.0
8.4
7.0
6.3
8.0
7.5
7.5
7.4
6.0
5.2
7.0
7.0
4.8
6.7
6.7
6.6
5.0
7.0
6.4
4.2
4.1
3.6
3.6
4.0
6.0
2.8
3.0
5.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
4.7
5.0
2.0
4.0
1.0
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
6.0
5.4
5.3
5.4
54.0
5.2
5.0
5.0
4.9
5.0
4.3
4.4
52.0
3.7
3.7
4.0
3.3
50.0
3.0
2.0
48.0
1.0
46.0
-
44.0
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
30.0
9.00
20.0
8.00
10.0
7.00
0.0
6.00
(10.0)
5.00
(20.0)
4.00
(30.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
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Market Outlook
December 17, 2015
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
6.9
6.0
5.3
4.7
4.7
4.0
2.9
2.3
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.0
1.2
1.0
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(4.1)
(4.5)
(6.0)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2015 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
7.3
8.0
6.8
6.0
4.7
4.7
4.0
2.5
2.5
2.6
1.4
1.5
2.0
1.2
0.6
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(3.0)
(3.8)
(6.0)
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
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Market Outlook
December 17, 2015
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
45,016
(3.9)
(4.2)
Russia
Micex
1,755
(1.8)
24.1
India
Nifty
7,751
(1.1)
(3.5)
China
Shanghai Composite
3,545
(1.7)
15.8
South Africa
Top 40
43,702
(5.7)
4.7
Mexico
Mexbol
43,430
(1.7)
5.9
Indonesia
LQ45
790
2.4
(8.7)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,647
(0.9)
(2.1)
Thailand
SET 50
832
(6.8)
(15.5)
USA
Dow Jones
17,749
1.5
4.0
UK
FTSE
6,061
(3.3)
(4.3)
Japan
Nikkei
19,482
(0.8)
15.8
Germany
DAX
10,469
(4.6)
9.7
France
CAC
4,625
(6.3)
12.5
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
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Stock Watch
December 17, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis
Neutral
175
-
3,402
2,075
2,394
14.4
14.4
9.5
11.0
18.4
15.9
3.7
3.2
21.1
21.3
1.7
1.4
United Phosphorus
Buy
424
510
18,175
13,698
15,752
17.6
17.6
32.1
38.5
13.2
11.0
2.6
2.2
21.4
21.3
1.4
1.2
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Ashok Leyland
Buy
88
111
25,029
17,995
21,544
11.4
11.6
3.4
4.7
25.9
18.7
4.5
4.2
17.7
22.2
1.4
1.1
Bajaj Auto
Accumulate
2,452
2,728
70,943
23,695
27,298
21.3
20.4
134.6
151.5
18.2
16.2
5.8
5.0
31.8
30.6
2.6
2.2
Bharat Forge
Accumulate
841
943
19,576
7,867
8,881
20.0
20.3
34.4
41.0
24.4
20.5
4.7
3.9
21.1
20.9
2.6
2.3
Eicher Motors
Buy
16,064
19,036
43,620
15,379
16,498
15.6
16.6
473.2
574.8
34.0
28.0
12.6
9.3
36.7
33.2
2.8
2.5
Hero Motocorp
Accumulate
2,593
2,774
51,788
28,561
31,559
14.7
14.7
151.1
163.2
17.2
15.9
6.6
5.7
38.7
35.6
1.7
1.5
Jamna Auto Industries Neutral
126
-
1,005
1,292
1,486
9.3
9.8
6.0
7.5
21.0
16.8
4.4
3.7
20.7
21.8
0.8
0.7
L G Balakrishnan & Bros Neutral
515
-
808
1,254
1,394
11.6
11.8
35.9
41.7
14.4
12.4
1.9
1.7
13.5
13.8
0.7
0.7
Mahindra and Mahindra Buy
1,219
1,449
75,705
39,031
44,440
13.8
13.9
57.9
67.6
21.1
18.0
3.4
3.0
16.1
16.6
1.6
1.3
Maruti
Neutral
4,619
-
139,529
57,865
68,104
16.4
16.7
176.3
225.5
26.2
20.5
5.1
4.3
19.4
21.2
2.2
1.8
Minda Industries
Neutral
877
-
1,391
2,567
2,965
8.0
8.3
46.1
57.8
19.0
15.2
3.2
2.6
16.7
17.3
0.6
0.5
Motherson Sumi
Accumulate
279
313
36,964
39,343
45,100
8.8
9.1
10.1
12.5
27.7
22.4
8.8
6.9
35.3
34.4
1.0
0.9
Rane Brake Lining
Accumulate
326
366
258
454
511
11.1
11.4
23.8
28.1
13.7
11.6
1.9
1.8
14.2
15.3
0.7
0.6
Setco Automotive
Neutral
44
-
589
594
741
12.7
13.7
8.4
15.8
5.3
2.8
0.6
0.5
10.4
16.9
1.4
1.2
Tata Motors
Accumulate
381
402
109,887
255,254
301,772
12.9
13.4
23.7
37.3
16.1
10.2
2.0
1.6
7.4
12.1
0.6
0.5
TVS Motor
Buy
282
338
13,386
11,569
13,648
7.3
8.7
10.3
16.1
27.4
17.5
6.8
5.3
24.8
30.5
1.1
0.9
Amara Raja Batteries
Buy
851
1,040
14,543
4,892
5,871
17.4
17.6
28.8
37.1
29.6
23.0
6.9
5.5
23.4
24.1
2.9
2.4
Exide Industries
Accumulate
144
162
12,240
6,950
7,784
14.4
14.8
6.6
7.3
21.8
19.7
2.8
2.5
12.6
12.8
1.5
1.3
Apollo Tyres
Accumulate
150
171
7,648
12,146
12,689
16.8
16.0
21.2
19.0
7.1
7.9
1.2
1.0
16.5
13.0
0.7
0.7
Ceat
Accumulate
1,019
1,119
4,120
6,041
6,597
14.1
13.7
99.5
111.9
10.2
9.1
2.0
1.7
19.6
18.5
0.8
0.7
JK Tyres
Neutral
108
-
2,444
7,446
7,669
15.2
14.0
19.6
18.4
5.5
5.9
1.4
1.2
25.2
19.5
0.7
0.6
Swaraj Engines
Neutral
938
-
1,165
552
630
14.2
14.7
44.6
54.1
21.0
17.3
4.9
4.5
23.2
25.6
2.0
1.7
Subros
Neutral
96
-
576
1,268
1,488
11.6
11.9
3.7
6.6
25.9
14.5
1.7
1.6
6.8
11.4
0.8
0.6
Indag Rubber
Neutral
208
-
545
283
329
17.0
17.2
13.0
15.4
16.0
13.5
3.5
2.9
21.8
21.6
1.6
1.4
Capital Goods
ACE
Neutral
42
-
420
660
839
4.7
8.2
1.0
3.9
42.5
10.9
1.3
1.2
3.2
11.3
0.8
0.6
BEML
Neutral
1,121
-
4,666
3,277
4,006
6.0
8.9
29.2
64.3
38.4
17.4
2.1
2.0
5.7
11.7
1.5
1.2
BGR Energy
Neutral
115
-
831
3,615
3,181
9.5
9.4
16.7
12.4
6.9
9.3
0.7
0.6
10.0
7.0
0.6
0.8
BHEL
Neutral
168
-
41,132
33,722
35,272
10.8
11.7
10.5
14.2
16.0
11.8
1.2
1.1
7.0
9.0
1.3
1.2
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Stock Watch
December 17, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Capital Goods
Blue Star
Accumulate
373
429
3,356
3,548
3,977
6.3
6.9
13.7
17.2
27.2
21.7
6.9
4.5
26.1
25.4
1.0
0.9
Crompton Greaves
Accumulate
186
204
11,683
13,484
14,687
4.9
6.2
4.5
7.1
41.4
26.3
2.9
2.7
7.2
10.8
1.0
0.9
Inox Wind
Buy
352
505
7,806
4,980
5,943
17.0
17.5
26.6
31.6
13.2
11.1
4.0
2.9
35.0
30.0
1.7
1.4
KEC International
Neutral
151
-
3,876
8,791
9,716
6.1
6.8
5.4
8.2
27.9
18.4
2.8
2.6
10.0
14.0
0.7
0.6
Thermax
Neutral
905
-
10,785
6,413
7,525
7.4
8.5
30.5
39.3
29.7
23.0
4.6
4.0
15.0
17.0
1.7
1.4
Cement
ACC
Buy
1,350
1,630
25,347
13,151
14,757
16.4
18.3
63.9
83.4
21.1
16.2
2.7
2.5
13.3
16.1
1.8
1.5
Ambuja Cements
Buy
194
233
30,138
11,564
12,556
19.4
20.7
8.9
10.1
21.8
19.2
2.7
2.6
12.8
13.8
2.3
2.0
HeidelbergCement
Neutral
77
-
1,749
1,772
1,926
13.3
15.4
1.0
3.0
77.2
25.7
2.0
1.8
2.6
7.9
1.6
1.3
India Cements
Buy
84
112
2,593
4,216
4,840
18.0
19.5
4.0
9.9
21.1
8.5
0.8
0.8
4.0
9.5
0.9
0.8
JK Cement
Buy
642
744
4,489
3,661
4,742
10.1
15.8
18.0
61.0
35.7
10.5
2.6
2.3
7.5
22.9
1.7
1.3
J K Lakshmi Cement
Buy
330
430
3,885
2,947
3,616
16.7
19.9
11.5
27.2
28.7
12.1
2.7
2.4
9.8
20.8
1.7
1.4
Mangalam Cements
Neutral
210
-
560
1,053
1,347
10.5
13.3
8.4
26.0
25.0
8.1
1.1
1.0
4.3
12.5
0.9
0.7
Orient Cement
Accumulate
165
183
3,380
1,854
2,524
21.2
22.2
7.7
11.1
21.4
14.9
3.1
2.7
13.3
15.7
2.6
1.8
Ramco Cements
Neutral
374
-
8,897
4,036
4,545
20.8
21.3
15.1
18.8
24.8
19.9
3.0
2.7
12.9
14.3
2.7
2.3
Shree Cement^
Neutral
10,815
-
37,675
7,150
8,742
26.7
28.6
228.0
345.5
47.4
31.3
7.0
5.9
15.7
20.3
5.0
4.0
UltraTech Cement
Buy
2,849
3,282
78,169
25,021
30,023
19.1
21.6
89.0
132.0
32.0
21.6
3.7
3.2
12.2
15.9
3.2
2.7
Construction
ITNL
Neutral
84
-
2,750
7,360
8,825
34.0
35.9
7.0
9.0
11.9
9.3
0.4
0.4
3.2
3.7
3.7
3.6
KNR Constructions
Buy
563
673
1,583
937
1,470
14.3
14.0
33.5
38.6
16.8
14.6
2.6
2.2
15.4
15.4
1.8
1.1
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,281
1,646
119,307
65,065
77,009
11.5
11.7
61.5
65.6
20.8
19.5
2.1
1.9
13.4
14.0
2.0
1.7
Gujarat Pipavav Port
Neutral
153
-
7,401
629
684
51.0
52.2
6.4
5.9
23.9
26.0
3.2
2.9
15.9
12.7
11.4
10.3
MBL Infrastructures
Buy
209
285
865
2,313
2,797
12.2
14.6
19.0
20.0
11.0
10.4
1.1
1.1
11.3
10.6
1.1
1.0
Nagarjuna Const.
Neutral
74
-
4,128
7,892
8,842
8.8
9.1
3.0
5.3
24.8
14.0
1.2
1.1
5.0
8.5
0.8
0.6
PNC Infratech
Accumulate
531
558
2,723
1,873
2,288
13.2
13.5
24.0
32.0
22.1
16.6
2.2
1.9
12.1
12.3
1.6
1.3
Simplex Infra
Neutral
315
-
1,558
5,955
6,829
10.3
10.5
16.0
31.0
19.7
10.2
1.0
1.0
5.3
9.9
0.8
0.7
Power Mech Projects
Neutral
621
-
914
1,539
1,801
12.8
12.7
59.0
72.1
10.5
8.6
1.6
1.3
18.6
16.8
0.6
0.5
Sadbhav Engineering
Neutral
324
-
5,553
3,481
4,219
10.7
10.8
8.0
12.0
40.5
27.0
3.8
3.3
10.3
13.5
1.9
1.5
NBCC
Accumulate
982
1,089
11,781
7,382
9,506
7.7
8.6
39.8
54.4
24.7
18.1
6.0
4.7
26.7
29.1
1.4
1.0
SIPL
Neutral
98
-
3,452
675
1,042
62.4
64.7
-
-
3.7
4.2
-
-
16.8
11.3
Financials
Allahabad Bank
Neutral
68
-
4,090
8,569
9,392
2.8
2.9
16.3
27.5
4.2
2.5
0.4
0.3
7.6
11.9
-
-
www.angelbroking.com
Stock Watch
December 17, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Financials
Axis Bank
Buy
437
630
104,013
26,473
31,527
3.5
3.6
35.7
43.5
12.2
10.1
2.4
2.1
17.9
18.9
-
-
Bank of Baroda
Neutral
159
-
36,682
18,485
21,025
1.9
2.0
13.5
21.1
11.8
7.5
0.9
0.8
7.3
10.6
-
-
Bank of India
Neutral
116
-
9,178
15,972
17,271
1.9
2.0
15.3
33.4
7.6
3.5
0.3
0.3
3.6
7.6
-
-
Canara Bank
Neutral
241
-
13,059
15,441
16,945
2.0
2.1
46.6
70.4
5.2
3.4
0.5
0.4
8.0
11.2
-
-
Dena Bank
Neutral
41
-
2,662
3,440
3,840
2.1
2.3
7.3
10.0
5.7
4.1
0.4
0.4
6.1
7.9
-
-
Federal Bank
Neutral
54
-
9,334
3,477
3,999
3.0
3.0
5.0
6.2
10.8
8.7
1.1
1.0
10.6
11.9
-
-
HDFC
Neutral
1,219
-
192,431
10,358
11,852
3.3
3.3
41.1
47.0
29.7
25.9
5.7
5.1
24.7
24.9
-
-
HDFC Bank
Buy
1,067
1,262
269,203
38,309
47,302
4.3
4.3
49.3
61.1
21.6
17.5
3.7
3.2
18.5
19.7
-
-
ICICI Bank
Buy
252
354
146,461
34,279
39,262
3.3
3.3
21.0
24.4
12.0
10.3
2.0
1.7
14.4
14.7
-
-
IDBI Bank
Neutral
82
-
13,217
9,625
10,455
1.8
1.8
8.5
14.2
9.7
5.8
0.6
0.5
5.9
9.3
-
-
Indian Bank
Neutral
114
-
5,487
6,160
6,858
2.5
2.5
24.5
29.8
4.7
3.8
0.4
0.3
7.7
8.6
-
-
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
477
571
24,093
3,101
3,745
2.5
2.5
33.0
40.2
14.5
11.9
2.7
2.3
19.7
20.5
-
-
Oriental Bank
Neutral
134
-
4,024
7,643
8,373
2.4
2.4
37.2
45.4
3.6
3.0
0.3
0.3
8.2
9.4
-
-
Punjab Natl.Bank
Neutral
121
-
23,809
23,638
26,557
2.8
2.8
17.9
27.2
6.8
4.5
0.7
0.6
8.5
12.0
-
-
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
19
-
2,619
1,965
2,185
2.5
2.5
2.5
3.3
7.8
5.9
0.8
0.7
9.5
11.7
-
-
St Bk of India
Buy
227
283
176,448
82,520
93,299
2.7
2.8
20.0
24.5
11.4
9.3
1.2
1.1
11.5
12.8
-
-
Union Bank
Neutral
146
-
10,064
12,646
14,129
2.3
2.4
31.0
39.1
4.7
3.8
0.5
0.4
9.8
11.4
-
-
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
34
-
2,904
3,536
3,827
1.9
1.9
5.5
6.7
6.1
5.1
0.5
0.5
7.8
8.8
-
-
Yes Bank
Buy
698
921
29,274
7,190
9,011
3.2
3.3
58.2
69.7
12.0
10.0
2.1
1.8
19.2
19.6
-
-
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
867
-
83,172
16,553
19,160
16.0
16.2
17.7
21.5
49.1
40.3
13.0
11.7
29.4
31.2
4.9
4.2
Britannia
Neutral
2,814
-
33,757
8,065
9,395
9.6
10.2
47.2
65.5
59.6
43.0
19.8
18.7
38.3
41.2
4.0
3.5
Colgate
Neutral
995
-
27,056
4,836
5,490
19.5
19.7
48.5
53.2
20.5
18.7
15.0
13.1
99.8
97.5
5.5
4.8
Dabur India
Neutral
270
-
47,453
9,370
10,265
17.1
17.2
7.3
8.1
36.8
33.3
11.1
9.0
33.7
30.6
5.0
4.5
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
6,609
-
27,795
4,919
5,742
17.2
17.4
168.3
191.2
39.3
34.6
11.1
9.5
28.8
28.9
5.2
4.4
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
1,318
-
44,865
10,168
12,886
16.1
16.1
32.1
38.4
41.1
34.3
8.4
7.7
19.7
21.0
4.5
3.5
HUL
Neutral
854
-
184,740
34,940
38,957
17.5
17.7
20.8
24.7
41.0
34.6
45.7
36.5
110.5
114.2
5.1
4.5
ITC
Buy
320
382
256,637
41,068
45,068
37.8
37.4
13.9
15.9
23.0
20.1
7.7
6.8
34.1
33.8
5.9
5.3
Marico
Neutral
437
-
28,177
6,551
7,766
15.7
16.0
10.4
12.5
42.1
34.9
12.2
10.2
33.2
32.4
4.2
3.6
Nestle*
Accumulate
5,821
6,646
56,120
11,291
12,847
22.2
22.3
158.9
184.6
36.6
31.5
19.2
17.2
55.0
57.3
4.8
4.2
www.angelbroking.com
Stock Watch
December 17, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FMCG
Tata Global
Accumulate
137
144
8,618
8,635
9,072
9.8
9.9
6.5
7.6
21.0
18.0
2.1
2.0
6.8
7.4
0.9
0.9
IT
HCL Tech^
Buy
848
1,132
119,466
42,038
47,503
23.2
23.5
55.8
62.9
15.2
13.5
3.5
2.7
23.0
19.8
2.4
2.0
Infosys
Buy
1,095
1,306
251,607
60,250
66,999
28.0
28.0
58.3
63.7
18.8
17.2
3.9
3.4
20.9
19.7
3.5
3.0
TCS
Buy
2,407
3,165
474,302
111,274
126,852
28.4
28.7
125.4
143.9
19.2
16.7
7.6
7.0
39.9
42.2
3.9
3.3
Tech Mahindra
Buy
524
646
50,675
25,566
28,890
16.0
17.0
26.3
31.9
19.9
16.4
3.6
3.1
17.9
18.6
1.8
1.5
Wipro
Buy
555
719
137,100
52,414
58,704
23.7
23.8
38.4
42.3
14.5
13.1
2.8
2.5
19.5
18.0
2.2
1.8
Media
D B Corp
Accumulate
326
356
5,995
2,241
2,495
27.8
27.9
21.8
25.6
15.0
12.8
3.9
3.5
26.7
28.5
2.6
2.3
HT Media
Neutral
80
-
1,855
2,495
2,603
11.2
11.2
7.3
8.6
10.9
9.3
0.9
0.8
7.4
8.1
0.2
0.2
Jagran Prakashan
Accumulate
154
169
5,030
2,170
2,355
27.2
26.2
8.9
9.9
17.3
15.5
3.6
3.2
20.9
20.5
2.2
2.0
Sun TV Network
Neutral
390
-
15,361
2,779
3,196
70.2
70.5
22.8
27.3
17.1
14.3
4.2
3.8
26.7
28.3
5.3
4.6
Hindustan Media
Neutral
283
-
2,080
920
1,031
20.0
20.0
19.2
20.9
14.8
13.6
2.4
2.1
16.4
15.3
1.8
1.6
Ventures
Metals & Mining
Coal India
Buy
316
380
199,818
76,167
84,130
19.9
22.3
22.4
25.8
14.1
12.3
5.1
5.0
35.5
41.0
2.0
1.7
Hind. Zinc
Buy
148
175
62,345
14,641
14,026
50.4
50.4
17.7
16.0
8.4
9.2
1.3
1.2
16.2
13.2
1.9
1.7
Hindalco
Neutral
79
-
16,220
104,356
111,186
8.7
9.5
6.7
11.1
11.7
7.1
0.4
0.4
3.5
5.9
0.7
0.6
JSW Steel
Neutral
1,009
-
24,383
42,308
45,147
16.4
20.7
(10.3)
49.5
20.4
1.1
1.1
(1.0)
5.6
1.6
1.5
NMDC
Neutral
89
-
35,207
8,237
10,893
46.6
44.5
10.0
11.7
8.9
7.6
1.0
0.9
12.5
13.0
4.1
3.1
SAIL
Neutral
45
-
18,647
45,915
53,954
7.2
10.5
1.5
4.4
30.0
10.3
0.4
0.4
2.3
4.1
1.1
0.9
Vedanta
Neutral
84
-
24,918
71,445
81,910
26.2
26.3
12.9
19.2
6.5
4.4
0.5
0.4
7.2
8.9
0.8
0.6
Tata Steel
Neutral
245
-
23,785
126,760
137,307
8.9
11.3
6.4
23.1
38.5
10.6
0.8
0.7
2.0
7.1
0.8
0.7
Oil & Gas
Cairn India
Neutral
131
-
24,579
11,323
12,490
49.4
51.0
20.7
20.7
6.3
6.4
0.4
0.4
6.4
6.1
1.2
0.6
GAIL
Neutral
344
-
43,642
64,856
70,933
9.1
9.6
24.0
28.9
14.4
11.9
1.2
1.2
8.8
9.6
0.9
0.8
ONGC
Neutral
227
-
193,825
154,564
167,321
36.8
37.4
28.6
32.5
7.9
7.0
1.0
0.9
12.7
13.5
1.5
1.4
Petronet LNG
Neutral
241
-
18,090
29,691
31,188
5.8
6.2
12.8
13.4
18.9
18.0
2.8
2.5
15.8
14.8
0.7
0.6
Indian Oil Corp
Accumulate
426
455
103,370
359,607
402,760
5.9
6.1
42.5
48.7
10.0
8.7
1.3
1.2
14.1
14.4
0.4
0.3
Reliance Industries
Accumulate
978
1,050
316,795
304,775
344,392
12.6
13.4
91.3
102.6
10.7
9.5
1.2
1.1
11.8
12.0
1.0
0.8
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
669
-
12,609
2,658
3,112
24.1
20.2
24.6
23.9
27.2
28.0
9.8
7.5
42.5
30.2
4.7
4.0
Aurobindo Pharma
Accumulate
820
872
47,906
14,923
17,162
23.0
23.0
38.2
43.6
21.5
18.8
6.6
5.0
36.0
30.2
3.6
3.0
Aventis*
Neutral
4,439
-
10,224
2,082
2,371
17.4
20.8
118.2
151.5
37.6
29.3
5.5
4.4
19.9
25.5
4.6
3.8
Cadila Healthcare
Neutral
394
-
40,341
10,224
11,840
21.0
22.0
14.6
17.6
27.0
22.4
7.4
5.8
30.8
29.0
4.0
3.4
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Stock Watch
December 17, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Pharmaceuticals
Cipla
Neutral
638
-
51,267
14,211
16,611
20.6
19.0
27.0
28.9
23.6
22.1
4.0
3.4
18.4
16.8
3.6
3.0
Dr Reddy's
Buy
3,001
3,933
51,180
16,838
19,575
25.0
23.1
167.5
178.8
17.9
16.8
3.8
3.2
23.1
20.4
3.0
2.5
Dishman Pharma
Neutral
318
-
2,563
1,733
1,906
21.5
21.5
17.0
19.9
18.7
16.0
1.9
1.7
10.5
11.2
2.0
1.7
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
3,284
-
27,812
2,870
3,158
20.0
22.1
59.5
68.3
55.2
48.1
16.3
16.7
28.5
34.3
9.2
8.4
Indoco Remedies
Neutral
313
-
2,880
1,033
1,199
15.9
18.2
9.4
13.6
33.3
23.0
4.9
4.2
15.7
19.7
2.9
2.5
Ipca labs
Buy
749
900
9,447
3,363
3,909
12.9
18.6
13.4
28.0
55.9
26.7
4.0
3.5
7.4
14.0
3.1
2.7
Lupin
Neutral
1,826
-
82,263
13,092
16,561
25.0
27.0
50.4
68.3
36.2
26.7
7.5
5.9
22.8
24.7
6.0
4.6
Sun Pharma
Buy
784
950
188,678
28,163
32,610
25.8
30.7
17.4
26.9
45.1
29.1
4.3
3.7
13.0
16.6
6.2
5.1
Power
Tata Power
Neutral
62
-
16,769
35,923
37,402
22.6
22.8
4.1
5.2
15.3
12.0
1.2
1.1
7.5
9.3
1.4
1.3
NTPC
Buy
134
157
110,242
87,064
98,846
23.5
23.5
11.7
13.2
11.4
10.1
1.3
1.2
11.4
12.1
2.3
2.0
Power Grid
Buy
133
170
69,449
20,702
23,361
86.7
86.4
12.1
13.2
11.0
10.1
1.6
1.4
15.6
15.1
8.3
7.7
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
320
-
127,997
101,748
109,191
32.1
31.7
12.0
12.5
26.7
25.6
1.8
1.7
6.9
6.7
1.9
1.7
Idea Cellular
Neutral
136
-
48,798
34,282
36,941
32.0
31.5
5.9
6.2
23.0
21.9
2.1
1.9
9.9
9.3
2.0
1.9
zOthers
Abbott India
Neutral
5,479
-
11,643
2,715
3,153
14.5
14.1
134.3
152.2
40.8
36.0
10.2
8.4
27.4
25.6
4.0
3.4
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
198
341
1,995
4,719
5,287
5.2
5.8
8.6
12.7
23.1
15.6
2.6
2.3
11.4
14.8
0.4
0.4
Finolex Cables
Neutral
261
-
3,985
2,520
2,883
12.2
12.0
12.7
14.2
20.6
18.4
2.8
2.5
13.6
13.5
1.3
1.1
Goodyear India*
Accumulate
562
622
1,295
1,888
1,680
12.1
11.9
62.2
56.6
9.0
9.9
2.1
1.8
25.9
19.7
0.5
0.5
Hitachi
Neutral
1,383
-
3,760
1,779
2,081
7.8
8.8
21.8
33.4
63.4
41.4
10.2
8.3
17.4
22.1
2.2
1.8
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
299
-
5,414
1,620
1,847
11.5
11.5
7.3
8.5
41.0
35.3
5.3
4.9
13.3
14.4
3.2
2.7
MRF
Buy
38,788
45,575
16,450
20,316
14,488
21.4
21.1
5,488.0
3,798.0
7.1
10.2
2.4
2.0
41.1
21.2
0.8
1.0
Page Industries
Neutral
13,149
-
14,667
1,929
2,450
19.8
20.1
229.9
299.0
57.2
44.0
25.2
17.5
52.1
47.1
7.6
6.0
Relaxo Footwears
Neutral
482
-
5,789
1,767
2,152
12.3
12.5
19.3
25.1
25.1
19.2
6.1
4.7
27.7
27.8
3.3
2.7
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
1,119
1,354
1,049
1,636
1,815
11.5
11.5
89.9
104.1
12.5
10.8
2.1
1.8
17.9
17.8
0.8
0.7
Styrolution ABS India*
Neutral
701
-
1,232
1,271
1,440
8.6
9.2
32.0
41.1
21.9
17.1
2.2
2.0
10.7
12.4
0.9
0.8
TVS Srichakra
Buy
2,808
3,240
2,150
2,101
2,338
15.7
15.0
248.6
270.0
11.3
10.4
4.9
3.5
43.6
34.0
1.1
0.9
HSIL
Neutral
295
-
2,133
2,123
2,384
16.1
16.5
15.0
18.9
19.6
15.6
1.5
1.4
8.0
9.4
1.3
1.2
Kirloskar Engines India
Neutral
245
-
3,543
2,471
2,826
8.8
10.4
9.1
13.3
26.8
18.4
2.6
2.4
9.7
13.4
1.1
0.9
Ltd
M M Forgings
Buy
522
614
629
511
615
21.7
21.6
43.1
55.8
12.1
9.4
2.2
1.8
19.9
21.2
1.4
1.1
Banco Products (India)
Neutral
141
-
1,009
1,208
1,353
11.0
12.3
10.8
14.5
13.1
9.8
1.5
1.3
11.9
14.5
0.8
0.7
www.angelbroking.com
Stock Watch
December 17, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E
zOthers
Competent Automobiles Neutral
147
-
90
1,040
1,137
3.2
3.1
25.7
28.0
5.7
5.3
0.9
0.8
15.0
14.3
0.1
0.1
Nilkamal
Neutral
1,017
-
1,518
1,910
2,083
10.5
10.3
63.3
69.2
16.1
14.7
2.6
2.3
17.6
16.5
0.9
0.7
Visaka Industries
Accumulate
126
144
200
1,086
1,197
9.9
10.3
21.5
28.8
5.9
4.4
0.6
0.5
9.6
11.6
0.4
0.3
Transport Corporation of
Neutral
298
-
2,270
2,830
3,350
8.8
9.0
14.4
18.3
20.8
16.3
3.2
2.8
15.4
17.1
0.9
0.8
India
Elecon Engineering
Neutral
84
-
918
1,369
1,533
13.7
14.9
3.3
6.1
25.4
13.9
1.7
1.5
6.6
11.4
1.0
0.9
Surya Roshni
Buy
137
183
601
2,992
3,223
8.1
8.4
14.7
18.3
9.3
7.5
0.9
0.8
9.7
11.0
0.5
0.4
MT Educare
Buy
138
169
550
286
366
18.3
17.7
7.7
9.4
17.9
14.7
3.8
3.3
20.2
21.1
1.8
1.4
Radico Khaitan
Buy
110
156
1,469
1,565
1,687
12.2
13.0
5.7
7.1
19.4
15.6
1.6
1.5
8.3
9.6
1.4
1.3
Garware Wall Ropes
Accumulate
391
423
855
861
967
10.9
10.9
24.0
28.2
16.3
13.9
2.4
2.1
14.6
14.9
1.0
0.9
Wonderla Holidays
Neutral
368
-
2,079
206
308
44.0
43.6
9.0
12.9
40.9
28.5
5.6
5.1
13.7
17.8
10.0
6.7
Linc Pen & Plastics
Neutral
188
-
278
340
371
8.3
8.9
10.8
13.2
17.4
14.3
2.8
2.4
16.0
17.1
0.9
0.8
The Byke Hospitality
Accumulate
163
181
654
222
287
20.5
20.5
5.6
7.6
28.9
21.6
5.5
4.5
18.9
20.8
3.0
2.3
Interglobe Aviation
Neutral
1,193
-
42,980
17,022
21,122
20.7
14.5
63.9
53.7
18.7
22.2
28.0
22.9
149.9
103.2
2.6
2.1
Coffee Day Enterprises
Neutral
270
-
5,567
2,692
2,964
17.0
18.6
-
4.7
-
57.0
3.3
3.1
0.2
5.5
2.5
2.3
Ltd
Navneet Education
Buy
81
97
1,930
998
1,062
24.1
24.0
5.8
6.1
14.1
13.3
3.1
2.7
22.0
20.6
2.0
1.9
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on December 16, 2015
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
December 17, 2015
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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