Market Outlook
August 17, 2015
Dealer’s Diary
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE Sensex
1.9
518
28,067
Indian markets are expected to open on a flat note tracking the SGX Nifty.
Nifty
1.9
163
8,519
US markets closed marginally higher led by Morgan Stanley who is currently
MID CAP
2.4
264
11,454
undertaking buy back of its shares.
SMALL CAP
1.7
199
11,767
BSE HC
1.9
344
18,059
European stocks ended in the red in the wake of currency devaluation done by the
BSE PSU
1.3
95
7,414
Chinese government.
BANKEX
3.0
636
21,488
Indian markets rallied posting gain of about 2%, after the wholesale price index
AUTO
2.4
456
19,462
(WPI) slipped further into the negative zone thereby raising expectations that the
METAL
1.4
105
7,806
Reserve Bank of India would announce a rate cut.
OIL & GAS
0.8
79
9,508
BSE IT
0.5
61
11,622
News & Result Analysis
Result Review: Cipla, Elecon Engineering, Indag Rubber
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Refer detailed news & result analysis on the following page
Dow Jones
0.4
69
17,477
Markets Today
NASDAQ
0.3
15
5,048
FTSE
(0.3)
(18)
6,551
The trend deciding level for the day is 27,937 / 8,477 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up
Nikkei
(0.4)
(76)
20,519
to 28,231 - 28,394 / 8,572 - 8,626 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
Hang Sang
(0.1)
(28)
23,991
27,937 / 8,477 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct towards
Straits Times
0.7
22
3,114
27,773 - 27,480 / 8,423 - 8,328 levels.
Shanghai Com
0.3
11
3,965
Indices
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
Indian ADR
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
SENSEX
27,480
27,773
27,937
28,231
28,394
NIFTY
8,328
8,423
8,477
8,572
8,626
INFY
(0.3)
(0.1)
$18.0
WIT
0.4
0.1
$12.5
Net Inflows (August 12, 2015)
IBN
0.9
0.1
$9.8
` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
MTD
YTD
HDB
0.2
0.1
$63.0
FII
3,776
5,571
(1,794)
(459)
140,511
MFs
1,485
949
536
217
58,165
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Advances
1,809
1,082
FII Derivatives (August 14, 2015)
Declines
1,046
420
` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
Open Interest
Unchanged
101
79
Index Futures
2,250
1,814
436
14,936
Stock Futures
2,876
2,946
(70)
52,573
Volumes (` cr)
BSE
3,231
Gainers / Losers
NSE
17,997
Gainer
Loser
Company
Price (`)
chg (%)
Company
Price (`)
chg (%)
DLF
135
18.3
INFRATEL
410
(5.2)
HDIL
85
11.5
KAILASH
5
(4.8)
PNB
166
8.8
KSCL
602
(4.6)
ADANIPORTS
364
8.7
NATIONALUM
32
(4.4)
JETAIRWAYS
400
7.9
GPPL
195
(4.3)
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
August 17, 2015
Result Review
Cipla (CMP: `741/ TP: / Upside :)
For 1QFY2016 Cipla posted robust results. On sales front, the company posted
sales of `3,777cr V/s
`3,390cr expected V/s `2,647cr in 1QFY2015, a yoy
growth of 42.7%. The sales growth came in mainly on back of the export
formulations, which grew by
78.5% yoy. Overall the domestic formulation
(`1,397cr) posted a yoy growth of 8.4% yoy, while exports (`2,380cr) posted a yoy
growth of 75.3% yoy. The results include one-off revenue from the US market in
the export formulations. On the operating front, the gross margins came in at
66.9% V/s 63.4% expected V/s 61.3% in 1QFY2015, mainly on back of improved
sales mix. OPM consequently, came in at 25.5% V/s 19.5% expected and V/s
17.7% in 1QFY2015. Thus, the net profit front came in at `651cr V/s `420cr
expected `295cr in 1QFY2015, a yoy growth of 120.7%. For FY2016, the
company expects a 20% yoy growth. We remain neutral on the stock.
Y/E
Sales OPM PAT EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV EV/Sales EV/EBITDA
Mar
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2016E
14,051
18.9
2,019
25.1
17.2
29.5
4.7
4.2
22.5
FY2017E
16,515
18.7
2,317
28.9
16.9
25.7
4.0
3.5
18.9
Elecon Engineering (CMP: `81/ TP: `87/ Upside: 8.3%)
For 1QFY2016, Elecon Engineering reported a mixed set of numbers. The
standalone top-line grew marginally by 1.8% yoy to `98cr. We had revenue
estimate of `109cr for the quarter. The EBITDA grew by 30.3% yoy to `23cr and
the EBITDA margin expanded by 515bp yoy to 23.5% mainly due to lower raw
material cost which declined by 618bp yoy to 48% of sales. We had estimated
EBITDA to be at `24cr and EBITDA margin to be at 21.9%. Depreciation expense
declined by 17.1% yoy to `12cr and other income declined by 60.0% yoy to `2cr.
As a result, the net profit came in at `4cr against our estimate of `5cr.
On Consolidated basis, top-line witnessed a marginal decline of 4.0% yoy to
`257cr. EBITDA and EBITDA margin grew by 18.1% yoy and 224bp yoy to `31cr
and 12.0%, respectively. 31bp yoy decline in raw material cost, 96bp yoy decline
in employee cost and 97bp yoy decline in other expense (all as a percentage of
sales) resulted in EBITDA margin expansion. Interest and depreciation expense
declined by 20.2% yoy and 16.1% yoy to `14cr and `16cr, respectively and other
income declined by
43.2% yoy to
`3cr. Consequently, Elecon reported
consolidated net profit of `0.7cr against net loss of `7cr in the same quarter of the
previous year.
As for segmental performance, Material Handling segment reported 14.2% yoy
decline in revenue to `89cr while the segment reported loss of `2cr. Transmission
Equipment segment revenue remained unchanged at `179cr while the profit
increased by 295.1% yoy to `19cr.
At current market price, the stock is trading at 12.9x its FY2017E earnings. We
have an Accumulate rating on the stock with the target price of `87 based on
target PE of 14.0x for FY2017
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
August 17, 2015
Y/E
Sales OPM
PAT
EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2016E
1,452
14.0
48
4.4
8.6
18.2
1.5
6.6
0.9
FY2017E
1,596
14.7
68
6.2 11.2 12.9
1.4
5.3
0.8
Indag Rubber (CMP: `200/ TP: -/ Upside: -)
For 1QFY2016, Indag Rubber (IRL)’s reported a top-line growth of 10.1% yoy to
~`64cr (slightly below our expectation of ~`68cr). However, we are seeing
volume improvement since the last three quarters on the back of improvement in
industrial activity in the country. Higher utilization in the transportation segment led
to higher sales growth in retreading products. On the operating front, the
company reported margin improvement (OPM up by 170bp yoy to 18.0%); the
operating profit was up ~22% yoy, primarily on account of lower raw material
costs (prices of natural rubber and crude based raw materials were soft during the
quarter). This led to a decent net profit growth of ~16% yoy to ~`8cr (our estimate
was of ~`7.5cr).
Going ahead, we expect IRL to report a healthy top-line growth owing to recovery
in commercial vehicle (CV) volumes in the domestic market. However, on the
bottom-line front, we are not expecting strong growth as the excise duty benefits
would subside post FY2016, thus impacting the earnings. Hence we are Neutral
on stock.
Economic and Political News
WPI at record low: RBI reducing rates will change nothing
Devaluation of Chinese currency a serious issue: Nirmala Sitharaman
RBI to transfer `66,000 cr surplus to government
Corporate News
SBI to tap e-commerce, digital space
Jet Airways swings to profit in June quarter on lower fuel costs
Maggi row: Jaipur's 'safe' lab might redo study
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
August 17, 2015
Top Picks
Large Cap
Market
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
Cap (` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Axis Bank
Financials
135,668
Buy
571
716
25.4
ICICI Bank
Financials
175,486
Buy
302
370
22.4
Inox Wind
Capital Goods
8,865
Buy
399
505
26.4
LIC Housing Fin. Financials
25,430
Buy
504
590
17.1
Power Grid
Power
72,353
Buy
138
170
22.9
TCS
IT
527,613
Buy
2,694
3,168
17.6
Tech Mahindra IT
53,393
Buy
555
646
16.4
Yes Bank
Financials
33,311
Buy
797
989
24.1
Infosys
IT
263,919 Accumulate
1,149
1,306
13.7
Sun Pharma
Pharmaceuticals
216,315 Accumulate
899
950
5.7
Source: Angel Research, Bloomberg
Mid Cap
Market
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
Cap (` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Bajaj Electricals
Others
2,617
Buy
260
341
31.4
Garware Wall Ropes Others
673
Buy
308
390
26.7
Hindustan Media
Media
1,772
Buy
241
292
21.0
JK Tyre
Auto Ancillary
2,420
Buy
107
147
37.8
MBL Infrastructures Construction
1,062
Buy
256
395
53.9
Radico Khaitan
Others
1,268
Buy
95
112
17.5
Surya Roshni
Others
597
Buy
136
193
41.7
Minda Industries
Auto Ancillary
933 Accumulate
588
652
10.8
MT Educare
Others
501 Accumulate
126
141
12.1
Source: Angel Research, Bloomberg
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
August 17, 2015
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
August 18, 2015
6:00PM
US
Building permits
Thousands
Jul
1,337.00
1,210.00
6:00PM
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Jul
1,174.00
1,200.00
2:00PM
UK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Jul
--
August 19, 2015
6:00PM
US
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Jul
0.30
0.20
August 20, 2015
6:00PM
US
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Aug 15
274.00
270.00
7:30PM
US
Existing home sales
Million
Jul
5.49
5.42
August 21, 2015
7:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value
Aug A
(7.10)
(6.80)
1:00PM
Germany PMI Services
Value
Aug P
53.80
--
1:00PM
Germany PMI Manufacturing
Value
Aug P
51.80
--
August 25, 2015
7:30PM
US
New home sales
Thousands
Jul
482.00
--
7:30PM
US
Consumer Confidence
S.A./ 1985=100
Aug
90.91
--
August 27, 2015
6:00PM
US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
2Q S
2.30
--
August 28, 2015
2:00PM
UK
GDP (YoY)
% Change
2Q P
2.60
--
September 1, 2015
1:25PM
Germany Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Aug
9.00
--
6:30AM
China
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Aug
50.00
--
2:00PM
UK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Aug
51.90
--
September 3, 2015
5:15PM
Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates
%
Sep 3
0.05
--
September 4, 2015
6:00PM
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Aug
215.00
--
6:00PM
US
Unnemployment rate
%
Aug
5.30
--
September 8, 2015
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Aug
(8.30)
--
September 9, 2015
7:00AM
China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Aug
1.60
--
2:00PM
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Jul
1.50
--
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
August 17, 2015
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
9.0
8.4
6.0
5.2
4.8
5.0
8.0
7.5
7.5
3.6
4.0
3.4
7.0
2.8
2.7
6.7
6.7
6.6
2.6
2.5
7.0
6.3
6.4
3.0
2.0
0.9
6.0
0.5
1.0
5.0
4.7
-
5.0
4.5
(1.0)
4.0
(2.0)
(3.0)
3.0
(2.7)
(4.0)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
55.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
8.0
7.4
54.0
7.0
6.8
7.0
53.0
5.6
5.2
5.4
5.3
6.0
4.9
5.0
52.0
4.6
5.0
4.3
51.0
4.0
3.3
3.0
50.0
2.0
49.0
1.0
48.0
-
47.0
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
30.0
9.00
20.0
8.00
10.0
7.00
0.0
6.00
(10.0)
5.00
(20.0)
4.00
(30.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
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Market Outlook
August 17, 2015
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
7.0
5.6
6.0
5.3
4.7
4.0
3.0
2.6
2.1
2.3
2.0
1.1
0.8
(1.6)
(2.2)
(0.9)
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2015 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
10.0
7.5
8.0
6.8
6.0
5.2
4.8
3.7
4.0
3.1
2.7
2.0
1.6
2.0
1.2
1.0
(1.0)
(3.8)
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(6.0)
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
August 17, 2015
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
47,508
(10.2)
(16.1)
(15.8)
Russia
Micex
1,712
4.3
1.2
22.4
India
Nifty
8,519
(0.1)
1.7
11.0
China
Shanghai Composite
3,965
2.8
(8.2)
79.7
South Africa
Top 40
45,341
(2.6)
(5.2)
(1.7)
Mexico
Mexbol
43,747
(3.0)
(3.7)
(2.3)
Indonesia
LQ45
776
(5.9)
(13.6)
(11.3)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,597
(8.6)
(13.4)
(14.7)
Thailand
SET 50
925
(5.7)
(6.3)
(8.2)
USA
Dow Jones
17,477
(3.2)
(4.2)
4.9
UK
FTSE
6,551
(3.0)
(5.9)
(2.8)
Japan
Nikkei
20,519
0.8
3.7
35.4
Germany
DAX
10,985
(4.8)
(4.0)
19.1
France
CAC
4,956
(1.8)
(1.1)
16.9
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
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Market Outlook
August 17, 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis
Neutral
224
-
4,346
2,075
2,394
14.4
14.4
9.5
11.0
23.5
20.3
4.7
4.0
21.1
21.3
2.1
1.8
United Phosphorus
Neutral
548
-
23,494
13,698
15,752
17.6
17.6
32.1
38.5
17.1
14.2
3.4
2.8
21.4
21.3
1.8
1.5
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Ashok Leyland
Accumulate
89
94
25,314
17,850
20,852
10.6
11.1
3.2
4.3
27.8
20.7
4.6
4.3
16.4
20.8
1.4
1.1
Bajaj Auto
Neutral
2,559
-
74,043
23,842
27,264
19.8
19.6
128.4
144.4
19.9
17.7
6.1
5.2
30.5
29.5
2.7
2.3
Eicher Motors
Accumulate
20,601
21,843
55,915
11,681
15,550
15.3
16.9
358.5
564.3
57.5
36.5
17.3
12.8
29.8
34.9
4.7
3.5
Hero Motocorp
Neutral
2,714
-
54,195
28,500
33,028
13.8
14.1
144.2
166.3
18.8
16.3
6.9
5.9
36.7
36.0
1.7
1.5
L G Balakrishnan & Bros Neutral
463
-
727
1,254
1,394
11.6
11.8
35.9
41.7
12.9
11.1
1.8
1.5
13.5
13.8
0.7
0.6
Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate
1,377
1,493
85,496
40,088
45,176
13.8
14.0
59.6
70.4
23.1
19.6
3.8
3.4
16.6
17.2
1.8
1.5
Maruti
Neutral
4,578
-
138,306
58,102
68,587
16.7
16.9
182.0
225.5
25.2
20.3
5.0
4.3
19.9
21.0
2.2
1.8
Minda Industries
Accumulate
588
652
933
2,567
2,965
7.3
8.0
38.8
54.3
15.2
10.8
2.2
1.8
14.4
16.8
0.5
0.4
Rane Brake Lining
Buy
309
366
244
454
511
11.1
11.4
23.8
28.1
13.0
11.0
1.8
1.7
14.2
15.3
0.7
0.6
Setco Automotive
Neutral
231
-
617
594
741
12.7
13.7
8.4
15.9
27.5
14.5
2.9
2.5
10.4
17.0
1.5
1.2
Tata Motors
Buy
355
455
102,597
267,464
311,225
13.7
13.7
34.6
41.8
10.3
8.5
1.3
1.1
13.2
13.9
0.6
0.5
TVS Motor
Accumulate
230
255
10,927
11,839
13,985
7.0
8.0
10.8
15.9
21.3
14.5
5.4
4.3
25.5
29.7
0.9
0.7
Amara Raja Batteries
Neutral
972
-
16,606
5,101
6,326
17.7
17.5
30.8
37.8
31.6
25.7
7.8
6.2
24.6
24.2
3.2
2.5
Exide Industries
Neutral
159
-
13,541
7,363
8,247
13.7
14.5
6.6
7.7
24.1
20.7
3.1
2.8
12.6
13.3
1.6
1.4
Apollo Tyres
Neutral
192
-
9,761
12,428
13,262
16.8
16.4
21.9
21.1
8.8
9.1
1.5
1.3
17.0
14.1
0.9
0.9
Ceat
Neutral
1,055
-
4,269
6,041
6,770
14.3
13.9
101.5
117.7
10.4
9.0
2.1
1.7
20.0
19.2
0.9
0.7
JK Tyres
Buy
107
147
2,420
7,446
7,942
15.2
14.7
19.6
21.0
5.4
5.1
1.4
1.1
25.2
21.7
0.7
0.6
Swaraj Engines
Neutral
961
-
1,193
593
677
14.5
14.8
51.2
60.8
18.8
15.8
4.4
3.9
23.3
24.8
1.9
1.6
Subros
Neutral
88
-
530
1,268
1,488
11.6
11.9
3.7
6.6
23.9
13.4
1.6
1.5
6.8
11.4
0.7
0.6
Indag Rubber
Neutral
200
-
525
283
329
17.0
17.2
13.0
15.4
15.5
13.0
3.4
2.8
21.8
21.6
1.6
1.3
Capital Goods
ACE
Neutral
46
-
458
660
839
4.7
8.2
1.0
3.9
46.3
11.9
1.5
1.3
3.2
11.3
0.8
0.7
BEML
Neutral
1,372
-
5,715
3,277
4,006
6.0
8.9
29.2
64.3
47.0
21.3
2.6
2.4
5.7
11.7
1.8
1.4
BGR Energy
Neutral
132
-
955
3,615
3,181
9.5
9.4
16.7
12.4
7.9
10.7
0.7
0.7
10.0
7.0
0.7
0.8
BHEL
Neutral
262
-
64,041
33,722
35,272
10.8
11.7
10.5
14.2
24.9
18.4
1.8
1.7
7.0
9.0
2.0
1.9
Blue Star
Neutral
374
-
3,360
3,649
4,209
5.0
5.9
9.2
14.7
40.9
25.4
7.4
7.0
9.1
17.5
1.0
0.9
Crompton Greaves
Accumulate
187
204
11,708
13,484
14,687
4.9
6.2
4.5
7.1
41.5
26.3
2.9
2.7
7.2
10.8
1.0
0.9
Inox Wind
Buy
399
505
8,865
4,980
5,943
17.0
17.5
26.6
31.6
15.0
12.6
4.5
3.3
35.0
30.0
1.9
1.6
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
August 17, 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Capital Goods
KEC International
Neutral
143
-
3,683
8,791
9,716
6.1
6.8
5.4
8.2
26.5
17.5
2.7
2.4
10.0
14.0
0.6
0.6
Thermax
Neutral
1,016
-
12,112
6,413
7,525
7.4
8.5
30.5
39.3
33.3
25.9
5.1
4.5
15.0
17.0
1.9
1.5
Cement
ACC
Accumulate
1,375
1,548
25,821
11,856
14,092
14.5
17.8
47.6
76.1
28.9
18.1
3.0
2.7
10.6
15.7
2.0
1.7
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
226
-
35,011
10,569
12,022
20.7
22.2
8.7
10.7
25.9
21.1
3.3
3.1
13.0
15.2
2.9
2.6
India Cements
Buy
84
132
2,582
4,716
5,133
14.9
15.8
1.0
4.5
84.1
18.7
0.9
0.8
1.0
4.5
0.9
0.8
JK Cement
Buy
627
767
4,383
4,056
4,748
14.5
17.0
22.6
41.1
27.7
15.3
2.5
2.2
9.3
15.3
1.5
1.3
J K Lakshmi Cement
Buy
352
443
4,144
3,004
3,618
17.6
19.9
13.9
27.2
25.3
12.9
2.9
2.5
11.8
20.5
1.8
1.4
Mangalam Cements
Buy
227
349
605
1,111
1,336
12.2
15.1
16.3
34.6
13.9
6.6
1.1
1.0
8.2
16.0
0.8
0.6
Orient Cement
Accumulate
171
183
3,500
1,854
2,524
21.2
22.2
7.7
11.1
22.2
15.4
3.2
2.8
13.3
15.7
2.6
1.8
Ramco Cements
Neutral
351
-
8,351
4,036
4,545
20.8
21.3
15.1
18.8
23.2
18.7
2.8
2.5
12.9
14.3
2.6
2.2
Shree Cement^
Neutral
10,977
-
38,240
7,150
8,742
26.7
28.6
228.0
345.5
48.1
31.8
7.1
5.9
15.7
20.3
5.1
4.1
UltraTech Cement
Accumulate
3,108
3,282
85,290
27,562
31,548
20.4
22.3
111.9
143.3
27.8
21.7
3.9
3.4
15.2
16.8
3.2
2.7
Construction
ITNL
Accumulate
120
130
2,954
7,360
8,825
34.0
35.9
1.0
5.0
119.8
24.0
0.5
0.5
0.3
1.4
3.8
3.7
KNR Constructions
Neutral
562
-
1,498
915
1,479
14.3
13.9
20.3
37.2
27.7
15.1
2.5
2.2
9.6
15.6
1.8
1.1
Larsen & Toubro
Accumulate
1,800
2,013
167,465
68,920
82,446
10.9
11.5
57.0
73.0
31.6
24.7
2.9
2.7
13.6
15.5
2.7
2.2
Gujarat Pipavav Port
Neutral
196
-
9,475
740
843
53.1
53.6
8.0
10.0
24.5
19.6
3.8
3.1
20.4
19.4
12.4
10.5
MBL Infrastructures
Buy
256
395
1,062
2,507
2,986
12.4
14.4
21.5
20.5
11.9
12.5
1.4
1.3
12.6
12.7
1.2
1.1
PNC Infratech
Accumulate
477
522
2,448
1,798
2,132
13.2
13.5
22.0
30.0
21.7
15.9
2.0
1.8
11.5
11.4
1.5
1.2
Financials
Allahabad Bank
Neutral
91
-
5,197
8,859
9,817
3.0
3.0
23.7
30.1
3.8
3.0
0.5
0.4
10.6
12.3
-
-
Axis Bank
Buy
571
716
135,668
26,522
31,625
3.6
3.6
36.2
45.4
15.8
12.6
3.1
2.7
18.2
19.6
-
-
Bank of Baroda
Neutral
184
-
40,791
18,934
21,374
2.0
2.0
13.2
15.1
14.0
12.2
1.0
0.9
7.1
7.7
-
-
Bank of India
Neutral
170
-
11,320
17,402
20,003
2.0
2.1
40.3
50.7
4.2
3.4
0.4
0.4
9.0
10.4
-
-
Canara Bank
Neutral
306
-
15,744
15,805
17,745
2.0
2.2
64.3
73.5
4.8
4.2
0.5
0.5
10.8
11.3
-
-
Dena Bank
Neutral
44
-
2,475
3,580
4,040
2.1
2.2
8.4
10.9
5.3
4.0
0.5
0.4
6.8
8.4
-
-
Federal Bank
Neutral
67
-
11,507
3,522
4,045
3.2
3.2
12.2
14.1
5.5
4.8
0.7
0.6
12.9
13.4
-
-
HDFC
Neutral
1,300
-
204,898
11,198
13,321
3.5
3.5
45.1
53.7
28.8
24.2
6.0
5.3
27.2
28.2
-
-
HDFC Bank
Accumulate
1,102
1,255
277,028
38,629
47,500
4.5
4.7
52.6
66.4
21.0
16.6
3.8
3.3
19.6
21.2
-
-
ICICI Bank
Buy
302
370
175,486
36,037
41,647
3.5
3.6
22.9
26.7
13.2
11.3
2.2
1.9
15.7
15.9
-
-
IDBI Bank
Neutral
66
-
10,618
9,806
11,371
1.7
1.9
10.0
16.3
6.7
4.1
0.5
0.4
6.8
10.4
-
-
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
August 17, 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Financials
Indian Bank
Neutral
148
-
7,116
6,454
7,321
2.5
2.6
26.4
33.3
5.6
4.5
0.5
0.4
8.1
9.6
-
-
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
504
590
25,430
2,934
3,511
2.3
2.3
30.9
36.8
16.3
13.7
2.6
2.3
16.8
17.5
-
-
Oriental Bank
Neutral
171
-
5,121
7,930
8,852
2.5
2.5
51.8
57.1
3.3
3.0
0.4
0.3
9.3
9.5
-
-
Punjab Natl.Bank
Neutral
166
-
30,832
24,160
27,777
2.9
3.0
18.5
24.6
9.0
6.8
0.9
0.7
8.8
10.8
-
-
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
23
-
3,132
1,999
2,249
2.4
2.4
3.5
4.0
6.7
5.8
0.8
0.8
12.6
13.1
-
-
St Bk of India
Accumulate
268
285
203,115
86,900
100,550
3.1
3.1
22.1
27.7
12.2
9.7
1.5
1.3
12.7
14.3
-
-
Union Bank
Neutral
208
-
13,231
12,995
14,782
2.4
2.4
32.3
40.9
6.4
5.1
0.8
0.6
10.7
12.3
-
-
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
39
-
3,342
3,474
3,932
1.8
1.9
5.9
7.2
6.6
5.4
0.6
0.5
8.1
9.3
-
-
Yes Bank
Buy
797
989
33,311
7,006
8,825
3.1
3.3
61.4
77.1
13.0
10.3
2.4
2.0
20.1
21.3
-
-
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
895
-
85,891
16,553
19,160
16.0
16.2
17.7
21.5
50.7
41.7
13.5
12.1
29.4
31.2
5.0
4.3
Britannia
Neutral
3,345
-
40,131
8,065
9,395
9.6
10.2
47.2
65.5
70.9
51.1
23.6
22.3
38.3
41.2
4.8
4.1
Colgate
Neutral
1,986
-
27,005
4,836
5,490
19.5
19.7
48.5
53.2
40.9
37.3
30.0
26.1
99.8
97.5
5.5
4.8
Dabur India
Neutral
295
-
51,853
9,370
10,265
17.1
17.2
7.3
8.1
40.2
36.4
12.1
9.9
33.7
30.6
5.4
5.0
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
6,283
-
26,421
4,919
5,742
17.2
17.4
168.3
191.2
37.3
32.9
10.6
9.0
28.8
28.9
4.9
4.2
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
1,293
-
44,034
10,168
12,886
16.1
16.1
32.1
38.4
40.3
33.7
8.2
7.6
19.7
21.0
4.4
3.5
HUL
Neutral
872
-
188,749
34,940
38,957
17.5
17.7
20.8
24.7
41.9
35.3
46.7
37.3
110.5
114.2
5.2
4.6
ITC
Buy
318
409
255,346
41,068
45,068
37.8
37.4
13.9
15.9
22.9
20.0
7.7
6.7
34.1
33.8
5.8
5.3
Marico
Neutral
418
-
26,994
6,551
7,766
15.7
16.0
10.4
12.5
40.3
33.5
11.7
9.7
33.2
32.4
4.0
3.4
Nestle*
Accumulate
6,286
6,646
60,604
11,291
12,847
22.2
22.3
158.9
184.6
39.6
34.1
20.7
18.6
55.0
57.3
5.2
4.5
Tata Global
Buy
132
152
8,331
8,635
9,072
9.8
9.9
6.5
7.6
20.3
17.4
2.0
1.9
6.8
7.4
0.9
0.9
IT
HCL Tech^
Buy
972
1,132
136,710
42,038
47,503
23.5
23.5
56.4
62.9
17.2
15.5
4.0
3.1
23.2
19.8
2.9
2.3
Infosys
Accumulate
1,149
1,306
263,919
60,250
66,999
28.0
28.0
58.3
63.7
19.7
18.0
4.1
3.6
20.9
19.7
3.7
3.2
TCS
Buy
2,694
3,168
527,613
108,420
123,559
28.8
28.7
127.2
143.9
21.2
18.7
8.4
7.8
39.9
41.8
4.5
3.9
Tech Mahindra
Buy
555
646
53,393
25,566
28,890
16.0
17.0
26.3
31.9
21.1
17.4
3.8
3.2
17.9
18.6
1.9
1.6
Wipro
Buy
575
719
141,876
52,414
58,704
23.7
23.8
38.4
42.3
15.0
13.6
2.9
2.6
19.5
18.0
2.3
1.9
Media
D B Corp
Accumulate
320
356
5,884
2,241
2,495
27.8
27.9
21.8
25.6
14.7
12.5
3.8
3.4
26.7
28.5
2.6
2.3
HT Media
Neutral
85
-
1,984
2,495
2,603
11.2
11.2
7.3
8.6
11.7
9.9
0.9
0.8
7.4
8.1
0.3
0.3
Jagran Prakashan
Accumulate
138
156
4,498
1,939
2,122
26.0
26.0
8.3
9.2
16.6
15.0
2.8
2.6
17.5
17.1
2.3
2.1
Sun TV Network
Neutral
351
-
13,823
2,779
3,196
70.2
70.5
22.8
27.3
15.4
12.9
3.8
3.4
26.7
28.3
4.7
4.1
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
August 17, 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Media
Hindustan Media
Buy
241
292
1,772
920
1,031
20.0
20.0
19.2
20.9
12.6
11.6
2.1
1.8
16.4
15.3
1.5
1.3
Ventures
Metals & Mining
Coal India
Buy
377
450
238,411
77,595
89,628
22.9
24.4
27.6
30.0
13.7
12.6
5.9
5.9
33.9
33.2
2.4
2.1
Hind. Zinc
Neutral
145
-
61,394
15,546
16,821
47.5
49.0
19.7
20.3
7.4
7.2
1.3
1.1
17.2
16.6
1.7
1.2
Hindalco
Neutral
93
-
19,266
112,328
119,817
7.7
7.9
16.3
20.1
5.7
4.7
0.4
0.4
8.0
8.5
0.6
0.5
JSW Steel
Neutral
901
-
21,784
48,125
53,595
18.8
21.0
46.9
97.5
19.2
9.2
0.9
0.9
4.4
9.5
1.3
1.1
NMDC
Neutral
97
-
38,616
12,544
13,330
59.5
59.7
16.3
16.5
6.0
5.9
1.1
1.0
5.1
9.9
1.8
1.8
SAIL
Neutral
56
-
23,294
56,365
63,383
6.9
8.0
7.1
8.2
7.9
6.9
0.5
0.5
7.0
7.1
1.0
0.9
Vedanta
Neutral
107
-
31,752
81,842
88,430
30.6
32.8
20.2
25.7
5.3
4.2
0.4
0.4
7.5
8.5
0.8
0.6
Tata Steel
Neutral
237
-
23,028
136,805
149,228
11.3
11.9
26.4
36.8
9.0
6.4
0.7
0.7
6.0
8.0
0.7
0.6
Oil & Gas
Cairn India
Neutral
156
-
29,191
12,617
14,513
33.7
40.0
25.5
27.7
6.1
5.6
0.5
0.4
7.4
7.7
1.0
0.8
GAIL
Neutral
338
-
42,894
75,595
85,554
8.6
8.0
31.8
36.1
10.6
9.4
1.2
1.1
10.7
11.4
0.7
0.6
ONGC
Neutral
271
-
231,469
174,773
192,517
22.7
24.8
34.6
38.2
7.8
7.1
1.1
1.0
14.2
14.9
1.4
1.3
Petronet LNG
Accumulate
189
210
14,164
39,007
40,785
3.8
4.2
9.2
11.0
20.6
17.2
2.3
2.1
11.6
12.7
0.4
0.4
Reliance Industries
Accumulate
967
1,050
313,145
339,083
384,014
7.8
9.5
75.7
94.5
12.8
10.2
1.3
1.2
10.7
12.2
1.3
1.1
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
704
-
13,271
2,601
3,115
21.2
20.2
20.8
23.9
33.8
29.5
10.9
8.2
37.2
31.8
5.1
4.2
Aurobindo Pharma
Accumulate
761
824
44,457
14,435
16,600
22.6
22.6
36.1
41.2
21.1
18.5
6.3
4.8
34.5
29.3
3.4
2.9
Aventis*
Neutral
4,107
-
9,459
2,156
2,455
15.1
16.8
109.7
133.9
37.4
30.7
5.1
4.2
18.4
22.5
4.1
3.4
Cadila Healthcare
Neutral
1,986
-
40,657
10,224
11,840
19.7
20.0
69.8
81.0
28.5
24.5
7.5
6.0
26.8
25.3
4.0
3.4
Cipla
Neutral
741
-
59,470
14,051
16,515
18.9
18.7
25.1
28.9
29.5
25.6
4.7
4.0
17.2
16.9
4.2
3.5
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
4,258
-
72,594
17,903
20,842
22.7
22.8
160.5
189.5
26.5
22.5
5.4
4.5
22.2
21.7
4.0
3.4
Dishman Pharma
Buy
204
285
1,645
1,716
1,888
20.2
20.2
16.3
21.6
12.5
9.4
1.2
1.1
9.7
11.7
1.1
0.9
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
3,695
-
31,294
2,870
3,158
20.0
22.1
59.5
68.3
62.1
54.1
18.3
18.8
28.5
34.3
10.4
9.5
Indoco Remedies
Neutral
354
-
3,259
1,088
1,262
18.2
18.2
13.1
15.5
27.0
22.8
5.3
4.4
21.2
21.1
3.1
2.6
Ipca labs
Neutral
816
-
10,296
3,507
4,078
17.6
18.6
25.8
32.0
31.6
25.5
4.1
3.5
13.8
14.9
3.2
2.7
Lupin
Neutral
1,794
-
80,729
14,864
17,244
26.9
26.9
62.1
71.1
28.9
25.2
7.0
5.6
27.4
24.6
5.2
4.3
Sun Pharma
Accumulate
899
950
216,315
28,163
32,610
25.8
30.7
17.4
26.9
51.7
33.4
4.9
4.2
13.0
16.6
7.2
6.0
Power
Tata Power
Neutral
70
-
18,851
38,302
38,404
14.1
13.1
5.1
6.0
13.6
11.7
1.3
1.2
9.2
10.3
1.4
1.4
NTPC
Buy
129
157
106,738
87,064
98,846
23.5
23.5
11.7
13.2
11.1
9.8
1.2
1.2
11.4
12.1
2.3
2.0
Power Grid
Buy
138
170
72,353
20,702
23,361
86.7
86.4
12.1
13.2
11.5
10.5
1.7
1.5
15.6
15.1
8.4
7.8
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Market Outlook
August 17, 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
395
-
157,877
101,748
109,191
32.1
31.7
12.0
12.5
32.9
31.6
2.3
2.1
6.9
6.7
2.2
2.0
Idea Cellular
Accumulate
161
171
58,047
34,282
36,941
32.0
31.5
5.9
6.2
27.3
26.0
2.5
2.3
9.9
9.3
2.3
2.1
zOthers
Abbott India
Neutral
4,800
-
10,199
2,713
3,141
13.7
13.5
127.8
145.7
37.6
32.9
8.8
7.1
25.9
23.9
3.5
2.9
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
260
341
2,617
4,719
5,287
5.2
5.8
8.6
12.7
30.3
20.5
3.5
3.0
11.4
14.8
0.6
0.5
Finolex Cables
Neutral
253
-
3,871
2,728
3,036
10.8
11.0
14.4
16.8
17.6
15.1
2.7
2.3
15.2
15.3
1.2
1.0
Goodyear India*
Neutral
598
-
1,379
1,536
1,683
9.6
10.0
41.8
48.0
14.3
12.4
2.4
2.1
18.2
18.3
0.7
0.6
Hitachi
Neutral
1,362
-
3,702
1,806
2,112
9.0
9.2
28.6
29.1
47.6
46.8
11.8
9.6
28.1
22.6
2.1
1.8
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
328
-
5,937
1,620
1,847
11.5
11.5
7.3
8.5
45.0
38.7
5.8
5.4
13.3
14.4
3.5
3.0
MRF
Neutral
42,636
-
18,083
20,727
14,841
19.3
18.6
4,905.8
3,351.9
8.7
12.7
2.8
2.3
37.6
19.6
0.8
1.1
Page Industries
Neutral
14,527
-
16,203
1,929
2,450
19.8
20.1
229.9
299.0
63.2
48.6
27.9
19.4
52.1
47.1
8.4
6.6
Relaxo Footwears
Neutral
548
-
6,573
1,767
2,152
12.3
12.5
19.3
25.1
28.5
21.9
7.0
5.4
27.7
27.8
3.8
3.1
Siyaram Silk Mills
Accumulate
1,094
1,221
1,026
1,653
1,873
11.7
12.2
99.3
122.1
11.0
9.0
2.0
1.7
19.5
20.2
0.8
0.7
Styrolution ABS India*
Neutral
803
-
1,411
1,271
1,440
8.6
9.2
32.0
41.1
25.1
19.6
2.6
2.3
10.7
12.4
1.1
0.9
Tree House
Accumulate
394
433
1,669
259
324
56.8
56.8
17.0
21.7
23.2
18.2
2.3
2.1
10.1
11.5
6.4
5.2
TVS Srichakra
Neutral
2,887
-
2,210
2,112
2,389
11.9
12.1
168.5
202.5
17.1
14.3
5.9
4.4
39.6
35.5
1.1
1.0
HSIL
Buy
292
434
2,108
2,085
2,436
18.5
18.6
21.7
28.9
13.5
10.1
1.4
1.2
10.0
12.1
1.1
0.9
Kirloskar Engines India
Accumulate
263
297
3,800
2,634
3,252
10.1
12.0
10.9
17.4
24.1
15.1
2.7
2.4
11.4
16.8
1.1
0.8
Ltd
M M Forgings
Buy
676
797
816
563
671
22.1
22.9
51.0
66.5
13.3
10.2
2.8
2.2
23.1
24.1
1.6
1.3
Banco Products (India)
Neutral
128
-
914
1,208
1,353
11.0
12.3
10.8
14.5
11.9
8.8
1.4
1.2
11.9
14.5
0.7
0.6
Competent Automobiles Neutral
173
-
106
1,007
1,114
3.1
3.1
23.7
28.2
7.3
6.1
1.0
0.9
13.9
14.6
0.1
0.1
Nilkamal
Neutral
1,055
-
1,574
1,948
2,147
10.6
10.3
60.0
67.0
17.6
15.7
2.7
2.4
16.8
16.1
0.9
0.7
Visaka Industries
Neutral
160
-
254
1,158
1,272
8.6
9.5
23.7
32.7
6.8
4.9
0.7
0.6
10.1
12.5
0.4
0.3
Transport Corporation of
Accumulate
272
293
2,058
2,830
3,350
8.8
9.0
14.4
18.3
18.9
14.9
2.9
2.5
15.4
17.1
0.9
0.7
India
Elecon Engineering
Accumulate
80
87
876
1,452
1,596
13.7
14.7
4.2
6.2
19.4
12.9
1.5
1.4
8.1
11.2
0.9
0.8
Surya Roshni
Buy
136
193
597
2,992
3,223
8.4
8.7
15.2
19.3
9.0
7.1
0.9
0.8
10.1
11.5
0.5
0.5
MT Educare
Accumulate
126
141
501
275
355
18.3
17.3
7.4
8.8
17.0
14.3
3.4
3.0
20.2
21.1
1.7
1.3
Radico Khaitan
Buy
95
112
1,268
1,565
1,687
11.9
12.4
5.4
6.6
17.6
14.5
1.4
1.3
8.0
9.0
1.3
1.3
Garware Wall Ropes
Buy
298
390
652
875
983
10.4
10.6
23.1
27.8
12.9
10.7
1.8
1.6
14.1
14.8
0.8
0.7
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on August 14, 2015
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
August 17, 2015
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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