Market Outlook
December 16, 2015
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are expected to open positively tracking the SGX Nifty and its Asian
BSE Sensex
0.7
170
25,320
peers.
Nifty
0.7
51
7,701
U.S. markets rose for the second consecutive day as a surge in the oil prices led to
Mid Cap
0.6
60
10,706
gains in the energy stocks.
Small Cap
0.7
78
11,336
European shares rose with the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 gaining about 3%. The
Bankex
0.2
40
18,690
indices broke a five session losing streak helped by rally in the oil and gas shares
due to rebound in the oil prices.
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian shares closed in the green for the second consecutive day. The market took
Dow Jones
0.9
156
17,525
positive cues from the European indices which surged on account of rebound in the
Nasdaq
0.9
43
4,995
crude oil prices.
FTSE
2.5
144
6,018
News & Result Analysis
Nikkei
(1.7)
(318)
18,566
SC proposes ban on diesel vehicles above 2,000 cc in Delhi; increases
Hang Seng
(0.2)
(35)
21,274
environment compensation charge on commercial vehicles
Shanghai Com
(0.3)
(10)
3,510
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Advances
1,601
871
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Declines
1,057
663
Refer P4 onwards
Unchanged
202
70
Top Picks
CMP
Target
Upside
Volumes (` Cr)
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
BSE
2,425
Axis Bank
Financials
Buy
435
630
44.6
NSE
13,852
HCL Tech
IT
Buy
845
1,132
34.1
ICICI Bank
Financials
Buy
246
354
43.7
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Ashok Leyland
Automobiles
Buy
87
111
27.1
Larsen & Toubro
Construction
Buy
1,283
1,646
28.3
FII
304
(3,265)
112,235
More Top Picks on Pg3
MFs
59
1,415
89,807
Key Upcoming Events
Previous
Consensus
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Date
Region
Event Description
Reading
Expectations
Pmcfin
1
9.5
Dec 16
US
Housing starts
1,060k
1,140k
Abb
1,188
7.0
Dec 16
Germany
PMI Services
55.6
55.5
Eidparry
185
6.9
Dec 16
Euro
CPI
0.1%
0.1%
Sreinfra
44
6.0
Dec 17
US
FOMC rate decision
0.25%
0.5%
Jetairways
599
5.2
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Kailash
2
(4.7)
Techm
520
(4.2)
Gati
166
(3.7)
Sadbhav
334
(3.6)
Gvkpil
8
(3.4)
As on December 15, 2015
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Market Outlook
December 16, 2015
SC proposes ban on diesel vehicles above 2,000 cc in Delhi;
increases environment compensation charge on commercial
vehicles
In a bid to curb the pollution menace engulfing the national capital, Supreme
Court has proposed to double the ‘Environment Compensation Charge’ (ECC) that
was proposed earlier in October. The new compensation charge is `1,400 and
`2,600, from the earlier `700 for light duty vehicles and two-axle vehicles and
`1,300 for three-axle and above. The apex court has made significant observation
regarding the diesel vehicles, and if imposed, will result in a partial diesel vehicle
ban in the city. SC has proposed to disallow registration of diesel vehicles with
engine capacity of greater than 2000cc.
Earlier, National Green Tribunal (NGT) came out with an order saying that diesel
passenger vehicles will not be registered in Delhi. Also, there will be no renewal of
registrations for diesel vehicles more than 10 years old.
We believe that the above proposals, if implemented, would have a negative
impact on M&M as its entire utility vehicle portfolio is above 2,000 cc engine and it
would be the hardest hit by the above implementations. Maruti Suzuki is unlikely to
be materially impacted as it has a portfolio of petrol and CNG cars which the
customer can opt for in the event of the diesel ban. Further, commercial vehicle
players also will not have impact of the above proposals as the increase in the
environment compensation charge is usually a pass thru to the consumer.
However, we would require more clarity on the implementation aspect of the
above proposals before we make any changes to our recommendation.
Economic and Political News
Govt eyes `10,000 cr from Swachh Bharat Cess a year
GST draft model law to be finalised in a month
Petrol prices cut by 50 paise, diesel by 46 paise
Goa govt gives green signal to Panaji Smart City proposal
Corporate News
Natco gets DCGI nod to launch hepatitis C drug in India
LIC HFL to acquire 19% stake in LIC Nomura Mutual Fund AMC
Elgi Equipments to restructure Chinese operations
HDPEL plans JV to counter disinvestment
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
December 16, 2015
Top Picks ★★★★★
Large Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
To outpace battery industry growth due to better technological
Amara Raja Batteries
14,544
851
1,040
22.1
products leading to market share gains in both the automotive
OEM and replacement segments.
Earnings to grow strongly given the MHCV cyclical upturn.
Ashok Leyland
24,859
87
111
27.1
Focus on exports and LCV's provides additional growth
avenue.
Healthy pace of branch expansion, backed by distribution
Axis Bank
103,549
435
630
44.6
network, will be the driving force for the bank’s retail business
and overall earnings.
The stock is trading at attractive valuations and is factoring all
HCL Tech
118,994
845
1,132
34.1
the bad news.
Strong visibility for a robust 20% earnings trajectory, coupled
HDFC Bank
266,718
1,057
1,262
19.4
with high quality of earnings on account of high quality retail
business and strategic focus on highly rated corporates.
Due to its robust franchise and capital adequacy position, the
bank is well positioned to grow by at least a few percentage
ICICI Bank
143,177
246
354
43.7
points higher than the average industry growth rate from a
structural point of view.
Back on the growth trend, expect a long term growth of 14%
Infosys
247,358
1,077
1,306
21.3
to be a US$20bn in FY2020.
Well positioned to benefit from such expected gradual
recovery in the overall domestic capex cycle, given its presence
Larsen & Toubro
119,475
1,283
1,646
28.3
across various infrastructure segments, its execution
capabilities, and its strong balance sheet.
LICHF continues to grow its retail loan book at a healthy pace
with improvement in asset quality. We expect the company to
LIC Housing Finance
23,762
471
571
21.3
post a healthy loan book which is likely to reflect in a strong
earnings growth.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Mid Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favourable outlook for the AC industry to augur well for
Cooling products business which is out pacing the market
Blue Star
3,351
373
429
15.1
growth. EMPPAC division's profitability to improve once
operating environment turns around.
Change in business focus towards high-margin chronic &
Ipca labs
9,496
753
900
19.6
lifestyle segments and increasing penetration in Europe and
US
Economic recovery to have favourable impact on advertising &
circulation revenue growth. Further, the acquisition of a radio
Jagran Prakashan
5,126
157
169
7.8
business (Radio City) would also boost the company's revenue
growth.
Strong brand & quality teaching with innovative technologies &
MT Educare
548
138
169
22.7
higher government educational spending to boost growth
Earnings boost on back of stable material prices and
Radico Khaitan
1,434
108
156
44.7
favourable pricing environment. Valuation discount to peers
provides additional comfort
Strong brands and distribution network would boost growth
Siyaram Silk Mills
1,031
1,100
1,354
23.1
going ahead. Stock currently trades at an inexpensive
valuation.
Structural shift in the Lighting industry towards LED lighting will
Surya Roshni
584
133
183
37.2
drive growth.
Source: Company, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
December 16, 2015
Key Upcoming Events
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
Dec 16, 2015
7:00PM
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Nov
1,060.00
1,135.00
7:00PM
US
Building permits
Thousands
Nov
1,161.00
1,150.00
2:00PM
Germany
PMI Services
Value
Dec P
55.60
55.50
2:00PM
Germany
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Dec P
52.90
52.80
3:00PM
UK
Jobless claims change
% Change
Nov
3.30
0.75
3:30PM
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
%
Nov F
0.10
0.10
7:45PM
US
Industrial Production
%
Nov
(0.15)
(0.10)
Dec 17, 2015
7:00PM
US
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Dec 12
282.00
274.00
12:30AM
US
FOMC rate decision
%
Dec 16
0.25
0.50
Dec 21, 2015
8:30PM
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value
Dec A
(5.90)
--
Dec 22, 2015
8:30PM
US
Existing home sales
Million
Nov
5.36
5.35
7:00PM
US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
3Q T
2.10
1.90
Dec 23, 2015
8:30PM
US
New home sales
Thousands
Nov
495.00
505.00
3:00PM
UK
GDP (YoY)
% Change
3Q F
2.30
--
Dec 29, 2015
8:30PM
US
Consumer Confidence
S.A./ 1985=100
Dec
90.40
--
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
December 16, 2015
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
9.0
8.4
7.0
6.3
8.0
7.5
7.5
7.4
6.0
5.2
7.0
7.0
4.8
6.7
6.7
6.6
5.0
7.0
6.4
4.2
4.1
3.6
3.6
4.0
6.0
2.8
3.0
5.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
4.7
5.0
2.0
4.0
1.0
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
6.0
5.4
5.3
5.4
54.0
5.2
5.0
5.0
4.9
5.0
4.3
4.4
52.0
3.7
3.7
4.0
3.3
50.0
3.0
2.0
48.0
1.0
46.0
-
44.0
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
30.0
9.00
20.0
8.00
10.0
7.00
0.0
6.00
(10.0)
5.00
(20.0)
4.00
(30.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
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Market Outlook
December 16, 2015
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
6.9
6.0
5.3
4.7
4.7
4.0
2.9
2.3
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.0
1.2
1.0
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(4.1)
(4.5)
(6.0)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2015 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
7.3
8.0
6.8
6.0
4.7
4.7
4.0
2.5
2.5
2.6
1.4
1.5
2.0
1.2
0.6
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(3.0)
(3.8)
(6.0)
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
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Market Outlook
December 16, 2015
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
44,872
(3.5)
(4.6)
Russia
Micex
1,742
0.8
22.3
India
Nifty
7,701
(1.4)
(4.6)
China
Shanghai Composite
3,522
(2.6)
16.6
South Africa
Top 40
43,702
(5.7)
4.7
Mexico
Mexbol
42,905
(1.6)
6.7
Indonesia
LQ45
763
0.8
(11.5)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,631
(1.5)
(2.6)
Thailand
SET 50
833
(6.7)
(14.2)
USA
Dow Jones
17,525
0.2
2.7
UK
FTSE
6,018
(2.1)
(5.0)
Japan
Nikkei
18,941
(2.3)
13.0
Germany
DAX
10,450
(2.4)
12.0
France
CAC
4,614
(4.0)
12.7
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
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Stock Watch
December 16, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis
Neutral
165
-
3,206
2,075
2,394
14.4
14.4
9.5
11.0
17.4
15.0
3.5
3.0
21.1
21.3
1.6
1.4
United Phosphorus
Buy
419
510
17,961
13,698
15,752
17.6
17.6
32.1
38.5
13.1
10.9
2.6
2.1
21.4
21.3
1.4
1.2
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Ashok Leyland
Buy
87
111
24,859
17,995
21,544
11.4
11.6
3.4
4.7
25.7
18.6
4.5
4.1
17.7
22.2
1.3
1.1
Bajaj Auto
Accumulate
2,435
2,728
70,474
23,695
27,298
21.3
20.4
134.6
151.5
18.1
16.1
5.8
4.9
31.8
30.6
2.5
2.2
Bharat Forge
Accumulate
823
943
19,153
7,867
8,881
20.0
20.3
34.4
41.0
23.9
20.1
4.6
3.8
21.1
20.9
2.6
2.2
Eicher Motors
Buy
15,862
19,036
43,072
15,379
16,498
15.6
16.6
473.2
574.8
33.5
27.6
12.4
9.2
36.7
33.2
2.7
2.5
Hero Motocorp
Accumulate
2,564
2,774
51,197
28,561
31,559
14.7
14.7
151.1
163.2
17.0
15.7
6.6
5.6
38.7
35.6
1.6
1.4
Jamna Auto Industries Neutral
125
-
1,000
1,292
1,486
9.3
9.8
6.0
7.5
20.9
16.7
4.3
3.7
20.7
21.8
0.8
0.7
L G Balakrishnan & Bros Neutral
515
-
808
1,254
1,394
11.6
11.8
35.9
41.7
14.4
12.4
1.9
1.7
13.5
13.8
0.7
0.7
Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate
1,289
1,449
80,062
39,031
44,440
13.8
13.9
57.9
67.6
22.3
19.1
3.6
3.2
16.1
16.6
1.7
1.4
Maruti
Neutral
4,621
-
139,579
57,865
68,104
16.4
16.7
176.3
225.5
26.2
20.5
5.1
4.3
19.4
21.2
2.2
1.8
Minda Industries
Neutral
888
-
1,408
2,567
2,965
8.0
8.3
46.1
57.8
19.3
15.4
3.2
2.7
16.7
17.3
0.7
0.5
Motherson Sumi
Accumulate
279
313
36,937
39,343
45,100
8.8
9.1
10.1
12.5
27.7
22.3
8.8
6.9
35.3
34.4
1.0
0.9
Rane Brake Lining
Accumulate
328
366
260
454
511
11.1
11.4
23.8
28.1
13.8
11.7
2.0
1.8
14.2
15.3
0.7
0.6
Setco Automotive
Neutral
224
-
598
594
741
12.7
13.7
8.4
15.8
26.6
14.2
2.8
2.4
10.4
16.9
1.5
1.2
Tata Motors
Accumulate
379
402
109,512
255,254
301,772
12.9
13.4
23.7
37.3
16.0
10.2
1.9
1.6
7.4
12.1
0.6
0.5
TVS Motor
Buy
285
338
13,542
11,569
13,648
7.3
8.7
10.3
16.1
27.7
17.7
6.9
5.4
24.8
30.5
1.2
1.0
Amara Raja Batteries
Buy
851
1,040
14,544
4,892
5,871
17.4
17.6
28.8
37.1
29.6
23.0
6.9
5.5
23.4
24.1
2.9
2.4
Exide Industries
Accumulate
143
162
12,181
6,950
7,784
14.4
14.8
6.6
7.3
21.7
19.6
2.7
2.5
12.6
12.8
1.5
1.3
Apollo Tyres
Accumulate
149
171
7,602
12,146
12,689
16.8
16.0
21.2
19.0
7.0
7.9
1.2
1.0
16.5
13.0
0.7
0.7
Ceat
Accumulate
1,018
1,119
4,118
6,041
6,597
14.1
13.7
99.5
111.9
10.2
9.1
2.0
1.7
19.6
18.5
0.8
0.7
JK Tyres
Neutral
109
-
2,469
7,446
7,669
15.2
14.0
19.6
18.4
5.6
5.9
1.4
1.2
25.2
19.5
0.7
0.6
Swaraj Engines
Neutral
920
-
1,143
552
630
14.2
14.7
44.6
54.1
20.6
17.0
4.8
4.4
23.2
25.6
1.9
1.6
Subros
Neutral
95
-
567
1,268
1,488
11.6
11.9
3.7
6.6
25.5
14.3
1.7
1.6
6.8
11.4
0.8
0.6
Indag Rubber
Neutral
207
-
542
283
329
17.0
17.2
13.0
15.4
16.0
13.4
3.5
2.9
21.8
21.6
1.6
1.4
Capital Goods
ACE
Neutral
43
-
429
660
839
4.7
8.2
1.0
3.9
43.4
11.1
1.4
1.2
3.2
11.3
0.8
0.6
BEML
Neutral
1,090
-
4,541
3,277
4,006
6.0
8.9
29.2
64.3
37.3
17.0
2.1
1.9
5.7
11.7
1.5
1.2
BGR Energy
Neutral
115
-
831
3,615
3,181
9.5
9.4
16.7
12.4
6.9
9.3
0.7
0.6
10.0
7.0
0.6
0.8
BHEL
Neutral
166
-
40,655
33,722
35,272
10.8
11.7
10.5
14.2
15.8
11.7
1.2
1.1
7.0
9.0
1.3
1.2
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Stock Watch
December 16, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Capital Goods
Blue Star
Buy
373
429
3,351
3,548
3,977
6.3
6.9
13.7
17.2
27.2
21.7
6.8
4.5
26.1
25.4
1.0
0.9
Crompton Greaves
Accumulate
187
204
11,711
13,484
14,687
4.9
6.2
4.5
7.1
41.5
26.3
2.9
2.7
7.2
10.8
1.0
0.9
Inox Wind
Buy
349
505
7,734
4,980
5,943
17.0
17.5
26.6
31.6
13.1
11.0
3.9
2.9
35.0
30.0
1.7
1.4
KEC International
Neutral
151
-
3,887
8,791
9,716
6.1
6.8
5.4
8.2
28.0
18.4
2.8
2.6
10.0
14.0
0.7
0.6
Thermax
Neutral
895
-
10,662
6,413
7,525
7.4
8.5
30.5
39.3
29.3
22.8
4.5
3.9
15.0
17.0
1.6
1.3
Cement
ACC
Buy
1,336
1,630
25,080
13,151
14,757
16.4
18.3
63.9
83.4
20.9
16.0
2.7
2.5
13.3
16.1
1.7
1.5
Ambuja Cements
Buy
193
233
29,990
11,564
12,556
19.4
20.7
8.9
10.1
21.7
19.1
2.7
2.6
12.8
13.8
2.2
2.0
HeidelbergCement
Neutral
75
-
1,693
1,772
1,926
13.3
15.4
1.0
3.0
74.7
24.9
1.9
1.8
2.6
7.9
1.5
1.3
India Cements
Buy
85
112
2,617
4,216
4,840
18.0
19.5
4.0
9.9
21.3
8.6
0.9
0.8
4.0
9.5
1.0
0.8
JK Cement
Accumulate
656
744
4,585
3,661
4,742
10.1
15.8
18.0
61.0
36.4
10.8
2.6
2.3
7.5
22.9
1.7
1.3
J K Lakshmi Cement
Buy
335
430
3,947
2,947
3,616
16.7
19.9
11.5
27.2
29.2
12.3
2.8
2.4
9.8
20.8
1.8
1.4
Mangalam Cements
Neutral
216
-
576
1,053
1,347
10.5
13.3
8.4
26.0
25.7
8.3
1.1
1.0
4.3
12.5
0.9
0.7
Orient Cement
Accumulate
164
183
3,354
1,854
2,524
21.2
22.2
7.7
11.1
21.3
14.8
3.1
2.6
13.3
15.7
2.5
1.8
Ramco Cements
Neutral
369
-
8,784
4,036
4,545
20.8
21.3
15.1
18.8
24.4
19.6
3.0
2.7
12.9
14.3
2.7
2.3
Shree Cement^
Neutral
10,772
-
37,527
7,150
8,742
26.7
28.6
228.0
345.5
47.2
31.2
7.0
5.8
15.7
20.3
5.0
4.0
UltraTech Cement
Accumulate
2,858
3,282
78,426
25,021
30,023
19.1
21.6
89.0
132.0
32.1
21.7
3.7
3.2
12.2
15.9
3.2
2.7
Construction
ITNL
Neutral
81
-
2,674
7,360
8,825
34.0
35.9
7.0
9.0
11.6
9.0
0.4
0.4
3.2
3.7
3.7
3.6
KNR Constructions
Buy
571
673
1,606
937
1,470
14.3
14.0
33.5
38.6
17.0
14.8
2.6
2.2
15.4
15.4
1.8
1.2
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,283
1,646
119,475
65,065
77,009
11.5
11.7
61.5
65.6
20.9
19.6
2.1
1.9
13.4
14.0
2.0
1.7
Gujarat Pipavav Port
Neutral
150
-
7,271
629
684
51.0
52.2
6.4
5.9
23.5
25.5
3.1
2.8
15.9
12.7
11.2
10.1
MBL Infrastructures
Buy
208
285
862
2,313
2,797
12.2
14.6
19.0
20.0
11.0
10.4
1.1
1.1
11.3
10.6
1.1
1.0
Nagarjuna Const.
Neutral
73
-
4,050
7,892
8,842
8.8
9.1
3.0
5.3
24.3
13.8
1.2
1.1
5.0
8.5
0.8
0.6
PNC Infratech
Accumulate
530
558
2,719
1,873
2,288
13.2
13.5
24.0
32.0
22.1
16.6
2.2
1.9
12.1
12.3
1.6
1.3
Simplex Infra
Neutral
316
-
1,563
5,955
6,829
10.3
10.5
16.0
31.0
19.7
10.2
1.0
1.0
5.3
9.9
0.8
0.7
Power Mech Projects
Neutral
615
-
905
1,539
1,801
12.8
12.7
59.0
72.1
10.4
8.5
1.6
1.3
18.6
16.8
0.6
0.5
Sadbhav Engineering
Neutral
333
-
5,709
3,481
4,219
10.7
10.8
8.0
12.0
41.6
27.7
3.9
3.4
10.3
13.5
1.9
1.6
NBCC
Accumulate
994
1,089
11,923
7,382
9,506
7.7
8.6
39.8
54.4
25.0
18.3
6.0
4.8
26.7
29.1
1.4
1.0
SIPL
Neutral
97
-
3,431
675
1,042
62.4
64.7
-
-
3.7
4.2
-
-
16.7
11.3
Financials
Allahabad Bank
Neutral
68
-
4,060
8,569
9,392
2.8
2.9
16.3
27.5
4.2
2.5
0.4
0.3
7.6
11.9
-
-
www.angelbroking.com
Stock Watch
December 16, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Financials
Axis Bank
Buy
435
630
103,549
26,473
31,527
3.5
3.6
35.7
43.5
12.2
10.0
2.4
2.0
17.9
18.9
-
-
Bank of Baroda
Neutral
158
-
36,452
18,485
21,025
1.9
2.0
13.5
21.1
11.8
7.5
0.9
0.8
7.3
10.6
-
-
Bank of India
Neutral
116
-
9,170
15,972
17,271
1.9
2.0
15.3
33.4
7.6
3.5
0.3
0.3
3.6
7.6
-
-
Canara Bank
Neutral
240
-
13,021
15,441
16,945
2.0
2.1
46.6
70.4
5.2
3.4
0.5
0.4
8.0
11.2
-
-
Dena Bank
Neutral
41
-
2,658
3,440
3,840
2.1
2.3
7.3
10.0
5.7
4.1
0.4
0.4
6.1
7.9
-
-
Federal Bank
Neutral
54
-
9,205
3,477
3,999
3.0
3.0
5.0
6.2
10.7
8.6
1.1
1.0
10.6
11.9
-
-
HDFC
Neutral
1,207
-
190,481
10,358
11,852
3.3
3.3
41.1
47.0
29.4
25.7
5.6
5.1
24.7
24.9
-
-
HDFC Bank
Buy
1,057
1,262
266,718
38,309
47,302
4.3
4.3
49.3
61.1
21.4
17.3
3.7
3.2
18.5
19.7
-
-
ICICI Bank
Buy
246
354
143,177
34,279
39,262
3.3
3.3
21.0
24.4
11.7
10.1
2.0
1.7
14.4
14.7
-
-
IDBI Bank
Neutral
82
-
13,201
9,625
10,455
1.8
1.8
8.5
14.2
9.7
5.8
0.6
0.5
5.9
9.3
-
-
Indian Bank
Neutral
114
-
5,490
6,160
6,858
2.5
2.5
24.5
29.8
4.7
3.8
0.4
0.3
7.7
8.6
-
-
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
471
571
23,762
3,101
3,745
2.5
2.5
33.0
40.2
14.3
11.7
2.7
2.3
19.7
20.5
-
-
Oriental Bank
Neutral
133
-
3,992
7,643
8,373
2.4
2.4
37.2
45.4
3.6
2.9
0.3
0.3
8.2
9.4
-
-
Punjab Natl.Bank
Neutral
122
-
23,946
23,638
26,557
2.8
2.8
17.9
27.2
6.8
4.5
0.7
0.6
8.5
12.0
-
-
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
19
-
2,599
1,965
2,185
2.5
2.5
2.5
3.3
7.7
5.8
0.8
0.7
9.5
11.7
-
-
St Bk of India
Buy
226
283
175,516
82,520
93,299
2.7
2.8
20.0
24.5
11.3
9.2
1.2
1.1
11.5
12.8
-
-
Union Bank
Neutral
145
-
9,978
12,646
14,129
2.3
2.4
31.0
39.1
4.7
3.7
0.5
0.4
9.8
11.4
-
-
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
34
-
2,921
3,536
3,827
1.9
1.9
5.5
6.7
6.2
5.1
0.5
0.5
7.8
8.8
-
-
Yes Bank
Buy
691
921
28,949
7,190
9,011
3.2
3.3
58.2
69.7
11.9
9.9
2.1
1.8
19.2
19.6
-
-
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
876
-
84,055
16,553
19,160
16.0
16.2
17.7
21.5
49.6
40.8
13.2
11.8
29.4
31.2
4.9
4.2
Britannia
Neutral
2,872
-
34,458
8,065
9,395
9.6
10.2
47.2
65.5
60.8
43.9
20.2
19.1
38.3
41.2
4.1
3.5
Colgate
Neutral
1,001
-
27,226
4,836
5,490
19.5
19.7
48.5
53.2
20.6
18.8
15.1
13.2
99.8
97.5
5.5
4.9
Dabur India
Neutral
272
-
47,928
9,370
10,265
17.1
17.2
7.3
8.1
37.1
33.6
11.2
9.1
33.7
30.6
5.0
4.6
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
6,453
-
27,137
4,919
5,742
17.2
17.4
168.3
191.2
38.4
33.8
10.9
9.3
28.8
28.9
5.1
4.3
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
1,313
-
44,719
10,168
12,886
16.1
16.1
32.1
38.4
40.9
34.2
8.3
7.7
19.7
21.0
4.5
3.5
HUL
Neutral
856
-
185,292
34,940
38,957
17.5
17.7
20.8
24.7
41.2
34.7
45.8
36.6
110.5
114.2
5.1
4.6
ITC
Buy
323
382
259,127
41,068
45,068
37.8
37.4
13.9
15.9
23.2
20.3
7.8
6.8
34.1
33.8
5.9
5.4
Marico
Neutral
433
-
27,919
6,551
7,766
15.7
16.0
10.4
12.5
41.7
34.6
12.1
10.1
33.2
32.4
4.2
3.5
Nestle*
Accumulate
5,830
6,646
56,213
11,291
12,847
22.2
22.3
158.9
184.6
36.7
31.6
19.2
17.3
55.0
57.3
4.8
4.2
www.angelbroking.com
Stock Watch
December 16, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FMCG
Tata Global
Accumulate
134
144
8,457
8,635
9,072
9.8
9.9
6.5
7.6
20.6
17.6
2.1
2.0
6.8
7.4
0.9
0.9
IT
HCL Tech^
Buy
845
1,132
118,994
42,038
47,503
23.2
23.5
55.8
62.9
15.1
13.4
3.5
2.7
23.0
19.8
2.4
1.9
Infosys
Buy
1,077
1,306
247,358
60,250
66,999
28.0
28.0
58.3
63.7
18.5
16.9
3.9
3.3
20.9
19.7
3.4
2.9
TCS
Buy
2,375
3,165
468,016
111,274
126,852
28.4
28.7
125.4
143.9
18.9
16.5
7.5
6.9
39.9
42.2
3.8
3.3
Tech Mahindra
Buy
520
646
50,269
25,566
28,890
16.0
17.0
26.3
31.9
19.8
16.3
3.6
3.0
17.9
18.6
1.7
1.5
Wipro
Buy
559
719
137,989
52,414
58,704
23.7
23.8
38.4
42.3
14.6
13.2
2.8
2.5
19.5
18.0
2.2
1.8
Media
D B Corp
Accumulate
323
356
5,925
2,241
2,495
27.8
27.9
21.8
25.6
14.8
12.6
3.9
3.4
26.7
28.5
2.6
2.3
HT Media
Neutral
79
-
1,848
2,495
2,603
11.2
11.2
7.3
8.6
10.9
9.2
0.9
0.8
7.4
8.1
0.2
0.2
Jagran Prakashan
Accumulate
157
169
5,126
2,170
2,355
27.2
26.2
8.9
9.9
17.6
15.8
3.7
3.2
20.9
20.5
2.3
2.1
Sun TV Network
Neutral
384
-
15,113
2,779
3,196
70.2
70.5
22.8
27.3
16.8
14.1
4.2
3.8
26.7
28.3
5.2
4.5
Hindustan Media
Neutral
282
-
2,070
920
1,031
20.0
20.0
19.2
20.9
14.7
13.5
2.4
2.1
16.4
15.3
1.8
1.6
Ventures
Metals & Mining
Coal India
Buy
314
380
198,397
76,167
84,130
19.9
22.3
22.4
25.8
14.0
12.2
5.1
4.9
35.5
41.0
1.9
1.7
Hind. Zinc
Buy
146
175
61,521
14,641
14,026
50.4
50.4
17.7
16.0
8.3
9.1
1.3
1.2
16.2
13.2
1.8
1.7
Hindalco
Neutral
79
-
16,272
104,356
111,186
8.7
9.5
6.7
11.1
11.7
7.1
0.4
0.4
3.5
5.9
0.7
0.6
JSW Steel
Neutral
1,014
-
24,511
42,308
45,147
16.4
20.7
(10.3)
49.5
20.5
1.1
1.1
(1.0)
5.6
1.6
1.5
NMDC
Neutral
89
-
35,088
8,237
10,893
46.6
44.5
10.0
11.7
8.9
7.6
1.0
0.9
12.5
13.0
4.1
3.1
SAIL
Neutral
45
-
18,689
45,915
53,954
7.2
10.5
1.5
4.4
30.0
10.3
0.4
0.4
2.3
4.1
1.1
0.9
Vedanta
Neutral
84
-
24,844
71,445
81,910
26.2
26.3
12.9
19.2
6.5
4.4
0.5
0.4
7.2
8.9
0.8
0.6
Tata Steel
Neutral
244
-
23,717
126,760
137,307
8.9
11.3
6.4
23.1
38.4
10.6
0.8
0.7
2.0
7.1
0.8
0.7
Oil & Gas
Cairn India
Neutral
127
-
23,755
11,323
12,490
49.4
51.0
20.7
20.7
6.1
6.1
0.4
0.4
6.4
6.1
1.2
0.5
GAIL
Neutral
340
-
43,065
64,856
70,933
9.1
9.6
24.0
28.9
14.2
11.8
1.2
1.1
8.8
9.6
0.9
0.8
ONGC
Neutral
218
-
186,381
154,564
167,321
36.8
37.4
28.6
32.5
7.6
6.7
1.0
0.9
12.7
13.5
1.4
1.3
Petronet LNG
Neutral
239
-
17,933
29,691
31,188
5.8
6.2
12.8
13.4
18.7
17.8
2.8
2.5
15.8
14.8
0.7
0.6
Indian Oil Corp
Accumulate
418
455
101,549
359,607
402,760
5.9
6.1
42.5
48.7
9.9
8.6
1.3
1.2
14.1
14.4
0.4
0.3
Reliance Industries
Accumulate
976
1,050
316,115
304,775
344,392
12.6
13.4
91.3
102.6
10.7
9.5
1.2
1.1
11.8
12.0
1.0
0.8
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
675
-
12,727
2,658
3,112
24.1
20.2
24.6
23.9
27.4
28.3
9.8
7.5
42.5
30.2
4.8
4.0
Aurobindo Pharma
Accumulate
823
872
48,031
14,923
17,162
23.0
23.0
38.2
43.6
21.5
18.9
6.6
5.0
36.0
30.2
3.6
3.0
Aventis*
Neutral
4,465
-
10,284
2,082
2,371
17.4
20.8
118.2
151.5
37.8
29.5
5.5
4.4
19.9
25.5
4.6
3.8
Cadila Healthcare
Neutral
396
-
40,515
10,224
11,840
21.0
22.0
14.6
17.6
27.1
22.5
7.4
5.8
30.8
29.0
4.0
3.4
www.angelbroking.com
Stock Watch
December 16, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Pharmaceuticals
Cipla
Neutral
638
-
51,214
14,211
16,611
20.6
19.0
27.0
28.9
23.6
22.1
4.0
3.4
18.4
16.8
3.6
3.0
Dr Reddy's
Buy
2,992
3,933
51,013
16,838
19,575
25.0
23.1
167.5
178.8
17.9
16.7
3.8
3.1
23.1
20.4
3.0
2.5
Dishman Pharma
Neutral
319
-
2,575
1,733
1,906
21.5
21.5
17.0
19.9
18.8
16.0
1.9
1.7
10.5
11.2
2.0
1.7
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
3,319
-
28,112
2,870
3,158
20.0
22.1
59.5
68.3
55.8
48.6
16.5
16.9
28.5
34.3
9.3
8.5
Indoco Remedies
Neutral
315
-
2,903
1,033
1,199
15.9
18.2
9.4
13.6
33.5
23.2
5.0
4.2
15.7
19.7
2.9
2.5
Ipca labs
Buy
753
900
9,496
3,363
3,909
12.9
18.6
13.4
28.0
56.2
26.9
4.0
3.5
7.4
14.0
3.1
2.7
Lupin
Neutral
1,790
-
80,623
13,092
16,561
25.0
27.0
50.4
68.3
35.5
26.2
7.3
5.8
22.8
24.7
5.9
4.5
Sun Pharma
Buy
774
950
186,199
28,163
32,610
25.8
30.7
17.4
26.9
44.5
28.8
4.2
3.7
13.0
16.6
6.1
5.0
Power
Tata Power
Neutral
61
-
16,620
35,923
37,402
22.6
22.8
4.1
5.2
15.2
11.9
1.2
1.1
7.5
9.3
1.4
1.3
NTPC
Buy
131
157
108,345
87,064
98,846
23.5
23.5
11.7
13.2
11.2
10.0
1.3
1.2
11.4
12.1
2.3
2.0
Power Grid
Buy
130
170
67,775
20,702
23,361
86.7
86.4
12.1
13.2
10.7
9.8
1.6
1.4
15.6
15.1
8.2
7.6
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
308
-
123,280
101,748
109,191
32.1
31.7
12.0
12.5
25.7
24.7
1.8
1.7
6.9
6.7
1.8
1.7
Idea Cellular
Neutral
132
-
47,448
34,282
36,941
32.0
31.5
5.9
6.2
22.3
21.3
2.1
1.9
9.9
9.3
2.0
1.9
zOthers
Abbott India
Neutral
5,410
-
11,497
2,715
3,153
14.5
14.1
134.3
152.2
40.3
35.5
10.1
8.3
27.4
25.6
4.0
3.3
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
199
341
2,007
4,719
5,287
5.2
5.8
8.6
12.7
23.2
15.7
2.7
2.3
11.4
14.8
0.4
0.4
Finolex Cables
Neutral
253
-
3,868
2,520
2,883
12.2
12.0
12.7
14.2
20.0
17.8
2.7
2.4
13.6
13.5
1.3
1.1
Goodyear India*
Accumulate
563
622
1,299
1,888
1,680
12.1
11.9
62.2
56.6
9.1
10.0
2.1
1.8
25.9
19.7
0.5
0.5
Hitachi
Neutral
1,357
-
3,689
1,779
2,081
7.8
8.8
21.8
33.4
62.2
40.6
10.0
8.1
17.4
22.1
2.1
1.8
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
302
-
5,464
1,620
1,847
11.5
11.5
7.3
8.5
41.4
35.6
5.4
5.0
13.3
14.4
3.2
2.8
MRF
Buy
38,825
45,575
16,466
20,316
14,488
21.4
21.1
5,488.0
3,798.0
7.1
10.2
2.4
2.0
41.1
21.2
0.8
1.0
Page Industries
Neutral
12,960
-
14,455
1,929
2,450
19.8
20.1
229.9
299.0
56.4
43.4
24.9
17.3
52.1
47.1
7.5
5.9
Relaxo Footwears
Neutral
485
-
5,822
1,767
2,152
12.3
12.5
19.3
25.1
25.2
19.4
6.2
4.8
27.7
27.8
3.4
2.7
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
1,100
1,354
1,031
1,636
1,815
11.5
11.5
89.9
104.1
12.2
10.6
2.0
1.8
17.9
17.8
0.8
0.7
Styrolution ABS India*
Neutral
704
-
1,238
1,271
1,440
8.6
9.2
32.0
41.1
22.0
17.2
2.2
2.0
10.7
12.4
0.9
0.8
TVS Srichakra
Buy
2,713
3,240
2,077
2,101
2,338
15.7
15.0
248.6
270.0
10.9
10.1
4.8
3.4
43.6
34.0
1.0
0.9
HSIL
Neutral
301
-
2,178
2,123
2,384
16.1
16.5
15.0
18.9
20.0
16.0
1.6
1.4
8.0
9.4
1.4
1.2
Kirloskar Engines India
Neutral
242
-
3,500
2,471
2,826
8.8
10.4
9.1
13.3
26.5
18.2
2.5
2.4
9.7
13.4
1.1
0.9
Ltd
M M Forgings
Buy
514
614
620
511
615
21.7
21.6
43.1
55.8
11.9
9.2
2.2
1.8
19.9
21.2
1.4
1.1
Banco Products (India)
Neutral
141
-
1,010
1,208
1,353
11.0
12.3
10.8
14.5
13.1
9.8
1.5
1.3
11.9
14.5
0.8
0.7
www.angelbroking.com
Stock Watch
December 16, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E
zOthers
Competent Automobiles Neutral
141
-
87
1,040
1,137
3.2
3.1
25.7
28.0
5.5
5.0
0.8
0.7
15.0
14.3
0.1
0.1
Nilkamal
Neutral
1,000
-
1,492
1,910
2,083
10.5
10.3
63.3
69.2
15.8
14.5
2.6
2.2
17.6
16.5
0.8
0.7
Visaka Industries
Accumulate
129
144
205
1,086
1,197
9.9
10.3
21.5
28.8
6.0
4.5
0.6
0.5
9.6
11.6
0.4
0.3
Transport Corporation of
Neutral
302
-
2,300
2,830
3,350
8.8
9.0
14.4
18.3
21.0
16.5
3.2
2.8
15.4
17.1
0.9
0.8
India
Elecon Engineering
Neutral
84
-
915
1,369
1,533
13.7
14.9
3.3
6.1
25.3
13.9
1.7
1.5
6.6
11.4
1.0
0.9
Surya Roshni
Buy
133
183
584
2,992
3,223
8.1
8.4
14.7
18.3
9.1
7.3
0.9
0.8
9.7
11.0
0.5
0.4
MT Educare
Buy
138
169
548
286
366
18.3
17.7
7.7
9.4
17.8
14.7
3.8
3.3
20.2
21.1
1.8
1.4
Radico Khaitan
Buy
108
156
1,434
1,565
1,687
12.2
13.0
5.7
7.1
18.9
15.2
1.6
1.5
8.3
9.6
1.4
1.3
Garware Wall Ropes
Accumulate
385
423
842
861
967
10.9
10.9
24.0
28.2
16.0
13.6
2.3
2.0
14.6
14.9
1.0
0.8
Wonderla Holidays
Neutral
368
-
2,081
206
308
44.0
43.6
9.0
12.9
40.9
28.6
5.6
5.1
13.7
17.8
10.0
6.7
Linc Pen & Plastics
Neutral
185
-
273
340
371
8.3
8.9
10.8
13.2
17.1
14.0
2.7
2.4
16.0
17.1
0.8
0.8
The Byke Hospitality
Accumulate
163
181
654
222
287
20.5
20.5
5.6
7.6
28.9
21.6
5.5
4.5
18.9
20.8
3.0
2.3
Interglobe Aviation
Neutral
1,185
-
42,718
17,022
21,122
20.7
14.5
63.9
53.7
18.6
22.1
27.8
22.8
149.9
103.2
2.5
2.0
Coffee Day Enterprises
Neutral
273
-
5,620
2,692
2,964
17.0
18.6
-
4.7
-
57.6
3.3
3.2
0.2
5.5
2.5
2.3
Ltd
Navneet Education
Buy
81
97
1,927
998
1,062
24.1
24.0
5.8
6.1
14.1
13.3
3.1
2.7
22.0
20.6
2.0
1.9
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on December 15, 2015
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Market Outlook
December 16, 2015
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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