Market Outlook
January 11, 2016
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are expected to open on a Negative note tracking the SGX Nifty and
BSE Sensex
0.3
82
24,934
Global markets.
Nifty
0.4
33
7,601
US markets closed about 1 percent lower Friday, ending the year's first trading week
Mid Cap
1.3
143
10,992
with sharp losses as concerns about China and global economic slowdown
Small Cap
1.2
142
11,652
persisted.
Bankex
0.5
85
18,368
European markets finished in negative territory on Friday, in what has been a
turbulent week for markets, as investors focused on China, oil prices and a strong
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
monthly jobs report in the U.S
Dow Jones
(1.0)
(168)
16,346
Indian markets rebounded on Friday, tracking a mostly positive trend in Asia and
Nasdaq
(1.0)
(46)
4,644
Europe after China's efforts to calm investors showed early signs of success.
FTSE
(0.7)
(42)
5,912
News & Result Analysis
Nikkei
(0.4)
(69)
17,698
Tata Motors (JLR) December 2015 retail sales grow strongly 20%
Hang Seng
0.6
120
20,454
Hindustan Zinc to invest Rs 8,000 cr over next 3-5 years
Shanghai Com
2.0
61
3,186
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Advances
1,952
194
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Declines
828
1,409
Refer P4 onwards
Unchanged
187
29
Top Picks
CMP
Target
Upside
Volumes (` Cr)
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
BSE
3,604
Amara Raja Batteries Auto & Auto Ancillary
Buy
844
1,040
23.2
NSE
15,937
HCL Tech
IT
Buy
828
1,132
36.7
Larsen & Toubro
Construction
Buy
1,180
1,646
39.5
LIC Housing Finance Financials
Buy
505
592
17.1
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Navkar Corporation Others
Buy
205
265
29.6
FII
(114)
(653)
19,541
More Top Picks on Pg3
MFs
358
244
69,283
Key Upcoming Events
Previous
Consensus
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Date
Region
Event Description
Reading
Expectations
Balramchin
82
9.6
Jan 11
India
Imports YoY%
(30.3)
-
Gvkpil
9
8.4
India
Exports YoY%
(24.4)
-
Eidparry
202
8.1
Jan 12
India
Industrial Production YoY
9.80
Indiacem
100
7.7
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
1.70
1.80
Cyient
515
6.6
Jan 13
China
Exports YoY%
(6.80)
(8.00)
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Gmdcltd
81
(2.7)
Cipla
622
(2.6)
Lt
1,180
(2.2)
Max
489
(2.2)
Den
104
(2.1)
As on January 8, 2015
Market Outlook
January 11, 2016
Tata Motors (JLR) December 2015 retail sales grow strongly 20%
Tata Motors (JLR) retail sales grew a robust 20% yoy to 49,553 units in the month
of December 2015. Jaguar sales grew 20% yoy to 8,382 units led by strong
demand for recently launched compact vehicle (XE) which reported sales of 3,952
units. XE sales are gaining traction and currently constitute 45% of the Jaguar
volumes. Land Rover volumes also grew strongly 20% yoy to 41,171 units. The
growth was led by Discovery Sport which replaced the Freelander recording
volumes of 10.048 units. Also, robust sales of Defender (grew 25% to 1,999 units)
and Range Rover (grew 9% yoy to 5,853 units) further boosted the sales.
On a regional basis, the developed markets continued to grow strongly with
Europe sales growing by 50% to 11,220 units. UK market volumes grew 32% to
7,637 units while the US market volumes reported 30% growth to 10,618 units.
China continues to drag the overall volumes reporting a decline of 10% to 10,403
units. On a YTD basis (April to December) 2015, JLR sales have grown 7% yoy to
362,758 units. We are positive on the success of new launches at JLR and expect
the company to maintain robust double digit growth. We currently have Buy rating
on the stock.
Hindustan Zinc to invest Rs 8,000 cr over next 3-5 years
Vedanta Group company Hindustan Zinc is planning to invest `8,000cr over the
next 3-5 years to increase its ore and finished metal production.
The current ore production of the company stands at 9.36 million tonne, which the
company plans to take to 14 million tonne and finished metal production to 1.10
million tonne from 0.85 million tonne now.
The company has its mines located in Agucha, Sindesar Khurd, Zawar, Rajpura
Dariba, and Kayad, all in Rajasthan. The smelters are located in Dariba,
Chanderiya and Debari, also in Rajasthan.
The company is also looking to set-up a new fertiliser plant with a capacity to
manufacture 0.5 million tonne of di-ammonium phosphate in Debari in district
Udaipur with an estimated investment of `1,350cr.
Economic and Political News
Reform process will continue despite hurdles: Jaitley
Road ministry to deploy aircraft to monitor highway projects
Govt should give 1-3 yrs of tax holiday under Start-Up plan
Corporate News
MTNL likely to report profit next fiscal: Ravi Shankar Prasad
Bharat Forge to set up auto component hub in Nellore
NBCC order book to touch `40,000cr by fiscal end: CMD
Market Outlook
January 11, 2016
Top Picks ★★★★★
Large Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
To outpace battery industry growth due to better technological
Amara Raja Batteries
14,417
844
1,040
23.2
products leading to market share gains in both the automotive
OEM and replacement segments.
Earnings to grow strongly given the MHCV cyclical upturn.
Ashok Leyland
25,869
91
111
22.1
Focus on exports and LCV's provides additional growth
avenue.
The stock is trading at attractive valuations and is factoring all
HCL Tech
1,16,691
828
1,132
36.7
the bad news.
Strong visibility for a robust 20% earnings trajectory, coupled
HDFC Bank
2,68,114
1,062
1,262
18.9
with high quality of earnings on account of high quality retail
business and strategic focus on highly rated corporates.
Back on the growth trend, expect a long term growth of 14%
Infosys
2,44,085
1,063
1,306
22.9
to be a US$20bn in FY2020.
Well positioned to benefit from such expected gradual
recovery in the overall domestic capex cycle, given its presence
Larsen & Toubro
1,09,869
1,180
1,646
39.5
across various infrastructure segments, its execution
capabilities, and its strong balance sheet.
LICHF continues to grow its retail loan book at a healthy pace
with improvement in asset quality. We expect the company to
LIC Housing Finance
25,498
505
592
17.1
post a healthy loan book which is likely to reflect in a strong
earnings growth.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Mid Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favourable outlook for the AC industry to augur well for
Cooling products business which is out pacing the market
Blue Star
3,350
372
439
17.9
growth. EMPPAC division's profitability to improve once
operating environment turns around.
Change in business focus towards high-margin chronic &
Garware Wall Ropes
875
400
473
18.2
lifestyle segments and increasing penetration in Europe and
US
Economic recovery to have favourable impact on advertising &
circulation revenue growth. Further, the acquisition of a radio
Jagran Prakashan
5,504
168
189
12.3
business (Radio City) would also boost the company's revenue
growth.
Massive capacity expansion along with rail advantage at ICD
Navkar Corporation
2,916
205
265
29.6
as well CFS augurs well for the company
Earnings boost on back of stable material prices and
Radico Khaitan
1,563
118
156
32.8
favourable pricing environment. Valuation discount to peers
provides additional comfort
Strong brands and distribution network would boost growth
Siyaram Silk Mills
1,121
1,196
1,354
13.2
going ahead. Stock currently trades at an inexpensive
valuation.
Structural shift in the Lighting industry towards LED lighting will
Surya Roshni
741
169
201
18.8
drive growth.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
January 11, 2016
Key Upcoming Events
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
Jan 6, 2016
2:25PM
Germany
PMI Services
Value
Dec F
55.40
55.40
Jan 7, 2016
7:00PM
US
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Jan 2
287.00
275.00
3:30PM
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value
Dec F
(5.70)
(5.70)
Jan 8, 2016
7:00PM
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Dec
211.00
200.00
7:00PM
US
Unnemployment rate
%
Dec
5.00
5.00
Jan 9, 2016
7:00AM
China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Dec
1.50
1.60
Jan 11, 2016
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Dec
(30.26)
--
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Dec
(24.43)
--
Jan 12, 2016
5:30PM
India
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Nov
9.80
--
3:00PM
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Nov
1.70
--
Jan 13, 2016
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Dec
(6.80)
(7.80)
Jan 14, 2016
12:00PM
India
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
% Change
Dec
(1.99)
--
5:30PM
UK
BOE Announces rates
% Ratio
Jan 14
0.50
0.50
Jan 15, 2016
7:45PM
US
Industrial Production
%
Dec
(0.56)
(0.10)
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Dec
0.10
--
Jan 19, 2016
3:00PM
UK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Dec
0.10
--
7:30AM
China
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Dec
6.20
--
7:30AM
China
Real GDP (YoY)
% Change
4Q
6.90
--
Jan 20, 2016
7:00PM
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Dec
1,173.00
--
7:00PM
US
Building permits
Thousands
Dec
1,282.00
--
3:00PM
UK
Jobless claims change
% Change
Dec
3.90
--
7:00PM
US
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Dec
--
--
Jan 21, 2016
3:30PM
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
%
Dec F
0.20
--
6:15PM
Euro Zone
ECB announces interest rates
%
Jan 21
0.05
--
Jan 22, 2016
2:00PM
Germany
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jan P
53.20
--
8:30PM
US
Existing home sales
Million
Dec
4.76
--
Jan 26, 2016
8:30PM
US
Consumer Confidence
S.A./ 1985=100
Jan
96.50
--
Jan 27, 2016
8:30PM
US
New home sales
Thousands
Dec
490.00
--
Jan 28, 2016
3:00PM
UK
GDP (YoY)
% Change
4Q A
2.10
--
12:30AM
US
FOMC rate decision
%
Jan 27
0.50
0.50
Jan 29, 2016
7:00PM
US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
4Q A
2.00
--
Feb 1, 2016
3:00PM
UK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jan
51.90
--
6:30AM
China
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jan
49.70
--
Feb 2, 2016
11:00AM
India
RBI Reverse Repo rate
%
Feb 2
5.75
--
11:00AM
India
RBI Repo rate
%
Feb 2
6.75
--
11:00AM
India
RBI Cash Reserve ratio
%
Feb 2
4.00
--
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
January 11, 2016
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
9.0
8.4
12.0
9.8
8.0
7.5
7.5
7.4
10.0
7.0
7.0
6.7
6.7
6.6
7.0
6.4
8.0
6.3
6.0
6.0
4.8
5.0
4.2
4.3
4.7
3.6
3.8
5.0
4.0
2.8
3.0
2.5
2.5
4.0
2.0
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
6.0
5.4
5.3
5.4
5.4
5.2
5.0
5.0
54.0
4.9
5.0
4.3
4.4
3.7
3.7
52.0
4.0
3.0
50.0
2.0
48.0
1.0
46.0
-
44.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
0.0
8.00
7.50
(5.0)
7.00
(10.0)
6.50
(15.0)
6.00
5.50
(20.0)
5.00
(25.0)
4.50
4.00
(30.0)
3.50
(35.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
January 11, 2016
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
6.9
6.0
5.3
4.7
4.7
4.0
2.9
2.1
2.1
1.8
2.0
1.0
1.1
1.6
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(4.1)
(4.5)
(6.0)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2015 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
7.3
8.0
6.8
6.0
4.7
4.7
4.0
2.5
2.5
2.6
1.4
1.5
2.0
1.2
0.6
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(3.0)
(3.8)
(6.0)
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Market Outlook
January 11, 2016
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
40,612
(12.5)
(10.4)
(18.8)
Russia
Micex
1,749
(2.2)
5.8
18.1
India
Nifty
7,601
(1.3)
(6.8)
(9.3)
China
Shanghai Composite
3,186
(8.2)
0.1
0.6
South Africa
Top 40
43,253
(2.5)
(8.3)
(1.0)
Mexico
Mexbol
40,265
(5.6)
(7.6)
(5.0)
Indonesia
LQ45
790
0.6
12.7
(11.3)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,658
(0.6)
0.6
(5.9)
Thailand
SET 50
778
(9.7)
(11.8)
(22.6)
USA
Dow Jones
16,346
(7.8)
(3.3)
(7.8)
UK
FTSE
5,912
(5.2)
(6.7)
(9.1)
Japan
Nikkei
17,698
(9.3)
(0.2)
(0.7)
Germany
DAX
9,849
(8.7)
(0.5)
0.7
France
CAC
4,334
(8.9)
(7.3)
0.2
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Stock Watch
January 11, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis
Neutral
169
-
3,289
2,097
2,415
14.4
14.4
9.5
11.0
17.8
15.4
3.5
3.1
21.1
21.3
1.6
1.4
United Phosphorus
Buy
426
510
18,239
13,698
15,752
17.6
17.6
32.1
38.5
13.3
11.1
2.6
2.2
21.4
21.3
1.4
1.2
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Ashok Leyland
Buy
91
111
25,869
17,995
21,544
11.4
11.6
3.4
4.7
26.7
19.3
4.7
4.3
17.7
22.2
1.4
1.1
Bajaj Auto
Accumulate
2,377
2,728
68,778
23,695
27,298
21.3
20.4
134.6
151.5
17.7
15.7
5.6
4.8
31.8
30.6
2.5
2.1
Bharat Forge
Accumulate
833
943
19,400
7,867
8,881
20.0
20.3
34.4
41.0
24.2
20.3
4.7
3.9
21.1
20.9
2.6
2.2
Eicher Motors
Accumulate
17,241
19,036
46,817
15,379
16,498
15.6
16.6
473.2
574.8
36.4
30.0
13.5
10.0
36.7
33.2
3.0
2.7
Gabriel India
Accumulate
94
101
1,343
1,415
1,544
8.7
9.0
4.6
5.4
20.3
17.3
3.7
3.3
18.1
18.9
0.9
0.8
Hero Motocorp
Accumulate
2,489
2,774
49,702
28,561
31,559
14.7
14.7
151.1
163.2
16.5
15.3
6.4
5.4
38.7
35.6
1.6
1.4
Jamna Auto Industries Neutral
143
-
1,143
1,292
1,486
9.3
9.8
6.0
7.5
23.8
19.1
5.0
4.2
20.7
21.8
1.0
0.8
L G Balakrishnan & Bros Neutral
492
-
773
1,254
1,394
11.6
11.8
35.9
41.7
13.7
11.8
1.9
1.6
13.5
13.8
0.7
0.6
Mahindra and Mahindra Buy
1,197
1,449
74,326
39,031
44,440
13.8
13.9
57.9
67.6
20.7
17.7
3.3
3.0
16.1
16.6
1.6
1.3
Maruti
Neutral
4,216
-
127,346
57,865
68,104
16.4
16.7
176.3
225.5
23.9
18.7
4.6
4.0
19.4
21.2
2.0
1.6
Minda Industries
Neutral
888
-
1,409
2,567
2,965
8.0
8.3
46.1
57.8
19.3
15.4
3.2
2.7
16.7
17.3
0.7
0.5
Motherson Sumi
Buy
271
313
35,899
39,343
45,100
8.8
9.1
10.1
12.5
26.9
21.7
8.5
6.7
35.3
34.4
1.0
0.9
Rane Brake Lining
Accumulate
335
366
265
454
511
11.1
11.4
23.8
28.1
14.1
11.9
2.0
1.8
14.2
15.3
0.7
0.7
Setco Automotive
Neutral
40
-
534
594
741
12.7
13.7
1.7
3.2
23.5
12.5
2.5
2.1
10.4
16.9
1.3
1.1
Tata Motors
Buy
353
409
102,048
266,022
312,667
12.8
13.1
26.3
38.3
13.4
9.2
1.8
1.5
8.4
12.1
0.6
0.5
TVS Motor
Buy
285
338
13,521
11,569
13,648
7.3
8.7
10.3
16.1
27.6
17.7
6.9
5.4
24.8
30.5
1.2
1.0
Amara Raja Batteries
Buy
844
1,040
14,417
4,892
5,871
17.4
17.6
28.8
37.1
29.3
22.8
6.8
5.5
23.4
24.1
2.9
2.4
Exide Industries
Accumulate
142
162
12,070
6,950
7,784
14.4
14.8
6.6
7.3
21.5
19.5
2.7
2.5
12.6
12.8
1.5
1.3
Apollo Tyres
Accumulate
150
171
7,623
12,146
12,689
16.8
16.0
21.2
19.0
7.1
7.9
1.2
1.0
16.5
13.0
0.7
0.7
Ceat
Accumulate
1,004
1,119
4,061
6,041
6,597
14.1
13.7
99.5
111.9
10.1
9.0
2.0
1.7
19.6
18.5
0.8
0.7
JK Tyres
Neutral
106
-
2,402
7,446
7,669
15.2
14.0
19.6
18.4
5.4
5.8
1.4
1.1
25.2
19.5
0.7
0.6
Swaraj Engines
Neutral
953
-
1,184
552
630
14.2
14.7
44.6
54.1
21.4
17.6
5.0
4.5
23.2
25.6
2.0
1.7
Subros
Neutral
99
-
596
1,268
1,488
11.6
11.9
3.7
6.6
26.8
15.1
1.8
1.6
6.8
11.4
0.8
0.6
Indag Rubber
Neutral
207
-
544
283
329
17.0
17.2
13.0
15.4
16.0
13.4
3.5
2.9
21.8
21.6
1.6
1.4
Capital Goods
ACE
Neutral
45
-
444
660
839
4.7
8.2
1.0
3.9
44.9
11.5
1.4
1.3
3.2
11.3
0.8
0.7
BEML
Neutral
1,217
-
5,070
3,277
4,006
6.0
8.9
29.2
64.3
41.7
18.9
2.3
2.1
5.7
11.7
1.6
1.3
Bharat Electronics
Accumulate
1,298
1,414
31,153
7,737
8,634
16.8
17.2
54.0
61.0
24.0
21.3
3.4
3.1
39.3
45.6
3.1
2.7
Stock Watch
January 11, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Capital Goods
Voltas
Buy
297
353
9,829
5,363
5,963
8.0
9.1
11.0
13.8
27.0
21.5
4.1
3.6
16.2
17.9
1.8
1.6
BGR Energy
Neutral
130
-
935
3,615
3,181
9.5
9.4
16.7
12.4
7.8
10.5
0.7
0.7
10.0
7.0
0.7
0.8
BHEL
Neutral
154
-
37,620
33,722
35,272
10.8
11.7
10.5
14.2
14.6
10.8
1.1
1.0
7.0
9.0
1.2
1.1
Blue Star
Buy
372
439
3,350
3,548
3,977
6.3
6.9
13.7
17.2
27.2
21.7
6.8
4.4
26.1
25.4
1.0
0.9
Crompton Greaves
Accumulate
193
204
12,081
13,484
14,687
4.9
6.2
4.5
7.1
42.8
27.2
3.0
2.8
7.2
10.8
1.0
0.9
Inox Wind
Buy
352
458
7,819
4,980
5,943
17.0
17.5
26.6
31.6
13.3
11.2
4.0
2.9
35.0
30.0
1.7
1.4
KEC International
Neutral
142
-
3,657
8,791
9,716
6.1
6.8
5.4
8.2
26.3
17.4
2.6
2.4
10.0
14.0
0.6
0.6
Thermax
Neutral
881
-
10,503
6,413
7,525
7.4
8.5
30.5
39.3
28.9
22.4
4.5
3.9
15.0
17.0
1.6
1.3
Cement
ACC
Buy
1,294
1,630
24,301
13,151
14,757
16.4
18.3
63.9
83.4
20.3
15.5
2.6
2.4
13.3
16.1
1.7
1.4
Ambuja Cements
Buy
198
233
30,665
11,564
12,556
19.4
20.7
8.9
10.1
22.2
19.6
2.8
2.6
12.8
13.8
2.3
2.1
HeidelbergCement
Neutral
75
-
1,694
1,772
1,926
13.3
15.4
1.0
3.0
74.8
24.9
1.9
1.8
2.6
7.9
1.5
1.3
India Cements
Accumulate
100
112
3,067
4,216
4,840
18.0
19.5
4.0
9.9
25.0
10.1
1.0
0.9
4.0
9.5
1.1
0.9
JK Cement
Buy
564
744
3,940
3,661
4,742
10.1
15.8
18.0
61.0
31.3
9.2
2.3
2.0
7.5
22.9
1.6
1.2
J K Lakshmi Cement
Buy
322
430
3,784
2,947
3,616
16.7
19.9
11.5
27.2
28.0
11.8
2.7
2.3
9.8
20.8
1.7
1.3
Mangalam Cements
Neutral
194
-
517
1,053
1,347
10.5
13.3
8.4
26.0
23.1
7.5
1.0
0.9
4.3
12.5
0.9
0.6
Orient Cement
Buy
150
183
3,073
1,854
2,524
21.2
22.2
7.7
11.1
19.5
13.5
2.8
2.4
13.3
15.7
2.4
1.7
Ramco Cements
Neutral
389
-
9,259
4,036
4,545
20.8
21.3
15.1
18.8
25.8
20.7
3.2
2.8
12.9
14.3
2.8
2.4
Shree Cement^
Neutral
11,095
-
38,651
7,150
8,742
26.7
28.6
228.0
345.5
48.7
32.1
7.2
6.0
15.7
20.3
5.2
4.1
UltraTech Cement
Buy
2,703
3,282
74,175
25,021
30,023
19.1
21.6
89.0
132.0
30.4
20.5
3.5
3.1
12.2
15.9
3.0
2.5
Construction
ITNL
Neutral
90
-
2,949
7,360
8,825
34.0
35.9
7.0
9.0
12.8
10.0
0.4
0.4
3.2
3.7
3.8
3.6
KNR Constructions
Buy
554
673
1,557
937
1,470
14.3
14.0
33.5
38.6
16.5
14.4
2.5
2.2
15.4
15.4
1.7
1.1
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,180
1,646
109,869
65,065
77,009
11.5
11.7
61.5
65.6
19.2
18.0
1.9
1.8
13.4
14.0
1.9
1.6
Gujarat Pipavav Port
Neutral
157
-
7,609
629
684
51.0
52.2
6.4
5.9
24.6
26.7
3.2
3.0
15.9
12.7
11.8
10.6
MBL Infrastructures
Buy
215
285
892
2,313
2,797
12.2
14.6
19.0
20.0
11.3
10.8
1.2
1.1
11.3
10.6
1.1
1.0
Nagarjuna Const.
Neutral
74
-
4,133
7,892
8,842
8.8
9.1
3.0
5.3
24.8
14.0
1.2
1.1
5.0
8.5
0.8
0.6
PNC Infratech
Accumulate
530
558
2,719
1,873
2,288
13.2
13.5
24.0
32.0
22.1
16.6
2.2
1.9
12.1
12.3
1.6
1.3
Simplex Infra
Neutral
313
-
1,550
5,955
6,829
10.3
10.5
16.0
31.0
19.6
10.1
1.0
1.0
5.3
9.9
0.8
0.7
Power Mech Projects
Neutral
662
-
974
1,539
1,801
12.8
12.7
59.0
72.1
11.2
9.2
1.7
1.4
18.6
16.8
0.6
0.5
Sadbhav Engineering
Neutral
315
-
5,407
3,481
4,219
10.7
10.8
8.0
12.0
39.4
26.3
3.7
3.2
10.3
13.5
1.8
1.5
Stock Watch
January 11, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Construction
NBCC
Accumulate
997
1,089
11,966
7,382
9,506
7.7
8.6
39.8
54.4
25.1
18.3
6.0
4.8
26.7
29.1
1.4
1.0
MEP Infra
Neutral
45
-
727
1,956
1,876
28.1
30.5
1.3
3.0
34.4
14.9
7.2
4.9
21.2
32.8
1.8
1.8
SIPL
Neutral
93
-
3,286
675
1,042
62.4
64.7
-
-
3.5
4.0
-
-
16.5
11.2
Financials
Allahabad Bank
Neutral
65
-
3,889
8,569
9,392
2.8
2.9
16.3
27.5
4.0
2.4
0.4
0.3
7.6
11.9
-
-
Axis Bank
Buy
414
630
98,451
26,473
31,527
3.5
3.6
35.7
43.5
11.6
9.5
2.2
1.9
17.9
18.9
-
-
Bank of Baroda
Neutral
141
-
32,373
18,485
21,025
1.9
2.0
13.5
21.1
10.4
6.7
0.8
0.7
7.3
10.6
-
-
Bank of India
Neutral
110
-
8,727
15,972
17,271
1.9
2.0
15.3
33.4
7.2
3.3
0.3
0.3
3.6
7.6
-
-
Canara Bank
Neutral
220
-
11,954
15,441
16,945
2.0
2.1
46.6
70.4
4.7
3.1
0.4
0.4
8.0
11.2
-
-
Dena Bank
Neutral
40
-
2,571
3,440
3,840
2.1
2.3
7.3
10.0
5.5
4.0
0.4
0.3
6.1
7.9
-
-
Federal Bank
Neutral
53
-
9,033
3,477
3,999
3.0
3.0
5.0
6.2
10.5
8.4
1.1
1.0
10.6
11.9
-
-
HDFC
Neutral
1,175
-
185,532
10,358
11,852
3.3
3.3
41.1
47.0
28.6
25.0
5.5
5.0
24.7
24.9
-
-
HDFC Bank
Buy
1,062
1,262
268,114
38,309
47,302
4.3
4.3
49.3
61.1
21.5
17.4
3.7
3.2
18.5
19.7
-
-
ICICI Bank
Buy
245
354
142,369
34,279
39,262
3.3
3.3
21.0
24.4
11.7
10.1
2.0
1.7
14.4
14.7
-
-
IDBI Bank
Neutral
78
-
12,527
9,625
10,455
1.8
1.8
8.5
14.2
9.2
5.5
0.6
0.5
5.9
9.3
-
-
Indian Bank
Neutral
108
-
5,163
6,160
6,858
2.5
2.5
24.5
29.8
4.4
3.6
0.4
0.3
7.7
8.6
-
-
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
505
592
25,498
3,101
3,745
2.5
2.5
33.0
40.2
15.3
12.6
2.9
2.4
19.7
20.5
-
-
Oriental Bank
Neutral
128
-
3,829
7,643
8,373
2.4
2.4
37.2
45.4
3.4
2.8
0.3
0.3
8.2
9.4
-
-
Punjab Natl.Bank
Neutral
105
-
20,647
23,638
26,557
2.8
2.8
17.9
27.2
5.9
3.9
0.6
0.5
8.5
12.0
-
-
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
20
-
2,633
1,965
2,185
2.5
2.5
2.5
3.3
7.8
5.9
0.8
0.7
9.5
11.7
-
-
St Bk of India
Buy
209
283
162,203
82,520
93,299
2.7
2.8
20.0
24.5
10.4
8.5
1.1
1.0
11.5
12.8
-
-
Union Bank
Neutral
137
-
9,425
12,646
14,129
2.3
2.4
31.0
39.1
4.4
3.5
0.5
0.4
9.8
11.4
-
-
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
34
-
2,878
3,536
3,827
1.9
1.9
5.5
6.7
6.1
5.0
0.5
0.5
7.8
8.8
-
-
Yes Bank
Buy
694
921
29,090
7,190
9,011
3.2
3.3
58.2
69.7
11.9
10.0
2.1
1.8
19.2
19.6
-
-
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
875
-
83,949
16,553
19,160
16.0
16.2
17.7
21.5
49.5
40.7
13.1
11.8
29.4
31.2
4.9
4.2
Britannia
Neutral
2,898
-
34,763
8,065
9,395
9.6
10.2
47.2
65.5
61.4
44.2
20.4
19.3
38.3
41.2
4.2
3.6
Colgate
Neutral
927
-
25,208
4,836
5,490
19.5
19.7
48.5
53.2
19.1
17.4
14.0
12.2
99.8
97.5
5.1
4.5
Dabur India
Neutral
269
-
47,303
9,370
10,265
17.1
17.2
7.3
8.1
36.7
33.2
11.1
9.0
33.7
30.6
5.0
4.5
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
6,520
-
27,422
4,919
5,742
17.2
17.4
168.3
191.2
38.8
34.1
11.0
9.4
28.8
28.9
5.1
4.4
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
1,250
-
42,550
10,168
12,886
16.1
16.1
32.1
38.4
38.9
32.5
7.9
7.3
19.7
21.0
4.3
3.4
Stock Watch
January 11, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FMCG
HUL
Neutral
812
-
175,663
34,940
38,957
17.5
17.7
20.8
24.7
39.0
32.9
43.4
34.7
110.5
114.2
4.8
4.3
ITC
Buy
313
382
251,830
41,068
45,068
37.8
37.4
13.9
15.9
22.5
19.7
7.5
6.6
34.1
33.8
5.8
5.2
Marico
Neutral
228
-
29,455
6,551
7,766
15.7
16.0
10.4
12.5
22.0
18.3
6.4
5.3
33.2
32.4
4.4
3.7
Nestle*
Buy
5,630
6,646
54,281
11,291
12,847
22.2
22.3
158.9
184.6
35.4
30.5
18.5
16.7
55.0
57.3
4.7
4.1
Tata Global
Neutral
144
-
9,117
8,635
9,072
9.8
9.9
6.5
7.6
22.2
19.0
2.2
2.1
6.8
7.4
1.0
0.9
IT
HCL Tech^
Buy
828
1,132
116,691
42,038
47,503
23.2
23.5
55.8
62.9
14.8
13.2
3.4
2.6
23.0
19.8
2.4
1.9
Infosys
Buy
1,063
1,306
244,085
60,250
66,999
27.0
28.0
56.4
63.7
18.8
16.7
3.8
3.3
20.4
19.8
3.3
2.8
TCS
Buy
2,397
3,165
472,361
111,274
126,852
28.4
28.7
125.4
143.9
19.1
16.7
7.6
7.0
39.9
42.2
3.9
3.3
Tech Mahindra
Buy
522
646
50,498
25,566
28,890
16.0
17.0
26.3
31.9
19.9
16.4
3.6
3.0
17.9
18.6
1.7
1.5
Wipro
Buy
556
719
137,354
50,808
58,713
23.7
23.8
37.3
42.3
14.9
13.1
2.8
2.5
19.0
17.9
2.3
1.8
Media
D B Corp
Accumulate
326
356
5,995
2,241
2,495
27.8
27.9
21.8
25.6
15.0
12.8
3.9
3.5
26.7
28.5
2.6
2.3
HT Media
Neutral
87
-
2,019
2,495
2,603
11.2
11.2
7.3
8.6
11.9
10.1
0.9
0.9
7.4
8.1
0.3
0.3
Jagran Prakashan
Accumulate
168
189
5,504
2,170
2,355
27.2
26.2
8.9
9.9
18.9
17.0
4.0
3.5
20.9
20.5
2.4
2.2
Sun TV Network
Neutral
422
-
16,636
2,779
3,196
70.2
70.5
22.8
27.3
18.5
15.5
4.6
4.1
26.7
28.3
5.7
5.0
Hindustan Media
Neutral
294
-
2,154
920
1,031
20.0
20.0
19.2
20.9
15.3
14.1
2.5
2.2
16.4
15.3
1.9
1.7
Ventures
Metals & Mining
Coal India
Buy
321
380
202,787
76,167
84,130
19.9
22.3
22.4
25.8
14.3
12.4
5.2
5.0
35.5
41.0
2.0
1.8
Hind. Zinc
Buy
140
175
59,281
14,641
14,026
50.4
50.4
17.7
16.0
8.0
8.8
1.2
1.1
16.2
13.2
1.7
1.5
Hindalco
Neutral
77
-
15,880
104,356
111,186
8.7
9.5
6.7
11.1
11.4
7.0
0.4
0.4
3.5
5.9
0.7
0.6
JSW Steel
Neutral
1,040
-
25,140
42,308
45,147
16.4
20.7
(10.3)
49.5
21.0
1.2
1.1
(1.0)
5.6
1.6
1.5
NMDC
Neutral
89
-
35,326
8,237
10,893
46.6
44.5
10.0
11.7
9.0
7.6
1.0
0.9
12.5
13.0
4.1
3.1
SAIL
Neutral
47
-
19,556
45,915
53,954
7.2
10.5
1.5
4.4
31.4
10.8
0.5
0.5
2.3
4.1
1.1
1.0
Vedanta
Neutral
81
-
24,029
71,445
81,910
26.2
26.3
12.9
19.2
6.3
4.2
0.4
0.4
7.2
8.9
0.8
0.6
Tata Steel
Neutral
254
-
24,640
126,760
137,307
8.9
11.3
6.4
23.1
39.9
11.0
0.8
0.8
2.0
7.1
0.8
0.7
Oil & Gas
Cairn India
Neutral
129
-
24,270
11,323
12,490
49.4
51.0
20.7
20.7
6.3
6.3
0.4
0.4
6.4
6.1
1.2
0.6
GAIL
Neutral
373
-
47,333
64,856
70,933
9.1
9.6
24.0
28.9
15.6
12.9
1.3
1.2
8.8
9.6
0.9
0.8
ONGC
Neutral
229
-
196,135
154,564
167,321
36.8
37.4
28.6
32.5
8.0
7.1
1.0
0.9
12.7
13.5
1.5
1.4
Petronet LNG
Neutral
264
-
19,785
29,691
31,188
5.8
6.2
12.8
13.4
20.6
19.7
3.1
2.7
15.8
14.8
0.7
0.7
Indian Oil Corp
Neutral
447
-
108,481
359,607
402,760
5.9
6.1
42.5
48.7
10.5
9.2
1.4
1.3
14.1
14.4
0.4
0.4
Reliance Industries
Accumulate
1,024
1,150
331,711
304,775
344,392
12.6
13.4
91.3
102.6
11.2
10.0
1.3
1.1
11.8
12.0
1.0
0.8
Stock Watch
January 11, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
668
-
12,595
2,658
3,112
24.1
20.2
24.6
23.9
27.2
28.0
9.7
7.5
42.5
30.2
4.7
4.0
Aurobindo Pharma
Neutral
846
-
49,412
14,923
17,162
22.0
23.0
35.7
42.8
23.7
19.8
7.0
5.2
34.0
30.2
3.7
3.1
Aventis*
Neutral
4,229
-
9,739
2,082
2,371
17.4
20.8
118.2
151.5
35.8
27.9
5.2
4.2
19.9
25.5
4.4
3.6
Cadila Healthcare
Accumulate
310
352
31,746
10,224
11,840
21.0
22.0
14.6
17.6
21.2
17.6
5.8
4.6
30.8
29.0
3.2
2.7
Cipla
Neutral
622
-
49,998
14,211
16,611
20.6
19.0
27.0
28.9
23.1
21.5
3.9
3.4
18.4
16.8
3.5
2.9
Dr Reddy's
Buy
3,011
3,933
51,341
16,838
19,575
25.0
23.1
167.5
178.8
18.0
16.8
3.8
3.2
23.1
20.4
3.0
2.5
Dishman Pharma
Neutral
334
-
2,695
1,733
1,906
21.5
21.5
17.0
19.9
19.6
16.8
2.0
1.8
10.5
11.2
2.1
1.8
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
3,283
-
27,811
2,870
3,158
20.0
22.1
59.5
68.3
55.2
48.1
16.3
16.7
28.5
34.3
9.2
8.4
Indoco Remedies
Neutral
312
-
2,876
1,033
1,199
15.9
18.2
9.4
13.6
33.2
23.0
4.9
4.2
15.7
19.7
2.9
2.5
Ipca labs
Buy
680
900
8,583
3,363
3,909
12.9
18.6
13.4
28.0
50.8
24.3
3.6
3.2
7.4
14.0
2.8
2.4
Lupin
Neutral
1,713
-
77,157
13,092
16,561
25.0
27.0
50.4
68.3
34.0
25.1
7.0
5.6
22.8
24.7
5.6
4.3
Sun Pharma
Buy
793
950
190,844
28,163
32,610
25.8
30.7
17.4
26.9
45.6
29.5
4.3
3.7
13.0
16.6
6.2
5.2
Power
Tata Power
Neutral
69
-
18,581
35,923
37,402
22.6
22.8
4.1
5.2
17.0
13.3
1.3
1.2
7.5
9.3
1.5
1.4
NTPC
Accumulate
140
157
115,107
87,064
98,846
23.5
23.5
11.7
13.2
11.9
10.6
1.3
1.2
11.4
12.1
2.4
2.1
Power Grid
Buy
142
170
74,079
20,702
23,361
86.7
86.4
12.1
13.2
11.7
10.7
1.7
1.5
15.6
15.1
8.5
7.9
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
324
-
129,496
101,748
109,191
32.1
31.7
12.0
12.5
27.0
25.9
1.9
1.7
6.9
6.7
1.9
1.7
Idea Cellular
Neutral
133
-
47,993
34,282
36,941
32.0
31.5
5.9
6.2
22.6
21.5
2.1
1.9
9.9
9.3
2.0
1.9
zOthers
Abbott India
Neutral
5,702
-
12,117
2,715
3,153
14.5
14.1
134.3
152.2
42.5
37.5
10.6
8.7
27.4
25.6
4.2
3.5
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
200
290
2,017
4,719
5,287
5.2
5.8
8.6
12.7
23.4
15.8
2.7
2.3
11.4
14.8
0.4
0.4
Finolex Cables
Neutral
259
-
3,956
2,520
2,883
12.2
12.0
12.7
14.2
20.4
18.2
2.8
2.5
13.6
13.5
1.3
1.1
Goodyear India*
Buy
532
622
1,227
1,888
1,680
12.1
11.9
62.2
56.6
8.6
9.4
2.0
1.7
25.9
19.7
0.4
0.4
Hitachi
Neutral
1,239
-
3,370
1,779
2,081
7.8
8.8
21.8
33.4
56.9
37.1
9.2
7.4
17.4
22.1
2.0
1.7
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
305
-
5,515
1,620
1,847
11.5
11.5
7.3
8.5
41.8
35.9
5.4
5.0
13.3
14.4
3.3
2.8
MRF
Buy
38,661
45,575
16,397
20,316
14,488
21.4
21.1
5,488.0
3,798.0
7.0
10.2
2.4
2.0
41.1
21.2
0.8
1.0
Page Industries
Neutral
13,408
-
14,955
1,929
2,450
19.8
20.1
229.9
299.0
58.3
44.9
25.7
17.9
52.1
47.1
7.8
6.1
Relaxo Footwears
Neutral
481
-
5,769
1,767
2,152
12.3
12.5
19.3
25.1
25.0
19.2
6.1
4.7
27.7
27.8
3.3
2.7
Siyaram Silk Mills
Accumulate
1,196
1,354
1,121
1,636
1,815
11.5
11.5
89.9
104.1
13.3
11.5
2.2
1.9
17.9
17.8
0.8
0.8
Styrolution ABS India*
Neutral
729
-
1,281
1,271
1,440
8.6
9.2
32.0
41.1
22.8
17.8
2.3
2.1
10.7
12.4
1.0
0.8
TVS Srichakra
Buy
2,726
3,240
2,087
2,101
2,338
15.7
15.0
248.6
270.0
11.0
10.1
4.8
3.4
43.6
34.0
1.0
0.9
Stock Watch
January 11, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
zOthers
HSIL
Neutral
296
-
2,142
2,123
2,384
16.1
16.5
15.0
18.9
19.7
15.7
1.5
1.4
8.0
9.4
1.4
1.2
Kirloskar Engines India
Neutral
242
-
3,505
2,471
2,826
8.8
10.4
9.1
13.3
26.6
18.2
2.5
2.4
9.7
13.4
1.1
0.9
Ltd
M M Forgings
Accumulate
550
614
664
511
615
21.7
21.6
43.1
55.8
12.8
9.9
2.3
1.9
19.9
21.2
1.5
1.2
Banco Products (India) Neutral
143
-
1,019
1,208
1,353
11.0
12.3
10.8
14.5
13.2
9.8
1.5
1.4
11.9
14.5
0.8
0.7
Competent Automobiles Neutral
160
-
98
1,040
1,137
3.2
3.1
25.7
28.0
6.2
5.7
0.9
0.8
15.0
14.3
0.1
0.1
Nilkamal
Neutral
1,436
-
2,143
1,910
2,083
10.5
10.3
63.3
69.2
22.7
20.8
3.7
3.2
17.6
16.5
1.2
1.0
Visaka Industries
Buy
120
144
191
1,086
1,197
9.9
10.3
21.5
28.8
5.6
4.2
0.5
0.5
9.6
11.6
0.4
0.3
Transport Corporation of
Neutral
299
-
2,271
2,830
3,350
8.8
9.0
14.4
18.3
20.8
16.3
3.2
2.8
15.4
17.1
0.9
0.8
India
Elecon Engineering
Accumulate
78
85
854
1,369
1,533
13.7
14.9
3.3
6.1
23.6
12.9
1.5
1.4
6.6
11.4
1.0
0.9
Surya Roshni
Buy
169
201
741
2,992
3,223
8.1
8.4
14.7
18.3
11.5
9.2
1.1
1.0
9.7
11.0
0.5
0.5
MT Educare
Neutral
182
-
725
286
366
18.3
17.7
7.7
9.4
23.6
19.4
5.0
4.4
20.2
21.1
2.4
1.9
Radico Khaitan
Buy
118
156
1,563
1,565
1,687
12.2
13.0
5.7
7.1
20.6
16.6
1.7
1.6
8.3
9.6
1.5
1.3
Garware Wall Ropes
Buy
400
473
875
862
974
11.2
11.2
24.9
29.6
16.1
13.5
2.4
2.1
15.1
15.4
1.0
0.9
Wonderla Holidays
Neutral
392
-
2,212
206
308
44.0
43.6
9.0
12.9
43.5
30.4
5.9
5.4
13.7
17.8
10.6
7.1
Linc Pen & Plastics
Neutral
235
-
347
340
371
8.3
8.9
10.8
13.2
21.8
17.8
3.5
3.0
16.0
17.1
1.1
1.0
The Byke Hospitality
Neutral
154
-
616
222
287
20.5
20.5
5.6
7.6
27.2
20.3
5.1
4.2
18.9
20.8
2.8
2.2
Interglobe Aviation
Neutral
1,272
-
45,845
17,022
21,122
20.7
14.5
63.9
53.7
19.9
23.7
29.8
24.5
149.9
103.2
2.7
2.2
Coffee Day Enterprises
Neutral
273
-
5,624
2,692
2,964
17.0
18.6
-
4.7
-
57.6
3.3
3.2
0.2
5.5
2.5
2.3
Ltd
Navneet Education
Neutral
93
-
2,211
998
1,062
24.1
24.0
5.8
6.1
16.1
15.2
3.6
3.1
22.0
20.6
2.3
2.2
Navkar Corporation
Buy
205
265
2,916
365
436
38.3
37.5
5.6
5.9
36.3
34.8
2.3
2.1
6.3
6.1
8.8
7.5
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on January 08, 2016
Market Outlook
January 11, 2016
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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