Market Outlook
November 3, 2015
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are expected to open positive tracking the SGX Nifty and Asian
BSE Sensex
(0.4)
(98)
26,559
markets.
Nifty
(0.2)
(15)
8,051
US markets closed in the green reflecting positive reaction to M&A activity and better
Mid Cap
0.1
9
10,983
than expected economic data. Three deals worth more than ~$30 bn were
Small Cap
(0.2)
(23)
11,292
announced yesterday suggesting optimism among US firms. The ISM PMI index
edged down to 50.1 in October, but was better than economic forecast of 50.0.
Bankex
0.0
5
19,779
Commerce Department showed that construction spending rose 0.6% as against
expectations of 0.4%.
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
European markets recovered towards the end after the weak opening due to tepid
Dow Jones
0.9
165
17,829
Chinese manufacturing data. Markets however, reversed direction after the better
Nasdaq
1.5
73
5,127
than expected Eurozone manufacturing report.
FTSE
0.0
1
6,362
The Indian markets fell for the sixth straight session led by weak manufacturing data
Nikkei
(2.1)
(400)
18,683
and uncertainty over the outcome of Bihar elections. Weak Chinese PMI numbers
Hang Seng
(1.2)
(270)
22,370
also added to the pressure.
Shanghai Com
(1.7)
(57)
3,325
News & Result Analysis
Result Review: India Cements, Nilkamal
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Result Preview: Tech Mahindra
Advances
1,118
582
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Declines
1,580
908
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Unchanged
118
74
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Volumes (` Cr)
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Refer P7 onwards
BSE
2,570
NSE
15,317
Top Picks
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Axis Bank
Financials
Buy
478
630
31.6
FII
1,363
4,204
14,820
HCL Tech
IT
Buy
874
1,132
29.6
MFs
1,645
2,935
50,347
ICICI Bank
Financials
Buy
279
348
24.5
Ashok Leyland
Automobiles
Buy
90
111
23.0
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Larsen & Toubro
Construction
Buy
1,388
1,646
18.6
More Top Picks on Pg5
Orient Bank
146
8.1
Bajaj Electricals
7
7.8
Key Upcoming Events
India Cements
84
6.8
Previous
Consensus
Date
Region
Event Description
Reading
Expectations
Oberoi Realty
303
6.3
Nov 3
US
Factory Orders
(1.7%)
(0.9%)
RCom
80
6.2
Nov 3
AUD
Interest Rate Decision
2.0%
2.0%
Nov 3
UK
PMI Construction (Oct)
59.9
58.8
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Nov 4
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
56.9
56.5
Central Bank
69
(17.2)
IOB
31
(11.3)
Kaveri Seeds
479
(5.3)
PMC Fin.
1
(4.7)
Bajaj-Auto
2,432
(4.6)
As on November 02, 2015
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Market Outlook
November 3, 2015
Result Review
India Cement CMP: `84 / TP: `112 / Upside: 33.3%)
India Cement 2QFY2016, results were better than expected on profitability front.
Net sales during the quarter declined by 4.6% yoy to `1,079.1cr, and was
marginally below our estimate of `1095.6cr. However operating profit grew by
27.6% yoy to `228.6cr and was better than estimate of `193.9cr. The EBITDA
improvement was largely due to 10.7% yoy decline in operating cost, led by 16.4%
and 16.9% yoy fall in power & fuel and freight expenses. EBITDA margin during
the quarter improved by 536bp yoy to 21.2% and was above our estimate of
17.7%. The company reported net profit at `41cr as against our estimate of
`29.5cr. We maintain Buy rating on the stock with target price of `112.
Y/E
Sales
OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2016E
4,716
15.9
115
3.7
3.8
22.4
0.8
5.5
0.9
FY2017E
5,133
16.9
231
7.5
7.3
11.2
0.8
4.5
0.8
Nilkamal (CMP: `979 / TP: -/ Upside: -)
For 2QFY2016, Nilkamal reported a good set of numbers. The top-line grew by
4.7% yoy to `482cr, which is in-line with our estimate of `482cr. The raw material
cost as a percentage of sales, declined by 575bp yoy to 58.5% of sales. As per our
estimates, the average polyethylene prices declined by 18.5% on yoy basis (8.4%
decline on qoq basis) during the quarter resulting in improved gross margins.
However, the employee cost and other expenses increased by 57bp yoy and
156bp yoy to 6.7% and 24.3% of sales, respectively. As a result, the EBITDA
margin expanded by 361bp yoy to 10.4%. We had built in EBITDA margin
estimate of 10.9%. The interest expense has declined by 48.4% yoy to `4 which is
reflected in `35 reduction in debt by the company. Aided by higher other income,
the net profit at `26 came in slightly higher than our estimate of `22cr.
As far as segmental performance is concerned, the plastics division witnessed 5.0%
yoy growth to `409cr and the margins for the segment improved by 565bp yoy to
11.1%. The lifestyle segments’ revenues grew by 6.6% yoy to `68cr while the
segment reported profit of `1cr. Others, which is includes the mattress business,
saw revenue decline of 0.2% on yoy basis to `8cr while the segment reported loss
of `0.8cr.
At current market price, the stock is trading at 13.3x its FY2017E earnings. We
have a Neutral rating on the stock
Y/E
Sales OPM
PAT
EPS ROE
P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
Mar
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2016E
1,910
10.5
94
63.3
17.6
14.6
2.4
7.3
0.8
FY2017E
2,083
10.3
104
69.4
16.5
13.3
2.0
6.5
0.7
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Market Outlook
November 3, 2015
Result Preview
Tech Mahindra (CMP: `556 / TP: `646 / Upside: 16.2%)
Tech Mahindra is expected to post its 2QFY2016 results today. Tech Mahindra is
expected to post a 1.5% qoq growth to end the period at US$1,004mn V/s
US$989mn in 1QFY2016. In rupee terms, the company is expected to post a 4.5%
qoq growth of `6,577cr V/s `6,294cr in 1QFY2016. On the EBIDTA front, the
margins are likely to come in at 15.9% v/s 14.9% in 1QFY2016. On EBIT front,
the company is expected to post a 13.1% V/s 12.1% in 1QFY2016. We expect the
Net Profit to grow 7.2% qoq to end the period at `725cr. We currently have buy
rating on the stock.
Y/E
Sales OPM
PAT
EPS ROE
P/E P/BV EV/EBITDAEV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2016E
25,566
16.0
2,528
26.3
17.9
21.1
3.8
12.2
1.9
FY2017E
28,890
17.0
3,066
31.9
18.6
17.4
3.2
9.7
1.7
Economic and Political News
September infrastructure output up 3.2% y/y, fastest growth in 4 months
India expected to grow 7.5% in FY16, higher next year: Moody's
Aviation Turbine Fuel price cut marginally; non-subsidised LPG rate hiked
Corporate News
Blue Star acquires 51% stake in Oman's OEMC
HPCL, GAIL looking at setting up petrochemical plant in Andhra Pradesh
TVS Motor October sales up by 14%
Tata Motors ropes in Lionel Messi as global brand ambassador
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Market Outlook
November 3, 2015
Top Picks ★★★★★
Large Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
To outpace battery industry growth due to better technological
Amara Raja Batteries
15,235
892
1,040
16.6
products leading to market share gains in both the automotive
OEM and replacement segments.
Earnings to grow strongly given the MHCV cyclical upturn.
Ashok Leyland
25,684
90
111
23.0
Focus on exports and LCV's provides additional growth avenue.
Healthy pace of branch expansion, backed by distribution
Axis Bank
1,13,733
478
630
31.6
network, will be the driving force for the bank’s retail business
and overall earnings.
The stock is trading at attractive valuations and is factoring all
HCL Tech
1,22,882
874
1,132
29.6
the bad news.
Strong visibility for a robust 20% earnings trajectory, coupled
HDFC Bank
2,72,796
1,083
1,262
16.5
with high quality of earnings on account of high quality retail
business and strategic focus on highly rated corporates.
Due to its robust franchise and capital adequacy position, the
bank is well positioned to grow by at least a few percentage
ICICI Bank
1,62,208
279
348
24.5
points higher than the average industry growth rate from a
structural point of view.
Back on the growth trend, expect a long term growth of 14% to
Infosys
2,59,911
1,132
1,306
15.4
be a US$20bn in FY2020.
Well positioned to benefit from such expected gradual recovery
in the overall domestic capex cycle, given its presence across
Larsen & Toubro
1,29,213
1,388
1,646
18.6
various infrastructure segments, its execution capabilities, and
its strong balance sheet.
LICHF continues to grow its retail loan book at a healthy pace
with improvement in asset quality. We expect the company to
LIC Housing Finance
24,234
480
571
18.9
post a healthy loan book which is likely to reflect in a strong
earnings growth.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Mid Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Government thrust on Renewable sector and strong order book
Inox Wind
8,715
393
505
28.6
would drive future growth.
Change in business focus towards high-margin chronic and
Ipca labs
9,739
772
900
16.6
lifestyle segments and increasing penetration in Europe and US
Economic recovery to have favourable impact on advertising &
circulation revenue growth. Further, the acquisition of a radio
Jagran Prakashan
4,621
141
164
16.0
business (Radio City) would also boost the company's revenue
growth.
Strong brand & quality teaching with innovative technologies &
MT Educare
553
139
169
21.8
higher government educational spending to boost growth
Earnings boost on back of stable material prices and favourable
Radico Khaitan
1,382
104
119
14.6
pricing environment. Valuation discount to peers provides
additional comfort
Strong brands and distribution network would boost growth
Siyaram Silk Mills
871
930
1,145
23.2
going ahead. Stock currently trades at an inexpensive valuation.
Structural shift in the Lighting industry towards LED lighting will
Surya Roshni
586
134
183
37.0
drive growth.
Source: Company, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
November 3, 2015
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate
ABB Ltd. - November 3, 2015
Particulars (` cr)
3QCY15E
3QCY14
y-o-y (%)
2QCY15 q-o-q (%)
Net sales
1,992
1,821
9.4
1,906
4.5
EBITDA
151
124
21.8
150
0.7
EBITDA margin (%)
7.6
6.8
7.9
Net profit
69
45
53.3
57
21.1
Indian Oil Corporation Ltd - November 3, 2015
Particulars (` cr)
2QFY16E
2QFY15
y-o-y (%)
1QFY16
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
83,364
111,305
(25.1)
101,009
(17.5)
EBITDA
3,714
491
656.1
10,936
(66.0)
EBITDA margin (%)
4.5
0.4
10.8
Net profit
1,614
(898)
(279.7)
6,436
(74.9)
Power Finance Corporation Ltd. - November 3, 2015
Particulars (` cr)
2QFY16E
2QFY15
y-o-y (%)
1QFY16
q-o-q (%)
PAT
1,647
1,408
17.0
1,576
4.5
Power Grid Corporation Ltd. - November 3, 2015
Particulars (` cr)
2QFY16E
2QFY15
y-o-y (%)
1QFY16
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
4,963
4,153
19.5
4,717
5.2
EBITDA
4,322
3,711
16.5
4,208
2.7
EBITDA margin (%)
87.1
89.3
89.2
Net profit
1,424
1,201
18.6
1,366
4.2
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Market Outlook
November 3, 2015
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
9.0
8.4
8.0
6.4
7.5
7.5
5.2
8.0
6.0
4.8
7.0
7.0
4.4
4.1
6.7
6.7
6.6
3.6
7.0
6.4
4.0
2.8
3.0
6.3
2.5
2.5
6.0
2.0
5.0
4.7
5.0
-
4.0
(2.0)
3.0
(4.0)
(2.7)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
6.0
5.4
5.3
5.4
54.0
5.2
5.0
4.9
4.6
5.0
4.3
4.4
52.0
3.7
3.7
4.0
3.3
50.0
3.0
2.0
48.0
1.0
46.0
-
44.0
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
30.0
9.00
20.0
8.00
10.0
7.00
0.0
6.00
(10.0)
5.00
(20.0)
4.00
(30.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
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Market Outlook
November 3, 2015
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
6.9
6.0
5.3
4.9
4.7
4.0
2.8
2.3
2.0
1.6
2.0
1.2
1.1
0.8
(2.6)
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(4.6)
(6.0)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2015 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
10.0
7.5
8.0
6.8
5.2
6.0
4.8
3.7
3.1
4.0
2.7
2.0
1.6
1.2
1.0
2.0
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(1.0)
(3.8)
(6.0)
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
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Market Outlook
November 3, 2015
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
45,869
(2.5)
(9.8)
(16.0)
Russia
Micex
1,736
7.6
4.3
16.6
India
Nifty
8,051
1.3
(5.7)
(3.3)
China
Shanghai Composite
3,325
8.9
(9.2)
37.4
South Africa
Top 40
48,350
5.9
4.8
8.2
Mexico
Mexbol
44,543
4.2
(0.5)
(1.1)
Indonesia
LQ45
762
8.7
(6.2)
(12.2)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,664
2.2
(3.4)
(10.3)
Thailand
SET 50
916
5.4
(3.7)
(13.1)
USA
Dow Jones
17,829
8.2
1.31
2.7
UK
FTSE
6,362
3.8
(4.9)
(1.9)
Japan
Nikkei
18,683
5.4
(9.2)
13.8
Germany
DAX
10,951
14.6
(4.3)
17.4
France
CAC
4,916
10.3
(4.0)
16.1
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
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Stock Watch
November 03, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis
Neutral
203
-
3,940
2,075
2,394
14.4
14.4
9.5
11.0
21.3
18.4
4.2
3.7
21.1
21.3
2.0
1.7
United Phosphorus
Accumulate
458
510
19,630
13,698
15,752
17.6
17.6
32.1
38.5
14.3
11.9
2.8
2.3
21.4
21.3
1.5
1.3
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Ashok Leyland
Buy
90
111
25,684
18,763
22,357
11.1
11.2
3.6
4.8
25.1
18.8
4.6
4.3
18.7
22.6
1.4
1.1
Bajaj Auto
Neutral
2,432
-
70,378
24,115
27,600
21.3
21.0
136.8
157.2
17.8
15.5
5.7
4.9
32.2
31.5
2.6
2.3
Eicher Motors
Buy
17,971
22,859
48,779
11,681
15,550
15.3
16.9
358.5
564.3
50.1
31.9
15.1
11.2
29.8
34.9
4.0
3.0
Hero Motocorp
Neutral
2,549
-
50,902
28,561
31,559
14.7
14.7
151.1
163.2
16.9
15.6
6.5
5.6
38.7
35.6
1.6
1.5
L G Balakrishnan & Bros Neutral
461
-
724
1,254
1,394
11.6
11.8
35.9
41.7
12.9
11.1
1.7
1.5
13.5
13.8
0.7
0.6
Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate
1,209
1,357
75,099
37,986
42,660
12.8
13.2
51.6
61.9
23.4
19.5
3.4
3.1
14.6
15.6
1.6
1.3
Maruti
Accumulate
4,495
4,960
135,796
57,865
68,104
16.4
16.7
176.3
225.5
25.5
19.9
5.0
4.2
19.4
21.2
2.1
1.7
Minda Industries
Buy
570
652
904
2,567
2,965
7.3
8.0
38.8
54.3
14.7
10.5
2.1
1.8
14.4
16.8
0.4
0.4
Rane Brake Lining
Accumulate
328
366
259
454
511
11.1
11.4
23.8
28.1
13.8
11.7
2.0
1.8
14.2
15.3
0.7
0.6
Setco Automotive
Neutral
217
-
579
594
741
12.7
13.7
8.4
15.8
25.8
13.7
2.7
2.3
10.4
16.9
1.5
1.2
Tata Motors
Accumulate
387
424
111,793
264,038
297,882
13.8
13.9
34.5
38.9
11.2
10.0
1.9
1.6
17.6
16.8
0.6
0.6
TVS Motor
Accumulate
274
296
13,025
11,845
14,040
7.2
9.0
10.4
17.4
26.4
15.8
6.6
5.0
25.1
32.0
1.0
0.9
Amara Raja Batteries
Buy
892
1,040
15,235
4,892
5,871
17.4
17.6
28.8
37.1
31.0
24.0
7.2
5.8
23.4
24.1
3.1
2.5
Exide Industries
Accumulate
152
162
12,941
6,950
7,784
14.4
14.8
6.6
7.3
23.1
20.9
2.9
2.7
12.6
12.8
1.6
1.4
Apollo Tyres
Neutral
170
-
8,646
12,576
12,978
16.8
16.1
22.3
19.9
7.6
8.5
1.3
1.1
17.2
13.4
0.8
0.8
Ceat
Neutral
1,104
-
4,467
6,041
6,597
14.1
13.7
99.5
111.9
11.1
9.9
2.2
1.8
19.6
18.5
0.9
0.8
JK Tyres
Neutral
100
-
2,262
7,446
7,669
15.2
14.0
19.6
18.4
5.1
5.4
1.3
1.1
25.2
19.5
0.7
0.6
Swaraj Engines
Neutral
944
-
1,173
552
630
14.2
14.7
44.6
54.1
21.2
17.5
4.9
4.5
23.2
25.6
2.0
1.7
Subros
Neutral
85
-
508
1,268
1,488
11.6
11.9
3.7
6.6
22.9
12.8
1.5
1.4
6.8
11.4
0.7
0.6
Indag Rubber
Neutral
196
-
514
283
329
17.0
17.2
13.0
15.4
15.1
12.7
3.3
2.7
21.8
21.6
1.5
1.3
Capital Goods
ACE
Neutral
44
-
434
660
839
4.7
8.2
1.0
3.9
43.9
11.2
1.4
1.2
3.2
11.3
0.8
0.6
BEML
Neutral
1,130
-
4,704
3,277
4,006
6.0
8.9
29.2
64.3
38.7
17.6
2.2
2.0
5.7
11.7
1.6
1.2
BGR Energy
Neutral
109
-
787
3,615
3,181
9.5
9.4
16.7
12.4
6.5
8.8
0.6
0.6
10.0
7.0
0.6
0.8
BHEL
Neutral
200
-
48,976
33,722
35,272
10.8
11.7
10.5
14.2
19.1
14.1
1.4
1.3
7.0
9.0
1.5
1.5
Blue Star
Neutral
380
-
3,418
3,649
4,209
5.0
5.9
9.2
14.7
41.5
25.8
7.5
7.1
9.1
17.5
1.1
0.9
Crompton Greaves
Buy
170
204
10,683
13,484
14,687
4.9
6.2
4.5
7.1
37.9
24.0
2.7
2.5
7.2
10.8
0.9
0.9
Inox Wind
Buy
393
505
8,715
4,980
5,943
17.0
17.5
26.6
31.6
14.8
12.4
4.4
3.3
35.0
30.0
1.9
1.6
www.angelbroking.com
Stock Watch
November 03, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Capital Goods
KEC International
Neutral
131
-
3,360
8,791
9,716
6.1
6.8
5.4
8.2
24.2
15.9
2.4
2.2
10.0
14.0
0.6
0.6
Thermax
Neutral
855
-
10,183
6,413
7,525
7.4
8.5
30.5
39.3
28.0
21.7
4.3
3.8
15.0
17.0
1.6
1.3
Cement
ACC
Buy
1,397
1,630
26,236
13,151
14,757
16.4
18.3
63.9
83.4
21.9
16.8
2.8
2.6
13.3
16.1
1.8
1.5
Ambuja Cements
Accumulate
210
233
32,598
11,564
12,556
19.4
20.7
8.9
10.1
23.6
20.8
3.0
2.8
12.8
13.8
2.4
2.2
India Cements
Buy
84
112
2,568
4,716
5,133
15.9
16.9
3.7
7.5
22.6
11.2
0.8
0.8
3.8
7.3
0.8
0.7
JK Cement
Accumulate
663
767
4,633
4,056
4,748
14.5
17.0
22.6
41.1
29.3
16.1
2.6
2.3
9.3
15.3
1.6
1.3
J K Lakshmi Cement
Buy
371
430
4,363
2,947
3,616
16.7
19.9
11.5
27.2
32.2
13.6
3.1
2.6
9.8
20.8
1.9
1.5
Mangalam Cements
Neutral
225
-
600
1,053
1,347
10.5
13.3
8.4
26.0
26.7
8.6
1.1
1.0
4.3
12.5
1.0
0.7
Orient Cement
Accumulate
160
183
3,277
1,854
2,524
21.2
22.2
7.7
11.1
20.8
14.4
3.0
2.6
13.3
15.7
2.5
1.8
Ramco Cements
Neutral
364
-
8,677
4,036
4,545
20.8
21.3
15.1
18.8
24.1
19.4
3.0
2.6
12.9
14.3
2.6
2.3
Shree Cement^
Neutral
12,340
-
42,988
7,150
8,742
26.7
28.6
228.0
345.5
54.1
35.7
8.0
6.7
15.7
20.3
5.8
4.6
UltraTech Cement
Accumulate
2,921
3,282
80,146
25,021
30,023
19.1
21.6
89.0
132.0
32.8
22.1
3.8
3.3
12.2
15.9
3.2
2.7
Construction
ITNL
Neutral
91
-
2,998
7,360
8,825
34.0
35.9
1.0
5.0
91.2
18.2
0.4
0.4
0.3
1.4
3.9
3.7
KNR Constructions
Neutral
580
-
1,630
915
1,479
14.3
13.9
20.3
37.2
28.6
15.6
2.6
2.3
9.6
15.6
1.9
1.2
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,388
1,646
129,213
64,148
73,241
11.5
11.7
62.0
66.0
22.4
21.0
2.3
2.1
13.4
14.0
2.2
2.0
Gujarat Pipavav Port
Neutral
160
-
7,733
629
684
51.0
52.2
6.4
5.9
25.0
27.1
3.3
3.0
15.9
12.7
12.0
10.9
MBL Infrastructures
Buy
208
285
863
2,313
2,797
12.2
14.6
19.0
20.0
11.0
10.4
1.1
1.1
11.3
10.6
1.1
1.0
Nagarjuna Const.
Neutral
78
-
4,356
7,892
8,842
8.3
9.1
2.4
5.3
32.7
14.8
1.3
1.2
4.2
8.6
0.8
0.7
PNC Infratech
Neutral
517
-
2,650
1,798
2,132
13.2
13.5
22.0
30.0
23.5
17.2
2.1
1.9
11.5
11.4
1.6
1.3
Simplex Infra
Neutral
329
-
1,626
6,241
7,008
10.4
10.7
20.0
36.0
16.4
9.1
1.3
1.2
6.8
11.1
0.8
0.7
Financials
Allahabad Bank
Neutral
76
-
4,579
8,332
9,259
2.8
2.8
21.0
25.6
3.6
3.0
0.4
0.3
9.8
10.9
-
-
Axis Bank
Buy
478
630
113,733
26,473
31,527
3.5
3.6
35.7
43.5
13.4
11.0
2.6
2.2
17.9
18.9
-
-
Bank of Baroda
Neutral
162
-
37,281
19,105
21,474
2.0
2.0
19.1
24.8
8.5
6.5
0.9
0.8
10.2
12.1
-
-
Bank of India
Neutral
133
-
10,525
15,972
17,271
1.9
2.0
15.3
33.4
8.7
4.0
0.4
0.3
3.6
7.6
-
-
Canara Bank
Neutral
278
-
15,076
15,251
16,725
2.0
2.0
59.3
68.6
4.7
4.1
0.5
0.5
10.1
10.7
-
-
Dena Bank
Neutral
41
-
2,320
3,440
3,840
2.1
2.3
7.3
10.0
5.7
4.1
0.4
0.4
6.1
7.9
-
-
Federal Bank
Neutral
55
-
9,397
3,477
3,999
3.0
3.0
5.0
6.2
10.9
8.8
1.1
1.0
10.6
11.9
-
-
HDFC
Neutral
1,222
-
192,784
10,358
11,852
3.3
3.3
41.1
47.0
29.8
26.0
5.7
5.1
24.7
24.9
-
-
HDFC Bank
Buy
1,083
1,262
272,796
38,309
47,302
4.3
4.3
49.3
61.1
22.0
17.7
3.8
3.3
18.5
19.7
-
-
www.angelbroking.com
Stock Watch
November 03, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Financials
ICICI Bank
Buy
279
348
162,208
35,168
40,517
3.4
3.4
21.4
25.2
13.1
11.1
2.2
1.9
14.7
15.2
-
-
IDBI Bank
Neutral
86
-
13,738
9,625
10,455
1.8
1.8
8.5
14.2
10.1
6.0
0.6
0.6
5.9
9.3
-
-
Indian Bank
Neutral
133
-
6,373
6,160
6,858
2.5
2.5
24.5
29.8
5.4
4.5
0.4
0.4
7.7
8.6
-
-
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
480
571
24,234
3,101
3,745
2.5
2.5
33.0
40.2
14.6
12.0
2.7
2.3
19.7
20.5
-
-
Oriental Bank
Neutral
146
-
4,372
7,643
8,373
2.4
2.4
37.2
45.4
3.9
3.2
0.4
0.3
8.2
9.4
-
-
Punjab Natl.Bank
Neutral
130
-
25,429
23,638
26,557
2.8
2.8
17.9
27.2
7.2
4.8
0.7
0.6
8.5
12.0
-
-
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
21
-
2,788
1,965
2,185
2.5
2.5
2.5
3.3
8.3
6.3
0.8
0.7
9.5
11.7
-
-
St Bk of India
Buy
237
295
183,900
82,520
93,299
2.7
2.8
20.0
24.5
11.8
9.7
1.3
1.1
11.5
12.8
-
-
Union Bank
Neutral
160
-
10,968
12,646
14,129
2.3
2.4
31.0
39.1
5.2
4.1
0.6
0.5
9.8
11.4
-
-
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
36
-
3,067
3,536
3,827
1.9
1.9
5.5
6.7
6.5
5.4
0.5
0.5
7.8
8.8
-
-
Yes Bank
Buy
770
914
32,264
7,228
9,043
3.2
3.3
57.7
69.4
13.4
11.1
2.4
2.0
19.1
19.6
-
-
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
831
-
79,671
16,553
19,160
16.0
16.2
17.7
21.5
47.0
38.6
12.5
11.2
29.4
31.2
4.6
4.0
Britannia
Neutral
3,186
-
38,219
8,065
9,395
9.6
10.2
47.2
65.5
67.5
48.6
22.4
21.2
38.3
41.2
4.7
4.0
Colgate
Neutral
939
-
25,541
4,836
5,490
19.5
19.7
48.5
53.2
19.4
17.7
14.2
12.4
99.8
97.5
5.3
4.6
Dabur India
Neutral
270
-
47,417
9,370
10,265
17.1
17.2
7.3
8.1
36.8
33.3
11.1
9.0
33.7
30.6
5.0
4.5
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
5,974
-
25,123
4,919
5,742
17.2
17.4
168.3
191.2
35.5
31.2
10.1
8.6
28.8
28.9
4.7
4.0
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
1,271
-
43,297
10,168
12,886
16.1
16.1
32.1
38.4
39.6
33.1
8.1
7.4
19.7
21.0
4.3
3.4
HUL
Neutral
801
-
173,380
34,940
38,957
17.5
17.7
20.8
24.7
38.5
32.4
42.9
34.2
110.5
114.2
4.8
4.3
ITC
Buy
337
409
270,694
41,068
45,068
37.8
37.4
13.9
15.9
24.2
21.2
8.1
7.2
34.1
33.8
6.2
5.6
Marico
Neutral
386
-
24,900
6,551
7,766
15.7
16.0
10.4
12.5
37.2
30.9
10.8
9.0
33.2
32.4
3.7
3.2
Nestle*
Accumulate
6,257
6,646
60,325
11,291
12,847
22.2
22.3
158.9
184.6
39.4
33.9
20.6
18.5
55.0
57.3
5.1
4.5
Tata Global
Accumulate
133
144
8,365
8,635
9,072
9.8
9.9
6.5
7.6
20.4
17.5
2.0
2.0
6.8
7.4
0.9
0.9
IT
HCL Tech^
Buy
874
1,132
122,882
42,038
47,503
23.2
23.5
55.8
62.9
15.7
13.9
3.6
2.8
23.0
19.8
2.5
2.0
Infosys
Accumulate
1,132
1,306
259,911
60,250
66,999
28.0
28.0
58.3
63.7
19.4
17.8
4.1
3.5
20.9
19.7
3.6
3.1
TCS
Buy
2,511
3,165
494,814
111,274
126,852
28.4
28.7
125.4
143.9
20.0
17.5
7.9
7.3
39.9
42.2
4.0
3.5
Tech Mahindra
Buy
556
646
53,450
25,566
28,890
16.0
17.0
26.3
31.9
21.1
17.4
3.8
3.2
17.9
18.6
1.8
1.5
Wipro
Buy
575
719
141,970
52,414
58,704
23.7
23.8
38.4
42.3
15.0
13.6
2.9
2.6
19.5
18.0
2.3
1.9
Media
D B Corp
Accumulate
323
356
5,941
2,241
2,495
27.8
27.9
21.8
25.6
14.9
12.6
3.9
3.4
26.7
28.5
2.6
2.3
HT Media
Neutral
82
-
1,899
2,495
2,603
11.2
11.2
7.3
8.6
11.2
9.5
0.9
0.8
7.4
8.1
0.3
0.3
www.angelbroking.com
Stock Watch
November 03, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Media
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
141
164
4,621
2,170
2,355
27.0
27.6
12.8
10.3
11.0
13.8
3.1
2.9
21.8
19.4
1.9
1.6
Sun TV Network
Neutral
387
-
15,257
2,779
3,196
70.2
70.5
22.8
27.3
17.0
14.2
4.2
3.8
26.7
28.3
5.4
4.6
Hindustan Media
Neutral
269
-
1,976
920
1,031
20.0
20.0
19.2
20.9
14.0
12.9
2.3
2.0
16.4
15.3
1.7
1.5
Ventures
Metals & Mining
Coal India
Buy
325
400
205,282
77,508
85,330
21.4
23.7
24.8
27.6
13.1
11.8
5.0
4.8
38.6
41.6
1.9
1.7
Hind. Zinc
Accumulate
156
175
65,767
14,641
14,026
50.4
50.4
17.7
16.0
8.8
9.7
1.4
1.2
16.2
13.2
2.1
2.0
Hindalco
Neutral
81
-
16,716
104,356
111,186
8.7
9.5
6.7
11.1
12.0
7.3
0.4
0.4
3.5
5.9
0.7
0.6
JSW Steel
Neutral
896
-
21,651
42,308
45,147
16.4
20.7
(10.3)
49.5
18.1
1.0
1.0
(1.0)
5.6
1.6
1.5
NMDC
Neutral
96
-
38,101
8,237
10,893
46.6
44.5
10.0
11.7
9.7
8.2
1.1
0.9
12.5
13.0
4.6
3.5
SAIL
Neutral
52
-
21,291
45,915
53,954
7.2
10.5
1.5
4.4
34.2
11.8
0.5
0.5
2.3
4.1
1.1
1.0
Vedanta
Neutral
97
-
28,728
71,445
81,910
26.2
26.3
12.9
19.2
7.5
5.1
0.5
0.5
7.2
8.9
0.9
0.7
Tata Steel
Neutral
239
-
23,178
126,760
137,307
8.9
11.3
6.4
23.1
37.5
10.3
0.8
0.7
2.0
7.1
0.8
0.7
Oil & Gas
Cairn India
Neutral
153
-
28,760
11,323
12,490
49.4
51.0
20.7
20.7
7.4
7.4
0.5
0.5
6.4
6.1
1.6
1.0
GAIL
Neutral
310
-
39,323
64,856
70,933
9.1
9.6
24.0
28.9
12.9
10.7
1.1
1.0
8.8
9.6
0.8
0.7
ONGC
Neutral
247
-
211,492
154,564
167,321
36.8
37.4
28.6
32.5
8.6
7.6
1.1
1.0
12.7
13.5
1.6
1.5
Petronet LNG
Accumulate
194
210
14,520
29,691
31,188
5.8
6.2
12.8
13.4
15.1
14.4
2.3
2.0
15.8
14.8
0.6
0.5
Indian Oil Corp
Accumulate
397
455
96,329
359,607
402,760
5.9
6.1
42.5
48.7
9.4
8.1
1.3
1.1
14.1
14.4
0.4
0.3
Reliance Industries
Accumulate
959
1,050
310,614
304,775
344,392
12.6
13.4
91.3
102.6
10.5
9.4
1.2
1.1
11.8
12.0
0.9
0.8
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
680
-
12,823
2,601
3,115
21.2
20.2
20.8
23.9
32.7
28.5
10.5
7.9
37.2
31.8
4.9
4.1
Aurobindo Pharma
Neutral
847
-
49,433
14,923
17,162
23.0
23.0
38.2
43.6
22.2
19.4
6.8
5.1
36.0
30.2
3.6
3.1
Aventis*
Neutral
4,404
-
10,143
2,082
2,371
17.4
20.8
118.2
151.5
37.3
29.1
5.5
4.4
19.9
25.5
4.7
3.9
Cadila Healthcare
Neutral
411
-
42,107
10,224
11,840
21.0
22.0
14.6
17.6
28.2
23.4
7.7
6.0
30.8
29.0
4.2
3.6
Cipla
Neutral
679
-
54,555
14,359
16,884
21.3
19.7
28.4
30.5
23.9
22.3
4.2
3.6
19.3
17.5
3.8
3.2
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
4,287
-
73,104
18,213
21,214
22.6
22.7
163.0
192.5
26.3
22.3
5.4
4.5
22.5
20.0
4.0
3.3
Dishman Pharma
Neutral
388
-
3,133
1,716
1,888
20.2
20.2
16.3
21.6
23.8
18.0
2.2
2.0
9.7
11.7
1.9
1.6
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
3,225
-
27,319
2,870
3,158
20.0
22.1
59.5
68.3
54.2
47.2
16.0
16.4
28.5
34.3
9.2
8.4
Indoco Remedies
Neutral
323
-
2,979
1,088
1,262
18.2
18.2
13.1
15.5
24.7
20.9
4.8
4.0
21.2
21.1
2.8
2.4
Ipca labs
Buy
772
900
9,739
3,363
3,909
12.9
18.6
13.4
28.0
57.6
27.6
7.5
6.0
7.4
14.0
3.2
2.8
Lupin
Neutral
1,900
-
85,525
14,864
17,244
26.9
26.9
62.1
71.1
30.6
26.7
7.4
5.9
27.4
24.6
5.6
4.7
Sun Pharma
Accumulate
866
950
208,277
28,163
32,610
25.8
30.7
17.4
26.9
49.7
32.2
4.7
4.1
13.0
16.6
7.1
5.9
www.angelbroking.com
Stock Watch
November 03, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Power
Tata Power
Neutral
69
-
18,621
35,923
37,402
22.6
22.8
4.1
5.2
17.0
13.4
1.3
1.2
7.5
9.3
1.5
1.4
NTPC
Buy
133
157
109,500
87,064
98,846
23.5
23.5
11.7
13.2
11.4
10.1
1.3
1.2
11.4
12.1
2.3
2.0
Power Grid
Buy
129
170
67,383
20,702
23,361
86.7
86.4
12.1
13.2
10.7
9.8
1.6
1.4
15.6
15.1
8.2
7.6
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
350
-
140,069
101,748
109,191
32.1
31.7
12.0
12.5
29.2
28.0
2.0
1.9
6.9
6.7
2.0
1.8
Idea Cellular
Neutral
140
-
50,449
34,282
36,941
32.0
31.5
5.9
6.2
23.8
22.6
2.2
2.0
9.9
9.3
2.0
1.9
zOthers
Abbott India
Neutral
5,513
-
11,715
2,715
3,153
14.5
14.1
134.3
152.2
41.1
36.2
10.2
8.4
27.4
25.6
4.1
3.4
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
249
341
2,515
4,719
5,287
5.2
5.8
8.6
12.7
29.1
19.7
3.3
2.9
11.4
14.8
0.5
0.5
Finolex Cables
Neutral
249
-
3,807
2,728
3,036
10.8
11.0
14.4
16.8
17.3
14.9
2.6
2.3
15.2
15.3
1.2
1.0
Goodyear India*
Buy
574
655
1,325
1,953
1,766
12.4
12.0
67.4
59.6
8.5
9.6
2.1
1.8
27.7
20.2
0.4
0.4
Hitachi
Neutral
1,342
-
3,649
1,779
2,081
7.8
8.8
21.8
33.4
61.6
40.1
9.9
8.0
17.4
22.1
2.1
1.8
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
307
-
5,564
1,620
1,847
11.5
11.5
7.3
8.5
42.1
36.3
5.5
5.1
13.3
14.4
3.3
2.8
MRF
Accumulate
39,327
45,575
16,679
20,316
14,488
21.4
21.1
5,488.0
3,798.0
7.2
10.4
2.5
2.0
41.1
21.2
0.8
1.0
Page Industries
Neutral
13,708
-
15,290
1,929
2,450
19.8
20.1
229.9
299.0
59.6
45.9
26.3
18.3
52.1
47.1
8.2
6.4
Relaxo Footwears
Neutral
524
-
6,284
1,767
2,152
12.3
12.5
19.3
25.1
27.2
20.9
6.7
5.1
27.7
27.8
3.6
2.9
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
930
1,145
871
1,636
1,815
11.5
11.5
89.9
104.1
10.3
8.9
1.7
1.5
17.9
17.8
0.7
0.6
Styrolution ABS India*
Neutral
798
-
1,403
1,271
1,440
8.6
9.2
32.0
41.1
24.9
19.4
2.5
2.3
10.7
12.4
1.1
0.9
Tree House
Buy
267
347
1,129
259
324
56.8
56.8
17.0
21.7
15.7
12.3
1.6
1.4
10.1
11.5
4.4
3.7
TVS Srichakra
Accumulate
2,879
3,210
2,204
2,127
2,388
15.2
14.9
237.7
267.5
12.1
10.8
5.2
3.7
51.7
39.8
1.1
0.9
HSIL
Accumulate
279
302
2,019
2,182
2,404
16.3
16.5
15.8
18.9
17.7
14.8
1.4
1.3
8.4
9.4
1.3
1.1
Kirloskar Engines India
Neutral
266
-
3,840
2,634
3,252
10.1
12.0
10.9
17.4
24.4
15.2
2.7
2.4
11.4
16.8
1.1
0.9
Ltd
M M Forgings
Buy
522
670
630
541
634
21.7
21.4
47.8
55.9
10.9
9.4
2.2
1.8
21.8
20.9
1.3
1.1
Banco Products (India)
Neutral
128
-
918
1,208
1,353
11.0
12.3
10.8
14.5
11.9
8.9
1.4
1.2
11.9
14.5
0.7
0.6
Competent Automobiles Neutral
147
-
90
1,007
1,114
3.1
3.1
23.7
28.2
6.2
5.2
0.9
0.8
13.9
14.6
0.1
0.1
Nilkamal
Neutral
979
-
1,461
1,948
2,147
10.6
10.3
60.0
67.0
16.3
14.6
2.5
2.2
16.8
16.1
0.8
0.7
Visaka Industries
Buy
129
166
205
1,158
1,272
8.6
9.5
23.7
32.7
5.4
3.9
0.6
0.5
10.1
12.5
0.4
0.3
Transport Corporation of
Neutral
277
-
2,104
2,830
3,350
8.8
9.0
14.4
18.3
19.3
15.1
3.0
2.6
15.4
17.1
0.9
0.8
India
Elecon Engineering
Neutral
79
-
862
1,452
1,596
14.0
14.7
4.4
6.2
17.9
12.7
1.5
1.4
8.6
11.2
0.9
0.7
Surya Roshni
Buy
134
183
586
2,992
3,223
8.3
8.5
14.7
18.3
9.1
7.3
0.9
0.8
9.7
11.0
0.5
0.4
MT Educare
Buy
139
169
553
286
366
18.3
17.7
7.7
9.4
18.0
14.8
3.8
3.3
20.2
21.1
1.8
1.4
www.angelbroking.com
Stock Watch
November 03, 2015
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E
zOthers
Radico Khaitan
Buy
104
119
1,382
1,565
1,687
11.9
12.4
5.4
6.6
19.2
15.8
1.5
1.4
8.0
9.0
1.4
1.3
Garware Wall Ropes
Accumulate
364
390
796
875
983
10.4
10.6
23.1
27.8
15.8
13.1
2.2
1.9
14.1
14.8
0.9
0.7
Wonderla Holidays
Neutral
331
-
1,869
206
308
44.0
43.6
9.0
12.9
36.8
25.6
5.0
4.6
13.7
17.8
8.8
5.9
Linc Pen & Plastics
Accumulate
166
185
245
340
371
8.3
8.9
10.8
13.2
15.4
12.6
2.5
2.1
16.0
17.1
0.7
0.7
The Byke Hospitality
Accumulate
156
181
626
222
287
20.5
20.5
5.6
7.6
27.7
20.7
5.2
4.3
18.9
20.8
2.9
2.2
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on November 02, 2015
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
November 03, 2015
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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