Market Outlook
September 3, 2015
Dealer’s Diary
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE Sensex
(0.9)
(243)
25,454
Indian markets are expected to open positive tracking the SGX Nifty and global
cues.
Nifty
(0.9)
(69)
7,717
MID CAP
(0.8)
(87)
10,437
US markets closed positive as traders picking up stock at lower levels and a notable
SMALL CAP
0.2
16
10,750
increase in private sector employment during August.
BSE HC
(0.9)
(152)
17,546
European markets ended in the green but gains were eroded in late trade due to
BSE PSU
(2.4)
(159)
6,572
weakness in energy stocks. Early gains were fueled by bargain hunting and positive
BANKEX
(1.8)
(342)
18,581
US private sector employment data.
AUTO
(1.4)
(238)
17,154
Indian markets too gave up all the early gains to close in the red with banking stocks
METAL
(1.3)
(96)
7,108
seeing sharp cuts on account of the RBI draft guidelines of the new formula to
OIL & GAS
(1.3)
(110)
8,581
calculate the base rate.
BSE IT
1.2
137
11,184
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
News & Result Analysis
Dow Jones
1.8
293
16,351
China Yuan devaluation to boost tyre imports
NASDAQ
2.5
114
4,750
Revenue share approved for oil & gas fields
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
FTSE
0.4
25
6,083
Nikkei
(0.4)
(70)
18,095
Markets Today
Hang Sang
(1.2)
(250)
20,935
The trend deciding level for the day is 25,596 / 7,760 levels. If NIFTY trades above
Straits Times
(0.2)
(5)
2,878
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up
Shanghai Com
(0.2)
(6)
3,160
to 25,797 - 26,140 / 7,820 - 7,923 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
25,596 / 7,760 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct towards
Indian ADR
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
25,253 - 25,052 / 7,657 - 7,596 levels.
INFY
3.6
0.6
$17.5
Indices
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
WIT
1.2
0.1
$11.7
SENSEX
25,052
25,253
25,596
25,797
26,140
IBN
0.6
0.1
$8.6
NIFTY
7,596
7,657
7,760
7,820
7,923
HDB
2.3
1.3
$57.1
Net Inflows (September 01, 2015)
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
MTD
YTD
Advances
1,192
687
FII
4,299
4,979
(680)
(680)
123,080
Declines
1,459
821
MFs
1,279
980
299
299
70,947
Unchanged
116
76
FII Derivatives (September 02, 2015)
Volumes (` cr)
` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
Open Interest
Index Futures
2,542
4,332
(1,790)
19,888
BSE
2,597
Stock Futures
2,304
2,473
(169)
43,413
NSE
18,130
Gainers / Losers
Gainer
Loser
Company
Price (`)
chg (%)
Company
Price (`)
chg (%)
BALRAMCHIN
42
7.9
UNIONBANK
159
(5.4)
ITC
372
7.6
BHEL
207
(5.1)
RENUKA
8
6.7
SUNASIAN
201
(4.9)
KEC
131
6.6
SOBHA
273
(4.6)
SRTRANSFIN
863
5.3
PEL
897
(4.4)
Market Outlook
September 3, 2015
China Yuan devaluation to boost tyre imports
A cheaper yuan is likely to boost supplies of Chinese tyres in the domestic market.
The industry expects imports to pick up from this month onwards. According to the
Automotive Tyre Manufacturers' Association (ATMA), the share of China in
imported tyres has gone up to 90% from 48% in the past three years. Imports of
Chinese tyres increased 24% last financial year and in the April-June quarter, truck
tyre imports rose nearly 75% from a year earlier. In the truck-bus radial segment,
the low-cost Chinese tyres have grabbed over 10% of the replacement market, and
this is likely to increase in the future due to further yuan devaluation. These tyres
are available pan India and are 25-30% cheaper than locally produced tyres.
India, along with the US and Europe, are the top three markets that China is
targeting for tyre exports. China has built huge capacities, which were facing a
shutdown due to a recession in the automobile market. The US has imposed anti-
dumping and countervailing duties on Chinese tyre imports. The influx of Chinese
tyres is likely to be boosted by the currency devaluation (Chinese Yuan has
depreciated by 4% visa vis the INR in last one month). Chinese tyres are likely to
gain market share in the truck replacement segment which currently constitutes
about 40% of the overall tyre industry. The tyre companies have already applied
for re imposition of the anti dumping duty on Chinese imports which expired in
February 2015 and the decision is likely to be expected only by March 2016. We
expect the Chinese imports to continue to surge until the Government decides its
stand on levy of anti dumping. We currently have Buy rating on JK Tyres but have
Neutral view on both Apollo Tyres and Ceat.
Revenue share approved for oil & gas fields
The Union government will auction marginal oil & gas fields where discoveries
could not be monetised by state-owned explorers because of difficult geology and
small size of blocks and changed the policy towards a revenue-sharing mechanism
in oil & gas production. Under the new policy, 69 fields, with 89MMT of reserves,
worth `70,000cr at current prices, will be bid out in three months. The changed
policy will imply a shift from production sharing based on cost-recovery to revenue
sharing, market-linked pricing and marketing freedom to developers. The new
policy also allows the operator to explore and produce all forms of hydrocarbons,
including oil, gas, shale and coal-bed methane with one licence. The oil ministry
hopes to attract Indian and foreign investors despite the fall in crude oil prices with
the new policy for marginal fields
Economic and Political News
Bank credit growth remains subdued at 9.5% as on 21 August
Credit-deposit ratio slips to four-year low of 74.4% in August 2015
Aggregate deposits growth shows marginal pick up at 11.9%
Chief economic advisor flags deflation as new challenge for economy
Corporate News
VA Tech Wabag consortium bags `1,500cr worth ETP order
Vascon to raise `100cr through non-core asset sale
Jet Airways has announced its merger with loss making subsidiary JetLite
Market Outlook
September 3, 2015
Top Picks
Large Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Axis Bank
Financials
1,10,948
Buy
467
704
50.8
ICICI Bank
Financials
1,53,992
Buy
265
373
40.6
Infosys
IT
2,52,733
Buy
1,100
1,306
18.7
Inox Wind
Capital Goods
8,436
Buy
380
505
32.8
LIC HFL
Financials
20,502
Buy
406
570
40.3
Power Grid
Power
65,526
Buy
125
170
35.7
TCS
IT
5,07,937
Buy
2,593
3,168
22.2
Tech Mahindra IT
51,519
Buy
536
646
20.6
Yes Bank
Financials
27,607
Buy
660
951
44.1
Source: Angel Research, Bloomberg
Mid Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Bajaj Electricals
Others
2,417
Buy
240
341
42.2
Garware Wall RopesOthers
622
Buy
284
390
37.3
HMVL
Media
1,604
Buy
219
292
33.6
JK Tyre
Auto Ancillary
2,388
Buy
105
129
22.5
MBL Infra
Construction
955
Buy
230
360
56.3
Minda Industries
Auto Ancillary
804
Buy
507
652
28.7
MT Educare
Others
508
Buy
128
169
32.4
Radico Khaitan
Others
1,165
Buy
88
112
27.9
Surya Roshni
Others
529
Buy
121
183
51.6
Source: Angel Research, Bloomberg
Market Outlook
September 03, 2015
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
September 3, 2015
6:00PM
US
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Aug 29
271.00
275.00
1:25PM
Germany PMI Services
Value
Aug F
53.60
53.60
5:15PM
Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates
%
Sep 3
0.05
0.05
September 4, 2015
6:00PM
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Aug
215.00
218.00
6:00PM
US
Unnemployment rate
%
Aug
5.30
5.20
September 8, 2015
2:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
% Change
2Q P
0.30
0.30
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Aug
(8.30)
(5.00)
September 9, 2015
2:00PM
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Jul
1.50
--
September 10, 2015
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Aug
(10.28)
--
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Aug
(10.30)
--
7:00AM
China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Aug
1.60
1.90
4:30PM
UK
BOE Announces rates
% Ratio
Sep 10
0.50
0.50
September 11, 2015
5:30PM
India
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Jul
3.80
--
September 13, 2015
11:00AM
China
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Aug
6.00
6.60
September 14, 2015
12:00PM
India
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
% Change
Aug
(4.05)
--
September 15, 2015
6:45PM
US
Industrial Production
%
Aug
0.56
--
2:00PM
UK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Aug
0.10
--
September 16, 2015
2:00PM
UK
Jobless claims change
% Change
Aug
(4.90)
--
2:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
%
Aug F
0.20
--
6:00PM
US
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Aug
0.10
--
September 17, 2015
6:00PM
US
Building permits
Thousands
Aug
1,130.00
--
6:00PM
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Aug
1,206.00
--
11:30PM
US
FOMC rate decision
%
Sep 17
0.25
0.50
September 21, 2015
7:30PM
US
Existing home sales
Million
Aug
5.59
--
September 22, 2015
7:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value
Sep A
(6.90)
--
September 24, 2015
7:30PM
US
New home sales
Thousands
Aug
507.00
--
September 25, 2015
6:00PM
US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
2Q T
3.70
--
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
September 3, 2015
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
9.0
8.4
6.0
5.2
4.8
7.5
7.5
5.0
3.8
8.0
3.6
3.4
7.0
7.0
4.0
2.8
6.7
6.7
2.6
2.5
2.5
7.0
6.3
6.4
6.6
3.0
2.0
6.0
0.5
1.0
5.0
4.7
-
5.0
(1.0)
4.0
(2.0)
(3.0)
3.0
(2.7)
(4.0)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
8.0
7.0
54.0
7.0
5.6
5.4
6.0
5.2
5.4
5.3
5.0
52.0
4.6
4.9
5.0
4.3
3.8
4.0
3.3
50.0
3.0
48.0
2.0
1.0
46.0
-
44.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
30.0
9.00
20.0
8.00
10.0
7.00
0.0
6.00
(10.0)
5.00
(20.0)
4.00
(30.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
September 3, 2015
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.3
4.9
4.7
4.0
2.8
2.6
2.7
1.6
2.0
1.2
1.0
0.7
(2.6)
(4.6)
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(6.0)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2015 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
10.0
7.5
8.0
6.8
5.2
6.0
4.8
3.7
3.1
4.0
2.7
2.0
1.6
1.2
1.0
2.0
(3.8)
(1.0)
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(6.0)
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
September 3, 2015
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
46,464
(7.3)
(14.3)
(24.2)
Russia
Micex
1,691
1.6
3.8
21.4
India
Nifty
7,717
(9.7)
(5.1)
(2.4)
China
Shanghai Composite
3,160
(12.8)
(35.6)
41.8
South Africa
Top 40
43,700
(6.1)
(5.8)
(4.5)
Mexico
Mexbol
42,970
(4.3)
(3.6)
(6.2)
Indonesia
LQ45
746
(8.2)
(18.3)
(15.3)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,590
(7.7)
(8.7)
(15.1)
Thailand
SET 50
898
(5.5)
(8.9)
(13.8)
USA
Dow Jones
16,351
(7.1)
(9.5)
(4.2)
UK
FTSE
6,083
(9.2)
(12.5)
(11.6)
Japan
Nikkei
18,095
(11.9)
(11.6)
15.9
Germany
DAX
10,048
(12.2)
(11.4)
5.7
France
CAC
4,555
(11.0)
(8.7)
1.8
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
September 03, 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis
Neutral
205
-
3,991
2,075
2,394
14.4
14.4
9.5
11.0
21.6
18.7
4.3
3.7
21.1
21.3
2.0
1.7
United Phosphorus
Neutral
531
-
22,763
13,698
15,752
17.6
17.6
32.1
38.5
16.6
13.8
3.2
2.7
21.4
21.3
1.8
1.5
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Ashok Leyland
Accumulate
86
94
24,475
17,850
20,852
10.6
11.1
3.2
4.3
26.9
20.0
4.5
4.1
16.4
20.8
1.3
1.1
Bajaj Auto
Accumulate
2,207
2,454
63,873
23,842
27,264
19.8
19.6
128.4
144.4
17.2
15.3
5.3
4.5
30.5
29.5
2.2
1.9
Eicher Motors
Buy
18,377
22,859
49,880
11,681
15,550
15.3
16.9
358.5
564.3
51.3
32.6
15.4
11.5
29.8
34.9
4.2
3.1
Hero Motocorp
Accumulate
2,343
2,660
46,792
28,500
33,028
13.8
14.1
144.2
166.3
16.3
14.1
6.0
5.1
36.7
36.0
1.5
1.2
L G Balakrishnan & Bros Neutral
466
-
731
1,254
1,394
11.6
11.8
35.9
41.7
13.0
11.2
1.8
1.6
13.5
13.8
0.7
0.6
Mahindra and Mahindra Buy
1,135
1,493
70,491
40,088
45,176
13.8
14.0
59.6
70.4
19.0
16.1
3.2
2.8
16.6
17.2
1.4
1.2
Maruti
Buy
4,031
4,735
121,772
58,102
68,587
16.7
16.9
182.0
225.5
22.2
17.9
4.4
3.8
19.9
21.0
1.9
1.5
Minda Industries
Buy
507
652
804
2,567
2,965
7.3
8.0
38.8
54.3
13.1
9.3
1.9
1.6
14.4
16.8
0.4
0.3
Rane Brake Lining
Buy
273
366
216
454
511
11.1
11.4
23.8
28.1
11.5
9.7
1.6
1.5
14.2
15.3
0.6
0.6
Setco Automotive
Neutral
220
-
588
594
741
12.7
13.7
8.4
15.8
26.2
13.9
2.7
2.4
10.4
16.9
1.4
1.2
Tata Motors
Buy
325
432
93,935
267,464
307,211
13.7
13.7
34.6
40.7
9.4
8.0
1.2
1.0
13.2
13.6
0.5
0.5
TVS Motor
Buy
220
255
10,464
11,839
13,985
7.0
8.0
10.8
15.9
20.4
13.9
5.2
4.1
25.5
29.7
0.8
0.7
Amara Raja Batteries
Neutral
973
-
16,621
5,101
6,224
17.8
17.6
31.1
39.2
31.3
24.8
7.8
6.2
24.8
24.8
3.2
2.6
Exide Industries
Accumulate
149
159
12,648
7,363
8,247
13.7
14.5
6.6
7.7
22.6
19.3
2.9
2.6
12.6
13.3
1.5
1.3
Apollo Tyres
Neutral
174
-
8,849
12,576
12,978
16.8
16.1
22.3
19.9
7.8
8.7
1.3
1.2
17.2
13.4
0.8
0.8
Ceat
Neutral
1,132
-
4,579
6,041
6,597
14.3
14.2
101.5
116.6
11.2
9.7
2.2
1.9
20.0
19.1
0.9
0.8
JK Tyres
Buy
105
129
2,388
7,446
7,669
15.2
14.0
19.6
18.4
5.4
5.7
1.4
1.1
25.2
19.5
0.7
0.6
Swaraj Engines
Neutral
870
-
1,081
593
677
14.5
14.8
51.2
60.8
17.0
14.3
4.0
3.5
23.3
24.8
1.7
1.4
Subros
Neutral
81
-
485
1,268
1,488
11.6
11.9
3.7
6.6
21.8
12.2
1.5
1.3
6.8
11.4
0.7
0.6
Indag Rubber
Neutral
177
-
465
283
329
17.0
17.2
13.0
15.4
13.7
11.5
3.0
2.5
21.8
21.6
1.4
1.1
Capital Goods
ACE
Neutral
39
-
387
660
839
4.7
8.2
1.0
3.9
39.2
10.0
1.2
1.1
3.2
11.3
0.7
0.6
BEML
Neutral
1,221
-
5,083
3,277
4,006
6.0
8.9
29.2
64.3
41.8
19.0
2.3
2.1
5.7
11.7
1.6
1.3
BGR Energy
Neutral
105
-
759
3,615
3,181
9.5
9.4
16.7
12.4
6.3
8.5
0.6
0.6
10.0
7.0
0.6
0.8
BHEL
Neutral
207
-
50,555
33,722
35,272
10.8
11.7
10.5
14.2
19.7
14.6
1.5
1.4
7.0
9.0
1.6
1.5
Blue Star
Accumulate
341
387
3,070
3,649
4,209
5.0
5.9
9.2
14.7
37.3
23.2
6.7
6.4
9.1
17.5
0.9
0.8
Crompton Greaves
Buy
163
204
10,232
13,484
14,687
4.9
6.2
4.5
7.1
36.3
23.0
2.6
2.4
7.2
10.8
0.9
0.8
Inox Wind
Buy
380
505
8,436
4,980
5,943
17.0
17.5
26.6
31.6
14.3
12.0
4.3
3.1
35.0
30.0
1.8
1.5
Market Outlook
September 03, 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Capital Goods
KEC International
Neutral
131
-
3,370
8,791
9,716
6.1
6.8
5.4
8.2
24.3
16.0
2.4
2.2
10.0
14.0
0.6
0.6
Thermax
Neutral
967
-
11,518
6,413
7,525
7.4
8.5
30.5
39.3
31.7
24.6
4.9
4.2
15.0
17.0
1.8
1.5
Cement
ACC
Accumulate
1,355
1,548
25,432
11,856
14,092
14.5
17.8
47.6
76.1
28.5
17.8
2.9
2.7
10.6
15.7
2.0
1.6
Ambuja Cements
Accumulate
210
233
32,660
10,569
12,022
20.7
22.2
8.7
10.7
24.2
19.7
3.1
2.9
13.0
15.2
2.7
2.4
India Cements
Buy
71
112
2,172
4,716
5,133
15.9
16.9
3.7
7.5
19.1
9.4
0.7
0.7
3.8
7.3
0.8
0.6
JK Cement
Buy
606
767
4,235
4,056
4,748
14.5
17.0
22.6
41.1
26.8
14.7
2.4
2.1
9.3
15.3
1.5
1.2
J K Lakshmi Cement
Buy
346
430
4,074
2,947
3,616
16.7
19.9
11.5
27.2
30.1
12.7
2.9
2.5
9.8
20.8
1.8
1.4
Mangalam Cements
Neutral
215
-
573
1,053
1,347
10.5
13.3
8.4
26.0
25.5
8.3
1.1
1.0
4.3
12.5
0.9
0.7
Orient Cement
Accumulate
168
183
3,435
1,854
2,524
21.2
22.2
7.7
11.1
21.8
15.1
3.1
2.7
13.3
15.7
2.6
1.8
Ramco Cements
Accumulate
315
350
7,493
4,036
4,545
20.8
21.3
15.1
18.8
20.8
16.7
2.6
2.3
12.9
14.3
2.4
2.0
Shree Cement^
Neutral
10,889
-
37,933
7,150
8,742
26.7
28.6
228.0
345.5
47.8
31.5
7.0
5.9
15.7
20.3
5.1
4.1
UltraTech Cement
Accumulate
2,877
3,282
78,954
27,562
31,548
20.4
22.3
111.9
143.3
25.7
20.1
3.7
3.1
15.2
16.8
2.9
2.5
Construction
ITNL
Neutral
91
-
2,251
7,360
8,825
34.0
35.9
1.0
5.0
91.3
18.3
0.4
0.4
0.3
1.4
3.7
3.6
KNR Constructions
Neutral
558
-
1,569
915
1,479
14.3
13.9
20.3
37.2
27.5
15.0
2.5
2.2
9.6
15.6
1.8
1.2
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,529
2,013
142,289
68,920
82,446
10.9
11.5
57.0
73.0
26.8
20.9
2.5
2.3
13.6
15.5
2.3
1.9
Gujarat Pipavav Port
Neutral
177
-
8,554
721
784
53.1
53.6
8.2
9.1
21.5
19.5
3.5
2.8
20.0
18.3
11.4
10.1
MBL Infrastructures
Buy
230
360
955
2,313
2,797
12.2
14.6
19.0
20.0
12.1
11.5
1.3
1.2
11.3
10.6
1.1
1.0
Nagarjuna Const.
Neutral
67
-
3,744
7,892
8,842
8.3
9.1
2.4
5.3
28.1
12.7
1.1
1.1
4.2
8.6
0.7
0.6
PNC Infratech
Neutral
481
-
2,465
1,798
2,132
13.2
13.5
22.0
30.0
21.8
16.0
2.0
1.8
11.5
11.4
1.5
1.2
Simplex Infra
Neutral
290
-
1,436
6,241
7,008
10.4
10.7
20.0
36.0
14.5
8.1
1.2
1.1
6.8
11.1
0.7
0.6
Financials
Allahabad Bank
Neutral
79
-
4,537
8,859
9,817
3.0
3.0
23.7
30.1
3.4
2.6
0.4
0.3
10.6
12.3
-
-
Axis Bank
Buy
467
704
110,948
26,522
31,625
3.6
3.6
36.2
45.4
12.9
10.3
2.5
2.2
18.2
19.6
-
-
Bank of Baroda
Neutral
170
-
37,507
18,934
21,374
2.0
2.0
13.2
15.1
12.9
11.2
1.0
0.9
7.1
7.7
-
-
Bank of India
Neutral
131
-
8,707
17,402
20,003
2.0
2.1
40.3
50.7
3.3
2.6
0.3
0.3
9.0
10.4
-
-
Canara Bank
Neutral
261
-
13,431
15,805
17,745
2.0
2.2
64.3
73.5
4.1
3.6
0.5
0.4
10.8
11.3
-
-
Dena Bank
Neutral
40
-
2,231
3,580
4,040
2.1
2.2
8.4
10.9
4.8
3.6
0.4
0.3
6.8
8.4
-
-
Federal Bank
Neutral
59
-
10,164
3,522
4,045
3.2
3.2
12.2
14.1
4.9
4.2
0.6
0.5
12.9
13.4
-
-
HDFC
Neutral
1,126
-
177,469
11,198
13,321
3.5
3.5
45.1
53.7
25.0
21.0
5.2
4.6
27.2
28.2
-
-
HDFC Bank
Buy
996
1,255
250,293
38,629
47,500
4.5
4.7
52.6
66.4
18.9
15.0
3.5
2.9
19.6
21.2
-
-
Market Outlook
September 03, 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Financials
ICICI Bank
Buy
265
373
153,992
36,037
41,647
3.5
3.6
22.9
26.7
11.6
9.9
1.9
1.7
15.7
15.9
-
-
IDBI Bank
Neutral
56
-
9,054
9,806
11,371
1.7
1.9
10.0
16.3
5.7
3.5
0.4
0.4
6.8
10.4
-
-
Indian Bank
Neutral
126
-
6,032
6,454
7,321
2.5
2.6
26.4
33.3
4.8
3.8
0.4
0.4
8.1
9.6
-
-
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
406
570
20,502
2,934
3,511
2.3
2.3
30.9
36.8
13.2
11.0
2.1
1.8
16.8
17.5
-
-
Oriental Bank
Neutral
127
-
3,811
7,930
8,852
2.5
2.5
51.8
57.1
2.5
2.2
0.3
0.3
9.3
9.5
-
-
Punjab Natl.Bank
Neutral
130
-
24,044
24,160
27,777
2.9
3.0
18.5
24.6
7.0
5.3
0.7
0.6
8.8
10.8
-
-
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
19
-
2,619
1,999
2,249
2.4
2.4
3.5
4.0
5.6
4.8
0.7
0.6
12.6
13.1
-
-
St Bk of India
Buy
231
309
174,477
86,900
100,550
3.1
3.1
22.1
27.7
10.5
8.3
1.3
1.1
12.7
14.3
-
-
Union Bank
Neutral
159
-
10,080
12,995
14,782
2.4
2.4
32.3
40.9
4.9
3.9
0.6
0.5
10.7
12.3
-
-
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
35
-
3,037
3,474
3,932
1.8
1.9
5.9
7.2
6.0
4.9
0.5
0.5
8.1
9.3
-
-
Yes Bank
Buy
660
951
27,607
7,006
8,825
3.1
3.3
61.4
77.1
10.8
8.6
2.0
1.7
20.1
21.3
-
-
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
806
-
77,335
16,553
19,160
16.0
16.2
17.7
21.5
45.6
37.5
12.1
10.9
29.4
31.2
4.5
3.9
Britannia
Neutral
2,983
-
35,786
8,065
9,395
9.6
10.2
47.2
65.5
63.2
45.5
21.0
19.9
38.3
41.2
4.3
3.7
Colgate
Neutral
1,930
-
26,251
4,836
5,490
19.5
19.7
48.5
53.2
39.8
36.3
29.2
25.4
99.8
97.5
5.3
4.7
Dabur India
Neutral
279
-
49,033
9,370
10,265
17.1
17.2
7.3
8.1
38.1
34.5
11.5
9.3
33.7
30.6
5.1
4.7
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
6,170
-
25,948
4,919
5,742
17.2
17.4
168.3
191.2
36.7
32.3
10.4
8.9
28.8
28.9
4.8
4.1
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
1,323
-
45,044
10,168
12,886
16.1
16.1
32.1
38.4
41.2
34.5
8.4
7.7
19.7
21.0
4.5
3.6
HUL
Neutral
833
-
180,173
34,940
38,957
17.5
17.7
20.8
24.7
40.0
33.7
44.5
35.6
110.5
114.2
5.0
4.4
ITC
Buy
320
409
256,749
41,068
45,068
37.8
37.4
13.9
15.9
23.0
20.1
7.7
6.8
34.1
33.8
5.9
5.3
Marico
Neutral
407
-
26,278
6,551
7,766
15.7
16.0
10.4
12.5
39.3
32.6
11.4
9.5
33.2
32.4
3.9
3.3
Nestle*
Accumulate
5,937
6,646
57,242
11,291
12,847
22.2
22.3
158.9
184.6
37.4
32.2
19.5
17.6
55.0
57.3
4.9
4.3
Tata Global
Buy
119
152
7,495
8,635
9,072
9.8
9.9
6.5
7.6
18.3
15.6
1.8
1.8
6.8
7.4
0.8
0.8
IT
HCL Tech^
Buy
949
1,132
133,510
42,038
47,503
23.5
23.5
56.4
62.9
16.8
15.1
3.9
3.0
23.2
19.8
2.8
2.2
Infosys
Buy
1,100
1,306
252,733
60,250
66,999
28.0
28.0
58.3
63.7
18.9
17.3
4.0
3.4
20.9
19.7
3.5
3.0
TCS
Buy
2,593
3,168
507,937
108,420
123,559
28.8
28.7
127.2
143.9
20.4
18.0
8.1
7.5
39.9
41.8
4.3
3.7
Tech Mahindra
Buy
536
646
51,519
25,566
28,890
16.0
17.0
26.3
31.9
20.4
16.8
3.7
3.1
17.9
18.6
1.8
1.5
Wipro
Buy
556
719
137,288
52,414
58,704
23.7
23.8
38.4
42.3
14.5
13.1
2.8
2.5
19.5
18.0
2.2
1.8
Media
D B Corp
Buy
307
356
5,635
2,241
2,495
27.8
27.9
21.8
25.6
14.1
12.0
3.7
3.2
26.7
28.5
2.5
2.2
HT Media
Neutral
78
-
1,817
2,495
2,603
11.2
11.2
7.3
8.6
10.7
9.1
0.9
0.8
7.4
8.1
0.2
0.2
Market Outlook
September 03, 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Media
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
134
156
4,381
1,939
2,122
26.0
26.0
8.3
9.2
16.1
14.6
2.8
2.5
17.5
17.1
2.2
2.0
Sun TV Network
Neutral
372
-
14,660
2,779
3,196
70.2
70.5
22.8
27.3
16.3
13.6
4.0
3.6
26.7
28.3
5.0
4.4
Hindustan Media
Buy
219
292
1,604
920
1,031
20.0
20.0
19.2
20.9
11.4
10.5
1.9
1.6
16.4
15.3
1.3
1.1
Ventures
Metals & Mining
Coal India
Buy
345
400
217,599
72,015
78,415
21.2
21.5
21.7
25.3
15.9
13.6
5.4
5.3
33.1
39.1
2.3
2.1
Hind. Zinc
Neutral
128
-
54,105
15,546
16,821
47.5
49.0
19.7
20.3
6.5
6.3
1.1
1.0
17.2
16.6
1.2
0.8
Hindalco
Neutral
75
-
15,415
112,328
119,817
7.7
7.9
16.3
20.1
4.6
3.7
0.3
0.3
8.0
8.5
0.6
0.5
JSW Steel
Neutral
893
-
21,582
48,125
53,595
18.8
21.0
46.9
97.5
19.0
9.2
0.9
0.9
4.4
9.5
1.3
1.1
NMDC
Neutral
100
-
39,766
12,544
13,330
59.5
59.7
16.3
16.5
6.2
6.1
1.1
1.0
5.1
9.9
1.9
1.9
SAIL
Neutral
47
-
19,205
56,365
63,383
6.9
8.0
7.1
8.2
6.5
5.7
0.4
0.4
7.0
7.1
0.9
0.8
Vedanta
Neutral
94
-
27,898
81,842
88,430
30.6
32.8
20.2
25.7
4.7
3.7
0.3
0.3
7.5
8.5
0.7
0.5
Tata Steel
Neutral
220
-
21,333
136,805
149,228
11.3
11.9
26.4
36.8
8.3
6.0
0.7
0.6
6.0
8.0
0.7
0.6
Oil & Gas
Cairn India
Neutral
141
-
26,510
12,617
14,513
33.7
40.0
25.5
27.7
5.6
5.1
0.4
0.4
7.4
7.7
0.8
0.6
GAIL
Neutral
294
-
37,242
75,595
85,554
8.6
8.0
31.8
36.1
9.2
8.1
1.0
0.9
10.7
11.4
0.6
0.5
ONGC
Neutral
226
-
192,969
174,773
192,517
22.7
24.8
34.6
38.2
6.5
5.9
0.9
0.9
14.2
14.9
1.2
1.1
Petronet LNG
Buy
175
210
13,121
39,007
40,785
3.8
4.2
9.2
11.0
19.1
16.0
2.1
1.9
11.6
12.7
0.4
0.4
Indian Oil Corp
Buy
395
455
95,941
359,607
402,760
5.9
6.1
42.5
48.7
9.3
8.1
1.2
1.1
14.1
14.4
0.4
0.3
Reliance Industries
Accumulate
849
930
275,016
339,083
384,014
7.8
9.5
75.7
94.5
11.2
9.0
1.1
1.1
10.7
12.2
1.1
1.0
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
709
-
13,370
2,601
3,115
21.2
20.2
20.8
23.9
34.1
29.7
11.0
8.3
37.2
31.8
5.2
4.2
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
731
872
42,659
14,923
17,162
23.0
23.0
38.2
43.6
19.1
16.8
5.9
4.4
36.0
30.2
3.2
2.7
Aventis*
Neutral
3,878
-
8,930
2,156
2,455
15.1
16.8
109.7
133.9
35.4
29.0
4.9
4.0
18.4
22.5
3.8
3.2
Cadila Healthcare
Neutral
1,846
-
37,804
10,224
11,840
20.0
21.0
71.0
85.6
26.0
21.6
7.0
5.5
30.1
28.5
3.8
3.2
Cipla
Neutral
650
-
52,206
14,051
16,515
20.4
18.7
26.6
28.4
24.4
22.9
4.1
3.5
18.2
16.5
3.7
3.1
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
4,203
-
71,648
17,903
20,842
22.7
22.8
160.5
189.5
26.2
22.2
5.3
4.4
22.2
21.7
4.0
3.3
Dishman Pharma
Accumulate
259
290
2,092
1,716
1,888
20.2
20.2
16.3
21.6
15.9
12.0
1.5
1.3
9.7
11.7
1.4
1.1
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
3,369
-
28,535
2,870
3,158
20.0
22.1
59.5
68.3
56.6
49.3
16.7
17.2
28.5
34.3
9.4
8.6
Indoco Remedies
Neutral
338
-
3,112
1,088
1,262
18.2
18.2
13.1
15.5
25.8
21.8
5.0
4.2
21.2
21.1
2.9
2.5
Ipca labs
Neutral
800
-
10,091
3,507
4,078
17.6
18.6
25.8
32.0
31.0
25.0
4.0
3.5
13.8
14.9
3.1
2.7
Lupin
Neutral
1,881
-
84,647
14,864
17,244
26.9
26.9
62.1
71.1
30.3
26.5
7.4
5.8
27.4
24.6
5.4
4.5
Sun Pharma
Accumulate
890
950
214,257
28,163
32,610
25.8
30.7
17.4
26.9
51.2
33.1
4.9
4.2
13.0
16.6
7.1
5.9
Market Outlook
September 03, 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Power
Tata Power
Neutral
58
-
15,809
38,302
38,404
14.1
13.1
5.1
6.0
11.4
9.8
1.1
1.0
9.2
10.3
1.3
1.3
NTPC
Buy
117
157
96,183
87,064
98,846
23.5
23.5
11.7
13.2
10.0
8.8
1.1
1.0
11.4
12.1
2.1
1.9
Power Grid
Buy
125
170
65,526
20,702
23,361
86.7
86.4
12.1
13.2
10.4
9.5
1.5
1.4
15.6
15.1
8.1
7.5
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
343
-
137,251
101,748
109,191
32.1
31.7
12.0
12.5
28.6
27.5
2.0
1.8
6.9
6.7
2.0
1.8
Idea Cellular
Neutral
154
-
55,582
34,282
36,941
32.0
31.5
5.9
6.2
26.2
24.9
2.4
2.2
9.9
9.3
2.2
2.1
zOthers
Abbott India
Neutral
4,994
-
10,613
2,715
3,153
14.5
14.1
134.3
152.2
37.2
32.8
9.3
7.7
27.4
25.6
3.6
3.1
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
240
341
2,417
4,719
5,287
5.2
5.8
8.6
12.7
28.0
18.9
3.2
2.8
11.4
14.8
0.5
0.5
Finolex Cables
Neutral
239
-
3,648
2,728
3,036
10.8
11.0
14.4
16.8
16.6
14.2
2.5
2.2
15.2
15.3
1.1
0.9
Goodyear India*
Buy
543
655
1,253
1,953
1,766
12.4
12.0
67.4
59.6
8.1
9.1
2.0
1.7
27.7
20.2
0.4
0.4
Hitachi
Neutral
1,360
-
3,698
1,806
2,112
9.0
9.2
28.6
29.1
47.6
46.8
11.8
9.5
28.1
22.6
2.1
1.8
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
309
-
5,591
1,620
1,847
11.5
11.5
7.3
8.5
42.4
36.5
5.5
5.1
13.3
14.4
3.3
2.8
MRF
Accumulate
40,238
43,575
17,066
20,727
14,841
19.3
18.6
4,905.8
3,351.9
8.2
12.0
2.6
2.1
37.6
19.6
0.8
1.0
Page Industries
Neutral
14,318
-
15,971
1,929
2,450
19.8
20.1
229.9
299.0
62.3
47.9
27.5
19.1
52.1
47.1
8.3
6.5
Relaxo Footwears
Neutral
512
-
6,149
1,767
2,152
12.3
12.5
19.3
25.1
26.6
20.4
6.5
5.0
27.7
27.8
3.5
2.9
Siyaram Silk Mills
Accumulate
1,066
1,221
1,000
1,653
1,873
11.7
12.2
99.3
122.1
10.7
8.7
1.9
1.6
19.5
20.2
0.8
0.7
Styrolution ABS India*
Neutral
742
-
1,305
1,271
1,440
8.6
9.2
32.0
41.1
23.2
18.1
2.4
2.1
10.7
12.4
1.0
0.9
Tree House
Buy
388
449
1,642
259
324
56.8
56.8
17.0
21.7
22.8
17.9
2.3
2.1
10.1
11.5
6.3
5.2
TVS Srichakra
Buy
2,527
3,210
1,935
2,127
2,388
15.2
14.9
237.7
267.5
10.6
9.5
4.5
3.2
51.7
39.8
1.0
0.8
HSIL
Buy
256
434
1,852
2,085
2,436
18.5
18.6
21.7
28.9
11.8
8.9
1.2
1.1
10.0
12.1
1.0
0.8
Kirloskar Engines India
Accumulate
272
297
3,934
2,634
3,252
10.1
12.0
10.9
17.4
25.0
15.6
2.8
2.5
11.4
16.8
1.1
0.9
Ltd
M M Forgings
Buy
569
797
686
563
671
22.1
22.9
51.0
66.5
11.2
8.6
2.3
1.9
23.1
24.1
1.4
1.1
Banco Products (India)
Neutral
117
-
837
1,208
1,353
11.0
12.3
10.8
14.5
10.9
8.1
1.2
1.1
11.9
14.5
0.7
0.6
Competent Automobiles Neutral
149
-
92
1,007
1,114
3.1
3.1
23.7
28.2
6.3
5.3
0.9
0.8
13.9
14.6
0.1
0.1
Nilkamal
Neutral
984
-
1,469
1,948
2,147
10.6
10.3
60.0
67.0
16.4
14.7
2.6
2.2
16.8
16.1
0.8
0.7
Visaka Industries
Buy
140
166
222
1,158
1,272
8.6
9.5
23.7
32.7
5.9
4.3
0.6
0.5
10.1
12.5
0.4
0.3
Transport Corporation of
Buy
244
293
1,853
2,830
3,350
8.8
9.0
14.4
18.3
17.0
13.3
2.6
2.3
15.4
17.1
0.8
0.7
India
Elecon Engineering
Buy
68
87
740
1,452
1,596
14.0
14.7
4.4
6.2
15.4
10.9
1.3
1.2
8.6
11.2
0.8
0.7
Surya Roshni
Buy
121
183
529
2,992
3,223
8.3
8.5
14.7
18.3
8.2
6.6
0.8
0.7
9.8
11.0
0.5
0.4
MT Educare
Buy
128
169
508
286
366
18.3
17.7
7.7
9.4
16.5
13.6
3.5
3.1
20.2
21.1
1.7
1.3
Market Outlook
September 03, 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E
zOthers
Radico Khaitan
Buy
88
112
1,165
1,565
1,687
11.9
12.4
5.4
6.6
16.2
13.3
1.3
1.2
8.0
9.0
1.2
1.2
Garware Wall Ropes
Buy
284
390
622
875
983
10.4
10.6
23.1
27.8
12.3
10.2
1.7
1.5
14.1
14.8
0.7
0.6
Wonderla Holidays
Buy
275
322
1,553
206
308
44.0
43.6
9.0
12.9
30.5
21.3
4.2
3.8
13.7
17.8
7.4
4.9
Linc Pen & Plastics
Buy
154
185
228
340
371
8.3
8.9
10.8
13.2
14.3
11.7
2.3
2.0
16.0
17.1
0.7
0.6
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on September 02, 2015
Market Outlook
September 03, 2015
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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