Market Outlook
March 1, 2016
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are expected to open on a Positive note tracking the SGX Nifty and
BSE Sensex
(0.7)
(152)
23,002
its Asian peers.
Nifty
(0.6)
(43)
6,987
US markets ended in the negative territory on Monday as late selling pushed the
Mid Cap
0.0
2
9,575
markets down. Weaker earnings by drug companies pushed healthcare stocks down
Small Cap
(0.1)
(7)
9,548
while softer economic data also weighed in on the markets.
Bankex
1.1
167
15,815
European shares got off to a weak start yesterday due to disappointment over the
G20 meeting failing to agree new measures to boost growth. However, the markets
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
reversed direction as a decision by China’s Central Bank to resume its easing cycle
Dow Jones
(0.7)
(123)
16,517
more than offset earlier disappointment.
Nasdaq
(0.7)
(33)
4,558
Indian shares fell on Monday in a volatile trading session, as investors were
FTSE
0.0
1
6,097
disappointed over various tax proposals in the Union Budget. Weaker global cues
Nikkei
(1.0)
(162)
16,027
also dampened investor sentiment.
Hang Seng
(1.3)
(252)
19,112
News & Result Analysis
Shanghai Com
(2.9)
(79)
2,688
BEML bags `900cr Kolkata Metro order
IIP output grows to 2.9% in January
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Advances
1,066
640
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Declines
1,433
872
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Unchanged
152
74
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Refer Pg4 onwards
Volumes (` Cr)
BSE
4,656
Top Picks
CMP
Target
Upside
NSE
24,881
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
Amara Raja Batteries Auto & Auto Ancillary
Buy
852
1,040
22.0
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
HCL Tech
IT
Buy
812
1,038
27.8
FII
(584)
(6,281)
(25,979)
LIC Housing Finance Financials
Buy
422
592
40.3
MFs
709
4,393
80,570
Bharat Electronics
Capital Goods
Buy
1,030
1,414
37.3
Navkar Corporation Others
Buy
152
265
74.6
More Top Picks on Pg3
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Piind
579
12.1
Key Upcoming Events
Previous
Consensus
Auropharma
655
6.5
Date
Region
Event Description
Reading
Expectations
Den
74
5.9
Mar 1 Germany
PMI Manufacturing
50.2
50.2
Jubilant
308
5.3
UK
PMI Manufacturing
52.9
52.3
Jpassociat
7
5.2
China
PMI Manufacturing
49.4
49.4
Mar 3 US
Initial Jobless Claims (000’s)
272
--
6.(
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Ongc
194
(9.7)
Arvind
239
(6.3)
Maruti
3,243
(4.9)
Bajajhldng
1,350
(4.7)
Cairn
118
(4.6)
As on February 29, 2016
Market Outlook
March 1, 2016
BEML Bags `900cr Kolkata Metro order
BEML Ltd has bagged an order valued at `900cr for supply of Metro coaches to
Kolkata East-West Metro line. BEML has executed similar orders in the past having
supplied over 700 metro cars to Delhi Metro Rail Corporation, and also having
supplied metro cars to Bangalore Metro Phase-I and for Jaipur Metro Project.
BEML being a relatively low cost player compared to Bombardier and Alstom India
stands to benefit from rolling stock awarding activity for Metros which is expected
to pick up over FY2016-20. The Rail & Metro segment accounts ~31% of
company’s total order book. We currently have a Buy rating on the stock.
IIP output grows to 2.9% in January
The India’s Index of Industrial Production (IIP) registered growth of 2.9% in January
2016 on a month-on-month basis, aided by higher coal, refinery products,
fertilizers, cement and electricity output. The index had witnessed a marginal
growth of 0.9% for the month of December 2015.
Coal and cement reported healthy output numbers while, production of oil, natural
gas, and steel dipped in the period under review.
Electricity recorded 6% change, distilling of refinery products increased by 4.8%,
extraction of crude oil fell by 4.6%, coal mining increased by 9.1%, fertilisers
manufacturing rose by 6.2% while steel declined by 2.8% in January 2016.
Economic and Political News
Government to ‘rightsize’ ministries for projects like ‘Make in India', ‘Namami
Gange’
Doubled Coal Cess to increase power tariff by 15 paisa/unit
Govt to amend IT Act over MAT on capital gains
Corporate News
Indian Oil Corp buys Russian Urals crude in rare tender: Sources
Thai company Indorama Ventures signs up 50:50 joint venture with Dhunseri
Petrochem for PET resins
Lupin's subsidiary Kyowa to set up plant in Japan
Market Outlook
March 1, 2016
Top Picks
Large Cap
M
arket Cap
CM
P
T
arget
Upsid
e
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
To outpace battery industry growth due to better technological
Amara Raja Batteries
14,557
852
1,040
22.0
products leading to market share gains in both the automotive
OEM and replacement segments.
Earnings to grow strongly given the MHCV cyclical upturn.
Ashok Leyland
24,930
88
111
26.7
Focus on exports and LCV's provides additional growth
avenue.
Uptick in defense capex by government when coupled with
Bharat Electronics
24,719
1,030
1,414
37.3
BELs strong market positioning, indicate that good times are
ahead for BEL.
The stock is trading at attractive valuations and is factoring all
HCL Tech
1,14,552
812
1,038
27.8
the bad news.
Strong visibility for a robust 20% earnings trajectory, coupled
HDFC Bank
2,45,675
973
1,262
29.8
with high quality of earnings on account of high quality retail
business and strategic focus on highly rated corporates.
Back on the growth trend, expect a long term growth of 14%
Infosys
2,48,931
1,084
1,347
24.3
to be a US$20bn in FY2020.
LICHF continues to grow its retail loan book at a healthy pace
with improvement in asset quality. We expect the company to
LIC Housing Finance
21,289
422
592
40.3
post a healthy loan book which is likely to reflect in a strong
earnings growth.
Huge bid pipeline of re-development works at Delhi and other
NBCC
10,367
864
1,089
26.1
State Governments and opportunity from Smart City, positions
NBCC to report strong growth, going forward.
New launches to enable outpace industry growth; margins
TVS Motors
12,718
268
330
23.3
expansion to boost earnings.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Mid Cap
M
arket Cap
CM
P
T
arget
Upsid
e
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favourable outlook for the AC industry to augur well for
Cooling products business which is out pacing the market
Blue Star
2,823
314
439
39.9
growth. EMPPAC division's profitability to improve once
operating environment turns around.
Economic recovery to have favourable impact on advertising &
circulation revenue growth. Further, the acquisition of a radio
Jagran Prakashan
4,879
149
189
26.6
business (Radio City) would also boost the company's revenue
growth.
Massive capacity expansion along with rail advantage at ICD
Navkar Corporation
2,165
152
265
74.6
as well CFS augurs well for the company
Earnings boost on back of stable material prices and
Radico Khaitan
1,267
95
156
63.9
favourable pricing environment. Valuation discount to peers
provides additional comfort
Strong brands and distribution network would boost growth
Siyaram Silk Mills
900
960
1,354
41.0
going ahead. Stock currently trades at an inexpensive
valuation.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
March 01, 2016
Key Upcoming Events
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
Mar 1, 2016
2:25PM
Germany
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Feb F
50.20
50.20
3:00PM
UK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Feb
52.90
52.30
6:30AM
China
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Feb
49.40
49.40
2:25PM
Germany
Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Feb
(20.00)
(10.00)
Mar 3, 2016
7:00PM
US
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Feb 27
272.00
--
2:25PM
Germany
PMI Services
Value
Feb F
55.10
55.10
Mar 4, 2016
7:00PM
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Feb
151.00
195.00
7:00PM
US
Unnemployment rate
%
Feb
4.90
4.90
Mar 8, 2016
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Feb
(11.20)
--
3:30PM
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
% Change
4Q P
0.30
--
Mar 9, 2016
3:00PM
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Jan
(0.40)
--
Mar 10, 2016 7:00AM
China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Feb
1.80
--
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Feb
(11.00)
--
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Feb
(13.60)
--
6:15PM
Euro Zone
ECB announces interest rates
%
Mar 10
0.05
--
Mar 14, 2016 12:00PM
India
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
% Change
Feb
(0.90)
--
5:30PM
India
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Jan
(1.30)
--
Mar 15, 2016
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Feb
(0.50)
--
Mar 16, 2016 6:00PM
US
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Feb
--
--
6:00PM
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Feb
1,099.00
--
6:00PM
US
Building permits
Thousands
Feb
1,202.00
--
3:00PM
UK
Jobless claims change
% Change
Feb
(14.80)
--
6:45PM
US
Industrial Production
%
Feb
0.92
--
11:30PM
US
FOMC rate decision
%
Mar 16
0.50
0.50
Mar 17, 2016 3:30PM
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
%
Feb F
0.30
--
5:30PM
UK
BOE Announces rates
% Ratio
Mar 17
0.50
0.50
Mar 21, 2016 7:30PM
US
Existing home sales
Million
Feb
5.47
--
Mar 22, 2016 3:00PM
UK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Feb
0.30
--
Mar 23, 2016 7:30PM
US
New home sales
Thousands
Feb
494.00
--
Mar 29, 2016 7:30PM
US
Consumer Confidence
S.A./ 1985=100
Mar
92.20
--
Mar 31, 2016 2:00PM
UK
GDP (YoY)
% Change
4Q F
1.90
--
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
March 1, 2016
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
9.0
12.0
8.3
9.9
7.8
7.6
7.7
10.0
8.0
7.5
7.3
8.0
6.3
6.7
6.6
6.7
7.0
6.4
4.8
6.0
4.2
4.3
3.7
5.8
3.0
4.0
2.5
2.5
6.0
2.0
5.0
4.5
-
4.0
(2.0)
(1.3)
(4.0)
3.0
(3.4)
(6.0)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
56.0
5.6
5.7
6.0
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.3
4.9
5.0
5.0
54.0
5.0
4.4
3.7
3.7
52.0
4.0
50.0
3.0
48.0
2.0
1.0
46.0
-
44.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
0.0
8.00
7.50
(5.0)
7.00
(10.0)
6.50
(15.0)
6.00
5.50
(20.0)
5.00
(25.0)
4.50
4.00
(30.0)
3.50
(35.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
March 1, 2016
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
6.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
4.5
4.0
2.8
1.9
1.8
2.1
2.0
1.4
1.0
0.5
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(4.1)
(4.5)
(6.0)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2015 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
7.3
6.8
6.0
4.7
4.7
4.0
2.5
2.5
2.6
1.4
1.5
2.0
1.2
0.6
-
(2.0)
(3.0)
(4.0)
(3.8)
(6.0)
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Market Outlook
March 1, 2016
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
42,794
14.1
(11.1)
(16.6)
Russia
Micex
1,840
5.3
1.7
4.5
India
Nifty
6,987
(5.9)
(12.0)
(20.3)
China
Shanghai Composite
2,688
(7.7)
(25.6)
(16.0)
South Africa
Top 40
43,803
0.1
(6.6)
(7.1)
Mexico
Mexbol
43,715
3.8
(1.5)
(1.1)
Indonesia
LQ45
835
5.1
6.9
(10.2)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,655
1.8
(0.4)
(8.5)
Thailand
SET 50
851
6.0
(4.2)
(19.0)
USA
Dow Jones
16,517
3.6
(7.3)
(9.7)
UK
FTSE
6,097
2.8
(4.6)
(11.5)
Japan
Nikkei
16,027
(6.6)
(19.6)
(12.3)
Germany
DAX
9,495
(1.5)
(15.0)
(15.8)
France
CAC
4,354
0.7
(11.7)
(12.3)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Stock Watch
March 01, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis
Neutral
147
-
2,867
2,097
2,415
14.4
14.4
9.5
11.0
15.5
13.4
3.1
2.7
21.1
21.3
1.4
1.2
United Phosphorus
Buy
382
480
16,358
12,500
14,375
18.3
18.3
29.8
35.9
12.8
10.6
2.4
2.0
20.0
20.3
1.4
1.1
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Ashok Leyland
Buy
88
111
24,930
17,995
21,544
11.4
11.6
3.4
4.7
25.8
18.6
4.5
4.2
17.7
22.2
1.3
1.1
Bajaj Auto
Buy
2,200
2,585
63,672
22,709
25,860
20.9
20.1
129.0
143.6
17.1
15.3
5.2
4.5
30.7
29.4
2.3
2.0
Bharat Forge
Buy
746
875
17,376
7,351
8,318
19.9
19.7
31.2
36.5
23.9
20.5
4.3
3.6
19.3
19.2
2.5
2.2
Eicher Motors
Accumulate
18,901
20,044
51,336
15,556
16,747
15.5
17.3
464.8
597.5
40.7
31.6
14.9
10.9
36.2
34.3
3.2
2.9
Gabriel India
Buy
76
101
1,089
1,415
1,544
8.7
9.0
4.6
5.4
16.5
14.0
3.0
2.7
18.1
18.9
0.7
0.7
Hero Motocorp
Accumulate
2,500
2,864
49,915
28,244
30,532
15.5
15.9
156.7
168.5
16.0
14.8
6.4
5.4
39.9
36.4
1.6
1.5
Jamna Auto Industries Buy
120
160
962
1,281
1,473
11.2
11.5
7.6
9.2
15.9
13.1
4.0
3.3
25.4
25.2
0.8
0.7
L G Balakrishnan & Bros Neutral
413
-
649
1,254
1,394
11.6
11.8
35.9
41.7
11.5
9.9
1.6
1.4
13.5
13.8
0.6
0.6
Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate
1,227
1,364
76,196
38,416
42,904
13.7
13.9
54.8
63.4
22.4
19.4
3.5
3.1
15.4
15.8
1.6
1.4
Maruti
Neutral
3,243
-
97,952
57,865
68,104
16.4
16.7
176.3
225.5
18.4
14.4
3.6
3.0
19.4
21.2
1.5
1.2
Minda Industries
Buy
768
1,047
1,219
2,523
2,890
8.7
9.0
55.0
65.4
14.0
11.8
2.7
2.2
19.3
18.7
0.6
0.5
Motherson Sumi
Buy
226
313
29,867
39,343
45,100
8.8
9.1
10.1
12.5
22.4
18.1
7.1
5.6
35.3
34.4
0.8
0.7
Rane Brake Lining
Buy
340
465
269
454
511
11.5
12.0
25.2
31.0
13.5
11.0
2.0
1.8
14.9
16.6
0.7
0.7
Setco Automotive
Neutral
32
-
433
594
741
12.7
13.7
1.7
3.2
19.1
10.1
2.0
1.7
10.4
16.9
1.2
1.0
Tata Motors
Buy
300
371
86,688
259,686
273,957
13.0
13.4
25.9
29.5
11.6
10.2
1.5
1.3
8.0
9.0
0.5
0.5
TVS Motor
Buy
268
330
12,718
11,263
13,122
6.9
8.5
9.2
15.0
29.1
17.9
6.6
5.3
22.7
29.6
1.1
0.9
Amara Raja Batteries
Buy
852
1,040
14,558
4,892
5,871
17.4
17.6
28.8
37.1
29.6
23.0
6.9
5.5
23.4
24.1
2.9
2.4
Exide Industries
Buy
128
162
10,880
6,950
7,784
14.4
14.8
6.6
7.3
19.4
17.5
2.5
2.2
12.6
12.8
1.3
1.2
Apollo Tyres
Buy
158
183
8,038
12,056
12,714
17.2
16.4
23.0
20.3
6.9
7.8
1.2
1.1
17.7
13.6
0.7
0.7
Ceat
Buy
946
1,119
3,827
6,041
6,597
14.1
13.7
99.5
111.9
9.5
8.5
1.9
1.6
19.6
18.5
0.8
0.7
JK Tyres
Neutral
74
-
1,687
7,446
7,669
15.2
14.0
19.6
18.4
3.8
4.0
1.0
0.8
25.2
19.5
0.6
0.5
Swaraj Engines
Accumulate
819
919
1,018
552
630
14.2
14.7
44.6
54.1
18.4
15.2
4.3
3.9
23.2
25.6
1.7
1.4
Subros
Neutral
78
-
466
1,293
1,527
11.8
11.9
4.2
6.7
18.5
11.6
1.4
1.3
7.7
11.5
0.7
0.6
Indag Rubber
Neutral
153
-
402
283
329
17.0
17.2
13.0
15.4
11.8
9.9
2.6
2.2
21.8
21.6
1.1
0.9
Capital Goods
ACE
Neutral
35
-
351
660
839
4.7
8.2
1.0
3.9
35.5
9.1
1.1
1.0
3.2
11.3
0.7
0.5
BEML
Buy
949
1,157
3,953
3,277
4,006
6.0
8.9
36.2
64.3
26.2
14.8
1.8
1.7
5.7
11.7
1.3
1.0
Bharat Electronics
Buy
1,030
1,414
24,719
7,737
8,634
16.8
17.2
54.0
61.5
19.1
16.8
2.7
2.4
39.3
45.6
2.3
1.9
Stock Watch
March 01, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Capital Goods
Voltas
Buy
223
353
7,364
5,363
5,963
8.0
9.1
11.0
13.8
20.2
16.1
3.1
2.7
16.2
17.9
1.3
1.2
BGR Energy
Neutral
92
-
665
3,615
3,181
9.5
9.4
16.7
12.4
5.5
7.4
0.5
0.5
10.0
7.0
0.6
0.8
BHEL
Neutral
91
-
22,298
33,722
35,272
10.8
11.7
10.5
14.2
8.7
6.4
0.6
0.6
7.0
9.0
0.7
0.7
Blue Star
Buy
314
439
2,823
3,548
3,977
6.3
6.9
13.7
17.2
22.9
18.3
5.8
3.8
26.1
25.4
0.9
0.8
Crompton Greaves
Neutral
130
-
8,120
13,484
14,687
4.9
6.2
4.5
7.1
28.8
18.3
2.0
1.9
7.2
10.8
0.7
0.7
Greaves Cotton
Neutral
117
-
2,860
1,655
1,755
16.6
16.8
7.4
7.8
15.8
15.0
3.2
3.0
21.1
20.6
1.7
1.6
Inox Wind
Buy
219
458
4,856
4,980
5,943
17.0
17.5
26.6
31.6
8.2
6.9
2.5
1.8
35.0
30.0
1.1
0.9
KEC International
Neutral
101
-
2,593
8,791
9,716
6.1
6.8
5.4
8.2
18.7
12.3
1.9
1.7
10.0
14.0
0.5
0.5
Thermax
Neutral
752
-
8,961
6,413
7,525
7.4
8.5
30.5
39.3
24.7
19.1
3.8
3.3
15.0
17.0
1.4
1.1
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,191
-
22,363
13,151
14,757
16.4
18.3
63.9
83.4
18.6
14.3
2.4
2.2
13.3
16.1
1.5
1.3
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
188
-
29,168
11,564
12,556
19.4
20.7
8.9
10.1
21.1
18.6
2.6
2.5
12.8
13.8
2.2
2.0
HeidelbergCement
Neutral
64
-
1,455
1,772
1,926
13.3
15.4
1.0
3.0
64.2
21.4
1.6
1.5
2.6
7.9
1.4
1.2
India Cements
Neutral
67
-
2,043
4,216
4,840
18.0
19.5
4.0
9.9
16.6
6.7
0.7
0.6
4.0
9.5
0.8
0.6
JK Cement
Buy
478
605
3,338
3,661
4,742
10.1
15.8
7.5
28.5
63.7
16.8
1.9
1.7
7.5
22.9
1.4
1.0
J K Lakshmi Cement
Neutral
270
-
3,173
2,947
3,616
16.7
19.9
11.5
27.2
23.5
9.9
2.2
1.9
9.8
20.8
1.5
1.2
Mangalam Cements
Neutral
171
-
458
1,053
1,347
10.5
13.3
8.4
26.0
20.4
6.6
0.9
0.8
4.3
12.5
0.8
0.6
Orient Cement
Neutral
138
-
2,826
1,854
2,524
21.2
22.2
7.7
11.1
17.9
12.4
2.6
2.2
13.3
15.7
2.3
1.6
Ramco Cements
Neutral
360
-
8,566
4,036
4,545
20.8
21.3
15.1
18.8
23.8
19.1
2.9
2.6
12.9
14.3
2.6
2.3
Shree Cement^
Neutral
10,078
-
35,108
7,150
8,742
26.7
28.6
228.0
345.5
44.2
29.2
6.5
5.5
15.7
20.3
4.7
3.7
UltraTech Cement
Accumulate
2,767
3,107
75,934
24,669
29,265
18.2
20.6
82.0
120.0
33.7
23.1
3.6
3.2
11.3
14.7
3.1
2.7
Construction
ITNL
Neutral
65
-
2,130
7,360
8,825
34.0
35.9
7.0
9.0
9.3
7.2
0.3
0.3
3.2
3.7
3.7
3.6
KNR Constructions
Buy
464
603
1,304
937
1,470
14.3
14.0
44.2
38.6
10.5
12.0
2.1
1.8
15.4
15.4
1.5
1.0
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,079
1,310
100,530
58,870
65,708
8.3
10.3
42.0
53.0
25.7
20.4
1.8
1.6
8.8
11.2
1.9
1.7
Gujarat Pipavav Port
Neutral
147
-
7,107
629
684
51.0
52.2
6.4
5.9
23.0
24.9
3.0
2.8
15.9
12.7
11.0
9.9
MBL Infrastructures
Buy
117
285
484
2,313
2,797
12.2
14.6
19.0
20.0
6.1
5.8
0.6
0.6
11.3
10.6
0.9
0.8
Nagarjuna Const.
Neutral
61
-
3,400
7,892
8,842
8.8
9.1
3.0
5.3
20.4
11.5
1.0
0.9
5.0
8.5
0.7
0.6
PNC Infratech
Buy
484
558
2,481
1,873
2,288
13.2
13.5
24.0
32.0
20.2
15.1
2.0
1.7
12.1
12.3
1.4
1.2
Simplex Infra
Neutral
196
-
969
5,955
6,829
10.3
10.5
16.0
31.0
12.3
6.3
0.7
0.6
5.3
9.9
0.7
0.6
Power Mech Projects
Neutral
575
-
846
1,539
1,801
12.8
12.7
59.0
72.1
9.8
8.0
1.5
1.2
18.6
16.8
0.6
0.5
Stock Watch
March 01, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Construction
Sadbhav Engineering
Buy
208
289
3,570
3,481
4,219
10.7
10.8
8.2
11.7
25.4
17.8
2.4
2.1
10.3
13.5
1.3
1.1
NBCC
Buy
864
1,089
10,367
5,816
7,382
6.9
7.7
29.6
39.8
29.2
21.7
5.2
4.1
24.1
26.7
1.5
1.2
MEP Infra
Neutral
38
-
622
1,956
1,876
28.1
30.5
1.3
3.0
29.4
12.8
6.2
4.2
21.2
32.8
1.7
1.7
SIPL
Neutral
78
-
2,747
675
1,042
62.4
64.7
-
-
2.9
3.3
-
-
15.7
10.6
Financials
Allahabad Bank
Neutral
43
-
2,603
8,569
9,392
2.8
2.9
16.3
27.5
2.7
1.6
0.3
0.2
7.6
11.9
-
-
Axis Bank
Buy
375
494
89,329
26,473
31,527
3.5
3.6
35.7
43.5
10.5
8.6
1.8
1.5
17.9
18.9
-
-
Bank of Baroda
Neutral
132
-
30,415
18,485
21,025
1.9
2.0
13.5
21.1
9.8
6.2
0.8
0.7
7.3
10.6
-
-
Bank of India
Neutral
83
-
6,735
15,972
17,271
1.9
2.0
15.3
33.4
5.4
2.5
0.2
0.2
3.6
7.6
-
-
Canara Bank
Neutral
159
-
8,609
15,441
16,945
2.0
2.1
46.6
70.4
3.4
2.3
0.3
0.3
8.0
11.2
-
-
Dena Bank
Neutral
26
-
1,674
3,440
3,840
2.1
2.3
7.3
10.0
3.6
2.6
0.3
0.2
6.1
7.9
-
-
Federal Bank
Neutral
46
-
7,936
3,477
3,999
3.0
3.0
5.0
6.2
9.2
7.4
0.9
0.8
10.6
11.9
-
-
HDFC
Neutral
1,062
-
167,654
10,358
11,852
3.3
3.3
41.1
47.0
25.9
22.6
4.9
4.5
24.7
24.9
-
-
HDFC Bank
Buy
973
1,262
245,675
38,309
47,302
4.3
4.3
49.3
61.1
19.7
15.9
3.4
2.9
18.5
19.7
-
-
ICICI Bank
Buy
190
254
110,445
34,279
39,262
3.3
3.3
21.0
24.4
9.1
7.8
1.5
1.3
14.4
14.7
-
-
IDBI Bank
Neutral
58
-
11,106
9,625
10,455
1.8
1.8
8.5
14.2
6.9
4.1
0.4
0.4
5.9
9.3
-
-
Indian Bank
Neutral
77
-
3,686
6,160
6,858
2.5
2.5
24.5
29.8
3.1
2.6
0.3
0.2
7.7
8.6
-
-
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
422
592
21,289
3,101
3,745
2.5
2.5
33.0
40.2
12.8
10.5
2.4
2.0
19.7
20.5
-
-
Oriental Bank
Neutral
77
-
2,298
7,643
8,373
2.4
2.4
37.2
45.4
2.1
1.7
0.2
0.2
8.2
9.4
-
-
Punjab Natl.Bank
Neutral
71
-
14,000
23,638
26,557
2.8
2.8
17.9
27.2
4.0
2.6
0.4
0.3
8.5
12.0
-
-
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
17
-
2,248
1,965
2,185
2.5
2.5
2.5
3.3
6.7
5.0
0.7
0.6
9.5
11.7
-
-
St Bk of India
Accumulate
158
177
122,962
79,958
86,061
2.6
2.6
13.4
20.7
11.8
7.7
1.0
0.9
11.5
12.8
-
-
Union Bank
Neutral
107
-
7,356
12,646
14,129
2.3
2.4
31.0
39.1
3.5
2.7
0.4
0.3
9.8
11.4
-
-
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
31
-
2,676
3,536
3,827
1.9
1.9
5.5
6.7
5.6
4.7
0.5
0.4
7.8
8.8
-
-
Yes Bank
Accumulate
688
767
28,927
7,190
9,011
3.2
3.3
58.2
69.7
11.8
9.9
2.1
1.8
19.2
19.6
-
-
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
849
-
81,393
16,553
19,160
16.0
16.2
17.7
21.5
48.0
39.5
12.7
11.5
29.4
31.2
4.8
4.1
Britannia
Neutral
2,759
-
33,095
8,481
9,795
14.0
14.1
65.5
78.3
42.1
35.2
19.9
16.4
38.3
41.2
3.8
3.3
Colgate
Neutral
822
-
22,356
4,836
5,490
19.5
19.7
48.5
53.2
17.0
15.5
12.4
10.8
99.8
97.5
4.5
4.0
Dabur India
Accumulate
238
267
41,832
9,370
10,265
17.1
17.2
7.3
8.1
32.4
29.4
9.8
8.0
33.7
30.6
4.4
4.0
GlaxoSmith Con*
Accumulate
5,579
6,118
23,464
4,919
5,742
17.2
17.4
168.3
191.2
33.2
29.2
9.4
8.0
28.8
28.9
4.3
3.7
Stock Watch
March 01, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FMCG
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
1,189
-
40,489
10,168
12,886
16.1
16.1
32.1
38.4
37.1
31.0
7.5
7.0
19.7
21.0
4.1
3.2
HUL
Neutral
830
-
179,558
34,940
38,957
17.5
17.7
20.8
24.7
39.9
33.6
44.4
35.5
110.5
114.2
4.9
4.4
ITC
Buy
296
359
237,772
36,804
38,776
37.9
37.9
12.2
12.9
24.3
22.9
6.7
5.9
27.7
25.8
6.0
5.7
Marico
Neutral
237
-
30,558
6,551
7,766
15.7
16.0
10.4
12.5
22.8
19.0
6.6
5.5
33.2
32.4
4.6
3.9
Nestle*
Buy
5,012
6,646
48,327
11,291
12,847
22.2
22.3
158.9
184.6
31.5
27.2
16.5
14.8
55.0
57.3
4.1
3.6
Tata Global
Buy
104
144
6,535
8,635
9,072
9.8
9.9
6.5
7.6
15.9
13.6
1.6
1.5
6.8
7.4
0.7
0.7
IT
HCL Tech^
Buy
812
1,038
114,552
42,038
47,503
21.2
21.5
51.5
57.7
15.8
14.1
3.4
2.6
21.5
18.8
2.3
1.9
Infosys
Buy
1,084
1,347
248,931
61,850
69,981
27.5
27.5
59.4
65.7
18.2
16.5
3.9
3.3
21.2
20.1
3.3
2.8
TCS
Buy
2,182
2,854
429,928
108,487
122,590
28.3
28.5
122.8
138.4
17.8
15.8
6.8
6.1
38.0
38.9
3.6
3.1
Tech Mahindra
Buy
415
530
40,148
26,524
29,177
16.2
17.0
28.8
33.6
14.4
12.4
2.8
2.4
19.3
19.1
1.3
1.1
Wipro
Buy
520
680
128,446
50,808
56,189
23.7
23.8
37.3
40.7
13.9
12.8
2.7
2.4
19.2
17.7
2.0
1.6
Media
D B Corp
Buy
307
356
5,640
2,241
2,495
27.8
27.9
21.8
25.6
14.1
12.0
3.7
3.3
26.7
28.5
2.5
2.2
HT Media
Neutral
79
-
1,829
2,495
2,603
11.2
11.2
7.3
8.6
10.8
9.1
0.9
0.8
7.4
8.1
0.2
0.2
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
149
189
4,879
2,170
2,355
27.2
26.2
8.9
9.9
16.8
15.1
3.5
3.1
20.9
20.5
2.1
2.0
Sun TV Network
Neutral
321
-
12,636
2,779
3,196
70.2
70.5
22.8
27.3
14.1
11.8
3.5
3.1
26.7
28.3
4.3
3.7
Hindustan Media
Neutral
260
-
1,908
920
1,031
20.0
20.0
19.2
20.9
13.5
12.5
2.2
1.9
16.4
15.3
1.6
1.4
Ventures
Metals & Mining
Coal India
Buy
311
380
196,565
76,167
84,130
19.9
22.3
22.4
25.8
13.9
12.1
5.0
4.9
35.5
41.0
1.9
1.7
Hind. Zinc
Accumulate
160
175
67,690
14,641
14,026
50.4
50.4
17.7
16.0
9.1
10.0
1.4
1.3
16.2
13.2
2.2
2.1
Hindalco
Neutral
69
-
14,176
104,356
111,186
8.7
9.5
6.7
11.1
10.2
6.2
0.4
0.4
3.5
5.9
0.7
0.6
JSW Steel
Neutral
1,125
-
27,197
42,308
45,147
16.4
20.7
(10.3)
49.5
22.7
1.3
1.2
(1.0)
5.6
1.7
1.6
NMDC
Neutral
81
-
32,253
8,237
10,893
46.6
44.5
10.0
11.7
8.2
7.0
0.9
0.8
12.5
13.0
3.7
2.8
SAIL
Neutral
35
-
14,455
45,915
53,954
7.2
10.5
1.5
4.4
23.2
8.0
0.3
0.3
2.3
4.1
1.0
0.9
Vedanta
Neutral
71
-
20,931
71,445
81,910
26.2
26.3
12.9
19.2
5.5
3.7
0.4
0.3
7.2
8.9
0.7
0.6
Tata Steel
Neutral
249
-
24,193
126,760
137,307
8.9
11.3
6.4
23.1
39.2
10.8
0.8
0.8
2.0
7.1
0.8
0.7
Oil & Gas
Cairn India
Neutral
118
-
22,152
11,323
12,490
49.4
51.0
20.7
20.7
5.7
5.7
0.4
0.4
6.4
6.1
1.0
0.4
GAIL
Neutral
305
-
38,631
64,856
70,933
9.1
9.6
24.0
28.9
12.7
10.6
1.1
1.0
8.8
9.6
0.8
0.7
ONGC
Neutral
194
-
166,062
154,564
167,321
36.8
37.4
28.6
32.5
6.8
6.0
0.9
0.8
12.7
13.5
1.3
1.2
Petronet LNG
Neutral
234
-
17,584
29,691
31,188
5.8
6.2
12.8
13.4
18.3
17.5
2.7
2.4
15.8
14.8
0.7
0.6
Indian Oil Corp
Buy
368
455
89,264
359,607
402,760
5.9
6.1
42.5
48.7
8.7
7.5
1.2
1.0
14.1
14.4
0.4
0.3
Stock Watch
March 01, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Oil & Gas
Reliance Industries
Buy
967
1,150
313,104
304,775
344,392
12.6
13.4
91.3
102.6
10.6
9.4
1.2
1.1
11.8
12.0
1.0
0.8
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
618
-
11,653
3,274
3,802
26.9
19.4
35.0
28.7
17.7
21.5
7.8
5.9
55.6
31.2
3.5
3.0
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
655
856
38,314
14,923
17,162
22.0
23.0
35.7
42.8
18.4
15.3
5.4
4.1
34.0
30.2
2.9
2.5
Aventis*
Neutral
4,305
-
9,916
2,082
2,371
17.4
20.8
118.2
151.5
36.4
28.4
5.3
4.3
19.9
25.5
4.4
3.7
Cadila Healthcare
Accumulate
315
352
32,227
10,224
11,840
21.0
22.0
14.6
17.6
21.6
17.9
5.9
4.6
30.8
29.0
3.2
2.7
Cipla
Buy
515
605
41,374
13,979
16,447
20.2
18.6
25.7
27.5
20.0
18.7
3.3
2.8
17.6
16.1
3.0
2.5
Dr Reddy's
Buy
3,031
3,933
51,694
16,838
19,575
25.0
23.1
167.5
178.8
18.1
17.0
3.8
3.2
23.1
20.4
3.0
2.5
Dishman Pharma
Neutral
298
-
2,408
1,733
1,906
21.5
21.5
17.0
19.9
17.6
15.0
1.8
1.6
10.5
11.2
1.9
1.6
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
3,156
-
26,732
2,870
3,158
20.0
22.1
59.5
68.3
53.0
46.2
15.7
16.1
28.5
34.3
8.8
8.1
Indoco Remedies
Neutral
271
-
2,494
1,033
1,199
15.9
18.2
9.4
13.6
28.8
19.9
4.3
3.6
15.7
19.7
2.5
2.2
Ipca labs
Buy
565
900
7,131
3,363
3,909
12.9
18.6
13.4
28.0
42.2
20.2
3.0
2.6
7.4
14.0
2.4
2.1
Lupin
Neutral
1,752
-
78,945
13,092
16,561
25.0
27.0
50.4
68.3
34.8
25.7
7.2
5.7
22.8
24.7
5.7
4.4
Sun Pharma
Accumulate
855
950
205,782
28,163
32,610
25.8
30.7
17.4
26.9
49.1
31.8
4.7
4.0
13.0
16.6
6.8
5.6
Power
Tata Power
Neutral
57
-
15,498
35,923
37,402
22.6
22.8
4.1
5.2
14.1
11.1
1.1
1.0
7.5
9.3
1.4
1.3
NTPC
Buy
120
146
98,698
87,271
99,297
23.5
23.5
11.8
13.3
10.2
9.0
1.1
1.1
11.5
12.2
2.2
1.9
Power Grid
Buy
130
170
68,063
20,702
23,361
86.7
86.4
12.1
13.2
10.8
9.9
1.6
1.4
15.6
15.1
8.2
7.7
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
317
-
126,618
101,748
109,191
32.1
31.7
12.0
12.5
26.4
25.3
1.8
1.7
6.9
6.7
1.9
1.7
Idea Cellular
Neutral
104
-
37,607
34,282
36,941
32.0
31.5
5.9
6.2
17.7
16.9
1.6
1.5
9.9
9.3
1.7
1.6
zOthers
Abbott India
Neutral
4,807
-
10,214
2,715
3,153
14.5
14.1
134.3
152.2
35.8
31.6
8.9
7.4
27.4
25.6
3.5
2.9
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
158
237
1,593
4,719
5,287
5.2
5.8
8.6
12.7
18.4
12.5
2.1
1.9
11.4
14.8
0.3
0.3
Finolex Cables
Neutral
238
-
3,635
2,520
2,883
12.2
12.0
12.7
14.2
18.8
16.7
2.6
2.3
13.6
13.5
1.2
1.0
Goodyear India*
Buy
446
582
1,028
1,800
1,600
11.7
11.5
58.7
52.9
7.6
8.4
1.7
1.5
24.6
18.7
0.3
0.3
Hitachi
Neutral
986
-
2,682
1,779
2,081
7.8
8.8
21.8
33.4
45.2
29.5
7.3
5.9
17.4
22.1
1.6
1.3
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
257
-
4,657
1,620
1,847
11.5
11.5
7.3
8.5
35.3
30.4
4.6
4.2
13.3
14.4
2.7
2.3
MRF
Buy
32,429
45,575
13,754
20,316
14,488
21.4
21.1
5,488.0
3,798.0
5.9
8.5
2.0
1.6
41.1
21.2
0.6
0.8
Page Industries
Neutral
9,892
-
11,034
1,929
2,450
19.8
20.1
229.9
299.0
43.0
33.1
19.0
13.2
52.1
47.1
5.7
4.5
Relaxo Footwears
Neutral
388
-
4,652
1,767
2,152
12.3
12.5
19.3
25.1
20.1
15.5
4.9
3.8
27.7
27.8
2.7
2.2
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
960
1,354
900
1,636
1,815
11.5
11.5
89.9
104.1
10.7
9.2
1.8
1.5
17.9
17.8
0.7
0.6
Styrolution ABS India*
Neutral
495
-
870
1,271
1,440
8.6
9.2
32.0
41.1
15.5
12.1
1.6
1.4
10.7
12.4
0.7
0.6
Stock Watch
March 01, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
zOthers
TVS Srichakra
Buy
1,985
3,217
1,520
2,035
2,252
15.9
15.3
248.6
268.1
8.0
7.4
3.5
2.5
43.6
33.9
0.8
0.7
HSIL
Buy
240
302
1,735
2,123
2,384
16.1
16.5
15.0
18.9
16.0
12.7
1.2
1.2
8.0
9.4
1.2
1.0
Kirloskar Engines India
Neutral
210
-
3,039
2,403
2,554
8.6
9.9
9.2
10.5
22.9
20.0
2.2
2.1
9.7
10.7
0.9
0.8
Ltd
M M Forgings
Buy
392
614
473
511
615
21.7
21.6
43.1
55.8
9.1
7.0
1.7
1.4
19.9
21.2
1.1
0.8
Banco Products (India) Neutral
95
-
677
1,208
1,353
11.0
12.3
10.8
14.5
8.8
6.5
1.0
0.9
11.9
14.5
0.5
0.5
Competent Automobiles Neutral
126
-
78
1,040
1,137
3.2
3.1
25.7
28.0
4.9
4.5
0.7
0.6
15.0
14.3
0.1
0.1
Nilkamal
Neutral
976
-
1,457
1,871
2,031
10.7
10.5
63.2
69.8
15.5
14.0
2.5
2.2
17.6
16.6
0.8
0.7
Visaka Industries
Buy
93
144
147
1,086
1,197
9.9
10.3
21.5
28.8
4.3
3.2
0.4
0.4
9.6
11.6
0.4
0.3
Transport Corporation of
Neutral
226
-
1,719
2,830
3,350
8.8
9.0
14.4
18.3
15.7
12.3
2.4
2.1
15.4
17.1
0.7
0.6
India
Elecon Engineering
Neutral
43
-
468
1,359
1,482
10.3
13.7
0.8
3.9
53.5
11.0
0.9
0.8
1.6
7.8
0.7
0.6
Surya Roshni
Buy
124
201
542
2,992
3,223
8.1
8.4
14.7
18.3
8.4
6.7
0.8
0.7
9.7
11.0
0.5
0.4
MT Educare
Neutral
140
-
557
286
366
18.3
17.7
7.7
9.4
18.1
14.9
3.8
3.3
20.2
21.1
1.8
1.4
Radico Khaitan
Buy
95
156
1,267
1,517
1,635
12.7
13.4
5.8
7.1
16.3
13.4
1.4
1.3
8.6
9.6
1.3
1.2
Garware Wall Ropes
Buy
279
473
610
862
974
11.2
11.2
24.9
29.6
11.2
9.4
1.7
1.5
15.1
15.4
0.7
0.6
Wonderla Holidays
Neutral
352
-
1,989
206
308
44.0
43.6
9.0
12.9
39.1
27.3
5.3
4.8
13.7
17.8
9.6
6.4
Linc Pen & Plastics
Accumulate
174
185
257
340
371
8.3
8.9
10.8
13.2
16.1
13.2
2.6
2.2
16.0
17.1
0.8
0.7
The Byke Hospitality
Neutral
151
-
605
222
287
20.5
20.5
5.6
7.6
26.8
20.0
5.0
4.1
18.9
20.8
2.8
2.1
Interglobe Aviation
Neutral
812
-
29,270
17,022
21,122
20.7
14.5
63.9
53.7
12.7
15.1
19.1
15.6
149.9
103.2
1.8
1.4
Coffee Day Enterprises
Neutral
222
-
4,574
2,692
2,964
17.0
18.6
-
4.7
-
46.9
2.7
2.6
0.2
5.5
2.1
2.0
Ltd
Navneet Education
Neutral
83
-
1,988
998
1,062
24.1
24.0
5.8
6.1
14.5
13.7
3.2
2.8
22.0
20.6
2.1
2.0
Navkar Corporation
Buy
152
265
2,165
365
436
38.3
37.5
5.6
5.9
26.9
25.8
1.7
1.6
6.3
6.1
6.7
5.8
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on February 29, 2016
Market Outlook
March 01, 2016
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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