IPO Note | Commodity Exchange
February 22, 2012
Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX)
SUBSCRIBE
Issue Open: February 22, 2012
A Gold(en) Opportunity
Issue Close: February 24, 2012
Sustainable competitive position: Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. (MCX)
Issue Details
is a leading commodities exchange, which received permanent recognition from
Government of India on September 26, 2003. The company reported a market
Face Value: `10
share of 87.3% as of December 2011. MCX is also the fifth largest commodity
Present Eq. Paid-up Capital: `51.0cr
futures exchange globally in terms of the number of contracts. As of June 2011,
Offer Size*: 0.64cr Shares
MCX was the largest silver exchange, the second largest gold, copper and natural
gas exchange and the third largest crude oil exchange for this period globally.
Post Eq. Paid-up Capital: `51.0cr
Growth strategy in place: MCX has introduced a variety of new commodity futures
Issue size (amount):** `553-663cr
contracts; and since inception, the number of products offered by the company
Price Band: `860-1,032
has grown from 15 to 49 as of December 31, 2011. MCX has 2,153 members
Post-issue implied mkt cap**: `4,386cr-
5,263cr
nationwide with over 296,000 terminals, including CTCL spread over 1,572 cities
Promoters holding Pre-Issue: 31.2%
and towns in India. The company intends to continue to increase the number of
participants by introducing new products on its exchange by expanding to more
Promoters holding Post-Issue: 26.0%
geographical areas, which is expected to drive growth going ahead. Regulatory
Note:* 250,000 reserved for employees;
**At the lower and upper price band, respectively
changes can also lent a fillip to MCX as currently option contracts are not allowed
to be traded in commodity. Any changes in favor of MCX can lead to a major
increase in revenue and profitability going ahead.
Book Building
QIBs
Up to 50%
Outlook and valuation: MCX currently has zero debt on its book, and major
capex to fuel growth has already been incurred by the company. Secondly, the
Non-Institutional
At least 15%
company reported investment and cash worth `1,324cr at the end of 9MFY2012,
Retail
At least 35%
which works out to `260/share. On an annualized basis, the stock will be trading
at 15.1x and 18.1x at the lower and upper band on FY2012E earnings,
respectively, which we believe is fair compared to global peers, which trade at
Post Issue Shareholding Pattern
18x-19x TTM earnings; further, the recent off-market deals value MCX’s Indian
Promoters Group
26.0
peers, NSE and BSE, at 22x-24x 9MFY2012 annualized earnings. We believe
MF/Banks/Indian
MCX being the only major commodity exchange in India and the world’s fifth
FIs/FIIs/Public & Others
74.0
largest exchange can witness strong growth in revenue and profitability going
ahead, which makes its valuation much more attractive than global peers. Hence,
we recommend Subscribe to the issue on account of its relatively fair valuations.
Key financials
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
9MFY2012
Net Sales
212
287
369
402
% chg
-
35.3
28.4
9.1
Net Profit
159
221
176
218
% chg
-
39.0
(20.2)
23.6
Adj. Net Profit
67
74
171
210
% chg
-
9.0
132.0
22.9
EBITDA Margin (%)
36.0
49.3
52.0
64.8
FDEPS (`)
38.9
54.1
34.6
42.7
P/E (x) Lower End
22.1
15.9
24.9
20.1
Sharan lillaney
P/E (x) Upper End
26.5
19.1
29.9
24.1
022 - 39357800 Ext: 6811
RoE (%)
32.2
31.7
20.8
20.3
Source: Company, Angel Research Note: Net profit adjusted for sale of investments.
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
1
MCX | IPO Note
Company background
Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. (MCX) is a leading commodities exchange
in India based on value of commodity futures contracts traded. A
de-mutualized exchange, MCX received permanent recognition from the
Government of India on September 26, 2003, to facilitate nationwide online
trading, clearing and settlement operations of commodities futures transactions.
The total value of commodity futures contracts traded on MCX in 9MFY2012 was
`119,807bn. Further, MCX has reported a 45% CAGR in the past four years.
According to data maintained by the FMC, these amounts represented 87.3%
(9MFY2012), 82.4% (FY2011), 82.3% (FY2010) and 87.4% (FY2009) of the Indian
commodity futures industry in terms of the value of commodity futures contracts
traded. Currently, MCX offers trading in 49 commodity futures, including bullion,
ferrous and non-ferrous metals, energy and agriculture. The same underlying
physical asset traded under different contract specifications is regarded as a
separate commodity future. As of December 31, 2011, MCX had 2,153 members,
with over 296,000 terminals, including CTCL spread over 1,572 cities and towns
across India. Silver, gold, crude oil and copper dominate the value with ~90% of
total value traded.
Exhibit 1: Highest market share amongst local peers
Source: Company, Angel Research
Details of the issue
The IPO comprises an issue of 6.4mn equity shares of face value `10 each to the
public, with a reservation of 0.25mn equity shares for subscription by eligible
employees. The issue shall constitute 12.6% of the post-issue paid-up capital. MCX
has fixed the issue price band at `860-1,032 per share, valuing the company at
US$877mn to US$1,052mn (`4,386cr to `5,263cr). The key shareholders who are
tendering their shares are Financial Technologies, promoter of MCX, with 2.6mn
shares, State Bank of India with 2.1mn shares, and GLG Financials Fund with
0.8mn shares. The remaining 0.9mn shares are being offered by Alexandra, Bank
of Baroda, ICICI Lombard and Corporation Bank. MCX will not get any money
from this IPO as it is an offer for sale.
February 22, 2012
2
MCX | IPO Note
Investment arguments
Market leader in the commodity futures industry
MCX is a leading commodity futures exchange in India in terms of value of
commodity futures contracts traded in metals, energy and certain agricultural
commodities. According to FMC, the total value of commodity futures contracts
traded on MCX for the nine months ended December 31, 2011, FY2011 and
FY2010 constituted
87.3%,
82.4% and
82.3%, respectively, of the Indian
commodity futures industry during those periods. Among national commodities
exchanges in India, MCX’s market share based on the total value of commodities
traded in futures markets for the nine months ended December 31, 2011, for
gold, crude oil, silver, copper and natural gas futures contracts was approximately
97.1%,
94.8%,
98.5%,
94.9% and 99.9%, respectively. (Source: Information
derived from FMC April - December 2011 data). MCX is the fifth largest commodity
futures exchange globally, among all commodity exchanges considered in the FIA
survey, in terms of the number of contracts traded and were among the leading
commodity exchanges in the world in terms of trading volumes of certain
commodities. Based on the comparison of the trading volumes of the exchange
with leading global commodity futures exchanges in the world, for CY2010 and
the six months ended June 30, 2011, MCX is the largest silver exchange, the
second largest gold, copper and natural gas exchange and the third largest crude
oil exchange for this period.
Exhibit 2: Top ranked contracts by volume in the world
Exhibit 3: 5th largest commodity exchange by volume
Commodity futures contracts
World Rank
Rank Particulars
1HCY2010
1HCY2011
Growth yoy
MCX Crude Oil Futures
6
1 CME Group
299
353
18.1
MCX Silver Mini Futures
7
2 Zhengzhou CX
227
218
(4.0)
MCX Copper Futures
9
3 ICE Group
134
159
18.4
MCX Silver Futures
10
4 Shanghai FE
300
129
(57.2)
MCX Silver Micro Futures
11
5 MCX
90
128
41.5
Source: Company, Angel Research
Source: Company, Angel Research
February 22, 2012
3
MCX | IPO Note
Growth strategy going ahead
New products and services to drive growth
MCX has introduced a variety of new commodity futures contracts since inception.
The number of products offered by MCX has grown from 15 as of March 31,
2004, to 49 as of December 31, 2011. The company is expected to continue to
focus on offering futures trading in commodities, which are significant in the Indian
and global contexts, and will continue to offer trading in commodities through
contracts that will be customized to meet the needs of Indian markets, such as
Gold Mini and Gold Petal contracts, which are aimed at local retail investors.
Exhibit 4: Strong volume growth in 9MFY2012
Commodity
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
9MFY2012
Gold Guinea
3
4
4
8
Gold
15
11
11
10
Gold Mini
14
13
15
23
Source: Company, Angel Research
Increasing market presence and participants
As of December 31, 2011, MCX has 2,153 members nationwide with over
296,000 terminals including CTCL spread over 1,572 cities and towns in India. It
intends to continue to increase the number of participants by introducing new
products on its exchange by expanding to more geographical areas and by
continuing its efforts to disseminate knowledge and information about the
commodity futures industry. Along with its alliance partners, MCX plans to establish
and grow its presence in additional regions across India.
February 22, 2012
4
MCX | IPO Note
Capitalize on changes proposed in regulations
MCX also intends to capitalize on changes proposed in regulations governing the
Indian commodities derivatives industry, permitting trading in options and
intangibles, including indices. For example, it has already developed the software
technology infrastructure and other in-house expertise to launch trading in
commodities options when such trading is permitted to reduce the lead time to the
market. Similarly, if and when trading in commodity indices is permitted, investors
will be able to trade in MCX’s composite commodity index, MCX-COMDEX and
other indices that it has developed.
Increasing revenue from existing products
MCX intends to develop new revenue sources that are not transaction-driven.
We believe market data products and information offerings have the potential to
become a source of revenue for MCX, as is the case for various leading exchanges
in India and the rest of the world. MCX currently has such arrangements with
Bloomberg Finance L.P., NewsWire 18 Private Limited, IQN Data Solutions Private
Limited, Reuters India Private Limited, Interactive Data (Europe) Limited and
TickerPlant Limited. MCX aims to further develop its market data offerings by
integrating proprietary information generated by the exchange into new market
data products designed to meet the needs of a higher number of customers.
Scalable technology platform and business model
We believe the company’s technology platform and business model are highly
scalable and have the potential to generate better margins at greater volumes.
MCX plans to structure its business costs based on its historical and expected
growth. Consequently, the company has made significant investments in
developing fixed operating infrastructure, including technology systems, to support
anticipated growth and increased demand for its products. MCX’s current
technology infrastructure is sufficient to handle daily trading volumes of up to
10,000,000 trades a day. Increased trading activity on the exchange would result
in higher profitability. Further, the company intends to increase the use of data
generated from commodity futures contracts traded on the exchange to capitalize
on opportunities in market data products and information dissemination. We
believe the company’s overall business model is highly scalable and offers growth
potential with limited incremental costs.
February 22, 2012
5
MCX | IPO Note
Key concerns
Decline in volumes can lead to lower revenue
MCX’s business depends, in part, on its ability to maintain and increase
its members and turnover on the exchange and the resultant income from
transaction fees. Income from transaction fees depends on the average daily
turnover generated by members and is, therefore, correlated with the value of
commodity futures contracts. Any decline in the trading volume or the number of
members trading on the exchange could lead to a decline in the income from
transaction fees.
Decline in commodity prices can directly lead to lower revenue
Transaction fees charged by MCX is directly related to the value of commodity
futures contracts traded on the exchange; hence, income and results of operations
could be adversely affected by any decline in total value of commodity futures
contracts for these commodities traded on the exchange and their volumes. For the
nine months ended December
31,
2011, the value of contracts of four
commodities traded on the exchange, namely silver, gold, crude oil and copper,
accounted for 38.2%, 27.5%, 15.9% and 8.8%, respectively, of the total value of
commodity futures contracts traded.
Exhibit 5: Revenue dependent on four major commodities (9MFY2012)
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Segment revenue of the total revenue
Competition may lead to margin compression
The derivatives exchange industry is generally highly competitive. MCX’s ability to
maintain and enhance its competitiveness will have a direct impact on its business,
financial condition and results of operations. There are currently 21 associations
recognized by Government of India that are authorized to organize and regulate
futures trading in various commodities. Of these, MCX faces competition mainly
from national commodity exchanges such as NCDEX, NMCE, ICEX and ACE,
which have a combined market share of only 12.4%.
February 22, 2012
6
MCX | IPO Note
Policy paralysis could hamper growth strategies
Under the current regulatory environment, foreign institutional investors, banks
and mutual funds cannot trade on commodity exchanges. Further, trading in
options in commodities futures is prohibited in India. If changes in policy are not
brought into force in a timely manner, or at all, MCX’s ability to introduce new
products on the exchange and implementation on new growth strategy could be
adversely affected.
Outlook and valuation
MCX currently has zero debt on its book, and major capex to fuel growth has
already been incurred by the company. Secondly, the company reported
investment and cash worth `1,324cr at the end of 9MFY2012, which works out to
`260/share. On an annualized basis, the stock will be trading at 15.1x and 18.1x
at the lower and upper band on FY2012E earnings, respectively, which we believe
is fair compared to global peers, which trade at 18x-19x TTM earnings; further,
the recent off-market deals value MCX’s Indian peers, NSE and BSE, at 22x-24x
9MFY2012 annualized earnings. We believe MCX being the only major
commodity exchange in India and the world’s fifth largest exchange can witness
strong growth in revenue and profitability going ahead, which makes its valuation
much more attractive than global peers. Hence, we recommend Subscribe to the
issue on account of its relatively fair valuations.
February 22, 2012
7
MCX | IPO Note
Industry Overview
The Global Commodity Futures Market
There are over 30 commodity futures and options exchanges worldwide that trade
commodities ranging from energy, metals, agriculture to livestock in many countries
including the United States, China, Japan, Malaysia and the United Kingdom.
(Source: Futures Industry Association (“FIA”), FI magazine September 2011 (“FIA
Report”)). According to the FIA Report, strong levels of growth were seen in the
trading volume of commodity futures and options, especially those relating to non-
precious metals, agricultural, energy and precious metals commodities.
Metals Futures
The metal futures contracts include a wide variety of metal commodities, which are
typically classified into precious and non-precious metals. Precious metals include
gold, silver and platinum. Non-precious metals include lead, aluminium, copper
and zinc. Gold is the most popular precious metal in metal futures contracts
trading. Trading in gold futures provides individual investors with an easy and
convenient alternative to the traditional means of investing in gold, such as bullion,
coins, and mining stocks.
Energy Futures
Energy futures contracts include energy commodities such as crude oil, natural
gas, heating oil, gasoline and coal. Over the past several years, the markets for
energy commodities trading have been characterised by rapid growth and high
liquidity, which we believe is due to several factors, including 1) increased market
acceptance of the value of commodity futures as risk management tools;2)
increased price fluctuation in crude oil, partially created by geopolitical conditions
in oil producing 3) increased price fluctuation in natural gas, partially created by
weather conditions and increased demand in emerging economies; 4) increased
awareness of the ability to obtain or hedge market exposure through the use of
futures and options contracts.
The Indian Commodities Market
India has over 7,000 regulated agricultural markets, or mandis, and the majority of the
nation‘s agricultural production is consumed domestically, according to the Agricultural
Marketing Information Network (Source: Agricultural Marketing Information Network
official website). There are currently 21 commodity exchanges recognised by FMC in
India offering trading in over 60 commodity futures with the approval of FMC. The
total value of commodities traded on commodity futures exchanges in India for the first
nine months ended December 31, 2011 was ` 137,228.55 billion.
Industry Growth in India
Commodity futures trading in India has grown since the Government of India
issued a notification on April 1, 2003 permitting futures trading in commodities.
The total value of commodities futures traded in India in the fiscal 2011 was `
119,489.42 billion, representing growth of approximately 90-fold from the value
of commodity futures contracts traded in the fiscal 2004, which was ` 1,293.67
billion. Commodity futures trading volumes have risen at a compound annual
growth rate of 90.9% between fiscal 2004 and fiscal 2011.
February 22, 2012
8
MCX | IPO Note
Income statement
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
9MFY2012
Income
Transaction fees
186.1
264.1
349.5
386.8
% chg
41.9
32.4
10.7
Membership Admission fees
10.5
7.0
3.5
4.1
% chg
(33.8)
(49.5)
17.7
Annual subscription fees
13.6
13.6
13.5
9.9
% chg
0.2
(1.1)
(26.7)
Terminal charges
2.2
2.7
2.4
1.5
% chg
21.5
(13.0)
(36.7)
Income from operations
212.4
287.4
368.9
402.3
% chg
35.3
28.4
9.1
Staff costs
25.4
21.8
26.4
20.1
% Net Sales
12.0
7.6
7.2
5.0
Administration and other operating exp.
110.6
124.1
150.7
121.7
% Net Sales
52.1
43.2
40.9
30.2
Total Expenditure
136.0
145.8
177.1
141.8
EBITDA
76.4
141.6
191.8
260.5
Margin
36.0
49.3
52.0
64.8
Depreciation/ Amortisation
20.0
24.7
24.7
20.4
EBIT
56.5
116.8
167.1
240.1
Interest
0.2
-
-
-
Other Income
153.4
206.3
78.7
72.2
Net profit before tax
209.7
323.1
245.8
312.2
Provision for tax
52.2
102.4
72.7
91.7
%PBT
24.9
31.7
29.6
29.4
Current tax
45.3
100.4
70.4
91.4
Prior period tax
-
-
0.2
(2.7)
Deferred tax
6.3
1.9
2.1
3.0
Wealth tax
-
-
-
-
Fringe benefit tax
0.6
-
-
-
Net profit after tax before share of profit of Asso.
157.4
220.7
173.1
220.5
Margin
74.1
76.8
46.9
54.8
Share of profit of Associate
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.1
Impact of prior period adjustments
1.4
(0.2)
2.9
(2.7)
Net profit
158.8
220.8
176.3
218.0
Margin
74.8
76.8
47.8
54.2
% chg
39.0
(20.2)
13.4
Exceptional Items
91.4
147.3
5.6
8.2
Adj. Net profit
67.5
73.6
170.6
209.8
% chg
9.0
132.0
22.9
Margin
31.8
25.6
46.3
52.1
Basic EPS
38.9
54.1
34.6
42.7
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Net profit adjusted
for sale
of property
which in
non- recurring in nature.
February 22, 2012
9
MCX | IPO Note
Balance sheet
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
9MFY2012
Gross block
259
268
292
310
Less : Accumulated depreciation/ amortisation
51
75
96
117
Net block
209
193
195
193
Add: Capital work-in-progress
-
-
-
-
Total Fixed Assets
209
193
195
193
Investments (B)(Refer Annexure X)
470
617
824
1,096
Current Assets, Loans and Advances
Sundry debtors
27
30
49
49
Cash and bank balances
406
270
331
229
Other Current Assets
9
8
11
10
Loans and advances
45
111
90
96
Total Current Assets
487
419
481
384
Liabilities and Provisions:
Current liabilities and provisions
663
521
639
583
Total Curretn Liabilities
663
521
639
583
Total Net Current Assets
(176)
(102)
(158)
(199)
Deferred tax liability (net) (E)
9
11
13
16
Total Assets
494
697
849
1,074
Share capital
41
41
51
51
Stock Option Outstanding Account
-
-
-
-
Reserves and Surplus
-
-
-
-
Securities Premium
226
227
217
217
Amount recoverable from MCX ESOP Trust
(22)
(17)
(11)
(4)
Settlement Guarantee Fund
2
2
2
2
General Reserves
39
61
78
78
Balance in Profit and Loss Account
208
383
512
730
Minority interest
-
-
-
-
Total Liabilities
494
697
849
1,074
February 22, 2012
10
MCX | IPO Note
Cash Flow Statement
FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 9MFY2012
Cash flow from operating activities
Net profit before tax, as restated
2,109
3,231
2,458
3,122
Depreciation/Amortization
200
247
247
204
Interest expense
2
-
-
-
Dividend from investments
(260)
(144)
(323)
(309)
Diminution in value of investments
72
6
-
3
Profit on sale of investments
(914)
(1,473)
(56)
(82)
Loss on sale of assets or assets scrapped
3
1
13
1
Advertisement expense
-
6
-
-
Interest income
(171)
(220)
(174)
(140)
Operating profit before working capital chg.
1,040
1,654
2,165
2,801
(Inc.)/decrease in trade and other receivables
(176)
(566)
(56)
119
(Decrease)/inc.in trade payables and prov.
2,245
(1,453)
1,136
(462)
Cash generated from / (used in) operations
3,109
(365)
3,245
2,458
Tax paid
(256)
(553)
(546)
(821)
Net cash generated from / operating activities
2,853
(919)
2,700
1,637
Cash flow from investing activities
Additions to fixed assets
(757)
(96)
(312)
(187)
Deletion / Adjustment to Fixed Assets
34
9
27
5
Purchase of investments
(110,907)(99,346) (109,269) 105,446.65)
Redemption/sale of investments
110,145
99,421
106,784
103,699
Dividend from investments
260
144
323
309
Interest received
97
234
139
157
Cash generated from /
(1,129)
366
(2,309)
1,464.55)
(used in) investing activities
Tax Paid
(242)
(489)
(18)
(9)
Net Cash generated from /
(1,371)
(123)
(2,326)
1,473.29)
investing activities
Cash flow from financing activities
Proceeds from:
Equity share capital
16
-
-
-
Securities premium
213
-
-
-
Minority Shareholders of Subsidiary Co.
-
-
-
-
Share issue expenses adjusted in
(63)
-
-
-
Securities Premium Account
Dividend paid (including tax thereon)
(47)
(239)
(238)
(296)
Interest paid
(2)
(0)
(0)
(0)
Net cash generated from /financing activities
116
(239)
(238)
(296)
Net cash (outflow) / inflow during the year
1,598
(1,280)
135
(132)
Net incr./ (decr.) in cash and cash equivalents
1,598
(1,280)
135
(132)
February 22, 2012
11
MCX | IPO Note
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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February 22, 2012
12
MCX | IPO Note
6th Floor, Ackruti Star, Central Road, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 39357800
Research Team
Fundamental:
Sarabjit Kour Nangra
VP-Research, Pharmaceutical
Vaibhav Agrawal
VP-Research, Banking
Shailesh Kanani
Infrastructure
Bhavesh Chauhan
Metals & Mining
Sharan Lillaney
Mid-cap
V Srinivasan
Research Associate (Cement, Power)
Yaresh Kothari
Research Associate (Automobile)
Hemang Thaker
Research Associate (Capital Goods)
Nitin Arora
Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate)
Ankita Somani
Research Associate (IT, Telecom)
Varun Varma
Research Associate (Banking)
Saurabh Taparia
Research Associate (Cement, Power)
Technicals:
Shardul Kulkarni
Sr. Technical Analyst
Sameet Chavan
Technical Analyst
Sacchitanand Uttekar
Technical Analyst
Derivatives:
Siddarth Bhamre
Head - Derivatives
Institutional Sales Team:
Mayuresh Joshi
VP - Institutional Sales
Hiten Sampat
Sr. A.V.P- Institution sales
Meenakshi Chavan
Dealer
Gaurang Tisani
Dealer
Akshay Shah
Sr. Executive
Production Team:
Simran Kaur
Research Editor
Dilip Patel
Production
CSO & Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093.Tel.: (022) 3083 7700. Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No: INB010996539 / PMS Regd Code: PM/INP000001546 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / NSE Sebi Regn Nos: Cash: INB231279838 /
NSE F&O: INF231279838/Currency: INE231279838 / MCX Currency Sebi Regn No: INE261279838 / Member ID: 10500 / Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302
February 22, 2012
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