Technical Research | December 12, 2011
Daily Technical Report
Sensex (16213) / NIFTY (4867)
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
On Friday, our benchmark indices opened with a downside
gap in line with the global cues and traded with immense
volatility throughout the session to close marginally above
the mentioned support level of 15962 / 4866. On the
sectoral front, Capital Goods, Auto and Oil & Gas counters
contributed heavily in Friday’s sharp correction. The
advance decline ratio was in favour of declining counters.
(A=1040 D=1648). (Source -www.bseindia.com)
Formation
• The Weekly “20 EMA” is placed at 17000 / 5110 level.
• On the Daily chart, we are observing a negative
crossover in “3 & 8 EMA” as well as in “RSI” momentum
oscillator.
• The Daily chart depicts a “Spinning Top” formation
near 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the rise from
15478 to 17004 / 4639 to 5100.
Source: Falcon
Actionable points:
Trading strategy:
During the week markets opened on a quiet note and then
View
Neutral
as expected moved towards the strong resistance level of
Resistance levels
4913 - 5002 - 5100
17000 / 5110. However, strong selling pressure from the
Support level
4841 - 4754 - 4639
bears near this resistance level led the indices to close well
below the 16400 / 5000 mark. We are now observing a
On the other hand, if indices manage to sustain above
negative crossover in “3 & 8 EMA” and “RSI” oscillator on
16383 / 4913 level, then they are likely to bounce back
the Daily chart. On the contrary, a “Spinning Top”
towards 16863 / 5002 level. The weekly high of 17004 /
Japanese candlestick pattern on the Daily chart near 61.8%
5100 is likely to act as a strong resistance in the coming
Fibonacci retracement level of the rise from 15478 to
trading sessions.
17004 / 4639 to 5100 indicates uncertainty among bulls
The RBI monetary policy is scheduled on the 16th Dec. Thus
and bears. Thus, if indices sustain below Friday’s low of
we may witness increased volatility as the market
16142 / 4841 then we may witness further selling pressure
approaches the event. Traders are advised to trade with
and markets are likely to drift towards 15850 - 15478 /
caution and use strict stop losses.
4754 - 4639 levels.
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1
Technical Research | December 12, 2011
Bank Nifty Outlook - (8811)
Bank nifty opened with a downside gap and traded with
Exhibit 2: Bank Nifty Daily Chart
immense volatility to close marginally above the initial
opening level. We are witnessing a spinning top formation
near 61.8% retracement of the rise from 8240 - 9273 levels.
If index sustains above 8932 then the possibility cannot be
ruled out. In such a scenario the pullback may extend to
9010 - 9050 levels. On the downside, the low of the
spinning top 8690 is likely to act as support in coming
trading session. Immense selling pressure may be witnessed
on violation of the said support level and index may drift
towards 8490 level.
Actionable points:
View
Neutral
Resistance level
9010 - 9050
Support levels
8690 - 8490
Source: Falcon
Stock Recommendations:
Exhibit 3: Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. (NSE Cash)
Stock - Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. (NSE Cash)
Action - Buy
Last close
` 270.10
Buy Above
` 273
Stop Loss
` 190.45
Target
` 290
Justification
- On weekly chart, the stock has given
confirmation of “Bullish Harami” Japanese candle stick
pattern. We are witnessing positive crossover in “ADX (9)”
indicator on daily chart. Buy this stock ONLY above ` 273
Source: Falcon
for a target of ` 290 in coming 2-3 weeks.
Exhibit 3: Bata India Ltd. (December Futures)
Stock - Bata India Ltd. (December Futures)
Action - Sell
Last close
` 605.05
Sell Below
` 591.50
Stop Loss
` 613.80
Target
` 545
Justification - On daily chart the stock has given a trend line
break down with a breakaway gap. Faster time wise
correction of the previous impulsive wave, indicates further
weakness. Sell the stock ONLY below ` 591.5 for a target
of ` 545 in coming 1-2 weeks.
Source: Falcon
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2
Technical Research | December 12, 2011
Positive Bias:
Expected
Stock Name
CMP
5 Day EMA
20 Day EMA
Remarks
Target
IOC
270.10
267.5
271.1
284
View will change below 263
ABNUVO
917.65
909.4
905.9
975
View will change below 900
Negative Bias:
Expected
Stock Name
CMP
5 Day EMA
20 Day EMA
Remarks
Target
Bajaj-Auto
1670.35
1696.6
1653
1615
View will change above 1719
Wipro
404.95
400.7
384.1
384
View will change above 415
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3
Technical Research | December 12, 2011
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty 50 Stocks
SCRIPS
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
16,006
16,110
16,246
16,350
16,486
NIFTY
4,799
4,833
4,876
4,909
4,952
BANKNIFTY
8,569
8,690
8,811
8,932
9,053
ACC
1,136
1,150
1,174
1,188
1,212
AMBUJACEM
155
157
159
161
163
AXISBANK
960
976
994
1,010
1,029
BAJAJ-AUTO
1,619
1,645
1,682
1,707
1,744
BHARTIARTL
345
352
359
366
373
BHEL
256
260
264
268
272
BPCL
539
547
553
561
567
CAIRN
296
301
308
313
320
CIPLA
321
323
326
328
331
DLF
205
209
213
217
221
DRREDDY
1,505
1,539
1,569
1,603
1,633
GAIL
381
387
392
398
404
HCLTECH
398
403
409
414
420
HDFC
646
651
657
662
669
HDFCBANK
434
439
445
450
456
HEROMOTOCO
1,987
2,010
2,034
2,057
2,081
HINDALCO
122
127
131
137
141
HINDUNILVR
381
383
387
390
393
ICICIBANK
712
722
732
741
752
IDFC
107
108
111
112
115
INFY
2,624
2,667
2,703
2,747
2,783
ITC
193
195
197
199
201
JINDALSTEL
503
518
529
543
554
JPASSOCIAT
61
62
64
65
67
KOTAKBANK
466
477
486
497
505
LT
1,197
1,212
1,233
1,248
1,269
M&M
684
694
707
716
729
MARUTI
941
963
979
1,001
1,017
NTPC
160
163
166
168
171
ONGC
257
259
263
265
268
PNB
883
905
924
946
966
POWERGRID
96
98
98
99
100
RANBAXY
401
408
413
421
426
RCOM
72
74
75
78
79
RELCAPITAL
277
285
293
301
308
RELIANCE
742
749
759
766
777
RELINFRA
379
383
390
394
401
RPOWER
80
82
84
86
88
SAIL
80
82
84
85
88
SBIN
1,792
1,829
1,857
1,894
1,922
SESAGOA
170
172
175
177
179
SIEMENS
659
675
696
712
733
STER
98
100
101
103
104
SUNPHARMA
501
507
513
519
525
SUZLON
22
22
22
23
23
TATAMOTORS
177
180
183
186
189
TATAPOWER
92
94
95
97
99
TATASTEEL
384
391
398
404
411
TCS
1,150
1,161
1,172
1,183
1,194
WIPRO
395
400
406
411
418
Technical Research Team
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Technical Report
RESEARCH TEAM
Shardul Kulkarni
Head - Technicals
Sameet Chavan
Technical Analyst
Sacchitanand Uttekar
Technical Analyst
Mehul Kothari
Technical Analyst
Ankur Lakhotia
Technical Analyst
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