2QFY2017 Result Update | Agrichemical
November 7, 2016
United Phosphorus
NEUTRAL
CMP
`672
Performance Highlights
Target Price
-
Y/E March (` cr)
2QFY2017 1QFY2017
% chg (qoq) 2QFY2016
% chg (yoy)
Investment Period
-
Net sales
3,510
3452
1.7
3,275
7.2
Other income
8
66
-
(21)
-
Stock Info
Gross profit
1,483
1,852
(19.9)
1,347
10.1
Sector
Agrichemical
Operating profit
699
640
9.1bps
620
12.7bps
Market Cap (` cr)
34,083
Adj. net profit
430
430
0.1
344
25.2
Source: Company, Angel Research, 2QFY2017 and 2QFY2016 numbes include Advanta seed numbers
Net Debt (` cr)
1,113
Beta
1.0
For 2QFY2017, United Phosphorous (UPL) posted a growth of 7.2% yoy in sales to
52 Week High / Low
730/342
`3,510cr. The volume growth during the period was of 23% yoy, while price
Avg. Daily Volume
123,771
decrease contributed around 5% yoy. The exchange rate, on the other hand, had a
Face Value (`)
2
positive impact of 1% yoy. Including Advanta sales, the company posted sales of
BSE Sensex
27,274
`3510cr, posting a yoy growth of 7.2%. On the operating front, the gross margin
Nifty
8,434
(Including Advanta) came in at 42.3% (vs. 41.1% in 2QFY2016), which led the
Reuters Code
UNPO.BO
OPM to come in at 19.9% (vs. 18.9% in 2QFY2016). The company posted a 25.2%
yoy growth in its Adj. PAT for the quarter, excluding the extra-ordinaries and profits
Bloomberg Code
UNTP@IN
from associates and subsidiaries. The management has maintained guidance of
12-15% revenue growth (owing to presence in fast-growing countries) and 60-100bps
Shareholding Pattern (%)
improvement in EBITDA margin. We maintain our neutral rating on the stock.
Promoters
27.7
Quarterly highlights: For 2QFY2017, UPL posted a growth of 7.2% yoy in sales to
MF / Banks / Indian Fls
11.8
`3,510cr. The volume growth during the period was of 23% yoy, while price decrease
FII / NRIs / OCBs
53.7
contributed around 5% yoy. The exchange rate, on the other hand, had a positive impact
Indian Public / Others
6.7
of 1% yoy. The growth in the sales was driven by export markets like Latin America
(`1,317cr) which posted a yoy growth of 34.4%, while India (`1,026cr) which posted a yoy
Abs. (%)
3m 1yr
3yr
growth of 22.7%. Including Advanta sales, the company posted sales of `3510cr, posting a
yoy growth of 7.2%. On the operating front, the gross margin (Including Advanta) came in at
Sensex
(1.0)
3.2
29.1
42.3% (vs. 41.1% in 2QFY2016), which led the OPM to come in at 19.9% (vs. 18.9% in
UPL
14.6
48.2
300.4
2QFY2016). The company posted a growth of 25.2% yoy in its Adj. PAT for the quarter,
excluding the extra-ordinaries and profits from associates and subsidiaries.
3-year price chart
800
Outlook and Valuation: We expect UPL to post a CAGR of 25.9% and 17.7% in its
700
sales and PAT, respectively, over FY2016-18E. At the current market price, we
600
recommend a neutral rating on the stock.
500
400
Key financials (Consolidated)
300
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
200
Total revenue
11,911
13,083
16,516
20,722
100
0
% chg
12.6
9.8
26.2
25.5
Adj. profit
1,147
1,352
1,800
2,215
% chg
10.2
17.9
33.2
23.1
Source: Company, Angel Research
EBITDA (%)
18.3
18.5
17.5
17.5
EPS (`)
26.7
31.5
32.4
43.7
P/E (x)
26.0
22.1
21.5
15.9
P/BV (x)
5.1
4.4
4.3
3.5
RoE (%)
20.6
21.4
21.9
24.1
RoCE (%)
19.9
20.8
21.2
23.2
Sarabjit Kour Nangra
EV/Sales (x)
3.0
2.8
2.2
1.7
+91-22-3935 7800 ext. 6806
EV/EBITDA (x)
16.7
15.3
12.6
9.9
[email protected]
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of November 4, 2016, Includes Advanta sales
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
1
United Phosphorus | 2QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 2QFY2016 Performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
2QFY2017 1QFY2017
% chg (qoq) 2QFY2016
% chg (yoy) 1HFY2017 1HFY2016
% chg
Net sales
3,510
3,452
1.7
3,275
7.2
6,930
6,155
12.6
Other income
8
66
-
-21
-
82
184
(55.1)
Total income
3,518
3,518
(0.0)
3,254
8.1
7,012
6,338
10.6
Gross profit
1483
1852
(19.9)
1347
10.1
3335
3137
6.3
Gross margin (%)
42.3
53.6
41.1
48.1
51.0
Operating profit
699
640
9.1
620
12.7
1339
933
43.6
Operating margin (%)
19.9
18.6
18.9
19.3
15.2
Financial cost
106
106
0.0
68
55.9
212
229
Depreciation
169
169
(0.0)
155
9.0
338
311
8.6
PBT
432
432
0.0
376
14.9
872
577
51.2
Provision for taxation
2
3
(23.4)
34
(94.1)
5
109
(95.8)
PAT Before Exc. And MI
430
429
0.2
342
25.7
867
468
85.5
Minority Income/ ( Exp.)
2
(16)
(3)
(14)
(4)
Income from Associate/ (Exp)
2
23
(2)
25
(7)
Extra ordinary Income/( Exp.)
(28)
(28)
(17)
(56)
27
Reported PAT
402
402
0.0
325
23.7
804
465
72.9
Adjusted PAT
430
430
0.1
344
25.2
860
492
74.8
EPS (`)
8.5
10.0
8.0
20.1
11.5
Source: Company, Angel Research, 2QFY2017 and 1QFY2017 results include Advanta numbers, rest are excluding the same
Top-line growth mainly led by Latin America and India
For the quarter, the company posted sales (including Advanta sales) of `3,510cr
(vs. `3275cr in 2QFY2016), registering a yoy growth of 7.2%. Domestic sales
(`1,026cr) rose by 23% yoy, while exports, including related incentives (`2,632cr),
posted a growth of 14.5% yoy.
The growth was aided by volume growth of 23% yoy while pricing de-grew by 5%
yoy. A 1% yoy positive impact on account of the exchange rate proportionately
weighed on growth.
In terms of geographies, RoW (`599cr) posted a 2.0% yoy growth, while India
(`1,026cr) posted a 23% yoy growth, during the quarter. Europe (`341cr), on the
other hand, de-grew by 5% yoy; while Latin America (`1,314cr) grew by 34.0%
yoy. USA (`375cr), the key market for the company, posted a yoy growth
of 1%.
The Indian market posted a robust growth, owing to better-than-expected rainfall
in the country. However, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat remained rain deficient.
In USA, good crop conditions resulted in higher yields in Corn, Wheat and
Soybean. However, commodity prices remains depressed. Agrochemical market
growth estimated to be lower than last year. In ROW, overall season has recovered
in Asia and Australia after a prolonged drought.
Including Advanta sales, the company posted sales of `3510cr, posting a yoy
growth of 7.2%.
November 7, 2016
2
United Phosphorus | 2QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 2: Sales Break-up (Marketwise)
100%
1,250
80%
1,583
2,080
1,916
1,705
60%
562
358
872
341
40%
300
1,060
498
417
836
1,026
20%
594
971
638
358
375
0%
2QFY2016
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
2QFY2017
North America
India
EU
Others
Source: Company
Exhibit 3: Sales performance (including export incentives)
Exhibit 4: Growth break-up
4,292
25
23
4200
3,658
3,510
20
3600
3,135
3,050
15
3000
10
2400
5
1800
1
0
1200
(5)
600
(5)
0
(10)
2QFY2016
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
2QFY2017
Exchange impact
Realisation
Volume
Source: Company, Angel Research
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Volume and realisation break-up (yoy)
30
26
25
23
20
13
15
11
10
8
5
3
2
1
0
(2)
(5)
2QFY2016
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
2QFY2017
Realisation
Volume
Source: Company, Angel Research
November 7, 2016
3
United Phosphorus | 2QFY2017 Result Update
EBITDA margin expands
On the operating front, the gross margin came in at 52.1% (vs. 49.8% in
2QFY2016), which aided the OPM for the quarter to come in at 14.6% (vs. 13.4%
in 2QFY2016). The gross margin (Including Advanta) came in at 42.3% (vs. 41.1%
in 2QFY2016), which led the OPM to come in at 19.9% V/s 18.9% in 2QFY2016.
Exhibit 6: EBITDA margin trend
25.0
24.0
23.0
22.0
21.0
21.6
20.0
19.0
18.0
19.0
18.6
17.0
16.0
15.0
14.0
14.6
13.0
13.4
12.0
2QFY2016
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
2QFY2017
Source: Company, Angel Research
Adj. net profit grew 25.2% yoy
The company posted a 25.2% yoy growth in its Adj. PAT, excluding the extra-
ordinaries and profits from associates and subsidiaries. However, a higher share
of extra ordinary expenses of `56cr, enabled the company to post a PAT of
`166cr (vs. `140cr in 2QFY2016), a yoy growth of 18.7%.
Including the Adavnta numbers, the company posted a 25.2% yoy growth in its
Adj. PAT (`430cr) for the quarter, excluding the extra-ordinaries and profits from
associates and subsidiaries.
Exhibit 7: Adjusted PAT trend
700
50
600
40
500
30
400
20
300
10
200
0
100
-10
153
306
574
430
222
0
-20
2QFY2016
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
2QFY2017
Adj PAT
% YoY
Source: Company, Angel Research
November 7, 2016
4
United Phosphorus | 2QFY2017 Result Update
Invvestment arguments
Innovators dominant in the off-patent space; Generic firms in
a sweet spot
The global agrichemical industry, valued at US$56bn (CY2015), is dominated by
the top six innovators, viz Bayer, Syngenta, Monsanto, BASF, DuPont and Dow,
which enjoy a large market share of the patented (23%) and off-patent (54%)
market. The top six innovators enjoy a large share of the off-patent market due to
high entry barriers for pure generic players. Thus, of the total pie worth US$30bn,
which is controlled by the top six innovators through proprietary
off-patent products, provides a high-growth opportunity for larger integrated
generic players like UPL.
Generic segment’s market share to increase
The industry registered a CAGR of 3% over 1998-2006, while generic players
outpaced the industry with a CAGR of 6%. Going ahead, given the opportunities
and a drop in the rate of new molecule introduction by innovators, we expect
generic players to continue to outpace the industry’s growth rate and augment
their market share in the overall pie. Historically, global agrichem players have
been logging in-line growth with global GDP. Going ahead, over CY2016-17, the
global economy is expected to grow by 3-4%. Assuming this trend plays out in
terms of growth for the agrichemical industry and the same rate of genericization
occurs, then the agrichemical generic industry could log in 6-8% yoy growth during
the period and garner a higher market share.
A global generic play
UPL is the third largest global generic agrichemical player with presence across
major markets including the US, EU, Latin America, and India. Given the high
entry barriers by way of high investments, entry of new players is restricted. Thus,
amidst this scenario and on account of having a low-cost base,
we believe UPL enjoys an edge over competition and is placed in a sweet spot to
leverage the upcoming opportunities in the global generic space.
Advanta - An Entry into seeds business
During FY2016, UPL announced a merger of Advanta with itself. With this, the
company has made its foray into the seed business; thus, widening its business
offerings in the Agri-business. The company had around sales of US$204mn in
2015, with OPM of around 15-16%. It is the 11th largest seed company globally,
with world leadership in Sorghum. Along with this, it also completes the business
portfolio in line with the other major Agri-business, who have around 5-20%
(Monsanto and DuPont have around 65% of their sales mix through seeds) of their
sales mix through seeds business. While the acquisition improves the presence of
the company in the low capital intensive industry coupled with the propriety
products, which will yield long term profitability; the near term challenges include
high R&D cost coupled with long legislation period for the product
commercialization.
According to Industry, the international seed sector is growing at 6% per annum. In
value terms, the Indian hybrid seed sector estimated to be worth `12,000cr
November 7, 2016
5
United Phosphorus | 2QFY2017 Result Update
comprises some 14 states seed corporations and two national-level corporations,
20 large players including multinationals and around 500 small regional players.
About 10 domestic and multinational companies control over 80% of the market.
The market has been growing at 15-20% annually over the past several years and
is projected to reach around `18,000cr by 2018. Though, we have included the
Advanta numbers in our projections, we have been conservative on the same.
Outlook and valuation
Over the last few years, the global agriculture sector has been reviving on the back
of rising food prices. Food security is also a top priority for most governments;
reducing food loss is one of the easiest ways to boost food inventory. Hence, we
believe agrichemical companies would continue to do well in the wake of
heightened food security risks, and strong demand is likely to be witnessed across
the world. Overall, we expect the global agrichemical industry to perform well
from here on. Generics are expected to register a healthy growth due to a)
increasing penetration and wresting market share from innovators and b) patent
expiries worth US$3bn-4bn during the next five years.
We estimate UPL to post a 25.9% and 17.7% CAGR in sales and PAT, respectively,
over FY2016-18E. The stock is trading at 15.9x FY2018E EPS, which we believe
provides very little room for appreciation. Hence, we recommend a Neutral rating
on the stock.
Exhibit 8: Key assumption
FY2017E
FY2018E
Sales growth
26.2
25.5
EBITDA margin
17.5
17.5
Tax rate
20.0
20.0
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 9: P/E band
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Price
6x
8x
10x
12x
14x
Source: Company, Angel Research
November 7, 2016
6
United Phosphorus | 2QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 10: Peer valuation
Upsi
EV/EBITDA
Company
Reco
Mcap CMP TP
P/E (x)
EV/Sales (x)
RoE (%)
CAGR (%)
de
(x)
(` cr)
(`)
(`)
(%) FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18 Sales PAT
Rallis
Neutral
4,377
225
-
-
26.2
20.5
2.1
1.9
14.9
13.0
16.5
18.0
15.0
22.3
UPL
Neutral
35,259
696
-
-
21.5
15.9
2.2
1.7
12.6
9.9
21.4
24.1
25.9
17.7
Source: Company, Angel Research, Bloomberg, All numbers in FY17 and FY18 are expected numbers
November 7, 2016
7
United Phosphorus | 2QFY2017 Result Update
Company background
United Phosphorus (UPL) is a global generic crop protection, chemicals and seeds
company. The company is fully backward and forward integrated by taking
advantage of the consolidation opportunities within the agrochemical industry. UPL
is the largest Indian agrochemical company and had revenue of about `11,911cr
for the year ended March 2015. During FY2016, UPL announced its merger with
Advanta. With this, the company has made its foray into the seed business; thus,
widening its business offerings in the Agri-business.
November 7, 2016
8
United Phosphorus | 2QFY2017 Result Update
Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
Net Sales
9,010
10,580
11,911
13,083
16,516
20,722
Other operating income
184
191
45
219
219
219
Total operating income
9,195
10,771
11,956
13,302
16,735
20,941
% chg
19.9
17.1
11.0
11.3
25.8
25.1
Total Expenditure
7,568
8,751
9,736
10,663
13,619
17,088
Net Raw Materials
4,687
5,441
6,016
6,411
8,094
10,155
Other Mfg costs
741
942
866
1,164
1,470
1,844
Personnel
853
946
1,043
1,224
1,545
1,939
Other
1,287
1,422
1,810
1,864
2,510
3,150
EBITDA
1,442
1,829
2,175
2,419
2,897
3,634
% chg
19.6
26.8
19.0
11.2
26.2
25.5
(% of Net Sales)
16.0
17.3
18.3
18.5
17.5
17.5
Dep. & Amortisation
354
407
425
502
573
629
EBIT
1,273
1,613
1,796
2,137
2,542
3,224
% chg
21.1
26.7
11.4
19.0
26.4
26.8
(% of Net Sales)
13.8
15.0
15.0
16.1
16.1
15.4
Interest & other Charges
429
487
517
622
502
502
Other Income
73
131
131
112
112
112
(% of PBT)
8
10
9
7
5
4
Recurring PBT
917
1,257
1,410
1,626
2,152
2,834
% chg
25.0
37.1
12.2
15.3
42.0
31.7
Extraordinary Exp./(Inc.)
27
85
(2)
(53)
-
-
PBT (reported)
944
1,172
1,413
1,679
2,152
2,834
Tax
203
222
244
283
462
567
(% of PBT)
21.5
18.9
17.3
16.9
20.0
20.0
PAT (reported)
741
950
1,169
1,396
1,690
2,267
Add: Share of earnings of
32
30
21
(31)
(35)
(39)
asso.
Less: Minority interest (MI)
(2)
7
43
13
13
13
Prior period items
-
24
-
-
-
-
PAT after MI (reported)
775
950
1,144
1,299
1,642
2,215
ADJ. PAT
754
1,040
1,147
1,352
1,642
2,215
% chg
34.3
38.0
10.2
17.9
33.2
34.9
(% of Net Sales)
8.4
9.8
9.6
10.3
10.9
10.7
Basic EPS (`)
17.0
24.3
26.7
31.5
32.4
43.7
Fully Diluted EPS (`)
17.0
24.3
26.7
31.5
32.4
43.7
% chg
40.1
42.5
10.2
17.9
2.7
34.9
November 7, 2016
9
United Phosphorus | 2QFY2017 Result Update
Balance Sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital
89
86
86
86
101
101
Preference Capital
-
-
-
-
-
-
Reserves& Surplus
4,557
5,162
5,775
6,705
8,094
10,055
Shareholders’ Funds
4,645
5,247
5,860
6,791
8,195
10,156
Minority Interest
234
172
44
42
55
68
Total Loans
4,203
2,873
2,781
3,860
3,860
3,860
Other Long term liab.
395
311
594
464
464
464
Long Term Provisions
51
53
53
53
53
53
Deferred Tax Liability
(13)
57
45
(5)
(5)
(5)
Total Liabilities
9,516
8,714
9,378
11,205
12,622
14,597
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block
5,386
6,039
6,792
7,791
8,591
9,391
Less: Acc. Depreciation
3,173
3,580
4,005
4,507
5,080
5,709
Net Block
2,213
2,459
2,787
3,285
3,511
3,682
Capital Work-in-Progress
378
378
378
378
378
378
Goodwill / Intangilbles
1,277
1,212
1,449
1,463
1,463
1,463
Investments
1,025
737
764
1,066
1,066
1,066
Long Term Loan & Adv.
277
389
418
537
579
727
Current Assets
7,154
7,572
8,372
10,069
12,265
15,613
Cash
1,548
1,023
1,010
1,068
1,489
2,243
Loans & Advances
852
771
586
840
1,380
1,581
Other
4,754
5,779
6,776
8,162
9,396
11,789
Current liabilities
2,807
4,033
4,789
5,593
6,641
8,332
Net Current Assets
4,346
3,539
3,582
4,476
5,624
7,281
Others
-
-
-
-
-
-
Total Assets
9,516
8,714
9,378
11,205
12,622
14,597
November 7, 2016
10
United Phosphorus | 2QFY2017 Result Update
Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017E FY2018E
Profit before tax
944
1,172
1,413
1,679
2,310
2,834
Depreciation
354
407
425
502
573
629
Change in Working Capital
(806)
171
(86)
(955)
(950)
(1,247)
Less: Other income
-
-
-
-
-
-
Direct taxes paid
(203)
(222)
(244)
(283)
(462)
(567)
Cash Flow from Operations
288
1,528
1,508
942
1,471
1,649
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets
(771)
(653)
(753)
(1,000)
(800)
(800)
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments
(231)
-
-
-
-
-
Inc./ (Dec.) in loans and adv.
-
-
-
-
-
-
Other income
-
-
-
-
-
-
Cash Flow from Investing
(1,002)
(653)
(753)
(1,000)
(800)
(800)
Issue of Equity
-
(3)
-
-
16
-
Inc./(Dec.) in loans
(908)
1,413
(192)
(949)
0
0
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)
(129)
(201)
(214)
(214)
(253)
(253)
Others
1,733
(2,612)
(362)
1,278
4
158
Cash Flow from Financing
696
(1,403)
(768)
115
(234)
(95)
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash
(18)
(525)
(13)
58
421
754
Opening Cash balances
1,566
1,548
1,023
1,010
1,068
1,489
Closing Cash balances
1,548
1,023
1,010
1,068
1,489
2,243
November 7, 2016
11
United Phosphorus | 2QFY2017 Result Update
Key Ratios
Y/E March
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS)
40.8
28.7
26.0
22.1
21.5
15.9
P/CEPS
27.8
20.6
19.0
16.1
15.9
12.4
P/BV
6.6
5.7
5.1
4.4
4.3
3.5
Dividend yield (%)
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
EV/Sales
4.1
3.4
3.0
2.8
2.2
1.7
EV/EBITDA
25.6
19.9
16.7
15.3
12.6
9.9
EV / Total Assets
3.9
4.2
3.9
3.3
2.9
2.5
Per Share Data (`)
EPS (Basic)
17.0
24.3
26.7
31.5
32.4
43.7
EPS (fully diluted)
17.0
24.3
26.7
31.5
32.4
43.7
Cash EPS
25.0
33.8
36.7
43.2
43.7
56.1
DPS
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
Book Value
105.0
122.4
136.7
158.4
161.7
200.4
DuPont Analysis
EBIT margin
13.8
15.0
15.0
16.1
16.1
15.4
Tax retention ratio
78.5
81.1
82.7
83.1
80.0
80.0
Asset turnover (x)
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.9
ROIC (Post-tax)
15.4
18.5
20.3
21.0
22.3
23.9
Cost of Debt (Post Tax)
8.9
11.2
15.1
15.6
10.4
10.4
Leverage (x)
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.2
Operating ROE
18.6
21.9
22.0
22.9
26.4
26.9
Returns (%)
ROCE (Pre-tax)
14.4
17.7
19.9
20.8
21.2
23.2
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)
20.0
23.2
24.7
25.6
26.6
30.2
ROE
17.1
21.0
20.6
21.4
21.9
24.1
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross Block)
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.8
2.0
2.3
Inventory / Sales (days)
78
83
86
86
81
81
Receivables (days)
102
83
86
86
81
81
Payables (days)
108
69
72
73
68
68
WCcycle (ex-cash) (days)
96
92
78
83
85
86
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity
0.4
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
Net debt to EBITDA
1.5
1.8
1.0
0.8
1.2
0.8
Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.)
3.0
3.3
3.5
3.4
5.4
6.4
November 7, 2016
12
United Phosphorus | 2QFY2017 Result Update
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Ratings (Based on expected returns
Buy (> 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
over 12 months investment period):
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Sell (< -15)
November 7, 2016
13