1QFY2017 Result Update | Agrichemical
August 5, 2016
United Phosphorus
BUY
CMP
`584
Performance Highlights
Target Price
`684
Y/E March (` cr)
1QFY2017 4QFY2016
% chg (QoQ) 1QFY2016
% chg (yoy)
Investment Period
12 Months
Net sales
3,452
4292
(19.6)
3206
7.7
Other income
66
120
(44.8)
48
38.1
Stock Info
Sector
Agrichemical
Gross profit
1852
2143
(13.6)
1666
11.1
Market Cap (` cr)
25,026
Operating profit
640
927
(30.9)
534
19.8
Net Debt (` cr)
1,113
Adj. net profit
430
574
(25.2)
340
26.4
Source: Company, Angel Research
Beta
1.0
52 Week High / Low
635/342
For 1QFY2017, United Phosphorus (UPL) posted sales of `3,452cr V/s `3,205cr
Avg. Daily Volume
126,828
in 1QFY2016, ie a growth of 7.7% yoy. All markets posted double digit growth
Face Value (`)
2
except for India and the USA, which posted growth of 1% and 5% respectively.
BSE Sensex
27,698
Growth was on the back of 8% volume growth, while price dip contributed 2%,
Nifty
8,545
and exchange rate accounted for 2%. On the operating front, the OPM came in
Reuters Code
UNPO.BO
at 18.6% V/s 16.7% in 1QFY2016. This led to an Adj. net profit of `430cr V/s
Bloomberg Code
[email protected]
`340cr in 1QFY2016, ie a growth of 26.4% yoy. The Management maintains its
guidance of 12-15% revenue growth and 60-100bp margin expansion. We
maintain our Buy rating on the stock.
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters
29.7
Quarterly highlights: For 1QFY2017, the company posted sales of `3,452cr V/s
MF / Banks / Indian Fls
15.0
`3,205cr in 1QFY2016, ie a growth of 7.7% yoy. All markets posted double digit
FII / NRIs / OCBs
47.8
growth except for India and the USA, which posted growth of 1% and 5%
Indian Public / Others
7.5
respectively. Growth was on the back of 8% volume growth, while price dip
contributed 2%, and exchange rate accounted for 2% gain. On the operating
front, the OPM came in at 18.6% V/s 16.7% in 1QFY2016. The improvement in
Abs. (%)
3m 1yr
3yr
the OPM was on back of higher gross margins, which came in at 53.6% V/s
Sensex
9.8
(1.7)
44.5
52.0% in 1QFY2016. This led the company to post a net-profit of `430cr V/s
UPL
0.9
8.0
368.4
`340cr in 1QFY2016, a growth of 26.4% yoy.
Outlook and valuation: We expect UPL to post a CAGR of 16.0% and 18.9% in
3-year price chart
sales and PAT, respectively, over FY2016-18E. The Management has given its
700
guidance of 12-15% volume growth with 60-100bp margin expansion in FY2017.
600
We recommend a Buy rating on the stock.
500
400
Key financials (Consolidated)
300
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
200
Total revenue
11,911
13,083
15,176
17,604
100
% chg
12.6
9.8
16.0
16.0
0
Adj. profit
1,147
1,352
1,601
1,912
% chg
10.2
17.9
18.5
19.4
EBITDA (%)
18.3
18.5
18.5
18.5
Source: Company, Angel Research
EPS (`)
26.7
31.5
37.4
44.6
P/E (x)
21.8
18.5
15.6
13.1
P/BV (x)
4.3
3.7
3.1
2.5
RoE (%)
20.6
21.4
21.4
21.2
RoCE (%)
19.9
20.8
20.6
21.1
Sarabjit Kour Nangra
EV/Sales (x)
2.1
2.0
1.7
1.4
+91-22-3935 7800 ext. 6806
EV/EBITDA (x)
11.6
10.8
9.1
7.6
[email protected]
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of August 3, 2016
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
1
United Phosphorus | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 1QFY2017 Performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
1QFY2017
4QFY2016
% chg (qoq) 1QFY2016
% chg (yoy)
FY2016 FY2015
% chg
Net sales
3,452
4,292
(19.6)
3,206
7.7
13,083
11,911
9.8
Other income
66
120
(44.8)
48
38.1
383
177
117.0
Total income
3,518
4,413
(20.3)
3,254
8.1
13,466
12,088
11.4
Gross profit
1852
2143
(13.6)
1666
11.1
6671
5895
13.2
Gross margin (%)
53.6
49.9
52.0
51.0
49.5
Operating profit
640
927
(30.9)
534
19.8
2419
2175
11.2
Operating margin (%)
18.6
21.6
16.7
18.5
18.3
Financial cost
106
203
(47.9)
68
56.9
622
517
Depreciation
169
159
6.3
155
9.2
502
425
18.2
PBT
432
684
(36.9)
360
19.9
1679
1410
19.0
Provision for taxation
3
64
(95.9)
34
(92.4)
283
244
16.0
PAT Before Exc. And MI
429
620
(30.8)
326
31.7
1396
1166
19.7
Minority Income/ ( Exp.)
(16)
(8)
(2)
(13)
(43)
Income from Associate/ (Exp)
23
(35)
(3)
(31)
21
Extra ordinary Income/( Exp.)
(28)
(25)
(15)
(53)
(2)
Reported PAT
402
552
(27.2)
325
23.7
1299
1144
13.5
Adjusted PAT
430
574
(25.2)
340
26.4
1343
1147
17.1
EPS (`)
10.0
13.4
7.9
31.3
26.7
Source: Company, Angel Research
Top-line growth mainly led by Latin America, Europe & RoW
UPL posted a 7.7% yoy growth in sales for the quarter to `3,452cr, mainly on the
back of 13%, 12%, and 13% yoy growth in Latin America, Europe, and RoW
respectively. Other key markets like India and the USA posted a growth of 1% and
5% yoy, respectively. Overall growth breakup was- price and volume dip and 2%
and gain of 8% respectively, while exchange enhanced growth by 2%.
India (`1,060cr) posted a 1% yoy rise on back of delayed monsoon and high
opening inventory from last year. However, widespread rains across India starting
from late June 2016 are expected to perk up demand and performance in
subsequent quarters should stand to benefit.
Europe (`562cr) posted a 12% yoy rise, benefitting from good rains. However, the
company noted that registration guidelines are becoming much more stringent for
agrochemicals.
Latin America (`697cr) posted a strong 13% yoy growth. The company has an
excellent fungicide portfolio to manage Asian rust diseases. However, the market is
sensitive to existing and future peso devaluation in Mexico. On the positive side,
the license requirement for agrochemical import in Argentina has been removed.
ROW (`553cr) posted a 13% yoy growth. Overall, the season is recovering in Asia
and Australia after a prolonged drought. The company had geographic expansion
of its non-selective herbicides portfolio in Asia and good growth in Turkey due to
institutional business despite a slow season. Business is recovering in selected
countries in Africa with new products.
August 5, 2016
2
United Phosphorus | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 2: Sales Break-up (Marketwise)
100%
1,109
1,250
80%
1,354
2,080
1,705
60%
503
562
358
40%
300
872
1,055
1,060
715
498
417
20%
971
608
594
638
374
0%
1QFY2016
2QFY2016
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
North America
India
EU
Others
Source: Company
Exhibit 3: Sales performance (including export incentives)
Exhibit 4: Growth break-up
4,292
10
4,200
8
3,510
8
3,600
3,275
3,050
2,801
6
3,000
4
2,400
2
1,800
2
1,200
0
600
(2)
(2)
0
(4)
1QFY2016
2QFY2016
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
Exchange impact
Realisation
Volume
Source: Company, Angel Research
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Volume and realisation break-up (yoy)
30
26
25
20
16
15
13
11
10
8
5
3
2
0
1
0
(5)
(2)
1QFY2016
2QFY2016
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
Realisation
Volume
Source: Company, Angel Research
August 5, 2016
3
United Phosphorus | 1QFY2017 Result Update
EBITDA margin improves
On the operating front, strong sales growth (supported by healthy volume growth
and price rise) led the gross margin to come in at 53.6% V/s (52.0% in1QFY2016)
and the OPM to come in at 18.6% (V/s 16.7% in 1QFY2016).
Exhibit 6: EBITDA margin trend
25.0
24.0
23.0
22.0
21.0
21.6
20.0
19.0
19.0
18.0
18.6
17.0
16.0
16.7
16.5
15.0
1QFY2016
2QFY2016
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
Source: Company, Angel Research
Adj net profit grew 26.4% yoy
Top-line and operating performance aided the Adj. net profit to come in at `430cr
V/s `340cr in 1QFY2016, a growth of 26.4% yoy. Other income during the
quarter came in at `66cr V/s `48cr in 1QFY2016, a yoy growth of 38.1%.
Exhibit 7: Adjusted PAT trend
700
35
574
600
30
500
25
430
400
20
340
306
300
15
190
200
10
100
5
0
0
1QFY2016
2QFY2016
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
Adj PAT
% YoY
Source: Company, Angel Research
August 5, 2016
4
United Phosphorus | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Concall highlights
The company targets a revenue growth of 12-15% (at constant currency) for
FY2017 on the back of volumes. It expects EBITDA margin to improve 60-
100bp, driven by improvement in gross margins.
The company is targeting a RoCE of 23-25% over the next 3-5 years. It plans
to invest `850cr including on product registrations.
The Management has indicated that the integration of Advanta with UPL has
been progressing as per plan and synergistic benefits will be availed over the
next two years.
The Management also sounded confident of achieving 10-11% growth in
Advanta for the next two years despite a challenging demand environment for
some of its key crops like canola and sorghum.
Investment arguments
Innovators dominant in the off-patent space; Generic firms in
a sweet spot
The global agrichem industry, valued at US$53bn (CY2014), is dominated by the
top six innovators, viz Bayer, Syngenta, Monsanto, BASF, DuPont and Dow, which
enjoy a large market share of the patented (28%) and off-patent (32%) market.
The top six innovators enjoy a large share of the off-patent market due to high
entry barriers for pure generic players. Thus, one-third of the total pie worth
US$18bn, which is controlled by the top six innovators through proprietary
off-patent products, provides a high-growth opportunity for larger integrated
generic players like UPL.
Generic segment’s market share to increase
Generic players have been garnering a high market share; their share has
increased from 32% levels in 1998 to 40% by 2006-end. The industry registered a
CAGR of 3% over 1998-2006, while generic players outpaced the industry with a
CAGR of 6%. Going ahead, given the opportunities and a drop in the rate of new
molecule introduction by innovators, we expect generic players to continue to
outpace the industry’s growth rate and augment their market share in the overall
pie. Historically, global agrichem players have been logging in-line growth with
global GDP. Going ahead, over CY2016-17, the global economy is expected to
grow by 2-3%. Assuming this trend plays out in terms of growth for the agrichem
industry, and the same rate of genericisation occurs, then the agrichemical generic
industry could log in 6-8% yoy growth during the period and garner a market
share of 44-45%.
A global generic play
UPL figures among the top five global generic agrichemical players with presence
across major markets including the US, EU, Latin America, and India. Given the
high entry barriers by way of high investments, entry of new players is restricted.
Thus, amidst this scenario and on account of having a low-cost base,
we believe UPL enjoys an edge over competition and is placed in a sweet spot to
leverage the upcoming opportunities in the global generic space.
August 5, 2016
5
United Phosphorus | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Outlook and valuation
Over the last few years, the global agriculture sector has been reviving on the back
of rising food prices. Food security is also a top priority for most governments;
reducing food loss is one of the easiest ways to boost food inventory. Hence, we
believe agrichemical companies would continue to do well in the wake of
heightened food security risks, and strong demand is likely to be witnessed across
the world. Overall, we expect the global agrichemical industry to perform well
from here on. Generics are expected to register a healthy growth due to a)
increasing penetration and wresting market share from innovators and b) patent
expiries worth US$3bn-4bn during the next five years.
We estimate UPL to post a 16.0% and 18.9% CAGR in sales and PAT, respectively,
over FY2016-18E. We believe at the current market price the stock provides decent
upsides (13.3x FY2018E EPS). Hence we recommend a Buy rating on the stock.
Exhibit 8: Key assumption
FY2017E
FY2018E
Sales growth
16.0
16.0
EBITDA margin
18.5
19.4
Tax rate
20.0
20.0
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 9: P/E band
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Price
6x
8x
10x
12x
14x
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 10: Peer valuation
Company Reco
Mcap CMP TP Upside
P/E (x)
EV/Sales (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
RoE (%)
CAGR (%)
(` cr)
(`)
(`)
(%) FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E Sales PAT
Rallis
Neutral
4,237
218
-
-
24.1
19.8
2.2
1.9
16.4
13.3
18.4
19.8
15.0
22.3
UPL
Buy
25,026
584
684
17.1
15.6
13.1
1.7
1.4
9.3
7.8
21.4
21.2
16.0
18.9
Source: Company, Angel Research, Bloomberg
August 5, 2016
6
United Phosphorus | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Company background
United Phosphorus (UPL) is a global generic crop protection, chemicals and seeds
company. The company is fully backward and forward integrated by taking
advantage of the consolidation opportunities within the agrochemical industry. UPL
is the largest Indian agrochemical company and had revenue of about `13,083cr
for the year ended March 2016.
Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
Net Sales
9,010
10,580
11,911
13,083
15,176
17,604
Other operating income
184
191
45
219
219
219
Total operating income
9,195
10,771
11,956
13,302
15,395
17,823
% chg
19.9
17.1
11.0
11.3
15.7
15.8
Total Expenditure
7,568
8,751
9,736
10,663
12,369
14,349
Net Raw Materials
4,687
5,441
6,016
6,411
7,437
8,627
Other Mfg costs
741
942
980
1,164
1,351
1,567
Personnel
853
946
1,043
1,224
1,420
1,647
Other
1,287
1,422
1,697
1,864
2,162
2,508
EBITDA
1,442
1,829
2,175
2,419
2,806
3,255
% chg
19.6
26.8
19.0
11.2
16.0
16.0
(% of Net Sales)
16.0
17.3
18.3
18.5
18.5
18.5
Depreciation& Amortisation
354
407
425
502
573
629
EBIT
1,273
1,613
1,796
2,137
2,452
2,845
% chg
21.1
26.7
11.4
19.0
14.8
16.0
(% of Net Sales)
13.8
15.0
15.0
16.1
15.9
16.0
Interest & other Charges
429
487
517
622
502
502
Other Income
73
131
131
112
112
112
(% of PBT)
8
10
9
7
5
5
Recurring PBT
917
1,257
1,410
1,626
2,062
2,455
% chg
25.0
37.1
12.2
15.3
26.8
19.1
Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.)
27
85
(2)
(53)
-
-
PBT (reported)
944
1,172
1,413
1,679
2,062
2,455
Tax
203
222
244
283
412
491
(% of PBT)
21.5
18.9
17.3
16.9
20.0
20.0
PAT (reported)
741
950
1,169
1,396
1,649
1,964
Add: Share of earnings of asso.
32
30
21
(31)
(35)
(39)
Less: Minority interest (MI)
(2)
7
43
13
13
13
Prior period items
-
24
-
-
-
-
PAT after MI (reported)
775
950
1,144
1,299
1,601
1,912
ADJ. PAT
754
1,040
1,147
1,352
1,601
1,912
% chg
34.3
38.0
10.2
17.9
18.5
19.4
(% of Net Sales)
8.4
9.8
9.6
10.3
10.6
10.9
Basic EPS (`)
17.0
24.3
26.7
31.5
37.4
44.6
Fully Diluted EPS (`)
17.0
24.3
26.7
31.5
37.4
44.6
% chg
40.1
42.5
10.2
17.9
18.5
19.4
August 5, 2016
7
United Phosphorus | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Balance Sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E FY2018E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital
89
86
86
86
86
86
Preference Capital
-
-
-
-
-
-
Reserves& Surplus
4,557
5,162
5,775
6,705
8,092
9,790
Shareholders’ Funds
4,645
5,247
5,860
6,791
8,178
9,875
Minority Interest
234
172
44
42
55
68
Total Loans
4,203
2,873
2,781
3,860
3,860
3,860
Other Long term liab.
395
311
594
464
464
464
Long Term Provisions
51
53
53
53
53
53
Deferred Tax Liability
(13)
57
45
(5)
(5)
(5)
Total Liabilities
9,516
8,714
9,378
11,205
12,605
14,315
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block
5,386
6,039
6,792
7,791
8,591
9,391
Less: Acc. Depreciation
3,173
3,580
4,005
4,507
5,080
5,709
Net Block
2,213
2,459
2,787
3,285
3,511
3,682
Capital Work-in-Progress
378
378
378
378
378
378
Goodwill / Intangilbles
1,277
1,212
1,449
1,463
1,463
1,463
Investments
1,025
737
764
1,066
1,066
1,066
Long Term Loan & Adv.
277
389
418
537
532
618
Current Assets
7,154
7,572
8,372
10,069
11,756
14,187
Cash
1,548
1,023
1,010
1,068
1,688
2,508
Loans & Advances
852
771
586
840
1,435
1,664
Other
4,754
5,779
6,776
8,162
8,633
10,015
Current liabilities
2,807
4,033
4,789
5,593
6,102
7,078
Net Current Assets
4,346
3,539
3,582
4,476
5,654
7,109
Others
-
-
-
-
-
-
Total Assets
9,516
8,714
9,378
11,205
12,605
14,315
August 5, 2016
8
United Phosphorus | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017E FY2018E
Profit before tax
944
1,172
1,413
1,679
2,062
2,455
Depreciation
354
407
425
502
573
629
Change in Working Capital
(806)
171
(86)
(955)
(553)
(720)
Less: Other income
-
-
-
-
-
-
Direct taxes paid
(203)
(222)
(244)
(283)
(412)
(491)
Cash Flow from Operations
288
1,528
1,508
942
1,670
1,873
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets
(771)
(653)
(753)
(1,000)
(800)
(800)
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments
(231)
-
-
-
-
-
Inc./ (Dec.) in loans and adv.
-
-
-
-
-
-
Other income
-
-
-
-
-
-
Cash Flow from Investing
(1,002)
(653)
(753)
(1,000)
(800)
(800)
Issue of Equity
-
(3)
-
-
-
-
Inc./(Dec.) in loans
(908)
1,413
(192)
(949)
0
0
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)
(129)
(201)
(214)
(214)
(214)
(214)
Others
1,733
(2,612)
(362)
1,278
(35)
(39)
Cash Flow from Financing
696
(1,403)
(768)
115
(249)
(253)
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash
(18)
(525)
(13)
58
620
820
Opening Cash balances
1,566
1,548
1,023
1,010
1,068
1,688
Closing Cash balances
1,548
1,023
1,010
1,068
1,688
2,508
August 5, 2016
9
United Phosphorus | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Key Ratios
Y/E March
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS)
34.3
24.1
21.8
18.5
15.6
13.1
P/CEPS
23.3
17.3
15.9
13.5
11.5
9.8
P/BV
5.6
4.8
4.3
3.7
3.1
2.5
Dividend yield (%)
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
EV/Sales
3.0
2.5
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.4
EV/EBITDA
18.5
14.3
12.0
11.1
9.3
7.8
EV / Total Assets
2.8
3.0
2.8
2.4
2.1
1.8
Per Share Data (`)
EPS (Basic)
17.0
24.3
26.7
31.5
37.4
44.6
EPS (fully diluted)
17.0
24.3
26.7
31.5
37.4
44.6
Cash EPS
25.0
33.8
36.7
43.2
50.7
59.3
DPS
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
Book Value
105.0
122.4
136.7
158.4
190.8
230.4
DuPont Analysis
EBIT margin
13.8
15.0
15.0
16.1
15.9
16.0
Tax retention ratio
78.5
81.1
82.7
83.1
80.0
80.0
Asset turnover (x)
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.7
ROIC (Post-tax)
15.4
18.5
20.3
21.0
20.4
21.8
Cost of Debt (Post Tax)
8.9
11.2
15.1
15.6
10.4
10.4
Leverage (x)
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.2
Operating ROE
18.6
21.9
22.0
22.9
23.8
24.1
Returns (%)
ROCE (Pre-tax)
14.4
17.7
19.9
20.8
20.6
21.1
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)
20.0
23.2
24.7
25.6
25.9
27.6
ROE
17.1
21.0
20.6
21.4
21.4
21.2
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross Block)
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.9
2.0
Inventory / Sales (days)
78
83
86
86
84
84
Receivables (days)
102
83
86
86
84
84
Payables (days)
108
69
72
73
71
71
WCcycle (ex-cash) (days)
96
92
78
83
89
89
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity
0.4
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
Net debt to EBITDA
1.5
1.8
1.0
0.8
1.2
0.8
Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.)
3.0
3.3
3.5
3.4
4.9
5.7
August 5, 2016
10
United Phosphorus | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement
United Phosphorus
1. Financial interest of research analyst or Angel or his Associate or his relative
No
2. Ownership of 1% or more of the stock by research analyst or Angel or associates or relatives
No
3. Served as an officer, director or employee of the company covered under Research
No
4. Broking relationship with company covered under Research
No
Ratings (Based on expected returns
Buy (> 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
over 12 months investment period):
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Sell (< -15)
August 5, 2016
11