3QFY2017 Result Update | Pharmaceutical
February 15, 2017
Sun Pharma
BUY
CMP
`650
Performance Highlights
Target Price
`847
(` cr)
3QFY2017 2QFY2017
% chg (qoq) 3QFY2016
% chg (yoy)
Investment Period
12 months
Net sales
7,683
7,764
(1.0)
7,087
8.4
Other income
352
621
(43.3)
208
68.9
Stock Info
Gross profit
5,435
5,924
(8.3)
5,354
1.5
Sector
Pharmaceutical
Operating profit
2,224
2,667
(16.6)
2,210
0.6
Market Cap (` cr)
156,476
Adj. Net profit
1,722
2,235
(23.0)
1,940
(11.2)
Net Debt (` cr)
(6,960)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Beta
0.7
52 Week High / Low
898/572
For 3QFY2017 Sun Pharmaceuticals posted results marginally lower than
Avg. Daily Volume
465,142
expectations on sales front, while OPM came in much below expectation,
Face Value (`)
1
however, net profit was slightly below expectations. Sales came in at `7,683cr
BSE Sensex
28,339
(v/s `7800cr expected) v/s `7,087cr in 3QFY2016, a yoy growth of 8.4%. Indian
Nifty
8,792
sales at `1,969cr, posted a yoy growth of 5%, while USA finished dosage sales
Reuters Code
SUN.BO
(45% of sales) at US$507mn, posted a yoy growth of 4%. On EBITDA front, the
Bloomberg Code
[email protected]
company posted an EBITDA of 28.9% (v/s 33.6% expected) v/s 31.2% in
3QFY2016. Consequently, Adj. PAT came in at `1,722cr (v/s `1,734cr expected)
v/s `1,940cr in 3QFY2016, a yoy de-growth of 11.2% yoy. We maintain
Shareholding Pattern (%)
our Buy.
Promoters
54.4
MF / Banks / Indian Fls
15.6
OPM lower than expectations: Sales came in at `7,683cr (v/s `7,800cr expected)
FII / NRIs / OCBs
22.0
v/s `7,087cr in 3QFY2016, a yoy growth of 8.4%. Indian sales at `1,969cr,
posted a yoy growth of 5%, while USA finished dosage sales (45% of sales) at
Indian Public / Others
8.0
US$507mn, posted a yoy growth of 4%. On EBITDA front, the company posted
an EBITDA of
28.9% (v/s
33.6% expected) v/s
31.2% in 3QFY2016.
Abs. (%)
3m 1yr
3yr
Consequently, Adj. PAT came in at
`1,722cr (v/s
`1,734cr expected) v/s
Sensex
5.7
23.3
39.1
`1,940cr in 3QFY2016, a yoy de-growth of 11.2% yoy.
Sun Pharma
(5.6)
(23.4)
6.8
Outlook and valuation: Sun Pharma is one of the largest and fastest growing
Indian pharmaceutical companies. We expect its net sales to post a CAGR of
12.7% (including Ranbaxy Laboratories) to `35,258cr and EPS to post a CAGR of
3-year price chart
26.5% to `35.3 over FY2016-18E. We recommend a Buy rating on the stock.
1,200
Key financials (Consolidated)
1,000
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
800
Net sales
27,287
27,744
31,129
35,258
600
% chg
70.6
1.7
12.2
13.3
400
Adj. Net profit
4,743
5,306
7,260
8,495
% chg
(10.0)
11.9
36.8
17.0
200
EPS (`)
22.9
22.0
30.2
35.3
EBITDA margin (%)
28.6
26.2
32.0
32.9
Source: Company, Angel Research
P/E (x)
28.4
29.5
21.6
18.4
RoE (%)
21.1
18.3
20.0
20.1
RoCE (%)
21.1
16.6
18.9
18.9
P/BV (x)
5.9
4.3
3.5
2.9
Sarabjit Kour Nangra
EV/Sales (x)
4.8
5.5
4.7
3.9
+91 22 39357600 Ext: 6806
EV/EBITDA (x)
16.8
20.9
14.6
11.9
[email protected]
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of February 14, 2017
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
1
Sun Pharma | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 3QFY2017 performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
3QFY2017
2QFY2017
% chg QoQ 3QFY2016
% chg yoy 9MFY2017 9MFY2016
% chg
Net sales
7,683
7,764
(1.0)
7,087
8.4
23,439
20,472
14.5
Other income
351.6
620.5
(43.3)
208.1
68.9
1,365
737.2
85.2
Total income
8,035
8,385
(4.2)
7,295
10.1
24,805
21,209
17.0
Gross profit
5,435
5,924
(8.3)
5,354
1.5
17,504
15,550
12.6
Gross margin (%)
70.7
76.3
75.6
74.7
76.0
Operating profit
2,224
2,667
(16.6)
2,210
0.6
7,575
4,916
54.1
Operating margin (%)
28.9
34.3
31.2
32.3
24.0
Interest
167
54
210.3
128
30.7
355
420
(15.6)
Depreciation
307
304
1.0
251
22.3
927
750
23.6
Extraordinary item loss/ ( gain)
0
0
0
0
609
PBT
2,102
2,930
(28.3)
2,040
3.0
7,659
4,484
70.8
Provision for taxation
372.9
441.7
(15.6)
88.8
319.9
1,167
496
135.2
PAT before extra-ordinary item
1,729
2,488
(30.5)
1,951
(11.4)
6,492
3,988
62.8
Minority interest(MI)
7
253
(97.1)
12
(37.5)
31
(8)
-
Reported PAT
1,722
2,235
(23.0)
1,940
(11.2)
6,461
3,996
61.7
Adj. PAT
1,722
2,235
(23.0)
1,940
(11.2)
6,461
4,605
40.3
Adj. EPS (`)
7.2
9.3
8.1
26.8
9.4
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 3QFY2017 - Actual V/s Angel estimates
(` cr)
Actual
Estimates
Variance (%)
Net sales
7,683
7,800
(1.5)
Other income
352
255
38.0
Operating profit
2,224
2,621
(15.2)
Tax
373
542
(31.2)
Adj. Net profit
1,722
1,734
(0.7)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Numbers just in-line with expectations: Sales came in at `7,683cr (v/s `7800cr
expected) v/s `7087cr in 3QFY2016, a yoy growth of 8.4%. Indian sales at
`1,969cr, posted a yoy growth of 5%, while USA finished dosage sales (45% of
sales) at US$507mn, posted a yoy growth of 4%.
Sales of branded formulations in India for 3QFY2017 stood at `1,969.4cr, up
5.1% yoy and accounted for 26% of total sales. Sun Pharma is ranked No. 1 and
holds ~8.7% market share in the `100,000cr pharmaceutical market as per the
December-2016 AIOCD-AWACS report.
Sales in the US came in at US$507mn for the quarter, accounting for 45% of total
sales. Sales in emerging markets were at US$172mn for 3QFY2017, a yoy growth
of 14% and accounted for 14% of total sales. Formulation sales in Rest of World
(ROW) markets excluding US and Emerging markets were US$113mn in
3QFY2017, a growth of 33% yoy and accounted for ~10% of revenues for the
quarter.
The company had a total of 424 ANDAs filed with the USFDA. Currently, ANDAs
for 149 products await USFDA approval, including 14 tentative approvals.
February 15, 2017
2
Sun Pharma | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 3: Sales trend
7000
6153
5755
5714
6000
5673
5212
5000
4000
3000
2010
1969
1890
1807
1854
2000
1000
0
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
2QFY2017
3QFY2017
Domestic Formulation
Export Formulation, Bulk and others
Source: Company, Angel Research
OPM at 28.9%; lower than an expected 33.6%: On EBITDA front, the company posted
an EBITDA of 28.9% (v/s 33.6% expected) v/s 31.2% in 3QFY2016. The dip in the OPM was
on the back of lower GPM, which came in at 70.7% v/s 75.6% in 3QFY2016. The R&D
expenses came in at 8.0% of sales, in-line with last year, posting a yoy growth of 5.0%.
Exhibit 4: OPM trend (%)
40.0
34.3
34.3
31.2
31.0
28.9
30.0
20.0
10.0
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
2QFY2017
3QFY2017
Source: Company, Angel Research,
Net profit slightly below expectations: Consequently, Adj. PAT came in at `1,722cr
(v/s `1,734cr expected) v/s `1,940cr in 3QFY2016, a yoy de-growth of 11.2%
yoy. Other income came in at `351.6cr v/s `208.1cr in 3QFY2016, a yoy growth
of 68.9%.
February 15, 2017
3
Sun Pharma | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 5: Adjusted Net profit trend (` cr)
3,000
2,500
2,235
2,235
2,034
2,000
1,722
1,417
1,500
1,000
500
0
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
2QFY2017
3QFY2017
Source: Company, Angel Research
Concall takeaways
Company is on track to achieve US $300mn from Ranbaxy synergies by
FY2018E. The focus areas for integration include cGMP compliance, sourcing
efficiencies as well as revenue synergies.
Company plans to shift key products from Halol.
Tildrakizumab NDA filling will be done by Merck in FY2018.
Revenue from sale of rights to sell Keveyis is part of other operating income.
Investment arguments
Strongest ANDA pipeline: Sun Pharma, with the recent acquisitions of DUSA, URL
Pharma and Ranbaxy Laboratories, has now become strong in the US region, with
the geography accounting for 52% of its sales in FY2016. In terms of ANDAs, the
company cumulatively has 424 products, out of which 149 products now await
USFDA approval, including 14 tentative approvals. With the merger of Ranbaxy
Laboratories, the company is now the fifth-largest specialty generics company in
the world (behind Teva, Sandoz, Activas and Mylan). However, the near term
performance of the company has been impacted on back of supply constraints at
the Halol facility although the company has taken redemption measures including
site transfers. Overall, we expect the region to post a CAGR of 14.5% in sales over
FY2016-18E, accounting for almost 49% of the overall sales in FY2018E.
Domestic business: Sun Pharma’s domestic formulation business is among the
fastest growing in the Indian pharmaceutical industry. It contributed 23% to the
company’s total turnover in FY2014. Sun Pharma, with Ranbaxy Laboratories’
merger, is now the segment leader with a market share of 8.7% in the domestic
formulation market, followed by Abbott India, which has a market share of 6.5%.
This is a significant gap considering that the segment is highly fragmented. We
expect the domestic formulation business to post a CAGR of
12.5% over
FY2016-18E, contributing 25% to the overall formulation sales of the company in
FY2018.
February 15, 2017
4
Sun Pharma | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Healthy balance sheet: Sun Pharma has one of the strongest balance sheets in the
sector with cash of
~`15,000cr. The same can continue to support the
Management in inorganic growth and in scouting for acquisitions, especially in the
US and in emerging markets.
Outlook and valuation: Sun Pharma is one of the largest and fastest growing
Indian pharmaceutical companies. We expect its net sales to post a CAGR of
12.7% (including Ranbaxy Laboratories) to `35,258cr and EPS to post a CAGR of
26.5% to `35.3 over FY2016-18E. We recommend a Buy rating on the stock.
Exhibit 6: Key assumptions
FY2017E
FY2018E
Domestic Formulation sales growth (%)
10.0
15.0
Export Formulation sales growth (%)
14.3
13.5
Growth in employee expenses (%)
15.0
20.0
Operating margins (%)
32.0
32.9
Tax as % of PBT
15.0
14.0
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 7: One-year forward PE band
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
-
10x
15x
20x
25x
Source: Company, Angel Research
February 15, 2017
5
Sun Pharma | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 8: Valuation summary
Company
Reco
CMP Tgt. Price Upside
FY2018E
FY16-18E
FY2018E
(`)
(`)
% PE (x) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) CAGR in EPS (%) RoCE (%) RoE (%)
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
558
-
-
18.4
3.0
11.4
(10.8)
27.5
25.3
Aurobindo Pharma Buy
659
877
33.0
13.9
2.7
9.8
18.1
22.5
26.1
Cadila Healthcare
Accum.
366
400
9.4
19.0
3.6
13.3
13.4
22.7
25.7
Cipla
Sell
577
465
(19.4)
23.5
3.2
15.9
14.2
12.2
13.9
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
2,944
-
-
20.6
3.0
11.8
1.7
16.2
15.9
Dishman Pharma
Neutral
216
-
-
19.1
2.5
9.5
13.3
10.3
10.9
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
2,683
-
-
44.5
7.9
32.8
16.9
37.5
34.5
Indoco Remedies
Reduce
266
240
(9.6)
16.6
2.3
10.7
33.2
19.1
20.1
Ipca labs
Buy
523
613
17.2
26.5
2.1
12.0
36.5
8.8
9.4
Lupin
Buy
1,435
1,809
26.0
20.7
4.1
12.7
17.2
24.4
20.9
Sanofi India
Neutral
4,165
-
-
24.2
3.9
17.3
22.2
25.6
28.8
Sun Pharma
Buy
650
847
30.3
18.4
4.6
11.7
26.5
18.9
20.1
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: * December year ending
Company background
Sun Pharma is an international specialty pharma company, with a large presence
in the US and India, and a footprint across 40 other markets. In India and rest of
the world markets, the key chronic therapy areas for the company are cardiology,
psychiatry, neurology, gastroenterology, diabetology, etc. The company is a
market leader in specialty therapy areas in India. In India, the company has
emerged as a leading pharma company, where it is the third largest player. Also,
in the US, a key geography, the company has expanded significantly through both
in-organic and organic routes.
February 15, 2017
6
Sun Pharma | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Profit & Loss statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
Gross sales
16,200
27,652
28,110
31,412
35,578
Less: Excise duty
195
366
366
283
320
Net sales
16,004
27,287
27,744
31,129
35,258
Other operating income
76
147
526
526
526
Total operating income
16,080
27,433
28,270
31,655
35,784
% chg
42.3
70.6
3.0
12.0
13.0
Total expenditure
9,081
19,470
20,473
21,177
23,643
Net raw materials
2,779
6,739
6,483
7,274
8,239
Other mfg costs
699
1,192
1,212
1,360
1,540
Personnel
2,074
4,430
4,797
5,382
6,459
Other
3,528
7,109
7,981
7,160
7,404
EBITDA
6,923
7,817
7,271
9,953
11,615
% chg
41.1
12.9
(7.0)
(18.0)
(14.1)
(% of Net Sales)
43.3
28.6
26.2
32.0
32.9
Depreciation & amort.
409
1,195
1,014
1,214
1,414
EBIT
6,514
6,622
6,783
9,265
10,727
% chg
42.5
1.7
2.4
(15.0)
15.8
(% of Net Sales)
40.7
24.3
24.4
29.8
30.4
Interest & other charges
44
579
477
477
477
Other income
552
451
1,050
1,050
1,050
(% of PBT)
7.8
6.8
14.3
10.7
9.3
Share in profit of Asso.
-
-
-
-
-
Recurring PBT
7,098
6,641
7,356
9,838
11,300
% chg
44.9
-6.4
10.8
(9.9)
0.0
Extraordinary expense/(inc.)
2,517
237.8
590.5
-
-
PBT (reported)
7,098
6,641
6,765
9,848
11,300
Tax
702.2
914.7
934.9
1,477.2
1,695.0
(% of PBT)
9.9
13.8
13.8
15.0
15.0
PAT (reported)
6,396
5,726
5,830
8,371
9,605
Add: Share of earnings of asso.
(13)
(2)
-
-
Less: Minority interest (MI)
738
936
1,111
1,111
1,111
Prior period items
-
-
-
-
-
PAT after MI (reported)
3,141
4,539
4,716
7,260
8,495
ADJ. PAT
5,273
4,743
5,306
7,260
8,495
% chg
52.6
(10.0)
11.9
(5.8)
17.0
(% of Net Sales)
19.6
16.6
0.0
1.0
2.0
Basic EPS (`)
25.5
22.9
22.0
30.2
35.3
Fully Diluted EPS (`)
25.5
22.9
22.0
30.2
35.3
% chg
52.6
(10.0)
(3.7)
(18.9)
17.0
February 15, 2017
7
Sun Pharma | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Balance Sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity share capital
207
207
241
241
241
Preference capital
-
-
-
-
-
Reserves & surplus
18,318
26,300
31,164
38,142
46,355
Shareholders’ funds
18,525
26,507
31,404
38,382
46,595
Minority interest
1,921
2,851
4,085
5,196
6,307
Total loans
2,561
7,596
8,338
8,338
8,338
Deferred tax liability
(911)
(1,752)
(2,126)
(2,126)
(2,126)
Other Long Term Liabilities
9
9
10
10
11
Long Term Provisions
2,602
2,710
2,293
2,221
2,480
Total liabilities
24,707
37,922
44,006
52,022
61,605
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross block
6,389
15,041
18,621
19,621
20,621
Less: Acc. depreciation
3,668
4,863
6,102
7,315
8,729
Net block
2,721
10,179
12,519
12,306
11,892
Capital work-in-progress
842
842
842
303
1,144
Goodwill
4,097
3,701
4,181
4,181
4,181
Investments
2,786
2,716
1,309
1,551
1,388
Long term long & adv.
1,051
2,736
3,032
3,402
3,854
Current assets
16,688
27,005
30,149
38,581
48,415
Cash
7,590
10,998
13,989
20,220
27,947
Loans & advances
3,774
2,193
2,006
2,480
2,481
Other
3,816
13,813
14,154
15,881
17,987
Current liabilities
3,477
9,256
8,026
8,302
9,269
Net current assets
13,211
17,748
22,123
30,279
39,147
Others
-
-
-
-
-
Total assets
24,707
37,922
44,006
52,022
61,605
February 15, 2017
8
Sun Pharma | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
Profit before tax
7,098
6,641
7,356
9,838
11,300
Depreciation
409
1,195
1,014
1,214
1,414
(Inc)/Dec in working capital
(1,782)
(4,322)
(1,680)
(5,059)
(15,053)
Direct taxes paid
702
915
935
1,477
1,695
Cash Flow from Operations
5,024
2,598
5,754
4,515
(4,034)
(Inc.)/Dec.in Fixed Assets
681
(8,653)
(3,580)
(3,141)
(1,842)
(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments
(374)
70
1,408
1,165
163
Other income
-
-
-
-
-
Cash Flow from Investing
306
(8,583)
(2,172)
(1,975)
(1,679)
Issue of Equity
-
-
-
-
-
Inc./(Dec.) in loans
(548)
(4,928)
(1,157)
(1,230)
260
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)
(606)
-
(282)
(282)
(282)
Others
(645)
14,320
847
5,203
13,462
Cash Flow from Financing
(1,799)
9,392
(592)
(2,921)
13,440
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash
3,531
3,408
2,991
6,231
7,727
Opening Cash balances
4,059
7,590
10,998
13,989
20,220
Closing Cash balances
7,590
10,998
13,989
20,220
27,947
February 15, 2017
9
Sun Pharma | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Key Ratios
Y/E March
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS)
25.5
28.4
29.5
21.6
18.4
P/CEPS
37.9
23.5
27.3
18.5
15.8
P/BV
7.3
5.9
4.3
3.5
2.9
Dividend yield (%)
0.4
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
EV/Sales
8.1
4.8
5.5
4.7
3.9
EV/EBITDA
18.7
16.8
20.9
14.6
11.9
EV / Total Assets
5.2
3.5
3.5
2.8
2.2
Per Share Data (`)
EPS (Basic)
25.5
22.9
22.0
30.2
35.3
EPS (fully diluted)
25.5
22.9
22.0
30.2
35.3
Cash EPS
17.1
27.7
23.8
35.2
41.2
DPS
2.5
3.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
Book Value
89.4
110.2
151.6
185.3
225.0
Dupont Analysis
EBIT margin
40.7
24.3
24.4
29.8
30.4
Tax retention ratio
90.1
86.2
86.2
85.0
85.0
Asset turnover (x)
1.1
1.2
1.0
1.1
1.1
ROIC (Post-tax)
40.5
26.1
20.9
28.0
28.3
Cost of Debt (Post Tax)
2.9
9.8
5.2
5.1
9.7
Leverage (x)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Operating ROE
40.5
26.1
20.9
28.0
28.3
Returns (%)
ROCE (Pre-tax)
32.0
21.1
16.6
18.9
18.9
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)
57.4
38.3
28.6
38.4
38.6
ROE
32.3
21.1
18.3
20.0
20.1
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross Block)
2.3
2.6
1.7
1.8
1.8
Inventory / Sales (days)
98
58
78
89
99
Receivables (days)
80
50
77
89
99
Payables (days)
49
61
94
72
72
WC cycle (ex-cash) (days)
91
82
96
92
57
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity
(0.3)
(0.1)
(0.2)
(0.3)
(0.4)
Net debt to EBITDA
(0.7)
(0.4)
(0.8)
(1.2)
(1.7)
Interest Coverage (EBIT/Int.)
-
-
-
-
-
February 15, 2017
10
Sun Pharma | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement
Sun Pharma
1. Financial interest of research analyst or Angel or his Associate or his relative
No
2. Ownership of 1% or more of the stock by research analyst or Angel or associates or relatives
No
3. Served as an officer, director or employee of the company covered under Research
Yes
4. Broking relationship with company covered under Research
No
Ratings (Based on expected returns
Buy (> 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
over 12 months investment period):
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Sell (< -15)
February 15, 2017
11