2QFY2017 Result Update | Pharmaceutical
November 17, 2016
Sun Pharma
BUY
CMP
`683
Performance Highlights
Target Price
`847
(` cr)
2QFY2017 1QFY2017
% chg (qoq) 2QFY2016
% chg (yoy)
Investment Period
12 months
Net sales
7,764
8,007
(3.0)
6,858
13.2
Other income
621
393
57.7
130
376.0
Stock Info
Gross profit
5,924
6,160
(3.8)
5,360
10.5
Sector
Pharmaceutical
Operating profit
2,667
2,685
(0.7)
1,858
43.5
Market Cap (` cr)
164,261
Adj. Net profit
2,235
2,034
9.9
1,029
117.3
Net Debt (` cr)
(6,960)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Beta
0.7
52 Week High / Low
898/572
Sun Pharma posted numbers better than expected on OPM and net profit front.
Avg. Daily Volume
431,125
Sales came in at`7,764cr vs. `7,800cr expected vs. `6,858cr in 2QFY2016,
Face Value (`)
1
posting a yoy growth of 13.2%. On the operating front, the EBITDA margin came
BSE Sensex
26,305
in at 34.3% vs. 30.1% expected and vs. 27.1% in 2QFY2016. Lower expenses
Nifty
8,108
during the quarter aided the OPM expansion. Consequently, the Adj. PAT came
Reuters Code
SUN.BO
in at `2,235cr vs. `1,545cr expected vs. `1,029cr in 2QFY2016, a yoy growth of
117.3%. Apart from better than expected OPM, the company also posted higher
Bloomberg Code
[email protected]
than expected other income (`621cr in 2QFY2017 vs. `226cr in 2QFY2016). We
maintain our Buy rating on the stock.
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Results mostly better than expectations: Sun Pharma posted sales of `7,764cr vs.
Promoters
55.0
`7,800cr expected vs. `6,858cr in 2QFY2016, posting a yoy growth of 13.2%.
MF / Banks / Indian Fls
12.9
India sales at `2,009cr, was up by 11% yoy. US finished dosage sales at
FII / NRIs / OCBs
25.1
US$555mn, was up by 9% yoy. Emerging markets sales stood at US$170mn, up
Indian Public / Others
7.0
by 22% yoy. Rest of World (ROW) sales stood at US$ 79mn, growth of 3% yoy.
On the operating front, the EBITDA margin came in at 34.3% vs. 30.1% expected
and vs. 27.1% in 2QFY2016.Consequently, the Adj. PAT came in at `2,235cr vs.
Abs. (%)
3m 1yr
3yr
`1,545cr expected vs. `1,029cr in 2QFY2016, a yoy growth of 117.3%. Apart
Sensex
(6.6)
2.7
28.9
from better than expected OPM, the company also posted higher than expected
Sun Pharma
(14.9)
(8.0)
13.8
other income (`621cr in 2QFY2017 vs. `226cr in 2QFY2016).
3-year price chart
Outlook and valuation: Sun Pharma is one of the largest and fastest growing
1,200
Indian pharmaceutical companies. We expect its net sales to post a CAGR of
1,000
12.7% (including Ranbaxy Laboratories) to `35,258cr and EPS to post a CAGR of
26.5% to `35.3 over FY2016-18E. We recommend a Buy rating on the stock.
800
Key financials (Consolidated)
600
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
400
Net sales
27,287
27,744
31,129
35,258
200
% chg
70.6
1.7
12.2
13.3
Adj. Net profit
4,743
5,306
7,260
8,495
% chg
(10.0)
11.9
36.8
17.0
Source: Company, Angel Research
EPS (`)
22.9
22.0
30.2
35.3
EBITDA margin (%)
28.6
26.2
32.0
32.9
P/E (x)
29.8
31.0
22.6
19.4
RoE (%)
21.1
18.3
20.0
20.1
RoCE (%)
21.1
16.6
19.0
19.1
P/BV (x)
6.2
4.5
3.7
3.0
Sarabjit Kour Nangra
EV/Sales (x)
5.1
5.8
4.9
4.2
+91 22 39357600 Ext: 6806
EV/EBITDA (x)
17.7
22.0
15.4
12.6
[email protected]
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of November 15, 2016
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
1
Sun Pharma | 2QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 2QFY2017 performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
2QFY2017
1QFY2017
% chg QoQ 2QFY2016
% chg yoy 1HFY2017 1HFY2016
% chg
Net sales
7,764
8,007
(3.0)
6,858
13.2
15,771
13,329
18.3
Other income
620.5
393.4
57.7
130.4
376.0
1,014
566.4
79.0
Total income
8,385
8,400
(0.2)
6,989
20.0
16,785
13,895
20.8
Gross profit
5,924
6,160
(3.8)
5,360
10.5
12,084
10,050
20.2
Gross margin (%)
76.3
76.9
78.2
76.6
75.4
Operating profit
2,667
2,685
(0.7)
1,858
43.5
5,352
3,514
52.3
Operating margin (%)
34.3
33.5
27.1
33.9
26.4
Interest
54
135
(60.1)
158
(66.0)
188
271
(30.5)
Depreciation
304
316
(3.8)
258
17.6
620
511
21.3
Extraordinary item loss/ ( gain)
0
0
0
0
685
PBT
2,930
2,628
11.5
1,572
86.4
5,557
3,298
68.5
Provision for taxation
441.7
352.7
25.2
294.6
31.6
794
562
41.3
PAT before extra-ordinary item
2,488
2,275
9.4
1,277
78.8
4,763
2,736
74.1
Minority interest(MI)
253
241
4.8
248
1.9
446
464
(3.9)
Reported PAT
2,235
2,034
9.9
1,029
117.3
4,269
2,272
87.9
Adj. PAT
2,235
2,034
9.9
1,029
117.3
4,269
1,586
169.2
Adj. EPS (`)
9.3
8.4
4.3
17.7
9.4
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2QFY2017 - Actual V/s Angel estimates
(` cr)
Actual
Estimates
Variance (%)
Net sales
7,764
7,800
(0.5)
Other income
621
226
175.0
Operating profit
2,667
2,350
13.5
Tax
442
353
25.2
Adj. Net profit
2,235
1,545
44.7
Source: Company, Angel Research
Numbers just in line with expectations: Sun Pharma posted numbers better than
expected on OPM and net profit front. Sales came in at `7,764cr vs. `7,800cr
expected vs. `6,858cr in 2QFY2016, posting a yoy growth of 13.2%. India sales at
`2,009cr, was up by 11% yoy. US finished dosage sales at US$555mn, was up by
9% yoy. Emerging markets sales stood at US$170mn, up by 22% yoy. Rest of
World (ROW) sales stood at US$ 79mn, growth of 3% yoy.
Amongst the key markets- India (`2,009cr) posted a growth of 11.0% yoy, US
(US$555mn) posted a growth of 9.0% yoy, Emerging markets (US$170mn) were
up by 22% yoy and ROW (US$79mn) a growth of 3.0% yoy.
Sale of branded formulations in India for 2QFY2017 stood at `2,009cr, up by
11.0% yoy and accounted for 26% of total sales. Sun Pharma is ranked No. 1 and
holds ~8.7% market share in the Rs. 100,000cr pharmaceutical market as per the
September-2016 AIOCD-AWACS report.
Sales in the US came in at US$555mn for the quarter, accounting for 48% of total
sales. Sales in emerging markets were at US$170mn for 2QFY2017, a yoy growth
of 22% and accounted for 15% of total sales. Formulation sales in Rest of World
(ROW) markets excluding US and Emerging markets were US$79mn in
November 17, 2016
2
Sun Pharma | 2QFY2017 Result Update
2QFY2017, a growth of 22.0% yoy and accounted for ~7% of revenues for the
quarter.
The company had a total of 423 ANDAs filed with the USFDA. Currently, ANDAs
for 144 products await USFDA approval, including 13 tentative approvals.
Exhibit 3: Sales trend
7000
6,153
5,755
6000
5,673
5,050
5,212
5000
4000
3000
2,010
1,819
1,890
1,807
1,854
2000
1000
0
2QFY2016
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
2QFY2017
Domestic Formulation
Export Formulation, Bulk and others
Source: Company, Angel Research
OPM at 34.3%; higher than an expected 30.1%: On the operating front, the
EBITDA margin came in at 34.3% vs. 30.1% expected and vs. 27.1% in
2QFY2016. Lower expenses during the quarter aided the OPM expansion.
Employee and other expenses, during the quarter, posted a decline of 2.0%
and 8.0%, respectively. The R&D expenses came in at 7.3% of sales, same in
line with last year, posting a yoy growth of 14.0%.
Exhibit 4: OPM trend (%)
40.0
33.5
34.3
31.0
30.3
30.0
27.1
20.0
10.0
2QFY2016
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
2QFY2017
Source: Company, Angel Research,
Net profit came in higher than our expectation: Consequently, the Adj. PAT came
in at `2,235cr vs. `1,545cr expected vs. `1,029cr in 2QFY2016, a yoy growth of
117.7%. Apart from better than expected OPM, the company also posted higher
than expected other income (`621cr in 2QFY2017 vs. `226cr in 2QFY2016).
November 17, 2016
3
Sun Pharma | 2QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 5: Adjusted Net profit trend (` cr)
3,000
2,500
2,235
2,034
2,034
2,000
1,417
1,500
1,029
1,000
500
0
2QFY2016
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
2QFY2017
Source: Company, Angel Research
Concall takeaways
Management guided that the company has completed the remediation
process and has re-invited the USFDA for a re-inspection, though the timing of
the re-inspection and potential clearance thereafter remains unpredictable.
Ranbaxy integration is progressing ahead of management’s expected
timelines, and management expects the acquisition to deliver synergies of
US$300mn by FY2018. The focus areas for integration include cGMP
compliance, sourcing efficiencies as well as revenue synergies.
NLEM impact to be ~`1,500cr in FY2017.
Management also guided on pressures in the domestic market on account of
WPI-led price cuts on NLEM portfolio, though it expects growth to revive in the
coming quarters.
R&D expenses to be 9% in FY2017.
Investment arguments
Strongest ANDA pipeline: Sun Pharma, with the recent acquisitions of DUSA, URL
Pharma and Ranbaxy Laboratories, has now become strong in the US region, with
the geography accounting for 52% of its sales in FY2016. In terms of ANDAs, the
company cumulatively has 423 products, out of which 144 products now await
USFDA approval, including 13 tentative approvals. With the merger of Ranbaxy
Laboratories, the company is now the fifth-largest specialty generics company in
the world (behind Teva, Sandoz, Activas and Mylan). However, the near term
performance of the company has been impacted on back of supply constraints at
the Halol facility, although the company has taken redemption measures including
site transfers. Overall, we expect the region to post a CAGR of 14.5% in sales over
FY2016-18E, accounting for almost 49% of the overall sales in FY2018E.
Domestic business: Sun Pharma’s domestic formulation business is among the
fastest growing in the Indian pharmaceutical industry. It contributed 23% to the
company’s total turnover in FY2014. Sun Pharma, with Ranbaxy Laboratories’
November 17, 2016
4
Sun Pharma | 2QFY2017 Result Update
merger, is now the segment leader with a market share of 8.7% in the domestic
formulation market, followed by Abbott India which has a market share of 6.5%.
This is a significant gap considering that the segment is highly fragmented. We
expect the domestic formulation business to post a CAGR of 12.5% over FY2016-
18E, contributing 25% to the overall formulation sales of the company in FY2018.
Healthy balance sheet: Sun Pharma has one of the strongest balance sheets in the
sector with cash of
~`15,000cr. The same can continue to support the
Management in inorganic growth and in scouting for acquisitions, especially in the
US and in emerging markets.
Outlook and valuation: Sun Pharma is one of the largest and fastest growing
Indian pharmaceutical companies. We expect its net sales to post a CAGR of
12.7% (including Ranbaxy Laboratories) to `35,258cr and EPS to post a CAGR of
26.5% to `35.3 over FY2016-18E. We recommend a Buy rating on the stock.
Exhibit 6: Key assumptions
FY2017E
FY2018E
Domestic Formulation sales growth (%)
10.0
15.0
Export Formulation sales growth (%)
14.3
13.5
Growth in employee expenses (%)
15.0
20.0
Operating margins (%)
32.0
32.9
Tax as % of PBT
15.0
14.0
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 7: One-year forward PE band
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
-
10x
15x
20x
25x
Source: Company, Angel Research
November 17, 2016
5
Sun Pharma | 2QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 8: Valuation summary
Company
Reco
CMP Tgt. price Upside
FY2018E
FY16-18E
FY2018E
(`)
(`)
% PE (x) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) CAGR in EPS (%) RoCE (%) RoE (%)
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
631
-
-
20.7
2.8
13.0
(10.8)
27.5
25.3
Aurobindo Pharma Buy
733
877
19.7
15.5
2.7
11.5
18.1
22.5
26.1
Cadila Healthcare
Accumulate
358
400
11.7
18.7
2.9
13.0
13.4
22.7
25.7
Cipla
Neutral
553
-
-
20.3
2.6
14.0
20.4
13.5
15.2
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
3,309
-
-
22.9
2.9
13.3
1.7
16.2
15.9
Dishman Pharma
Neutral
229
-
-
20.2
3.0
10.0
3.1
10.3
10.9
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
2,650
-
-
43.6
6.6
32.0
17.3
35.3
32.1
Indoco Remedies
Sell
286
240
(18.5)
17.9
2.1
11.5
33.2
19.1
20.1
Ipca labs
Accumulate
540
613
13.4
27.5
1.9
12.4
36.5
8.8
9.4
Lupin
Buy
1,440
1,809
25.6
20.8
3.4
12.8
17.2
24.4
20.9
Sanofi India*
Neutral
4,253
-
-
24.7
2.6
17.7
22.2
24.9
28.8
Sun Pharma
Buy
683
847
24.0
19.4
4.2
12.6
26.5
19.1
20.1
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: * December year ending
Company background
Sun Pharma is an international specialty pharma company, with a large presence
in the US and India, and a footprint across 40 other markets. In India and rest of
the world markets, the key chronic therapy areas for the company are cardiology,
psychiatry, neurology, gastroenterology, diabetology etc. The company is a market
leader in specialty therapy areas in India. In India, the company has emerged as a
leading pharma company, where it is the third largest player. Also, in the US, a
key geography, the company has expanded significantly through both in-organic
and organic routes.
November 17, 2016
6
Sun Pharma | 2QFY2017 Result Update
Profit & Loss statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
Gross sales
16,200
27,652
28,110
31,412
35,578
Less: Excise duty
195
366
366
283
320
Net sales
16,004
27,287
27,744
31,129
35,258
Other operating income
76
147
526
526
526
Total operating income
16,080
27,433
28,270
31,655
35,784
% chg
42.3
70.6
3.0
12.0
13.0
Total expenditure
9,081
19,470
20,473
21,177
23,643
Net raw materials
2,779
6,739
6,483
7,274
8,239
Other mfg costs
699
1,192
1,212
1,360
1,540
Personnel
2,074
4,430
4,797
5,382
6,459
Other
3,528
7,109
7,981
7,160
7,404
EBITDA
6,923
7,817
7,271
9,953
11,615
% chg
41.1
12.9
-7.0
-18.0
-14.1
(% of Net Sales)
43.3
28.6
26.2
32.0
32.9
Depreciation & amort.
409
1,195
1,014
1,214
1,414
EBIT
6,514
6,622
6,783
9,265
10,727
% chg
42.5
1.7
2.4
(15.0)
15.8
(% of Net Sales)
40.7
24.3
24.4
29.8
30.4
Interest & other charges
44
579
477
477
477
Other income
552
451
1,050
1,050
1,050
(% of PBT)
7.8
6.8
14.3
10.7
9.3
Share in profit of Asso.
-
-
-
Recurring PBT
7,098
6,641
7,356
9,838
11,300
% chg
44.9
-6.4
10.8
(9.9)
0.0
Extraordinary expense/(inc.)
2,517
237.8
590.5
-
-
PBT (reported)
7,098
6,641
6,765
9,848
11,300
Tax
702.2
914.7
934.9
1,477.2
1,695.0
(% of PBT)
9.9
13.8
13.8
15.0
15.0
PAT (reported)
6,396
5,726
5,830
8,371
9,605
Add: Share of earnings of asso.
(13)
(2)
-
-
Less: Minority interest (MI)
738
936
1,111
1,111
1,111
Prior period items
-
-
-
-
-
PAT after MI (reported)
3,141
4,539
4,716
7,260
8,495
ADJ. PAT
5,273
4,743
5,306
7,260
8,495
% chg
52.6
(10.0)
11.9
(5.8)
17.0
(% of Net Sales)
19.6
16.6
0.0
1.0
2.0
Basic EPS (`)
25.5
22.9
22.0
30.2
35.3
Fully Diluted EPS (`)
25.5
22.9
22.0
30.2
35.3
% chg
52.6
(10.0)
(3.7)
(18.9)
17.0
November 17, 2016
7
Sun Pharma | 2QFY2017 Result Update
Balance Sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity share capital
207
207
241
241
241
Preference capital
-
-
-
-
-
Reserves & surplus
18,318
26,300
31,164
38,142
46,355
Shareholders’ funds
18,525
26,507
31,404
38,382
46,595
Minority interest
1,921
2,851
4,085
5,196
6,307
Total loans
2,561
7,596
8,338
8,338
8,338
Deferred tax liability
(911)
(1,752)
(2,126)
(2,126)
(2,126)
Other Long Term Liabilities
9
9
10
10
11
Long Term Provisions
2,602
2,710
2,293
2,221
2,480
Total liabilities
24,707
37,922
44,006
52,022
61,605
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross block
6,389
15,041
18,621
19,621
20,621
Less: Acc. depreciation
3,668
4,863
6,102
7,315
8,729
Net block
2,721
10,179
12,519
12,306
11,892
Capital work-in-progress
842
842
842
303
1,144
Goodwill
4,097
3,701
4,181
4,181
4,181
Investments
2,786
2,716
1,309
1,551
1,388
Long term long & adv.
1,051
2,736
3,032
3,402
3,854
Current assets
16,688
27,005
30,149
38,581
48,415
Cash
7,590
10,998
13,989
20,220
27,947
Loans & advances
3,774
2,193
2,006
2,480
2,481
Other
3,816
13,813
14,154
15,881
17,987
Current liabilities
3,477
9,256
8,026
8,302
9,269
Net current assets
13,211
17,748
22,123
30,279
39,147
Others
-
-
-
-
-
Total assets
24,707
37,922
44,006
52,022
61,605
November 17, 2016
8
Sun Pharma | 2QFY2017 Result Update
Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
Profit before tax
7,098
6,641
7,356
9,838
11,300
Depreciation
409
1,195
1,014
1,214
1,414
(Inc)/Dec in working capital
(1,782)
(4,322)
(1,680)
(5,059)
(15,053)
Direct taxes paid
702
915
935
1,477
1,695
Cash Flow from Operations
5,024
2,598
5,754
4,515
(4,034)
(Inc.)/Dec.in Fixed Assets
681
(8,653)
(3,580)
(3,141)
(1,842)
(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments
(374)
70
1,408
1,165
163
Other income
-
-
-
-
-
Cash Flow from Investing
306
(8,583)
(2,172)
(1,975)
(1,679)
Issue of Equity
-
-
-
-
-
Inc./(Dec.) in loans
(548)
(4,928)
(1,157)
(1,230)
260
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)
(606)
-
(282)
(282)
(282)
Others
(645)
14,320
847
5,203
13,462
Cash Flow from Financing
(1,799)
9,392
(592)
(2,921)
13,440
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash
3,531
3,408
2,991
6,231
7,727
Opening Cash balances
4,059
7,590
10,998
13,989
20,220
Closing Cash balances
7,590
10,998
13,989
20,220
27,947
November 17, 2016
9
Sun Pharma | 2QFY2017 Result Update
Key Ratios
Y/E March
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS)
26.8
29.8
31.0
22.6
19.4
P/CEPS
39.8
24.7
28.7
19.4
16.6
P/BV
7.6
6.2
4.5
3.7
3.0
Dividend yield (%)
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.1
EV/Sales
8.5
5.1
5.8
4.9
4.1
EV/EBITDA
19.7
17.7
22.0
15.4
12.6
EV / Total Assets
5.5
3.6
3.6
2.9
2.4
Per Share Data (`)
EPS (Basic)
25.5
22.9
22.0
30.2
35.3
EPS (fully diluted)
25.5
22.9
22.0
30.2
35.3
Cash EPS
17.1
27.7
23.8
35.2
41.2
DPS
2.5
3.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
Book Value
89.4
110.2
151.6
185.3
225.0
Dupont Analysis
EBIT margin
40.7
24.3
24.4
29.8
30.4
Tax retention ratio
90.1
86.2
86.2
85.0
85.0
Asset turnover (x)
1.1
1.2
1.0
1.1
1.1
ROIC (Post-tax)
40.5
26.1
20.9
28.0
28.3
Cost of Debt (Post Tax)
2.9
9.8
5.2
5.1
9.7
Leverage (x)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Operating ROE
40.5
26.1
20.9
28.0
28.3
Returns (%)
ROCE (Pre-tax)
32.0
21.1
16.6
18.9
18.9
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)
57.4
38.3
28.6
38.4
38.6
ROE
32.3
21.1
18.3
20.0
20.1
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross Block)
2.3
2.6
1.7
1.8
1.8
Inventory / Sales (days)
98
58
78
89
99
Receivables (days)
80
50
77
89
99
Payables (days)
49
61
94
72
72
WC cycle (ex-cash) (days)
91
82
96
92
57
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity
(0.3)
(0.1)
(0.2)
(0.3)
(0.4)
Net debt to EBITDA
(0.7)
(0.4)
(0.8)
(1.2)
(1.7)
Interest Coverage (EBIT/Int.)
-
-
-
-
-
November 17, 2016
10
Sun Pharma | 2QFY2017 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months.
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Disclosure of Interest Statement
Sun Pharma
1. Financial interest of research analyst or Angel or his Associate or his relative
No
2. Ownership of 1% or more of the stock by research analyst or Angel or associates or relatives
No
3. Served as an officer, director or employee of the company covered under Research
No
4. Broking relationship with company covered under Research
No
Ratings (Based on expected returns
Buy (> 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
over 12 months investment period):
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Sell (< -15)
November 17, 2016
11