1QFY2017 Result Update | Pharmaceutical
August 17, 2016
Sun Pharma
BUY
CMP
`783
Performance Highlights
Target Price
`944
(` cr)
1QFY2017 4QFY2016
% chg QoQ 1QFY2016
% chg yoy
Investment Period
12 months
Net sales
8,007
7,414
8.0
6,527
22.7
Other income
393
185
112.3
399
(1.3)
Stock Info
Gross profit
6,160
5,962
3.3
4,836
27.4
Sector
Pharmaceutical
Operating profit
2,685
2,300
16.7
1,533
75.1
Market Cap (` cr)
1,88,437
Adj. Net profit
2,034
1,714
18.7
1,070
90.1
Net Debt (` cr)
(6,960)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Beta
0.7
52 Week High / Low
965/706
The company’s sales for 1QFY2017 came in higher than expected at
Avg. Daily Volume
4,13,072
`8,007cr V/s `7,414cr expected and V/s `6,526cr in 1QFY2016, a yoy
Face Value (`)
1
growth of 22.7%, mainly driven by exports. On the operating front, the
BSE Sensex
28,065
EBITDA margin came in at 33.5% V/s 29.5% expected and V/s 23.5% in
Nifty
8,643
1QFY2016, mainly driven by gross margin expansion (76.9% in 1QFY2017
Reuters Code
SUN.BO
V/s 74.1% in 1QFY2016). Thus, the Adj. net profit came in at `2,034cr V/s
`1,602cr expected and V/s `1,070cr in 1QFY2016. We maintain our Buy
Bloomberg Code
[email protected]
rating.
Results outperform: Company’s sales for 1QFY2017 came in higher than
Shareholding Pattern (%)
expected at `8,007cr V/s `7,414cr expected and V/s `6,526cr in 1QFY2016, a
Promoters
55.0
yoy growth of 22.7%, mainly driven by exports. Export formulations (`5,664cr)
MF / Banks / Indian Fls
12.9
grew 25.6% yoy, while Indian formulations (`1,854cr) grew 7.6% yoy. API sales
FII / NRIs / OCBs
25.1
(`470cr) grew 73.1% yoy. On the operating front, the EBITDA margin came in at
Indian Public / Others
7.0
33.5% V/s 29.5% expected and V/s 23.5% in 1QFY2016, mainly driven by gross
margin expansion
(76.9% in 1QFY2017 V/s
74.1% in 1QFY2016). R&D
expenditure during the quarter was
9.1% of sales V/s
5.5% of sales in
Abs. (%)
3m 1yr
3yr
1QFY2016. Thus, the Adj. net profit came in at `2,034cr V/s `1,602cr expected
Sensex
9.4
(0.0)
50.9
and V/s `1,070cr in 1QFY2016.
Sun Pharma
8.3
67.0
609.0
Outlook and valuation: Sun Pharma is one of the largest and fastest growing
3-year price chart
Indian pharmaceutical companies. We expect its net sales to post a 12.7% CAGR
1,200
(including Ranbaxy Laboratories) to `35,258cr and EPS to post a 22.0% CAGR to
1,100
1,000
`32.8 over FY2016-18E. We recommend a Buy on the stock.
900
800
Key financials (Consolidated)
700
600
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
500
Net sales
27,287
27,744
31,129
35,258
400
300
% chg
70.6
1.7
12.2
13.3
200
Adj. Net profit
4,743
5,306
6,735
7,895
% chg
(10.0)
11.9
26.9
17.2
EPS (`)
22.9
22.0
28.0
32.8
Source: Company, Angel Research
EBITDA margin (%)
28.6
26.2
30.0
30.9
P/E (x)
35.0
36.4
28.7
24.4
RoE (%)
21.1
18.3
18.7
18.9
RoCE (%)
21.1
16.6
17.7
33.1
P/BV (x)
7.3
5.3
4.4
3.7
Sarabjit Kour Nangra
EV/Sales (x)
6.0
6.8
5.8
5.0
+91 22 39357600 Ext: 6806
EV/EBITDA (x)
20.8
25.9
19.5
16.1
[email protected]
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of August 16, 2016
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
1
Sun Pharma | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 1QFY2017 performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
1QFY2017
4QFY2016
% chg QoQ 1QFY2016
% chg yoy
FY2016
FY2015
% chg
Net sales
8,007
7,414
8.0
6,527
22.7
27,744
27,287
1.7%
Other income
393.4
185.3
112.3
398.8
(1.3)
984.8
599.0
64.4
Total income
8,400
7,599
10.5
6,926
21.3
28,729
27,886
3.0
Gross profit
6,160
5,962
3.3
4,836
27.4
21,261
20,547
3.5
Gross margin (%)
76.9
80.4
74.1
76.6
75.3
Operating profit
2,685
2,300
16.7
1,533
75.1
7,271
7,679
(5.3)
Operating margin (%)
33.5
31.0
23.5
26.2
28.1
Interest
135
89
52.0
135
0.1
477
579
(17.6)
Depreciation
316
264
19.5
240
31.5
1,014
1,295
(21.7)
Extraordinary item loss/ ( gain)
0
0
685
-590
-204
PBT
2,628
2,132
23.2
872
201.3
6,765
6,404
5.6
Provision for taxation
352.7
170.6
106.8
113
212.8
935
915
2.2
PAT before extra-ordinary item
2,275
1,962
15.9
759
199.6
5,830
5,489
6.2
Minority interest(MI)
241
248
(2.9)
203
18.5
1,114
949
17.5
Reported PAT
2,034
1,714
18.7
1,070
90.1
4,716
4,540
3.9
Adj. PAT
2,034
1,714
18.7
556
265.8
5,306
4,743
11.9
Adj. EPS (`)
8.4
7.1
2.3
22.0
19.7
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 1QFY2017 - Actual V/s Angel estimates
(` cr)
Actual
Estimates
Variance (%)
Net sales
8,007
7,414
8.0
Other income
393
185
112.3
Operating profit
2,685
2,190
22.6
Tax
353
171
106.7
Adj. Net profit
2,034
1,602
26.9
Source: Company, Angel Research
Better than expected performance: Company’s sales for 1QFY2017 came in higher
than expected at `8,007cr V/s `7,414cr expected and V/s `6,526cr in 1QFY2016,
a yoy growth of 22.7%, mainly driven by exports. Amongst key markets- India
(`1,854cr) posted a growth of 7.6% yoy, US (US$609mn) posted a growth of 25%
yoy, Emerging Markets (US$154mn) were up 16% yoy and ROW (US$84mn) was
down 7.3% yoy.
Sale of branded formulations in India for 1QFY2017 stood at `1,854cr, up 7.6%
yoy and accounted for 23% of total sales. Withdrawal of bonus offers continues to
adversely impact sales in the acute segment. Sun Pharma is ranked No. 1 and
holds ~8.7% market share in the `1,00,000cr pharmaceutical market as per the
March-2016 AIOCD-AWACS report.
Sales in the US came in at US$609mn for the quarter (accounting for 51% of the
company’s total sales) boosted primarily due to the benefit of the 180-day
exclusivity for Imatinib which commenced from 01-Feb-2016. At the same time,
Taro posted 1QFY2017 sales of US$234mn, up 9.0% over 1QFY2016.
August 17, 2016
2
Sun Pharma | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Sales in Emerging markets were at US$154mn for 1QFY2017, up 16% yoy, and
accounted for 13% of total sales. Formulation sales in Rest of World (ROW)
markets excluding US and Emerging Markets were US$84mn in 1QFY2017, a de-
growth of 7.3% yoy. ROW markets accounted for ~7% of revenues for 1QFY2017.
The company had a total of 417 ANDAs filed with the USFDA. Currently, ANDAs
for 150 products await USFDA approval, including 15 tentative approvals.
Exhibit 3: Sales trend
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1QFY2016
2QFY2016
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
Domestic Formulation
Export Formulation, Bulk and others
Source: Company, Angel Research
OPM at 33.5%; higher than an expected 29.5%: On the operating front, the
EBITDA margin came in at 33.5% V/s 29.5% expected and V/s 23.5% in
1QFY2016, mainly driven by gross margin expansion (76.9% in 1QFY2017
V/s 74.1% in 1QFY2016). R&D expenditure during the quarter was 9.1% of
sales in 1QFY2017 V/s 5.5% of sales in 1QFY2016.
Exhibit 4: OPM trend (%)
35.0
33.5
31.0
30.3
30.0
27.9
25.0
23.5
20.0
1QFY2016
2QFY2016
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note- post 4QFY2015 numbers are of merged entity
Net profit came in higher than our expectation: Thus, the Adj. net profit came in at
`2,034cr V/s `1,602cr expected and V/s `1,070cr in 1QFY2016.
August 17, 2016
3
Sun Pharma | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 5: Adjusted Net profit trend (`cr)
2,500
2,034
2,000
1,714
1,417
1,500
1,070
1,107
1,000
500
0
1QFY2016
2QFY2016
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
Source: Company, Angel Research
Concall takeaways
The company is on track to achieve US$300mn from Ranbaxy synergies by
FY2018E; a part of it will also be in FY2017.
NLEM impact to be ~`1,500cr in FY2017.
Halol remediation over; the company has invited USFDA for re-inspection.
Restructuring exercise in domestic business largely over; growth to recover
from 2QFY2017.
Tax rate guidance of 14-15% provided for FY2017.
Investment arguments
Strongest ANDA pipeline: Sun Pharma, with the recent acquisitions of DUSA, URL
Pharma and Ranbaxy Laboratories, has now become strong in the US region, with
the geography accounting for 52% of its sales in FY2016. In terms of ANDAs, the
company cumulatively has 417 products, out of which 150 products now await
USFDA approval, including 15 tentative approvals. With the merger of Ranbaxy
Laboratories, the company is now the fifth-largest specialty generics company in
the world (behind Teva, Sandoz, Activas and Mylan). However, the near term
performance of the company has been impacted on back of supply constraints at
the Halol facility, although the company has taken redemption measures including
site transfers. Overall, we expect the region to post a 14.5% CAGR in sales over
FY2016-18E, accounting for almost 49% of the overall sales in FY2018E.
Domestic Business: Sun Pharma’s domestic formulation business is among the
fastest growing in the Indian pharmaceutical industry. It contributed 23% to the
company’s total turnover in FY2014. Sun Pharma is ranked second and holds a
market share of 5.4% in the domestic formulation market, with exposure to
psychiatry, neurology, CVS, diabetic and gastroenterology segments. With Ranbaxy
Laboratories’ merger, the company is now the segment leader with a 9.2% market
share in the domestic formulation market, followed by Abbott India which has a
market share of 6.5%. This is a significant gap considering that the segment is
highly fragmented. We expect the domestic formulation business to post a CAGR
August 17, 2016
4
Sun Pharma | 1QFY2017 Result Update
of 12.5% over FY2016-18E, thus contributing by 25% to the overall formulation
sales of the company in FY2018.
Healthy balance sheet: Sun Pharma has one of the strongest balance sheets in the
sector with cash of
~`15,000cr. The same can continue to support the
Management in inorganic growth and in scouting for acquisitions, especially in the
US and in emerging markets.
Outlook and valuation: Sun Pharma is one of the largest and fastest growing
Indian pharmaceutical companies. We expect its net sales to post a 12.7% CAGR
(including Ranbaxy Laboratories) to `35,258cr and EPS to post a 22.0% CAGR to
`32.8 over FY2016-18E. We recommend a Buy on the stock.
Exhibit 6: Key assumptions
FY2017E
FY2018E
Domestic Formulation sales growth (%)
10.0
15.0
Export Formulation sales growth (%)
14.3
13.5
Growth in employee expenses (%)
15.0
20.0
Operating margins (%)
30.0
30.9
Tax as % of PBT
15.0
15.0
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 7: One-year forward PE band
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
-
10x
15x
20x
25x
Source: Company, Angel Research
August 17, 2016
5
Sun Pharma | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 8: Valuation summary
Company
Reco
CMP Tgt. price Upside
FY2018E
FY16-18E
FY2018E
(`)
(`)
% PE (x) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) CAGR in EPS (%) RoCE (%) RoE (%)
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
647
-
-
21.3
2.8
13.3
(10.8)
27.5
25.3
Aurobindo Pharma Buy
735
877
19.3
15.5
2.6
10.8
18.1
22.5
26.1
Cadila Healthcare
Accumulate
364
400
9.9
18.2
2.7
12.4
15.8
24.3
26.6
Cipla
Reduce
554
490
(11.5)
20.4
2.6
14.0
20.4
13.5
15.2
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
3,008
-
-
19.1
2.8
11.2
6.9
18.1
17.1
Dishman Pharma
Sell
170
45
(73.6)
15.1
1.8
7.7
3.1
10.3
10.9
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
3,049
-
-
51.3
6.6
35.1
15.9
35.8
31.8
Indoco Remedies
Sell
306
225
(26.5)
19.6
2.3
12.5
31.5
19.1
19.2
Ipca labs
Buy
517
613
18.6
26.2
1.8
11.9
36.5
8.8
9.4
Lupin
Accumulate
1,590
1,809
13.8
22.9
3.8
14.1
17.2
24.4
20.9
Sanofi India
Neutral
4,343
-
-
25.7
3.2
18.5
21.2
24.9
28.4
Sun Pharma
Buy
783
944
20.6
23.9
4.8
15.5
22.0
33.1
18.9
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: * December year ending
Company background
Sun Pharma is an international specialty pharma company, with a large presence
in the US and India, and a footprint across 40 other markets. In India and rest of
the world markets, the key chronic therapy areas for the company are cardiology,
psychiatry, neurology, gastroenterology, diabetology etc. The company is a market
leader in specialty therapy areas in India. In India, the company has emerged as a
leading pharma company where it is the third largest player. Also, in the US, a key
geography, the company has expanded significantly through both in-organic and
organic routes.
August 17, 2016
6
Sun Pharma | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Profit & Loss statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
Gross sales
16,200
27,652
28,110
31,412
35,578
Less: Excise duty
195
366
366
283
320
Net sales
16,004
27,287
27,744
31,129
35,258
Other operating income
76
147
526
526
526
Total operating income
16,080
27,433
28,270
31,655
35,784
% chg
42.3
70.6
3.0
12.0
13.0
Total expenditure
9,081
19,470
20,473
21,799
24,348
Net raw materials
2,779
6,739
6,483
7,274
8,239
Other mfg costs
699
1,192
1,212
1,360
1,540
Personnel
2,074
4,430
4,797
5,382
6,459
Other
3,528
7,109
7,981
7,782
8,109
EBITDA
6,923
7,817
7,271
9,330
10,910
% chg
41.1
12.9
-7.0
-23.2
-19.3
(% of Net Sales)
43.3
28.6
26.2
30.0
30.9
Depreciation & amort.
409
1,195
1,014
1,214
1,414
EBIT
6,514
6,622
6,783
8,642
10,022
% chg
42.5
1.7
2.4
(20.7)
16.0
(% of Net Sales)
40.7
24.3
24.4
27.8
28.4
Interest & other charges
44
579
477
477
477
Other income
552
451
1,050
1,050
1,050
(% of PBT)
7.8
6.8
14.3
11.4
9.9
Share in profit of Asso.
-
-
-
Recurring PBT
7,098
6,641
7,356
9,215
10,595
% chg
44.9
-6.4
10.8
-15.6
0.0
Extraordinary expense/(inc.)
2,517
237.8
590.5
-
-
PBT (reported)
7,098
6,641
6,765
9,231
10,595
Tax
702.2
914.7
934.9
1,384.6
1,589.3
(% of PBT)
9.9
13.8
13.8
15.0
15.0
PAT (reported)
6,396
5,726
5,830
7,846
9,006
Add: Share of earnings of asso.
(13)
(2)
-
-
Less: Minority interest (MI)
738
936
1,111
1,111
1,111
Prior period items
-
-
-
PAT after MI (reported)
3,141
4,539
4,716
6,735
7,895
ADJ. PAT
5,273
4,743
5,306
6,735
7,895
% chg
52.6
(10.0)
11.9
(12.6)
17.2
(% of Net Sales)
19.6
16.6
0.0
1.0
2.0
Basic EPS (`)
25.5
22.9
22.0
28.0
32.8
Fully Diluted EPS (`)
25.5
22.9
22.0
28.0
32.8
% chg
52.6
(10.0)
(3.7)
(24.8)
17.2
August 17, 2016
7
Sun Pharma | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Balance Sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity share capital
207
207
241
241
241
Preference capital
Reserves & surplus
18,318
26,300
31,164
37,617
45,231
Shareholders’ funds
18,525
26,507
31,404
37,858
45,472
Minority interest
1,921
2,851
4,085
5,196
6,307
Total loans
2,561
7,596
8,338
8,338
8,338
Deferred tax liability
(911)
(1,752)
(2,126)
(2,126)
(2,126)
Other Long Term Liabilities
9
9
10
10
11
Long Term Provisions
2,602
2,710
2,293
2,287
2,554
Total liabilities
24,707
37,922
44,005
51,563
60,555
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross block
6,389
15,041
18,621
19,621
20,621
Less: Acc. depreciation
3,668
4,863
6,102
7,315
8,729
Net block
2,721
10,179
12,519
12,306
11,892
Capital work-in-progress
842
842
842
303
1,144
Goodwill
4,097
3,701
4,181
4,181
4,181
Investments
2,786
2,716
1,309
1,551
1,388
Long term long & adv.
1,051
2,736
3,032
3,402
3,854
Current assets
16,688
27,005
30,149
38,366
47,641
Cash
7,590
10,998
13,989
20,005
27,173
Loans & advances
3,774
2,193
2,006
2,480
2,481
Other
3,816
13,813
14,154
15,881
17,987
Current liabilities
3,477
9,256
8,026
8,546
9,545
Net current assets
13,211
17,748
22,123
29,820
38,096
Others
-
-
-
-
-
Total assets
24,707
37,922
44,005
51,563
60,555
August 17, 2016
8
Sun Pharma | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E FY2018E
Profit before tax
7,098
6,641
7,356
9,215
10,595
Depreciation
409
1,195
1,014
1,214
1,414
(Inc)/Dec in working capital
(1,782)
(4,322)
(1,680)
(4,815)
(14,776)
Direct taxes paid
702
915
935
1,385
1,589
Cash Flow from Operations
5,024
2,598
5,754
4,229
(4,357)
(Inc.)/Dec.in Fixed Assets
681
(8,653)
(3,580)
(3,141)
(1,842)
(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments
(374)
70
1,408
1,165
163
Other income
-
-
-
-
-
Cash Flow from Investing
306
(8,583)
(2,172)
(1,975)
(1,679)
Issue of Equity
-
-
-
-
-
Inc./(Dec.) in loans
(548)
(4,928)
(1,157)
(1,165)
268
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)
(606)
-
(282)
(282)
(282)
Others
(645)
14,320
847
(1,404)
13,217
Cash Flow from Financing
(1,799)
9,392
(592)
(2,850)
13,204
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash
3,531
3,408
2,991
(596)
7,168
Opening Cash balances
4,059
7,590
10,998
20,601
20,005
Closing Cash balances
7,590
10,998
13,989
20,005
27,173
August 17, 2016
9
Sun Pharma | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Key Ratios
Y/E March
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS)
31.5
35.0
36.4
28.7
24.4
P/CEPS
46.8
29.0
33.7
24.3
20.7
P/BV
9.0
7.3
5.3
4.4
3.7
Dividend yield (%)
0.3
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.1
EV/Sales
10.1
6.0
6.8
5.8
5.0
EV/EBITDA
23.2
20.8
25.9
19.5
16.1
EV / Total Assets
6.5
4.3
4.3
3.5
2.9
Per Share Data (`)
EPS (Basic)
25.5
22.9
22.0
28.0
32.8
EPS (fully diluted)
25.5
22.9
22.0
28.0
32.8
Cash EPS
17.1
27.7
23.8
33.0
38.7
DPS
2.5
3.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
Book Value
89.4
110.2
151.6
182.8
219.5
Dupont Analysis
EBIT margin
40.7
24.3
24.4
27.8
28.4
Tax retention ratio
90.1
86.2
86.2
85.0
85.0
Asset turnover (x)
1.1
1.2
1.0
1.1
1.1
ROIC (Post-tax)
40.5
26.1
20.9
26.2
26.6
Cost of Debt (Post Tax)
2.9
9.8
5.2
5.1
9.7
Leverage (x)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Operating ROE
40.5
26.1
20.9
26.2
26.6
Returns (%)
ROCE (Pre-tax)
32.0
21.1
16.6
17.7
33.1
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)
57.4
38.3
28.6
36.0
71.4
ROE
32.3
21.1
18.3
18.7
18.9
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross Block)
2.3
2.6
1.7
1.8
1.8
Inventory / Sales (days)
98
58
78
88
97
Receivables (days)
80
50
77
88
97
Payables (days)
49
61
94
72
72
WC cycle (ex-cash) (days)
91
82
96
91
56
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity
(0.3)
(0.1)
(0.2)
(0.3)
(0.4)
Net debt to EBITDA
(0.7)
(0.4)
(0.8)
(1.3)
(1.7)
Interest Coverage (EBIT/Int.)
-
-
-
-
-
August 17, 2016
10
Sun Pharma | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months.
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Disclosure of Interest Statement
Sun Pharma
1. Financial interest of research analyst or Angel or his Associate or his relative
No
2. Ownership of 1% or more of the stock by research analyst or Angel or associates or relatives
No
3. Served as an officer, director or employee of the company covered under Research
No
4. Broking relationship with company covered under Research
No
Ratings (Based on expected returns
Buy (> 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
over 12 months investment period):
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Sell (< -15)
August 17, 2016
11