Interim Budget 2019 - 20 Review
Fiscal Slippage a much needed fiscal stimulus
Fiscal deficit for FY19 at 3.4% was
As expected, this interim Budget turned out to be much more than expected. There
below estimates while FY20 fiscal deficit
was a fiscal slippage in FY19 to 3.4% against budgeted estimates of 3.3%, though
at 3.4% was above estimate.
it was less than market estimates of 3.5%. However, fiscal deficit for FY2020 at
3.4% was ahead of market estimates and significantly ahead of 3.1% as mandated
by the FRBM Act.
Expansionary budget would stimulate
We believe that tight fiscal and monetary policy over the past few years coupled
growth without stoking inflation
with major structural changes have taken a toll on growth and the dynamics are
not conducive for an inflationary environment. On the contrary, we believe that
slippage of 30bps for FY20 (in relation to FRBM mandated rate) was a much
needed fiscal stimulus and would actually go a long way in addressing the current
rural distress and stimulating growth without stoking inflation.
Budget was focused on addressing agri distress
The interim Budget was rural focused, which was on the expected lines, given the
recent loss by the incumbent government in some of the key states like Rajasthan,
Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. One of the primary reasons for the losses in
the assembly elections was anger against the incumbent government for failing to
address agri distress effectively.
Farm income support a better and more
For the first time an income support scheme was introduced as conventional
effective scheme then
conventional
measures like MSP hikes and farm loan waivers have proved to be ineffective
measures like price support.
against addressing agri distress. Under the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi
(PM-KISAN) scheme, the government will transfer `6,000 per year to small &
marginal farmers in three equal installments. The government has already
allocated `20,000cr to the scheme for FY2019, while the budgeted outlay for the
scheme is `75,000cr for FY2020.
This is over and above other subsidies like fertilizer and food wherein budget
outlays have also increased for FY2020. The PM-KISAN scheme along with
increased outlay in other schemes should address the issue of agri distress to some
extent in FY2020 and we believe that the outlay for the scheme would increase
and may subsume other schemes going forward.
Buoyancy in tax collections is heartening
The government was able to achieve fiscal deficit target of 3.4% in FY2019 without
resorting to any major off balance sheet spending like that in FY2018.
Tax revenue growth at
1.64x GDP
Gross tax revenues grew by 17.2% against nominal GDP growth of 10.5%, which
growth in FY19
translates to tax buoyancy of 1.64x and is pegged at 1.23x for FY2020. We
believe that with most GST related issues and rate cuts behind, government would
be able to meet fiscal targets for FY2020 even if GDP growth is slower than
budgeted 11% or there is some shortfall in disinvestments targets.
Farm package along with tax changes
Given that inflation is expected to remain well below RBI’s mid range of 4% in
to stimulate growth
FY2020, there is a real likelihood of nominal GDP growth coming in below
expected growth rate of 11%. The farm package along with marginal changes in
personal tax would provide a much needed fiscal stimulus in the backdrop of
slowing nominal GDP growth.
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report (01 February 2019)
1
Interim Budget 2019 - 20 Review
Key Budget Highlights
FY19 Fiscal deficit within market expectations
The FM has revised FY2019 fiscal deficit target to 3.4% and set a target of 3.4%
for FY2020, which is higher than the earlier target of 3.3% for FY2019 and 3.1%
for FY2020. Slippage for FY2019 has come in below market expectations of 3.5%,
though FY2020 budget estimates are above market expectations of 3.3%. Slippage
in FY2020 is largely on account of PM-KISAN.
Along expected lines, there is a shortfall of `100,000cr in GST collection for the
centre, which was partially on account of rate cuts and partially due government
going slow on compliance measures. Shortfall in GST collections was partially
offset by other indirect taxes `26,833cr, corporate tax `50,000cr and lesser
devolution to states `23,067cr. As a result, net tax revenue to centre was ahead of
budget estimates by `3,757cr. Shortfall in dividends from PSUs and Telecom
revenues would be made up from additional interim dividend from the RBI.
The government has not resorted to off balance sheet funding or expenditure
compression as was feared. Only some portion of petroleum subsidy has been
rolled over to FY2020, which does not make any material difference to FY20
budget numbers. Overall tax revenues were good, considering the slip in nominal
GDP growth to 10.5% against expectations of 11.3%.
FY20 Fiscal deficit and borrowing numbers ahead of market
estimates
While fiscal deficit & gross borrowing numbers are well within market expectations,
bond markets are a bit worried about issuances in FY2020. Fiscal deficit at 3.4%
of GDP is well ahead of glide path of 3.1% for FY2020. While net borrowing
figures are manageable at `4.73 lakh cr, gross market borrowings are significant
at `7.6l lakh cr in FY2020 against `5.71 lakh cr in FY2019. This is likely to spook
the bond markets.
The government has clearly stated that focus would be to address rural distress in
FY2020. In order to address the rural distress, the government announced the PM-
KISAN scheme, which is over and above food & fertilizer subsidies. Against budget
allocation of `46,700cr, the government is going to allocate `67,800cr to the
department of agriculture this year, which is further going to increase to
`129,585cr in FY2020. The sharp jump in allocation is largely on account of the
PM-KISAN scheme.
However, the government needs to be credited for not resorting to below the line
accounting just to show a better fiscal deficit number. We believe that the income
transfer scheme was necessary to boost rural income and is a much better way to
address rural distress then large MSP hikes and farm loan waivers.
2
Interim Budget 2019 - 20 Review
Budget Math - Realistic and achievable
The tax-to-GDP ratio for FY2019 came in at 12.1% against budgeted estimates of
12% despite a shortfall in tax collection by `23,067cr. This was largely on account
of GDP growth being lower at 10.5% against expected growth of 11.3%. Indirect
taxes came in lower at 5.6% of GDP against budget estimates of 5.9% largely on
account of shortfall in GST collections. This was however, made up by buoyancy in
direct tax collections, which came in at 6.4% of GDP against BE of 6.1%.
We believe that government estimates for FY2020 are very reasonable and
achievable with gross tax collections expected to grow at 13.5% yoy against a
growth of 17.2% in FY2019. Net tax collections are expected to grow at 14.9% in
FY2020. Indirect tax collections are expected to grow by 11.8% yoy marginally
ahead of GDP estimates at 11.8% yoy with GST collections expected to grow by
18.2% yoy. We believe that most issues with GST have been ironed out and targets
set for FY2020 are very much achievable. Direct tax growth at 14.9% yoy is also
very much achievable, as the tax net is winding due to various initiatives taken by
the government. Non-tax revenue growth of 11.1% is in-line with projected GDP
growth of 11%.
While the government has managed to achieve their disinvestment targets for the
past few years, the manner in which they are being achieved may not be
convincing to some. Disinvestment targets for FY2020 have been pegged at
`90,000cr, which we believe the government will achieve one way or the other.
Tax growth numbers for FY2019 was heartening at 1.64x of nominal GDP growth,
which signifies increasing tax compliance. Tax growth for FY2020 is estimated at
1.23x nominal GDP growth. Even if there is some slippage on growth or shortfall
in disinvestment targets, we believe that the government has room to achieve
revenue receipt growth of 14.3%.
Exhibit 1: Key Fiscal indicators ( % of GDP)
% of GDP
FY18A
FY19BE
FY19RE FY120BE
Gross Tax Revenue
11.4%
12.0%
12.1%
12.3%
Devolution to States
4.0%
4.2%
4.1%
4.1%
Net Tax to Centre
7.4%
7.8%
8.0%
8.2%
Direct Taxes
5.9%
6.1%
6.4%
6.7%
Indirect taxes
5.4%
5.9%
5.6%
5.7%
Capital Receipt (ex borrowing)
0.7%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
Revenue Expenditure
11.1%
11.3%
11.5%
11.8%
Subsidies
1.3%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
Total Capital Expenditure
1.6%
1.6%
1.7%
1.6%
Total Expenditure
12.7%
12.9%
13.2%
13.4%
Revenue Deficit
2.6%
2.2%
2.2%
2.3%
Fiscal Deficit
3.5%
3.3%
3.4%
3.4%
Primary Deficit
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
Source: Budget documents, Angel Research
3
Interim Budget 2019 - 20 Review
Exhibit 2: Budget 2019-20 at a glance
Particular
Budget (` cr)
YOY (%)
FY18A
FY19BE
FY19RE
FY20BE
FY19RE
FY20BE
(A) Revenue Receipts (1+2)
14,35,233
17,25,738
17,29,882
19,77,693
20.5
14.3
Gross Tax Revenue (a+b)
19,19,009
22,71,242
22,48,175
25,52,131
17.2
13.5
Devolution to States/Trf to NCCD
6,73,006.0
7,88,093
7,61,454.0
8,44,605.0
13.1
10.9
%
35.1%
34.7%
33.9%
33.1%
1) Tax Revenue (Net to Centre)
12,42,488
14,80,649
14,84,406
17,05,046
19.5
14.9
a) Direct Taxes
10,01,974
11,50,000
12,00,000
13,80,000
19.8
15.0
Income Tax
430772
5,29,000
5,29,000.0
6,20,000.0
22.8
17.2
Corporate Tax
5,71,202.0
6,21,000
6,71,000.0
7,60,000.0
17.5
13.3
b) Indirect taxes
9,16,972
11,21,242
10,48,175
11,72,131
14.3
11.8
Custom Duties
1,29,030.0
1,12,500
1,30,038.0
1,45,388.0
0.8
11.8
Excise Duties
2,59,431.0
2,59,600
2,59,612.0
2,59,600.0
0.1
0.0
Service Tax
81,228.0
0
9,283.0
0.0
-88.6
-100.0
GST
4,42,562.0
7,43,900
6,43,900.0
7,61,200.0
45.5
18.2
Others
4,721.0
5,242
5,342.0
5,943.0
13.2
11.3
2) Non Tax Revenue
1,92,745
2,45,089
2,45,476
2,72,647
27.4
11.1
Interest receipt
13,574.0
15,162
12,047.0
12,911.0
-11.2
7.2
Dividend and profits receipts
91,361.0
1,07,312
1,19,264.0
1,36,072.0
30.5
14.1
Others
87,810.0
1,22,615
1,14,165.0
1,23,664.0
30.0
8.3
(B) Capital Receipts (3+4+5)
7,02,649
6,73,409
6,86,352
7,55,210
-2.3
10.0
3) Recovery of Loans
15,633.0
12,199
13,155.0
12,508.0
-15.9
-4.9
4) Disinvestment
1,00,045.0
80,000
80,000.0
90,000.0
-20.0
12.5
5) Borrowings and Other Liabilities
5,86,971.0
5,81,210
5,93,197.0
6,52,702.0
1.1
10.0
Total Receipt(A+B)
21,37,882
23,99,147
24,16,234
27,32,903
13.0
13.1
(C)Revenue expenditure
18,78,835.0
21,41,772
21,40,611.0
24,47,908.0
13.9
14.4
6) Of which interest payments
5,28,951
5,75,795
5,87,570.0
6,65,061.0
11.1
13.2
(D) Capital expenditure
2,63,140.0
3,00,441
3,16,624.0
3,36,292.0
20.3
6.2
Total Expenditure (C+D)
21,41,975
24,42,213
24,57,235
27,84,200
14.7
13.3
(E) Fiscal Deficit (C+D-A-3-4)
5,91,064
6,24,276
6,34,198
7,03,999
7
11
(F) Revenue Deficit (C-A)
4,43,602
4,16,034
4,10,729
4,70,215
-7
14
(G) Primary Deficit (E -6)
5,91,064
48,481
46,628
38,938
-92
-16
GDP
1,68,87,543
1,89,17,464
1,86,52,882
2,07,05,853
Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP)
3.50%
3.3%
3.40%
3.40%
Source: Budget documents, Angel Research
4
Interim Budget 2019 - 20 Review
Subsidy Burden to remain stable
Since BJP came into power in 2014, the subsidies have been falling as a % of GDP
due to couple of favorable factors like falling prices of oil and fertilizers raw
material, coupled with reforms in agriculture sector like DBT and regularization of
Urea pricing. Subsidies as a % of GDP has come down from 2.2% of GDP in
FY2014 to 1.6% of GDP and may only go down gradually from current levels, as
the government starts placing a greater emphasis on income support rather than
price support.
However, the change is expected to be gradual and will happen over a period of
time. We expect that subsidies along with income support will form the backbone
of the government’s effort to address the issue of agri distress. In FY2020,
subsidies are budgeted to grow by 11.7%, in-line with GDP growth.
Exhibit 3: Subsidy
Subsidy Break-down
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19RE
FY20BE
Major Subsidies
2,49,016
2,41,857
2,32,705
1,91,183
2,66,206
2,96,684
Fertilizer Subsidy
71,076
72,438
70,000
66,441
70075.2
74986
yoy growth (%)
6%
1.9%
-3.4%
-5.1%
0.0%
7.0%
Food Subsidy
1,17,671
1,39,419
1,35,173
100281
171298
184220
yoy growth (%)
28%
18.5%
1.0%
-25.8%
1.2%
7.5%
Petroleum Subsidy
60,269
30,000
27,532
24,461
24833.18
37478
yoy growth (%)
-29%
-50.2%
-8%
-11.2%
-0.4%
50.9%
Interest Subsidy
7,632
13,808
18865
22,146
22676.64
25146.05
yoy growth (%)
-6%
80.9%
4%
17.4%
-1.7%
10.9%
Other Subsidy
1,610
2,136
3,128
11,099
10327.59
12404.56
yoy growth (%)
-9%
32.7%
46%
254.8%
27.5%
20.1%
Total Subsidy
2,58,258
2,57,801
2,54,698
2,24,429
2,99,211
3,34,235
yoy growth (%)
1%
-0.2%
-1%
-11.9%
1.3%
11.7%
% to GDP
2.0%
1.8%
1.7%
1.3%
1.6%
1.6%
Source: Budget documents, Angel Research
Farm package along with marginal tax relief to boost growth
The government has not made any major changes in the personal tax rate
except that the standard deduction of
`40,000 has been increased to
`50,000, while tax rates for people with taxable income of up to ~`5lakh
have been effectively reduced to zero.
While the changes in personal tax are marginal, we believe that combined
with the farm package announced by the government, it was a much needed
fiscal boost for the economy, given falling growth rates and inflation.
5
Interim Budget 2019 - 20 Review
Sectoral Impact
6
Interim Budget 2019 - 20 Review
Agriculture
Positive
Announcement
Impact
Government is launching a programme namely
Positive for all Agri input related companies, as
“Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-KISAN)”.
farmer income will go up marginally.
Under this programme, vulnerable landholding farmer
families, having cultivable land up to 2 hectares, will be
provided direct income support of
`6,000/year. This
income support will be transferred directly into the bank
accounts of beneficiary farmers, in three equal
instalments of `2,000 each. The programme would be
made effective from December 01, 2018 and the first
instalment for the period up to March 31, 2019 would be
paid during this year itself. This programme will entail an
annual expenditure of `75,000cr.
Government has now decided that all farmers affected by
Will ease the burden on farmers and hence on Agri
severe natural calamities, where assistance is provided
related product manufactures.
from National Disaster Relief Fund (NDRF), will be
provided the benefit of interest subvention of 2% and
prompt repayment incentive of 3% for the entire period of
re-schedulement of their loans.
Automobile
Positive
Announcement
Impact
MGNREGA allocation has increased from `55,000cr in
This is likely to create a positive sentiment among first
FY2019 to `60,000cr in FY2020. Further, under PM-
time buyers for entry-level small cars, two wheelers and
KISAN scheme, government would provide direct income
tractors.
support of ₹6,000 per year to farmers.
7
Interim Budget 2019 - 20 Review
Banks & Financial Services (BFSI)
Neutral
Announcement
Impact
The fiscal deficit for FY2019 has been increased by
This will increase government's borrowing plan and
10bps to 3.4% and for FY2020E fiscal deficit is set at
would reduce possibility of near term rate cut.
3.4%, which is 30bps higher than that estimated in
FY2018.
Positive for Public Sector Banks.
The commitment of the Finance Minister is to increase
allocation for recapitalization to beyond `2.60 lakh cr if
required.
Higher spending toward rural is positive for NBFCs such
The Government's higher spending towards rural under
as M&M Financial Services, Shriram Transport and
PM Kisan scheme will aid farmers to get `6,000 per year
Direct transfer under PM Kisan Scheme is overall positive
directly into bank accounts.
for Public Sector Banks.
Capital Good
Positive
Announcement
Impact
Higher capital outlay to Defence by 10% to `103,380cr.
Positive for BEL, L&T, Bharat Forge.
Positive for L&T, BEL & BEML.
Higher allocation towards mass rapid transit system and
metro projects by 23% to `19,152cr.
Positive for Titagarh Wagons, Texmaco & Alstom India.
Allocation to Railways has been increased by 7% to
`58,932cr as against the allocation last year of
`55,010cr.
8
Interim Budget 2019 - 20 Review
Consumption Discretionary
Positive
Announcement
Impact
6cr connections have already been given and the
This will be positive for the kitchen appliances companies
remaining 2cr connections to get free gas connections
like
TTK Prestige, Hawkins Cooker, Butterfly
by next year.
Gandhimathi Appliances.
By March, 2019, all willing families will get electricity
Would be positive for all B2B focused companies in the
connection under 'Saubhagya Yojna'.
electrical equipment space like Havells, V-Guard
Industries, Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals and
Bajaj Appliances.
Positive for all the companies in the consumption space.
Various direct benefit transfer and tax rebates would
help in boosting consumption in the economy.
FMCG
Positive
Announcement
Impact
MGNREGA allocation has increased from `55,000cr in
This will be positive for the FMCG sector, as it will
FY2019 to `60,000cr in FY2020. Further, under PM-
increase the disposable income in the hands of rural
KISAN scheme, government would provide direct income
households. Positive for FMCG companies like HUL,
support of ₹6,000 per year to farmers.
Dabur, Marico, etc.
Flat `50,000 as a standard deduction to the salaried
It will leave more money in the hands of consumers,
class of taxpayers and pensioners.
which would boost the demand for FMCG companies.
9
Interim Budget 2019 - 20 Review
Infrastructure/Cement
Positive
Announcement
Impact
Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY) is being
Positive for Infrastructure (Road) companies and cement
allocated `19,000cr in BE 2019-20 as against `15,500cr
companies such as Ultractech, ACC, Shree Cement, Star
in RE 2018-19.
cement, etc.
Allocation for the North Eastern areas is being proposed
Infrastructure activity has improved in North East region
to be increased by 21% to `58,166cr in 2019-20 BE over
and announcement of increase in allocation by 21% to
2018-19 BE.
`58,166cr will lead to additional demand for infra
activity in the region. Sectors like Road Infrastructure and
Cement companies will benefit out of it such as Star
Cement and Dalmia Bharat.
Pharma
Neutral
Announcement
Impact
Government launched Ayushman Bharat, to provide
Positive for consumers and volumes to rise for
medical treatment to nearly 50cr people. Already close to
pharmaceutical companies; though in long run would
10 lakh, patients have benefited from medical treatment,
put pressure on prices of the medicines, for
which would have cost them
`3,000cr through free
pharmaceutical companies, especially MNCs. Currently,
treatment made available under the scheme. Lakhs of
the situation is not clear as the price-controlled
poor and middle class people are also benefiting from
medicines are allowed inflation adjusted price hikes.
reduction in the prices of essential medicines, cardiac
Therefore, as of now neutral, though in long run could
stents and knee implants, and availability of medicines at
impact the profitability of Indian companies, given the
affordable prices through Pradhan Mantri Jan Aushadhi
scope of the programme.
Kendras.
Power
Positive
Announcement
Impact
Government will meet its target of universal household
Positive for the sector.
electrification by the end of March 2019.
10
Interim Budget 2019 - 20 Review
Real Estate
Positive
Announcement
Impact
Exempt levy of Income Tax on notional rent on a second
Positive, as investment in second home will increase.
self-occupied house.
Stocks like Sobha, Kolte Patil Developers, Godrej
Properties will benefit out of it.
Making more homes available under affordable housing,
This will encourage more launches under Affordable
the benefits under Section 80-IBA of the Income Tax Act is
Housing project, which will lead to increase in demand
being extended for one more year, i.e. to the housing
of Steel, Cement and other building materials.
projects approved till March 31, 2020.
TDS threshold for deduction of tax on rent is proposed to
Will increase the savings in the hands of home owner.
be increased from `1,80,000 to ` 2,40,000 for providing
relief to small taxpayers.
Will provide short term relief for Real Estate developers
Exemption from levy of tax on notional rent, on unsold
with OC received unsold stocks. Companies like Sunteck
inventories, from 1 year to 2 years.
Reality, Oberoi Reality, Prestige, Ashiana Housing,
Godrej Properties.
11
Interim Budget 2019 - 20 Review
Budget-Picks
12
Interim Budget 2019 - 20 Review
Budget Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Rationale
Company
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Gaining market share in AC segment and
Blue Star
5,803
602
867
43.9
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to
augur well for Blue Star
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
Safari Industries
1,732
781
1,000
28.9
distribution network is leading to strong
growth in business. Likely to post robust
growth for next 3-4 years.
Strong brands and distribution network would
Siyaram Silk Mills
1,594
340
606
78.2
boost growth going ahead. Stock currently
trades at an inexpensive valuation.
New facelift and the Gujarat plant are
Maruti Suzuki
2,10,144
6,957
10,820
55.5
expected to improve the company’s sales
volume and margins, respectively.
We expect strong PAT growth on the back of
healthy growth in automobile segment (new
launches and facelifts in some of the models)
M&M
85,544
688
1,050
52.6
and strong growth in tractors segment
coupled with its strong brand recall and
improvement in rural sentiment.
We expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR of
~16% to
~`3,115cr over FY2018-20E
mainly due to new product launches, higher
Bata India
14,707
1,144
1,243
8.6
number of stores additions and focus on
women’s high growth segment coupled with
margin improvement.
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by
Shriram Transport Finance
rising bond yields on the back of stronger
23,685
1,044
1,764
69.0
pricing power and an enhancing ROE by
750bps over FY2018-20E, supported by
decline in credit cost.
TTK Prestige has emerged as one of the
leading brands in kitchen appliances in India
after its successful transformation from a
TTK Prestige
8,978
7,705
8,200
6.4
single product company to offering an entire
gamut of home and kitchen appliances. We
are expecting a CAGR of 18% in revenue and
25% in PAT over FY2018-20.
Considering the strong CV demand due to
change in BS-VI emission norms (will trigger
pre-buying activities), pick up in construction
Ashok Leyland
24,570
84
156
86.4
activities and no significant impact on
industry due to recent axle load norms, we
recommend BUY on Ashok Leyland
at current valuations.
13
Interim Budget 2019 - 20 Review
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Market. Angel or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public offering of securities of
the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months.
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contrary view, if any
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Ratings (Based on expected returns
Buy (> 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
over 12 months investment period):
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Sell (< -15)
14
Angel Broking® ( J\RQ
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Research Team
Fundamental:
Vaibhav Agrawal
Head of Research & ARQ
[email protected]
Sarabjit Kour Nagra
VP - Research (Pharmaceutical, IT)
[email protected]
Amarjeet S Maurya
Analyst (Mid-Caps)
[email protected]
Jaikishan Parmar
Analyst (BFSI)
[email protected]
Jyoti Roy
Analyst (Strategy)
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Kripashankar Maurya
Analyst (Real estate, Mid-Caps)
[email protected]
Nidhi Agrawal
Analyst (Strategy, Consumption, Mid-Caps)
[email protected]
Technical and Derivatives:
Sameet Chavan
Chief Technical & Derivative Analyst
[email protected]
RuchitJain
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Rajesh Dashrath Bhosle
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Sneha Seth
Derivatives Analyst
[email protected]
Disclaimer: 'Investments in securities market are subject to market risk, read all the related documents carefully before investing.'
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