2QFY2017 Result Update | Pharmaceutical
November 16, 2016
Ipca Laboratories
ACCUMULATE
CMP
`540
Performance Highlights
Target Price
`613
Y/E March (` cr)
2QFY2017 1QFY2017
% chg (QoQ) 2QFY2016
% chg (YoY)
Investment Period
12 Months
Net sales
853
822
3.8
739
15.5
Other income
33
17
90.7
16
108.4
Stock Info
Operating profit
109
108
0.9
79
38.7
Sector
Pharmaceutical
Tax
37
29
29.0
8
355.5
Market Cap (` cr)
6,820
Adj. net profit/(loss)
55
48
15.5
12
345.3
Net Debt (` cr)
337
Source: Company, Angel Research
Beta
0.7
Ipca Laboratories posted numbers lower than expected on the net profit and
52 Week High / Low
807/402
OPM front. On sales front, the company posted sales of `853cr (vs. `750cr
Avg. Daily Volume
55,139
expected vs. `739cr in 2QFY2016), posting a yoy growth of 15.5%. On the
Face Value (`)
2
operating front, the EBITDA margin came in at 12.8% vs. 14.9% expected vs.
BSE Sensex
26,305
10.6% in 2QFY2016. Consequently, the Adj. PAT came in at `54.9cr vs. `53.3cr
Nifty
8,108
expected vs. `12.3cr in 2QFY2016. Apart from better than expected OPM, the
Reuters Code
IPCA.BO
company also posted higher than expected other income (`33cr in 2QFY2017
Bloomberg Code
[email protected]
vs. `16cr in 2QFY2016). We maintain our Accumulate rating.
Results lower than expected on sales and operating fronts: On sales front, the
Shareholding Pattern (%)
company posted sales of `853cr (vs. `750cr expected vs. `739cr in 2QFY2016),
Promoters
46.0
posting a yoy growth of 15.5%. The formulation sales (`668cr) posted a yoy
MF / Banks / Indian Fls
25.6
growth of 20.0%, while API (`185cr) posted a yoy growth of 2.0%. On the
FII / NRIs / OCBs
16.0
operating front, the EBITDA margin came in at 12.8% vs. 14.9% expected vs.
Indian Public / Others
12.4
10.6% in 2QFY2016. Consequently, the Adj. PAT came in at `54.9cr vs. `53.3cr
expected vs. `12.3cr in 2QFY2016. Apart from better than expected OPM, the
company also posted higher than expected other income (`33cr in 2QFY2017
Abs. (%)
3m 1yr
3yr
vs. `16cr in 2QFY2016).
Sensex
(6.6)
2.7
28.9
Outlook and Valuation: We expect net sales to post a CAGR of 15.6% to
Ipca
1.6
(24.8)
(20.5)
`3,799cr and EPS to register a CAGR of 36.5% to `19.7 over FY2016-18E. The
company’s financials will be impacted by the USFDA import alert on the Ratlam,
3-Year Daily Price Chart
Indore and Silvassa facilities. While the problems are likely to persist for a while,
1,000
we expect the company’s performance to witness a gradual pick-up going
900
forward. Given the inexpensive valuations, we maintain our Accumulate rating.
800
700
Key financials (Consolidated)
600
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
500
Net sales
3,117
2,844
3,303
3,799
400
300
% chg
(2.6)
(8.7)
16.1
15.0
200
Adj. Net profit
254
133
219
248
% chg
(48.6)
(47.6)
64.2
13.5
EPS
20.1
10.6
17.3
19.7
Source: Company, Angel Research
EBITDA margin (%)
16.2
10.6
15.3
15.3
P/E (x)
26.8
51.2
31.2
27.5
RoE (%)
12.2
5.9
9.1
9.4
RoCE (%)
10.9
4.1
8.4
8.8
P/BV (x)
3.1
3.0
2.7
2.5
Sarabjit Kour Nangra
EV/Sales (x)
2.4
2.5
2.1
1.9
+91 22 39357800 Ext: 6806
EV/EBITDA (x)
14.5
23.5
14.1
12.4
[email protected]
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of November 15, 2016
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
1
Ipca Laboratories | 2QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 2QFY2017 - Standalone performance
Y/E March (` cr)
2QFY2017 1QFY2017
% chg (QoQ) 2QFY2016
% chg (YoY) 1HFY2017 1HFY2016
% chg (yoy)
Net sales
853
822
3.8
739
15.5
1674
1485
12.8
Other income
33
17
90.7
16
108.4
51
29
74.2
Total income
886
839
5.6
754
17.4
1725
1514
13.9
Gross profit
511
508
0.5
458
11.6
1042
907
14.8
Gross margins (%)
59.9
61.9
62.0
62.2
61.1
Operating profit
109
108
0.9
79
38.7
217
146
48.2
Operating margin (%)
12.8
13.1
10.6
12.9
9.8
Interest
7
7
3.5
7
(3.4)
13
13
1.9
Depreciation
43
42
1.8
44
(1.7)
85
77
10.7
PBT
92
77
20.6
44
-
169
86
97.8
Provision for taxation
37
29
29.0
8
66
18
270.9
Less: Exceptional Items (gains)/ loss
0
0
(24)
0
34
Reported Net profit
55
48
15.5
12
345.3
103
33
208.2
Adj. Net profit/(loss)
55
48
15.5
12
345.3
103
60
70.1
EPS (`)
4.3
3.7
1.0
8.0
4.7
Source: Company, Angel Research, FY numbers are consolidated
Exhibit 2: 2QFY2017 - Actual vs Angel estimates
(` cr)
Actual
Estimates
Variation (%)
Net sales
853
750
13.7
Other income
33
13
155.6
Operating profit
109
106
2.7
Interest
7
7
(3.4)
Tax
37
15
149.3
Adjusted Net profit/(loss)
55
53
3.0
Source: Company, Angel Research
Revenue above our estimate; grew by 15.5% yoy: The formulation sales (`668cr)
posted a yoy growth of 20.0%, while API (`185cr) posted a yoy growth of 2.0%.
The formulation sales growth was driven by Domestic Formulation (`404.4cr),
posting a yoy growth of 23.0%.
Domestic formulation sales (`404.4cr) posted a yoy growth of 23.2%, while exports
formulation sales (`264cr) posted a yoy growth of 16%. Domestic API sales (`38cr)
posted a growth of 15% yoy and export API sales were flat at `146cr.
In Domestic market, its malaria portfolio saw a robust 54% growth and non-
malaria portfolio grew by 18% in 2QFY2016. It expects domestic formulation to
see 12-14% growth in 2HFY2017 led by the immediate price hike in its non-NLEM
portfolio.
Overall, for 2QFY2017, exports contributed 48.1% to the top-line while the
domestic business contributed the rest. The overall contribution of formulations was
at 78.4% of total sales during the quarter. This is against 75.6% in 2QFY2016.
November 16, 2016
2
Ipca Laboratories | 2QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 3: Domestic sales trend
440
404
400
345
360
331
308
320
280
250
240
200
160
120
80
33
35
38
28
24
40
0
2QFY2016
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
2QFY2017
Formulation
API
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 4: Exports sales trend
320
275
280
264
249
227
240
221
200
166
147
146
160
117
120
91
80
40
0
2QFY2016
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
2QFY2017
Formulation
API
Source: Company, Angel Research
OPM expands yoy; but lower than expected: On the operating front, the EBITDA
margin came in at 12.8% vs. 14.9% expected vs. 10.6% in 2QFY2016. Apart from
the gross margin expansion (which came in at 59.9% in 2QFY2017 vs. 62.0% in
2QFY2016), lower expenses during the quarter aided the OPM expansion. Other
expenses posted a yoy growth of 6.6%. The Management expects the EBDITA
margin to be around 14.0-15.0%.
November 16, 2016
3
Ipca Laboratories | 2QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 5: OPM trend
15.0
13.1
12.8
12.0
10.6
11.4
9.0
8.4
6.0
3.0
0.0
2QFY2016
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
2QFY2017
Source: Company, Angel Research
Reported net profit marginally higher than estimates: Consequently, the Adj. PAT
came in at `54.9cr vs. `53.3cr expected vs. `12.3cr in 2QFY2016. Apart from
better than expected OPM, the company also posted higher than expected other
income (`33cr in 2QFY2017 vs. `16cr in 2QFY2016).
Exhibit 6: Adj. Net profit trend
60
55
48
38
40
24
20
12
0
2QFY2016
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
2QFY2017
Source: Company, Angel Research
Concall Highlights
Top-line growth for FY2017 estimated by Management is ~14.0-15.0% yoy,
with EBDITA margin of 14-15%.
Ipca expects to invite USFDA for re-inspection for its problematic formulation
plants at Piparia (Silvassa) and Pithampur (M.P.) followed by Ratlam API plant
(M.P.) in early FY2018. However, expects no immediate drug approval from
USFDA post plant clearance.
It filed for three ANDAs in 1HFY2017 and expects 3-4 ANDAs filing in
2HFY2016.
November 16, 2016
4
Ipca Laboratories | 2QFY2017 Result Update
Investment arguments
Domestic formulations business - the cash cow: Ipca has been successful in
changing its business focus to the high-margin chronic and lifestyle segments
from the low-margin anti-malarial segment. The chronic and lifestyle
segments comprising CVS, anti-diabetics, pain-management, CNS and
dermatology products, constitute more than 50% of the company’s domestic
formulation sales. The Management has ramped up its field force significantly
with addition of divisions in the domestic formulations segment, taking the
current total strength to nearly 4,000MRs. With an expected pick-up in sales in
FY2017, we expect the domestic formulation business to grow at a CAGR of
16.2% over FY2016-18E.
Exports currently under pressure; should pickup only by FY2018: On the
formulations front, Ipca has been increasing its penetration in regulated
markets, viz Europe and the US, by expanding the list of generic drugs backed
by its own API. In the emerging and semi-regulated markets, the company
plans to focus on building brands in the CVS, CNS, pain-management and
anti-malarial segments along with tapping new geographies. On the API front,
where the company is among the low-cost producers, it is aggressively
pursuing supply tie-ups with pharmaceutical MNCs.
After the USFDA inspection at the company’s APl manufacturing facility at
Ratlam (Madhya Pradesh), the company has received certain inspection
observations in Form 483, consequent to which the company had voluntarily
decided to temporarily suspend API shipments from this manufacturing facility
to the US markets until the issue getting resolved. However, the Form 483 was
converted into an import alert, except for 4 APIs which constituted around 45%
of US sales in FY2014.
The company’s Silvassa and Indore facilities (formulation facilities) are also
under import alert. These developments impacted FY2015 sales, while
FY2018 should see some revival. We expect exports to grow at a CAGR of
15.0% over FY2016-18E.
Outlook & Valuation:
We expect net sales to post a CAGR of 15.6% to `3,799cr and EPS to register a
CAGR of 36.5% to `19.7cr over FY2016-18E. The company’s financials will be
impacted by the USFDA import alert on the Ratlam, Indore and Silvassa facilities.
While the problems are likely to persist for a while, we expect a gradual pick-up in
performance only by FY2018. Still, given the valuations, we maintain our
Accumulate rating on the stock with a price target of `613.
November 16, 2016
5
Ipca Laboratories | 2QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 7: Key Assumptions
FY2017E
FY2018E
Sales growth (%)
16.1
15.0
Domestic growth (%)
17.4
15.0
Exports growth (%)
15.0
15.0
Operating margins (%)
15.3
15.3
R&D Exp ( % of sales)
4.0
4.0
Capex (` cr)
500
500
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 8: One-year forward PE band
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
-
10x
15x
20x
25x
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 9: Recommendation summary
Company
Reco.
CMP Tgt Price Upside
FY2018E
FY16-18E
FY2018E
(`)
(`)
(%) PE (x) EV/Sales (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
CAGR in EPS (%) RoCE (%) RoE (%)
Alembic Pharma Neutral
631
-
-
20.7
2.8
13.0
(10.8)
27.5
25.3
Aurobindo Pharma Buy
733
877
19.7
15.5
2.6
10.8
18.1
22.5
26.1
Cadila Healthcare Accumulate
358
400
11.7
18.7
2.9
13.0
13.4
22.7
25.7
Cipla
Neutral
553
-
-
20.3
2.6
14.0
20.4
13.5
15.2
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
3,309
-
-
22.9
2.9
13.3
1.7
16.2
15.9
Dishman Pharma Neutral
229
-
-
20.2
3.0
10.0
3.1
10.3
10.9
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
2,650
-
-
43.6
6.6
32.0
17.3
35.3
32.1
Indoco Remedies Sell
286
240
(18.5)
17.9
2.1
11.5
33.2
19.1
20.1
Ipca labs
Accumulate
540
613
13.4
27.5
1.9
12.4
36.5
8.8
9.4
Lupin
Buy
1,440
1,809
25.6
20.8
3.4
12.8
17.2
24.4
20.9
Sanofi India*
Neutral
4,253
-
-
24.7
2.6
17.7
22.2
24.9
28.8
Sun Pharma
Buy
683
944
38.3
20.8
4.1
13.2
22.0
33.1
18.9
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year ending
November 16, 2016
6
Ipca Laboratories | 2QFY2017 Result Update
Company background
Formed in 1949, Ipca Laboratories is a market leader in the anti-malarials and
rheumatoid arthritis segments. The company is a notable name in the domestic
formulations category with 150 formulations across major therapeutic segments
like cardiovascular (CVS), anti-diabetes, anti-malaria, pain-management (NSAID),
anti-bacterial, central nervous system (CNS) and gastro-intestinal. The company
has 7 production units, which are approved by most of the discerning regulatory
authorities including USFDA, UKMHRA, Australia-TGA, South Africa-MCC and
Brazil-ANVISA.
November 16, 2016
7
Ipca Laboratories | 2QFY2017 Result Update
Profit & loss statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
Gross sales
2,778
3,232
3,157
2,891
3,356
3,859
Less: Excise duty
25
33
40
47
53
61
Net Sales
2,754
3,199
3,117
2,844
3,303
3,799
Other operating income
59
82
40
41
41
41
Total operating income
2,813
3,282
3,157
2,885
3,344
3,839
% chg
19.3
16.7
(3.8)
(8.6)
15.9
14.8
Total expenditure
2,190
2,471
2,613
2,543
2,799
3,219
Net raw materials
1,097
1,137
1,155
1,058
1,173
1,349
Other mfg costs
245
250
277
253
294
338
Personnel
392
498
565
627
728
837
Other
456
587
616
606
604
695
EBITDA
564
728
504
301
504
580
% chg
19.5
29.1
(30.8)
(40.2)
67.4
15.0
(% of Net Sales)
20.5
22.8
16.2
10.6
15.3
15.3
Depreciation & amortisation
87
103
180
172
233
268
EBIT
477
625
324
129
271
312
% chg
17.8
31.1
(48.1)
(60.2)
110.3
15.0
(% of Net Sales)
17.3
19.5
10.4
4.5
8.2
8.2
Interest & other charges
33
27
28
32
32
32
Other Income
14
22
28
17
17
17
(% of PBT)
2.8
3.2
7.8
10.9
5.7
5.0
Recurring PBT
517
703
364
155
297
338
% chg
24.0
35.9
(48.2)
(57.5)
91.8
13.7
Extraordinary expense/(Inc.)
63.3
72.2
-
39.5
-
-
PBT (reported)
454
631
364
115
297
338
Tax
129.9
152.4
101.9
18.6
74.2
84.4
(% of PBT)
28.6
24.2
28.0
16.1
25.0
25.0
PAT (reported)
324
478
262
97
223
253
Add: Share of earnings of asso.
-
0
(5)
(3)
-
-
PAT after MI (reported)
324
478
254
94
219
248
ADJ. PAT
340
495
254
133
219
248
% chg
18.4
45.6
(48.6)
(47.6)
64.2
13.5
(% of Net Sales)
11.8
14.9
8.2
3.3
6.6
6.5
Basic EPS (`)
26.9
39.2
20.1
10.6
17.3
19.7
Fully Diluted EPS (`)
26.9
39.2
20.1
10.6
17.3
19.7
% chg
18.4
45.6
(48.6)
(47.6)
64.2
13.5
November 16, 2016
8
Ipca Laboratories | 2QFY2017 Result Update
Balance sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity share capital
25
25
25
25
25
25
Reserves & surplus
1,529
1,934
2,183
2,281
2,485
2,718
Shareholders Funds
1,554
1,960
2,208
2,306
2,510
2,743
Minority interest
-
-
-
-
-
-
Total loans
523
603
829
595
671
809
Other Long Term Liabilities
1
1
-
-
-
-
Long Term Provisions
12
15
22
23
23
23
Deferred tax liability
130
147
174
169
169
169
Total Liabilities
2,220
2,726
3,233
3,094
3,350
3,722
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross block
1,537
1,882
2,626
2,828
3,328
3,828
Less: Acc. depreciation
475
578
758
930
1,163
1,431
Net Block
1,063
1,303
1,868
1,898
2,165
2,397
Goodwill
42
50
34
34
34
34
Capital work-in-progress
129
165
165
165
165
165
Investments
9
9
16
96
96
96
Long Term Loans and Adv.
57
71
115
108
125
144
Current assets
1,397
1,602
1,614
1,522
1,767
2,032
Cash
58
76
125
162
189
223
Loans & advances
42
67
47
43
50
50
Other
1,297
1,459
1,442
1,317
1,529
1,759
Current liabilities
477
485
579
729
847
974
Net Current Assets
921
1,117
1,035
793
920
1,058
Other Non current Assets
-
9
-
-
Total Assets
2,220
2,726
3,233
3,094
3,350
3,722
November 16, 2016
9
Ipca Laboratories | 2QFY2017 Result Update
Cash flow statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017E FY2018E
Profit before tax
454
631
364
115
297
338
Depreciation
87
103
180
172
233
268
(Inc)/Dec in working capital
(116)
(193)
88
286
(411)
1,088
Direct taxes paid
(130)
(152)
(102)
(19)
(74)
(84)
Cash Flow from Operations
295
389
530
555
137
1,722
(Inc.)/Dec.in fixed assets
(257)
(380)
(745)
(202)
(500)
(500)
(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments
-
-
-
-
-
-
Cash Flow from Investing
(257)
(380)
(745)
(202)
(500)
(500)
Issue of Equity
0
-
-
-
-
-
Inc./(Dec.) in loans
(5)
83
232
(232)
76
138
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)
(59)
(74)
(15)
(15)
(15)
(15)
Others
72
1
47
(69)
419
(72)
Cash Flow from Financing
8
10
264
(316)
480
51
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash
46
18
49
37
27
38
Opening Cash balances
12
58
76
125
162
189
Closing Cash balances
58
76
125
162
189
223
November 16, 2016
10
Ipca Laboratories | 2QFY2017 Result Update
Key Ratios
Y/E March
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS)
19.7
13.8
26.8
51.2
31.2
27.5
P/CEPS
15.7
11.4
15.7
22.3
15.1
13.2
P/BV
4.4
3.5
3.1
3.0
2.7
2.5
Dividend yield (%)
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
EV/Sales
2.6
2.2
2.4
2.5
2.1
1.9
EV/EBITDA
12.7
9.9
14.5
23.5
14.1
12.4
EV / Total Assets
3.2
2.6
2.3
2.3
2.1
1.9
Per Share Data (`)
EPS (Basic)
26.9
39.2
20.1
10.6
17.3
19.7
EPS (fully diluted)
26.9
39.2
20.1
10.6
17.3
19.7
Cash EPS
33.8
47.4
34.4
24.2
35.8
40.9
DPS
4.0
5.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
Book Value
123.1
155.3
175.0
182.7
198.9
217.4
DuPont Analysis
EBIT margin
17.3
19.5
10.4
4.5
8.2
8.2
Tax retention ratio
71.4
75.8
72.0
83.9
75.0
75.0
Asset turnover (x)
1.4
1.4
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.2
ROIC (Post-tax)
17.2
20.2
8.2
3.6
6.8
7.1
Cost of Debt (Post Tax)
4.5
3.6
2.9
3.7
3.7
3.2
Leverage (x)
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
Operating ROE
21.8
24.9
9.8
3.6
7.3
7.9
Returns (%)
RoCE (Pre-tax)
23.2
25.3
10.9
4.1
8.4
8.8
Angel RoIC (Pre-tax)
25.0
27.7
12.0
4.5
9.4
9.9
RoE
24.2
28.2
12.2
5.9
9.1
9.4
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross Block)
2.0
1.9
1.4
1.1
1.1
1.1
Inventory / Sales (days)
92
88
103
111
96
97
Receivables (days)
49
48
46
46
52
52
Payables (days)
42
45
43
90
60
60
WC cycle (ex-cash) (days)
106
106
113
97
74
74
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
Net debt to EBITDA
0.8
0.7
1.4
1.4
1.0
1.0
Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.)
14.3
23.3
11.4
4.1
8.6
9.9
November 16, 2016
11
Ipca Laboratories | 2QFY2017 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
Angel Broking Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as “Angel”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited,
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registered entity with SEBI for Research Analyst in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 vide registration number
INH000000164. Angel or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing
/dealing in securities Market. Angel or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public
offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months.
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should
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trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
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contrary view, if any.
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Disclosure of Interest Statement
Ipca Laboratories
1. Financial interest of research analyst or Angel or his Associate or his relative
No
2. Ownership of 1% or more of the stock by research analyst or Angel or associates or relatives
No
3. Served as an officer, director or employee of the company covered under Research
No
4. Broking relationship with company covered under Research
No
Ratings (Based on expected returns
Buy (> 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
over 12 months investment period):
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Sell (< -15)
November 16, 2016
12