1QFY2017 Result Update | Pharmaceutical
August 16, 2016
IPCA Laboratories
BUY
CMP
`532
Performance Highlights
Target Price
`613
Y/E March (` cr)
1QFY2017 4QFY2016
% chg (QoQ) 1QFY2016
% chg (yoy)
Investment Period
12 Months
Net sales
822
612
34.2
751
9.4
Other income
17
18
(4.5)
11
56.2
Stock Info
Operating profit
108
51
110.9
75
43.6
Sector
Pharmaceutical
Tax
29
(16)
-
8
251.9
Market Cap (` cr)
6,714
Adj. net profit/(loss)
48
38
26.2
28
69.9
Net Debt (` cr)
337
Source: Company, Angel Research
Beta
0.6
For 1QFY2017, the company posted better than expected sales and OPM while
52 Week High / Low
888/402
the net profit missed our estimates. Sales came in at `822cr V/s `680cr expected
Avg. Daily Volume
55,668
and V/s `751cr in 1QFY2016, ie a yoy growth of 9.4%. Formulations (`620cr)
Face Value (`)
2
posted a yoy growth of 15%, while API (`202cr) posted a yoy de-growth of 3%.
BSE Sensex
28,152
On the operating front, the EBITDA margin came in at 13.1% V/s 9.6% expected,
Nifty
8,672
V/s 10.0% in 1QFY2016, and V/s 8.4% in 4QFY2016. Other income (`17.4cr)
Reuters Code
IPCA.BO
posted a yoy growth of 56.2%. Thus, the Adj. net profit came in at `48cr V/s
Bloomberg Code
[email protected]
`52cr expected and V/s `28cr in 1QFY2016, a yoy growth of 69.9%. We
maintain our Buy on the stock.
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Results better than expected on sales and operating fronts: Sales came in at
Promoters
45.9
`822cr V/s `680cr expected and V/s `751cr in 1QFY2016, ie a yoy growth of
MF / Banks / Indian Fls
18.1
9.4%. Formulations (`620cr) posted a yoy growth of 15%, while API (`202cr)
FII / NRIs / OCBs
23.5
posted a yoy de-growth of 3%. Domestic formulation sales (`345cr) posted a yoy
Indian Public / Others
12.6
growth of 9%, while exports formulation sales (`275cr) posted a yoy growth of
22%. Domestic API sales (`35cr) posted a de-growth of 37% yoy and exports API
sales (`166cr) posted a growth of 9% yoy. On the operating front, the EBITDA
Abs. (%)
3m 1yr
3yr
margin came in at 13.1% V/s 9.6% expected, V/s 10.0% in 1QFY2016, and V/s
Sensex
8.8
(0.0)
48.3
8.4% in 4QFY2016. Thus, the Adj. net profit came in at `48cr V/s `52cr
Ipca
11.8
(3.0)
162.9
expected and V/s `28cr in 1QFY2016, a yoy growth of 69.9%.
Outlook and Valuation: We expect net sales to post a 15.6% CAGR to `3,799cr,
3-Year Daily Price Chart
and EPS to register a 36.5% CAGR to `19.7 over FY2016-18E. The company’s
1,000
financials will be impacted by the USFDA import alert on the Ratlam, Indore and
800
Silvassa facilities. While the problems are likely to persist for a while, we expect the
company’s performance to witness a gradual pick-up going forward. Given the
600
inexpensive valuations, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock.
400
Key financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
200
Net sales
3,117
2,844
3,303
3,799
% chg
(2.6)
(8.7)
16.1
15.0
Adj. Net profit
254
133
219
248
Source: Company, Angel Research
% chg
(48.6)
(47.6)
64.2
13.5
EPS
20.1
10.6
17.3
19.7
EBITDA margin (%)
16.2
10.6
15.3
15.3
P/E (x)
21.2
40.4
24.6
21.7
RoE (%)
12.2
5.9
9.1
9.4
RoCE (%)
10.9
4.1
8.4
8.8
P/BV (x)
2.4
2.3
2.1
2.0
Sarabjit Kour Nangra
EV/Sales (x)
1.9
2.0
1.7
1.5
+91 22 39357800 Ext: 6806
EV/EBITDA (x)
11.9
19.0
11.4
10.1
[email protected]
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of August 12, 2016
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
1
Ipca Laboratories | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 1QFY2017 - Standalone performance
Y/E March (` cr)
1QFY2017 4QFY2016
% chg (QoQ)
1QFY2016
% chg (YoY) FY2016 FY2015
% chg (yoy)
Net sales
822
612
34.2
751
9.4
2844
3060
(7.0)
Other income
17
18
(4.5)
11
56.2
57
65
(11.6)
Total income
839
630
33.1
762
10.1
2902
3125
(7.1)
Gross profit
508
395
28.8
454
12.0
1787
1917
(6.8)
Gross margins (%)
61.9
64.4
60.4
62.8
62.6
Operating profit
108
51
110.9
75
43.6
262
495
(47.1)
Operating margin (%)
13.1
8.4
10.0
9.2
16.2
Interest
7
8
(19.3)
5
20.3
32
26
21.6
Depreciation
42
39
7.6
42
0.1
172
177
(2.7)
PBT
77
22
246.8
39
-
112
352
(68.2)
Provision for taxation
29
(16)
(285.8)
8
19
102
(81.8)
Less: Exceptional Items
0
0
12
0
0
(gains)/ loss
Reported Net profit
48
38
26.2
21
127.4
93
254
(63.3)
Adj. Net profit/(loss)
48
38
26.2
28
69.9
93
254
(63.3)
EPS (`)
3.7
2.9
2.2
7.3
19.8
Source: Company, Angel Research, FY numbers are consolidated
Exhibit 2: 1QFY2017 - Actual vs Angel estimates
(` cr)
Actual
Estimates
Variation (%)
Net sales
822
680
20.8
Other income
17
18
(4.6)
Operating profit
108
66
64.5
Interest
7
8
(19.4)
Tax
29
(16)
-
Adjusted Net profit/(loss)
48
52
(8.7)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Revenue below our estimate; grew at 9.4% yoy: Sales came in at `822cr V/s
`680cr expected and V/s `751cr in 1QFY2016, ie a yoy growth of
9.4%.
Formulations (`620cr) posted a yoy growth of 15%, while API (`202cr) posted a
yoy de-growth of 3%. Domestic formulation sales (`345cr) posted a yoy growth of
9%, while exports formulation sales (`275cr) posted a yoy growth of
22%.
Domestic API sales (`35cr) posted a de-growth of 37% yoy and export API sales
(`166cr) posted a growth of 9% yoy.
Domestic sales growth was impacted to the tune of ~4% by the FDC ban and a
price decline in the NELM portfolio. The Management expects the domestic
business to grow ~12% yoy in FY2017. Such recovery will be led by a ramp-up of
the anti-malaria portfolio. The export formulation segment reported a strong
growth of ~22% yoy, led by USA and the institutional business. Sales in the US
during the quarter were driven by HCQS and Propranolol. For the rest of FY2017,
HCQS will not contribute to sales due to slow ramp-up and channel filling but
would continue contributing to profit share.
Overall, for 1QFY2017, exports contributed 53.7% to the top-line while the
domestic business contributed the rest. The overall contribution of formulations was
at 75.4% of total sales during the quarter. This is against 72.2% in 1QFY2016.
August 16, 2016
2
Ipca Laboratories | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 3: Domestic sales trend
400
345
360
331
318
308
320
280
250
240
200
160
120
80
56
33
35
28
24
40
0
1QFY2016
2QFY2016
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
Formulation
API
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 4: Exports sales trend
320
275
280
249
225
227
240
221
200
166
152
147
160
117
120
91
80
40
0
1QFY2016
2QFY2016
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
Formulation
API
Source: Company, Angel Research
OPM expands yoy: On the operating front, the gross margin came in at 61.9% V/s
60.4% in 1QFY2016 on back of an improved sales mix, while the EBDITA margin
came in at 13.1% V/s 10.0% in 1QFY2016. The margins are likely to improve
once the US business picks up, which would hopefully be by FY2018. The
Management expects the EBDITA margin to be around 16.0-16.5%.
August 16, 2016
3
Ipca Laboratories | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 5: OPM trend
15.0
13.0
13.1
11.4
10.6
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.4
7.0
1QFY2016
2QFY2016
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
Source: Company, Angel Research
Reported net profit lower than estimates: Other income (`17.4cr), posted a yoy
growth of 56.2%. Thus, the Adj. net profit came in at `48cr V/s `52cr expected
and V/s `28cr in 1QFY2016, a yoy growth of 69.9%.
Exhibit 6: Adj. Net profit trend
60
48
50
38
40
28
30
24
20
12
10
0
1QFY2016
2QFY2016
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
Source: Company, Angel Research
Concall Highlights
Top-line growth for FY2017 estimated by Management at ~11.0-12.0% yoy.
R&D as % of sales stood at 3.7% in 1QFY2017.
Gross margin expected to be ~65.0% in FY2017.
Investment arguments
Domestic formulations business - the cash cow: Ipca has been successful in
changing its business focus to the high-margin chronic and lifestyle segments
from the low-margin anti-malarial segment. The chronic and lifestyle
segments, comprising CVS, anti-diabetics, pain-management, CNS and
dermatology products, constitute more than 50% of the company’s domestic
August 16, 2016
4
Ipca Laboratories | 1QFY2017 Result Update
formulation sales. The Management has ramped up its field force significantly
with addition of divisions in the domestic formulations segment, taking the
current total strength to nearly 4,000MRs. With an expected pick-up in sales in
FY2017, we expect the domestic formulation business to grow at a CAGR of
16.2% over FY2016-18E.
Exports currently under pressure; should pickup only by FY2018: On the
formulations front, Ipca has been increasing its penetration in regulated
markets, viz Europe and the US, by expanding the list of generic drugs backed
by its own API. In the emerging and semi-regulated markets, the company
plans to focus on building brands in the CVS, CNS, pain-management and
anti-malarial segments along with tapping new geographies. On the API front,
where the company is among the low-cost producers, it is aggressively
pursuing supply tie-ups with pharmaceutical MNCs.
After the USFDA inspection at the company’s APl manufacturing facility at
Ratlam (Madhya Pradesh), the company has received certain inspection
observations in Form 483, consequent to which the company had voluntarily
decided to temporarily suspend API shipments from this manufacturing facility
to the US markets until the issue getting resolved. However, the 483 was
converted into an import alert, except for 4 APIs which constituted around 45%
of US sales in FY2014.
The company’s Silvassa and Indore facilities (formulation facilities) are also
under import alert. These developments impacted FY2015 sales, while
FY2017/FY2018 should see some revival. We expect exports to grow at a
CAGR of 15.0% over FY2016-18E.
Outlook & Valuation:
We expect net sales to post a 15.6% CAGR to `3,799cr, and EPS to register a
36.5% CAGR to `19.7 over FY2016-18E. The company’s financials will be
impacted by the USFDA import alert on the Ratlam, Indore and Silvassa facilities.
While the problems are likely to persist for a while, we expect a gradual pick-up in
performance only by FY2018. Still, given the valuations, we maintain our Buy
rating on the stock with a price target of 613.
Exhibit 7: Key Assumptions
FY2017E
FY2018E
Sales growth (%)
16.1
15.0
Domestic growth (%)
17.4
15.0
Exports growth (%)
15.0
15.0
Operating margins (%)
15.3
15.3
R&D Exp ( % of sales)
4.0
4.0
Capex (` cr)
500
500
Source: Company, Angel Research
August 16, 2016
5
Ipca Laboratories | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 8: One-year forward PE band
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
-
10x
15x
20x
25x
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 9: Recommendation summary
Company
Reco.
CMP Tgt Price
Upside
FY2018E
FY16-18E
FY2018E
PE
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
CAGR in EPS
RoCE
RoE
(`)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(%)
(%)
(%)
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
647
-
-
21.3
2.8
13.3
(10.8)
27.5
25.3
Aurobindo Pharma Buy
747
877
17.4
15.8
2.6
11.0
18.1
22.5
26.1
Cadila Healthcare
Accumulate
369
400
8.4
18.5
2.8
12.6
15.8
24.3
26.6
Cipla
Neutral
517
-
-
19.0
2.4
13.1
20.4
13.5
15.2
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
3,005
-
-
19.0
2.8
11.2
6.9
18.1
17.1
Dishman Pharma
Neutral
167
-
-
16.0
1.8
8.0
(1.1)
9.6
10.2
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
3,102
-
-
52.2
6.7
35.8
15.9
35.8
31.8
Indoco Remedies
Sell
311
225
(27.7)
19.9
2.3
12.7
31.5
19.1
19.2
Ipca labs
Buy
532
613
15.2
27.0
1.9
12.2
36.5
8.8
9.4
Lupin
Accumulate
1,579
1,809
14.6
22.8
3.7
14.0
17.2
24.4
20.9
Sanofi India
Neutral
4,347
-
-
25.7
3.2
18.5
21.2
24.9
28.4
Sun Pharma
Buy
802
944
17.7
24.4
4.9
15.9
22.0
33.1
18.9
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year ending
August 16, 2016
6
Ipca Laboratories | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Company background
Formed in 1949, IPCA Labs is a market leader in the anti-malarials and
rheumatoid arthritis segments. The company is a notable name in the domestic
formulations category with 150 formulations across major therapeutic segments
like cardiovascular (CVS), anti-diabetes, anti-malaria, pain-management (NSAID),
anti-bacterial, central nervous system (CNS) and gastro-intestinal. The company
has 7 production units which are approved by most of the discerning regulatory
authorities including USFDA, UKMHRA, Australia-TGA, South Africa-MCC and
Brazil-ANVISA.
August 16, 2016
7
Ipca Laboratories | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Profit & loss statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
Gross sales
2,778
3,232
3,157
2,891
3,356
3,859
Less: Excise duty
25
33
40
47
53
61
Net Sales
2,754
3,199
3,117
2,844
3,303
3,799
Other operating income
59
82
40
41
41
41
Total operating income
2,813
3,282
3,157
2,885
3,344
3,839
% chg
19.3
16.7
(3.8)
(8.6)
15.9
14.8
Total expenditure
2,190
2,471
2,613
2,543
2,799
3,219
Net raw materials
1,097
1,137
1,155
1,058
1,173
1,349
Other mfg costs
245
250
277
253
294
338
Personnel
392
498
565
627
728
837
Other
456
587
616
606
604
695
EBITDA
564
728
504
301
504
580
% chg
19.5
29.1
(30.8)
(40.2)
67.4
15.0
(% of Net Sales)
20.5
22.8
16.2
10.6
15.3
15.3
Depreciation & amortisation
87
103
180
172
233
268
EBIT
477
625
324
129
271
312
% chg
17.8
31.1
(48.1)
(60.2)
110.3
15.0
(% of Net Sales)
17.3
19.5
10.4
4.5
8.2
8.2
Interest & other charges
33
27
28
32
32
32
Other Income
14
22
28
17
17
17
(% of PBT)
2.8
3.2
7.8
10.9
5.7
5.0
Recurring PBT
517
703
364
155
297
338
% chg
24.0
35.9
(48.2)
(57.5)
91.8
13.7
Extraordinary expense/(Inc.)
63.3
72.2
-
39.5
-
-
PBT (reported)
454
631
364
115
297
338
Tax
129.9
152.4
101.9
18.6
74.2
84.4
(% of PBT)
28.6
24.2
28.0
16.1
25.0
25.0
PAT (reported)
324
478
262
97
223
253
Add: Share of earnings of asso.
-
0
(5)
(3)
-
-
PAT after MI (reported)
324
478
254
94
219
248
ADJ. PAT
340
495
254
133
219
248
% chg
18.4
45.6
(48.6)
(47.6)
64.2
13.5
(% of Net Sales)
11.8
14.9
8.2
3.3
6.6
6.5
Basic EPS (`)
26.9
39.2
20.1
10.6
17.3
19.7
Fully Diluted EPS (`)
26.9
39.2
20.1
10.6
17.3
19.7
% chg
18.4
45.6
(48.6)
(47.6)
64.2
13.5
August 16, 2016
8
Ipca Laboratories | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Balance sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity share capital
25
25
25
25
25
25
Reserves & surplus
1,529
1,934
2,183
2,281
2,485
2,718
Shareholders Funds
1,554
1,960
2,208
2,306
2,510
2,743
Minority interest
-
-
-
-
-
-
Total loans
523
603
829
595
671
809
Other Long Term Liabilities
1
1
-
-
-
-
Long Term Provisions
12
15
22
23
23
23
Deferred tax liability
130
147
174
169
169
169
Total Liabilities
2,220
2,726
3,233
3,094
3,350
3,722
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross block
1,537
1,882
2,626
2,828
3,328
3,828
Less: Acc. depreciation
475
578
758
930
1,163
1,431
Net Block
1,063
1,303
1,868
1,898
2,165
2,397
Goodwill
42
50
34
34
34
34
Capital work-in-progress
129
165
165
165
165
165
Investments
9
9
16
96
96
96
Long Term Loans and Adv.
57
71
115
108
125
144
Current assets
1,397
1,602
1,614
1,522
1,767
2,032
Cash
58
76
125
162
189
223
Loans & advances
42
67
47
43
50
50
Other
1,297
1,459
1,442
1,317
1,529
1,759
Current liabilities
477
485
579
729
847
974
Net Current Assets
921
1,117
1,035
793
920
1,058
Other Non current Assets
-
9
-
-
Total Assets
2,220
2,726
3,233
3,094
3,350
3,722
August 16, 2016
9
Ipca Laboratories | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Cash flow statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017E FY2018E
Profit before tax
454
631
364
115
297
338
Depreciation
87
103
180
172
233
268
(Inc)/Dec in working capital
(116)
(193)
88
286
(411)
1,088
Direct taxes paid
(130)
(152)
(102)
(19)
(74)
(84)
Cash Flow from Operations
295
389
530
555
137
1,722
(Inc.)/Dec.in fixed assets
(257)
(380)
(745)
(202)
(500)
(500)
(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments
-
-
-
-
-
-
Cash Flow from Investing
(257)
(380)
(745)
(202)
(500)
(500)
Issue of Equity
0
-
-
-
-
-
Inc./(Dec.) in loans
(5)
83
232
(232)
76
138
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)
(59)
(74)
(15)
(15)
(15)
(15)
Others
72
1
47
(69)
419
(72)
Cash Flow from Financing
8
10
264
(316)
480
51
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash
46
18
49
37
27
38
Opening Cash balances
12
58
76
125
162
189
Closing Cash balances
58
76
125
162
189
223
August 16, 2016
10
Ipca Laboratories | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Key Ratios
Y/E March
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS)
19.7
13.6
26.4
50.4
30.7
27.1
P/CEPS
15.7
11.2
15.5
22.0
14.9
13.0
P/BV
4.3
3.4
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.4
Dividend yield (%)
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
EV/Sales
2.6
2.2
2.4
2.5
2.1
1.9
EV/EBITDA
12.7
9.9
14.5
23.5
14.1
12.4
EV / Total Assets
3.2
2.6
2.3
2.3
2.1
1.9
Per Share Data (`)
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
EPS (Basic)
EPS (fully diluted)
26.9
39.2
20.1
10.6
17.3
19.7
Cash EPS
26.9
39.2
20.1
10.6
17.3
19.7
DPS
33.8
47.4
34.4
24.2
35.8
40.9
Book Value
4.0
5.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
DuPont Analysis
123.1
155.3
175.0
182.7
198.9
217.4
EBIT margin
Tax retention ratio
17.3
19.5
10.4
4.5
8.2
8.2
Asset turnover (x)
71.4
75.8
72.0
83.9
75.0
75.0
ROIC (Post-tax)
1.4
1.4
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.2
Cost of Debt (Post Tax)
17.2
20.2
8.2
3.6
6.8
7.1
Leverage (x)
4.5
3.6
2.9
3.7
3.7
3.2
Operating ROE
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
Returns (%)
21.8
24.9
9.8
3.6
7.3
7.9
RoCE (Pre-tax)
Angel RoIC (Pre-tax)
23.2
25.3
10.9
4.1
8.4
8.8
RoE
25.0
27.7
12.0
4.5
9.4
9.9
Turnover ratios (x)
24.2
28.2
12.2
5.9
9.1
9.4
Asset Turnover (Gross Block)
Inventory / Sales (days)
2.0
1.9
1.4
1.1
1.1
1.1
Receivables (days)
92
88
103
111
96
97
Payables (days)
49
48
46
46
52
52
WC cycle (ex-cash) (days)
42
45
43
90
60
60
Solvency ratios (x)
106
106
113
97
74
74
Net debt to equity
Net debt to EBITDA
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.)
0.8
0.7
1.4
1.4
1.0
1.0
August 16, 2016
11
Ipca Laboratories | 1QFY2017 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
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/dealing in securities Market. Angel or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public
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Disclosure of Interest Statement
Ipca Laboratories
1. Financial interest of research analyst or Angel or his Associate or his relative
No
2. Ownership of 1% or more of the stock by research analyst or Angel or associates or relatives
No
3. Served as an officer, director or employee of the company covered under Research
No
4. Broking relationship with company covered under Research
No
Ratings (Based on expected returns
Buy (> 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
over 12 months investment period):
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Sell (< -15)
August 16, 2016
12