IPO Note | Aviation
October 23, 2015
Interglobe Aviation Limited
SUBSCRIBE
Issue Open: October 27, 2015
IPO Note
Issue Close: October 29, 2015
Interglobe Aviation Ltd operates Indigo, which is the largest passenger airline in
India with a market share of 37.4% (as of August 31, 2105). It is a low-cost
Issue Details
carrier (LCC) with an asset light business model which enables it to have lowest
Face Value: `10
cost and highest profitability amongst Indian airline companies.
Present Eq. Paid up Capital: `344cr
Cost competiveness vs its peers: Interglobe Aviation (Interglobe) has been the only
passenger aircraft operator in India to post consistent profits over the past seven
Offer Size: 4.3cr Shares
years. The magnitude of the aircraft orders placed by the company has enabled it
to negotiate favorable terms with Airbus, as well as with other suppliers and
Post Eq. Paid up Capital: `360cr
service providers. This has created a structural cost advantage for the company in
Issue size (amount)**: `3,100cr - `3,270cr
terms of operations and maintenance of aircrafts compared to its peers.
Price Band**: `700-765
Capitalizing on highly underpenetrated Indian air travel industry: The Indian air
travel industry is underpenetrated in comparison to other countries with
Post-issue implied mcap**: `25,332cr-27,566
penetration levels of 0.08 annual domestic carrier seats per capita against other
other developing markets such as Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia and China, where
Promoters holding Pre-Issue: 93.4%
penetration rates are between 0.35 and 0.65. The Industry is growing at ~12.0%
Promoters holding Post-Issue: 84.6%
CAGR over the past nine years and is expected to grow at a similar pace. Going
Note:**at Lower and Upper price band respectively
forward, we expect that improving penetration level will provide an opportunity to
Indigo to capture market share as it is expanding its fleet size from currently 97 to
158 by FY2108E. Indigo is better placed compared to its peers to leverage on the
Book Building
anticipated growth in the industry as the competition would face constraints in
adding capacity owing to stressed balance sheet and low or no profitability.
QIBs
At least 50%
Soft Crude prices to benefit the Aviation Industry: Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF)
Non-Institutional
At least 15%
forms a major cost component for all airline operators. Soft ATF prices have
Retail
At least 35%
boosted the operating performance of airline operators, including Indigo. ATF
prices are expected to continue to be tepid in the near future, mainly due to
higher global inventory levels of crude and owing to the subdued demand
Post Issue Shareholding Pattern
scenario. We expect lower crude prices and consequently lower ATF prices to lead
to a decline in airfares, which should boost air traffic volume growth in the
Promoters Group
84.6
country. Load factors will resultantly head higher, while the same has already
MF/Banks/Indian
been witnessed in 1QFY2016 for all airline companies.
FIs/FIIs/Public & Others
15.4
Outlook and Valuation: At the upper end of the price band, Interglobe is valued
at 2.1x EV/Sales and at a P/E of 21.3x (FY2015). The company is not comparable
to domestic peers on P/E basis as most of them are loss making while the
premium on EV/Sales basis is warranted due to Interglobe’s superior operating
performance and profitability. We have compared Interglobe to its like to like
international peer Ryanair, which trades at 3.2x EV/Sales and at a P/E multiple of
20.6x (FY2015). We believe that the valuation of Interglobe is justified,
considering the opportunity present in the vastly underpenetrated Indian air travel
market. Interglobe is better placed than its peers to capture higher market share
on the back of its proven Management track record, continuous fleet addition and
with its sustainable profitable business model. Hence we recommend a
“Subscribe” to the issue at the higher end of the price band.
Exhibit 1: Key Financial
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
Net Sales
5,565
9,203
11,117
13,925
% chg
45.2
65.4
20.8
25.3
Adj. Net Profit
141
783
474
1,296
% chg
(75.7)
457.2
(39.4)
173.1
OPM (%)
0.9
9.7
4.6
13.4
EPS (`)
4.1
22.8
13.8
37.7
Milan Desai
P/E (x)
187.0
33.6
55.4
20.3
+91 22 4000 3600 Ext: 6846
RoE (%)
57.8
201.4
112.8
304.0
[email protected]
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*EPS is based on Pre IPO outstanding shares at upper price band
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
1
Interglobe Aviation | IPO Note
Company Background
Interglobe Aviation Ltd operates Indigo, which is one of the largest passenger
airlines in India, with a market share of 37.4% (as of August 31, 2105). As per a
report by CAPA, Indigo is the seventh largest LCC in the world by total seats (as of
FY2015). Indigo started operations in August 2006 with a single aircraft and has
grown its fleet size to 97 Airbus A320s with an average fleet age of 3.7 years.
Presently, it operates services to 33 airports in India and to 5 international airports,
with a maximum of 623 domestic flights per day.
It operates on a LCC business model with particular focus on the domestic Indian
air travel market, while the share of its international routes is relatively low. It has
an asset light model with 22 of the current 97 aircrafts on finance lease and the
remaining 75 on an operating lease. It has an order book of 430 A320neo
aircrafts that are slated to be delivered over the next decade. The A320neo
aircrafts are the new engine option aircrafts that have enhanced seating capacity and
deliver fuel savings of up to 15%. Its bulk aircraft procurement strategy and focus on
being a pure LCC enables it to maintain one of the lowest CASK (Cost per Available
Seat Kilometer) ex-fuel compared to other Indian and international airline operators.
Issue details
The issue comprises of fresh issue of equity shares of `10 each in the price band of
`700-`765 aggregating up to `1,272cr; and offer for sale by Promoters and
Non-Promoters of 2.61cr shares aggregating to `1,998cr (at the upper end of the
price band). The issue constitutes 11.9% of the post issue paid-up equity share
capital of the company.
Exhibit 1: Share holding pattern
Particulars
Pre-Issue
Post-Issue
No. of shares
(%)
No. of shares
(%)
Promoter and Promoter Group
32,10,54,000
93.4
30,49,85,000
84.6
Non-Promoters
1,75,52,000
5.1
75,09,000
2.1
Others
51,10,000
1.5
4,78,52,065
13.3
Total
34,37,16,000
100
36,03,46,065
100
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: Offer size breakup
No. of Shares (cr.)
Value (` cr)
Fresh Issue
1.7
1,272
Offer for Sale
2.6
1,998
Total
4.3
3,270
Source: Company, Angel Research
Objects of the Issue
Retirement of certain outstanding lease liabilities and consequent acquisition
of aircrafts amounting to `1,166cr.
Purchase of ground support equipment for airline operations amounting to
`34cr.
The balance, which is contingent upon the issue price, will be utilised for
general corporate purpose.
October 23, 2015
2
Interglobe Aviation | IPO Note
Investment Arguments
Cost competiveness vis-à-vis its peers
Interglobe has been the only passenger airline operator in India to consistently
post profits over the past seven years while its Indian peers have posted losses,
during the same period. The consistent profitability is largely due to its operating
structure, which provides it an edge over competition.
Exhibit 3: Cost structure advantage in comparison to Peers
Expenses as a percentage of Sales
SpiceJet Indigo Ryanair
Maintenance
12.9
3.0
2.4
Fleet Related (Lease/Depreciation/Interest)
22.2
17.0
9.9
Operating Expenses (Fuel, Airport Charges, Overheads)
83.1
69.6
70.6
Source: Company, Angel Research
The magnitude of the aircraft orders placed by the company has enabled it to
negotiate favorable terms with Airbus as well as other suppliers and service
providers. This has created a structural cost advantage for the company in terms of
operations and maintenance of aircrafts.
Maintenance costs: Indigo’s young fleet (with an average fleet age of 3.2 years as
against 4.1 years for SpiceJet), is mostly on a short term operating lease. This
enables Indigo in achieving reliability in aircraft performance and lower
maintenance costs. The company’s maintenance cost, at
3.0% of sales, is
significantly lower to its closest industry Peer SpiceJet, which has maintenance cost
of 12.9%.
Fleet related expenses: Interglobe has deferred incentives which include profits
from the sale and lease back of aircrafts from the lessor which the company is
showing as differed incentive on the liabilities side and setting off against lease
rentals. As a result, its fleet related expenses are lower compared to its peers.
Other operating expenses: Even on other operating cost basis which include
employee, fuel, airport charges, etc, Indigo has fared better than its closest peer.
Company expected to deliver strong growth
We expect the company to report strong growth going forward and outperform
competition in terms of market share gains. Our view is on the back of the
following reasons:-
(a) Low air travel penetration in India to unearth growth opportunities for the
company: According to a report by CAPA, India has one of the lowest air
travel penetration rates in the world, defined on the basis of annual domestic
carrier seats per capita. At 0.08, the annual domestic carrier seat per capita in
India is low vis-a-vis other developing markets such as Brazil, Turkey,
Indonesia and China, where penetration rates are between 0.35 and 0.65
(annual seats per capita).
Also, the per capita income of a nation and air travel bear close correlation;
air travel demand is greater in developed countries than in developing
countries. Going forward, we believe that growth in India’s GDP would boost
October 23, 2015
3
Interglobe Aviation | IPO Note
air travel penetration in India. We believe that Interglobe is well positioned to
capture a good share of such anticipated growth in the Indian air travel
market. Moreover, as India’s per capita income doubles over the next five to
sever years, the growth in air traffic is expected to be exponential.
Exhibit 4: Annual domestic seats per capita
Exhibit 5: GDP growth & Air travel trends
0.65 (Brazil)
6.0
0.70
0.53
4.8
5.0
0.60
(Colombia )
0.41
4.0
0.50
3.3
(Indonesia)
0.48
2.6
0.29
3.0
0.40
0.35 (China) (Thailand )
(Philippines)
2.0
1.6
0.30
1.0
0.20
0.10.30.40.40.40.40.40.50.50.50.60.70.70.81.01.1
0.08 (India)
0.0
0.10
-
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
(GDP per capita based on PPP CY2014 )
Source: Company, Angel Research
Source: Company, Angel Research
(b) Healthy capacity expansion: The company’s fleet has expanded from
39 aircrafts in FY2011 to 97 currently. The company plans to further expand
the fleet to 154 aircrafts by FY2018, which would include the purchase of
53 new Airbus A 320neo aircrafts (having a better fuel efficiency profile and
higher seating capacity).
Earlier in
2011, the company had placed an order with Airbus for
180 aircrafts, to be delivered over the period of FY2015-23. In FY2015, the
company placed a fresh order with Airbus for 250 aircrafts, the delivery of
which would be phased between FY2018-26. Further, we do not foresee the
company’s competition resorting to any aggressive expansion as most of the
companies in the sector are currently incurring losses. As a result, we believe
that the company is well placed to capture a higher market share in the
growing Indian air travel industry.
Exhibit 6: Robust capacity expansion plan
Exhibit 7: Aircraft orders status
180
300
160
250
250
140
53
120
26
200
180
9
100
150
80
100
60
100
102
108
101
94
40
77
66
55
50
20
39
0
0
FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016EFY2017EFY2018E
FY2005
FY2011
FY2015
Airbus 320
Airbus Neo 330
Fleets
Source: Company, Angel Research
Source: Company, Angel Research
October 23, 2015
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Interglobe Aviation | IPO Note
Weakness in Crude translates to favorable environment for
Aviation Industry
ATF is a major cost component for all airline operators. As on FY2015, the fuel
cost as a percentage of sales stood at 41.3% for Indigo. Prior to September 2014,
fuel expense as a percentage of sales was in the range of 49.4%. The decline in
prices of ATF has boosted the operating performance of air line operators,
including Indigo. ATF prices are likely to continue to be tepid in the near future,
mainly due to higher global inventory levels of crude and owing to a subdued
demand scenario. Going forward, we expect lower crude prices and consequently
lower ATF prices to lead to a decline in airfares, which in turn would possibly boost
air traffic volumes. Load factors will resultantly head higher, while the same has
already been witnessed in 1QFY2016 for all airline companies.
Exhibit 8: Falling crude prices vs passenger traffic growth
12.5
15.0
10.0
6.0
5.0
(1.8)
-
(2.5)
(5.0)
(3.4)
(10.0)
(15.0)
(20.0)
(19.5)
(25.0)
FY13
FY14
FY15
Passenger traffic Growth (%)
Crude price change (%)
Source: Company
Key risks/concerns
Low Entry Barriers: The Indian airline industry is characterized by low entry barriers
given the availability of leasing options and external finance. Increased
competition can impact the load factors of airline companies.
Increase in Crude Oil prices: Since crude oil is a major portion of operating
expense for all airline carries, any sharp increase in crude oil prices will impact the
profitability of the company.
Currency Fluctuation Risk: Most of the company’s debt is funded via ECBs. Any
adverse impact on the currency could impact the profitability of the company.
October 23, 2015
5
Interglobe Aviation | IPO Note
Outlook and Valuation
Interglobe has steadily increased its fleet size since its inception and remained
profitable over the years, largely due to its bulk aircraft procurement strategy and
operational efficiencies. The company has registered a CAGR of 39.8% in
revenues over FY2010-15 to `13,925cr and its earnings have grown at a CAGR of
22.0% to `1,296cr over the same period. For 1QFY2016, the company has
reported a net profit of `640cr. The company is expected to grow on the back of
opportunities arising out of growth in the domestic air travel industry. Also, decline
in average ticket prices should result in higher volume growth for the company.
At the upper end of the price band, Interglobe is valued at 2.1x EV/Sales and at a
P/E of 21.3x (FY2015). The company is not comparable to domestic peers on P/E
basis as most of them are loss making while the premium on EV/Sales basis is
warranted due to Interglobe’s superior operating performance and profitability.
We have compared Interglobe to its like to like international peer Ryanair, which
trades at 3.2x EV/Sales and at a P/E multiple of 20.6x (FY2015). We believe that
the valuation of Interglobe is justified, considering the opportunity present in the
vastly underpenetrated Indian air travel market. Interglobe is better placed than its
peers to capture higher market share on the back of its proven Management track
record, continuous fleet addition and with its sustainable profitable business
model. Hence we recommend a “Subscribe” to the issue at the higher end of the
price band.
Exhibit 9: Valuations
PAT Margin
Currency
Sales
PAT
P/E EV/Sales
(%)
Interglobe Aviation FY2015
` cr
13,925
1,296
9.3
21.3
2.0
SpiceJet
FY2015
` cr
5,202
(748)
-
-
0.8
Ryanair*
FY2015 mn
5,654
867
15.3
20.6
3.2
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Mcap based on post IPO O/s Shares at upper price
band
October 23, 2015
6
Interglobe Aviation | IPO Note
Exhibit 10: Market Share FY09-15
Exhibit 11: Segmental market share (top 10 routes-FY15)
(%)
IndiGo
Jet Airways
Air India Ltd
Indigo
Jet Airways
Air India
SpiceJet
Go Air Others
40
SpiceJet
GoAir
Kingfisher
100%
9%
14%
Others
19%
34
80%
17%
30
20%
17%
18%
60%
11%
22
13%
20
3%
17
16%
10%
15
40%
10
9
53%
20%
40%
39%
2
0
0%
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
Top 10 Metro to
Top 10 Metro to Non- Top 10 Non-metro to
(10)
Metro routes
metro routes
Non-metro routes
Source: Company
Source: Company
Exhibit 12: Market share (top 5 domestic - by traffic)
Exhibit 13: Maintenance Cost per ASK (US¢) (FY2014)
Indigo
Jet Airways
Air India
SpiceJet
Go Air
100%
10
13
17
16
Jet Airways
1.0
25
80%
14
13
15
17
10
19
23
60%
21
15
SpiceJet
0.9
18
15
23
14
40%
19
Go Air
0.4
20%
40
42
39
30
33
0%
Air India
0.3
Indigo
0.2
Source: Company
Source: Company; Note: ASK (Available Seat Kilometer)
Exhibit 14: Fuel Cost per ASK (US¢) (FY2014)
Exhibit 15: Ownership Cost Per ASK (US¢) (FY2014)
Air India
3.5
Air India
2.6
Go Air
3.4
Jet Airways
2.0
Jet Airways
3.2
Go Air
1.2
SpiceJet
2.9
SpiceJet
1.2
Indigo
3.1
Indigo
1.0
Source: Company; Note: ASK (Available Seat Kilometer)
Source: Company; Note: ASK (Available Seat Kilometer)
October 23, 2015
7
Interglobe Aviation | IPO Note
Exhibit 16: Fleet Size and Order Book
Exhibit 17: CASK (ex-fuel) (US¢)
800
Fleet Size
Order Book
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
-
Source: Company
Source: Company; Note: CASK (Cost per Available Seat Kilometer)
Exhibit 18: Average Fleet Age (years)
Exhibit 19: EBITDAR margin
(%)
Source: Company
Source: Company
October 23, 2015
8
Interglobe Aviation | IPO Note
Profit & Loss Statement
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
1QFY2016
Net Sales
5,565
9,203
11,117
13,925
4,212
% Chg
45.2
65.4
20.8
25.3
Total expenditure
5,516
8,309
10,610
12,056
3,239
Aircraft and engine rentals (net)
801
1,356
1,670
1,952
602
Aircraft fuel expenses
2,874
4,313
5,513
5,748
1,348
Purchase of stock in trade
34
56
58
82
23
Employee benefits
512
690
921
1,189
383
Other expenses
1,296
1,896
2,447
3,088
884
EBITDA
49
894
507
1,870
972
EBIDTA %
0.9
9.7
4.6
13.4
23.1
Depreciation
67
86
226
302
120
EBIT
(18)
808
281
1,567
852
Interest and Financial Charges
51
58
123
116
33
Other Income
144
237
316
384
106
PBT
75
987
474
1,836
925
Tax
(66)
204
(1)
540
285
% of PBT
(87.7)
20.7
(0.2)
29.4
30.8
PAT before Exceptional item
141
783
474
1,296
640
Exceptional item
-
-
-
-
-
PAT
141
783
474
1,296
640
% Chg
(75.7)
457.2
(39.4)
173.1
PAT %
2.5
8.5
4.3
9.3
15.2
*EPS (`)
4.1
22.8
13.8
37.7
18.6
Note: *EPS calculation is based on Pre IPO outstanding shares
October 23, 2015
9
Interglobe Aviation | IPO Note
Balance Sheet
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
1QFY2016
Sources of Funds
Equity Capital
31
31
31
34
344
Reserves Total
213
358
390
392
(483)
Networth
243
389
421
426
(139)
Total Debt
936
1,699
3,081
3,588
3,567
Other long term liabilities
279
723
1,296
2,017
2,198
Deferred Incentives
1,180
1,530
1,753
1,752
1,647
Long term provisions
16
23
37
52
55
Total Liabilities
2,589
4,419
6,640
8,245
7,744
Application of Funds
Net Block
886
1,764
3,956
4,876
4,842
Capital WIP
-
7
-
0
1
LT Loans and Advances
297
525
801
1,124
1,154
Other non-current assets
89
486
1,432
1,606
1,510
Investments
523
1,138
1,272
517
0
Current Assets
1,785
1,932
1,643
2,651
3,069
Inventories
37
52
67
131
168
Sundry Debtors
39
69
89
105
117
Cash and Bank Balance
1,309
1,341
1,102
1,999
2,269
ST Loans and Advances
318
359
223
156
211
Other Current Asset
82
112
162
261
302
Current Liabilities
992
1,434
2,464
2,529
2,831
Net Current Assets
793
498
(821)
122
238
Total Assets
2,589
4,419
6,640
8,245
7,744
October 23, 2015
10
Interglobe Aviation | IPO Note
Cash flow statement
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
1QFY2016
Profit before tax
75
987
474
1,836
925
Depreciation
67
86
226
302
120
Change in Working Capital
(265)
327
1,080
(45)
155
Less: Other income
(144)
(237)
(316)
(384)
(106)
Direct taxes paid
66
(204)
1
(540)
(285)
Cash Flow from Operations
(201)
958
1,465
1,169
809
(Inc)/ Dec in Fixed Assets
(55)
(885)
(2,185)
(921)
33
(Inc)/ Dec in Investments
(1,326)
(1,662)
(2,410)
(1,788)
(517)
Other income
144
237
316
384
106
Cash Flow from Investing
(1,484)
(2,935)
(5,501)
(2,822)
(312)
Issue/(Buy Back) of Equity
-
-
-
0
309
Inc./(Dec.) in loans
255
1,214
1,968
1,244
162
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)
-
(638)
(442)
(1,291)
(1,207)
Others
1,963
1,431
2,271
2,597
509
Cash Flow from Financing
2,218
2,008
3,797
2,550
(227)
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash
533
32
(239)
898
270
Opening Cash balances
776
1,309
1,341
1,102
1,999
Closing Cash balances
1,309
1,341
1,102
1,999
2,269
Key Ratios
Y/E March
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS)
187.0
33.6
55.4
20.3
P/CEPS
127.0
30.3
37.5
16.5
Per Share Data (`)
EPS (Basic)
4.1
22.8
13.8
37.7
EPS (fully diluted)
4.1
22.8
13.8
37.7
Cash EPS
6.0
25.3
20.4
46.5
Returns (%)
RoCE (Pre-tax)
-
38.70
8.01
39.04
Angel RoIC (Pre-tax)
-
109.1
11.7
77.8
RoE
57.8
201.4
112.8
304.0
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Net Block) (x)
6.3
5.2
2.8
2.9
Inventory / Sales (days)
2
2
2
3
Receivables (days)
3
3
3
3
Payables (days)
66
63
85
77
Note:*EPS calculation is based on Pre IPO outstanding share and valuation is computed at upper
price band
October 23, 2015
11
Interglobe Aviation | IPO Note
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. Angel or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation /
managed or co-managed public offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. Angel/analyst
has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and has not been engaged in market making activity
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