3QFY2017 Result Update | Pharmaceutical
February 22, 2017
Ipca Laboratories
ACCUMULATE
CMP
`544
Performance Highlights
Target Price
`613
Y/E March (` cr)
3QFY2017 2QFY2017
% chg (QoQ) 3QFY2016
% chg (YoY)
Investment Period
12 Months
Net sales
731
853
(14.3)
675
8.3
Stock Info
Other income
15
33
(55.2)
16
(8.0)
Sector
Pharmaceutical
Operating profit
102
109
(6.7)
79
29.3
Market Cap (` cr)
6,988
Tax
22
37
(40.6)
18
21.3
Net Debt (` cr)
337
Adj. net profit/(loss)
41
55
(24.7)
27
54.6
Beta
0.5
Source: Company, Angel Research
52 Week High / Low
643/402
IPCA Labs posted results lower than expected for 3QFY2017 on both sales and
Avg. Daily Volume
44,244
net profit fronts, however OPM’s were in-line with expectations. In sales, the
Face Value (`)
2
company posted sales of `731cr, a yoy growth of 8.3% v/s `815cr expected. On
BSE Sensex
28,762
EBITDA front, the company posted EBITDA of 13.9% (v/s 13.5% expected) v/s
Nifty
8,908
11.6% in 3QFY2016. Consequently, PAT came in at `40.5cr (v/s `61.6cr
Reuters Code
IPCA.BO
expected) v/s `27cr in 3QFY2016, growth of 54.6% yoy. The Tax as % of PBT
Bloomberg Code
[email protected]
was 34.9% of PBT v/s 40.5% of PBT in 3QFY2016.We maintain our Accumulate.
OPM in-line with expectations: In sales, the company posted sales of `731cr, up
Shareholding Pattern (%)
8.3% yoy v/s `815cr expected. Formulations at `569cr, posted a yoy growth of
Promoters
46.1
6.0% and API at `162cr, posted a yoy growth of 16.0%. On EBITDA front, the
company posted EBITDA of
13.9% (v/s
13.5% expected) v/s
11.6% in
MF / Banks / Indian Fls
25.3
3QFY2016. Consequently, PAT came in at `40.5cr (v/s `61.6cr expected) v/s
FII / NRIs / OCBs
16.3
`27cr in 3QFY2016, growth of 54.6% yoy. The Tax as % of PBT was 34.9% of
Indian Public / Others
12.3
PBT v/s 40.5% of PBT in 3QFY2016.
Outlook and Valuation: We expect net sales to post a CAGR of 14.8% to
Abs. (%)
3m 1yr 3yr
`3,747cr and EPS to register a CAGR of 34.8% to `19.2 over FY2016-18E. The
Sensex
10.8
21.3
38.9
company’s financials will be impacted by the USFDA import alert on the Ratlam,
Ipca
3.3
(13.9)
(37.6)
Indore and Silvassa facilities. While the problems are likely to persist for a while,
we expect the company’s performance to witness a gradual pick-up going
3-Year Daily Price Chart
forward. Given the inexpensive valuations, we maintain our Accumulate rating.
1,000
Key financials (Consolidated)
800
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
Net sales
3,117
2,844
3,258
3,747
600
% chg
(2.6)
(8.7)
14.5
15.0
400
Adj. Net profit
254
133
152
242
% chg
(48.6)
(47.6)
14.4
58.9
200
EPS
20.1
10.6
12.1
19.2
EBITDA margin (%)
16.2
10.6
12.8
15.3
Source: Company, Angel Research
P/E (x)
27.5
52.5
45.8
28.8
RoE (%)
12.2
5.9
6.4
9.5
RoCE (%)
10.9
4.1
5.7
8.6
P/BV (x)
3.2
3.0
2.9
2.6
Sarabjit Kour Nangra
EV/Sales (x)
2.4
2.6
2.2
2.0
+91 22 39357800 Ext: 6806
EV/EBITDA (x)
15.1
24.4
17.0
13.1
[email protected]
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of February 21, 2017
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
1
Ipca Laboratories | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 3QFY2017 - Standalone performance
Y/E March (` cr)
3QFY2017 2QFY2017
% chg (QoQ) 3QFY2016
% chg (YoY) 9MFY2017 9MFY2016
% chg (yoy)
Net sales
731
853
(14.3)
675
8.3
2405
2160
11.4
Other income
15
33
(55.2)
16
(8.0)
66
45
44.9
Total income
746
886
(15.8)
691
8.0
2471
2205
12.1
Gross profit
488
511
(4.5)
424
15.2
1530
1331
15.0
Gross margins (%)
66.8
59.9
62.8
63.6
61.6
Operating profit
102
109
(6.7)
79
29.3
318
224
41.8
Operating margin (%)
13.9
12.8
11.6
13.2
10.4
Interest
10
7
41.9
10
(0.9)
19
22
(13.8)
Depreciation
43
43
0.5
40
7.9
128
117
9.7
PBT
64
92
(31.0)
45
-
237
131
80.9
Provision for taxation
22
37
(40.6)
18
89
36
144.8
Less: Excep. Items (gains)/ loss
41
0
0
4
35
Reported Net profit
41
55
(24.7)
26
57.2
144
60
141.5
Adj. Net profit/(loss)
41
55
(24.7)
26
57.2
147
85
72.5
EPS (`)
3.2
4.3
2.1
11.4
6.6
Source: Company, Angel Research, FY numbers are consolidated
Exhibit 2: 3QFY2017 - Actual vs Angel estimates
(` cr)
Actual
Estimates
Variation (%)
Net sales
731
815
(10.3)
Other income
15
15
0.3
Operating profit
102
110
(7.7)
Interest
10
9
5.0
Tax
22
8
163.7
Adjusted Net profit/(loss)
41
62
(33.7)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Revenue below our estimates; up 8.3% yoy: The formulation sales (`569cr) posted
a yoy growth of 6.0%, while API (`162cr) posted a yoy growth of 16.0%. The
formulation sales growth was driven by Domestic Formulation (`335cr), posting a
yoy growth of 9.0%.
Domestic formulation sales (`335cr) posted a yoy growth of 9.0%, while exports
formulation sales (`233cr) posted a yoy growth of 3.0%. Domestic API sales
(`34cr) posted a growth of 23% yoy and export API sales posted yoy growth of
14% yoy to end the period at `128cr.
Overall, for 3QFY2017 exports contributed 49.4% to the top-line, while the
domestic business contributed the rest. The overall contribution of formulations was
at 77.8% of total sales during the quarter. This is against 78.6% in 3QFY2016.
February 22, 2017
2
Ipca Laboratories | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 3: Domestic sales trend
440
404
400
345
360
335
308
320
280
250
240
200
160
120
80
35
38
34
28
24
40
0
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
2QFY2017
3QFY2017
Formulation
API
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 4: Exports sales trend
320
275
280
264
249
233
240
221
200
166
146
160
128
117
120
91
80
40
0
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
2QFY2017
3QFY2017
Formulation
API
Source: Company, Angel Research
OPM expands yoy; higher than expected: On the operating front, the EBITDA
margin came in at 13.9% (v/s. 13.5% expected) v/s. 11.6% in 3QFY2016. While
the GPM’s (which came in at 66.8% in 3QFY2017 v/s. 62.8% in 3QFY2016),
higher expenses during the quarter aided the lower OPM expansion in comparison
to the GPM expansion. Other expenses posted a yoy growth of 14.8%.
February 22, 2017
3
Ipca Laboratories | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 5: OPM trend
15.0
13.9
11.6
12.8
12.0
13.1
9.0
8.4
6.0
3.0
0.0
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
2QFY2017
3QFY2017
Source: Company, Angel Research
Reported net profit lower than estimates: Consequently, the Adj. PAT came in at
`41cr (v/s. `62cr expected) v/s. `24cr in 3QFY2016. Moreover better than
expected OPM coupled with lower interest expenses lead the company to post a
robust growth during the period.
Exhibit 6: Adj. Net profit trend
60
55
48
50
41
38
40
30
24
20
10
0
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
2QFY2017
3QFY2017
Source: Company, Angel Research
Concall Highlights
IPCA plans to invite USFDA in 4QFY2017 to inspect its two formulations plants
(Piparia and Pithampur), Ratlam-based API plant will be offered for re-
inspection in 1HFY2018. The company expects remediation cost to decline
significantly from 2QFY2018 onwards.
Plans to file 8-10 ANDAs in FY2018.
Anti-malaria business in institutional segment is expected to start in FY2018.
R&D as % of sales stands at 4%; likely to increase to 4.7% in FY2018.
HCQS production can restart in six months.
February 22, 2017
4
Ipca Laboratories | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Investment arguments
Domestic formulations business - the cash cow: Ipca has been successful in
changing its business focus to the high-margin chronic and lifestyle segments
from the low-margin anti-malarial segment. The chronic and lifestyle
segments comprising CVS, anti-diabetics, pain-management, CNS and
dermatology products, constitute more than 50% of the company’s domestic
formulation sales. The Management has ramped up its field force significantly
with addition of divisions in the domestic formulations segment, taking the
current total strength to nearly 4,000MRs. With an expected pick-up in sales in
FY2017, we expect the domestic formulation business to grow at a CAGR of
16.2% over FY2016-18E.
Exports currently under pressure; should pickup only by FY2018: On the
formulations front, Ipca has been increasing its penetration in regulated
markets viz. Europe and the US, by expanding the list of generic drugs backed
by its own API. In the emerging and semi-regulated markets, the company
plans to focus on building brands in the CVS, CNS, pain-management and
anti-malarial segments along with tapping new geographies. On the API front,
where the company is among the low-cost producers, it is aggressively
pursuing supply tie-ups with pharmaceutical MNCs.
After the USFDA inspection at the company’s APl manufacturing facility at
Ratlam (Madhya Pradesh), the company has received certain inspection
observations in Form 483, consequent to which the company had voluntarily
decided to temporarily suspend API shipments from this manufacturing facility
to the US markets until the issue getting resolved. However, the Form 483 was
converted into an import alert, except for 4 APIs which constituted around 45%
of US sales in FY2014.
The company’s Silvassa and Indore facilities (formulation facilities) are also
under import alert. These developments impacted FY2015 sales, while
FY2018 should see some revival. We expect exports to grow at a CAGR of
15.0% over FY2016-18E.
Outlook & Valuation:
We expect net sales to post a CAGR of 14.8% to `3,747cr and EPS to register a
CAGR of 34.8% to `19.2cr over FY2016-18E. The company’s financials will be
impacted by the USFDA import alert on the Ratlam, Indore and Silvassa facilities.
While the problems are likely to persist for a while, we expect a gradual pick-up in
performance only by FY2018. However, given the valuations, we maintain our
Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `613.
February 22, 2017
5
Ipca Laboratories | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 7: Key Assumptions
FY2017E
FY2018E
Sales growth (%)
16.1
15.0
Domestic growth (%)
17.4
15.0
Exports growth (%)
15.0
15.0
Operating margins (%)
12.8
15.3
R&D Exp ( % of sales)
4.0
4.0
Capex (` cr)
500
500
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 8: One-year forward PE band
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
-
10x
15x
20x
25x
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 9: Recommendation summary
Company
Reco.
CMP Tgt Price Upside
FY2018E
FY16-18E
FY2018E
(`)
(`)
(%) PE (x) EV/Sales (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
CAGR in EPS (%) RoCE (%) RoE (%)
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
593
-
-
19.5
2.6
12.2
(10.8)
27.5
25.3
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
686
877
27.9
14.5
2.4
10.1
18.1
22.5
26.1
Cadila Healthcare
Neutral
440
-
-
22.9
3.6
16.6
13.5
23.6
27.1
Cipla
Sell
593
465
(21.5)
24.2
2.7
16.3
14.2
12.2
13.9
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
2,899
-
-
22.1
2.6
11.4
(2.7)
15.3
15.2
Dishman Pharma
Neutral
229
-
-
20.3
2.3
10.0
13.3
10.3
10.9
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
2,683
-
-
44.5
6.8
32.8
16.9
37.5
34.5
Indoco Remedies
Reduce
272
240
(11.8)
17.0
2.0
10.9
33.2
19.1
20.1
Ipca labs
Accumulate
554
613
10.7
28.8
2.0
12.9
34.8
8.6
9.5
Lupin
Buy
1,469
1,809
23.1
21.2
4.0
13.1
17.2
24.4
20.9
Sanofi India
Neutral
4,186
-
-
24.3
3.2
17.4
22.2
25.6
28.8
Sun Pharma
Buy
673
847
25.8
19.1
4.0
12.2
26.5
18.9
20.1
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year ending
February 22, 2017
6
Ipca Laboratories | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Company background
Formed in 1949, Ipca Laboratories is a market leader in the anti-malarials and
rheumatoid arthritis segments. The company is a notable name in the domestic
formulations category with 150 formulations across major therapeutic segments
like cardiovascular (CVS), anti-diabetes, anti-malaria, pain-management (NSAID),
anti-bacterial, central nervous system (CNS) and gastro-intestinal. The company
has 7 production units, which are approved by most of the discerning regulatory
authorities including USFDA, UKMHRA, Australia-TGA, South Africa-MCC and
Brazil-ANVISA.
February 22, 2017
7
Ipca Laboratories | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Profit & loss statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
Gross sales
2,778
3,232
3,157
2,891
3,310
3,807
Less: Excise duty
25
33
40
47
52
60
Net Sales
2,754
3,199
3,117
2,844
3,258
3,747
Other operating income
59
82
40
41
41
41
Total operating income
2,813
3,282
3,157
2,885
3,299
3,788
% chg
19.3
16.7
(3.8)
(8.6)
14.3
14.8
Total expenditure
2,190
2,471
2,613
2,543
2,843
3,175
Net raw materials
1,097
1,137
1,155
1,058
1,238
1,330
Other mfg costs
245
250
277
253
290
333
Personnel
392
498
565
627
718
826
Other
456
587
616
606
596
686
EBITDA
564
728
504
301
416
572
% chg
19.5
29.1
(30.8)
(40.2)
38.0
37.5
(% of Net Sales)
20.5
22.8
16.2
10.6
12.8
15.3
Depreciation & amortisation
87
103
180
172
233
268
EBIT
477
625
324
129
183
304
% chg
17.8
31.1
(48.1)
(60.2)
41.8
66.2
(% of Net Sales)
17.3
19.5
10.4
4.5
5.6
8.1
Interest & other charges
33
27
28
32
32
32
Other Income
14
22
28
17
17
17
(% of PBT)
2.8
3.2
7.8
10.9
8.1
5.1
Recurring PBT
517
703
364
155
209
330
% chg
24.0
35.9
(48.2)
(57.5)
34.8
58.0
Extraordinary expense/(Inc.)
63.3
72.2
-
39.5
-
-
PBT (reported)
454
631
364
115
209
330
Tax
129.9
152.4
101.9
18.6
52.2
82.4
(% of PBT)
28.6
24.2
28.0
16.1
25.0
25.0
PAT (reported)
324
478
262
97
156
247
Add: Share of earnings of asso.
-
0
(5)
(3)
-
-
PAT after MI (reported)
324
478
254
94
152
242
ADJ. PAT
340
495
254
133
152
242
% chg
18.4
45.6
(48.6)
(47.6)
14.4
58.9
(% of Net Sales)
11.8
14.9
8.2
3.3
4.7
6.5
Basic EPS (`)
26.9
39.2
20.1
10.6
12.1
19.2
Fully Diluted EPS (`)
26.9
39.2
20.1
10.6
12.1
19.2
% chg
18.4
45.6
(48.6)
(47.6)
14.4
58.9
February 22, 2017
8
Ipca Laboratories | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Balance sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E FY2018E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity share capital
25
25
25
25
25
25
Reserves & surplus
1,529
1,934
2,183
2,281
2,419
2,646
Shareholders Funds
1,554
1,960
2,208
2,306
2,444
2,671
Minority interest
-
-
-
-
-
-
Total loans
523
603
829
595
725
867
Other Long Term Liabilities
1
1
-
-
-
-
Long Term Provisions
12
15
22
23
23
23
Deferred tax liability
130
147
174
169
169
169
Total Liabilities
2,220
2,726
3,233
3,094
3,338
3,708
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross block
1,537
1,882
2,626
2,828
3,328
3,828
Less: Acc. depreciation
475
578
758
930
1,163
1,431
Net Block
1,063
1,303
1,868
1,898
2,165
2,397
Goodwill
42
50
34
34
34
34
Capital work-in-progress
129
165
165
165
165
165
Investments
9
9
16
96
96
96
Long Term Loans and Adv.
57
71
115
108
123
142
Current assets
1,397
1,602
1,614
1,522
1,743
2,005
Cash
58
76
125
162
184
220
Loans & advances
42
67
47
43
50
50
Other
1,297
1,459
1,442
1,317
1,509
1,735
Current liabilities
477
485
579
729
835
960
Net Current Assets
921
1,117
1,035
793
908
1,044
Other Non current Assets
-
9
-
-
Total Assets
2,220
2,726
3,233
3,094
3,338
3,708
February 22, 2017
9
Ipca Laboratories | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Cash flow statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017E FY2018E
Profit before tax
454
631
364
115
209
330
Depreciation
87
103
180
172
233
268
(Inc)/Dec in working capital
(116)
(193)
88
286
(411)
1,088
Direct taxes paid
(130)
(152)
(102)
(19)
(52)
(82)
Cash Flow from Operations
295
389
530
555
137
1,722
(Inc.)/Dec.in fixed assets
(257)
(380)
(745)
(202)
(500)
(500)
(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments
-
-
-
-
-
-
Cash Flow from Investing
(257)
(380)
(745)
(202)
(500)
(500)
Issue of Equity
0
-
-
-
-
-
Inc./(Dec.) in loans
(5)
83
232
(232)
130
142
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)
(59)
(74)
(15)
(15)
(15)
(15)
Others
72
1
47
(69)
270
(1,314)
Cash Flow from Financing
8
10
264
(316)
385
(1,187)
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash
46
18
49
37
22
35
Opening Cash balances
12
58
76
125
162
184
Closing Cash balances
58
76
125
162
184
220
February 22, 2017
10
Ipca Laboratories | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Key Ratios
Y/E March
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS)
20.6
14.1
27.5
52.5
45.8
28.8
P/CEPS
16.4
11.7
16.1
22.9
18.1
13.7
P/BV
4.5
3.6
3.2
3.0
2.9
2.6
Dividend yield (%)
0.7
0.9
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
EV/Sales
2.7
2.3
2.4
2.6
2.2
2.0
EV/EBITDA
13.1
10.2
15.1
24.4
17.0
13.1
EV / Total Assets
3.3
2.7
2.4
2.4
2.1
2.0
Per Share Data (`)
EPS (Basic)
26.9
39.2
20.1
10.6
12.1
19.2
EPS (fully diluted)
26.9
39.2
20.1
10.6
12.1
19.2
Cash EPS
33.8
47.4
34.4
24.2
30.5
40.4
DPS
4.0
5.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
Book Value
123.1
155.3
175.0
182.7
193.6
211.7
DuPont Analysis
EBIT margin
17.3
19.5
10.4
4.5
5.6
8.1
Tax retention ratio
71.4
75.8
72.0
83.9
75.0
75.0
Asset turnover (x)
1.4
1.4
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.1
ROIC (Post-tax)
17.2
20.2
8.2
3.6
4.5
6.6
Cost of Debt (Post Tax)
4.5
3.6
2.9
3.7
3.6
3.0
Leverage (x)
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.3
Operating ROE
21.8
24.9
9.8
3.6
4.6
7.6
Returns (%)
RoCE (Pre-tax)
23.2
25.3
10.9
4.1
5.7
8.6
Angel RoIC (Pre-tax)
25.0
27.7
12.0
4.5
6.2
9.2
RoE
24.2
28.2
12.2
5.9
6.4
9.5
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross Block)
2.0
1.9
1.4
1.1
1.1
1.1
Inventory / Sales (days)
92
88
103
111
96
97
Receivables (days)
49
48
46
46
52
52
Payables (days)
42
45
43
90
59
60
WC cycle (ex-cash) (days)
106
106
113
97
82
89
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.2
Net debt to EBITDA
0.8
0.7
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.1
Int. Coverage (EBIT / Int.)
February 22, 2017
11
Ipca Laboratories | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
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registered entity with SEBI for Research Analyst in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 vide registration number
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/dealing in securities Market. Angel or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public
offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months.
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should
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contrary view, if any.
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Disclosure of Interest Statement
Ipca Laboratories
1. Financial interest of research analyst or Angel or his Associate or his relative
No
2. Ownership of 1% or more of the stock by research analyst or Angel or associates or relatives
No
3. Served as an officer, director or employee of the company covered under Research
No
4. Broking relationship with company covered under Research
No
Ratings (Based on expected returns
Buy (> 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
over 12 months investment period):
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Sell (< -15)
February 22, 2017
12