3QFY2017 Result Update | Pharmaceutical
March 6, 2017
Dishman Pharmaceuticals
SELL
CMP
`222
Performance Highlights
Target Price
`143
Y/E March (` cr) 3QFY2017 2QFY2017
% chg (qoq) 3QFY2016
% chg (yoy)
Investment Period
-
Net sales
356
427
(16.5)
386
(7.6)
Other income
21
17
22.4
5
333.9
Stock Info
Operating profit
90
106
(15.1)
106
(15.1)
Sector
Pharmaceutical
Interest
13
19
(29.2)
18
(23.8)
Market Cap (` cr)
3,605
Net profit/(loss)
51
55
(7.3)
45
13.2
Net Debt (` cr)
845
Source: Company, Angel Research
Beta
0.8
52 Week High / Low
268 / 128
Dishman Pharmaceuticals posted results lower than expected for 3QFY2017, with
Avg. Daily Volume
262,761
sales at `356cr v/s. `386cr in 3QFY2016, down by 7.6% yoy, mainly on the back
Face Value (`)
2
of CRAMS. CRAMS sales (`246.7cr) de-grew by 16.5% yoy, constituting 69.2% of
BSE Sensex
28,832
sales in 3QFY2017; while others (`110cr) posted a growth of 21.2% yoy. On the
Nifty
8,898
operating front, the gross margin came in at 80.8% (v/s. 78.8% expected) v/s.
Reuters Code
DISH.BO
77.2% in 3QFY2016, with EBIDTA margin coming in at 25.3% (v/s. 28.0%
expected) v/s. 27.5% in 3QFY2016. Consequently, the PAT came in at `51cr v/s.
Bloomberg Code
DISH@IN
`45cr in 3QFY2016, a yoy growth of 13.2%. We recommend a SELL.
Results lower than expected on all fronts: CRAMS sales (`246.7cr) de-grew by
Shareholding Pattern (%)
16.5% yoy, constituting 69.2% of sales in 3QFY2017; while others (`110cr)
Promoters
61.4
posted a growth of 21.2% yoy. CRAMS India revenues decreased by 31.7% yoy,
MF / Banks / Indian Fls
9.9
as some of the orders got deferred to the next quarter resulting in higher
FII / NRIs / OCBs
15.7
inventory. CRAMS Carbogen Amcis revenues de-grew by 7.3% due to deferral of
Indian Public / Others
13.0
sales to next quarter, which led to higher inventory. On the operating front, the
gross margin came in at 80.8% (v/s. 78.8% expected) v/s. 77.2% in 3QFY2016,
Abs. (%)
3m 1yr 3yr
with EBIDTA margin coming in at 25.3% (v/s. 28.0% expected) v/s. 27.5% in
Sensex
9.9
17.2
37.6
3QFY2016. Consequently, the PAT came in at `51cr v/s. `45cr in 3QFY2017, a
Dishman
(6.0)
29.8
415.2
yoy growth of 13.2%. This was against the expectations of `55cr.
Outlook and valuation: We expect Dishman’s net sales and net profit to grow at a
3-year price chart
CAGR of 6.4% and 16.3%, respectively, over FY2016-18E. At the current level,
300
Dishman is trading at 15.5x its FY2018E earnings. Given the restrained growth
and low profitability, we believe current valuations are expensive, and hence, we
250
maintain our SELL rating on the stock.
200
150
Key financials (Consolidated)
100
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
50
Net sales
1,575
1,596
1,644
1,808
% chg
14.7
1.3
3.0
10.0
0
Net profit
119.8
171.0
194.2
231.2
% chg
9.6
42.8
13.6
19.0
EPS (`)
7.4
10.6
12.0
14.3
Source: Company, Angel Research
EBITDA margin (%)
19.9
25.7
25.5
25.5
P/E (x)
29.9
21.0
18.4
15.5
RoE (%)
9.9
12.7
12.7
13.5
RoCE (%)
7.2
11.8
11.8
13.0
P/BV (x)
2.9
2.5
2.2
2.0
Sarabjit Kour Nangra
EV/Sales (x)
1.6
1.7
2.7
2.3
+91 22 3935 7800 Ext: 6806
EV/EBITDA (x)
8.3
6.5
10.5
9.1
[email protected]
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of March 3, 2017
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
1
Dishman Pharmaceuticals | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 3QFY2017 performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
3QFY2017
2QFY2017
% chg QoQ 3QFY2016
% chg YoY 9MFY2017 9MFY2016
% chg
Net sales
356
427
(16.5)
386
(7.6)
1,149
1,159
(0.8)
Other income
21
17
22.4
5
333.9
55
28
94.1
Total income
378
444
(15.0)
391
(3.4)
1,204
1,187
1.4
Gross profit
288
335
(14.0)
298
(3.4)
935
895
4.5
Gross margins
80.8
78.5
77.2
81.3
77.2
Operating profit
90
106
(15.1)
106
(15.1)
289
294
(1.8)
OPM (%)
25.3
24.9
27.5
25.1
25.4
Interest
13
19
(29.2)
18
(23.8)
55
75
(27.4)
Dep & amortization
29
31
(5.3)
31
(5.3)
89
91
(2.2)
PBT
69
74
(6.9)
62
9.8
201
157
28.1
Provision for taxation
18
19
(7.6)
17
2.1
49
43
13.8
Reported net profit
51
55
(6.6)
45
12.7
151
113
33.4
Less : Exceptional items
-
-
-
-
-
-
Minority interest
0
0
-
-
(1)
PAT after exceptional items
51
55
(7.3)
45
13.2
151
112
34.1
Adj. PAT
51
55
(7.3)
45
13.2
151
112
34.1
EPS (`)
6.3
6.8
5.5
18.7
13.9
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 3QFY2017 - Actual Vs Angel estimates
(` cr)
Actual
Estimates
Variation
Net sales
356
430
(17.1)
Other income
21
5
331.2
Operating profit
90
121
(25.3)
Interest
13
19
(27.6)
Tax
18
21
(16.2)
Net profit
51
55
(8.1)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Revenue below expectation: Dishman Pharmaceuticals posted results below
expectations for the quarter, with sales at `356cr v/s. `386cr in 3QFY2016, down
by 7.6% yoy, mainly on the back of CRAMS. CRAMS sales (`246.7cr) de-grew by
16.5% yoy, constituting 69.2% of sales in 3QFY2017; while others (`110cr) posted
a growth of 21.2% yoy.
Within CRAMS, Carbogen Amcis (`176.3cr) de-grew by 7.3%, CRAMS India
(`54.6cr) de-grew by 31.7% and CRAMS UK (`15.7cr) posted a yoy de-growth of
37.6%. Market Molecules declined on the back of Vitamin D (`60.1cr; a yoy
growth of 86.8%), while the other Marketable Molecules segment (`49.6cr)
de-grew by 15.0%.
CRAMS India revenues decreased by 31.7% yoy, as some of the orders got
deferred to the next quarter resulting in higher inventory. Currently both the
operational cells at HiPo facility are completely occupied and 3rd and 4th cells are
expected to be activated soon. CRAMS Carbogen Amcis revenues de-grew by 7.3%
due to deferral of sales to next quarter, which led to higher inventory. The
company is expected to supply higher development quantities in the next quarter.
March 6, 2017
2
Dishman Pharmaceuticals | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 3: Sales trend
440
427
420
406
400
386
380
366
356
360
340
320
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
2QFY2017
3QFY2017
Source: Company, Angel Research
OPM below expectation: On the operating front, the gross margin came in at
80.8% (v/s. 78.8% expected) v/s. 77.2% in 3QFY2016, with EBIDTA margin
coming in at 25.3% (v/s. 28.0% expected) v/s. 27.5% in 3QFY2016. The EBDITA
margin expansion came in lower than Gross margin expansion, mainly on the
back of dip in sales.
Carbogen Amcis posted an OPM of
18.9% in 3QFY2017 v/s.
19.2% in
3QFY2016, CRAMS India posted an OPM of 55.6% in 3QFY2017 v/s. 55.7% in
3QFY2016 & CRAMS UK posted an OPM of 20.1% in 3QFY2017 v/s. 32.1% in
3QFY2016. In Market Molecules segment, Vitamin D posted an OPM of 29.7% in
3QFY2017 v/s. 28.8% in 3QFY2016.
CRAMS Carbogen Amcis operating margin were in-line on yoy basis with strong
emphasis on process efficiencies. CRAMS India, were in-line on yoy basis due to
continued execution of high margin commercial and development orders, process
improvement and better product mix. Dishman Netherlands focused on high value
products like certain Vitamin D analogues and direct selling of cholesterol to end
customers. CRAMS UK and other marketable molecules saw a decline in EBITDA
margins, which had an impact on overall margin profile.
Exhibit 4: OPM trend (%)
29.0
27.5
27.0
24.9
25.3
25.0
25.3
21.7
23.0
21.0
19.0
17.0
15.0
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
2QFY2017
3QFY2017
Source: Company, Angel Research
March 6, 2017
3
Dishman Pharmaceuticals | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Net profit lower than expectation: Consequently, the PAT came in at `51cr v/s.
`45cr in 3QFY2016, a yoy growth of 13.2%. This was against, the expectations of
`55cr. Other Income, at `21cr v/s. `5cr in 3QFY2016, aided the net profit growth
to come in at 13.2%, in spite of a dip of 15.1% yoy in the EBDITA profits.
Exhibit 5: Net profit trend
60
55
50
51
50
45
46
40
30
20
10
0
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
2QFY2017
3QFY2017
Source: Company, Angel Research
Investment arguments
Focus on profitability: Dishman has been incurring a capex of ~`100cr on an
annual basis over the last couple of years. With the major capex out, the
company is now focused on improving the overall profitability of the business.
The same is evident in the improvement in OPM from 16.4% in FY2011 to
25.7% in FY2016, thereby improving the overall profitability of the company.
The RoCE of the company improved from 5.5% in FY2011 to 11.8% in
FY2016. Going forward, with focus on profitability, the company has laid
focus on sweating its assets and restructuring the business, which will lead to
improvement in profitability over the medium term. We expect the ROCE to
improve to 13.5% in FY2018E from 7.7% in FY2012. While the ROE improved
from, 6.3% in FY2012 to 12.7% in FY2016 and 13.7% in FY2018E. Company
expects to achieve ROE’s of 19-20% in next 3-4 years from here on.
CRAMS stabilizing: CRAMS, which contributes around 71% to the overall
business, has stabilised over the last two years, after a lull, posting a robust
growth of 14% in FY2012-14. In its Oncology Hippo (Hipo) Unit 9, the
Management expects to book more incremental revenues, where EBITDA
margins are high at
40-50%. Regarding the Vitamin-D business, the
Management expects to scale it up to `300cr with a 20% EBITDA margin.
Outlook and valuation
We expect Dishman’s net sales and net profit to post a CAGR of 6.4% and 16.3%,
respectively, over FY2016-18E. At the current level, Dishman is trading at 15.5x its
FY2018E earnings. Given the restrained growth and low profitability, we believe
that the current valuations are expensive, and hence, we maintain our SELL rating
on the stock with a Target Price of `143.
March 6, 2017
4
Dishman Pharmaceuticals | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 6: One-year forward PE
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
-
2x
6x
10x
14x
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 7: Recommendation summary
Company
Reco
CMP Tgt. price Upside
FY2018E
FY16-18E
FY2018E
(`)
(`)
% PE (x) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) CAGR in EPS (%) RoCE (%) RoE (%)
Alembic Pharma
Accumulate
603
689
14.3
17.9
2.5
11.9
(10.8)
27.5
25.3
Aurobindo Pharma Buy
675
877
30.0
14.3
2.4
10.0
18.1
22.5
26.1
Cadila Healthcare
Neutral
431
-
-
22.4
3.5
16.2
13.5
23.6
27.1
Cipla
Sell
588
465
(20.9)
24.0
2.7
16.1
14.2
12.2
13.9
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
2,872
-
-
21.9
2.6
11.3
(2.7)
15.3
15.2
Dishman Pharma
Sell
222
143
(35.6)
15.5
2.3
9.1
16.3
13.0
13.5
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
2,705
-
-
44.9
6.8
33.1
16.9
37.5
34.5
Indoco Remedies
Reduce
266
240
(9.8)
16.6
1.9
10.7
33.2
19.1
20.1
Ipca labs
Accumulate
550
613
11.5
28.6
2.0
12.8
34.8
8.6
9.5
Lupin
Buy
1,471
1,809
23.0
21.2
3.5
13.1
17.2
24.4
20.9
Sanofi India*
Neutral
4,301
-
-
25.0
3.3
17.9
22.2
25.6
28.8
Sun Pharma
Buy
686
847
23.5
19.4
4.1
12.4
26.5
18.9
20.1
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year ending
Background
Dishman commenced business in
1983 as a QUAT (Speciality Chemicals)
company and has since emerged to be a global leader in the segment. Since
1997, Dishman has diversified its interests towards the CRAMS segment. The
company has now established itself as a respected and preferred outsourcing
partner to various pharma majors, offering a portfolio of development, scale-up
and manufacturing services. The company caters to the customers' needs ranging
from chemical development to commercial manufacture and supply of APIs.
Dishman has large scale manufacturing facilities in India and China.
March 6, 2017
5
Dishman Pharmaceuticals | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2013 FY2014 FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
Gross sales
1,273
1,387
1,582
1,602
1,660
1,826
Less: Excise duty
6
14
7
6
16
18
Net sales
1,268
1,373
1,575
1,596
1,644
1,808
Other operating income
5
12
44
1
1
1
Total operating income
1,272
1,385
1,619
1,597
1,644
1,809
% chg
13.2
8.9
16.9
(1.4)
3.0
10.0
Total expenditure
982
1,053
1,262
1,186
1,224
1,347
Net raw materials
376
373
535
336
411
452
Other mfg costs
95
103
77
115
123
136
Personnel
351
412
423
535
493
543
Other
161
164
227
199
197
216
EBITDA
285
320
314
410
420
462
% chg
28.7
12.2
(2.1)
30.8
2.3
10.0
(% of Net Sales)
22.5
23.3
19.9
25.7
25.5
25.5
Dep. & amortisation
84
109
151
109
115
120
EBIT
202
212
163
301
304
342
% chg
38.8
5.0
(23.0)
84.9
1.0
12.4
(% of Net Sales)
15.9
15.4
10.3
18.9
18.5
18.9
Interest & other charges
79
92
90
94
72
60
Other Income
15
25
42
26
26
26
(% of PBT)
10.8
15.8
26.5
11.2
10.1
8.4
Share in profit of asso.
-
-
-
-
-
-
Recurring PBT
143
156
159
233
259
308
% chg
61.4
9.5
1.8
46.6
11.0
19.0
Extraordinary exp./(Inc.)
(2.4)
0.2
PBT (reported)
145
156
159
233
259
308
Tax
45.0
47.1
39.4
62.4
64.7
77.1
(% of PBT)
31.0
30.1
24.8
26.7
25.0
25.0
PAT (reported)
100
109
120
171
194
231
Add: Share of earnings of asso.
0
0
-
-
-
-
Less: Minority interest (MI)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Prior period items
-
-
-
-
-
-
PAT after MI (reported)
100
109
120
171
194
231
ADJ. PAT
99
109
120
171
194
231
% chg
73.1
10.7
9.6
42.8
13.6
19.0
(% of Net Sales)
7.9
8.0
7.6
10.7
11.8
12.8
Basic EPS (`)
6.1
6.8
7.4
10.6
12.0
14.3
Fully Diluted EPS (`)
6.1
6.8
7.4
10.6
12.0
14.3
% chg
73.1
10.7
9.6
42.8
13.6
19.0
March 6, 2017
6
Dishman Pharmaceuticals | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Balance Sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity share capital
16
16
16
16
32
32
Share application money
4
4
-
-
-
-
Reserves & surplus
1,026
1,161
1,222
1,435
1,581
1,780
Shareholders funds
1,046
1,181
1,238
1,452
1,614
1,813
Minority interest
-
-
-
0
-
-
Total loans
800
880
836
943
850
650
Other Long Term Liab.
10
0
73
81
81
81
Long Term Provisions
43
64
97
-
-
-
Deferred tax liability
58
68
63
77
77
77
Total liabilities
1,956
2,193
2,307
2,553
2,622
2,621
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross block
1,686
1,946
2,019
2,233
2,383
2,408
Less: Acc. Depreciation
524
688
813
946
1,062
1,181
Net block
1,162
1,258
1,206
1,287
1,322
1,227
Capital work-in-progress
97
79
142
85
85
85
Goodwill
211
247
235
258
258
258
Long-Term Loans and Adv.
25
25
38
25
25
25
Investments
123
182
188
223
218
240
Current Assets
673
760
1,000
1,102
1,129
1,243
Cash
21
35
36
62
29
33
Loans & Advances
241
269
299
302
311
342
Other
581
457
665
738
789
868
Current liabilities
335
361
502
428
416
458
Net Current Assets
338
399
498
674
713
785
Non CA
-
2
-
-
-
-
Total Assets
1,956
2,193
2,307
2,553
2,622
2,621
March 6, 2017
7
Dishman Pharmaceuticals | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017E FY2018E
Profit before tax
145
156
159
233
259
308
Depreciation
84
109
151
109
115
120
(Inc)/Dec in Working Capital
(178)
63
(103)
(185)
(67)
(90)
Less: Other income
15
25
42
26
26
26
Direct taxes paid
(45)
(47)
(39)
(62)
(65)
(77)
Cash Flow from Operations
144
179
180
181
182
183
(Inc.)/Dec.in Fixed Assets
(101)
(242)
(136)
(158)
(150)
(25)
(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments
-
-
-
-
-
-
Other income
15
25
42
26
26
26
Cash Flow from Investing
(85)
(217)
(94)
(132)
(124)
1
Issue of Equity
-
-
-
-
-
-
Inc./(Dec.) in loans
(105)
92
62
17
(93)
(200)
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)
(11)
(11)
(19)
(32)
(32)
(32)
Others
54
(28)
(128)
(8)
34
52
Cash Flow from Financing
(62)
53
(85)
(23)
(91)
(180)
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash
(3)
14
1
26
(33)
4
Opening Cash balances
24
21
35
36
62
29
Closing Cash balances
21
35
36
62
29
33
March 6, 2017
8
Dishman Pharmaceuticals | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Key Ratio
Y/E March
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS)
36.3
32.8
29.9
21.0
18.4
15.5
P/CEPS
9.7
8.2
6.6
6.4
11.6
10.2
P/BV
3.4
3.0
2.9
2.5
2.2
2.0
Dividend yield (%)
0.5
0.5
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
EV/Sales
2.0
1.9
1.6
1.7
2.7
2.3
EV/EBITDA
9.0
8.2
8.3
6.5
10.5
9.1
EV / Total Assets
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.7
1.6
Per Share Data (`)
EPS (Basic)
6.1
6.8
7.4
10.6
12.0
14.3
EPS (fully diluted)
6.1
6.8
7.4
10.6
12.0
14.3
Cash EPS
22.8
27.0
33.5
34.7
19.2
21.7
DPS
1.2
1.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
Book Value
64.9
73.3
76.8
90.0
100.1
112.4
Dupont Analysis
EBIT margin
15.9
15.4
10.3
18.9
18.5
18.9
Tax retention ratio
69.0
69.9
75.2
73.3
75.0
75.0
Asset turnover (x)
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.7
ROIC (Post-tax)
7.3
7.3
5.7
8.8
9.0
9.9
Cost of Debt (Post Tax)
6.6
7.7
7.9
7.8
6.0
6.0
Leverage (x)
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.4
Operating ROE
7.8
7.0
4.2
9.4
10.6
11.6
Returns (%)
ROCE (Pre-tax)
10.4
10.2
7.2
11.8
11.8
13.0
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)
13.9
12.2
8.7
14.0
13.8
15.2
ROE
10.0
9.8
9.9
12.7
12.7
13.5
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.8
Block)
Inventory / Sales (days)
99
100
106
106
118
118
Receivables (days)
47
20
21
42
24
24
Payables (days)
46
34
36
44
38
32
WC cycle (ex-cash) (days)
85
90
93
95
144
145
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.3
Net debt to EBITDA
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.1
2.0
1.3
Int. Coverage (EBIT / Int.)
2.6
2.3
1.8
3.2
4.2
5.7
March 6, 2017
9
Dishman Pharmaceuticals | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement
Dishman Pharmaceuticals
1. Financial interest of research analyst or Angel or his Associate or his relative
No
2. Ownership of 1% or more of the stock by research analyst or Angel or associates or relatives
No
3. Served as an officer, director or employee of the company covered under Research
No
4. Broking relationship with company covered under Research
No
Ratings (Based on expected returns
Buy (> 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
over 12 months investment period):
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Sell (< -15)
March 6, 2017
10