3QFY2017 Result Update | Pharmaceutical
February 22, 2017
Cadila Healthcare
NEUTRAL
CMP
`440
Performance Highlights
Target Price
Investment Period
-
Y/E March (` cr)
3QFY2017 2QFY2017
% chg (qoq) 3QFY2016
% chg (yoy)
Net sales
2,250
2336
(3.7)
2268
(0.8)
Stock Info
Other income
78
40
93.3
123
(36.6)
Sector
Pharmaceutical
Gross profit
1350
1493
(9.6)
1507
(10.4)
Market Cap (` cr)
45,034
Operating profit
343
499
(31.4)
500
(31.5)
Net debt (` cr)
1,550
Adj. Net profit
282
338
(16.6)
431
(34.7)
Beta
0.8
Source: Company, Angel Research
52 Week High / Low
460 / 305
For 3QFY2017, Cadila Healthcare posted lower than expected results with sales
Avg. Daily Volume
92,837
at `2,250cr (v/s. `2,800cr expected) v/s. `2,268cr in 3QFY2016, a yoy de-
Face Value (`)
1
growth of 0.8%. The dip in sales was on the back of the US (`886.9cr, a yoy dip
BSE Sensex
28,762
of 17.2%). On the operating front, the EBITDA margin came in at 15.2% (v/s.
Nifty
8,908
22.1% expected) v/s. 22.0% in 3QFY2016. The GPM’s came in at 60% (v/s.
Reuters Code
CADI.BO
66.5% in 3QFY2016), which resulted in dip in OPM. The Adj. net profit came in
Bloomberg Code
[email protected]
at `282cr (v/s. `517cr expected) v/s. `431cr in 3QFY2016, a yoy de-growth of
34.7%. We remain Neutral.
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Results lower than expected: Sales at `2,250cr (v/s. `2,800cr expected) v/s.
Promoters
74.8
`2,268cr in 3QFY2016, posted a yoy de-growth of 0.8%. The dip in sales was on
MF / Banks / Indian Fls
9.4
the back of poor performance from the US (`886.9cr, a yoy dip of 17.2%). On
FII / NRIs / OCBs
10.2
the operating front, the EBITDA margin came in at 15.2% (v/s. 22.1% expected)
Indian Public / Others
5.6
vs. 22.0% in 3QFY2016. The GPM’s came in at 60% (v/s. 66.5% in 3QFY2016),
which resulted in dip in OPM. The Adj. net profit came in at `282cr (v/s. `517cr
expected) v/s. `431cr in 3QFY2016, a yoy de-growth of 34.7%.
Abs.(%)
3m 1yr 3yr
Sensex
10.8
21.3
38.9
Outlook and valuation: We expect Cadila’s net sales to post 15.2% CAGR to
Cadila
18.6
34.4
131.4
`12,569cr and EPS to report 13.5% CAGR to `19.2 over FY2016-18E. We
maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.
3-Year Daily Price Chart
Key financials (Consolidated)
500
Y E March (` cr)
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
400
Net sales
8,497
9,469
10,393
12,569
300
% chg
20.4
11.4
9.8
20.9
200
Net profit
1,159
1,524
1,340
1,964
100
% chg
41.5
31.5
(12.1)
46.6
0
EPS
11.3
14.9
13.1
19.2
EBITDA margin (%)
18.8
21.2
17.7
21.6
Source: Company, Angel Research
P/E (x)
38.8
29.5
33.6
22.9
RoE (%)
30.1
31.7
22.8
27.1
RoCE (%)
20.2
23.1
17.4
23.6
P/BV (x)
10.6
8.4
7.0
5.6
EV/Sales (x)
5.4
4.8
4.3
3.5
Sarabjit Kour Nangra
+91 22 39357600 Ext: 6806
EV/EBITDA (x)
28.8
22.7
24.4
16.0
[email protected]
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of February 21, 2017
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
1
Cadila Healthcare | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 3QFY2017 performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
3QFY2017
2QFY2017
% chg (qoq)
3QFY2016
% chg (yoy)
9MFY2017 9MFY2016
% chg
Net Sales
2,250
2,336
(3.7)
2,268
(0.8)
6,802
6,801
0.0
Other Income
78
40
93.3
123
(36.6)
205
367
(44.3)
Total Income
2,328
2,377
(2.1)
2,391
(2.7)
7,007
7,169
(2.3)
Gross profit
1350
1493
(9.6)
1507
(10.4)
4286
4433
(3.3)
Gross margin (%)
60.0
63.9
66.5
63.0
65.2
Operating profit
343
499
(31.4)
500
(31.5)
1291
1486
(13.2)
Operating Margin (%)
15.2
21.4
22.0
19.0
21.9
Financial Cost
7
19
(64.7)
12
(45.5)
35
37
(5.1)
Depreciation
90
86
3.9
74
21.2
261
216
20.8
PBT
324
435
(25.3)
537
(39.6)
1200
1601
(25.1)
Tax
50
107
(52.8)
91
(44.4)
254
240
5.7
Adj. PAT before
274
328
(16.4)
446
(38.6)
946
1361
(30.5)
Extra-ordinary item
Exceptional loss/(gain)
(0)
(9)
(1)
0
(3)
Minority
(8)
18
-
16
(30)
5
Reported PAT
282
338
(16.6)
431
(34.6)
975
1366
(28.6)
Adj. PAT
282
338
(16.6)
431
(34.7)
976
1369
(28.7)
EPS (`)
2.8
3.3
4.2
9.5
13.4
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 3QFY2017 - Actual vs. Angel estimates
(` cr)
Actual
Estimates
Variance
Net Sales
2,250
2,800
(19.7)
Operating profit
343
619
(44.6)
Tax
50
115
(56.1)
Net profit
282
517
(45.5)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Revenue lower than our expectation
In INR terms, the consolidated revenues came in at `2,250cr (v/s. `2,800cr
expected) v/s. `2,268cr in 3QFY2016, de-growth of 0.8% yoy, owing to the
pressure on the US generic market.
The Formulation business sales (`1,863cr, down 4.0% yoy), was mainly due to the
US (`886.9cr, 17.2% dip yoy), Indian Formulation (`796.8cr, a yoy growth
10.7%), Emerging market Formulation (`113cr, a yoy up 20.6%) and Latin
America formulation (`65.9cr, a yoy growth of 21.1%). The other Business &
Alliances (`438.9cr) grew by 16.2% yoy. Europe Formulation (`65.3cr, a yoy dip of
14.1%), Consumer Wellness (`111.3cr, a yoy growth of 0.2%), Animal Healthcare
(`113.4cr, a yoy growth of 44.4%), API (`105.3cr, a yoy growth of 25.7%) and
Alliances (`43.5cr, a yoy dip of 53.9%).
US revenues declined ~17.2% yoy, mainly on base business base, primarily due to
Loss of Bupropion sales and pricing pressure in Tamsulosin. The company
launched 1 new product in the US in 3QFY2017. Cumulatively the company has
received 107 ANDA approvals, till date. The management has guided for 8-9
additional ANDA approvals by Mar’2017. Additionally Cadila filed 30 ANDAs in
2QFY2017; cumulatively the company has > 200 pending ANDA’s in the US market.
LatAm (Latin America) business was the only bright spot along with the Emerging
markets as revenues increased by ~21%yoy to `65.9cr in 3QFY2017 and by
20.6% yoy to `1,139cr respectively.
February 22, 2017
2
Cadila Healthcare | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 3: Sales trend in the US and Europe
1,200
1,072
989
961
1,000
887
848
800
600
400
200
76
70
79
56
65
0
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
2QFY2017
3QFY2017
US
Europe
Source: Company, Angel Research
The growth in the domestic market (~49% of sales) was of 14.9% yoy, mainly led
by Animal Health & Others (`1,134cr), which grew by 44.4%; while formulations
(`796.8cr) grew by 10.7% yoy. API (`105.3cr), on the other hand, grew by 25.7%
yoy.
Exhibit 4: Sales trend in Domestic Formulation and Consumer Wellness Divisions
900
821
786
797
767
800
713
700
600
500
400
300
200
118
117
116
112
111
100
0
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
2QFY2017
3QFY2017
Domestic Formulation
Consumer division
Source: Company, Angel Research
OPM lower than expectation
On the operating front, the EBITDA margin came in at 15.2% (v/s.
22.1%
expected) vs. 22.0% in 3QFY2016. R&D expenditure, during the quarter, came in
at 9.8% (v/s. 10.4% of sales in 3QFY2016). The dip in the OPM, came on back of
the GPM coming at 60.0% (vs. 66.5% in 3QFY2016).
February 22, 2017
3
Cadila Healthcare | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 5: OPM trend
22.0
22.0
21.4
20.0
21.4
20.4
18.0
16.0
15.2
14.0
12.0
10.0
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
2QFY2017
3QFY2017
Source: Company, Angel Research
Net profit plunges 34.7% yoy: Consequently, the Adj. PAT came in at `282cr (v/s.
`517cr expected) v/s.
`281.6cr in 3QFY2016), yoy de-growth of
34.7%.
Moreover, the dip in the net profit was also impacted due to the lower other
income, which came in at `78.1cr (v/s. `123cr in 3QFY2016), a yoy dip of 36.6%.
Exhibit 6: Adjusted Net profit trend
500
431
450
388
400
356
338
350
282
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
3QFY2016
4QFY2016
1QFY2017
2QFY2017
3QFY2017
Source: Company, Angel Research
Concall takeaways
Specialty business to contribute ~30% of US sales in four years.
Moraiya remediation to start from February 2017.
20 ANDA approvals expected in FY2018 (excluding Moraiya plant).
Setynl sales are ~US$58mn and will be part of company’s sales for ~70 days
in 4QFY2017. Sentynl growth is expected to be ~25% yoy.
February 22, 2017
4
Cadila Healthcare | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Recommendation rationale
Strong domestic portfolio: Cadila is the fifth largest player in the domestic market
with sales of about `2,973cr in FY2016; the domestic market contributes ~39% to
its top-line. The company enjoys a leadership position in the CVS, GI, women
healthcare and respiratory segments, and has a sales force of 4,500 executives.
The company, on an aggressive front, launched more than 75 new products in
FY2014. During FY2009-14, the company reported a ~13% CAGR in its top-line
in the domestic formulation business.
Further, the company has a strong consumer division through its stake in Zydus
Wellness, which has premium brands such as Sugarfree, Everyuth and Nutralite
under its umbrella. This segment, which contributes ~4.7% of sales, registered a
growth of 3.2% during FY2016.
Going forward, the company expects the segment to grow at an above-industry
rate on the back of new product launches and field force expansion. In FY2014,
sales were lower; however, FY2016 witnessed a rebound. During FY2016-18E, we
expect the domestic segment to grow at a CAGR of 9.4%.
Exports on a strong footing: Cadila has a two-fold focus on exports, wherein it is
targeting developed as well as emerging markets, which contributed around 61%
to its FY2016 top-line. The company has established a formidable presence in the
developed markets of US, Europe (France and Spain) and Japan. In the US, the
company achieved critical scale of `3,393cr on the sales front in FY2016. The
growth in exports to the US along with other regions like Europe would be driven
by new product launches, going forward. Overall, exports are expected to post a
CAGR of 16.7% over FY2016-18E.
Outlook and valuation
We expect Cadila’s net sales to post 15.2% CAGR to `12,569cr and EPS to report
13.5% CAGR to `19.2 over FY2016-18E. We maintain our Neutral rating on the
stock.
Exhibit 7: Key Assumptions
Key assumptions
FY2017E
FY2018E
Domestic growth (%)
9.0
13.0
Exports growth (%)
10.0
25.7
Growth in employee expenses (%)
16.8
13.5
Operating margins (excl tech. know-how fees) (%)
17.7
21.6
Capex (` cr)
650
650
Source: Company, Angel Research
February 22, 2017
5
Cadila Healthcare | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 8: One-year forward PE band
500
400
300
200
100
0
Price
7x
14x
21x
28x
Source: Company
Company background: Cadila Healthcare‘s operations range across API,
formulations, animal health products and cosmeceuticals. The group has global
operations spread across USA, Europe, Japan, Brazil, South Africa and 25 other
emerging markets. Having already achieved the US$1bn sales mark in 2011, the
company aims to be a research-driven pharmaceutical company by 2020.
Exhibit 9: Recommendation Summary
Company
Reco
CMP Tgt. price Upside
FY2018E
FY16-18E
FY2018E
(`)
(`)
% PE (x) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
CAGR in EPS (%) RoCE (%) RoE (%)
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
593
-
-
19.5
2.6
12.2
(10.8)
27.5
25.3
Aurobindo Pharma Buy
686
877
27.9
14.5
2.4
10.1
18.1
22.5
26.1
Cadila Healthcare Neutral
440
-
-
22.9
3.6
16.6
13.5
23.6
27.1
Cipla
Sell
593
465
(21.5)
24.2
2.7
16.3
14.2
12.2
13.9
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
2,899
-
-
22.1
2.6
11.4
(2.7)
15.3
15.2
Dishman Pharma Neutral
229
-
-
20.3
2.3
10.0
13.3
10.3
10.9
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
2,683
-
-
44.5
6.8
32.8
16.9
37.5
34.5
Indoco Remedies Reduce
272
240
(11.8)
17.0
2.0
10.9
33.2
19.1
20.1
Ipca labs
Accumulate
554
613
10.7
28.1
1.9
12.7
36.5
8.8
9.4
Lupin
Buy
1,469
1,809
23.1
21.2
4.0
13.1
17.2
24.4
20.9
Sanofi India
Neutral
4,186
-
-
24.3
3.2
17.4
22.2
25.6
28.8
Sun Pharma
Buy
673
847
25.8
19.1
4.0
12.2
26.5
18.9
20.1
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year ending
February 22, 2017
6
Cadila Healthcare | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Profit & Loss statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
Gross sales
6,285
7,208
8,658
9,660
10,589
12,806
Less: Excise duty
129
148
161
190
196
237
Net sales
6,155
7,060
8,497
9,469
10,393
12,569
Other operating income
203
164
154
368
368
368
Total operating income
6,358
7,224
8,651
9,838
10,762
12,938
% chg
20.8
13.6
19.8
13.7
9.4
20.2
Total expenditure
5,232
6,024
6,896
7,457
8,552
9,850
Net raw materials
2,320
2,714
3,197
3,277
3,846
4,274
Other mfg costs
387
443
534
595
653
790
Personnel
903
1,071
1,209
1,334
1,559
1,770
Other
1,622
1,796
2,107
2,252
2,494
3,017
EBITDA
923
1,036
1,601
2,012
1,842
2,719
% chg
1.4
12.3
54.6
25.6
-8.5
47.7
(% of Net Sales)
15.0
14.7
18.8
21.2
17.7
21.6
Dep. & amortisation
183
201
287
302
393
439
EBIT
740
835
1,314
1,710
1,448
2,280
% chg
(1.7)
12.8
57.4
30.1
(15.3)
57.5
(% of Net Sales)
12.0
11.8
15.5
18.1
13.9
18.1
Interest & other charges
169
90
68
49
84
84
Other income
37
51
55
94
94
94
(% of PBT)
5
5
4
4
5
4
Recurring PBT
811
959
1,456
2,124
1,826
2,658
% chg
2.1
18.3
51.8
45.9
(14.0)
45.6
Extraordinary exp./(Inc.)
-
17
10
2
-
-
PBT (reported)
811
942
1,445
2,124
1,826
2,658
Tax
119.5
106.0
259.4
571.1
456.5
664.6
(% of PBT)
14.7
11.3
17.9
26.9
25.0
25.0
PAT (reported)
692
836
1,186
1,553
1,370
1,994
Less: Minority int. (MI)
36.4
32.6
35.5
30.0
30.0
30.0
PAT after MI (reported)
655
804
1,151
1,523
1,340
1,964
ADJ. PAT
655
819
1,159
1,524
1,340
1,964
% chg
0.8
25.0
41.5
31.5
(12.1)
46.6
(% of Net Sales)
10.6
11.4
13.5
16.1
16.6
15.9
Adj.Basic EPS (`)
6.4
8.0
11.3
14.9
16.9
19.2
Adj. Fully Diluted EPS (`)
6.4
8.0
11.3
14.9
16.9
19.2
% chg
0.8
25.0
41.5
31.5
13.4
13.5
February 22, 2017
7
Cadila Healthcare | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Balance Sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity share capital
102
102
102
102
102
102
Reserves & Surplus
2,938
3,337
4,149
5,250
6,302
7,978
Shareholders funds
3,040
3,439
4,252
5,352
6,404
8,081
Minority interest
119
144
169
135
165
195
Total loans
2,681
2,265
2,334
2,107
2,107
2,107
Other Long Term Liabilities
47
55
43
61
45
46
Long Term Provisions
64
76
110
77
78
79
Deferred tax liability
100
96
59
88
121
122
Total liabilities
6,053
6,075
6,966
7,820
8,798
10,505
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross block
4,104
3,756
4,353
5,296
5,946
6,596
Less: Acc. depreciation
1,358
1,540
1,827
2,130
2,523
2,962
Net block
2,746
2,214
2,526
3,166
3,423
3,634
Capital Work-in-Progress
248
892
892
892
892
892
Goodwill
862
908
733
733
733
733
Investments
21
87
154
266
266
266
Long Term Loans and Adv.
411
495
637
756
663
728
Current assets
3,191
3,391
4,105
4,205
5,635
7,656
Cash
582
549
670
695
1,617
2,866
Loans & advances
279
341
334
335
336
337
Other
2,330
2,501
3,102
3,174
3,682
4,453
Current liabilities
1,426
1,912
2,081
2,196
2,814
3,403
Net Current assets
1,765
1,480
2,024
2,008
2,821
4,253
Mis. Exp. not written off
-
-
-
(1)
-
-
Total assets
6,053
6,075
6,966
7,820
8,798
10,505
February 22, 2017
8
Cadila Healthcare | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017E FY2018E
Profit before tax
811
942
1,445
2,124
1,826
2,658
Depreciation
183
201
287
302
393
439
(Inc)/Dec in Working Cap.
(223)
168
(565)
(78)
202
(247)
Less: Other income
37
51
55
94
94
94
Direct taxes paid
119
106
259
571
457
665
Cash Flow from Operations
614
1,154
853
1,683
1,871
2,091
(Inc.)/Dec.in Fixed Assets
(860)
(296)
(597)
(943)
(650)
(650)
(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments
3
(65)
(68)
(112)
-
-
Other income
37
51
55
94
94
94
Cash Flow from Investing
(820)
(310)
(609)
(960)
(556)
(556)
Issue of Equity
-
-
-
-
-
-
Inc./(Dec.) in loans
382
(397)
91
(242)
(16)
2
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)
(175)
(216)
(287)
(287)
(287)
(287)
Others
115
(264)
74
(168)
(90)
(1)
Cash Flow from Financing
322
(877)
(122)
(697)
(393)
(286)
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash
116
(33)
121
25
922
1,249
Opening Cash balances
467
582
549
670
695
1,617
Closing Cash balances
582
549
670
695
1,617
2,866
February 22, 2017
9
Cadila Healthcare | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Key Ratios
Y/E March
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS)
68.7
55.0
38.8
29.5
33.6
22.9
P/CEPS
53.6
44.0
31.1
24.6
25.9
18.7
P/BV
14.8
13.1
10.6
8.4
7.0
5.6
Dividend yield (%)
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
EV/Sales
7.6
6.6
5.4
4.8
4.3
3.5
EV/EBITDA
50.6
44.7
28.8
22.7
24.4
16.0
EV / Total Assets
7.7
7.6
6.6
5.8
5.1
4.1
Per Share Data (`)
EPS (Basic)
6.4
8.0
11.3
14.9
13.1
19.2
EPS (fully diluted)
6.4
8.0
11.3
14.9
13.1
19.2
Cash EPS
8.2
10.0
14.2
17.9
17.0
23.5
DPS
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
Book Value
29.7
33.6
41.5
52.3
62.6
78.9
Dupont Analysis
EBIT margin
12.0
11.8
15.5
18.1
13.9
18.1
Tax retention ratio
85.3
88.7
82.1
73.1
75.0
75.0
Asset turnover (x)
1.2
1.3
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.7
ROIC (Post-tax)
12.8
13.8
18.6
19.4
15.7
23.8
Cost of Debt (Post Tax)
5.8
3.2
2.4
1.6
3.0
3.0
Leverage (x)
0.7
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.0
Operating ROE
17.7
20.1
25.8
25.2
17.9
23.8
Returns (%)
ROCE (Pre-tax)
13.2
13.8
20.2
23.1
17.4
23.6
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)
19.5
20.6
31.3
33.6
26.2
39.4
ROE
23.3
25.3
30.1
31.7
22.8
27.1
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gr. Block)
1.8
1.8
2.1
2.0
1.9
2.1
Inventory / Sales (days)
66
69
61
56
69
78
Receivables (days)
54
57
57
45
55
63
Payables (days)
42
55
46
45
50
53
WC (ex-cash) (days)
66
53
48
49
43
37
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity
0.7
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.1
(0.1)
Net debt to EBITDA
2.3
1.7
1.0
0.7
0.3
(0.3)
Int. Coverage (EBIT / Int.)
4.4
9.3
19.4
35.2
17.2
27.1
February 22, 2017
10
Cadila Healthcare | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
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/dealing in securities Market. Angel or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public
offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months.
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Disclosure of Interest Statement
Cadila Healthcare
1. Financial interest of research analyst or Angel or his Associate or his relative
No
2. Ownership of 1% or more of the stock by research analyst or Angel or associates or relatives
No
3. Served as an officer, director or employee of the company covered under Research
No
4. Broking relationship with company covered under Research
No
Ratings (Based on expected returns
Buy (> 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
over 12 months investment period):
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Sell (< -15)
February 22, 2017
11